“OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION IN THE FRONTIER

AREAS OF EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN, THE

IONIAN SEA AND OFFSHORE CRETE, GREECE.

THEIR IMPORTANCE IN MEETING THE EUROPEAN

UNION ENERGY DEMANDS BEYOND 2020".

• My presentation revolves around three subjects;

• 1. Where and how much are the proven, highly probable and probable hydrocarbon reserves in Eastern Mediterranean, offshore Crete and the Ionian sea.

• 2. What will be the European Community • energy needs beyond 2020.

• 3. Can these needs be satisfied from the North • Sea (oil and gas fields), oil producing • nations, Russia and northern Africa (mainly • gas) which are the current energy suppliers

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POTENTIAL OIL AND GAS SYSTEMS OFFSHORE CRETE AND THE IONIAN SEA BASED ON PGS GEOPHYSICAL SURVEYS, DATED MARCH 2013.

The new dataenables a new regional understanding for

basin evaluation and structural history reconstruction and theidentification of potential petroleum systems will ensure interest in the 2014 bid round

New exploration opportunities in Greece with new geophysical techniques for improved geologic understanding and hydrocarbon prospecting.

By

Robinson, J.1, Angelopoulos, A.2, Bellas, S.2

1 Petroleum GeoService, 4 The Heights, Weybridge, KT13 0NY, UK. 2 Hellenic Republic, Ministry of Environment, Energy and Climate Change,

Directorate of Petroleum Policy, Mesogion 119, GR-101 92 Athens, Greece.

AAPG meeting in Barcelona, Spain, April 8-10, 2013…………………………………………………………………………………..…………………………………………………………………………………..

ENI-KOGAS

TOTALTOTAL-NOVARC

GBP

NOBLE

EXPLORATION BLOCKS WITHIN THE EEZ OF CYPRUS ALONG WITH THE AWARDED BLOKS TO VARIOUS EXPLOITATION OIL COMPANIES

EXPLORATION AREAS IN THE LEVIATHAN BASIN

ISRAEL’S GAS FIELDS IN THE LEVIATHAN BASIN

OIL AND GAS FIELDS IN THE NILE CONE AND LEVANTINE BASIN

126 natural gasproducing fields

PROBABLE AND PROVEN HYDROCARBON FIELDS IN EASTEN MEDITERRANEAN AND OFFSHORE CRETE AND THE IONIAN SEA

United States Geological Survey (USGS) 2010. Undiscovered oil and gas of the Nile Delta Basin, Eastern Mediterranean. Fact Sheet 2010-3027. February 2010.

PROVEN, HIGHLY PROBABLE AND PROBABLECONVENTIONAL NATURAL GAS RESERVES OF EASTERN

MEDITERRANEAN IN TRILLION CUBIC METERS ( 1 Tcm = 6.44 X 10 =3 boe)

EEZ OF COUNTRIES

PROVEN HIGHLY PROBABLE

50% PROBABLE

EGYPT 1.8 6.31

ISRAEL 0.9 0.91

CYPRUS 0.3 1.6-1.7 1.52

SYRIA+ LEBANON 1.51

GREECE/CRETE 3.53—5.54

TOTAL 3.0 1.6-1.7 13.7 – 16.2

1 USGS Technical Report, 2010.. 2 BEICIP/F3.RANLAB and PGS 3 Relating similar natural gas findings with number of MFV and similarities of the Herodotus basin portions belonging to Egypt and Cyprus to the one belonging to Greece.

4 If we equate the basin south of Crete to the Levanyine according to recent statements by PGSCONVERSION FACTORS = 1 boe = 5,487 cubic feet = 155.373 cubic meters of natural gas.

