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September 8, 2012 Camp’s Bay, Cape Town, South Africa Dear friends, I want to tell you briefly about a great investment opportunity that I've come across here in South Africa. It's one of the more compelling investments I've seen in a while. I'm going to make a play for it, and I wanted to extend an invitation for you to join me. We'll need to move quickly. 1) Brief description (followed by more detail): I've managed to come across a very high quality, tier-‐1 property in Cape Town that is in significant distress. The property is in one of Cape Town's best neighborhoods with a fantastic location and pristine views. It's a 10-‐bedroom home with 1800 square meter (almost 20,000 square feet) of construction, currently operating as a boutique five star hotel. The owner is about to lose the property to the bank. The brokers have suggested that he'll let it go for under $3MM USD. This is a really great deal.
I believe there are at least three different ways of making money with this property. As a store of value and prospect for substantial capital appreciation, this asset is very, very compelling. My analysis leads me to believe we could make 2-‐3x our money in the coming years, and in the meantime, the property does have a reasonable cash flow (yield). 2) Investment thesis I like to lock in an almost guaranteed profit at the moment I buy something, so I'm always on the lookout for deeply undervalued, distressed assets. But that doesn't go far enough. There's no sense in buying distressed assets unless you're buying HIGH QUALITY distressed assets... assets that have the best income potential, the best capital appreciation potential, and are the first to bounce back from recession. Moreover, I also like to buy assets where there is plenty of room to add value. As an example, our farm in Chile is only 20% planted. We can easily double the production by investing in more cultivation.
Between the two of these principles, if I am buying a deeply undervalued asset that I can also add value to, I'm almost assured of making money.
In real estate, I typically have two benchmarks for 'undervalued'. The first is a fixed number: if the price is less than $1,000 per square meter of construction area (for 'normal property') or $1,500 for tier-‐1, upscale, luxury property, that's a screaming deal. The second is even more intuitive. If the property is selling for less than it's replacement cost, it's a screaming deal. If this deal is properly structured, this property hits both of those benchmarks.
3) Macro picture: South Africa I come to Southern Africa each year because this is, undoubtedly, where the future is. Look at where the real resource hotspots are in the world: Mozambique (oil), Tanzania (everything), Angola (oil), Namibia (uranium, nat gas, soon to be oil), etc. Southern Africa is a friendly environment because it's so Anglicized. Thank you, Britain. Everything in this part of the world functions much, much better than everywhere else in sub-‐Saharan Africa. The region is safer, more developed, wealthier, and much more stable. South Africa is the flagship of the region. It's the largest economy, by far, and the most civilized nation. No doubt, South Africa has its problems... but it's a bit like Brazil. It's so resource rich down here, the country keeps succeeding despite the best efforts of its politicians. South Africa definitely has problems. The politicians are corrupt (what? say it ain't so!!) They've got big problems with electrical infrastructure. Crime is a factor (though typically overstated in the media). Right now, the economy is lagging. The ebbs and flows of the global economy definitely impact South Africa, and the latest trouble in Europe (plus China's slowdown) has been taking a toll on both the economy and the property market.
Long-‐term, though, I'm very bullish on the country. I'm not alone... that's one of the reasons why the BRIC countries are now called the BRIICSA countries (to include both Indonesia and South Africa). My take on it is perhaps different than Goldman Sachs. I see huge long-‐term potential. With a population of roughly 45 million, it's a story not unlike India or Brazil. Millions of people are being lifted out of poverty and into the middle class. They're moving up from squalid tenements to blocks of apartments that actually have running water and electricity. They have some level of disposable income for the first time. It's exciting to see. Moreover, South Africa is, and always will be, the de facto capital of Southern Africa. Johannesburg is the commercial hub, no doubt, but Cape Town is the most civilized place on the continent. Driving around Cape Town, you would be forgiven if you thought you were in Malibu. It's also one of the most gorgeous cities in the world. Table Mountain is one of the most imposing sites in nature, and it cradles the entire city right up to the Atlantic seaboard. I'm down here right now and it's still technically winter. Yet each day has been sunny and warm. People are out my window right now sunning themselves at the beach. The food, wine, and lifestyle all rank among the finest in the world.
