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Savills Researchwww.savills.com
Offices
Savills Research I Seoul, Korea
27 April 2011
Image: A view of Seoul, CBD
Demandforofficespaceisexpectedtomaintainstable throughout2011, if theeconomyremainsunaffectedbyexternal factors andmaintains itspredictedgrowthrateof4.5%.
Net absorption rose by 146,000 sqm inQ1,attributabletolargebusinessesrequiringgreaterofficespaceandincreaseddemandfromthenewtenants.
Whileoverallfacerentswereincreasedby1.9%year-on-year,about10%ofsurveyedbuildingsloweredtheirrents.
"The office vacancy rate dropped to 7.8% in Q1 due to increased demand from large corporations. Office indices remained consistant, with face rents showing a slight rise and effective rents unchanged, as a result of rent-free periods."
The investmentmarketwasonceagain ledbydomesticinvestors.
The transaction volume remained at a similarpace to the first quarter volumes of 2007 to2009.
Cap rates and capital values seem to haveremainedatalevelsimilartothoseseenattheendof2010.
Over 200 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
I 02
Offices
Savills Research I Seoul, Korea
Market Overview
Monthly rent and vacancy rate by district, Q1/2011
DistrictAverageRent
(KRW/3.3058sqm,basedonGLA)
AverageRent(KRW/3.3058sqm,basedonNLA)
YoY IncreaseRate(%)
VacancyRate(%)
CBD 90,400 157,700 1.4 13.7
GBD 79,200 154,600 1.5 4.0
YBD 65,300 137,900 3.9 2.4
Overall Seoul Average
81,600 152,900 1.9 7.8
Source:SavillsKorea
Supply
GTTower,whichcameouttothemarketinGangnaminQ1/2011,hasleasedoutsevenofitsfloors(31%)asofMarch2011.ThemaintenantsincludeCheilWorldwide,RocheKorea,SolarParkandKoreaMurataElectronicsCompany. It is known thatGarakConstruction, theownerofGTTower,prefersamonthly rentalpaymentwithahigherratioofsecuritydepositthanthecheonseirentmethod.
New building supply in Q1/2011Completion
DateDistrict Building Name GFA(sqm) Floors
Q1/2011 GBD GTTower 54,399 24/B8F
Source:SavillsKorea
InQ2, StateNamsanTower andYGBuilding in theCentralBusinessDistrict(CBD)isdueforcompletion.These buildings are not known to have landed anytenantstodate.
Upcoming building supply in Q2/2011Completion
DateDistrict Building Name GFA(sqm) Floors
Q2/2011 CBDStateNamsan
(UrbanredevelopmentprojectinHoehyeondistrict2-1)
66,799 24F/B6F
Q2/2011 CBDYGBuilding
(Dadongdistrict7,8)42,549 23F/B6F
Source:SavillsKorea
Demand and Vacancy Rate
As large companies recruited new employees andexpandedinvestmentduringQ1,demandforofficespacesurged,resultinginnetabsorptionof146,000sqm,thehighestlevelsincetheGlobalFinancialCrisisin2008.
Vacancy absorption of conglomerates, Q1/2011
OccupiedbyExpansionofLargeConglomerates
68%
Others32%
Source:SavillsKorea
A number of factors are considered to bebehind theriseinnetabsorptiontoitshighestlevelintenquarters.Firstly,itisbelievedthatdemandforofficespace,whichtendstolagbehindtherealeconomy,hasfinallycaughtupin2011,followingthehigheconomicgrowthrateof6.1%postedin2010.Secondly,thesupplyofnewlargehigh-endprimebuildingshasprovidedtheopportunityforpotentialtenantstofinallymakedecisionsandsatisfytheirdemandforofficespace.Lastly,rent-freeperiods,tenantimprovements(TI)andotherbenefitswereofferedto the tenants to combat heightened vacancy rates.These factorswere themain contributor in loweringeffectiverentsandstimulatingtherelocationoftenantsfromsecondarybuildingstoprimebuildings.
