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University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons ScholarlyCommons Finance Papers Wharton Faculty Research 10-1-1996 Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility Andrew B. Abel University of Pennsylvania Janice C. Eberly Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/fnce_papers Part of the Finance Commons, and the Finance and Financial Management Commons Recommended Citation Recommended Citation Abel, A. B., & Eberly, J. C. (1996). Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility. The Review of Economic Studies, 63 (4), 581-593. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2297794 This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/fnce_papers/158 For more information, please contact [email protected].

Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

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Page 1: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania

ScholarlyCommons ScholarlyCommons

Finance Papers Wharton Faculty Research

10-1-1996

Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

Andrew B. Abel University of Pennsylvania

Janice C. Eberly

Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/fnce_papers

Part of the Finance Commons, and the Finance and Financial Management Commons

Recommended Citation Recommended Citation Abel, A. B., & Eberly, J. C. (1996). Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility. The Review of Economic Studies, 63 (4), 581-593. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2297794

This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/fnce_papers/158 For more information, please contact [email protected].

Page 2: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

Abstract Abstract Investment is characterized by costly reversibility when a firm can purchase capital at a given price and sell capital at a lower price. We solve for the optimal investment of a firm that faces costly reversibility under uncertainty and we extend the Jorgensonian concept of the user cost of capital to this case. We define and calculate cU and cL as the user costs of capital associated with the purchase and sale of capital, respectively. Optimality requires the firm to purchase and sell capital as needed to keep the marginal revenue product of capital in the closed interval [cL, cU). This prescription encompasses the case of irreversible investment as well as the standard neoclassical case of costlessly reversible investment.

Disciplines Disciplines Economics | Finance | Finance and Financial Management

This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/fnce_papers/158

Page 3: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

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Page 4: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

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Page 5: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

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Page 6: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

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Page 7: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

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Page 8: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

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Page 9: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

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Page 10: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

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i3ubolq 31J1I3V31 Isnigism 3111 '(3iloq Ismiiqo 13bnU bus 31311W � 'A' )(i � 231121152 A'XII ,Isliqs3 lo

.(t3vii33qe31 () bns (8) 2fl0itEIJ)3 LU n3vig 21115121103 315 Ci 'IlE5Up3ni 21111 ,0 >'(\(lç) isdI 02 ,l >%( >0 1sf!) gn111533$I � oi in3lsviup3

i&1i gc1i1Is31 bun 1)i\) 'd '1itsup3ni cidi gniIqiituM nisido 3W 'ç-I)\tk) = (/ ,'A)i

Page 11: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

(€) .{[i_ utC* { .}xsm (i A)'I

ni 2mii owl inI ñi !dthin3I11ib ion 3iE ..X bn \3 ni .2lsigoini 2IiI3ii s bi5Iqiini d 01 51n () noiiEup

noiisimiiqo rti illiw b1nio22n noii13up nEmlbfl rfT ai (E) noiil3up3 ni m3ldoiq

th no niu3i biiupi di i (lx) noiisup lo bi2 bnErf ihi dT biqx1 di 21 noitEupo 21ñ1 10 bi2 bnnrl idii rIT .miil

2uIq [c-IM] wofl rI3 di1o nui2i2no niui5l 1sui3

+ ('I 'VA? - jniil tIi lo u1nv r1i ni nro bbqx 3th V ('J + (L 'j)(y

L_'ç)((. � _i)i) iiioiq niiEi3qo di t\ 21 'J1o t8i thwoi b3i33qx3 fti 3ni

22230i d woId bbnuod bnB vodB bbrwod 2! miii di lo io15IdT ol Isup im rIiwoi biaqx rijiw

di 2uIIT .1 >t1i 1no bnnii

2illo1q niiniqo lo u1sv iniq bi3qx .1 >ii ino bnii iinil 2!

liiiini fiB illiw 0 3rnii in anid mill rIi inrli oqqu ((A)'1 tniiqn3 10 noiinutV Inniginm rIi 11 .A )boi2 Innqs3

o Eniiq& figuon3 I1 (13inib3mmi mill &Ii nnrii 221 21

<(o ii . oi Inup3 flOilf!U16V 1nniinm rIi Anm Inniinm IJ )tnm 01 lniiqn3 rIuon3 a'ud binibmmi miii rI1 � (o 1! .c!t ol li!up Inliq&1o noiinulnv

.0 mii Is bo12 1511q53 d1 ni qmu on 21

ninino3 ion 23ob (.) noiinup lo 3b12 bnnii idii 31!T"

f1i2nrf3iuq riliw bini3o22s awoft (1253 3(11 flui331hi 21W131 nn rn-ill 3111 'd h325113iuq lsiiq&1o linu 11353 .Iniiqn3 ni1b2 10

3113 02 \ 21203 bns (Y A),A"l d mill 3(11 io 31J15v 3111 2325313ff! ni bnsmixsrn 3r11 03 in3fni23vn! 3viIi2oq lo noiludiiino3

di iebnu 13i51 11W0112 2A - (Y A)4)+\ 2! () noiisup3

F

Page 12: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

Ithi-iEq di uifT 'A ni 113iin3bi btori () noiisup3 dJ Iup 'A o diiw bi2 bnscf ñI dJ 10 viivi,b .'A oi i3q251 diiw bi bni1 daii d3 10 visviib Iiiimq b!i noil nm11ib Ininnq 2irli nimioh!