Within Cape Town, there are a few tier-‐1 neighborhoods-‐-‐ Clifton, Bantry Bay, and Camp's Bay among them. These are all right on the coast... and they're simply gorgeous. In Camp's Bay (where the property is located), 58 freehold properties were sold last year at an average of about $3,200 per square meter. This is considered expensive for South Africa. 4) Property details The property is located in a quiet residential neighborhood of Camp's Bay, nestled in the terraced hillside among other luxury homes. Adjacent to the property is only one neighbor; on the other side is a preserve which contains a small estuary for mountaintop runoff. It's greenfield and won't be built on. The property is elevated as such, and the slopes in front are steep enough, that the pristine views of both the Atlantic and Table Mountain are all but guaranteed. And the views are absolutely extraordinary: panoramic ocean and mountain views in a way that only Cape Town can deliver.
The property is 1,800 square meters (nearly 20,000 square feet). It's huge. It currently operates as a Five Star hotel (see #5 below). It could remain that way, or be converted back into a luxury home fairly easily. The interior is well appointed with high quality, luxurious finishings. You get this impression right as you walk in-‐-‐ the main door is a work of art made from polished railroad ties and handcrafted Malawian sculpture. Each of the ten bedrooms has an ensuite bathroom, and there are other common areas in the house including a small library, dining room, open kitchen, and bar area. It's all well furnished, and the furniture stays... right down to the knives and forks.
Exterior amenities include a small swimming pool, spa, extensive terrace, gorgeous landscaped gardens, exotic fish ponds, etc. It's a great atmosphere. All of it appears very well maintained, though clearly more due diligence needs to be performed (see #10 below).
5) The business As I mentioned, it operates as a 5-‐star boutique hotel. This is where things get a bit murky. The current owner is a relatively famous conductor from the UK. He hasn't exactly been keeping very good books... or any books at all. I don't doubt his honesty, but there is little up to this point to validate what he has told me, and I need to dive much further into this. The information I have is such:
-‐ 6 Full time employees (two butlers/chefs, two managers/receptionists, two housekeepers). They would all stay on. -‐ Operating expenses are about 120,000 Rand (~$15,000) per month. This includes payroll, utilities, maintenance, taxes, insurance. This number seems reasonable based on my experience and initial research. -‐ The 10 rooms average about $250/night in the winter, and $375/night in the summer -‐ He had three guests yesterday; I would conservatively estimate a 25% occupancy rate in the winter. -‐ In the summer, I would estimate a 75% occupancy rate. Conservatively, ball parking a 40% year-‐round occupancy rate, I'd estimate the total annual revenue at $450,546.86, or around $37,500 per month. I clearly need to do much more due diligence on this, but the initial research leads me to believe that there is more than sufficient cushion here that it warrants further investigation.
6) Ways to make money on this property As I mentioned in #2 above, this property ticks a number of compelling boxes, and I see three ways to make money here: -‐ Appreciation of the South African rand. Right now the rand is cheap at roughly 8-‐8.5 to the US dollar. I will happily trade US dollars, Euros, pounds, and the like for the rand. The rand over the years has been much stronger (in the high 5's and low 6's). In the early deleveraging stages of the global financial crisis, it briefly spiked as weak as 11.5 per dollar. Nearly every currency in the world did this as well. Long term, I think we ought to expect a rand that is 10% to 35% stronger than where it is today. -‐ Capital appreciation of the property We can pick this property up for a price that is less than half of what 'average' properties in Camp's Bay are selling for. Plus, whenever you buy a property for less than replacement cost, the capital appreciation is generally built in. I would suspect we should be able to sell it down the road for multiples of what we can buy it for today. -‐ Adding value to the business The unique thing about this deal is that it's not just a piece of property, it's an operating business. If we can add value to the business, we add value to the deal itself. The low-‐hanging fruit is to clearly improve the occupancy rate. This comes down to effective
marketing and promotion... something I think I know a little about. And if we can bring the occupancy rate up, the value of the business goes up, hence the value of the deal itself goes up.
7) Possible exits Ordinarily I would advocate a buy and hold strategy here. I'm happy to trade pieces of paper for high quality property, especially if that property provides a yield. I suspect the yield could be in the neighborhood of about 10% with a few basic changes. Nothing to faint over, but not a bad deal. In time, we should be able to improve that number even more. It's also possible we could flip the property... put it right back on the market and sell it for half a million to a million dollars more than what we paid for it within a 6 to 12 month period. The seller is in distress
because he owes the bank. In an all-‐cash deal with positive cash flow, we wouldn't have that problem and could afford to wait.
