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Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
CONTENTS
I n t r o d u c t i o n
U p s t r e a m & P r o d u c t i o n
M i d s t r e a m S e c t o r
M i d s t r e a m A c t i v i t y
G a s D e v e l o p m e n t s
A s s e t A c q u i s i t i o n s
R e g u l a t o r y
G l o s s a r y
3
4
7
8
9
13
14
19 C o n t a c t s 21
INTRODUCTION
3
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
Tominiyi Owolabi Partner, Oil and Gas January 2019
This Review is the second in our series and
this year we would be looking at major,
industry wide events across the Nigerian Oil
and Gas Industry (the Industry) in 2018.
2018 was an improvement on 2017 in terms
of investment and regulatory activities in the
Industry. You will observe as you go through
the Review, that some of the major
highlights of 2018 include the passage of
the PIGB by the Senate and its presentation
to President Muhammadu Buhari for assent;
the NLNGs Train 7 development and
financing which has finally kicked off and the
NNPC’s 7 Critical Gas Development
Projects (7CGDPs).
On the gas side, true to its promise, there
was some activity by the NNPC in relation
to the Flare Gas Commercialization
Programme and the ensuing regulations
which were issued in 2018, as well as a few
critical projects earmarked by the NNPC
and its subsidiaries..
Expectedly, 2019 will be off to a slow start
on account of factors such as the Nigerian
general elections, global slump in the
economy, fall in crude prices as well as
uncertainty on the passage of the PIB
amongst others. Accordingly, we do not
expect any significant activity in Q1 and Q2,
save the continuation of some of the deals
which kicked off in 2018. Post the elections
however, we do expect some pick-up in
activity.
I hope that you find it an enriching read.
Please do not hesitate to contact us if you
have any queries.
Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s top oil producer in 2018, a position which it had lost
briefly to Angola sometime in 2016 on account
of increased vandalisation of oil facilities in the
oil rich Niger Delta. The country had set a
production benchmark of 2.3 mbd in the 2018 budget on the back of projections that
production output would hit 2.2 million bpd by
early 2019 when the 200,000 bpd Egina field
comes on stream.
Nigeria, which had earlier been exempted from
the 2017 OPEC supply cuts, will in 2019, be
expected to reduce production output as part
of efforts by OPEC to tighten the oil market
and increase the price of crude to $70 per barrel by Q3 2019. Understandably, this raises
concerns of potential decrease in government
revenue from oil exports. If the country is to
implement the production cuts with minimal
disruption to current government revenue levels, then a ramp up on condensates
production to about 640,000 bpd from its
current capacity of about 450,000 bpd
equivalent of condensates will be a welcome
development, given that the OPEC production numbers applies only to crude oil and does not
include condensates.
Anxiet ies relat ing to the OPEC cuts
notwithstanding, there is optimism that the country’s planned daily oil output of 2.3million
bpd for 2019 is still achievable. This was on
the back of the attainment of first oil by Egina,
Nigeria’s deepwater oil field in December
2018, which added an additional 200,000 bpd to the mix, thereby raising Nigeria’s daily oil
production above 2.09 million bpd as of
December, 2018.
Nigeria retains position as Africa’s top oil producer amidst OPEC Production cuts
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
4
2.3million bpd Nigeria’s projected daily oil output of
for 2019 still achievable
UPSTREAM & PRODUCTION
UPSTREAM & PRODUCTION
2018, a modest year for Upstream Investments in Nigeria
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
5
24% of capex on upstream Oil & Gas projects in sub Saharan Africa between 2019 & 2025, will be expended in Nigeria.
2018 did not witness any signif icant investments in new upstream projects. This
has been attributed to a number of factors
including Nigeria’s slow recovery from the
recession, inability of the Federal Government
to fully pass the much awaited PIB as well as uncertainty around fiscal terms for upstream
investments, slump in global crude oil prices,
and general decline in the economy amongst
others. Further, given that 2019 is an election
year for Nigeria, investors would typically be cautious of commencing any fresh round of
investments or acquisitions.
