Old Dominion Poll Frequencies - ODUexit poll. 2. 2004 turnout model – poll respondents were weighted by age, race, gender, and income to resemble the 2004 presidential election electorate

Old Dominion Poll

Frequencies: Pre and Post Debate

Analysis by Jesse Richman, PHD

Faculty Director of the Social Science Research Center

Methods The Old Dominion Poll was funded by Old Dominion University to investigate the attitudes and views of

Virginians on key state and national issues. This poll is the fourth in a two-year series. The focus is on

the upcoming Presidential and Senatorial elections.

Data collection was conducted by the Social Science Research Institute at Old Dominion University with

calls made by the SSRC CATI lab. Calls were made between September 19th and October 17th 2012. Calls

were made both during the day and in the evening. The total sample consisted of 975 calls, including

349 calls to cell phone numbers.

One of the challenges faced by public opinion polling organizations is the rapid replacement of land-line

telephones with cellular telephones. Legal restrictions on calls to cell phones require that all such calls

be hand-dialed, and this raises the cost of cell phone samples, even though cell phones now have a

substantially broader market penetration than do land-line phones.

After the data was collected, the cell phone and land-line telephone number samples were combined

and weighted to reflect the most recent estimates of the percentage of land line only, both, and cell

phone only users (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr061.pdf). Sampling both cell phones and land-

lines increases the odds that those with both types of phones will be contacted relative to those with

only one type of phone.

All reported results are for likely and motivated voters. In particular only voters who indicated that they

were either very likely or very motivated to vote (or both) are included in the analysis.

All questions are analyzed on the basis of the baseline selection and weighting criteria described above.

For these analyses the margin of error is 3.4 percent. In addition, results for some questions are also

presented based on two other models of who will participate in the 2012 election – 2008 and 2004 exit

poll demographics.

1. 2008 turnout model – poll respondents were weighted by age, race, gender, and income to

resemble the 2008 presidential election electorate composition according to the 2008 Virginia

exit poll.

2. 2004 turnout model – poll respondents were weighted by age, race, gender, and income to

resemble the 2004 presidential election electorate composition according to the 2004 Virginia

exit poll.

Both the 2004 and 2008 turnout models tend to favor Obama relative to the baseline model, and the

baseline model most closely reflects the composition of the electorate in the 2009 Virginia governor’s

race. This largely reflects the impact of weighting by race and age. The baseline likely voter sample

included 73.8 percent who identified themselves as white which is less than the 78 percent of the

electorate which identified as white in the 2009 exit poll, but more than the 70 percent (2008) and 72

percent (2004) of the electorate which identified as white in recent presidential election exit polls in

Virginia. The sample also tends to include more old voters than young voters. 9.7 percent of the baseline

sample is under 30, but voters under 30 made up 22 percent of the electorate in 2008 and 17 percent of

the electorate in 2004. In 2009 the exit poll found that only 11 percent of the electorate in Virginia was

under 30.

Many questions below are analyzed for two important subsamples. Before the first presidential debate on

October 3, 2012, and after the first presidential debate. As can be seen below, there were important

shifts in voter preference associated with the first presidential debate. The margin of error for the pre-

debate subsample is 4.3 percent, and the margin of error for the post-debate subsample is 5.5 points.

Prior to the debate, a majority of respondents indicated an intention to vote for Barack Obama for

President. After the debate, a plurality of respondents indicated an intention to vote for Mitt Romney.

Across a range of issues and impressions, Mitt Romney substantially improved his standing with Virginia

voters. More respondents developed a positive view of Mr. Romney, and majorities shifted toward

trusting Romney more on the critical issue of the economy.

One of the intriguing effects of the first debate was a shift in public preference away from maintenance of

the Bush tax cuts and towards “something else” such as Romney’s tax proposal.

Mr. Romney’s rise after the first debate also appears to have had some effect on views in the Senate

race, with Tim Kaine strongly ahead before the debate and less distinctly ahead afterwards. Most of the

shift appears to be accounted for in a decline in Mr. Kaine’s favorability rating, perhaps a consequence of

the close ties between Kaine and Obama. None the less, the results suggest that Allen is now running

somewhat weaker than Romney in Virginia, so it appears quite plausible that Romney could carry the

state’s electoral votes at the same time that Kaine is elected to the Senate.

