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Oilseed markets situation
2005-2006
IOPD IX
June 16-17,2006 San Francisco
Continuous increase in world consumption,driven by Asian demand
Asia-EU-North America : 80% of world oilseeds consumption
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
OILS : DISAPPEARANCE (MnT)
ASIA
North America
EU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
MEALS : DISAPPEARANCE (Mn T)
ASIA
EU
North America
Chinese imports of soybean and products: nearly 10% annual increase since 1995
Asia-EU : close to 80% of world soya imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
SOYA (Seeds, meals and oils, MnT)
EU-25
ASIA (incl. China)
CHINA
World oiseeds production: still above the long term trend in 2005/06 (+ 5 %)
+17 Mn T
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06
OILSEEDS : WORLD PRODUCTION (Mn T)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06
OILSEEDS : WORLD PRODUCTION (Mn T)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
03/04 04/05 05/06
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Fin. Stocks Stocks/Disappear.
Mn T
But global stocks are increasing s'accroissent
Ratio
All oilseeds: +2% to +3%
Soybeans: limited increase
Other oilseeds: supply remains at a high level
World oilseeds production: slight increase in 2005/06 after a jump in 2004/05
EVOLUTION DE LA PRODUCTION MONDIALE DE SOJA
MnT USA South Am. China India Others TOTAL
00/01 75,1 71,2 15,4 5,0 8,6 175,3
01/02 78,7 77,3 15,4 5,4 7,7 184,5
02/03 75,0 92,8 16,5 4,3 8,0 196,7
03/04 66,8 88,1 15,4 6,8 8,0 185,1
04/05 84,4 98,6 17,6 5,8 9,2 215,6
05/06 84,0 100,8 17,4 6,6 10,1 218,9
MnT Brazil Argentina Bolivia Paraguay Uruguay
00/01 39,1 27,4 1,2 3,5 0,0
01/02 42,8 30,0 1,2 3,3 0,0
02/03 52,0 34,8 1,7 4,2 0,1
03/04 50,1 32,0 1,5 4,1 0,4
04/05 52,8 39,6 1,7 4,1 0,5
05/06 55,0 39,8 1,8 3,7 0,6
SOYBEANS : WORLD PRODUCTION (MnT)
US soybeans: relative stability of areas, abundant crops in 04/05 and 05/06 thanks to good yields
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
Area Mn Ha
Yields T/Ha
South America: increase in soybean areas is slowing down from 2005/06, in particular in Brazil
SOYBEAN area in South America (Mn Ha)
0
5
10
15
20
25
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07
Brazil
Argentina
Others
Soybean: a new supply/demand balance shaping up for 2006/07
SOYBEANS : WORLD PRODUCTION AND DISAPPEARANCE (Mn T)
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07p
Production
Disappearance
Rapeseed: high but stable production in Europe, increasing supply on the world market
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06
RAPESEED : WORLD PRODUCTION (MnT)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06
RAPESEED PRODUCTION (MnT)
Canada
EU-25
Rapeseed: increasing areas
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06
RAPESEED : WORLD AREA (Mn Ha)
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06
RAPESEED AREA (MnHa)
Canada
EU-25
Rapeseed: 2004 and 2005 yields in the major EU producing countries
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 (q/ha)
2004 yields
5 year average(1999-2003)
+20%
2005 yields
+25%
+42%
+51%
+22%
+14%
+31%
+17%
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08
Rapeseed production and crushing in the EU-25 (Mn T)
Rapeseed: favorable perspectives with increasing crushing capacities
CRUSHINGPRODUCTION
Sunflower: world production Significant increase in production, with the help of good yields, in
Russia/Ukraine Production around 4 Mn T in the EU-25 since 1999
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06
