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Opportunities for
Strategic Cooperation EU-Russia
Anna Brzozowska, EU Delegation in Moscow
Russia – strategic partner - before the crisis…
•Russia - 3rd trading partner for EU , with 9.7% of total EU trade, just after USA and China
•EU 1st commercial partner for Russia (52.3%)
•UE-Russia trade doubled from 2004
•2008: € 278 billions
Russia – 3rd trading partner 2008, in billions of euro
435,8
326,3
278,8
177,8
135,7
117,3
100,1
65,1
61,9
61,0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
United States
China
Russia
Switzerland
Norway
Japan
Turkey
South Korea
Brazil
India
Source: Eurostat (Comext, Statistical regime 4)
2nd export partner 2008, billions of euro
249,4
105,2
97,7
78,5
54,2
43,7
42,4
31,7
31,5
26,4
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
United States
Russia
Switzerland
China
Turkey
Norway
Japan
United Arab Emirates
India
Brazil
Source: Eurostat (Comext, Statistical regime 4)
3rd import partner 2008, billions of euro
247,9
186,4
173,6
92,0
80,1
74,9
45,9
39,4
35,6
34,2
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
China
United States
Russia
Norway
Switzerland
Japan
Turkey
South Korea
Brazil
Libya
Source: Eurostat (Comext, Statistical regime 4)
Trends EU Russia 2006-2008
billions of euro
-100 000
-50 000
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
2006 2007 2008
Exports Imports Balance
Source: Eurostat (Comext, Statistical regime 4)
Trends: EU Trade with Russia
(January 2006 - May 2009)
-10 000
-5 000
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
2006 2007 2008 2009
Balance
Exports
Imports
Source: Eurostat (Comext, Statistical regime 4)
Crisis
FDI inflows declined 45% (y-o-y) in the first half of 2009 to € 4.1 billion.
Overall foreign investment, including loans and portfolio investment, fell by 30.9% (y-o-y) to € 21.4 billion.
EU accounts for about 75% of foreign investment inflows.
Effects of the crisis
Imports UE from Russia: -40%;
exports UE -36%And still…EU remained Russia’s largest trade partner, accounting for 51.7% of Russia’s total trade turnover.
Russian reaction
- G20 Declarations - But … increased tariffs, non-tariff measures (SPS)
- Calculated cost for EU 400 millions €
Future
Partnership Agreement (1994) New Agreement will replace it
(negotiations) Relation to WTO accession
- almost finalised but timing unsure - New context Customs Union with
Belarus and Kazakhstan
Future Recovery to pre-crisis level in 2-3-
years? President Medvedev’s Modernisation
address EU response – Partnership for
Modernisation- Approximation of financial and
technical standards- Innovation- WTO accession- Person-to- Person exchanges, visa,
work permit
