Upload
others
View
6
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
On the development of the new Energy
Strategy of Russia
(ESR-2035)
Prof. Alexey M. Mastepanov
Deputy Director OIL and GAS RESEARCH INSTITUTE of RAS
Member of the Board of Directors of Institute of Energy Strategy
Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
October 30, 2014, Niigata, Japan
Tools and mechanisms for implementation: State the impact on the energy market
Pricing policy
Tax and customs policy
Improvement of legislation and regulatory framework
Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030
(approved by the Government of the Russian Federation in November 2009)
Russia's energy strategy is the main document containing the system of science-
based claims about the priorities of long-term energy policy and the mechanisms for its implementation
The energy strategy of Russia
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 2
2000
Main provisions of the Energy Strategy of Russia
for the period till 2020
2003
Energy Strategy of Russia for the period till 2020
Main directions of the Energy Policy
of the Russian Federation for the period till 2010
Energy Strategy of Russia
(Main provisions)
1992
The concept of the energy policy of Russia under new economic conditions
1995
Stages of implementation of the State Energy Policy of Russia
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 3
The correction of the Energy Strategy of Russia
The Energy Strategy should be updated at least once in five years.
In this regard, the government of the Russian Federation made a decision on the
correction of the Energy strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030, with its
prolongation until 2035.
Additional reasons for the need to adjust your Strategy:
the prolonged stagnation of the world economy;
the minimum increase of the energy demand both in Russia and in the world
markets;
numerous geopolitical, social, and natural disasters - 2010s;
The optimistic scenario of ESR-2030 turned out to be unrealistic.
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 4
5 5
Key challenges
Internal
Slow post-crisis development of the economy and the increasing dependency of
the budget on fuel and energy complex;
The increase of energy prices for end consumers;
The need for rapid technological modernization for improvement of the
energy sector efficiency.
External
The stagnation or low growth of demand for Russian energy resources;
The transition from resource globalization to regional energy self-
sufficiency;
Increased competition, including through the use of alternative and
unconventional energy resources;
External economic and technological sanctions.
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 5
6
Basic (coordinated within the Ministry of
energy) project ESR-2035 January 2014
January-July 2014 Extensive public comment and
interagency coordination
August-October 2014
Completion of the project on the basis
of the comments received. Training
scenarios for sectoral master plans
October 2014
The submission to the Government
of the Russian Federation
The approval by the Government of the
Russian Federation of the outcome
document (November/December 2014)
The roadmap project of ESR-2035
The draft revised Energy Strategy was developed by the Institute of Energy Strategy, together with
the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Analytical Center under the Government of
the Russian Federation and submitted to the Ministry of Energy of Russia.
Currently the project reconciliation procedure is in the process with ministries, agencies and state-owned energy companies
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 6
Draft of Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2035
The Central idea of ESR-2035 is the transition from resource to
resource-innovative development of fuel and energy complex
based on full use of domestic resources and innovative
capabilities through the formation of long-term technological
chains with their saturation innovative technologies.
The aim of the ESR-2035 is the creation of innovative and
efficient energy sector for sustainable economic growth,
improving the quality of life and promotion of its external
economic positions.
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 7
8
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Average annual GDP growth
rate
The production of fuel and energy
(total)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
In ESR-2030 - 4.7%;
In ESR-2035 – 3.8% (target scenario);
- 2.8% (risk analysis scenario).
