ONROAD MOTORCYCLE (ONMC) RULE-MAKING KICKOFF · •CARB First Motorcycle Emissions Standards Adopted in 1975 •Most Recent CARB ONMC Standards Amendments in 1998 o Evaporative emissions

ON ROAD MOTORCYCLE WORKSHOP

ONROAD MOTORCYCLE (ONMC)RULE-MAKING KICKOFF

14/11/2018

OUTLINE

• ONMC Background and Standards

• Supporting Data

• Recent CARB Activity

• Potential Path Forward

ON ROAD MOTORCYCLE WORKSHOP 24/11/2018

NEED FOR EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS

• Over 90% of Californians Breathe Unhealthy Levels of Air Pollutants During Some Part of the Year

• A Major Source of These Pollutants is Transportation Related Combustion o Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)

o Reactive Organic Gases (ROG)

o Carbon Monoxide (CO)

• Together NOx and ROG form Ozone in Sunlighto Ground level ozone is a major component of smog

• CARB’s Mission Involves Protecting the Public Health by Providing Safe Clean Air to All Californians


NEED FOR EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS

• CARB Mobile Source 2030 Emission Reduction Goalso 80% NOx for South Coast

o 45% Green House Gas (GHG) emissions Statewide

• 2016 Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Action Plano Consider regulations that would create or expand upon emissions based

credit programs for zero-emission motorcycles

• Governor’s 2018 Zero-Emission Vehicle Executive Order o 5 million ZEVs in California by 2030

o 250,000 vehicle chargers installed in California by 2025


0100200300400500600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

On Road ROG Emissions Over Time (TPD)

Passenger Cars Motorcycles

ONMC EMISSIONS INVENTORY IN CA

• 2016 ONMC Emissions

o ~ 27 TPD of ROG

o Population ~ 688,000

• 2035 ONMC ROG Emissions Near Parity with LDV ROG Emissions

• ONMC Emissions are Significant when Considering VMT

o Passenger Car Miles ~100x Greater than ONMC

o ~ 0.5% ONMC vs. ~52% for Passenger Cars

ON ROAD MOTORCYCLE WORKSHOP 5

EMFAC Data_2014

4/11/2018

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

On Road ROG Category Contributions Over Time (%)

CARB MOTORCYCLE REGULATION HISTORY

• CARB First Motorcycle Emissions Standards Adopted in 1975

• Most Recent CARB ONMC Standards Amendments in 1998o Evaporative emissions effective in 2007

o Tail pipe emissions effective in 2008

• Many Other Countries Adopting More Stringent ONMC Emission Standards o Europe, Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea, Chile, Indonesia, India, etc.

o Many adopting in part/whole European Union Standards (EU)


• Regulation (EU) No 168/2013 Applies to ONMCs in Europeo Euro 4 (EU 4) is the current standard in effect since 2016

o Euro 5 (EU 5) is the latest standard going into effect in 2020

o EU ONMC Standard: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX:32013R0168

• Key Features of EU 5 Regulation:o Stringent exhaust emissions limits

o Uses World Motorcycle Test Cycle (WMTC) for emissions testing

o OBD II required

WHAT ARE THE THE EURO 4 AND EURO 5 STANDARDS?


ONMC EXHAUST EMISSION STANDARDS

8ON ROAD MOTORCYCLE WORKSHOP 4/11/2018

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

CA/EPA EU4 EU5 LEV III SULEV 30

g/km

HC + NOx Standards

CARB / USEPA EU4 EU 5 CARB SULEV 30

0.1 g/km HC0.06 g/km NOx

0.17 g/km HC0.09 g/km NOx

ONMC EXHAUST EMISSION STANDARDS

9ON ROAD MOTORCYCLE WORKSHOP 4/11/2018

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

CA/EPA EU4 EU5 LEV III SULEV 30

g/km

CO Standards

CARB / USEPA EU4 EU 5 CARB SULEV 30

ONMC EVAP EMISSION STANDARDS

10

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

CARB ONMC EU 4 EU 5 CARB OHRV LDV

HC

g/t

est

EVAP SHED Standards


OUTLINE


• Supporting Data




AVAILABLE ONMC EMISSIONS DATA

• European Rule Development Datao EU 5 technical feasibility and cost effectiveness study

o https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/f3f268fc-943f-11e7-b92d-01aa75ed71a1/language-en/format-PDF/source-48593974

• CARB Data (2007-2017)o Certification data: 1,251 bikes

o In-house research testing: 58 bikes


0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Cer

t Le

vel,

g/km

Year

Certification THC+NOx By Year

MANY CARB CERTIFIED ONMC MEET EU 4 STANDARDS


MANY CARB CERTIFIED ONMC MEET EU 4 STANDARDS


0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Cer

t Le

vel,

g/km

Year

Certification CO By Year

Lowest Cert Value

Year Average

CARB ONMC Limit

EU4 Nominal Limit

EU DRIVING CONTROL TECHNOLOGY TRENDS IN CA


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Perc

ent E

quip

ped

Year

Percent Control Devices Equipped By Certified Models Over Time

Three Way Catalyst Pulsed Air Injection Heated Oxygen Sensor Sequential Fuel Injection

OUTLINE


• Supporting Data




TAMPERING SURVEY

• 2017 CARB Surveyed 1000 Motorcycles for Evidence of Tamperingo Survey was an analysis of classified ads

• Key Findingso 34% tamper rate of Class III ONMC

o 93% of sample population was Class III ONMC

o Exhaust tampering was most common type of tampering


PORTABLE EMISSIONS MEASUREMENT SYSTEM (PEMS)

• CARB Deployed and Verified an Axion PEMS Unit Performance Against a Standard


• Planned PEMS Work:o Before-and-after tampering tests

• Potential Future PEMS work:o Screening tool to assess real world performance

ZERO EMISSIONS MOTORCYCLES (ZEMS)