GDP and net absorption, Q3/1998 - Q1/2011
-600,000
-300,000
0
300,000
600,000
900,000
1,200,000
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
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Q1
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Source:KoreaNationalStatisticalOffice,SavillsKorea
4QuarterNetAbsorption- RHSAxis AnnualGDPGrowth- LHSAxisNetAbsorptionAverage(1998~2003) NetAbsorptionAverage(2004~2008)
AnnualGDPGrowth NetAbsorption(sqm)
Over 200 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
I 03
Offices
Savills Research I Seoul, Korea
Conglomerateaffiliates'expansionofexistingofficespaceandleasestakenonbynewtenantsmadearemarkableimpactonthemarketinQ1.Securitiescompaniesalsocontributed to vacancy absorption as they increasedtheir office space requirements, following their annualnewyearreorganisation. InQ1/2011,thevacancyrateinSeoul's primebuildings droppedby 2.7% from thepreviousquarterto7.8%.
Vacancy rate of prime office buildings, Q1/2002 - Q1/2011
InQ1,thevacancyrateintheCBDfellto13.7%,whichisa3.5%decreasefromthepreviousquarter.Center1,whichwas completed inQ4/2010, filledapproximately5,000pyeongofitsofficespacewithMiraeAssetGlobalInvestmentandMiraeAssetMAPSGlobal Investment.TheCBDvacancy ratewasalso helpedbySamsungSecurities'relocationtoOliveTower,aSamsungaffiliate'sofficeexpansioninTaepyeongnoBuildingandSKE&C'srelocationtoSCFirstBankHQBuilding.
TheGangnamBusinessDistrict (GBD) also saw anincreaseinleasingdemand,withitsvacancyratefallingto4.0%.ExcludingthenewlycompletedGTTower,theaveragevacancyrate intheGBDwas2.1%.ThiswasprimarilyduetoSamsungSDSmovingintoGoldenTower,SamsungC&TCorporationintoKTBNetworkBuildingandSamsungEngineeringintoPrudentialTower.
OnedistinctfeatureofYeouidoBusinessDistrict(YBD)areaisthataslightchangeinvacancytendstohaveasignificantimpactonthevacancyrate,duetothesmallleasablearea.HPBuilding,whichsufferedthehighestamount of vacancy last quarter, benefited from newleasestoSCEngineering,SewonCellontechandMeritzSecurities.PrudentialAssetManagement,whichwasacquiredbyHanwhaGroup,relocatedfromPrudentialTowerinGangnamto63BuildinginYeouido.
Overall,thevacancyrateintheYBDfellto2.4%andwasalsoaidedbygreaterdemandfromfinancialcompaniesexpanding their existing offices, such as EugeneInvestment&SecuritiesleasingspaceinitsownEugeneInvestment&SecuritiesBuilding.
Vacancy rate distribution among surveyed prime buildings, Q4/2010 - Q1/2011
Morethan76%ofprimebuildingsinSeoulwerefoundtohavelessthan5%vacancy.Meanwhile,only12%ofprimebuildingshadvacancyratesofover10%whichishalfthelevelrecordedattheendof2010.
Employment in the financial and insurance sectors, Q1/2002 - Q1/2011
InQ1, all three business districts saw their vacancyratesdeclineduetotheoverallincreaseinofficeleasingdemand,partlydue toseasonal factors, suchasnewemployeerecruitment.Forexample,majorcorporationsincreasedtotalnumberofnewemployeehiringby6.7%,accordingtoJobkorea.Inaddition,theKoreaneconomyisprojectedtoachieveeconomicgrowthof4.5%in2011,despiteofpoliticalinstabilityintheMiddleEastandtheearthquakesinJapan.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source:SavillsKorea
CBD Gangnam Yeouido
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0% Lessthan5% 5~10% 10~15% Over15%
%ofSurveyedBuildings
Source:SavillsKorea
Q4/2010 Q1/2011
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11
NumberEmployed(thousands)
Source:SavillsKorea
Over 200 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
I 04
Offices
Savills Research I Seoul, Korea
InQ2,weexpect to see large companies continuingtofulfiltheirrequirementsformoreprimeofficespace,sustaining the demand hike in themarket.However,thecitywidevacancyrateisexpectedtoriseupto9%during the quarter as a result of an increase in newbuildingsupply.
