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Opinion Polls; …Not to abuse but to give an indication of public perceptions…(should flicker)

Giving Ugandans a chance to understand how opinion polls are conducted

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An opinion poll is a scientific

and represent

ative

survey designe

d to measur

e

the views of

a specific group

– for example

a country’s electors

(for most

political polls)

or parents or trade union

members.

Public opinion is a critical force in shaping and transforming society.

A properly conducted and disseminated survey gives the general public an opportunity for its voice to be heard.

Through opinion research the public, politicians, the media and other interested groups have access to accurate measures of public attitudesand intentions.

“Scientific” polling is among the most successful political developments of the last century. Public opinion polls help guide policy by giving decision-makers impartial information about what the public wants.

Polls also alert the public to their own hopes, desires, and political goals. They are mirrors, permitting individuals to understand where they fit into the political system.“ESOMAR WORLD RESEARCH CODES & GUIDELINES”

… the essence of a scientificpoll is to secure a representative sample,rather than a vast one.

Statistical theory allows us toestimate this.

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Introduction Research World International, an independent global

research company commissioned this opinion poll between 23rd August -29th August 2012 with the aim of assessing the opinions of the FDC delegates about the on going party primaries to chose the leader of FDC

Research World International designed and implemented a public opinion Telephonic survey to assess the opinions and attitudes of Ugandans on how they view their party, knowledge of the activities and choice of their leader.

The total sample was 335 delegates were talked to and their opinion sought (41%) of all the delegates were interviewed.

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Introduction Cont’d…

The population investigatedThe population (universe) investigated in this study was made up of all Ugandan persons who are FDC delegates both in rural and urban areas. For the purpose of sample design, FDC delegates register 2010 was used as the basis for estimating population distribution across regions. Uganda has four regions namely Central, Eastern, Northern and Western Regions. The sample was therefore distributed proportionate to the delegate samples in each region

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Study objectives

This opinion poll had five main objectives, namely:

To get the delegates opinion on who they consider to be a most suited person to lead FDC

Measuring the attributes of such leader in comparison to others

To Understand issues that are shaping the campaign

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Methodology of the study; Research

Design The study employed

a purely /Telephonic approach

Sampling Framework The methodology was designed to ensure a Nationally

Representative, randomly selected sample of FDC delegates We used a telephonic interview method to reach the

respondents

Regions Total population 2010

delegates register Central 73

Eastern 96

Northern 64

Western 102

  Total 335

Below was our sample coverage across regions. Whereas the populations of delegates may have

change by the date of this poll, the delegates register of 2010 is the most credible source

.

Gender of respondents

Male66%

Female34%

Gender of Respondents

Age Groups

15 - 1819 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 4445 - 54 >55 Refused0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%

0.3% 1.8%

10.7%

22.4%

33.7%

17.9%

11.3%

1.8%

Age groups of respondents

Highest education level completed

None

Primary

Scho

ol

Secon

dary

Schoo

l

High Sc

hool

Univers

ity

Post

Gradua

te

Refused

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

1.2% 4.8%

16.1%10.4%

44.2%

6.0%

17.3%

Education attained by Respondents

Regional Distribution of the sample. Please note that the sample is dependent on the number of districts

Central Eastern Northern Western0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

21.8%

28.7%

19.1%

30.4%

Are you a leader in FDC Party structure? Some were delegates but not a leader in the district structure

Yes73%

No27%

Percent

Did you attend the previous delegate's conference in Namboole last year?

No

Yes

0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%

9.55%

90.45%

Whether Respondents attended the del-egates conference

Did you vote for the party leadership during the delegate's conference in Namboole last year?

No Yes0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%

10.75%

89.25%

Whether Respondents voted during the del-egates Conference

Are you aware of that the race for FDC president is on?

Yes

No

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0%

97.6%

2.4%

Talking about the choice for the FDC presidency, if elections were held today, which

candidate would you vote for?

Mugisha Muntu Nandala Mafabi Geoffrey Ekanya Not Decided0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%

46.9%

25.7%

0.6%

26.9%

Chart showing those who would vote if elections were held today

Talking about the choice for the FDC presidency, if elections were held today, which

candidate would you vote for? By Region

Central Eastern Northern Western Overall0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%47% 45% 44%

51%47%

29%34%

22%18%

26%

0% 2% 0% 0% 1%

25%19%

34% 31%27%

Mugisha Muntu Nandala MafabiGeoffrey Ekanya Not Decided

Talking about the choice for the FDC presidency, if elections were held today, which

candidate would you vote for? By Gender

Male Female Overall0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50% 48% 46% 47%