SUNFLOWERSEED : WORLD PRODUCTION (MnT)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06
SUNFLOWERSEED PRODUCTION (MnT)
Russia/Ukraine
Romania/Bulgaria
Argentina
EU-25
Sunflower: world areas
Area increase in Russia/Ukraine Decrease in the EU 25, with 2 MnHa
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06
SUNFLOWERSEED : WORLD AREA (Mn Ha)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06
SUNFLOWERSEED AREA (Mn Ha)
Russia/Ukraine
Rumania/Bulgaria
Argentina
EU-25
Palm oil: increasing production and growing share of Indonesia
Mn T Malaysia Indonesia Others Total
00/01 11,9 7,7 4,1 23,7 01/02 11,9 8,9 4,6 25,4 02/03 13,2 10,4 4,6 28,2 03/04 13,4 12,0 4,5 29,9 04/05 15,2 13,4 4,7 33,3 05/06 14,6 14,9 4,9 34,4
PALM OIL : WORLD PRODUCTION (MnT)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06
Malaysia
Indonesia
Others
Total
Mn T
Vegetable oils: world consumption is in progress, rape oil takes a growing part with biodiesel since 2002/03
OILS : WORLD DISAPPEARANCE (Mn T)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06
Soya
Rape
SunflowerPalm
EU : consumption increases for all oils, more pronouncedly for rapeseed and palm oils
UE : OIL DISAPPEARANCE (MnT)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06
Sunflower
Soya
Palm
Rape
EU: strong growth in rapeseed oil demand, on the account of biofuels
EU - RAPE OIL DISAPPEARANCE (Mn T)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06
Biofuels
Others (mainlyfood)
EU becoming a net importer of rapeseed and soybean oils
EU - TRADE BALANCE OF MAJOR OILS (Mn T)
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Soya RapeSunflower Palm
Increasing utilisations of rapeseed oil Decreasing crushings (and imports) of soybeans, while soybean oil
consumption increases
EU - TRADE BALANCE OF MAJOR OILS (MnT)03/04 04/05 05/06
ImportsSoya 0,1 0,2 0,6Rape 0,0 0,0 0,3Sunflower 0,6 0,8 1,1Palm 3,8 4,5 4,8
ExportsSoya 0,5 0,5 0,3Rape 0,1 0,1 0,1Sunflower 0,2 0,1 0,9Palm 0,1 0,1 0,1
BalanceSoya 0,5 0,3 -0,3Rape 0,1 0,1 -0,3Sunflower -0,4 -0,7 -0,1Palm -3,8 -4,5 -4,8
Oilmeal prices in dollars slightly under long term average
SOYMEAL $/ T Chicago
150
200
250
300
350
400
juil-01 juil-02 juil-03 juil-04 juil-05
20 years average :205 $/T
Vegetable oils prices slightly above long term average on the world market
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
juil-01 juil-02 juil-03 juil-04 juil-05 juil-06
$/T, Rotterdam
SOYBEAN OIL
PALM OIL
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06
average prices 1986-2005
Oils in Europe: reinforced premium for rapeseed, driven by biodiesel, large world supplies bearing on sunflower
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
juil-01 juil-02 juil-03 juil-04 juil-05 juil-06
$/T, North Europe
SOYA OIL
PALM OIL
SUN OIL
RAPE OIL
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06
Soybeans: also at a relatively low price
SOYBEANS$/T CHICAGO
150
200
250
300
350
400
juil-01 juil-02 juil-03 juil-04 juil-05
20 years average :230 $/T
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
juil-01 juil-02 juil-03 juil-04 juil-05 juil-06
RAPESEED : CIF Rotterdam
€/T
$/T
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06
Rapeseed: the price has been penalised by a deficit of crushing capacity (and by the exchange rate in EU)
average prices 1986-2005
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
juil-01 juil-02 juil-03 juil-04 juil-05 juil-06
Sunflowerseed CIF Rhin
€/T
$/T
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06
Sunflowerseed: the price has been penalised by ample world supplies (and by the exchange rate in EU)
average prices 1986-2005