Office of Science NCSX Project Review of NCSX April 8-10, 2008 Cost and Schedule Ron Strykowsky

SC Project Review of NCSX, April 8-10, 2008Ron Strykowsky - page 1

Office of Science NCSX Project Review

of

NCSX

April 8-10, 2008

Cost and Schedule

Ron Strykowsky


Topics

• Baseline Formulation Process

• Basis and Assumptions

• Results•Cost

•Contingency

•Schedule

•Staffing

• Project Control Processes

• EIR Summary Assessments

• Summary


Baseline Formulation Process

• Job Managers Reviewed and Updated WAF’s (realistic not best case)•Additional scope per August Lehman review recommendations•Critically reviewed all job estimates to reflect current design maturity & experiences to date

• Internal Engineering Department Review for Critical and Large Job Estimates• Assigned labor resources to tasks • Updated overhead and labor rates• Updated resource Loaded Schedule

•Focus on critical path optimization•Off critical path scope (maximize free float)•Fit Program funding targets

• Expanded and quantified project risks• Contingency analysis process (probabilistic approach)• March 13-14 PU Review• Submit New Baseline Proposal to OFES March 26• Office of Science Review April 8-10• Submit Baseline Change Proposal to OECM April 21• External Independent Review May 20-22

•The WAF’s are the basis of all estimates•The resource loaded schedule is the master schedule and cost estimate data base


Work scope organized and documented in the Work Breakdown Structure


The WAF is the basis of all estimates

Work Authorization Forms (WAF’s)– Disciplined and uniform approach for all work – Excel based spreadsheet including;

• Table 0 – Work scope description and approvals• Table I – Design Labor (usually in man-hours or FTEs) – (priced in

Primavera)• Table II – Materials and supplies - usually direct procurements of materials

and components (direct dollars) (priced in Primavera) • Table III – Fabrication and assembly operations (combination of labor hours

and material and supplies needed to support these operations)• Table IV – Estimate uncertainty and Risk

– Job Manager assessment of design maturity/complexity and identification of residual risks that should be included in the Risk Register

• Basis of estimate categorized and summarized in each WAFCATEGORIZATION CODES:

1 - National Standards2 - Engineering Judgement/Experience3 - Estimates/Data from External Sources (e.g., W7X, ATF, etc.)4 - Previous PPPL/ORNL Experieince (e.g., TFTR, NSTX, PLT, etc.)5 - Prototype Data/Test Results6 - Catelogue Price/Vendor Quote7 - Placed Contracts8 - Actual experience for NCSX Work9 - Other


Key Planning Basis and Assumptions

• ETC forward from February 1st, 2008• Cost Incurred from April 1, 2003 (MIE project inception)

• Every Job Reviewed, most re-estimated• GPP and Infrastructure not part of MIE project. (Shown in the resource

loaded schedule. Progress coordinated and tracked by Erik Perry)

• Program BA constraints • Institutional Overhead Rates (CAS Compliant)

• Standard work week 8hrs/day 5 days/ week (Exceptions; Field period assy (sta3

FPA#3, station 5, and Final Machine assy make use of select 2 shift operations). No overtime or

Saturday work planned. Overtime and Saturday used to maintain schedule.

• Holidays• Contingency Allocation by fiscal year (commensurate with risk & cost

uncertainty)

• Task durations - more detail on critical path and near term


• Based on deliverables and/or tasks identified by the job managers• Input varied from resource loaded schedules to deliverables and resource

estimate only

• Established tasks, internal milestones (PDR’s, FDR’s, contract awards)

• Task durations based on realistic resource loadings & crew sizes• Logically linked (2,170 tasks, 2700 links, 2900 individual resource

loadings)• Non-critical path tasks scheduled within BA constraints with free

float to critical path• Schedule iterated based on

• Optimizing the critical path. (use of 2 shift operations, floor space for

assembly tasks, crane utilization studies)• Maximizing free float for non critical path tasks (ie procurements)• Front end loading system designs • Annual contingency set-asides• Resource leveling exercises to optimize techs and key engineers (did not

impact critical path or cost)

Scheduling - Process


Cost Basis - Resource types and Rates

• Resource Types, labor and overhead rates

Overhead and escalation rates

Labor Skills (hourly rates)