Frequencies for Survey Questions Note: all analyses are for the baseline sample unless otherwise noted.

If the 2012 Presidential election was held today, would you vote for...

Total

Before First Presidential

Debate

After First Presidential

Debate

Democratic Party candidate Barack Obama

302 163 465

54.4% 43.8% 50.2%

Republican Party candidate Mitt Romney

223 177 400

40.2% 47.6% 43.1%

Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode

3 4 7

0.5% 1.1% 0.8%

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson

4 6 10

0.7% 1.6% 1.1%

Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2 3 5

0.4% 0.8% 0.5%

Undecided 15 11 26

2.7% 3.0% 2.8%

Don't know 2 2 4

0.4% 0.5% 0.4%

Refused 4 6 10

0.7% 1.6% 1.1%

Total 555 372 927

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

ALTERNATIVE TURNOUT MODELS


(Weighted to reflect age, race, gender, and income demographics of 2008 VA Exit Poll)

Total


Debate


Debate

Democratic Party candidate Barack Obama 56.7% 47.6% 52.9%

Republican Party candidate Mitt Romney 37.1% 41.5% 38.9%

Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode 0.5% 1.2% 0.8%

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson 0.9% 1.9% 1.3%

Green Party candidate Jill Stein 0.5% 1.2% 0.8%

Undecided 3.1% 2.9% 3.0%

Don't know 0.5% 1.0% 0.7%

Refused 0.7% 2.7% 1.5% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


(Weighted to reflect demographics of 2004 VA Exit Poll)

Total


Debate


Debate




Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson 0.9% 2.0% 1.3%

Green Party candidate Jill Stein 0.3% 1.0% 0.6%

Undecided 3.6% 3.0% 3.3%

Don't know 0.3% 0.7% 0.5%

Refused 1.0% 2.5% 1.6% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

If the 2012 Virginia Senate election was held today, would you vote for...

Total


Debate


Debate


Republican Party candidate George Allen 228 170 398

41.1% 45.7% 42.9%

Democratic Party candidate Tim Kaine 295 172 467

53.2% 46.2% 50.4%

Undecided 21 22 43

3.8% 5.9% 4.6%

Don't know 7 3 10

1.3% 0.8% 1.1%

Refused 4 5 9

0.7% 1.3% 1.0%

Total 555 372 927

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


Total


Debate


Debate


Republican Party candidate George Allen 38.6% 41.6% 39.8%

Democratic Party candidate Tim Kaine 54.7% 49.9% 52.7%

Undecided 4.6% 6.3% 5.3%

Don't know 1.4% 0.7% 1.1%

Refused 0.7% 1.5% 1.0%


Total


Debate


Debate




Undecided 4.9% 6.2% 5.5%

Don't know 1.2% 1.0% 1.1%

Refused 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe will win the presidential election IN VIRGINIA?

Total


Debate


Debate

Mitt Romney 186 169 355

33.5% 45.3% 38.3%

Barack Obama

323 163 486

58.2% 43.7% 52.4%

Another candidate

3 1 4

0.5% 0.3% 0.4%

Don't know 42 37 79

7.6% 9.9% 8.5%

Refused 1 3 4

0.2% 0.8% 0.4%

Total 555 373 928

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

We'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have no opinion of

them: Barack Obama

Total


Debate


Debate

Favorable 315 186 501

56.8% 49.9% 54.0%

Unfavorable 200 153 353

36.0% 41.0% 38.0%

No opinion 39 33 72

7.0% 8.8% 7.8%

Refused 1 1 2

0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Total 555 373 928

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Mitt Romney

Total


Debate


Debate


41.4% 51.7% 45.6%


44.0% 36.2% 40.8%

No opinion 79 44 123

14.2% 11.8% 13.3%

Don't know who this is 1 0 1

0.2% 0.0% 0.1%

Refused 1 1 2

0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Total 555 373 928

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

We'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have no opinion of

them: George Allen

Total


Debate


Debate

George Allen


42.2% 42.9% 42.5%


36.8% 33.2% 35.4%


19.9% 22.5% 20.9%


0.9% 1.3% 1.1%

Refused 1 0 1

0.2% 0.0% 0.1%

Total 554 373 927

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Tim Kaine

Total


Debate


Debate

Tim Kaine


50.9% 43.0% 47.7%


29.6% 32.5% 30.8%


18.6% 21.8% 19.9%


0.7% 2.4% 1.4%

Refused 1 1 2

0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Total 554 372 926

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

On the whole, do you think the United States is better off or worse off today than it was in January 2009?