() ( ,) ++(LA), ".4 = ( ,'Ah'

li3liqn3 lo noiinulsv 1snigiim 1i () noiisupH Inniaism di iol noi,iqx, iIqmi n i oT .(YA)'A\J

rti initi ion bnn , A \ ' v niIb ,1niiq lo noilsuhw

Inn iism rIi ndW ik 1 Iniiqno lo 3Uboiq 3UV3i Inn iinrn Invi3ini dli lo ionlni cI1 ni i Iniiqs3 lo noiinulnv

cI nvi i 1o noiiuIov di bnn oi i trimivni oig (ô) 0 bnn?-i- ,,icIw

n ibni Iniiqn3 lo noiiaulnv Inniinm rIi ni1W ois-non i lnrniavni o1 i&Ii o In'rilni iIi lo

isiiqs3 lo noiis,jlsv Isniiam ,JIi inv5rq 01 211J330 1nml?vni 111w '3iIoq aidi lo rniol biq dT .1nvi1ni id1 nivn1 moil ,d1 iol noilibno3 sithnuod di thiw wobd b3Inns d

.mIdoiq inm3vni noiinimulqo rti lo noilniuiq 3himsinq iuo nI

lo uonomorI i (''A)'I noii3nuI uInv di jn3idoiq A)'A"I Iniiqn3 lo noiinulnv 1nniinm ,ril wrtT .X bnn 'A ni no

nn zn3d bnE ,Y bnn 'A ni oix rg3b 1o 2uongomorI i

noiinulnv Iisniginm 3111 n3rtw 1no oisnon i + 'i1oq Inmilqo Iniiqn3 lo 1iq nd3iuq r11 2li3up, (')( 'A)"I 1nliqn 10

lo jinu b&, hnlimi .ois nw1n i ( - ( 'A)\I)I mdi

- d mill fi lo 3uIv 3111 2ni3ni mu ili d bIo2 1niiqn di ol ln3miavni 3vi1n3n lo noiiudiujno3 3r11 02 (Y 'A).A'4

nwoIl2 2A .(çL 'A)I - %- i () noimnup ni bnnmixnm 3111 (1311w Ino ousnon ai - % iIoq Lnmiiqo 3111 u3bnu u3inI

lo 3311q &ne rD 2bup.3 (X,'A)V tsiiqs3 lo noi1,wfv 1nni8urm 3111 urIT .ou 2swIn 2i ((Yb 'A)\I - X) 't- miii o Inmiqs3

Oi 2 113w 2 oinon uol 2bIorI () ni noiiilup3 nnmlbfl .in3mi23vni Isrniiqo

8

Page 13: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

?woorp-bo?iu ouq pip-couoci COUq!IOU2 1I?cq pcoMg2 DflUJ0? (j j) jot s ccoi. bLc?cufouoU o pc

)y )1' ouq )(\ IIJ11? 201I2A qic pip-couwct couqirioui oqqiiiou o ?ofia1w ipc ?wooIp-bo?riu couqi!ou?

(ion)

(Too)

)V ouq) OLC giAcu p) pc 2uJoo1p-bo2iu couqiiou?ipc ponuqouc 01. fl jpc iojnc o) o qJcc ponuqoucnuqcofc UOULO LO?? !UAc?w.Jcu1 oujA ij c)) LG0CC? ouc oti iii pc IUcLIOL o qic tucLAol [' fl] jpc ULW Mill!UA4WcU I? LO MCU JJc W0L!U0I A9Jfl1!0U o cIJbJLSJ c))Wfl? ?oi21A qic ponuqoQ couqiuou jçccojj rpo obriwoj

I" oqqwou ID ?o!?QiU rpc qIjLcuIoj cdnoiou ( X())

(1. + =I) +())+1

(o)

qicLcufJoJ cdnoiou OL Ipc wmiuoj AoJnoJou o cobioj OY8c) iujo cdnoLiou () Atcq o ?ccouq-oLqcL oLqIuoL?

npirruiu qic qcijuwou o ) ouq cdnoJou? ( go gp

I\ (gc)

• (8p)

i(v'i)= (go)

oLqcL bouioj qcuAoiAc? oj qJc AJSC nucqouqcui1iou o ) AicJq? cxbLc??iou? OL qic oIIOMJu pipcL-

ipe qcuiIou 'U cdnoiou () ouq fl?tU qicCx)

0? ipe urntiuoj Aonoqou oi4cobqope muucu ?iwbJ? 0? o 1nuciou o ) qi ioiio o y o y j)cuc

Page 14: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

(Eli) (dli)

iqqu r1i Ii mdi lns1Eu ctoiiibno3 i1no3-dir1 dT ns lo noiiaukv l13nirsm ,th ni3 i bdsi i 'ithnuod A rhod i au 1aup 11kw ,kiiqE3 lo linu lEnoiikbbE

mkj in bdzi al 'çinbnuod iwoI sIi Ii '1in1imi .'A bnE bnE .'A In diod Jnliq& lo 1na3I ft 1sup iaum r11 lEfil 1iJ2fl iOh1fft anoiiibno l3Ejno3-dir1 dT .'A ion aob , Jsmiqn3 lo iinu tanoitibbs nn lo noitnulnv Innigmm