Non-Labor Resource


Contingency - Process

• Structured process - probabilistic risk analysis based (Monte Carlo Analysis)

• Objective was to assess and analyze all areas of uncertainty and risk that

might affect the cost and schedule estimates

• Project Risk Registry key input (grown from 36 to 88 risks & monitored monthly)

• Job Manager and Project Team input

• Cost and schedule contingencies quantified

• Contingency Allowance Range – 95%, 90% and 80% confidence levels

analyzed

Chris Gruber to provide comprehensive analysis


Contingency – Results

95% Confidence 90% Confidence 80% Confidence

Base Schedule ETC 47 months

Schedule Contingency 21.1 mos. 19.0 mos. 16.3 mos.

Base ETC Cost = $61.8 M

Cost Contingency $24.4 M $22.4 M $20.0 M

39% 36% 32%


Results – Cost ReconciliationNCSX Project TEC Budget

WBS

Baseline (ECP-31 DOE Directed re-baseline

April 2005) Cost to Date (1/31/08) ETC from 2/1/08Proposed Baseline EAC

MARCH 2008 Increase

12 Vacuum Vessel $9,531 $9,743 $1,429 $11,172 $1,641 17%13 Conventional Coils $4,790 $3,830 $4,256 $8,086 $3,296 69%14 Modular Coils $28,091 $38,172 $2,563 $40,735 $12,643 45%15 Structures $1,413 $550 $1,528 $2,078 $665 47%16 Coil Services $1,140 $3 $1,085 $1,088 -$52 -5%17 Cryostat & Base Support Structure $1,361 $489 $1,497 $1,986 $625 46%18 Field Period Assembly $5,430 $5,540 $14,412 $19,952 $14,522 267%19 Stellarator Core Mgmt & Integr $2,752 $2,317 $2,255 $4,572 $1,820 66%

1 Stellarator Core $54,508 $60,644 $29,024 $89,668 $35,160 65%

2 Auxiliary Systems $783 $348 $1,018 $1,366 $582 74%

3 Diagnostics $1,143 $1,131 $811 $1,942 $798 70%

4 Electrical Power Systems $3,301 $615 $2,718 $3,334 $32 1%

5 I&C Systems $2,050 $33 $2,099 $2,132 $81 4%

6 Facility Systems $691 $24 $2,423 $2,447 $1,756 254%

7 Test Cell Prep & Machine Assy

$4,413 $708 $8,577 $9,285 $4,871 110%81 Project Management and Oversight $4,509 $4,025 $4,814 $8,839 $4,331 96%82 Project Engineering $4,885 $6,500 $7,608 $14,107 $9,223 189%84 Project Physics $470 $470 $470 $0 0%85 Integrated Systems Testing $1,189 $0 $795 $795 -$394 -33%

8 Project Oversight & Support $11,052 $10,995 $13,216 $24,211 $13,159 119%

Allocations $1,577 $1,792 $1,928 $3,720 $2,143 136%

Subtotal $79,521 $76,290 $61,814 $138,104 $58,582 74%

Contingency $12,804 $22,410DCMA $75 $75 $75

TOTAL $92,401 $76,365 $61,814 $160,589 $68,188 74%

Planned Finish = Feb-09 Jan-12 35 mo. IncreaseCD-4 = Jul-09 Aug-13 49 mo. IncreaseSchedule Contingency = 5 mo. 19 mo.


Results – Cost Detail by Job

JOB ETC (bottoms-up) from 2/1/08

JOB ETC (bottoms-up) from 2/1/08

Job: 1204 - VV Sys Procurements (nonVVSA)-DUDEK 221 Job: 2101 - Fueling Systems-BLANCHARD 338

Job: 1260 NB Transition Ducts- GORANSON 567 Job: 2201 - Vacuum Pumping Systems-BLANCHARD 679

Job: 1270 - Heater Control System-GORANSON 642 Job: 3101 - Magnetic Diagnostics-STRATTON 411

Job: 1302 - PF Design -KALISH 91 Job: 3601 - Edge Divertor Diagnostics-STRATTON 30

Job: 1352 - PF Coil Procurement-CHRZANOWSKI 1,638 Job: 3801 - Electron Beam Mapping-STRATTON 258