Major Tenant Relocations, Q1/2011
Rent
Withtheoverallvacancyratedecliningandannualrentincreasesoccurring in someprimebuildings,Q1 facerentsroseby0.9%fromthepreviousquarterand1.9%fromthesameperiodlastyear.However,buildingswithhighcurrentorforthcomingvacancyloweredtheireffectiverent,throughlongerrent-freeperiodsandsomebuildingshaveevenmarkeddowntheirrents.Of81primebuildingsintotal,26raisedrentsandsevenofferedlowerrents.
Changes in prime buildings' face rent, Q4/1997 - Q1/2011
LandlordsintheCBDareawerecautiousinraisingrentsdue to the continuoussupplyof primebuildings seensince 2010.Rentswere increased in sevenbuildingswhose vacancy rates were below 5%, while fourbuildings, either newly suppliedbuildingsor buildingsanticipatingvacancy,loweredtheirrents.
Prime office building face rent index, Q3/1997 - Q1/2011
MeanwhileintheGBD,11outofatotalof31buildingsraised their rents with the backing of strong officedemand. It becamea norm for buildings in theYBDareatoraiserentat leastonceayear-afterenjoyingavacancyrateofbelow5%for thepreviousfive-yearperiod.Rental increaseswereseen ineightof the15primebuildingsinYBD.ProvingsuchconfidenceintheYBDofficemarket,OneIFC,plannedforcompletioninQ2/2011,hasalreadysignedleasecontractsforaround60%ofitsofficespaceandisexpectedtohaveonlyaminorimpactonvacancyratesinthedistrict.TheYBDpostedarentalincreaseof2.5%,higherthan0.4%intheCBDand0.6%inGBD.
Face rental trends, Q1/2011
DistrictFaceRent
(KRW/3.3058sqmbasedonGLA)
FaceRent(KRW/3.3058sqmbasedonNLA)
MonthlyRentalRatefromQ1/2010
CBD 90,400 157,700 1.4%
Gangnam 79,200 154,600 1.5%
Yeouido 65,300 154,600 1.5%
Seoul 81,600 154,600 1.5%
Source:SavillsKorea
PreviousBuilding CurrentBuilding
Tenant District Building Name
Lease area
(sq m)District Building
Name
Lease area
(sq m)
STX CBD SeoulCityTower 11,200 CBD
STX NamsanTower
21,279
SamsungSecurities CBD MPlaza
Tower N/A CBD Olive Tower 6,473
SKE&C CBD SKE&CHQ N/A CBDSCFirstBank'sHQ
2,354
SamsungSDS Bundang
SamsungSDS
BuildingN/A GBD Golden
Tower 15,617
SamsungC&T
CorporationGBD
SamsungSeochoTower
N/A GBD KTB Network 6,998
SC Engineering YBD
GoodMorning ShinahnSecurities
2,942 CBD HPBuilding N/A
SamsungEngineering NewTenant GBD Prudential
Tower 12,860
Source:SavillsKorea
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Q3
Q4
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19971998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102011
Q1/2001=100
Source:SavillsKorea
CBD Gangnam Yeouido
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Q4
Q1
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Q4
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Q1
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102011
Source:SavillsKorea
RentIncrease RentDecrease
Over 200 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
I 05
Offices
Savills Research I Seoul, Korea
Outlook
Despite the forecast for a continued hike in demandduringQ2,increasedvacancyfromnewofficesupplyislikelytoleadtoeitherstagnationoraslightdecreaseineffectiverents.RentaldeclineintheCBDinparticularappearsinevitableassomebuildingsalreadyseemedtohavebeenloweringtheirmarketrentsandprovidingatleastaone-monthrent-freeperiodforeachyearoftheleasetoattracttenants.Assuch,effectiverentshaveplungedbyhalfinsomebuildingsandsuchadownwardtrendineffectiverent,unrelatedtofacerent,isexpectedtocontinueforsometimetocome.
