CORDEX overview

CORDEX Central America and South America Training

Workshop on Downscaling Techniques

La Paz, Bolivia, June 25-27 2018

INFORMATION

Please find below relevant information for the poster session and for the training activities.

1. Poster guidelines

Ø Poster display: Posters should be on display from Tuesday 26th 8:30 am until Wednesday

27th 3:00 pm. Participants are encouraged to put up the posters on the poster-display area on Tuesday 26th before the beginning of Session 3 (8:30 AM to 9:00 AM). Posters should be taken off on Wednesday 27th before Session 8 (3:00pm to 3:15 pm). The posters that will be not removed during the appropriate time will be recycled.

Ø Poster format: Maximum poster dimensions are 120 cm (height) x 90 cm (width) = A0 in

PORTRAIT. Poster areas will be equipped with poster boards and material to hang your poster.

Ø TIPS for your poster: Posters should be readable by viewers two meters away. The message should be clear and understandable even without oral explanation. The following guidelines have been prepared to help improve the effectiveness of poster communication. • The abstract: The presentation must cover the material as cited in the corresponding submitted abstract and use the official abstract title as submitted and make it easy to read.

Silvina SolmanCORDEX Science Advisory Team

CIMA (CONICET-UBA) – DCAO (FCEyN-UBA)

Buenos Aires - Argentina

CORDEX Central America and South America Training

Workshop on Downscaling Techniques

La Paz, Bolivia, June 25-27 2018

INFORMATION

Please find below relevant information for the poster session and for the training activities.

1. Poster guidelines

Ø Poster display: Posters should be on display from Tuesday 26th 8:30 am until Wednesday

27th 3:00 pm. Participants are encouraged to put up the posters on the poster-display area on Tuesday 26th before the beginning of Session 3 (8:30 AM to 9:00 AM). Posters should be taken off on Wednesday 27th before Session 8 (3:00pm to 3:15 pm). The posters that will be not removed during the appropriate time will be recycled.

Ø Poster format: Maximum poster dimensions are 120 cm (height) x 90 cm (width) = A0 in

PORTRAIT. Poster areas will be equipped with poster boards and material to hang your poster.

Ø TIPS for your poster: Posters should be readable by viewers two meters away. The message should be clear and understandable even without oral explanation. The following guidelines have been prepared to help improve the effectiveness of poster communication. • The abstract: The presentation must cover the material as cited in the corresponding submitted abstract and use the official abstract title as submitted and make it easy to read.

CORDEX Central America and South America Training

Workshop on Downscaling Techniques

La Paz, Bolivia, June 25-27 2018

INFORMATION

Please find below relevant information for the poster session and for the training activities.

1. Poster guidelines

Ø Poster display: Posters should be on display from Tuesday 26th 8:30 am until Wednesday

27th 3:00 pm. Participants are encouraged to put up the posters on the poster-display area on Tuesday 26th before the beginning of Session 3 (8:30 AM to 9:00 AM). Posters should be taken off on Wednesday 27th before Session 8 (3:00pm to 3:15 pm). The posters that will be not removed during the appropriate time will be recycled.

Ø Poster format: Maximum poster dimensions are 120 cm (height) x 90 cm (width) = A0 in

PORTRAIT. Poster areas will be equipped with poster boards and material to hang your poster.

Ø TIPS for your poster: Posters should be readable by viewers two meters away. The message should be clear and understandable even without oral explanation. The following guidelines have been prepared to help improve the effectiveness of poster communication. • The abstract: The presentation must cover the material as cited in the corresponding submitted abstract and use the official abstract title as submitted and make it easy to read.

Second Workshop on Regional Climate Modelling and Extreme

Events over South America

November 5-9, 2018, Saõ Paulo, Brazil

Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment

(CORDEX)

Background and history

Vision and goals

CORDEX data

Future directions

CORDEX – Brief History❖ Call by WCRP for greater coordination across downscaling activities

(WCRP JSC-28, 2009)

❖ WCRP Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling (2010) - F. Giorgi and C. Jones,

Co-chairs

➢ 1st Pan-CORDEX Conference (ICTP, Trieste, 2011) – 180 participants

❖ Formal WCRP program, with Science Advisory Team (2012)

➢ 2nd Pan-CORDEX Conference (Brussels, 2013) – 400 participants

❖ International Project Office for CORDEX (IPOC) established (SMHI, 2015)

➢ 3rd Pan-CORDEX Conference (Stockholm, 2016) – 500 participants

CORDEX Background

CORDEX aims:❖ Link regional expertise

❖ Build on prior experiences with

regional simulations and

processes

❖ Engage all forms of downscaling

(RCM, ESD, variable res GCM)

❖ Cover all major land masses

+ Arctic

❖ 14 CORDEX Domains

CORDEX Scientific Vision

To advance and coordinate the science and application of

regional climate downscaling through global partnerships

Goals:

➢To better understand relevant regional/local climate phenomena,

their variability and changes, through downscaling.