Changing macroeconomic conditions
Target scenario of ESR-2035
Risk analysis scenario of ESR-2035
ESR-2030 (minimum)
ESR-2030 (maximum)
million tons of coal equivalent
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 8
Source: Vitaliy V. Bushuev, Institute of Energy Strategy
9
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2012 2020 2025 2035
%
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
2012 2020 2025 2035
Domestic demand External demand
Prospects of demand for energy resources of Russia
MTCE/year TCE per person/year
domestic consumption of primary energy, MTCE
per capita consumption of primary energy, TCE
the growth of energy exports in real terms (2010 = 100%)
the ratio of exports to domestic consumption
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 9
Source: Vitaliy V. Bushuev, Institute of Energy Strategy
10
The formation of oil and gas complexes with the development of production, transport and social infrastructure in Eastern Siberia and the Far East
The development of the hydrocarbon potential of the continental shelf of the Arctic seas and the North of Russia
The development of energy efficient technologies
The development of the domestic energy infrastructure
Strategic initiatives of energy sector development
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 10
Source: Ministry of energy of the Russian Federation
• Stabilization of oil production
• Creation in the East of the country of the infrastructure for 20 - 25 % of total production and 40 % of exports of oil and oil products
• The increase of oil recovery factor up to 40 - 45 %
• Preparation of explored reserves, infrastructure and technologies for development of the Arctic shelf
Strategic initiatives in the oil industry
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 12
12
Коэффициент извлечения нефти*
ESR-2035: the production and export of oil
Oil production Oil export
Risk analysis scenario Target scenario
Million tons /year Million tons /year
Target scenario
Risk analysis scenario
Structure of export of oil (target scenario)
Mill
ion
to
ns
/yea
r
CIS Europe APR
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 12
Source: Ministry of energy of the Russian Federation
• The increase of gas production of 35-45 %
• Creation in the East of the country of the infrastructure for 15-20 % of total gas production and 35-40 % of exports of gas
• Deep processing of up to 25-30 % of produced gas
• Liquefaction (LNG) up to 8-11 % of produced gas
• Extension of the Unified gas supplying systems to Eastern Siberia and the Far East
Strategic initiatives in the gas industry
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 13
14
ESR-2035: gas industry
Gas export Gas production Domestic demand
Целевой сценарий Target scenario
Целевой сценарий Target scenario
Целевой сценарий Target scenario
Сценарий риск-анализа Risk analysis scenario
Сценарий риск-анализа
Risk analysis scenario Сценарий риск-анализа
Risk analysis scenario
Structure of export of gas (target scenario)
Eastward. LNG
Eastward. Pipeline
Western direction. LNG
Western direction. Pipeline
CIS
BCM/year
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 14
Source: Ministry of energy of the Russian Federation
The implementation of already planned projects: "South stream", "Power of Siberia", the creation of LNG plants
The key task of ESR-2035 is the development of new energy corridor (the Northern sea route)
The development of export infrastructure
New LNG plants LNG plant
Pechora LNG Yamal LNG
Vladivostok-LNG
Sakhalin II
Far East LNG of Rosneft
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 15
Source: Vitaliy V. Bushuev, Institute of Energy Strategy
Yakutsk gas
production center
Irkutsk gas
production center
Sakhalin gas
production center
The development of oil and gas infrastructure in the Far East
The development of oil and gas fields of Sakhalin oblast (on the continental shelf of the Okhotsk sea) and
oil deposits on the territory of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (Talakan and adjacent fields) ;
Continued implementation of the projects "Sakhalin-1” and “Sakhalin-2";
The construction of the refinery in Primorsk region;
Modernization of oil terminals Nakhodka and De-Kastri
Oil complex
The construction of new LNG plants in Vladivostok and
Sakhalin
Completion of construction of the gas pipeline "Power of
Siberia";
The gasification of the southern Federal district
The formation of the Yakut gas Centre (on
the basis of the Chayanda field, with the
prospect of development of adjacent fields –
Srednebotuobinskoe, Taas-Urjahskoe,
Verhnevilyuchanskoe and others);
Gas complex
The formation of oil, gas and petrochemical
clusters, large gas processing facilities and
chemical plants
Oil and Gas chemistry
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 16
Gas transmission system “Power of Siberia “
The total length of the GTS is about 4000 km, the design capacity of 38 billion
cubic meters of gas per year.
Implementation of projects in the East of Russia and of Energy Strategy as a whole opens
additional possibilities for further development of mutually beneficial Russian-Japanese
energy cooperation.
Chayandinskoye field
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 17
Source: JSC “GAZPROM”
18
Thank you & good luck !
On the development of the new
Energy Strategy of Russia
(ESR-2035)
Alexey M. Mastepanov . ESR-2035. October 30, 2014, Niigata 18