Transactions and Investment Market
ThetransactionvolumeofKRW670billioninQ1/2011waslowerthanthatofQ4/2010butonaparwiththelevelsrecordedinthefirstquartersof2007to2009.
Seoul office building cap rate trends, Q1/2001 - Q1/2011
SKSeorin Building was the only prime building tochangehandsinQ1/2011.SK,theconcurrentinvestorand tenant, acquired the building jointly with NPSthroughNPSDaolLandChipPrivateREIT33,inwhichSKandNPSjointlyinvested.AsSKGroupisnotonlyusing the building for its affiliates' offices but alsoparticipatingasamajorinvestorintheREITowningthebuilding,therentandbuildingpricesarenotconsideredtoreflectcurrentmarkettrends.
JRREIT5purchasedWiseBuildingandisplanningtoconvert thebuilding intoahotelafter threemonthsofremodelling.KocrefREIT17acquiredJudoAssociationBuilding,aretailbuildinginYeouido,andisexpectedtoconvertitintoofficesfollowingremodelling.
Cap rate trends, Q1/2005 - Q4/2011E
Amongsmallandmedium-sizebuildings,SamsungLifeInsuranceYeongdeungpoBuilding,Roi Building andDaeheungBuilding, located in theYeongdeungpoandDangsanareas,allchangedhandsinQ1.
Seoul prime office transaction volume, Q1/2001 - Q1/2011
ItisnotpossibletoaccuratelyestimatecapratesforQ1,withnoprimebuildingtransactionsexceptforSKSeorinBuilding.However,capratesareconsideredtobesimilartothoseofthepreviousquarter,andcapvaluesarealsoestimatedtohaveremainedsimilartoQ4/2010.
Withthecontinuedlackofinvestment-gradeofficebuildingsavailable in themarket, investors are now turning todevelopmentprojectswhichhadnotbeenconsideredforinvestmentin2010.Assuch,higherpricesarebeingofferedthanlastyearfordevelopmentprojects.Inaddition,alackof available stableoffice investmentopportunitieshasledinvestmentcompaniestokeepaneyeonnon-officecommercialbuildingssuchashotelsandretailproperties.
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Jan-05
May-05
Aug-05
Dec-05
Apr-06
Aug-06
Dec-06
Apr-07
Aug-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Source:SavillsKorea
CBD GBD YBD
-100
100
300
500
700
900
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
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Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2E
Q3E
Q4E
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source:SavillsKorea
Spread(RHS) Caprate(LHS) 5yrTreasuryBond(LHS)
0
1
2
3
4
5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source:SavillsKorea
Unit:1,000KRWbillionsQ1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Offices
Forfurtherinformation,pleasecontact:
ThisdocumentispreparedbySavillsforinformationonly.Whilstreasonablecarehasbeenexercisedinpreparingthisdocument,it issubjecttochangeandtheseparticularsdonotconstitute,norconstitutepartof,anofferorcontract;interestedpartiesshouldnotrelyonthestatementsorrepresentationsoffactbutmustsatisfythemselvesbyinspectionorotherwiseastotheaccuracy.Nopersonintheemploymentoftheagentortheagent'sprincipalhasanyauthoritytomakeanyrepresentationsorwarrantieswhatsoeverinrelationtotheseparticularsandSavillscannotbeheldresponsibleforanyliabilitywhatsoeverorforanylosshowsoeverarisingfromorinrelianceuponthewholeoranypartofthecontentsofthisdocument.Thispublicationmaynotbereproducedinanyformorinanymanner,inpartorasawholewithoutwrittenpermissionofthepublisher,Savills. © Savills (Hong Kong) Limited. 2011.