PRODUCTIONin 2031

45 million bar./day

World’s Liquid Fuels Supply by EIA, 2009 DECLINE OF CONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION

Trends in World Oil Supply/ Consumption and Net Exports/Imports,Likvern, R., September 2010 Oil Drum Europe

BRENT OILPRICE

DECLINE OF CONVENTIONAL NET OIL EXPORTS

• WHAT THE GRAPHS ARE SAYING IS THE FOLLOWING:

• EVERY DAY WE ARE PRODUCING 88 MILLION BARRELS• OF OIL HOWEVER, WE ARE EXPORTING ONLY 42 • MILLION BARRELS OF OIL • SO 46 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL ARE KEPT BY THE • PRODUCING COUNTRIES.

• FOUR COUNTRIES, NAMELY USA, JAPAN, CHINA AND • SOUTH KOREA ABSORB 25 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY• TO MEET THEIR INTERNAL DEMANDS, LEAVING THE • DIFFERENCE OF 19 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL TO THE

REMAINING COUNTRIES, INCLUDING EUROPE.

• EUROPE CONSUMES EVERY DAY 14 MILLION BARRELS• OF OIL OUT OF WHICH 11 MILLION BARRELS ARE • IMPORTED

• BY 2020 WORLDWIDE OIL PRODUCTION WILL DROP TO • 65 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY WHICH IMPLIES A

DIAILY REDUCTION OF 21 MILLION BARRELS.

• AS A RESULT EUROPE WILL FACE AN • UNPRECEDENTED ENERGY CRISIS BECAUSE IT WILL • NEED THE EQUIVALENT ENERGY OF AT LEAST 4 • BILLION BARRELS OF OIL (11 MILLION BARRELS/DAY • X 365 DAYS/YEAR)

• THE EQUIVALENT ENERGY, CAN BE OBTAINED BY • IMPORTING NATURAL GAS 620 BILLION M3 OF

NATURAL GAS PER YEAR

Actual Natural Gas Consumption between 2001 and 2009 of the European Union. Forecast Supplies and Consumptiom towards 2020,Likvern, R. August 2010. www.energybulletin.net/node/53656- Cashed

and in August 3, 2010 the Oil Drum

Εικόνα 11. Ποσότητες φυσικού αερίου σε Μ3/έτος που θα χρειαστεί η ΕΕ των 27 το 2020. Εκτιμάται ότι το 2020 θα χρειαστούν, περίπου, 442 Μ3/ετησίως

BY 2020 IMPORTS WILL CLIMB TO 442 BCM/YEAR

• BESIDES THE REQUIRED EQUIVALENT AMOUNT OF 620 • BILLION M3 OF NATURAL GAS TO COUNTERBALANCE• THE OIL DEFICIT, AN ADDITIONAL AMOUNT OF ROUGHLY 245 • BILLION M3 OF NATURAL GAS WILL BE REQUIRED DUE TO • THE DECLINE OF NATURAL GAS RESERVES FROM THE • NORTH SEA,THE DECLINE OF NATURAL GAS IMPORTS AND • THE DECLINE OF LNG IMPORTS.

• HENCE THE TOTAL NATURAL GAS IMPORTS IN 2020 WILL BE442 (197 + 245 BILLION M3) OF NATURAL GAS BRINGING THE

•

• GRAND TOTAL TO 1062 (620+442) BILLION M3 OF

• NATURAL GAS•

• CAN RUSSIA FILL THE EUROPEAN ENERGY DEFICIT?

• THE ANSWER IS NO EVEN IF SHE DESIRES TO DO SO• AND EVEN IF EUROPE ACCEPTS SUCH A “ GIFT”.

• WHY? BECAUSE• A. TODAY RUSSIA PRODUCES 600 BILLION M3 OF • NATURAL GAS OUT OF WHICH 2/3 ARE • CONSUMED INTERNALLY WHILE THE • REMAINING IS EXPORTED TO EUROPE, 150 • BILLION M3, AND 50 BILLION M3.• TO OTHER COUNTRIES,

• HENCE TO SUPPLY ANOTHER 825 MILLION M3 OF • NATURAL GAS/YEAR WITH TODAY’S • INFRASTRUCTURE IS AN IMPOSSIBLE MISSION

RUSSIA’ S NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION, EXPORTS (RED BARS) AND INTERNAL CONSUMPTION (BLUE BARS) IN M3/YEAR

GAZPROM’S FORECAST NATURAL GAS DECLINE BY 2020

• B. RUSSIA’S NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION OF 600 • BILLION M3 PER YEAR WILL DROP BY 2020 TO 400 • BILLION M3, COVERING EXACTLY ITS INTERNAL • NEEDS.

