One billion

Opportunities

for Africa Building Human Capital for

Inclusive Growth

Africa‘s metamorphosis…

Demographic explosion

Rapid economic growth

Technological revolution

Political transformation

Environmental challenges

Aid landscape

2

Demographic explosion..

3

A strikingly large youth bulge in Africa

Source: CIA World Fact-book 2009 http://www.prb.org/pdf11/2011population-data-sheet_eng.pdf

4

Youth bulge.. the continent‘s greatest asset, or

potential risk ?

1 billion people today,

2.3 billion by 2050

Africa is the..

Most populous

continent after Asia

Youngest region

in the world

..And will have the

largest workforce

by 2040 surpassing

China and India

Source : UNSTAT. World Population Prospects 2010.

-

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

195

0

195

5

196

0

196

5

197

0

197

5

19

80

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

201

5

202

0

202

5

203

0

203

5

204

0

20

45

205

0

Millio

n in

ha

bita

nts

Working age population (15-64) in the world

Africa

SE Asia

Europe

LAC

South America

North America

China

India

5

Rapid but non-inclusive growth

6 out of 10

fastest-growing

economies are

in SSA (Angola,

Nigeria, Ethiopia, Chad,

Mozambique, Rwanda)

6 out of 10 most

unequal

countries are in

SSA (SA, CAR)

6

60% youth unemployment in Africa and many underemployed,

especially the most educated…

24 25

34

2

22

3

20

48

31

25

11

21

27

3

10

2

6

24

14

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Unemployment Rate %, total and youth

Unemployment, youth

total (% of total labor

force ages 15-24)

Unemployment, total (%

of total labor force)

Double Trouble

7

Technology wave

The total African mobile

subscriber base is roughly 281 million and expected to reach

561 million in 2012

Yet Africa lags behind in

connectivity and internet access …only 3 out of 1000 are internet

users in Sierra Leone …1 out of 1000

has a computer in Niger

8

Africa lagging behind in the broadband race

9

Political shifts…less conflict.. more demand for voice and accountability

10

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

Voice and

Accountability

Political Stability

Government

Effectiveness

Regulatory Quality

Rule of Law

Control of

Corruption

Governance Indicators (World Bank, 2010)

SSA

MENA

Tunis

11

Environmental changes..

Impact of drought, food shortages on

nutrition, particularly in the Horn of Africa

12

Changing aid landscape

Economic and financial crisis

Global fund, decrease in HIV/AIDS funding

New donors e.g., China investing in infrastructure

Higher levels of remittances

13

Why the Bank should invest in human

capital

Core mandate: Inclusive growth and

poverty reduction

Infrastructure – labor intensive, requiring

specialized skills

Governance – 40-60% domestic spending

goes to social sectors

Private sector – mismatch between skills

produced and quality of education and

labor market needs

HEST – too few students in science

14

Why a human capital development

strategy?

Rising youth population is Africa‘s greatest

asset…

…capturing the demographic dividend…

………promoting inclusive growth……

15

Africa on the demographic upswing

Source: D Bloom and D Canning, “Demographics and Development Policy”, Development Outreach, April 2011

16

A one time opportunity ...

Source : ILO, KILM 7.

Capturing the demographic dividend similar to East

Asian miracle and unlike Latin America

17

Capturing the demographic dividend

Skills for competitiveness and jobs …

Using new technologies to build a knowledge economy

Only an educated and healthy workforce can

be productive

Value for money, accountability and voice in

service delivery

Integrate private spending in policymaking

Addressing governance, voice and accountability issues

Social inclusion and cohesion

18

Skills for competitiveness

and jobs

What will the Bank support ?

Skills development to support job creation and

private and public sector investments in

Infrastructure and other economic sectors.

Investments in Education will focus on better

matching the supply and demand for skilled

workers to address youth unemployment in Africa.

(NEMA)

Strengthening Science and Technology including

research and innovation as part of PPP

Regional Integration through regional centers of

excellence and regional networks of knowledge

20

Moving Africa from Knowledge

consumers to Knowledge Producers…

• Large numbers of

youth are being

pushed through the

education system,

but quality of

education remains

low—especially in

math and science

• Number of students

in higher education

in Africa has tripled in

the last 10 years

• ....yet the best

university in Africa

ranks 324th globally

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

Zimbabwe

CAR

Algeria

Cap Verde

Mali

Burkina Faso

Namibia

Niger

Ghana

Eritrea

Madagascar

Congo

Cote d'Ivoire

Ethiopia

Guinea

Burundi

Cameroon

Djibouti

Marocco

Too Few Students in Science: fields of Study for students

enrolled in Tertiary Education

Science Engineering Education Social science, business & law other

21

Quality issue?

Or Mismatch between

demand and

supply?

Education level 200

0

2009 or

LYA

%

change

Preschool Gross Enrolment rate (GER, %) 17.5 27.2 +55%

Primary Completion rate (%) 54.3 70.2 +29%

Lower secondary (GER, %) 42.3 56.4 +33%

Upper secondary (GER, %) 20.1 28.0 +40%

Technical and Vocational Education

N.b. of Students per 100,000

inhabitants

406.

8 450.0 +11%

Parity Index (general secondary = 100) 10.8 8.8 -18%

Higher education

N.b. of Students per 100,000

inhabitants

509.