Despite the above, it is estimated that about
24% of the total capex on upstream oil and gas
projects in sub Saharan Africa over the next 5-6 years commencing from 2019, will be
expended in Nigeria.
Some of the key projects headlining that
expenditure are the Agip operated Zabazaba
Eton project, as well as developments on Shell’s assets in Bonga North and Bonga
South West. However, execution of some of
these projects would still take a few years.
In 2018, we also saw some independents grow by expanding their businesses into allied
services and we expect them to continue on
this path as they aim to get stronger.
UPSTREAM & PRODUCTION
Upstream Financing
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
6
Upstream asset financing was generally slow for most of 2018, save for the odd transaction
here and there. NNPC and NPDC favoured
alternative models of raising finance- (the
forward sale) to unlock value in certain
stranded non- JV assets. These models, although not new to the market, could solve
the funding challenges that have plagued the
government’s side for many years.
NPDC also achieved significant milestones in 2018, having increased its average production
from its operated assets which has steadily
grown from about 108,000 of oil per day in
2017, to 165,000 bod as at December 2018.
Significantly, NPDC’s equity production share currently represents about 8% of national daily
production which has been attributed to
initiatives such as the asset management team
structure, adoption of strategic financing models, and security architecture framework
amongst others. We expect that NPDC’s
alternative financing models would continue to
drive future upstream projects by the NPDC,
given its potential to unlock value from stranded assets in partnership with key
investors, whilst also enabling the NPDC side-
step some of the bottlenecks and challenges
associated with its traditional funding models.
More traditionally, however, the headline deal
for 2018 was clearly NLNG kickstarting the
long-awaited USD7 billion Train 7 development
and financing, which is aimed at construction
of a new LNG train thus ensuring continued production and supply of LNG to meet NLNG’s
existing and future LNG commitments.
NPDC’s equity production share currently represents about 8% of national daily production
MIDSTREAM SECTOR
Nigeria’s march towards self-sustainability in Refined Petroleum Products still on Course
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
7
Given the continued underperformance of the nation’s four major refineries, modular
refineries have been identified as one of the
ways of increasing the country’s refining
capacity. One of the ‘wins’ for the Federal
Government in 2018, was the ground-breaking ceremony for the Waltersmith 5,000bpd
Refinery with a capacity to scale up to
35,000bpd, with another 2 refineries billed for
completion between 2019 and 2020.
One of the key challenges for investors in
modular refineries in Nigeria and financiers
alike, is that of guaranteed supply of feedstock.
This perhaps, led to the model adopted by the
few existing modular field refineries in the country as well as those that are currently
under construction, whereby an upstream
producer establishes a midstream company to
own and operate the modular refinery, thereby
ensuring security of supply of crude feedstock to the refinery. Other possible options could be
in the form of partnerships or other forms of
alliance between the project sponsor of a
modular refinery and the holder of an onshore
producing asset, with the modular refinery cited close to the field, thus guaranteeing
supply of crude and reducing the risks
associated with transportation of crude oil via
pipelines over long distances.
The perceived slow progress in the take-off of modular refineries prompted the Federal
Government to look to the Dangote 650,000
bpd oil refinery which is expected to
commence operations sometime in 2020, to
provide the much needed boost to Nigeria’s refining capacity. The Dangote refinery would
be a game changer for Nigeria, transporting
the country from an importer of petroleum
products to a major exporter of petroleum
products.
From all indicators, the Dangote refinery and
proposed modular refineries would not sound
the death knell for the nation’s existing refineries, as it appears that the Federal
Government is set to push ahead with its
proposed, comprehensive rehabilitation of the
refineries in Warri, Kaduna and Port Harcourt
in a bid to restore them to their nameplate production capacities. However, industry
watchers and analysts have remained
sceptical about the Federal Government’s
proposal to rehabilitate the government owned
refineries, given the numerous failed attempts to achieve the same objective, as well as
strong sentiments that the refineries would be
better off in private hands.
