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Operational Analysis forHQ 1(UK)Armd Div onOp TELIC
John G Owen
Jarrod Cornforth
Dstl Support to Operations Group
© Dstl 2003
11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
OA Support Pre-Deployment
• Work during Nov 02 - Jan 03
• Conducted and reported by analysts at HQ Land Command
– Supported by analysts at Dstl
• Examination of ‘Northern Option’ plan
– Land combat modelling
– Logistic estimates (reworked for ‘Southern Option’)
© Dstl 2003
11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
OA Support on Deployment
• HQ started to deploy in mid-Jan 03
• 2 analysts deployed 28 Jan 03
– Remained with Div HQ Main throughout
• Analysts attached to G3 Plans
– Worked for cells in HQ and DSG
– Also for Brigade HQs
• Some reachback support from NCHQ and UK
– But little used because of comms problems
© Dstl 2003
11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
OA Workspace
© Dstl 2003
11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Accomodation for Analysts
© Dstl 2003
11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Local Scenery
© Dstl 2003
11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
OA Tasks in Support of Warfighting
• Static Scoring and Force Ratio estimates
• Battle modelling
– Outcomes and casualty levels
• Risk to helicopters from ground fire
• Campaign intensity and duration
• Logistic and movement estimation
– Ammunition requirements
– Logistic reach
– Spreadsheet tools of convoy movement
© Dstl 2003
11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Example Questions
• What is the ability of units of 16 Air Asslt Bde to occupy GOSPs against opposition?
• What is the effect of exchanging a BG of 16 Air Asslt Bde for a square BG of 7 Armd Bde?
© Dstl 2003
11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Methods Used
• Examination of force ratios using the BAMS static scoring system
• Estimation of attrition and battle outcome using the combat model WPT
© Dstl 2003
11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Force Comparisons
0
16 AirAssltBde
7 ArmdBde
16 AirAssltBde
7 ArmdBde
Inf Bn +Mor Bn
Tk Regt Mech InfBn
Inf Bde+ ArtyRegt
MechBde +Div Arty
Arm Bde+ DivArty
BA
MS
Sco
res
Iraqi Force3RHA
Square Armd BG 4Square Armd BG 3Square Armd BG 2Square Armd BG 17RHA
3 Regt AACD Sqn HCRPathfinder Pl1 R Irish
3 Para1 Para
BGs exchanged
© Dstl 2003
11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Fighting in the GOSPs
• Do not want to damage the installations
• Limited lines of sight, built-up area – urban combat?
THEREFORE:
• No UK Arty, Avn or Air support
• Iraqi artillery can be used
• Apply degradation factors, from historical analysis, to attrition rates
© Dstl 2003
11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Impact of Combat Work
• Military planners also do modelling
• Force ratio work and battle modelling generally reinforced rather than contradicted military assessment
• No ‘wargaming’ carried out - no time!
• Provided a degree of independent corroboration
© Dstl 2003
11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Logistic Reach
RS
G A
T K
UW
AIT
BF
I AT
VIP
ER
X Km from RSG to Fwd Ech
BULK FUEL STRETCH
MATERIEL STRETCH
Y Km from Viper to Fwd Ech
Z DAYSBULK FUEL
Z DAYSMATERIELTIME REQUIRED TO MOVE START UP STOCKS & SUSTAIN FWD ELEMENTS
© Dstl 2003
11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Moving Into Iraq