Operational Hydrologic Forecasts Challenges at the North Central River Forecast Center

National Weather Service

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Operational Hydrologic Forecasts Operational Hydrologic Forecasts Challenges at the North Central River Challenges at the North Central River

Forecast CenterForecast Center

18 November 2013First Vinogradov’s Conference

St. Petersburg, Russia


Water PredictionsforLife Decisions

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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

• Review of the Forecasting Process• Forecasting Centers• NCRFC Highlights

• Forecasting the Red River• Challenges

• Opportunities



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NCRFC Forecasting ProcessNCRFC Forecasting Process



• Opportunities



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National Centers for National Centers for Environmental PredictionEnvironmental Prediction

Weather Prediction Center

Ocean Prediction Center

Climate Prediction Center

Environmental Modeling Center

Aviation Weather CenterKansas City, Missouri

NCEP Central OperationsStorm Prediction CenterNorman, Oklahoma

Space Weather Prediction CenterBoulder, Colorado

College Park,Maryland

Tropical Prediction Center(National Hurricane Center)

Miami, Florida



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Weather Forecast OfficesWeather Forecast Offices



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River Forecast CentersRiver Forecast Centers



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NCRFC Area of ResponsibilityNCRFC Area of ResponsibilityForecast Point Locations

426 Forecast Points

1173 Sub-watersheds Major drainages

▸Hudson Bay▸Mississippi▸Great Lakes

Hudson Bay Drainage

Great Lakes

Drainage

Mississippi R.

Drainage



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Forecasting ProcessForecasting Process



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Forecasting the Red RiverForecasting the Red River



• Opportunities



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1989 Spring Runoff Forecast1989 Spring Runoff Forecast



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Red River Spring Melt Red River Spring Melt Forecast: our conclusionForecast: our conclusion

• NCRFC had the right Temperature and Precipitation forecasts from NCEP

• Yet, the Snow-17 and Sacramento Models greatly over-predicted the crest and the runoff volume at Fargo

• Why?

• Drought conditions during Summer and Fall: development of macropores on the clay?

• Effect of subsurface drains is not included in the NWS models• Effect of surface ponding is not included in the NWS models



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Summary and Working Summary and Working HypothesisHypothesis

• Traditionally, the NWS models under-forecasted the Red River of the North flows during the Spring Runoff events

• Drought seems to be playing an important role on a watershed subject to climate extremes: (-40C to +40C) by compacting the Fargo Clay soil and creating large preferential flow paths, not modeled under the current hydrology models

• Heavy snow during the winter time covers the preferential flow paths and blocks rapid infiltration through them in fast-snow-melting events (1989). During slow events (2013), the soil thaws, and opens the preferential flow paths to fast infiltration.

• It is unknown what the effect of the tile drains is on the overall shape of the hydrograph. A major problem is to identify where the drains are, and how they are operated.

• Flooded fields in areas blocked by road embankments also contribute to excessive infiltration.



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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline



• Opportunities



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OpportunitiesOpportunities• Understand the hydrologic cycle in soils like the Fargo clay• Use remote sensing techniques to identify:

• Location and hydrologic/hydraulic properties of tile drains/soil/crop in farms (where is the water going?)

• Ponded fields, volume of water and rates of release (where is the water going?)

• Develop new models, or adapt existing models to represent the hydrologic processes, both natural and man-made, on the Red River Watershed.



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Hydrograph ModelHydrograph ModelPossible Changes?



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Thank you!Thank you!

Questions?



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HyperlinksHyperlinks



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Red River Soil MapRed River Soil Map

Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU



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Bubbles in a Flooded FieldBubbles in a Flooded Field

Courtesy Fargo Firefighter, via Grand Forks WFO



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Infiltration Test at Campbell, MNInfiltration Test at Campbell, MN

Courtesy Roy Mayeda, Campbell HS Science Teacher



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Red River Soil ProfilesRed River Soil Profiles




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Red River Soil Prismatic ColumnsRed River Soil Prismatic Columns




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Fargo Clay SoilFargo Clay Soil




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Farm Tile DrainsFarm Tile Drains

• Question: how many miles of tile drains have been installed on the Bois de Sioux River (5.2% of the Red River above Pembina)

• (Hint: Fargo has 850 km of city streets and Grand Forks has about 390 km)



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Tile Drain Under ConstructionTile Drain Under Construction



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Operational Hydrologic Forecasts Challenges at the North Central River Forecast Center