Job: 1353 - CS Structure Procurement-DAHLGREN 357 Job: 3901 - Diagnostics sys Integration-STRATTON 112

Job: 1354 - Trim Coil Design &Procurement-KALISH 1,433 Job: 4101 - AC Power-RAMAKRISHNAN 154

Job: 1355 - WBS 13 I&C Proc and Coil Assy-KALISH 110 Job: 4301 - DC Systems-RAMAKRISHNAN 579

Job: 1361 - TF Fabrication-KALISH 628 Job: 4401 - Control & Protection-RAMAKRISHNAN 1,080

Job: 1408 - MC Winding Supplies-CHRZANOWSKI 124 Job: 4501 - Power Sys Dsn & Integr-RAMAKRISHNAN 905

Job: 1416 - Mod Coil Type AB Fnl Dsn-WILLIAMSON 140 Job: 5101 - Network and Fiber-SICHTA 221

Job: 1421 - Mod Coil Interface Design-WILLIAMSON 28 Job: 5201 - I&C Systems-SICHTA 412

Job: 1429 - MC Interface R&D-DUDEK 4 Job: 5301 - Data Acquisition-SICHTA 166

Job: 1431 - Mod. Coil Interface Hardware-DUDEK 1,074 Job: 5401 - Facility Timing -SICHTA 358

Job: 1451 - Mod Coil Winding-CHRZANOWSKI 909 Job: 5501 - Real Time Control -SICHTA 502

Job: 1459 - Mod Coil Fabr.Punch List-CHRZANOWSKI 283 Job: 5601 - Central Safety &Interlock Sys-SICHTA 372

Job: 1501 - Coil Structures Design-DAHLGREN 89 Job: 5801 - Central I&C Integr& Oversight-SICHTA 67

Job: 1550 - Coil Struct. Procurement -DAHLGREN 1,439 Job: 6101 - Water Systems-DUDEK 112

Job: 1601 - Coil Services Design-GORANSON 1,085 Job: 6201 - Cryogenic Syst-RAFTOPOLOUS 1,568

Job: 1701 - Cryostat Design-RAFTOPOLOUS 578 Job: 6301 - Utility Systems-DUDEK 109

Job: 1751 - Cryostat Procurement-RAFTOPOLOUS 550 Job: 6401 - PFC/VV Htng/Cooling(bakeout)- KALISH 634

Job: 1702 - Base Support Struct Design-DAHLGREN 139 Job: 7301 - Platform Design -PERRY 213

Job: 1752 - Base Support Proc-DAHLGREN 230 Job: 7401 - TC Prep & Mach Assy Planning-PERRY 2,323

Job: 1802 - FP Assy Oversight&Support-VIOLA 3,826 Job: 7501 - Construction Support Crew-PERRY 1,325

Job: 1803/1805- FPA Tooling/Constr-BROWN/DUDEK 994 Job: 7503 - Machine Assembly (station 6)-PERRY 4,317

Job: 1806 - FP Assembly specs-COLE 360 Job: 7601 - Tooling Design & Fabrication-PERRY 399

Job:1810-Field Period Assy -Station 1 2 3 VIOLA 7,343 Job: 8101 - Project Management &Control-REJ 4,160

Job: 1815 - Field Period Assy Station 5 1,888 Job: 8102 - NCSX MIE Management ORNL-HARRIS 654

Job: 1901 - Stellarator Core Mngtt&Integr-COLE 2,255 Job: 8202 - Engr Mgmt & Sys Eng Support-HEITZENROEDER 3,254