.O13flOfl ai ln,mjavni ndw gnEr1D

( ioI nolIu1o Iaisn3 9dT .11

lo noiinulsv tnnigmm riI iol niv1oa ni gisi1a iuO 1fiuin1Thb di ot noimuloa 1n13n3 dI nisido 03 ai Iniiqs

ni anoilibno3 u3bnuod iuol r1i eu 03 n3113 bns (Q) noiisup i1 owl di nirrrI3i3b ot (dn11) bns (dn0I) anoiinup

autsv r1I nim13Ib ol bnn noiluloa 1sin dm ni ai3i3fnsiEq

•J( bns ( al3ggilI di lo isnibio 13b1o-bnoa &1i 01 nokmutoa IJ13n 3dT

niwo1Io1 ,dm lo atom di av1ovni (Q) noitsup3 1suin311ib bns tixiQ Iqrnsx3 iol a) noilsup3 3imslbsup

((lQQl)

(il)

(1 )c bns O <+i = (0)c vszno3 1toiiia ai (ç)c mdi 3ioT4

antI 0 = (t)q isuil 3ion oa1A .0< () aur1T .0 < - ?--- = laiisa rkiulw 0 > bris 0 < q aiooi J3nuiaib owl

(El)

nn w 0 = (t)c noiisup3 3135Ibnup rfi lo aiooi dt gniaU

as (Q) noiInup3 Isiin3l3Ilib 3(11 01 noiiuloa 1513n3g 3113 aaiqx

315 ( I) noilsup3 lo aiooi rii lo a3irt3qolq l3diO .xibn3qqA dm lo A j15q ni n3vig

01

Page 15: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

11

OPIUm cbpci cxbLc22mou2 IOL 1P2C COU2WIJI?

W I' IIJG UX1 2GC110U M fl2C IjJC pofluqULA couqTlion2 10

qoc2 fbI GLLAC cxbjicil xbLQ2 OW 101. IC COU2IUIJI2 \JUU

bucmu 10 qcLmAc 1]J UCLUJ IOLW2 01 IjJ2C obliou 1LW2 Pill

10 2G11 cUbmIUJ ("j)). 9G40JU (io88) fl2C2 C0U1IUIJ1 C1U1W2

1PC CUfi Ol)ImOU 10 bflLcpU2Q cbiiii ('B) Uuq 1JJ bill Obl!OU

20 IPC WUL1LJUJ AiJIfl 01cUb1j dnq2 Jb1n2 IPG 11C(2 °1CO2IIA LCACL2IPIIIIA IJJG ULW CULJ P0W bflLCpU2c Uuq 2J C9b!(9j

bo2mIiAc (2Qc cdniou (oU) PCI0MY In q cucLj WC 01wimuj LGAUflC bLoqnc pA jr) MCL qJC COIJ2IUUI N

CUbWJ Uuq iUCLCU72 rPG cbccq bLcul AI9fl 01 111iflL21OCC JUCLCU2G2 XbCLCq J1WLC wULi1rnJ LCACUflC bLoqrlcl2 01

bnLcpU2c CnbmIUI qJi2 obbonumiA 10 LflC IIJC IJWILC cUbrwJpCJ0M) uq () II 1C ULW p? 1JG oblmou 10 2II P111 U01

MJJCL IPQ C0U2U1 'B 12 UG911AC (2cc dflU1m0U (Qp)

cxbQcIcq bL2CU1 AUJ11C °1 UJUL1UUJ LAUflC btoqncl2 pAcxbccIcq IfIIflLG UJUL1UUJ LCAGU11C bLoqncl2 UIJq C9UC2obboiinuuA 10 I1JCLGU2 IJJC CUb1IUJ 210C1C IU fJ 1flLflL CCLC92C2

ULW W 1pC obiiou 10 bnLcp pill U01 2CJJ cUbIWJ 1p12bLcIulcq ILOW AGL bnLCpmu 01. 2GJJJU CUbi1IfJ () JJ IIJC01 WUL1UIfJ LCAUflC btoqncj2 01 CUbi1j 11 1JJC ULW MCLCcowbouGul2: (j) JJJG 1LW %AAi2 qc CXbGCICq bLG2cuI AUJflcxbLc22c 1P!2 cxbcc1q bLccul U2 211W 01 IJJLCG

bLoqnct2 01 cUbiWI 1WqL obl!wriJ pQpUAI0L Uuq cdmon (j)cUbmIUj cdnsJ2 qi cxbcciq bLc2cuj O WULIUU LAC1JflG

AUI11UII0U 01 flUil 01 CUbilUf JJJC UJUL1UUJ AUIBUI!OU 01KCUJJ lU1 tQ) i qcpicq 'J' IIJG WULU9I

cdnUlmou (o)cxbLc22moU 101. cQ) IU Cdfli0U (J4) 20jA2 IPC q1LU1IUIponuq9ü couqwonr II i 2ILIliproLMU1q 10 AU1A (JJUI 1JJ

nuq N 9U 'B ULG COU2WIU2 IPUI MIII C qcuinucq pA

%_8_>O (J)

Page 16: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

2nofflbnoD isbnuo8 9dt fIivIo .111

(dM11) bn (d,B01) 2no1ibno 'clBbnuod iuol 1T Ibw an (M) noinup ni 1 bns I\ a1n12no rH nimiib