Total


Debate


Debate

On the whole, do you think the United States is better off or worse off today than it was in January 2009?

Better off 271 143 414

48.8% 38.4% 44.7%

About the same

39 47 86

7.0% 12.6% 9.3%

Worse off 241 179 420

43.4% 48.1% 45.3%

Don't know 3 2 5

0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Refused 1 1 2

0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Total 555 372 927

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

If elected President, who do you think will do a better job with the economy, Obama or Romney

Total


Debate


Debate

Barack Obama 282 155 437

50.9% 41.7% 47.2%


44.0% 52.7% 47.5%

Neither (vol) 12 7 19

2.2% 1.9% 2.1%

Both would do an equally good job (vol) 4 7 11

0.7% 1.9% 1.2%

Don't know 12 4 16

2.2% 1.1% 1.7%

Refused 0 3 3

0.0% 0.8% 0.3%

Total 554 372 926

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

If elected President, who do you think will do a better job with national defense, Obama or Romney?

Total


Debate


Debate


52.1% 43.4% 48.6%


42.5% 50.9% 45.9%


1.3% 0.8% 1.1%


1.3% 2.4% 1.7%

Don't know 16 7 23

2.9% 1.9% 2.5%

Refused 0 2 2

0.0% 0.5% 0.2%

Total 555 373 928

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

If elected President, who do you think would do a better job of handling challenges with the rising cost of entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, Obama or

Romney?

Total


Debate


Debate


53.9% 47.3% 51.2%


39.5% 46.0% 42.1%


3.6% 2.4% 3.1%


0.7% 0.5% 0.6%

Don't know 11 11 22

2.0% 3.0% 2.4%

Refused 2 3 5

0.4% 0.8% 0.5%

Total 555 372 927

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

How honest do you think the political advertisements from Mitt Romney and his supporters have been during this election?

Total


Debate


Debate

Very honest 84 47 131

15.1% 12.7% 14.1%

Somewhat honest 182 161 343

32.7% 43.4% 37.0%

Not very honest 177 86 263

31.8% 23.2% 28.4%

Not at all honest 94 63 157

16.9% 17.0% 16.9%

Don't know 16 10 26

2.9% 2.7% 2.8%

Refused 3 4 7

0.5% 1.1% 0.8%

Total 556 371 927

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

How honest do you think the political advertisements from Barack Obama and his supporters

have been during this election?

Total


Debate


Debate

Very honest 95 45 140

17.1% 12.1% 15.1%

Somewhat honest 239 176 415

43.1% 47.3% 44.8%

Not very honest 134 95 229

24.2% 25.5% 24.7%

Not at all honest 69 45 114

12.5% 12.1% 12.3%

Don't know 13 9 22

2.3% 2.4% 2.4%

Refused 4 2 6

0.7% 0.5% 0.6%

Total 554 372 926

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Who do you think has run a more negative campaign so far, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Total


Debate


Debate


47.7% 35.8% 42.9%


32.6% 37.1% 34.4%

Both are negative

86 82 168

15.5% 22.0% 18.1%

Both are positive

4 2 6

0.7% 0.5% 0.6%

Don't know 17 13 30

3.1% 3.5% 3.2%

Refused 2 4 6

0.4% 1.1% 0.6%

Total 555 372 927

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Now I have some questions about your policy preferences. Do you think that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (commonly referred to as ObamaCare) should be...

Total


Debate


Debate

Repealed 175 137 312

31.5% 36.6% 33.6%

Partially repealed

111 70 181

20.0% 18.7% 19.5%

Left in place 129 84 213

23.2% 22.5% 22.9%

Expanded 119 70 189

21.4% 18.7% 20.3%

Don't know 20 12 32

3.6% 3.2% 3.4%

Refused 1 1 2

0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Total 555 374 929

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

When the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of 2012 should we...