Job: 8203 - Design Integration-BROWN 2,581

Job: 8204 - Systems Analysis-BROOKS 1,032

Job: 8205 - Dimensional Control Coordin-ELLIS 542

Job: 8215 Plant Design-PERRY 200

Job: 8501 - Integrated Systems Testing-GENTILE 795

Job: 8998 - Allocations-STRYKOWSKY 1,928


Results – Cost/Percent CompletionDesign Completion

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 - StellaratorCore

2 - AuxiliarySystems

3 - Diagnostics 4 - ElectricalPower

Systems

5 - I&CSystems

6 - FacilitySystems

Design Completion

0%

10%20%

30%

40%50%

60%

70%

80%90%

100%

12 - VacuumVessel

13 -Conventional

Coils

14 - ModularCoils

15 -Structures

16 - CoilServices

17 - Cryostat& BaseSupport

Structure

18 - FieldPeriod

Assembly

Project Completion Analysis

Design R&D Procure Fab & AssyMgt &

Oversight TOTAL

12 Vacuum Vessel Spent $k) $1,641 $1,787 $6,315 $0 $9,743Total ($k) $1,864 $1,787 $7,305 $216 $11,172

13 Conventional Coils Spent $k) $1,278 $0 $2,016 $536 $3,830Total ($k) $1,665 $0 $5,670 $751 $8,086

14 Modular Coils Spent $k) $6,297 $5,454 $12,938 $13,483 $38,172Total ($k) $6,461 $5,456 $13,963 $14,855 $40,735

15 Structures Spent $k) $550 $0 $0 $0 $550Total ($k) $639 $0 $1,427 $12 $2,0784

16 Coil Services Spent $k) $3 $0 $0 $0 $3Total ($k) $392 $24 $493 $179 $1,088

17 Cryostat & Base Support Structure Spent $k) $489 $0 $0 $0 $489Total ($k) $1,206 $0 $780 $0 $1,986

18 Field Period Assembly Spent $k) $1,439 $0 $7 $4,094 $5,540Total ($k) $2,520 $0 $362 $17,070 $19,952

1 Stellarator Core Spent $k) $11,697 $7,241 $21,276 $18,113 $58,327Total ($k) $14,747 $7,267 $30,000 $33,083 $85,097

79% 100% 71% 55% 69%

2 Auxiliary Systems Spent $k) $348 $0 $0 $0 $348Total ($k) $784 $0 $215 $367 $1,366

44% - 0% 0% 25%

3 Diagnostics Spent $k) $565 $0 $0 $566 $1,131Total ($k) $938 $0 $68 $936 $1,942

60% - 0% 60% 58%

4 Electrical Power Systems Spent $k) $615 $0 $0 $0 $615Total ($k) $1,369 $0 $216 $1,749 $3,334

45% - 0% 0% 18%

5 I&C Systems Spent $k) $33 $0 $0 $0 $33Total ($k) $818 $0 $624 $690 $2,132

4% - 0% 0% 2%

6 Facility Systems Spent $k) $24 $0 $0 $0 $24Total ($k) $896 $104 $722 $725 $2,447

3% 0% 0% 0% 1%

7 Test Cell Prep & Machine Assy Spent $k) $0 $0 $0 $708 $708Total ($k) $0 $0 $367 $8,918 $9,285

- - - 8% 8%Sub-TOTAL Spent $k) $13,282 $7,241 $21,276 $19,387 $61,186

Total ($k) $19,552 $7,371 $32,212 $46,468 $105,603

% complete 68% 98% 66% 42% 58%

19 & 8Stellarator Core Mgnt/Integration & Project management & Engr Spent $k) $0 $0 $0 $0 $15,179 $15,179

Total ($k) $0 $0 $0 $0 $32,578 $32,578

Grand Total Spent $k) $13,282 $7,241 $21,276 $19,387 $15,179 $76,365Total ($k) $19,552 $7,371 $32,212 $46,468 $32,578 $138,179

% complete 68% 98% 66% 42% 55%


Results – Program BA Profile

•Delayed research start•Contingency distribution tempered by maximizing non-critical path free float (i.e. provide margin for vendor delays)

FUNDING PROFILE2003-07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

TOTAL PROGRAM 16.6 20.3 20.8 38.7 52.3 52.8

Research,Ops, & upgrades 0.7 0.7 0.7 16.6 43.7 52.8

MIE Project 74.2 15.9 19.6 20.1 22.1 8.6 -

MIE Project by Institution 72.5 15.9 19.6 20.1 22.1 8.6 - (contingency included in PPPL, ORNL lines) - 2.7 3.0 10.1 6.5

(contingency as % of BCWS) 16% 18% 84% 318%

PPPL 1.6 14.1 18.1 19.1 21.2 8.3 - ORNL 0.2 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.3

carryover


Results – Schedule (Summary)

•Critical path through field period assembly, final machine assembly and start-up operations•Major procurement of components as well as ancillary system have ample schedule margin (months off critical path)