Savills Research I Seoul, Korea
koreaMoonduck KimChiefExecutiveOfficer,[email protected]
leasing services, korea Grace KoDirector,[email protected]
Seunghan LeeDirector,Leasing&Marketing,[email protected]
Sue LeeDirector,[email protected]
research & consulting, koreaJoAnn [email protected]
investment advisory, koreaKookhee [email protected]
asset management, koreaYoungtaek [email protected]
research & consultancy, asia pacificSimon [email protected]
addressSavills Korea Co., Ltd11/FSeoulFinanceCenter84Taepyungro-1-ga,Chung-gu,Seoul,Korea100-768T:+82221244114F:+82221244188
corporate websitewww.savills.co.kr
Nomuraisforminganinvestmentfundtoacquireexistinghotels,aswellassmall-scaleretailandofficebuildingstooperateashotels.Inaddition,JRAMCisremodellingWiseBuildingtooperateasahotel.Consideringsuchactivity, investors are expected to continue to showinterestinnon-officecommercialbuildingsin2011.
Major Transactions in Q1/2011
District Building Name Seller Purchaser
Area of
Transaction
(sqm)
Transaction
Price
(KRWBil.)
CBD WiseBuildingHyundaiAuction
REIT1JRREITs5 7,111 26.4
CBD SKHQ
GiantSpeicialized
LiquidationLtd./MerrillLynch-ShinhanBankConsortium
NPSDaolLandChipPrivateREITs
80,215 553
YBD
YeouidoSportsComplexCenter(Judo
AssociationBuilding)
KoreaJudoFoundation
KocrefREIT17
18,122 45
Others
SamsungLifeInsurance
YeongdeungpoBuilding
SamsungLifeInsurance
KOVIX Corporation
7,060 16.8
OthersDaeheungBuilding
K1CR-REIT
MisungIn.Div.(20%)+MisungS&P(60%)+
SPM(15%)+MisungGSE
(5%)
6,433 14.5
Others
Roi Building/former
DaeyeongBuilding
DaeyoengConstruction
Korea Cooking&CulinaryVocational
College
9,880 15
Source:SavillsKorea
Over 200 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
I 07
Offices
Savills Research I Seoul, Korea
Appendix 1: Overview of the Seoul Office Market and Savills Korea Office Survey
Closeto70%oflargeofficebuildings(30,000sqmormore)inSeoulareconcentratedinthreemajorbusinessdistricts-Central(CBD)36.3%,Gangnam(GBD)24.7%andYeouido(YBD)13.5%.CBDisthelargestofthesedistrictsandishometomajorgovernmentandmultinationalinstitutions.GBDalsohousesmanymultinationalcompaniesandisaninformationtechnologycentre.YBD,the"WallStreet"ofSouthKorea,includestheheadquartersofmajorsecuritiesfirmsandbroadcastingcompanies.
SummaryofSurveyedBuildings,March2011
CBD GBD YBD Total
A
NumberofBuildings 17 14 5 35
AverageGFA(sqm) 81,387 96,231 90,964 89,459
AverageYearofCompletion 1999 1999 1994 1998
B
NumberofBuildings 19 17 10 46
AverageGFA(sqm) 49,223 39,153 44,115 44,391
AverageYearofCompletion 1995 1998 1995 1996
TotalNumberofBuildings 36 31 15 82
TotalArea(sqm) 2,318,816 2,012,831 895,971 5,173,034
TheSavillsKoreaQuarterlyOfficeSurveyisthelongestrunningsurveyofprimeofficestockinSeoul.Establishedin1997,itcurrentlycomprises82ofthe111buildingsinSeoulclassifiedas"prime"buildings.
Primebuildings:BuildingswithaGFAgreaterthan30,000sqmwithgoodaccessibilityandfacilities,ahighleveloffinish,andcreditworthybluechiptenants.
Monthlyrent:Surveyedrentsare"facerents",theaskingrentsreportedbylandlordsformid-levelfloors.TheserentsarestandardisedbySavillsKoreatoaccountforvariationsinthesecuritydepositsrequiredbydifferentlandlordstoproduceaneffectiverentalfigureforNLA.
Netabsorption:Thenetchangeinoccupiedspaceoverthequarter.
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