Total


Debate


Debate

Keep all of the tax cuts 155 90 245

27.9% 24.2% 26.4%

Keep only tax cuts for those earning LESS THAN $250,000

228 124 352

41.1% 33.3% 38.0%

Keep none of the tax cuts 38 41 79

6.8% 11.0% 8.5%

Something else 105 96 201

18.9% 25.8% 21.7%

Don't know 28 19 47

5.0% 5.1% 5.1%

Refused 1 2 3

0.2% 0.5% 0.3%

Total 555 372 927

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Do you think that the defense spending sequester should go into effect? (Asked only of respondents who indicated they had heard of the sequester.)

Total


Debate


Debate

Yes 100 63 163

28.6% 24.9% 27.0%

No 226 170 396

64.6% 67.2% 65.7%

Don't know 22 19 41

6.3% 7.5% 6.8%

Refused 2 1 3

0.6% 0.4% 0.5%

Total 350 253 603

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

When it comes to politics do you usually think of yourself as ...

Total


Debate


Debate

Extremely liberal 19 10 29

3.4% 2.7% 3.1%

Liberal 87 57 144

15.7% 15.3% 15.6%

Slightly liberal 51 32 83

9.2% 8.6% 9.0%

Moderate, middle of the road

159 104 263

28.7% 28.0% 28.4%

Slightly conservative 65 44 109

11.7% 11.8% 11.8%

Conservative 136 95 231

24.5% 25.5% 24.9%

Extremely Conservative

24 15 39

4.3% 4.0% 4.2%

Don't Know/ Haven't thought much about this

12 10 22

2.2% 2.7% 2.4%

Refused 1 5 6

0.2% 1.3% 0.6%

Total 554 372 926

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Do you generally feel closer to the Republican Party, the Democratic Party or do you consider

yourself to be an Independent or something else?

Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent

Republican 255 27.5 27.5 27.5

Democrat 313 33.7 33.7 61.2

Independent 317 34.2 34.2 95.4

Something else (SPECIFY) 39 4.2 4.2 99.6

Don't know 1 .1 .1 99.6

Refused 3 .4 .4 100.0

Total 927 100.0 100.0

How would you describe your race or ethnicity?


Valid

White 684 73.8 73.8 73.8

Black or African American 158 17.1 17.1 90.9

Hispanic or Latino 12 1.3 1.3 92.2

American Indian or Alaskan Native

4 .5 .5 92.7

Asian 19 2.0 2.0 94.7

Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander

6 .6 .6 95.3

Multiracial 21 2.2 2.2 97.6

Other 1 .1 .1 97.7

Refused 22 2.3 2.3 100.0

Total 927 100.0 100.0

What is your annual household income? I will read a list and you can stop me when I get to

the category that includes your household income.


Valid

Less than $15,000 67 7.2 7.2 7.2

More than $15,000 to $30,000

91 9.8 9.8 17.1

More than $30, 000 to $50,000

143 15.4 15.4 32.5

More than $50,000 to $75,000

170 18.4 18.4 50.9

More than $75,000 to $100,000

134 14.4 14.4 65.3

More than $100,000 to $150,000

125 13.4 13.4 78.7

More than $150,000 to $200,000

65 7.0 7.0 85.7

More than $200,000 51 5.5 5.5 91.2

Don't know 13 1.4 1.4 92.5

Refused 69 7.5 7.5 100.0

Total 927 100.0 100.0

I need to confirm your gender, you are ...


Valid

Male 423 45.7 45.7 45.7

Female 502 54.2 54.2 99.8

Refused 2 .2 .2 100.0

Total 927 100.0 100.0

What is the highest level of school you have completed?