Critical Procurements Well Off Critical Path

Stellarator Core Critical Procurements Schedule Margin

job ProcurementEstimated Fabr

Lead Time (mos.)Months off critical path schedule margin

1260 Neutral Beam Transition Ducts 12 8.3 + 69%

1361 TF Coils (10 left) 6.5 23.2 357%

1352 PF Coils 16 14.5 91%

1354 Trim Coils 6 12 200%

1353 Central Solenoid Support structure 6 7.3 + 122%

1550 Coil Support Structure 5 8.7 + 174%

1451 Last Modular Coil (3 reminaining) 5 4.4 88%

1601 Coil Services -Lead stubs & LN manifolds 4.3 11 256%

1601 Coil Services -Cables 6 16 267%

1752 Base Support Structure 8 8.4 + 105%

1751 Cryostat 13.8 5.5 40%

1803 Station 5 Fixtures 5 11.4 228%

1803 Station 6 Fixtures 7 9.3 133%


Results – Milestones

• Milestones provide good metric of schedule progress• Distribution of milestones reasonable

Milestone

Number P3 id Activity description Early finish

DOE MILESTONE

34 TRIM-101 ** Trim Coil PDR ** 12-Mar-08 Mar-0835 TRIM-221 ** Trim Coil + Structure FDR ** 28-Apr-08 Jun-0836 1702-525M Base Support Structure FDR 30-Apr-08 Jul-0837 141-036 PF Coils Awarded 30-May-08 Aug-0838 TRIM-250 AWARD TRIM COIL PROCUREMENT 10-Jun-08 Sep-0839 P3-171VM COMPLETE VPI OF 18th MOD COIL 28-Aug-08 Nov-0840 451-2-3 Power system - PDR 22-Sep-08 Dec-0841 1351-195X ALL TF COILS DELIVERED 15-Oct-08 Jan-0942 162-036.9 Award Coil Support Structure 2-Oct-08 Feb-0943 1803-605M Station 6 Specification & Assy Drawings Complete 2-Oct-08 Mar-0944 S21-11.07M Complete 1st MCHP Assy (Sta 2) 4-Nov-08 May-0945 TRIM-270M Trim Coils for FPA #1 Delivered 8-Dec-08 Jun-0946 1701-100M Cryostat- CDR 23-Dec-08 Jul-0947 2-3-11.09M Complete 3rd MCHP Assy (Sta.2) 30-Mar-09 Oct-0948 162-037M Deliver Coil Structure components 4-Mar-09 Oct-0949 1352-145M PF 5&6 Lower Delivered 23-Mar-09 Dec-0950 S31-10.02M Complete 1st MC-VV Assy (Sta 3) 22-May-09 Jan-1051 S51-14.03M Complete 1st Field Period Assy (Sat. 5) 12-Nov-09 May-1052 451-202.2 Power systems C-Site - FDR 27-Oct-09 Aug-1053 S32-10.02M Complete 2nd MC-VV Assy (Sta 3) 5-Jan-10 Sep-1054 1701-141 Cryostat- FDR 18-Dec-09 Oct-1055 S33-10.02M Complete 3rd MC-VV Assy (Sta 3) 24-Mar-10 Dec-1056 7501-10.4M Complete Base Support Structure Assembly 18-Mar-10 Feb-1157 S52-14.03M Complete 2nd Field Period Assy. (Sta.5) 18-Jun-10 Mar-1158 7503-150 FPA-3 Installed on sleds 16-Aug-10 Jun-1159 431-275M C-site DC Systems Installed 3-Aug-10 Jun-1160 380-135M E-beam mapping apparatus ready for Installation 12-Jan-11 Oct-1161 7503-412M Move FPA's & spacers together/chk fitup complete 12-Jan-11 Nov-1162 R56-70M Compl Central Safety&Interlock Sys Pre-ops Tests 17-Feb-11 Feb-1263 S-6-15.04M Vacuum Vessel Welding complete (3 FP's) 22-Apr-11 Jul-1264 7503-250 Begin Vac Vsl Pumpdown 8-Jul-11 Oct-1265 S-6-22.11M ALL PF Coils Installed 17-Aug-11 Dec-1266 7503-330 Begin Cryostat Installation 23-Sep-11 Feb-1367 730.125 PSO Operational Readiness Assessment 7-Nov-11 Apr-1368 8501-304 Begin Start-up Testing 14-Nov-11 May-1369 730.8200M Cooldown of Machine 21-Nov-11 May-1370 8501-110 NCSX Startup Complete 5-Jan-12 Aug-13