➢To evaluate and improve regional climate downscaling models and

techniques

➢To produce coordinated sets of regional downscaled projections

worldwide

➢To foster communication and knowledge exchange with users of

regional climate information

CORDEX Scientific Challenges

Small Islands (island-generated climatology, storm surge)

Organized convective systems (coastal storm systems, tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems)

Cities (effects of climate change, heat islands, LULC, bridging with urban parameterization community)

Wind energy (wind-farm feedbacks, sfc winds, PBL)

Inland waters (large lakes) and regional seas

High mountain environments (glaciers, snow…)

Ad

ded

Valu

e(variab

ility/ as a fu

nctio

no

f scales, b

iases/u

ncertain

ties, ESD, u

serm

etrics)

Hu

man

factor / V

IA issu

es

Co

nvectio

n-p

erm

itting M

od

elling

Co

up

ledM

od

els(o

cean-

ice-atm

, lakes, carbo

ncycle, aero

sols…

)

Cap

acityb

uild

ing

• Six key challenges to help drive CORDEX forward. • Five cross cutting themes to focus activities across the CORDEX domains,

promote cross domain interaction, and allow for close interaction withthe VIA and climate service community.

ERA-Interim LBC

1976-2005

Phase I CORDEX experimental design

Model Evaluation

Framework

Climate Projection

Framework

Multiple AOGCMs-ESMs

RCP4.5, RCP8.5

1951-2100

Multiple regions

0.44, 0 .22°; 0.11º grid spacing

Regional Analysis

Regional Databanks ESGF

CORDEX future plans – Phase II

Integrating RCM and ESD outputs

Time

scaleCORDEX - I

CORDEX-ESD proposed framework

(under development):

• Set of experimental guidance

• Experiment 1: CLARIS network

• Experiment 2: gridded outputs

ESD experiments:

• Ad-hoc projects

• Local level

• User need driven

CORDEX - II

Tools

RCM

ESD

RCM ensemble simulations

(work completed):

• CORDEX selected domains

• ~ 50km resolution

• CMIP5 driven

• Outputs data set format

• Publicly available dataset

RCM ensemble simulations

• CORDEX CORE

• CORDEX sub-domains

~ 5-10km resolution

• CMIP6 driven

• Scientific question targeted: FPS

Joint RCM-ESD data provision

(long-term vision):

• CORDEX sub-domains

• Common 5-10 km grid

• Gridded outputs

• Same GCM forcings

• Publicly available dataset

• Scientific question targeted

• User needs met

Flagship Pilot Studies (FPS)

• Coordinate developments in convective-permitting climate

simulations

• Should have strong basis in

◆ Fine-scale processes important to region’s climate (physical basis)

◆ Observational basis for verification (analysis basis)

◆ User applications (VIA basis)

• Potential connection with other WCRP programs, e.g., GEWEX

• Cumulatively - 7 proposals endorsed from 6 CORDEX regions

• One call a year - in February

• Details: www.cordex.org

Flagship Pilot Studies (FPS)

Seven FPS now established:

✓ EUR+MED: Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean

✓ EUR: Impact of land use changes on climate in Europe across spatial and temporal scales

✓ S. AM: Extreme precipitation events in Southeastern South America: a proposal for a

better understanding and modeling

✓ Africa: Coupled regional modelling of land-atmosphere-ocean interactions over western-

southern Africa under climate change

✓ Africa: ELVIC - Climate Extremes in the Lake Victoria Basin

✓ MED: Role of the natural and anthropogenic aerosols in the Mediterranean region: past

climate variability and future climate sensitivity

✓ MED: Role of the air-sea coupling and small scale ocean processess on regional climate

CORDEX-FPS-SA: “Extreme precipitation events in Southeastern South America: a proposal for a better understanding and modeling” (2017-2019)(PI: Maria Laura Bettolli) Researchers from Argentina, Brazil, Italy,

Czech Republic, Spain, Uruguay

Objectives: 1) To investigate multi-scale aspects, processes and interactions that result in extreme precipitation events over Southeastern South America by using dynamical models (high resolution, convection permitting and coupled models) and statistical models. 2) to develop actionable climate information from multiple sources (statistical and dynamical downscaling products) based on co-production with the impact and user community.

First Workshop on CORDEX-FPS-SA – San José dos Campos, Brasil, March 2017

% precipitation associated with MCC

during summer

CORDEX CORE

CORDEX Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations

• Motivated and further promoted by

• IPCC Workshops on Regional Climate (Sept. 2015; May 2018)

• WCRP Scoping Workshop on a framework for reg. studies (Sept.