2 793.3 +56%

The parity index (in %) represents the number of enrolled students in TVET per 100 students in general secondary education. Source AfDB data 2011

Access to Education improving...

but skills do not match labor market needs

22

The most educated are more likely to be

unemployed or underemployed

Between 1999 and 2009, the number of university graduates in Sub-

Saharan Africa more than tripled, rising from 1.6 mio. to 4.9 mio.

Source: Mingat (2006) African Development Bank, 2011

Unemployment rate among individuals aged 25-34

23

Education not relevant to the needs of

the job market…

In Tunisia, almost 30% of higher education graduates in 2004 were

still unemployed 3 years after graduation(twice the national

average);

Although increasing, the employment rate of vocational training

schools leavers was only 61% in Morocco in 2008, nine months after

graduation;

In Gabon in 2010, almost 90% of unemployed youths (16-24 years

old) would have preferred to obtain a job in the modern sector; less

than 2% were ready to engage in self-employment;

In Tanzania, Vocational Education capacity is far from meeting

current needs. The current annual flow of students into vocational

education is less than five percent of the potential demand for VET

skills.

24

New Model for Higher Education in Africa

(NEMA)

• ICT-based

• Linkages with the labor market

• PPPs

• Develop critical thinking

• Participatory

• Evidence-based

• The African Virtual University has established

the largest network of

Open Distance and

eLearning institutions in

over 30 Sub Saharan

African countries and won

the 2011 ‗Education-

Portal.com‘ prize.

• The regional center of

excellence Carnegie

Mellon in Rwanda will be

the first highly ranked

American university to

operate a fully-fledged

campus in Africa

25

Value for money,

accountability and voice

in service delivery

What will the Bank support ?

Better governance for results and

improved value for money

Voice and Accountability with focus on

ICT investments

Private sector engagement in service

delivery

27

Building accountability towards citizens

Voice Compact

Client‘s Power

28

Fast track bank task force for private sector

engagement in HD

Address shortage teachers and health

workers…invest in Higher education to improve

both supply and quality

Governance …On average 40-60% of government expenditure in Africa allocated to social spending

Absenteeism, shortages of books, drugs

Silent corruption

Improve national procurement systems

Transparent financial management

Results based financing

Voice in service delivery

Value for money, accountability and

voice in service delivery

29

Value for Money, Accountability and Voice in

service Delivery

30

Creating participatory, accountable, responsive and

inclusive governance systems in social service sectors in

Africa

Increased awareness of accountability in

the conduct of public affairs

Increase decentralization and

participatory approach to the planning

and budgetary process

Increased citizens participation in

measuring results and effectiveness of

service delivery

31

Social Inclusion and

Cohesion

Safety nets

Conditional Cash Transfers

Health insurance

Productive Safety nets

Microfinance

Social Businesses

Nutrition: food security, climate change

and livelihoods particularly in the Horn of

Africa

What will the Bank support ?

33

Implementation

Instruments

PBOs to support systemic policy reforms for inclusive growth

Specific investments operations for institutional strengthening and innovations

Partnerships

ESWs

Impact Evaluation

35

Institutional Reform

Skills mix towards realization of pillars

Cross-departmental ESWs and operations

Country policy dialogue as part of

decentralization rather than project focus

HCD assessment as part of CSPs

36

Implementation example 1:

infrastructure

Operationalizing HCD in Infrastructure

All projects / programs in Infrastructure to

have a broader, deeper Capacity Building

components for Human Capital

development.

Increased collaboration between

Infrastructure and HS Department in the

conception, design and implementation of

projects

Training of Task Managers in mainstreaming

HCD in projects or as stand alone capacity.

38

Implementing HCD in Water and

Sanitation

OWAS & AWF projects designs use labour

intensive and simple technologies, where

possible, to create jobs for locals.

OWAS operations has a special focus on

sanitation to address health and nutrition

challenges.

OWAS & AWF operations are now taking an

integrated approach to respond to social,

economic & environmental needs.

39

Implementation example

2: skills for job creation

Background paper for the African Economic

Outlook ―Promoting Youth Employment‖

OSHD and EDRE jointly prepared a background

paper for the AEO

Purpose: to improve our understanding of youth

unemployment in Africa

Original contribution: analysis of 16 African

household and labour force surveys

Team led by 1 consultant and 5 research assistants

Also resulted in paper submitted to the C10

Ministerial Meeting 41

Implementation example 3:

Impact evaluation program

Impact Evaluation Initiative

Each new OSHD project to include an impact evaluation component

Purpose: to help RMCs generate evidence on the

impact of policies they implement and learn from other countries‘ experience to ensure evidence-

based policies

Close collaboration between OSHD and EDRE, with the latter providing technical support and

advice

So far: projects in Ghana, Kenya, Malawi and

Kenya 43

Conclusion

• A strategy to help Africa leapfrog its economic

and socio-economic development

• High return if timely investments is made on

• Using new technologies to build a knowledge

economy

• Mechanisms for value for money and accountability

• Inclusion

• Need to integrate private spending in

policymaking

• Importance for external aid to be catalytic: need to focus on results and efficiency gains

Consultations

o E-consultations

o Face to face multi stakeholder

consultations with RMCs, donors, private

sector, academia planned (March-May)

o June – Revised strategy submitted to

Board

“globalization and the information technology

revolution are creating a hyper connected

world. A world in which education, innovation

and talent will be rewarded more than ever.

A world in which there will be no more

"developed" and "developing countries," but

only HIEs (high-imagination-enabling countries)

and LIEs (low-imagination-enabling countries)”

Thomas Friedman

A changing Africa in a

changing world…