8) Key Risks There are certainly a few risks in the deal that I've seen so far which are worthy of highlighting: -‐ Time Every good distress deal is in distress because time is of the essence. Sometimes this means that you don't get to do all the due diligence you'd like to do. I've been in this position a number of times... it just means you have to prioritize what is most important (see #10 below) and take a risk. -‐ No books for the business
This is definitely a bit of an issue... but running a 10-‐bedroom boutique hotel is not particularly mystifying. It's not like buying a nuclear reactor. I've owned rental real estate all over the world, and the initial numbers make sense. But I have to imagine there will be more than a few surprises that we don't have visibility on right now. -‐ Interior issues The property is lovely, no doubt. There are a few small details in some of the rooms that I'm not wild about, though. Only a few of the rooms have full, unobstructed ocean views. Some of them don't have any ocean view at all (though they make up for it with the fantastic Table Mountain views). And I'm not wild about the carpeting in some of them. It's small potatoes right now, but something to think about in terms of the business. -‐ Global tourism I'm not overly bullish on the global economy, and tourism is not something that does well in a global recession. That being said, I think it would be very difficult for the property to lose money. If nothing else, it could be closed down in the off season. I also think that, because it's a luxury marquee property, this is in a different category than, say, the Holiday Inn Express. Moreover, I think there is major potential in marketing to both Chinese and Brazilian tourists (which nobody seems to be doing...) 9) Deal structure The current owner owes about 19 million rand ($2.3 million) to the bank. That's his baseline. The brokers told me that someone else offered to assume the debt and pay him an addition 1 million rand ($125,000). The offer was rejected.
This guy doesn't have very much room to maneuver. When I was touring the property, the banker was actually in his office. He is days away from losing this property. If I can put an offer on the table, it will buy time with the bank. The bank would prefer a cash offer. No bank wants to be in the business of owning property, they'd rather just get paid. This is where it gets very interesting. Typically in South Africa, the buyer pays about 8% in taxes and fees to assume title of a property. That's ridiculously steep. The current owner holds the property through a company. And he owns the business in a separate company. So we could, in theory, avoid paying the fees by purchasing the shares of his company rather than the property itself. In this way, the ownership of the property remains the same-‐-‐ it's still owned by the same company. Rather, it’s the ownership of the company that changes hands. We become the new owners of the company, and as the company owns the property, we are the ultimate beneficial owners of the property. This became a popular scheme to buy/sell property in South Africa; the government cracked down on it pretty hard, some years ago, charging a similar fee on share transfers. They've done the same in Panama. But here's the best part: he doesn't own the property/business with a South African company. He structured them out of Liechtenstein. So in essence we could buy the Liechtenstein companies from him, and there would be no change of ownership in South Africa, hence no fees. It would save us about a quarter of a million dollars. I would propose creating a new holding company (probably in the Marshall Islands) to own the Liechtenstein companies. Each of us would own our shares of the Marshall Islands company.
In other words, each investor would own shares of a Marshall Islands company. The Marshall Islands company would own 100% of two Liechtenstein companies. One of those Liechtenstein companies would own full title to the property, the other would own 100% of the boutique hotel business. For US investors, the Marshall Islands company would likely not be considered a controlled foreign corporation (depending on how many of you are interested), and definitely should NOT be considered a PFIC. So tax consequences seem fairly light at first look... but we need to do more research.
10) Next steps and due diligence For now, I need to know who is interested, and I need to know as soon as possible. Obviously you cannot commit right now, and neither can I, without more information. For me, this is completely rational, unemotional. I am interested in making money, and this ticks a lot of boxes that have been proven winners for me in the past. But I need to get more information to make a final decision.
The key due diligence that remains is about the property itself—all the legal title work, plus a structural engineering assessment and head to toe inspection. We also need much more information about the business. I'm also waiting on some local market comps as there are some other properties for sale in the area. But if this is something that you would be interested in participating in once we get more information and everything checks out, I need to hear from you as soon as possible with (1) your interest level, (2) how much you would be interested in investing, and (3) your accredited investor status. Remember, total purchase price will be in the neighborhood of $2.5 to $3.0 million (USD, based on the current exchange rate). 11) Bottom line My take on the property at this point is that we'd be buying a tier-‐1, high quality, luxury property at less than it's replacement cost (all the way down to the forks and knives) that generates positive cash flow with plenty of room for appreciation. It has both strong income potential, strong appreciation potential, and makes a hell of an inflation hedge.