1-Mar-0831-Mar-0830-Apr-08

31-May-0830-Jun-0831-Jul-08

30-Aug-0829-Sep-0830-Oct-0829-Nov-0830-Dec-0829-Jan-091-Mar-09

31-Mar-0930-Apr-09

31-May-0930-Jun-0931-Jul-09


31-Mar-1030-Apr-10

31-May-1030-Jun-1031-Jul-10


31-Mar-1130-Apr-11

31-May-1130-Jun-1131-Jul-11

30-Aug-1129-Sep-1130-Oct-1129-Nov-1130-Dec-1129-Jan-1229-Feb-1230-Mar-1229-Apr-12

30-May-1229-Jun-1230-Jul-12

29-Aug-1228-Sep-1229-Oct-1228-Nov-1229-Dec-1228-Jan-1328-Feb-1330-Mar-1329-Apr-13

30-May-1329-Jun-1330-Jul-13

29-Aug-13

34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

Milestone Number

Mo

nth

Early finish

DOE MILESTONE


Results – Resource Loaded Schedule

Resource skill and hours (from

WAF)

Cost (= hours x rates)

Total float in working days (~1 month = 21 days)Planning assumption: 1

shift per day or 2 shifts per day


Technician Requirements

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Computer Technicians

Electrical Technicians

Mechancial Technicians

Total Technicians

Staffing Requirements- Technicians

• Staffing requirements achievable and being satisfied

TFTR D&D manpower profile for comparison

Current level


Staffing Requirements- Engrs & Designers

TOTAL DESIGNERS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

current staff = 10

staff as of August 2007 = 8

TOTAL Electrical ENGINEERS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19current staff = 19


TOTAL EA Engineers

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18current staff = 18


TOTAL FO&M ENGINEERS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

current staff = 17


Needs being met with new hires to provide depth & backup


Staffing Requirements- ORNL & Metrology

ORNL Management/Engrs/Designers

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

PPPL Metrology Staff

0

2

4

6

8

10


Project Controls Systems Implemented

• August 2007 Proposed Baseline used as interim baseline for tracking• Weekly Project Meeting

– Safety– Weekly look-ahead schedule (RLM led discussion)– Follow-up actions

• Monthly Project performance assessment meetings─ Schedule progress─ Level 2 & 3 milestones─ Cost and Staffing─ Issues─ Risk Registry─ ETC changes

• Monthly Reporting– Management summary overview– Cost performance (EVMS) reports

– Variance analysis at job level– Risk Registry– Trending (performance, contingency, ETC)– Milestones– Critical Path– RLM Prepared variance analysis (with help of Job Managers)

• Monthly Director's Office and Princeton University Review• Customer meetings (IPT, Weekly, Quarterly)• 6-month bottoms-up ETC• Change Control

– Engineering Change Proposals (ECP) – 5 processed since August 2008 (technical only)


EIR Summary Assessments

1. Resource loaded Schedule• Organized by WBS (refer to WBS and WBS Dictionary)• Resource estimate loading based on detail WAF (see detailed

WAF packages).• Estimates basis; National Standards, Engineering Judgement/Experience,

Estimates/Data from External Sources (e.g., W7X, ATF, etc.), Previous PPPL/ORNL Experience (e.g., TFTR, NSTX, PLT, etc.), Prototype Data/Test Results, Catalogue Price/Vendor Quote, Placed Contracts, Actual experience for NCSX Work

• Task durations based on realistic manpower loadings and crew sizes. Balance of task durations based on reasonable loadings Schedule detail commensurate with schedule criticality (e.g. wbs 18 job 1810. minimum task duration 1 day).

• Proposed baseline BCWS and contingency profile consistent with anticipated funding levels.