26% 25% 26%

1% 0% 1%

26% 29% 27%

Mugisha Muntu Nandala MafabiGeoffrey Ekanya Not Decided

Talking about the choice for the FDC presidency, if elections were held today, which candidate would you vote for? By Age group

15 - 18 19 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 >55 Refused Overall0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%10

0.00

%

33.3

0%

55.6

0%

54.7

0%

38.9

0% 51.7

0%

44.7

0%

16.7

0%

46.9

0%

0.00

%

33.3

0%

22.2

0%

18.7

0%

38.1

0%

18.3

0%

18.4

0%

16.7

0% 25.7

0%

0.00

%

0.00

%

0.00

%

0.00

%

1.80

%

0.00

%

0.00

%

0.00

%

0.60

%

0.00

%

33.3

0%

22.2

0%

26.7

0%

21.2

0% 30.0

0%

36.8

0%

66.7

0%

26.9

0%

Mugisha Muntu Nandala Mafabi Geoffrey Ekanya Not Decided

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Reason to Choose the Candidates

NANDALA MAFABI MUGISHA MUNTU GODFREY EKANYA

1. Good mobiliser2. Hard working3. He is the opposition leader, he has

potential4. He is fearless5. He is accessible in all regions of the

country6. He has been in the party for long,

he has fought corruption7. Mp for the area, at any need he is

there and willing to help8. Strong hearted9. He pushes for walk to work10. Change from westerners11. He has displayed the corrupt ones12. Regional balance needed13. He is very transparent, speaks his

mind14. He is a good mobiliser, zero

tolerance to corruption15. Some one who can improve party

structures16. Good performance, FDC needs a

civilian

1. Consist ante and clean, very obedient2. He is respected3. Hard working4. Been with NRM before5. International figure, he is on ground6. Strong contender, hard work7. He is capable8. He can pressurize NRM9. He is always available10. He is highly liked, potential and capability11. He is not emotional12. His military background is an advantage13. Has a good trail, good job as a mobiliser14. Able to attract NRM supporters, confident and calm15. Dedicated and good person16. Heart for the party, approachable, straight forward

patient17. Good attitude, very confident and down to earth18. Potential leader, he knows Musevenis tricks19. Confident and stands by his word20. Promised to vote for him, capable leader, military

background21. Focused and not temperamental, good listener22. He is chumming,

1. young energetic2. has been a good leader,

better mobilization skills

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Reason to Choose the Candidates cont…NANDALA MAFABI MUGISHA MUNTU UNDECIDED

1. Clean record , is uniting the party2. He is a fellow easterner, he is a

leader of opposition3. We need to end the military

experience, region balance4. Opposition leader has advantage5. He works like Besigye6. Honest and transparent, principled7. He is a civilian8. Come from east because there is

much support from there9. Good mobiliser, fundraiser10. He has delivered so far11. Good track record and is

approachable12. Allow Kizza to become the flag

bearer for the fdc presidency, muntu is a spy of nrm so he may not win

1. Born again coming from western2. Good manifesto3. Has struggled for long4. Very influential, with clear vision 5. He is knowledgeable and people like him6. He is a unifying factor7. Very focused and mature8. He is ideal, reliable , presentable9. Very well prepared10. He promised to vote for him next time after Besigye 11. Capability, integrity, leadership skills12. Informed, people minded, capable13. Listens to people, accepts defeat14. He is exposed nationally15. Experience in politics for long time16. Known in the party for a long time and knows all the party dynamics17. He is capable and makes peace in the party18. Has a character that attracts people to the party, speaks to the point19. Good for the post because of the situation in the country20. Qualities should be considered, he has good ideas, worked with him

and he is good21. Can fight corruption in the country and party22. He is more mature than the other candidates23. Good record when he was in the army, he is born again, having army

skills

1. We want some body who is popular and strong hearted

2. Waiting for their manifesto

3. They are all good4. Should be able to

mobilize funds for the party

5. one who can mobilize votes form grass root

6. a good mobiliser7. non has appealed to her8. Nandala is not a good

speaker, Muntu is a good mobiliser, Ekanya is unserious

9. manifesto will help in decision making

10.they have not campaigned

11.They are all good mobiliser

12.should be able to fight corruption

13.one who cuts across between NRM and FDC

14.They are all good at the moment and we are waiting for them to come so that we make decision

15.Doesn't have good information about the candidate

16.They are all cable candidates

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Contact For more analysis about this poll, please contact: Dr. Patrick Wakida Chief Executive Officer 3rd Floor, Country Mall-Kiwatule, Naalya Road, Kampala. Tel: +256-312290569/0776642764 Email: patrick.wakida@researchworld-int.net

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Thank you