£ v&f 2noiiup dT .jc( bnE 3( lo ts1sv di 3111 lo oiiBl di as ninR3b d iiolqx3 3W i&fi 31uizu112

iEth 1163351 . no mbnuod l3wol 3r11 oi no 'ci6bnuod iqqu i ttj\ iJ3rIl o 't i Isi!q63 lo i3ubolq 3un3v3i Isriigism 3111

lBni1Em 3111 no iiii iqqu ,di al 4* bnE i3gi1i i3wol 3(11

3d3 lo oiisI di ai '0 ioh13r1T .IEtiqs3 lo buboiq 3Ufl3V31 lo ruboiq 3U53V31 IBnigl6m 3111 no ai iii l3woI bns iqqu

.16i1q63

ni lo iorn cr11 d nvi ai ('0 lo n3i1 bns) Olo 3uIEv 311T

3w l3iIA . io .X no bn3q3b Ion a3ob mill noxiEup3

gniau bn 3tuqmo3 w 53111 0 lo 3u16v 3th nisldo

bns i 1uqmo3 w 11jniq .0 lo anoii3nul mlol-b3aolo 3(11 lo 1 risq bn .i ) 10 anoil3nul mlol-b32o13 flI2U

5011332 audi ni b31n3231q nouiuloa 3(11 mdi 231th3v xibrl3qqA isbnuod 3111 bnfl (Q) noiisup liiin31&flib 3111 23V102 I16uI3B

.(djil 1) bns (dM01) anoiiibnoo

0 io noIiuIo nIT .A.IH aia(lf1nfi mn3up3adua 3111 51 flOii1on 3111 '1i1qffIi2 ol l3blo nI

as 0 � i iol ( noitnu1 3th 3n113b w

(1) .

ai ii .1 � ( � 0 isrli auoivdo ai ii (FJ) noiisup3Io iiii1 a! IEI11 W0112 01 biswio1mdgisiia

(1) (=t> =(i>o=(o —

Page 17: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

i ( iirIi worI w 01xibnqqA 3d3 lo H i1q nI . 10 nojt3nuI nz2B13nk 1fB3inoionom

(13111w no thnqb ) okini di lo u1Ev IBmiiqo ,rIT

lo 3nq r1i oi IEuiqE3 lo nq 8c131uq 3rli lo oii d3 i Z lo u1Bv i1i

, I % nviD miii di d bB1 li3iiqE3

11d 'hi3i1qrni b3nihb

(VI).0 =

_L_( _L_ j upinu £ eiix 51rfi ,I � Yt ns io1 .1 noiiiaoqoig

noii3nul r1i bn ,I = (I ) .0 = ()\. i&li rbu k) b3ion3b .1 <k iol niE3i3ni Ii3i11 i (?t)t

.xibn3qqA f1i lo 0 ruI

(oitBl £ as b1qx3) b3w 3(11 fluli 3iB1e I noiii2oqoi s i igiii l3woI 3(11 bris iiii iqqu 3113 nwbd

(oi11 £ as b33iqx3) gb8w di lo noiinui nias313ni 'I13nJ lo 33i1q 3li rti bna 'jtS Iaiiqa3 lo 331q 32fl113111q r1J nwi3d

B 03V3 IBEII 3x1qmi wol1oi (13111W noiiioqo1 IBiiqB3 n IBflqB3 lo 233 bn 3asrI3luq di nw1d b3w nii i3woI bns I3qqu dt nwbd b3w IsiinE3c1u B uboiini

00= (i)' • noijaoqoi

.(f.H) bns (QH) asoiisup 11siq 33O! noiisup3 1di 1hv w xibn3qqA 3th io 1 jq I11

.C) lo 3111Ev IBmiiqo 3(11 3ii3i3B1Br1o (VI) 5Io113fl i3i1i owl 3111 lo 3U1Ev 3(11 gni2U3ib nI voiq 01 31di2oq ion ob Ii riguorlilA" e*mm3i (88Q1)

lE3n3mun noiiu1o li3flt lo anupinu 3(11 11s3it'!finfi 1i lo inioq gninE1 di 01 3v!iin32 lIE lB ion 31B 1ub33o1q iuO ".upinu bbni i noiiulo2 3(11 iBth gnhi3ggiJ flOiiBi3it

3(11 lo ofli 3111 t) lo 3n3upinu 3(11 voiq I noiii2oqol mIo1-bol3 31B al3ggfli 3111 lEnt won1 3W 13iE1 boB 213ggFI1

as ,3uRinu 311$ 13ggr I di i&11 3i1qmi nl3illw t) lo noi13nu1 .sloti3H d b3iub3lno3

Page 18: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

di lo U tn3I ru .1 = Z) 3io1rIT .1 = liufi mu22A •ioo1q (ôI.U noiisup3 ) 0 = o....Q(1,1)o\. If$rh nwo 21 ii xibn3qqA

rli ,iohi,dT .(8.U noiup ) 0 < (1j)\. Ifiuli bits ni 1.0 noiisup3) m3lo3fii soibitul n3iIqmi di 10 noiis3itqqs