Federal Government looking up to Dangote
650,000 bpd oil refinery which is expected to commence operations sometime in 2020
Nigerian firm inaugurates $500m LNG plant in Rivers State
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
8
Nigeria’s gas market enjoyed the significant investment of a $500million mini-LNG plant
(the Plant) inaugurated in 2018 by Greenville
Oil and Gas Company Limited’s (Greenville),
an indigenous hydrocarbon company. The
Plant, located in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, has a production capacity of 2,250 tonnes per
day, circa 750 million tonnes per year.
Grenville’s investment in the Plant (which is a
first of its kind in Africa, according to reports),
typifies investor’s increased confidence in
Nigeria’s gas industry; and buttresses the available opportunities in Nigeria’s gas market.
A l t h o u g h , i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t t h e
implementation of the NGP, particularly the
reshaping of the regulatory landscape of the
gas industry, as envisaged by the NGP, will lead to a rise in investment activities, the
regulation of gas prices in the domestic market
will continue to be a deterrent to the huge
investment required to unlock Nigeria’s gas
potential.
The plant, in Port Harcourt, has a production capacity of
2,250 tonnes per day
MIDSTREAM ACTVITY
Nigeria Increases it’s proven and unproven gas reserves
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
9
In October 2018, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) disclosed an
increase in Nigeria’s current proven gas
reserves from 199 trillion standard cubic feet
(scf) to 202 trillion scf, while unproven gas
reserves now stand at about 600 trillion scf. This is a significant development as Nigeria
now has almost 10 times the Trinidadian
reserves base and is 9th in the world based on
proven gas reserves thus placing Nigeria
(which has been described as a gas province), in the same league as Iran, Qatar and Russia.
Discoveries in 2018 such as Shell’s discovery
of about .5 trillion cubic feet of gas and 42
Million barrels of condensate, in shallow and deep reservoirs, onshore Eastern Nigeria, also
helped to boost Nigeria’s gas reserves
estimates. Nigeria’s gas production for 2018
was in the region of about 8.5 billion scf per
day, of which 43% (about 3.7 billion scf per day) of total gas production was exported, 32%
(about 2.7 billion scf per day) used upstream
for gas re-injection and gas-lift, 18% (1.5billion
scf per day) utilised domestically for power
generation and industries, while the remainder (about 7% or 600 million scf per day)
accounted for flare gas.
GAS DEVELOPMENTS
8.5 billion scf per day
43%
32%18%
7%
Upstream
Exports
Domestic Use
Flared 3.7 billion (scf/d)
2.7 billion (scf/d)
1.5 billion (scf/d)
600 million (scf/d)
Nigeria’s gas production for 2018 was about
FGN Initiates Projects aimed at Improving Domestic Utilisation of Gas
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
10
Despite the current challenges impeding the development of a robust midstream gas sector
such as the absence of gas infrastructure as
well as regulated prices for downstream gas,
the Federal Government has initiated various
gas projects aimed at stimulating activities in the midstream sector –one of which is the
NNPC re-entry projects in Oredo, Utorogu and Odidi via its subsidiary – the Nigerian
Petroleum Development Company (NPDC),
which upon completion, would deliver an
additional 240 million scf per day to the
domestic market in 2019.
GAS DEVELOPMENTS
The NNPC has also made significant investment to promote the use of LPG with the revamp of the eight butanisation plants in: Apapa Ibadan Oshogbo Enugu Ilorin Gombe Makurdi Kano as part of its plan to connect all the stations through pipelines to bring LPG closer to consumers.
Other ongoing LPG projects which are expected to come on stream in 2019 include
the 12 metric million standard feet per day
(mmscfd) capac i ty LPG p lan t be ing
established by Green Energy International
Limited in Ikuru Town in Rivers state. The plant secured an approval to construct (ATC) from
the Department of Petroleum Resources
(DPR) in August 2018. The private sector has also renewed calls for value added tax on
locally produced LPG which has affected the
pricing and the demand for locally produced
LPG. It is believed that this would further boost
investments in the sector, stimulate local production and increase utilisation of LPG.
FGN Initiates Projects aimed at Improving Domestic Utilisation of Gas
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
11
On the private sector side, a number of gas utilization projects set up of private sector
players are scheduled to come on stream in a
couple of years with this there would be
increased supply of processed gas for use in
the domestic market.