2016)

• Regional focus in AR6 WGI (3 chapters)

• Elements

◆ Succinct set of downscalings for each region

◆ Provide a core foundation for additional work by others

◆ Span plausible range of climate change: ≥ 3 distinct GCMs

◆ CMIP5 (CMIP6): Historical + RCP2.6 & RCP8.5 (to 2100)

◆ Downscaling: currently 5 RCMs + ESD methods

◆ Resolution: 12.5 – 25 km

On the web

• CORDEX web: http://www.cordex.org

• CORDEX status – simulations for each domain

• Web calendar; Coming plans, workshops,

meetings, conferences, presentations

• Annual reports from FPSs

CORDEX simulations can be accessed using:

1. ESGF

2. Regional Data Portals (Med-CORDEX, South and East Asia)

3. Impact portals (only ESGF segment)

4. Servers at Individual modelling groups

Latest update on RCM simulations (SAM)RCM GCM Matrix |SAM-CORDEX ht tp://xxxxx/rcm-gcm-matrix

Submitted by S Solman onSepember 29 2017

RCA4.V3 REgCM4 REMO2009 WRF3.4 PRECIS ETA HadRM3P.V1 RegCM4 XX XX

ERA40

ERA-Int 0.44º 0.44º 0.44º 0.44º 0.22º 0.44º 0.44º RCP ECS(°C)

ICHEC-EC-Earth 0.44º 0.44º 2.6/4.5/8.5

MPI-ESM-LR 0.44º 0.44º 0.44º 0.44º 2.6/4.5/8.5

HadGEM-ES 0.44º 0.44º 0.22º 20km 2.6/4.5/8.5

CanESM2 0.44º 0.44º 4.5*/8.5

GFDL-ESM2M 0.44º 0.44º 4.5/8.5

IPSL-CM5A-MR 0.44º 4.5/8.5

MIROC5 0.44º 2.6/4.5/8.5

CSIROMk36.0 0.44º 4.5/8.5

NorESM1-M 0.44º 2.6/4.5/8.5

Region SAM SAM SAM SAM SAM SAM SAM SAM

Period

Forevaluation

1979-2005

scenario:1850-

2100

Forevaluation

1979-2005

scenario:1850-

2100

Forevaluation

1979-2005

scenario:1850-

2100

For

evaluation

1979-2005

scenario:1850

For

evaluation

1979-2005

scenario:1850

Forevaluation

1979-2005

scenario:1850-

2100

Forevaluation

1979-2005

scenario:1850-

2100

Forevaluation

1979-2005

scenario:1850-

2100

Access ESGFnodes ESGFnodeshttp://meteo.

unican.es/woESGFnodes

Institution SMHI/SweedenICT-/USP/Italy-

Brazil

GERICS/Germa

ny

universidad

de

CR2/DGF

ChileCPTEC/Brazil

Hadley

Centre/UKCR2/DGFChile

Modeler(orcontact)

NameGrigoryNikulin MartaLlopart

Jesus

FernandezMaisaRojas SinChanChou DenizBozkurt

†performedbutnot

availableatESGFyet

†inprogress †planned

Dataaccessnotes:PoC=PointofContact(Modeler);ESGF=EarthSystemGridFederation;NN=NoNamewebsite…

Institutionnotes:

Contactinformation,timeperiods,andotherdetailsonthesimulationsareavailableviamodelinggrouppage.

Simulationsorganizedtohighlightpossibleintercomparisonsubexperiments

©WCRPCORDEX| TermsofUseforCORDEX| TermsofUseforindividualmodels

Period:Forevaluation1979-2005

Scenario:1850-2100

Access,institutionandmodeler/contact ForRegCM4simulationsInstitution:USP/ICTPContact:RosmeriPorfiriodaRocharosmerir@model.iag.usp.br

ForWRFsimulationsInstitution:UNICANContact:JesusFernandezjesus.fernandez@unican.es

ForPRECISsimulationsIntitution:UniversidaddeChileContact:MaisaRojasmaisa@dgf.uchile.cl

ForETAsimulationsInstitution:CPTECContact:SinChanChouchou@cptec.inpe.br

Regional Model (RCM)

For

cin

g (

Ob

s, G

CM

)

The global collaborative initia

t

iv e “Coordinated

Regional Climate Downscaling Experi-

ment” (CORDEX) aims to develop and provide

detailed, regional climate information necessary

for vulnerability, impact and adaptation studies

at local and regional levels.

CORDEX is working to meet the increasing need

for reliable regional climate information commu-

nicated in a manner enabling effective impact

and adaptation planning.

Some of the topics that will be highlighted at The International Conference on Regional Climate (ICRC)-

CORDEX 2019 are: benefits of downscaling, including biases and uncertainties; further development of earth

system models; the human factor and impacts and applications. The conference will also provide a platform

for scientis

t

s and users from all parts of the globe to meet and advance capacity development, training and

knowledge exchange as well as to build new and enhance existing co-operations.

The conference will be held in Beijing, China, 14-18 October 2019

Details will be announced soon on the CORDEX homepage; www.cordex.org

ICRC-CORDEX 2019 International Conference on Regional Climate

14th - 18th OCTOBER 2019 BEIJING, CHINA

http://icrc-cordex2019.cordex.org/

Thank You!