.00= (i)' srb wok (xibnqqA r1i noiii2oqoi'1 12o3 noit3s2nEli £ 25 1?t gniiiqiiruI

rli nwbd 3nsi2ib (3hbmog) di lo viisvnb 3d1 Isifi

2i 1203 n011352051i rii 01 i3q251 diiw ii1 iwoI bits iqqu •wIimi2 A .J2o3 noii3S2nSli Oi3 Is btsu1svo n3ulw 3iiniIni

lo bbom s iii (0 .q ,Q8QI) iixiU d brioqi 02k 21 gnibmi .iix bits '(Iin

1bna19ghT 9tlT .H.ffl 2ini &Ii lo oti r1i O iol bvIo2 vsi1 w isdi wo'1

ininvno3 i2om 2111 .23u15v Isubivibni 113111 3iuqmo3 (183 w Isniisin 3111 nO 2I X11 lo 2m131 Iii 213I11 3111 2231X3 01

(15 23U21Uq miii 311T 'I\ lsJiqs3 lo iouboiq 3Ufl33i i3uboiq unvi 1snimm 3111 aIn3v3iq isdi 3iIoq in3mi23vrli

moil bits c(k 13i1i l3wol r1i wobd ni1kl moil kiiqs lb di 10 noiisin31q dT

. 1S(\ igiii iqqu 3113 3vods gni2n

(.)'P noibnul 3111 gniniisb d b3uiilqmi2 21 213iI (81) . 'ç— = '+1._i

ai)ki —1) ((11)XTh3

0< () bns 0 < (1) - I 0 <' < 0 <?+i isdi I1s$I 8 21 (i)'P isrli 2k3v51 (81) noilsupo lb n01333q2fli isdi 02

..1o noii3nul gnt2s3133b 'Ii3ii12 iol u1sv i3i1i 3111 xibn3qqA 3rIi lb 1 j18q ni b3iuil3v 2A

315 tsiiqs3 lb i3ubolq 3Ufl3V31 Isitigism 3111

(sQl)

(dQI) c('-;:)'1' =

14

Page 19: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

r1i b u1Ev ggiii di lo oilEl di i 'O i&ii vidO niwolloI odT .Itiq 1o bubrnq unvi tEnigurn

31s bns fid31uq rIi lo oiii rIi 1 Ii if$rli work noiiioqo1q 'O ndi no nI3rIi iiirg i ,rniil di d b3E1 IfiiqB3 lo

5 nfirli 1IE1 i .1 <? ii iiIupni irii diiw , ('-)'i'

= •€ noilkoqoi'I

()q' ?t

,di d (d1) noi1tup 10 bi rI3 3biviU •i001q niido ol (EQI) noitsup lo ,bi nibnoqr1o3

(t_)qj (')w c 1<n,rft,1<Yt1I.k =' =-—= ()q 1c:)q'

()'P < (1t)P bn io1irIT .(1 noiiioqoi)

.i ni nia13b tioiii i (P uE3d

1 bus A inanoD 3dT .D.III bni A gnuiuqmo3 d noitulo2 wo i1qfflo3 won n

(I163ih33q bns ,tb lo anoii3ntñ m1o1-bo13 gniu X

d nvig 1s X bru A

(O)

bni

(dOs) ,

3'((( — = — =

wrIw

vijfnwitB owi 1n3iq (BO) floiiStJp3 113th iioM owl iniq (dOs) noiiBup3 bnB

, A iol noi iqx intEvwp

lo wthi dguortilA . iol noi2251qx int13viup vii13n11I13

ufi3d inIEviup 5113 A iol noi51qx owl IT1 i1i ii1w = =

ii1Eup bno di bnB aioil wo11o1 (iit13up iifl

Page 20: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

om ni oqiuq mo 'fl32 111w 2n012251qx3 in3IEvxup3 3111

13(110 3113 10 3no V noii ni b3nifnr!x3 232E3 1Ei33q2 lii 232B3 h1uoiiisq 3d 01 iuo 2rnui a3vitn1331s In3Isviup3 3111 lo

olni bni I\ iol noiiqx 3113 nh1uti12du2 .liñu mol 2no12231qx3 ln3liwiup3 niwo11o1 3111 2b13i (M) floi1up3 (

(s!) — + t + = ()

(d1) ')(('- -i) + + = (j

IaliqitD to toD iU 9dT VI

31di213v31 \t22311203 1o bboin 1B3i!3o3n b1bn112 3111 nI A3o12 biiq13 3(11 i2uibE 03 21 s3i1oq Ifimllqo 3113 1n3m12ovni

lo i3ubolq 3Ufl3V31 IBnigi&n 3(11 niEinim 01 12u0unu1n03

3!i2inIftn3l3b nI .1J11qB3 lo 1203 132U 3113 01 liwp3 11iq133

lo 1203 13211 3113 IB11I b3work (EÔQI) n02n3101 )1-1ow3mfiiI 'd fl3Vi 2! IBflqB3

() i_+1J If 32 10 32B1I311Jq 11113 mit? 3111 1131(1W 111 3311q 3111 21 )%t1 31311W

,12o3 123131ni (I) :aln3noqmo3 331(11 211(13203 13211 311T .Ifihiq 22o1 li11iq d1 () bits ;' n0iisisiq3b 1s3i2'ftq () ;'ci

jfliiqs3 lo iifIlJ 11 10 33nq 3111 III 3flhI33b 3111 (11kw b3isi3o2s 3203 13211 nsrn02113g101 3111 1flB12i103 2! )%c1i 321U03 10