In 2018, the NNPC also sealed a deal which
would allow for the development of a virtual
gas pipeline network for the power sector. The
project would involve the installation of “mini-LNG plants which will initially supply about 84
million scf of gas from production fields using
customised cryogenic tankers, to areas that are not easily accessible through pipelines.
Given the policy objectives of the Federal
Government as set out in the National Gas
Policy, investment opportunities abound in the
midstream gas sector, in areas such as pipelines, gas processing facilities, CNG, LPG,
LNG etc. What is required is government’s
willingness to deregulate downstream prices
as well as transit to a market led regime, which
would encourage entrants to invest in the sector.
GAS DEVELOPMENTS
NNPC sealed a deal for the development of a virtual gas pipeline network for the power sector
NNPC kick starts 7 critical gas projects across Nigeria to support 15GW of power generation
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
12
Nigeria’s focus towards establishing sustainable gas supply for the domestic market has been
evident in recent years with the development of
several infrastructure to harness the nation’s
gas reserves. This received a significant push
with NNPC signing agreements in Q3 2018 in respect of 7 Critical Gas Development Projects
(7CGDP) expected to deliver about 3.4 billion
standard cubic feet of gas per day (bscfd). The
7CGDP which comprises the development of
(x) the 4.3 trillion cubic feet (TCF) Assa North/Ohaji South field; (y) the 6.4 TCF Unitized Gas
Fields; (z) the 7.0 TCF NPDC’s OML 26, 30 &
42; (xx) the 2.2 TCF Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) JV Gas Supply
to Brass Fertilizer Company; (yy) the 5.0 TCF
OML 13 to support the expansion of Seven
Energy Uquo Gas Plant; and (zz) the Cluster
development of TCF Okpokunou/Tuomo West (OML 35 & 62) is expected to bridge medium
term gas supply gap by 2020.
The 7CGDP are also expected to generate at
least 15 gigawatts (GW) of electricity by 2020 and close the demand-supply gap in the
domestic gas market.
GAS DEVELOPMENTS
15 GW of electricity by 2020
The 7CGDP are also expected to generate at least
Marginal Field Bid Rounds
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
13
Although the 2018 marginal field bid round
which has been in the offing did not kick off in
2018, all sights are now set on a 2019 post-
election date for the marginal field bid rounds.
Expectedly, this Bid Round will bring more
players to the table- new consortia as well as
independents who will be looking to diversify
their asset portfolio.. Additionally, the
government has raised concerns on the poor
performance of many previous marginal field
awardees, prompting calls for revocation of
some of the awards, and for tighter measures
in selecting preferred bidders for the next
round.
ASSET ACQUIS I T IONS
all sights are now set on a
2019 post-election
date for the marginal field bid
rounds
2018 did not see any major asset divestments or acquisitions save for a number of isolated deals
such as the Petrobras divestment of some of its holdings as well as a number of quiet deals by one
or two of the oil majors. It is not clear yet whether 2019 will see any significant deal activity
especially in light of the general elections scheduled for Q1 2019 and the fact that a number of
assets are due for renewal, however we do expect that as the year matures, there might be the odd
deal or two on the table.. However, one area that is generally acclaimed as long overdue, is the
marginal field bid rounds, given that the last bid rounds occurred about ten years ago
Renewal of OMLs in 2019
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
14
About 42 oil mining leases are due to expire in 2019 and the renewal of these leases are
expected to trigger inflow of investments for
further development of the petroleum assets
so as to boost reserves. The process for
renewal of some of these leases has already commenced and some OML holders have
already secured approval for renewal of some
of the leases that were due for renew. It is
expected that the renewal of some of the leases which are still pending, would continue
next year, although perhaps with some delays,
given the up-coming elections. With renewal
processes and grants out of the way, we
expect that the much needed fresh round of investments in the affected assets will be
triggered, thus paving way for fresh activity in
the industry.
