Integration of a Mesoscale Ensemble System into National

Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations

Operational Aspects of the

COMET Collaborative Project

Participants

• Stony Brook University:– Brian Colle, Mike Erickson

• NWS New York City:– Jeff Tongue, Nancy Furbush, Matt Sardi, Nelson Vaz,

Adrienne Leptich

• NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly:– Al Cope

• NWS Eastern Region Headquarters– Josh Watson

• NWS MARFC:– Joe Ostrowski

Objective

Integrate data from the Stony Brook University Mesoscale Ensemble System (MES)

1.Into AWIPS.

2.Into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor (SSHP) application.

Why ?

• Allow forecasters to perform mesoscale stochastic hydrology on small, fast responding basins.

How??

• Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to assimilate via AWIPS D2D (GFE) and the Web.

• Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to integrate into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor.

Data

• Web

• AWIPS

• GFE

Web

http://chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/nwp_graphics.html

http://chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/nwp_graphics.html

Precip Plumes

AWIPS

• 00Z 12/36 km 14 Member Ensemble data

• Available ~11 UTC

• 36 Hour Forecast

• Volume Browser:– Members– Means/Standard Deviation– Probability of Exceedence

AWIPS

AWIPS – QPF Members

AWIPS - Mean

AWIPS – Temperature Members

AWIPS – Wind Members

AWIPS - Concerns

• Installation Instructions are Available.

• Still needs some “clean-up.”

• New “build” issues.

• Stony Brook is not an Operational Center.

SSHP

Integrating Stony Brook ESP into SSHP

1.Deterministically: From the AWIPS GFE

2.Stochastically: From the Stony Brook EPS

Accessing SSHP

1. GFE QPF - Deterministic

Convert 6 hour NDFD QPF to RR2 text product for use with SSHP

Note that GFE 6-hr Pcpn is evenly distributed

In SSHPBasins:

– Lodi - Saddle R.– Gardiner – Wallkill R.– HoHoKus – Hohokus Brook– Springfield – Rahway R. – Beacon Falls – Naugatuck R.– Southbury – Pomperaug R.– Yantic – Yantic R.

2. EPS into SSHP (under development)

• Experimenting with the Lodi Basin.

• Stony Brook University is producing hourly resolution basin averaged precipitation.– RR2 Product (ftp’ed):

• Mean• Worst Case scenario• Individual member data

Ensemble mean accumulated 1 hr forecast for hour 32

Ensemble mean for the Lodi Basin

Worst case

Mean Average

GFE QPF

SBU Ensemble Members

Selecting Basin QPF in SSHP

Example Worse Case in SSHP

Future Work

• Automate the FTP of Data

• Train Staff

• Modify SSHP with help of OH to display ensemble hydrographs

The Future in SSHP