.(%-+-i) Iqmi2 21

owl 3(11' .xibn3qqA 3(13 111 (V.3) noiisup3 moil 2woHoI

32111133(1 in3Isviup3 5111 mol 2no!2231qx3

— = — = —

bno332 3111 bns mcnl 2woIloI \1ifsup3 1211? 3111 313(1W

.xibrt3qqA 3111 11! (82) nOilsup3 inoil 2W01101 '1IIsup3

Page 21: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

I!I lo iq3rIo3 niinowiot rft bnix w fl0ii3 iiIi III iilidi21v1 lio3 lo as Isin Ifi ol !s11qs3 10 i203 12IJ bw i irit t&Ii o

• I < ?L ndW .iniaiinu l3bnu

s i ith !Biqs3 lo oi1q bn &I31uq r1i nwid io iu bni IstiqE3 lo aErknuq rft 101 tnsv3bl o3

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Page 22: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

\{ l}— •

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() •'i = iioI (()"- = =

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(ô) • =

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25 1203 13211 21111 3n113b 3W •Isliqs3

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Page 23: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

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21 !sliqs3 n!1b2

(8) , = unvi Isnigism th iof u1sv igiii iwo1 ili will bnIl

21 IEliqB3 10 l3ubolq

(Q) = i1I35i5fl3 01 2U wo1113 p bns 1o3 iu owl silT

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Page 24: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

IEmiiqo lo noiiBi113s1Erb ith wof! woiI w floii3 ifIi 'iitidi13v31ii lo 1si3q2 di 03 3iIqq oIB inmivni

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, I = . = is (i)'P noii3nul rIi isu!sv 03 (a I)

(°) }

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03 1sup3 a'swIs Isiiqs3 3152 3111 paso aidi nI .ln3miavni 3Idial3v5rli i3bianoo 1x314

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Z) bnsoo = 23mo33d [()'P (O)'P] Isvi3ini 3ffT •(

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Page 25: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

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[(+ 2)(J— \ co] 4o(IcG tp uo bnLcp2G2 ocbiwj!UICLM(J [,h(e)' PCCOWC2

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Page 26: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

i&Ii i1 r11 bns (oO) nox1up noiii2oqol4l nX2U •001q

(o)w ('-)q' 3w nisib \1ion12 21 ()W ii=:;> (i' =i

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, I noi3i2oqo1 ol gniblo33A

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tsmilqo 3111 lO noiiuloa stsmixoiqqs 06 1n3231q 3 0011332 21111

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, I = 0 = ?k inioq 3111 bnuois (0%)t 1o

2bI3i\ O13 01

Page 27: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

(1) (1—

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+ (1— o)(I1)\. + (I

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(1 ) noiiEhJp lo bi2 bni! idgii di no iA3sid lii ( I

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()

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.'i-13qo1q idu3 (1I133oI 11311m12

Page 28: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

d bnE A3o12 IBIiqao f1l lii gnsrio ivr ol 'll2o3 i ii ns Laivi bu2 lo n3upi1 btqx di gni2s5l3ni

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ns lo noiizsil 13115m2 £ iiuIi nsm ? ni 3sm3ni nA .v iuJu1 nhl Is niEmi 11kw bo1 InnqS3 3111 iil 3gn&13 UIOTIU3

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3111 itj lo in3bn3q3bni a' ) wilT .i's ol bsisqmo3 l3blo .1 = ? lo boothodrIi3rl

Page 29: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

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Page 30: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

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tV cdn2 ,1()\w JJJC 1,9C( (P1'6 bbCI2 o pic wncpcdnlq2 }(q1Y uq pc fl2CL Co LcjClu( 1,01. 2CqiU cubii11.1 qJJ2 C2C (pG II2CL C02( LCJCAU( 1,01. bnLcpiu c9biJ cfl

UU (jIG oqici. btwc(cL A1UG2 mG (jIG 2WG U2 Hi

UOUIIJiGq (0 OUG (JJC AØIIIC 01, (jIG jC bucc 01, c9bUJ 12 =

JU LirILC J (JIG /JflC 01, (jIG bntcpc bucc 01, cUbi(U1

B

00

o.o004

0080•1

0•1

ff14L(1LG J

JO

_—,__ cr9bbiox

• C• cfl9bbkox

• Cn

Page 31: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

ooq di 20(11 bOB ) o viii2nni 1viisIi (1))W

ao1th '(13213vb6 ion 2ob 0 ioI noiismixolqqs di lo iiIup .12o3 iu cfi lo 2noiismixolqqs th

tilidii9I9H II2oD to 9flsi1ini 9vitdinauQ 9dT .IIV

di ioi iggiii c1i is (131(1w) 1Biiq lo 21203 iu 311T

Ji1idi21'1 'fieo3 ibrw (Iaiiqi33 lo i3ubolq unvi 1Bfli1I3m di ni 21203 iu nibnoqr1o3 di nwicI jEibm1ni O1B

iuasm oT .1ilidi2iv1 22liao3 bns 'ii1idi21v5r1i lo as is iitidi2-Iv1 fi2o3 ibnu 21203 iu r1i rhirlw 01 inix r1i

ibnu io iilidi213v5I Ii2o3 ibnu 2of1J 01 2oI3 20 (0)k boo (O)j' 2011s1 iI1 nib 1i1idi21v5ni