REGULATORY
About 42 oil mining leases are due to expire this year and the renewal of these leases are expected to trigger inflow of investments
DPR issues new safety guidelines for depots across Nigeria
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
15
The DPR raised the Health, Safety and Environment (“HSE”) bar in Nigeria’s oil sector
by issuing a new safety guideline in Q3 2018
known as the Minimum Industry Safety Training
(Guidelines), which is aimed at preventing fire
outbreaks at fuel depots as well as catering for the safety and protection of depots across the
country. The Guidelines make it mandatory for
every depot to have safety kits for downstream
facilities and the personnel who work there.
The Guidelines are a welcome development in
the oil and gas industry following the recent fire
outbreaks that have been plaguing depots
across the country such as the Linc Oil incident
in Q3, 2017 at the Linc Oil and Gas Depot, Calabar, the Apapa PWA loading jetty incident
shortly afterwards and the inferno which occurred at Stallionaire Oil Depot, Ijegun
Satelite Town, Ijegun, Lagos.
Following the Loss Time Injury incidents (“LTI”),
the DPR sought to attain zero LTI in the downstream sector in 2018 and the Guidelines
are one of the means by which the DPR seeks
to achieve this. However, beyond the
Guidelines, there is the need for HSE
compliance by operators, the DPR and other regulatory agencies. Recognizing the need for
strict HSE standards, the DPR have made
compliance with the guidelines a prerequisite
for the yearly renewal of operating licences by
operators.
REGULATORY
Guidelines make it mandatory for
every depot to have safety kits for downstream
facilities and the personnel who
work there
Passage of the PIGB: NNPC prepares for listing of 40% of its shares on the Nigeria Stock Exchange
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
16
At the 2018 annual conference of the Association of Energy Correspondents of
Nigeria (NAEC), the GMD of the NNPC
announced that 40% of the shares of the
NNPC would be floated at the NSE when the
PIGB gets Presidential Assent. The PIGB, which is one of the four derivative bills that
emanated from the PIB, aims at achieving: (i)
the creation of efficient and effective governing
institutions with clear and separate roles for the
petroleum industry; (ii) the establishment of a framework for the creation (out of existing
government-owned entities) of commercially
oriented and profit driven entities that will
ensure value-add and internationalization of
the petroleum industry; (iii) the promotion of transparency and accountability in the
petroleum industry; and (iv) the creation of a
conducive business environment for operators
in the petroleum industry.
When passed into law, the PIGB will require the Minister to within six months after its
enactment take necessary steps under the
Nigerian Companies and Allied Matters Act to
incorporate two entities, namely – the Nigerian
Petroleum Assets Management Company (NPAMC) and the Nigerian Petroleum
Company (NPC) which will be vested with
certain liabilities and assets of the NNPC. The
NPC shall be an integrated oil and gas
company operating across the value chain and vested with the responsibility of overseeing all
of NNPC’s assets, with the exception of assets
held under Production Sharing Contracts.
How the passage of the PIGB and the other components parts of the PIB will play out in
2019 cannot be predicted with exactitude but
we do expect there will be some movement on
the matter particularly post the 2019 general elections.
REGULATORY
40% of shares of the NNPC may be
floated at the NSE when the PIGB secures Presidential Assent
Local Content Strides in 2018
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
17
In furtherance of its statutory mandate, the Nigerian
Content Development and Monitoring Board
(NCDMB) employed various strategies in 2018, to
increase local content penetration in the oil and gas
sector. Notably, the NCDMB initiated plans to
capitalise a $200million Nigerian Content Intervention
Fund (NCIF) capable of facilitating 100 per cent local
fabrication for refineries. The NCDMB also made a
$10 million investment in the Waltersmith modular
refinery to be located at the firm’s oil field at Ibigwe,
Imo State, as part of its commitment to support the
take-off of modular refinery projects.
The NCDMB also proposed that a significant portion
of the engineering, procurement and construction
work for the planned 7 billion dollar Nigeria Liquefied
Natural Gas (NLNG) Limited Train 7 plant will be done
in-country by mostly Nigerian companies as part of
effort to ensure local content drive in the country.
Apparently, the NCDMB is leveraging on what had
been achieved with the Egina Floating Production
Storage and Offloading oil platform built by Total, as a
basis to assess new projects.
