OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION ECONOMIC IMPACT SESSION Cluster Analysis and General Economic Trends in Guernsey County, OH NCRCRD GRANT PROJECT August

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION ECONOMIC IMPACT SESSION Cluster Analysis and General Economic Trends in Guernsey County, OH NCRCRD GRANT PROJECT August 8, 2014

2 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Objectives Overview of shale development - Guernsey Co. General demographic and economic trends Define a cluster analysis Review the results from the cluster analysis in Guernsey Co.

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Shale Development Update

4 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Utica Development Update Source: ODNR 7/26/2014

5 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION 2013 Horizontal Well Gas Production Source: ODNR 7/26/2014

6 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION 2013 Horizontal Well Oil Production Source: ODNR 7/26/2014

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION The resource curse is the term coi ned for the seemingly counterintuitive occurrence of slow long-term economic growth in regions rich in natural resources. Source: Making Shale Development Work for Ohio, Michael Farren, Amanda L. Weinstein, and Mark D. Partridge (June, 2012)

8 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Situation Overview Managing the Boom Public Capital (Roads, Water, Electric, Information) Human Capital (Education & Job Training) Natural Capital (Non- renewable natural resource extraction)

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Economic Impacts

10 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Cluster Analysis Data Sources and Steps Analyzing CHRR Data Finding industry concentrations (location quotient analysis) Finding industry strengths (shift share analysis) Preparing CHRR Data Step 1: OrganizingStep 2: Aggregating Accessing Data Sources IMPLANCHRR

11 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Demographic Changes 2000, 2008-2012 Population shrank from 40,177 to 39,927, a difference of 250 people between 2008-2012. Employment in Guernsey County increased from 17,958 in 2008 to 19,909 in 2012, increasing by 1,951. Employee compensation increased 7% between 2008 and 2011 from $584M to $631M and rose another 8.4% to $684M in the year between 2011-2012. Average household income rose by 14.6% from $62,664 to $71,829 between 2008-2012. Source: IMPLAN

12 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION 2000 - 2005 Top Ten Employment Change Gain vs. Loss

15 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Guernsey County Employment Trend

16 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Ohio Department of Job & Family Services Core Shale Industries NACISDescription2010 -2013 Emp. Change 213112Support Activities for Oil and Gas Operations-6 237120Oil and Gas Pipeline and Related Structures Construction136 211111Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction4 211112Natural Gas Liquid Extraction104 Total Jobs238

17 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION ODJFS Ancillary Shale Sectors (2010-2013) Analyze NACISDescription 2010 -2013 Emp. Change 331210Iron and Steel Pipe and Tube Manufacturing from Purchased Steel48 484110General Freight Trucking, Local 541330Engineering Services38 237310Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction9 811310 Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment (except Automotive and Electronic) Repair and Maintenance 484220Specialized Freight (except Used Goods) Trucking, Local18 237110Water and Sewer Line and Related Structures Construction-5 2389124 423830Industrial Machinery and Equipment Merchant Wholesalers1 331110Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing 562910Remediation Services2 541380Testing Laboratories1 541620Environmental Consulting Services0 531190Lessors of Other Real Estate Property-2 423810 Construction and Mining (except Oil Well) Machinery and Equipment Merchant Wholesalers 13 Total Jobs124

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION But Global Data also flagged the competitive advantage that U.S. companies will receive from the lower cost provided by shale gas. And this opportunity is attracting investment from some of the industrys bigger names. Just last week the International Energy Agency said some 30 million European jobs are at risk as manufacturers of petrochemicals, plastics and fertilizers are relocating to the U.S. Source: Shale Reshapes Petrochemicals Business. The Wall Street Journal. Ben Winkley (July, 2014)

19 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Downstream Value Chain Markets

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Cluster Analysis

21 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Whats a Cluster? A geographic concentration of interdependent, collaborating and/or competing businesses and related institutions that draw productive advantage from their mutual proximity and connections

22 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Companies Cluster Together Because Each one benefits from being located near other similar or related companies They have competitive strengths and needs

23 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Cluster Supply Chains Include Diverse Sectors Core: extraction Secondary (or Ancillary): manufacturers Tertiary (or Ancillary): services Quaternary: knowledge-based focused on technology R&D

24 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Examples of Clusters Wisconsin has a large energy and power cluster

25 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Top Ten Basic Industry Sectors by Employment (2013) NACISDescription2010 Jobs2013 Jobs % Change 3336 Engine, Turbine and Power Transmission Equipment Mfg. 4915277.3% 3312Steel Product Manufacturing34639413.9% 3256Soap, Cleaning Compound & Toilet Prep Mfg.3213498.7% 2371Oil and Gas Pipeline & Related Structures16229884% 3262Rubber Product Manufacturing16428320.3% 3359Other Electrical Equipment & Component Mfg.10512822% 3114 Fruit and Vegetable Preserving & Specialty Food Manufacturing 8812542.1% 2111Oil and Gas Extraction01041080% 2123Nonmetallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying2054170% 3322Cutlery and Handtool Mfg.1024140% Source: Center for Human Research Resource (CHRR) For purposes of cluster analysis, we are concentrating on the export industries clusters that begin with the core and include the secondary, tertiary (or ancillary) sectors. That is a true cluster.