= (o)x ()'i'—(i)'i'

(d&) (i)—)' _____ (i)'v—(o)'t' —

ibnu io iu £ lo u1sv (1j 21onb (A) xflmu31i3 iriw 21 (i)M' uooH .V noiia 01 as iiIidi213v5ni 1Iqmo3 I (0)k 0 toth 2wOIIol Ii I 0 bus . ni nias5ib '1j3n12

.J = I iol 0 < (0)'% bno

nibaod rIi as '1iIidi2iv51 3Iiao3 lo as cr11 gniisiT lithqB3 fliast13Iuq iol insv3bl 21203 iou r1i no io1h f1i ,2E3 ibnu 0 < — i boo 'iiIidi2ivrIi ibnu 0 < — 21

ni 2Sr3flt r11 21 (O)j'k noitsñ r1i udT .ii1idi21v '(112o3

asioni dt 01 viiobx tiIidi21v31 112oo 01 ub 1203 12U di r1i 21 (0)fk noiioñ rI1 hsIimi .ii1idieiviii ol ub ot ub IBiiqo3 gniIIa iol 1novIi 1203 1IJ di 01 2S33b 01 ub asi3b r11 ot 3vi10131 iiIidi2i3v31 <1i2o3

1i3i1i2 510 (0)% boo (0)k 51UB3fl .iiIidi21nvsrxi

no toni ,% ni niass13ni 1i3i112 21 r!3i(1w 0 ni gnias513ni 2u1ov iin1i nI300Iqqo 01 21203 i2U fI1 251003 ? ni 510513n1

.'ii1idi21v5ni ibnu

Page 32: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

.1 -

OR

en(e)

Er(c)

08

cowbniq nuqc ipc nwbiou ocoQ LCACI2Ip!J11XflIJqcL 1C nwbiiou oi, cowbj picALpIJJrA pu 10 1jJ0ijnc o pc fl2 cora Lc cioci o pc ijnc cowbnq

woq Mqc pucu ip bnLcp uq buc itJcluG LiMi ('() =oi = oo) 1P GAGU

qiuc oiiq ip ijn 19 monq nuqcLbLic o cbi1 jJG UGL C0212 C IJJOLG jrnu PR ° IIJGJuwucG 'up WGLG iiqc pqcu Ipc bnLcp wq 2JG

L!JJG Jul UJGU1 0L LGAG2ipIG iUIGWGU1 LOLAJflC 0 IJJG /tGqG 41JG fl?CL C012 LG IJJRC)J CJ0GL 0 1IJ0G 0LLCI0U 0 1JC bnLcpc bLIcc MOIJCG P1 ccGb1 0L IIU?/tGU bnLcplr uq jQ bLic oj cubisi cbLc22cq 9

q2bJA i - Mpicp cdnj (\ - 1P /tqcunwuc xrnijb iuI.oqncGq iii cuou j jp 0U0U1

EInLG 5 bLGu12 o ij'(c) uq j\(c) jOL fG

00

0•5

ff4

Page 33: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

*u1m9$I nthubnoD .IIIV

di noinvido wciriA nw iuiiqb lo inioq iuO di io1 Jo3 B n 1no ud 1diivi (11n1nnn i JnmIavni lo IBbq rIi nimnx 03 ob wonA ,iiIqmi2 10 Is

nrI inrft iuiiniiI n gninwnqa tn3m1vni Idii3vni bnu irtrn3avni tnmiiqo uoda idgini 1o iiinv n b3ubo1q

&fi b3nimBx and 1u3n13ii1 iI1nma A .3nintinu Ismilqo inth iluani d1 diiw 3ilidiav,i tiao3 lo a& .(o!toq 1ggi1i-owi s d bnianmfI3 a! an aiili iii inmiavni

1o gnibnn1aibnu di 03 anoitudh3no3 uft aninino iqnq iuO 13ao3 lo 3naiq rt1 ni ioiv&bd inmiavni Ininiiqo

Inmi3qo d3 o1 noifljloa 3thInnB tioiIqx3 ns (1) :3ilidiaivi 11n3nmkJn 03 mifthog!n iin1l n () ;rnIdoiq inm3avni

mdi noimsmixolqqn 1n3o n (E) bnn ;noiluloa aidi 3uqmoD auoiisv lo a3o1h rIl lo wniv 3n1nqannii n abivo1q

.ainggni di lo au1nv d1 no ainlm&mq ni iilidiavi I1ao3 lo mIdoiq di niv1oa 01 noitibbn nI

iol noiiqi13a1q n 213110 l3qnq 1110 *iow3ms11 )i1m3mn1Eq n moil mirimqa 1iin3 3di aaaqmon mdi lfl3Inl23vni Iismiiqo aidT .Qilidi213v3ni 3i3lqmo3 ol ii1idia13v31 aa3Ilao3

a'noan3glot lo noian3lx3 Inwisn n no b3asct ai norlqrI3a3lq .iniEtl33nu lo an 3(11 01 tniiq& 1o Iaoo iau di lo noiiinihb

iol inEv3bl 32o3 iau di 31n1u31n3 bnn 3n1bb 3W gnilba iol lnsv3bl laos iau d1 •p bns Jsliqn3 nianf1oiuq

