Olympic Transportation Planning For London 2012

A Peak Flow And Modal Share Analysis For Rail Usage At The

Stratford Regional Station

What Is The Problem?

• The Olympics presents the logistical challenge of hosting 26 World Championships at the same time

• The problem is understanding the travel tendencies of the spectators and ensuring that the infrastructure in place will be able to handle their travel demands

Why Does It Matter?

• The congestion occurs at concentrated periods

• The funds to upgrade infrastructure are limited– This means that infrastructure to serve the

games must be in line with the Host City’s own transportation plan

• The Olympics must do its best not to drastically impede the daily movements of the Host City’s citizens

• The Olympics gives the transportation department an opportunity to reshape the travel behavior of its citizens

Research And Data

• Past Olympics– Static v. Dynamic Analysis

• The Olympic Delivery Authority’s Transportation Plan– Peak Flow Analysis

• Transport for London – Travel Demand Survey

• Department for Transport – Statistics

• Office of Rail Regulation– Rail usage statistics

• Mayor of London- London’s Transportation Strategy

Analysis

• Data was analyzed in two ways– Projected modal share of passengers– Peak flow of rail passengers

• Projected rail, bus, car, walking, and cycling numbers into 2012. – Linear Regression– High R2 terms ( >.89)

• Next, Data is taken from the Olympic Delivery Authority– Modal split for spectators arriving at

Olympic Park– Peak period of passenger arrival (100,000)

from 8:00 to 9:00 am

• Then the yearly projections earlier are reduced to the peak hourly data– Assume consistent passenger usage– Assume peak hourly usage at Stratford is

consistent with the rest of Greater London

• The modal split data is analyzed geographically in 2 ways– The Olympic Delivery Authority has

projected geographic distribution of spectators

– Calculate traffic modal splits for trips involving East London

Results and Conclusions

• 1st - Rails usage projections at Olympic Park are plausible– Private transport -> rail– Nearly all spectators outside of London -> rail

• 2nd- Bus usage numbers seem very low– Current ODA projection: 3%– Projected 2012 bus usage in East London:

14.47%

Future Research

• Olympic Route Network analysis– VISSIM, SATURN, TRANSYT

• Designing a simulation tool to allow for flexible scenario analysis