• Shows estimate detail and priced cost estimate (see resource loaded schedule)


EIR Summary Assessments (continued)

2. Key Project Cost and Schedule Assumptions

• Standard 8 hour/day 5 day/week work assumed except where 2 shift operations called out in resource loaded schedule. (see slide 10 & 11)

• Institutional overhead and labor rates utilized (see slide 12)• Contingency quantified based on estimate uncertainty and risk

using Monte Carlo simulation plus a subjective increment based on project management experience. (see slides 13 & 14 and detailed contingency analysis)

• Contingency distributed annually consistent with needs.


EIR Summary Assessments (continued)

3. Critical Path

• See critical path plot on wall • See detail Primavera predecessor & successor report for logic

linkages

4. Funding Profile

• Project proposed baseline consistent with preliminary guidance (see slide 20)

5. Work Breakdown Structure

• Resource loaded schedule is organized by WBS (see WBS and WBS Dictionary)


SUMMARY

• Project has followed a disciplined path for updating its ETC

highlighted by;• Formal & consistent basis of estimate

• Independent reviews by PPPL engineering and PU

• Focus on obtaining realistic estimates from job managers

• Project has followed a methodical process for quantifying cost as

well as schedule contingency.

• Project has expanded its risk registry and incorporated into monthly

status review meetings

• Project has proposed a sound baseline cost estimate backed-up by

a resource loaded schedule and detailed estimate basis.

• Project is monitoring, reporting and communicating performance to

stake holders.


DETAILED STAFFING BACKUP

Name Job FEB FY08

MAR FY08

APR FY08

MAY FY08

JUN FY08

JUL FY08

AUG FY08

SEP FY08

OCT FY09

NOV FY09

DEC FY09

JAN FY09

FEB FY09

MAR FY09

APR FY09

MAY FY09

JUN FY09

JUL FY09

AUG FY09

SEP FY09

OCT FY10

NOV FY10

DEC FY10

BLANCHARD Job: 2101 - Fueling Systems-BLANCHARD 1.38 0.16 0.17 0.28 0.29 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01BLANCHARD Job: 2201 - Vacuum Pumping Systems-BLANCHARD 3.74 0.33 0.26 0.25 0.3 0.33 0.4 0.4 0.37 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03

BLANCHARD subtotal = 5.1 - - - - - - - - 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 DUDEK Job: 6301 - Utility Systems-DUDEK 0.86DUDEK Job: 6101 - Water Systems-DUDEK 0.99DUDEK Job: 8202 - Engr Mgmt & Sys Eng Sprt-HEITZENROED34.34 0.83 0.83 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.67 0.63 0.78 0.74 0.81 0.81 0.74 0.81 0.81 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.66 0.56

DUDEK subtotal = 36.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 GENTILE Job: 8501 - Integrated Systems Testing-GENTILE 7.61 0.48 0.71 0.64 0.53 0.45 0.59 0.53 0.59 0.52 0.49 0.56 0.59 0.31 0.43

GENTILE subtotal = 7.6 - - - - - - - - - 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 LABIK Job: 3601 - Edge Divertor Diagnostics-STRATTON 0.26 0.07 0.06LABIK Job: 3801 - Electron Beam Mapping-STRATTON 1.07 0.22 0.21 0.2 0.17LABIK Job: 3101 - Magnetic Diagnostics-STRATTON 5.25 0.96 0.69 0.66 0.21 0.11 0.12 0.16 0.17 1.18 0.1 0.27 0.16 0.05 0.07 0.06

LABIK subtotal = 6.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 - 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 LANGISH Job: 1451 - Mod Coil Winding-CHRZANOWSKI 3.64 0.45 0.45 0.47 0.45 0.45 0.47 0.45 0.45

LANGISH subtotal = 3.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PERRY Job: 1752 - Base Support Proc-PERRY 0.29 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0PERRY Job: 1550 - Coil Struct. Procurement -PERRY 0.51 0.09 0.1 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.08PERRY Job: 7601 - Tooling Design & Fabrication-PERRY 0.55PERRY Job: 7301 - Platform Design & 0.8 0.06 0.15 0.27 0.23 0.09PERRY Job: 8215 Plant Design 2.15 0.31 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.04PERRY Job: 7401 - TC Prep & Mach Assy Planning-PERRY 31.49 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.46 0.46 0.51 0.4 0.37 0.46 0.44 0.48 0.48 0.44 0.48 0.48 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.46 0.51