Some grade school 6 .7 .7 .7

Some high school 22 2.4 2.4 3.1

High school diploma or GED 164 17.7 17.8 20.9

Completed trade/ professional school

17 1.9 1.9 22.8

Some College 159 17.2 17.3 40.2

Associate's Degree 80 8.6 8.7 48.8

Bachelor's Degree 254 27.4 27.6 76.5

Graduate Degree (Masters, PhD, Doctorate, MD, JD)

216 23.3 23.5 100.0

Total 919 99.2 100.0 Missing Refused 8 .8 Total 927 100.0

Age Six Categories


18 to 24 61 6.6 6.7 6.7

25 to 29 60 6.4 6.6 13.3

30 to 39 99 10.7 10.9 24.2

40 to 49 140 15.1 15.4 39.6

50 to 64 319 34.4 35.0 74.6

65 and above 231 24.9 25.4 100.0

Total 910 98.1 100.0 Refused 17 1.9 Total 927 100.0

Age Four Categories


18 to 29 121 13.0 13.3 13.3

30 to 44 163 17.6 17.9 31.2

45 to 59 289 31.2 31.8 63.0

60 and above 337 36.3 37.0 100.0

Total 910 98.1 100.0 Refused 17 1.9 Total 927 100.0

Phone Usage Categories


Landline Only 71 7.7 7.7 7.7

Both 613 66.1 66.1 73.8

Cell Only 243 26.2 26.2 100.0

Total 927 100.0 100.0

SELECTED CROSSTABS: Gender

The Partisan Gender Gap in Virginia

Gender Total

Male Female

Do you generally feel closer

to the Republican Party, the

Democratic Party or do you

consider yourself to be an

Independent or something

else?

Republican 27.8% 27.5% 27.7%

Democrat 24.2% 41.9% 33.8%

Independent 45.1% 29.1% 36.4%

Something else (SPECIFY) 2.9% 1.4% 2.1%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Men and women were equally likely to respond that they identified with the Republican Party, but there was a huge gap in partisan identification between men and women for the Democratic Party. Men were much more likely to consider themselves to be independents or “something else”. These results are somewhat unusual: typically more men than women identified as Republicans, but we found virtually no difference. The result is problematic for Romney and Allen: they lack an identification advantage among men to make up for the identification disadvantage they face among women. The difference between men and women’s attitudes is statistically significant (p<.001). The much higher portion of independents suggests that men are much more in play in this election than are women.

Gender Gap in View of Obama is Large

Gender Total

Male Female

Barack Obama

Favorable 47.2% 60.1% 54.2%

Unfavorable 44.3% 32.9% 38.1%

No opinion 8.5% 7.0% 7.7%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Gender Gap in View of Mitt Romney is Modest

Gender Total

Male Female

Mitt Romney

Favorable 50.2% 41.8% 45.7%

Unfavorable 36.7% 44.6% 41.0%

No opinion 13.0% 13.3% 13.2%

Don't know who this is 0.2% 0.1%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Overall, 47 percent of men have a favorable view of Barack Obama while 50.2 percent have a

favorable view of Mitt Romney – very little difference. However, there is a very large difference

in candidate view among women. Both genders responded similarly to the first presidential

debate, however, with a down-shift in Obama’s favorability rating of about 7 points (perhaps

slightly more for men) and a jump in Romney’s favorability rating by 12 points among men and

8 points among women (neither difference between the genders is statistically significant).

Gender Gap in the Presidential Candidate Support


Gender Total

Male Female




Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson 2.4% 1.1%

Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1.2% 0.5%

Undecided 3.1% 2.8% 3.0%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Men were also much more likely to indicate support for Romney than were women. Among women Obama had a nearly sixteen point lead. Among men, Romney was narrowly ahead, though the difference is within the margin of error. Another striking difference is the frequency of third party support across genders. 4.6 percent of men supported one of the three third-party candidates on the Virginia ballot. No women indicated support for Jill Stein or Gary Johnson.

Gender and beliefs about which Candidate will do a better job at managing the economy?

Gender Total

Male Female

Barack Obama 42.4% 53.0% 48.2%

Mitt Romney 54.0% 43.9% 48.5%

Neither 2.7% 1.6% 2.1%

Both would do an equally

good job 1.0% 1.4% 1.2%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

The gender gap extends to trust in the capabilities of the candidates to handle the economy and other

issues. In the overall sample, men and women nearly mirror each other, with men taking the view that

Romney will do a better job, and women the view that Obama will. There are some interesting

differences between the genders however in the way they responded to the first debate. Although both

came to take a less positive view of Obama on the economy, men responded much more sharply than did

women (see figure on next page).