26 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Top Ten Basic Industry Sectors by Location Quotient (2010-2013) NACISDescription2013 LQ2010 LQ % Change 3312Steel Product Manufacturing 43.758.3(34%) 3336 Engine, Turbine and Power Transmission Equipment Mfg. 34.537.4(-8%) 3256Soap, Cleaning Compound & Toilet Prep Mfg. 2520.518% 3262Rubber Product Manufacturing13.68.438% 3359Other Electrical Equipment & Component Mfg. 6.65.517% 3114 Fruit and Vegetable Preserving & Specialty Food Manufacturing 4.93.527% 2371Oil and Gas Pipeline & Related Structures2.34.346% 3322Cutlery and Handtool Mfg.4.11.856% 2111Oil and Gas Extraction 4.685% 2123Nonmetallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying4325% Source: Center for Human Research Resource (CHRR) Location Quotient (LQ) is the concentration of employment in one area relative to the U.S. An LQ over 1 represents a greater than average concentration, or an industry strength.

27 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Top Ten Basic Industry Sectors by Regional Share (2010-2013) NACISDescription National Share Industry Mix Regional Share Total 2371Oil and Gas Pipeline & Related Structures23(29)142136 3262Rubber Product Manufacturing26(12)108122 2111Oil and Gas Extraction26104112 3256Soap, Cleaning Compound & Toilet Prep Mfg.54(95)6928 3114 Fruit and Vegetable Preserving & Specialty Food Manufacturing 15(14)3637 2123Nonmetallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying3(1)3134 3359Other Electrical Equipment & Component Mfg.18(19)2423 3322Cutlery and Hand tool Mfg.(1)01312 3336 Engine, Turbine and Power Transmission Equipment Mfg. 83(16)(31)36 3312Steel Product Manufacturing58110(120)48 Source: Center for Human Research Resource (CHRR) Shift Share measures the influences of job growth based on national growth trends, regional growth trends or sectoral changes. A positive regional share indicates positive growth trends supporting that industry in the region/county.

28 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Top Ten Industry Sectors by Output (2012) DescriptionOutput 3336Engine Equipment Manufacturing$421,833,000 3256Soap and Cleaning Compound Manufacturing$375,628,300 3261Plastics Material and Resin Manufacturing$203,931,300 6222Rental Activity for Owner-Occupied Dwellings $151,774,200 3312Steel Product Manufacturing$125,898,800 3262Rubber Product Manufacturing$90,791,110 2123Private Hospitals$87,901,130 5615Wholesale Trade Businesses$73,924,300 3256Construction of New Residential Structures$73,467,290 3359Government (non-education)$68,256,960 Source: IMPLAN Output represents the total value of industry production including sales, profit, wages, and inventory change.

29 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Fastest Growing Services Sectors (2010-2013) Description 2010 Employment 2013 Employment Change in Employment 722511Full-Service Restaurants20726659 621610Home Health Care Services40346158 721211RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Campgrounds5010555 922120Police Protection15419743 813319Other Social Advocacy Organizations042 622210Psychiatric and Substance Abuse Hospitals9814042 541330Engineering Services13917738 561520Tour Operators029 713910Golf Courses and Country Clubs275124 722513Limited-Service Restaurants22323916 Source:CHRR

30 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Workforce Strengths: Top Occupational Clusters by Employment and LQ (2012) IndustryEmployment Share of Total Employment Concentration (LQ) Installers & repairers1,8279.30%1.33 Health care and medical science (aggregate) 1,2336.30%1.1 Legal, financial services, and real estate1,0375.30%.67 Managerial, sales, marketing and HR9594.90%.62 Education & social services9101.60%.88 Technology-based and knowledge clusters8744.40%.56 Agribusiness and food technology8714.40%2.91 Totals7,71136.2% Source: Statsamerica.org

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Strategy Discussion and Breakout

32 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Guernsey County/Regional Clusters 1.Oil and Gas Extraction, Mining and Construction 2.Steel Products, inc. Engine and Large Equipment 3.Rubber and Plastics, inc. Compounds 4.Electrical Equipment and Components 5.Specialty Food Processing

33 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Steel Product and Machinery Manufacturing Mega-Cluster Map (NAICS 33) Primary/Core Industries: Fabricated structural metal, cutlery and flatware, metal buildings, plate and sheet metal work, heavy machinery manufacturing Services/Support: Engineering services, metal heat treating, metal coating and electroplating, machine shops, metal heat treating Specialized Infrastructure: Clean water supply Hazardous waste disposal Wholesale and distribution services Secondary/Suppliers: Iron and steel forging, custom roll forming, metal stamping, fabricated pipe and pipe fitting, powder metallurgy parts mfg.

34 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Sample Oil & Gas Cluster Strategies Establish regional collaboration to organize cluster linkages and map assets Develop cluster marketing strategy Expand participation in upstream mining activities Build on downstream mineral supply chain development Leverage QOL and infrastructure improvements (broadband, roads, water)

35 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Discussion Questions Identify Opportunities 1.What are the opportunities,( i.e. wealth and income creation, workforce development, emerging manufacturing, retail or services gaps, etc.) 2.What sustainable strategies can be identified (i.e. workforce preparation, entrepreneurship, regional innovation etc.)? Who will do it?

Documents

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION ECONOMIC IMPACT SESSION Cluster Analysis and General Economic Trends in Guernsey County, OH NCRCRD GRANT PROJECT August