PERRY subtotal = 35.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 SANDS Job: 1802 - FP Assy Oversight&Support-VIOLA 20.09 0.1 0.69 0.72 0.69 0.69 0.72 0.69 0.69 0.75 0.59 0.56 0.69 0.65 0.72 0.72 0.65 0.72 0.72 0.69 0.69 0.72 0.62 0.52

SANDS subtotal = 20.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 SMITH Job: 1803/1805- FPA Tooling/Constr-BROWN/DUDEK 3.2 1.46 0.94 0.13 0.4 0.18 0.09SMITH Job: 7401 - TC Prep & Mach Assy Planning-PERRY 4.47SMITH Job: 8205 - Dimensional Control Coordin-ELLIS 6.42 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.14 0.14 0.17 0.17 0.29 0.29 0.26 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.3 0.25 0.2SMITH Job: 1802 - FP Assy Oversight&Support-VIOLA 10.78 0.65 0.65 0.68 0.65 0.65 0.32 0.25 0.24 0.29 0.28 0.31 0.31 0.28 0.31 0.31 0.29 0.29 0.36 0.31 0.26SMITH Job: 8203 - Design Integration-BROWN 14.05 0.41 0.32 0.3 0.37 0.35 0.39 0.39 0.35 0.39 0.39 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.34 0.28

SMITH subtotal = 38.9 1.5 1.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 VIOLA Job: 1802 - FP Assy Oversight&Support-VIOLA 27.02 0.92 0.92 0.96 0.92 0.92 0.96 0.92 0.92 1.01 0.79 0.75 0.92 0.88 0.97 0.97 0.88 0.97 0.97 0.92 0.92 0.97 0.84 0.7

VIOLA subtotal = 27.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 unassigned Job: 1421 - Mod Coil Interface Design-WILLIAMSON0.17 0.17 unassigned Job: 7601 - Tooling Design & Fabrication-PERRY 0.2 unassigned Job: 1601 - Coil Services Design-GORANSON 0.51 0.07 0.1 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.01 unassigned Job: 7503 - Machine Assembly (station 6)-PERRY 0.66 unassigned Job: 1810 - Field Period AssyStation 1 2 3 VIOLA 1.84 0.64 0.36 0.42 0.14 0.01 0.27 unassigned Job: 8501 - Integrated Systems Testing-GENTILE 2.07 unassigned Job: 1815 - Field Period Assy 3.67 0.32 0.44 0.57 unassigned Job: 7401 - TC Prep & Mach Assy Planning-PERRY 9.33

unassigned subtotal = 18.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 - - 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 - - - - - 0.3 0.4 0.6 -

TOTAL FO&M ENGINEERS = 199.4 6.4 5.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.9 4.4 4.6 5.7 4.5 4.4 5.2 4.7 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.2 4.6 4.4 5.1 5.5 4.7 3.6

Assigned = 91%

Job FEB FY08

MAR FY08

APR FY08

MAY FY08

JUN FY08

JUL FY08

Job: 2101 - Fueling Systems-BLANCHARD 1.38Job: 2201 - Vacuum Pumping Systems-BLANCHARD 3.74

BLANCHARD subtotal = 5.1 - - - - - - Job: 6301 - Utility Systems-DUDEK 0.86Job: 6101 - Water Systems-DUDEK 0.99Job: 8202 - Engr Mgmt & Sys Eng Sprt-HEITZENROED34.34 0.83 0.83 0.87 0.83 0.83 0.87

DUDEK subtotal = 36.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 Job: 8501 - Integrated Systems Testing-GENTILE 7.61

GENTILE subtotal = 7.6 - - - - - - Job: 3601 - Edge Divertor Diagnostics-STRATTON 0.26Job: 3801 - Electron Beam Mapping-STRATTON 1.07Job: 3101 - Magnetic Diagnostics-STRATTON 5.25 0.96 0.69 0.66 0.21 0.11 0.12

LABIK subtotal = 6.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 Job: 1451 - Mod Coil Winding-CHRZANOWSKI 3.64 0.45 0.45 0.47 0.45 0.45 0.47

LANGISH subtotal = 3.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Documents

Office of Science NCSX Project Review of NCSX April 8-10, 2008 Cost and Schedule Ron Strykowsky