OFFSHORE ja kaasun potentiaali... · 5%. 10%. 15%. 20%. 25%. 30%. 35%. 40%. 0. 10. 20. 30. 40. 50. 60. 70. 80. 90. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010

Doc.ID: Revision: Status:© Wärtsilä14/

OFFSHORE JA KAASUN POTENTIAALI

MERIKLUSTERIN TULEVAISUUSVERSTAS 13.10.2015Timo Koponen, Vice President, Flow & Gas Solutions

2 © Wärtsilä 13.10.2015 Meriklusterin tulevaisuusverstas - Offshore ja kaasu potentiaali - Timo Koponen, Wärtsilä

Strategic focus for Wärtsilä Marine Solutions

Efficiency Gas and dual-fuelsolutions

Environmentalsolutions

To be recognised as the leading provider of innovative products and integrated solutions in the marine and offshore oil & gas industry.

Marine Solutions’ strategic goal

• Lifecycle solutions for ship owners and operators• Integrated solutions for the shipbuilding industry, owners and operators• The most competitive products and delivery process for the marine industryTH

ROUG

HO

FFER

ING

LEAD

ER IN


Marine Solutions operates in two industries

The Marine industry• Merchant, Cruise & Ferry, Navy and Special

vessels

The Oil and Gas industry• Newbuild vessels and rigs for exploration

and production in offshore fields• Gas distribution chain equipment and

infrastructure (e.g. for liquefaction and regasification)

• Cautious outlook given increased uncertainty over developments in global economy and oil prices• Environmental regulations, increased safety requirements, fuel costs and efficiency requirements

continue to support investments – however lower fuel costs and uncertainty over enforcement of environmental regulation weaken the effect

Developments in the global economy drive demand for: • Seaborne cargo transportation• Cruise and ferry services• Navy vessels

Global demand and price level for oil and gas are crucial for:• Investment into offshore oil and gas exploration

and production (including support vessels)• Investment into development of gas distribution

chains


Global oil & gas supply: Share of offshore expected to grow

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• Offshore increases its share of total production in both oil and gas• Growth in total gas production outpaces oil, also offshore gas production grows faster than oil

− Total global offshore natural gas production is forecast to increase by more than 2% y-o-y 2015-2025

Source: Rystad Energy.

Global OIL production & share of offshore Global GAS production & share of offshore


Offshore vessel contracting correlates with oil price

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Brent crude price and offshore contracting (12 mma)Lehman collapse

Credit crisis

China fiscal stimulus

Global recovery

Libya losses

EU crisis

Iran

”Arab spring” Draghi

”Whatever it takes”

Iran negotiations KSA supply surgeGreece

Libya losses

Iraq supply risk fears

NAM shale supply surge

Saudi price cuts

OPEC meeting

ChinaGreeceIran agreement

US rig count bottoming out

Forecast vessel contracts / month:• 2016: 25 offshore vessels• 2017: 32 offshore vessels• 2018: 40 offshore vessels

2016F 2017F 2018F

Source: EIA, Clarkson Platou, Douglas-Westwood.

Forecast brent crude price;

• 2016: ~60$/bbl• 2017: ~80$/bbl• 2018: ~90$/bbl


The low oil price reduces the level of offshore investments near term

Source: Rystad Energy. E&P data modeled at 60-80 $/bbl 2015-2017 and above 80$/bbl from 2018 onwards.

• 2015 total offshore E&P CAPEX is expected to decline by 18% compared to 2014;− EPCI, Drilling, and Well & Maintenance Services segments expected to face the biggest decline

• E&P capex growth expected from 2018, with gas outpacing oil

• Offshore gas E&P capex forecast to double in the next 10 years

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Oil Gas

CAGR 2015-2020:

(Billion USD)

OIL 1.1%

Exploration & Production Offshore CAPEX– by segment

Exploration & Production Offshore CAPEX– Oil and Gas split

(Billion USD)


Global gas resources

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• Technically recoverable reserves providing more than 200 years coverage at current demand• However, it is estimated that only in North America unconventional gas production is reaching any significant

volumes

Source: Exxon Mobile Energy Outlook


The natural gas market is global

World Energy Outlook by IEA*: MAJOR GLOBAL TRADE FLOWS 2035

• Mismatch between resources’ and consumers’ locations requires investments in gas infrastructure

* IEA = International Energy Agency


Natural gas trade grows faster than consumption

BP Energy Outlook 2035: LNG EXPORTS

• LNG exports increases its share of gas trade between regions, accounting for 16% of the global gas consumption in 2035 implying more than 50% of cross border traded gas volumes

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Increasing number LNG importing countries

IGU* World LNG Report 2014: No. of LNG IMPORTING AND EXPORTING COUNTRIES

• Significant growth in number of importing countries increases demand for small and medium scale receiving terminals and gas carriers

* IGU = International Gas Union



Key gas applications with Wärtsilä involvement

Platform / Offshore support vessels, Anchor handling tugs

LNG carriers

Floating / Jetty regasification units

Small scale and biogas liquefaction plants

LPG, LEG, Ethane, Multigas and small LNG carriers

LNG import terminals and bunkering stations

Increasing number of gas fuelled vessels, e.g. cruise ships and ferries, PSVs and OSVs, merchant vessels

Power plants

Documents

OFFSHORE ja kaasun potentiaali... · 5%. 10%. 15%. 20%. 25%. 30%. 35%. 40%. 0. 10. 20. 30. 40. 50. 60. 70. 80. 90. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010