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On Swiss multi-party political system andpolarization in Politnetz
Adiya Abisheva
with F. Schweitzer and U. Serdult and David GarciaChair of Systems designwww.sg.ethz.ch
Outline
1 The Politnetz Community
2 Network Polarization in Politnetz
3 Social Networks of Parties
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshopwww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 2 / 17
Chair of Systems Design at ETH ZurichMain Research Areas
Economic Networks & Social Organizationse.g. ownership networks, R&D networks, financial networks, ...e.g. online communities, OSS projects, animal societies, ...
Denmark
Portugal
United Kingdom
Belgium
Netherlands
France
Spain
Ireland
Finland
Greece
Sweden Germany
Methodological Approach: Data Driven Modelingeconomic databases: Bloomberg, patent and ownership databasesdigital traces: user interaction, OSN, activity volumes
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshopwww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 3 / 17
The Politnetz community
Online politics participatory communityRepresentation of the parliament, with users asaudienceOpen discussions between politicians and usersNetwork of support and party affiliation
Dataset
Jan 2011-Jan 2014More than 3200 politicians, 12000 usersFocus on politician network:
15000 support links, 11000 likes, 38000 commentsMultiplex network with three layers
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop The Politnetz Communitywww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 4 / 17
Social interaction links in Politnetz
Support links: directedunweighted network
Likes and Comments: directedweighted networks
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop The Politnetz Communitywww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 5 / 17
Polarization: definition
Esteban & Ray (1994)
Suppose that the population is grouped into significantly-sized“clusters”, such that each cluster is very “similar” in terms of theattributes of its members, but different clusters have memberswith very “dissimilar” attributes. In that case, society is“polarized”.
Flache & Macy (2011)
Polarization of opinions is characterized by a division of thepopulation into a smaller number of fractions with high internalconsensus and sharp disagreement between them.
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop Network Polarization in Politnetzwww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 6 / 17
Network polarization: modularity
Q-Modularity
Probability that an edgeconnects two nodes in thesame community c, comparedto random graph
Q =1
2m
∑i,j
[Ai,j −
ki · kj
2m
]·δ(ci , cj)
Two separations:1 ci = party affiliation of politician i : Modularity of parties Qp
2 Communities found with algorithms: Maximal modularity Qmax
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop Network Polarization in Politnetzwww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 7 / 17
Network polarization in Politnetz
SupportsQp = 0.677 (10)Qmax = 0.742 (12)
LikesQp = 0.299 (10)Qmax = 0.448 (14)
CommentsQp = −0.07 (10)Qmax = 0.354 (15)
Qp - modularity score of networks with party labels,Qmax - maximum modularity score without party tagsColor corresponds to politicians’ party
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop Network Polarization in Politnetzwww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 8 / 17
Modularities of Politnetz: per-party aggregation
FDP Pirate
GLP
SP Christian
SVP/EDU
AL
Grune
BDP
highly modularnetworksupport link actsas a signal forparty membership
Grune
Christian
SVP/EDU
BDP
SP
Pirate
GLP
FDP
AL
likes links staymostly within partynumber ofcross-party linksare higher than insupport links
Pirate
Grune
GLP
Christian
BDP
AL
FDPSVP/EDU
SP
comments revealtwo attractors ofconversation –major parties inSwiss politics: SPand SVP
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop Network Polarization in Politnetzwww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 9 / 17
Modularity of likes peaks at elections
Date
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
Net
wor
kP
olar
izat
ion
Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013
Modularity of likes network over time windows of 2 monthsBefore elections, politicians avoid liking posts from other parties
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop Network Polarization in Politnetzwww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 10 / 17
Network polarization: users
Qp = −0.001 (9)Qmax = 0.519 (22)
Two clusters detected in the likesnetwork without party labelsLow modularity of party-labeledlikes network shows lack of politicalmobilization among users
Likes network of usersUsers are not aware of party labelsand like posts based on contentrather than party affiliation unlikeamong politicians
Qp - modularity score of networks with party labels,Qmax - maximum modularity score without party tags
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop Network Polarization in Politnetzwww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 11 / 17
Left vs. right party communities structure
Hypothesis
Compared to left-aligned communities, right-aligned communitiesare less influenced by content created by political campaigns, buthave stronger social interaction regarding political topics.
Conover & Menczer (2011)
In the US, online social networks of right politicians are moredense and clustered than the networks of left politicians
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop Social Networks of Partieswww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 12 / 17
Most frequent YouTube content shared bypolitical user groups in Twitter
RANK LEFT RIGHT APOLITICAL1 Minecraft Barack Obama Minecraft2 Call of Duty II Alex Jones Call of Duty II
. . . . . . . . . . . .6 Film Ron Paul Hip hop music
. . . . . . . . . . . .13 Album Police Call of Duty14 Call Mitt Romney Video blog15 Song Russia Today Episode. . . . . . . . . . . .25 Heavy metal Boston NBA. . . . . . . . . . . .27 Episode US NSA Super Junior. . . . . . . . . . . .29 Justin Bieber Bomb Pokemon30 Barack Obama Train Music
Right-aligned users share more politically charged content.Left-leaning users are similar to apolitical.
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop Social Networks of Partieswww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 13 / 17
Social networks of parties
Conover & Menczer (2011)
In the US, online social networks of right politicians are moredense and clustered than the networks of left politicians
We measured three aspects of the social network of a party1 In-degree centralization: tendency towards a star-like structure,
inequality of individual support in the party2 Average path length: information efficiency, closeness of the
community3 Maximum k-core: presence of a rich-club, resilient core of
leaders
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop Social Networks of Partieswww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 14 / 17
Party political position and social structure
averagepath
lengthmaxim
umk-core
in-degreecentralization
2.8
3.2
3.6
44.4
611
1621
2631
00.1
0.2
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
Left/Right position
SP
SP
SP
GLP
GLP
GLP
SVP
SVP
SVP
FDP
FDP
FDP
Christian
Christian
Christian
Grune
Grune
Grune
We focus on the support network of parties withmore than 150 politicians in PolitnetzParty position coded in surveysLeft parties have higher maximum k-core valuesRight parties have longer path lengthsGreen parties have higher centralization
Opposite of Conover & Menczer in Twitter USRight parties are not more closely connectedEffect of status quo rather than political alignment
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop Social Networks of Partieswww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 15 / 17
Summary
We analyzed network polarization (modularity) in PolitnetzSupport network stable and very polarizedPolarization in likes network increases when elections are close
Parties show different network structures
Scientific importance and impact of research1 Contribution towards local research communities of direct democracy
and e-voting,2 General approach can be applied towards international case studies,3 Assessment of impact of political campaigns, effectivity of mobilization,
and the impact of decision policy making.
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop Summarywww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 16 / 17
Future research questions
Detecting alignment on non-aligned political partiesBipolarization of the networkMatching answers of politicians to smart-vote dataPredict configuration of Swiss government and party coalitionPopularity of politicians/career path of politiciansAnalyze users opinions and political activity from onlinenewspapers (20min.ch)
Chair of Systems design SKIN3 workshop Summarywww.sg.ethz.ch Adiya Abisheva SKIN3 workshop Budapest, Hungary 22 May, 2014 17 / 17