For the Egina project, more than half of the man
power involved in the project infrastructure were
Nigerians, and about 70% of the hours spent on the
project was onsite in Port Harcourt and Lagos. Nearly
one third of the project’s equipment requirements was
manufactured locally while infrastructure in the
country was enhanced, such as the construction of a
500-meter-long dock to assemble the FPSO.
This is a welcome development as it is in line with the
Federal Government’s resolve for the promotion of
local content as encapsulated in the Nigerian Oil and
Gas Industry Content Development Act 2010 which
governs local content requirements and sets targets
for the level of Nigerian content that must be achieved
in various categories.
As there is still a technical knowledge gap for
Nigerians in the Oil and Gas sector, it is important that
the necessary skills and know-how are developed by
Nigerians in this field and this can only be achieved
through conscious participation by Nigerians in Oil
and Gas Projects.
REGULATORY
…more than half of the man power involved in the project
infrastructure were Nigerians, and about 70% of the hours spent on the project was onsite in Port Harcourt and Lagos.
The Minister of Petroleum issues the Flare Gas (Prevention of Waste and Pollution) Regulations
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
18
The launch of the FG’s Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) in
2016 received a major boost in 2018 with the
issuance and gazetting of the Flare Gas
(Prevent ion o f Waste and Po l lu t ion
Regulations), 2018 (the Regulations) in Q3 2018..
The Regulations vest ownership of flare gas in
the FG and provides for a competitive bidding
process, wherein qualified bidders would be issued permits to take flare gas on behalf of
the Federal Government from flare sites, thus
res t r ic t ing the Producer ’s ab i l i ty to
commercialise flare gas produced at such flare
sites. Notably, only Nigerian companies in the midstream sector are eligible to participate in
the bidding process, which commenced in Q4
2018.
The Regulations further prohibits gas flaring for greenfield projects and imposes new
penalties on gas flaring from brownfield
projects, including revocation of a producer’s
Oil Mining Lease or Marginal Field award.
On a general note, the Regulations are a
remarkable departure from the previous gas
re-injection regime under the Associated Gas
Re-injection Act, which was merely a pollution
prevention initiative with no apparent commercial value proposition. It is believed
that the Regulations are a statement of the
intent of the political will and the determination
of public sector stakeholders in the oil and gas
industry to realise the objectives of the Gas Policy. With an equal measure of tenacity on
the implementation front, Nigeria’s gas
industry may well begin to take shape sooner
than anticipated.
REGULATORY
The Regulations
prohibits gas flaring
for greenfield projects and imposes new
penalties
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
19
7CGDPs
ATC
7 Critical Gas Development Projects
Approval to Construct
BPD Barrels Per Day
BSCFD Standard Cubic Feet of Gas Per Day
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
DPR Department of Petroleum Resources
FG Federal Government
FGN Federal Government of Nigeria
FPSO Floating Production Storage and Offloading
FTZ Free Trade Zones
FPSO Floating Production Storage and Offloading
GMD General Managing Director
GW Gigawatts
HSE Health Safety and Environment
JV Joint Ventures
LPG Liquefied petroleum gas or Liquid petroleum gas
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
LTI Loss Time injury
MMSCFD Million Standard Cubic Feet per Day
NAEC National Association of Energy Correspondents of Nigeria
NCDMB Nigerian Content Development Monitoring Board
NCIF Nigerian Content Intervention Fund
GLOSSARY
Oil & Gas Annual Review 2018
20
NGP National Gas Policy
NGFCP Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme
NNPC Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation
NLNG Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Limited
NPC Nigerian Petroleum Company
NPDC Nigerian Petroleum Development Company
NPAMC Nigerian Petroleum Assets Management Company
NSE Nigerian Stock Exchange
OML Oil Mining Lease
OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
PIB Petroleum Industry Bill
PIGB Petroleum Industry Governance Bill
SCF Standard Cubic Feet
SCF/D Standard Cubic Feet Per Day
SPDC Shell Petroleum Development Company
TCF Trillion Cubic Feet
USD United States Dollars
GLOSSARY
CONTACT US
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