• Key Obstacles to ZEM Adoptiono Cost

o Range

o Charging Availability and Time

• Costs of Batteries Continue to Drop

• Many ZEMs Over 100 Miles Rangeo ISR rider survey: 77% ride < 100 miles per day

• 2011 to 2016 EV Stations Increase > 10 Timeso Source: U.S. Dept of Energy

4/11/2018ON ROAD MOTORCYCLE WORKSHOP 19

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Lithium-ion Battery Price Survey ($/kWh)

ZEMS : CVRP

• Clean Vehicle Rebate Program (CVRP) has Given Over $600K in ZEM Rebateso $900 per ZEM

o Increased Number of Eligible ZEMs

o New funds awarded to expand program

• Staff Working on CVRP Motorcycle Surveys to Collect User Data

• CVRP Web Site: o https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng


ZEMS : LCFS UTILITY REBATES


• ZEMs Proposed Eligibile for Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) Program Utility Rebates Program in 2019o Proposal to Board April 2018

• Rebates Vary by Utility up to One Time $600

• Web Site:o https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/electricity/utilityrebates.htm

CARB OUTREACH

• 2017 Staff Met with Motorcycle Manufacturers to Discuss Needed Reductionso Manufacturers represented over 90% of CA Sales

• Key Takeaways o California is a small portion of global ONMC sales

o Expensive to produce models for a small market

o Most produce Euro 4 compliant motorcycles

o Most prefer CARB harmonization with EU standards over separate new CARB and EU standards


OUTLINE


• Supporting Data




HARMONIZATION BENEFITS

• Manufacturer Euro 5 ONMC Design Underwayo CARB 2020 proposal will be after EU 5 implementation

• Building for Larger Market Lowers Emissions Reduction Costso Elimination of duplicative design and testing resources

• EU 5 Standards Would Significantly Reduce Emissions from California ONMCo Tail pipe nominal emissions reduction near a factor of 10

o Evaporative nominal emissions 25% reduction


HARMONIZATION CHALLENGES

Example of Differences Between CARB and EU Standards that Must be Understood


EU 5 CARB

Fuel E5, RVP ~ 8.4 E10, RVP ~ 6.9

Drive Cycle WMTC FTP

Evaporative Tests 1 hour test OHRV TP 933 a 24 hour test

OBD Stage II No OBDReg and Category

DefinitionsL cat: power, speed and displacement ONMC class I, II , and III by displacement

Certification Ensure vehicles certification documentation can be accepted across jurisdictions

BEYOND HARMONIZATION

• Need Verification Procedures to Ensure Real World PerformanceRadon

• Potential In-Use Performance Monitoringo OBD-based inspection and maintenance requirements

o Tamper resistant designs and education

• Need to Consider ZEM Incentiveso Rebates

o Credits

o Fleet averaging


NECESSARY TESTING AND RESEARCH

• Perform CARB Testing to Better Understand Difference in Existing CARB and EU Protocols

• Perform PEMS Testing to Assess Real World Performance and the Emissions Impacts of Tampering

• Other Research for Inventory Updateo Population

o VMT

o Sales

o Useful Life

o Activity


TECHNICAL WORKING GROUPS

• Technical Workgroup Purposeo Engage technical expertise of stakeholders to address complex areas of harmonization

• Begin Technical Working Groups with Stakeholderso Testing Protocols - Fuels, Drive Cycles, Evap Test Procedures, etc.

o Procedural - Certification Streamlining and Jurisdictional Definitions, etc.

o Verification - Assess Real World Performance, OBD, Tampering, etc.

o ZEM Incentives - Fleet Averaging, Rebates, Credits, etc.


TECHNICAL WORKING GROUPS(CONTINUED)

• Who Can Participate?o Motorcycle Manufacturers

o Motorcycle Parts Manufacturers

o Regulators

CARB Program Staff

EPA

Section 177 States

o Standards Organizations

o Motorcycle and Component Emissions Testing Groups

o Dealer and Maintenance Groups

o Rider Groups


TECHNICAL WORKING GROUPS(CONTINUED)

• How Technical Working Groups Will Operate?o Led by CARB Staff

o Regular meetings

Monthly or as needed

1 to 2 years

o Participants contribute as necessary

Relevant expertise and input

Testing samples/resources

o Meeting summaries detailing issues resolved and issues yet to be resolved

o Final summary write-up of issues group resolved and rationales


TECHNICAL WORKING GROUPS

• Technical Working Groups Kicking Off in May 2018

• Contact CARB Staff to Participateo See Technical Work Group Flyers

• Stakeholder Participation is the Road to Success!


TIMELINE


May 2018:Kick-off Technical Working Groups

2018/19:CARB Vehicle

Testing

Late 2019:Results from Technical

Working Group

2019/20:Develop Proposal,

Analyze Costs and Benefits

2019:Inventory Update

• Manufacturers should plan for new standards for all motorcycles starting in MY2024

• Potential for optional phase-in and/or early adoption provisions to start in MY2021

Late 2020:Board Hearing

CONTACTS

• Please Contact Us With Any Questions or Concerns About Potential Harmonization with EU ONMC Emissions Standards

• Project Lead: Jason McPhee, P.E.

(916)323-1104

[email protected]

• Manager, Engineering & Regulation Development SectionScott Bacon

(916) 322-8949

[email protected]


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QUESTIONS?


Questions?

Documents

ONROAD MOTORCYCLE (ONMC) RULE-MAKING KICKOFF · •CARB First Motorcycle Emissions Standards Adopted in 1975 •Most Recent CARB ONMC Standards Amendments in 1998 o Evaporative emissions