• SO, EUROPE BY 2020 MUST FIND NOT 825 BILLION M3 • OF NATURAL GAS BUT 975 BILLION M3 SINCE THE • TODAY’S SUPPLY OF 150 BILLION M3 FROM RUSSIA • WILL CEASE.

• CAN NORTH AFRICA INCREASE ITS SUPPLY BY 2020?

THE ANSWER IS

NO.

SO WHERE EUROPE HAS TO TURN

TO MEET HER ENERGY DEMANDS?

IT IS EXACTLY AT THIS POINT, THAT ISAROUND 2020, WHERE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AND OFFSHORECRETE AND THE IONIAN SEA WILL COMETO FILL EUROPE’S ENERGY DEFICIT BYSUPPLYING 500 M3 OF NATURAL GAS PER YEAR FOR 30 YEARS.

THE REMAINING AMOUNT OF 500 M3 WILL COME FROM RUSSIA AND NORTH AFRICA (ALGERIA, EGYPT, LIBYA)

• From Both Eastern Mediterranean and Russia

• Eastern Mediterranean has a potential of over 20 Trillion • M3 of natural gas out of which 5 Trillion M3 will stay with • the producing countries. The remaining 15 Trillion M3 can • be exported at a rate of 500 Billion M3 of natural gas/year.

• Russia’s proven natural gas reserves are 47 Trillion M3• out of which 2/3 will be kept to satisfy its internal demand• while the remaining 1/3 can be exported. From this amount,• 25% is already allocated to Far East and 75% that is, 12 • Trillion M3 of natural gas, to Europe. The rate of export can • be 400 Billion M3 of natural gas/year

• Hence Russia should increase its natural gas production and develop new pipeline systems to meet some of Europe’s demand

THANK YOU

Figure 11. Hydrate thicknesses in the Mediterranean Sea, Praeg et. al., 2007.Red line denotes Greece’s EEZ. ΠΑΧΗ ΜΗ ΣΥΜΒΑΤΙΚΩΝ ΑΠΟΘΕΜΑΤΩΝ ΜΕΘΑΝΙΟΥ ΣΤΟΝ ΒΥΘΟ ΤΗΣ ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΗΣ

ΑΠΟΚΛΕΙΣΤΙΚΗΣ ΖΩΝΗΣ ΕΚΜΕΤΑΛΛΕΥΣΗΣ

KRHTHΣΤΕΡΕΟΠΟΙΗΜΕΝΟΦΥΣΙΚΟ ΑΕΡΙΟ

Εικόνα 24. Υδρίτες ( Στερεοποιημένο Μεθάνιο, CH4).

ΙΛΥΟΗΦΑΙΣΤΕΙΑ

ΣΤΕΡΕΟΠΟΙΗΜΕΝΟΦΥΣΙΚΟ ΑΕΡΙΟ ΚΑΤΩΑΠΌ ΤΟΝ ΠΥΘΜΕΝΑΤΗΣ ΘΑΛΑΣΣΑΣ

ΠΑΧΗ ΣΤΕΡΕΟΠΟΙΗΜΕΝΟΥ ΜΕΘΑΝΙΟΥ ΚΑΤΩ ΑΠΌ ΤΟΝ ΒΥΘΟ ΤΗΣ ΘΑΛΑΣΣΑΣ

ΣΤΕΡΕΟΠΟΙΗΜΕΝΟ ΜΕΘΑΝΙΟ

Drop of oil exports from exporting nations