The Gender Gap in the VA Senate Election: View of George Allen

Gender Total

Male Female

Favorable 48.8% 37.5% 42.6%

Unfavorable 35.8% 35.1% 35.4%

No opinion 14.5% 26.5% 21.0%

Don't know who this is 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

The Gender Gap in the VA Senate Election: View of Tim Kaine

Gender Total

Male Female

Tim Kaine

Favorable 47.2% 48.6% 47.9%

Unfavorable 33.2% 28.9% 30.8%

No opinion 18.5% 20.9% 19.8%

Don't know who this is 1.2% 1.6% 1.4%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Gender and Vote Preference: VA Senate Election

Gender Total

Male Female

If the 2012 Virginia Senate

election was held today,

would you vote for...



Undecided 4.6% 4.9% 4.7%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Overall, we see a gender gap in preferences for Allen versus Kaine. Although men and women have similar views of Kaine, men are much more likely to have positive views of Allen, and were also more likely to support Allen. Prior to the first presidential debate, Kaine was ahead among both groups, though with a 19 point margin among women and a four point margin among men. After the debate, Allen gained an edge (9 points) among men, but Kaine maintained a substantial lead among women (8 points). Since women typically vote more frequently than men, this puts Kaine slightly ahead overall.

Straight Ticket Party Voting?

Senate race

preference

Presidential Race Preference Total

Barack Obama Mitt Romney Virgil Goode Gary Johnson Jill Stein Undecided

George Allen 2.9% 90.2% 71.4% 80.0% 80.0% 24.0% 43.8%

Tim Kaine 93.8% 5.3% 28.6% 10.0% 20.0% 56.0% 51.8%

Undecided 3.3% 4.5% 10.0% 20.0% 4.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Most poll respondents plan to cast votes for the same candidate in the presidential and senate races. Obama and Kaine are more closely tied, with nearly 94 percent of Obama supporters indicating that they plan to vote for both. Romney and Allen are less closely linked, with just over 90 percent of respondents who support Romney planning to vote for Allen. Thus, an Obama victory in Virginia would likely be paired with a Kaine victory, but a Romney victory appears slightly less likely to lead to an Allen win.

Military Affiliation and Political Attitudes Approximately 30 percent (30.9 percent) of the sample had a household military affiliation – active duty military of veteran. Attitudes between Virginia military affiliated and non-military affiliated respondents vary on a range of issues.

Military Affiliation is Associated with Support for Mitt Romney

Household Total

Military

Affiliation

(Active Duty or

Veteran)

No Military

Affiliation

If the 2012 Presidential



Barack Obama 38.2% 56.8% 51.0%

Mitt Romney 55.8% 38.3% 43.7%

Virgil Goode 0.7% 0.8% 0.8%

Gary Johnson 0.7% 1.1% 1.0%

Jill Stein 0.7% 0.5% 0.5%

Undecided 3.9% 2.6% 3.0%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Military affiliated household members were much more likely to support Romney relative to other voters. Romney won the support of 55.8 percent of such respondents in the overall sample.

Military Affiliation is Associated with Support for George Allen

Activy Duty or Veteran Total

Military

Affiliation

(Activy Duty or

Veteran)

No Military

Affiliation

If the 2012 Virginia Senate



George Allen 55.3% 38.7% 43.9%

Tim Kaine 40.1% 56.7% 51.5%

Undecided 4.6% 4.7% 4.6%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

An almost identical pattern emerges in the Senate race.

Defense Sequester Attitude (by military affiliation)

Active Duty or Veteran Total

Active Duty Veteran No military

affiliation

Do you think that the

Defense spending sequester

should go into effect?

Yes 9.5% 27.8% 27.6% 27.0%

No 90.5% 67.2% 63.4% 65.5%

Don't know 3.9% 8.5% 6.8%

Refused 1.1% 0.5% 0.7%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

On most issues active duty and veteran households gave similar responses. A sharp exception was attitude toward the Defense spending sequester. Active duty almost universally expressed the view that it should not go into effect, while veterans were only slightly more likely to oppose the sequester than the rest of the Virginia population.

Documents

Old Dominion Poll Frequencies - ODUexit poll. 2. 2004 turnout model – poll respondents were weighted by age, race, gender, and income to resemble the 2004 presidential election electorate