Inmi1qo 101 noilqn3a3lq 3111 anox1inI13b adl niaU .lsliq&

as Isliqso 11a bnn 3asd31u :b3lsla 1qmia ai 1n3mlavni 1s1iqs lo l3ubolq unvi Isnigism 3(11 inviq ol b3bnn

lo as 3th It! Invi,ini baoID 3113 gnivs1 moil 3Ini2 311i 01 a3aqslIo3 Esvl3ln! bao! dl 1i1idiaiv,i 223132o3

lo l3ubolq 3Ufl3V31 Isniism 3(11 gninismnism ;p = p lnioq Isnigisrn 3r11 mdl 251111P31 Isvi3lni 31s13n3g3b idi ni 1sliqs

3111 iliiw b3inup3 Iauounuino3 al Ls1iqs lo l3ubolq 311fl3V31

ln3m1a3vni 31di213v3Tn lo 325Z) di nI .lao 13211 nsinoan31ot 2325Z 3111 101 O13 21 Invinlni aidi lo bnuod l3woI 3(11

Isniginm 3dm 313(1w) 311115131i1 'iilidia13v311i di ni baauaib (3vils3n 3d 1diaaoq 1onns 1811q53 lo lxIbolq 311fl3V31

'(mo '(d b3si1313515113 '(bl3Iqmo3 3d ns ln3mla3vni Inmilqo jnvl3ini aidi lo bnuod qqu r1i

Page 34: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

srni iii 1nmlvni LEmiiqo iol noilqn31q rfJ gnil2fi3 \(,I tbbbb E a)1&i 2i1EflE 1UO JS1iq3 lo 1a03 u f1l lo

gniqmon di i3fi1 flI .3vit3q13q I3iIZ0fl 1diivrü r1l AEm jnrnjvni krniiqo iol noiiqh321q i Ii nEfli ls3iEI3on iom mIdoiq 1nmle.vni

2ith 2fl05I owl ioI .iuls$ilit sii1idiivrii fi ni blniq iifiti lnm1qmo3 £ as bbnlni i vilq1q 1fiMas13on

rIl 10 asoiiudilino3 loEfn rIi 01 n11ff3 s iulsiiiI 1iIidi1v5r1i 3d1 ,iii1 .51u1E1liI ii1xdi213v3r1i

b3isliIi3cl 113d1 2upinrIal bns ifIi2ni to bulilfum s bivoiq niasqmo3n iom rft lo noiiuIo bnB lnmqobvb dl

3r13 3nridu 3imono lo 13itBm £ as ,bno3 .bbom oi isqqs 1utfi1liI iitidi1v8r1i di d bisi 2noils31bino3

3di JIV noil3a ni b3work w th .lnEtloqmi 'bviisiilniup d noii&nixo1qq iob bivoiq ti1idiiv,rii lo noiiqmuas

noiiqmu22E Eanoiinvno3 rh 2ob nl3di toiv&bd inmlvni ol io noiloB2n1i th ndw nv iiIidi21v1 Ilo 1o 1s bnE asrIQ1uq f!l nwid 3n1Thb rfi ifliw blsioas

.tIsrn2 'iv i IsiiqBo lo ilq

o

Page 35: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

xibn3qqA (fi) noi)1wp9 iii 0= (i) 10 iooi nivIovni 9iJitn9bI .A

3iislbsup lo iooi ili io stumio1 bmbnBJ ff1 nistqqA fifflido w jIoiiup3

(?+)+ i!_ 4+!_ j (E.I.A) 0< =

(?+),+ (T4_ )_ (d.f.A) 0> =

(?+i) (.A)

— =

(.A)

iIqmi (€.A) noi1up3

(I..A)

bbi (.A) noiiBup 'd (l.A) noi1up gnibiviU

(.A)

( lo th9qoI .8 di 10 rlBq idT .0 <. iol bni1b i (i) noii3nlñ ifT

bns 0 < io1 ania13ni '1i3ni2 i ( il3rIi wod xibnqqA rfi noitibbt nI .1ini1 fin in (1)' bnn ,(1)"

mdi vidO .biuqrno3 w (1) bnn (1 1o 2IJlBv

(1.8) = ( '_i—I

Page 36: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

iiiwi bns O<ç—< nflG s (Lfl) noiisup

(.H) i—I

isili (.fl) noi1sup moi1 bisibmmi awollol ii

b ioisrnmonth bns ioismun Iqii1um (O isfu3!s3 oT nisido 01 i d (.H) noiisup

(4.H) 1— i

isth (I.a) noiisup mofi bisibmrni awollol ii (.H)

01 bn Iliw w , i = is a,viisviib au bns ( isuIsv oT

3111 lo 3sQ 1i ni 'Ib3usq31) 31u51 aIsuiqoH'J 1qqs .(a3viisvil3b

mill worla 11kw w bns (1) bns (1) 3isuIsv3 Iliw w 313H

nokmntñ s l3biano3 w laiR .3iiniI diod ois (1)" bns (1)'

.3Idsiin3i1tib 13uinitni is (ft bits (.)t 51311w (.) \ 01 133qa51 illiw notI3nul airli lo 3vijitvrI3b 3dT

bits oi3dw ___ (.)u (3)(X = (3)IA1I .insiano3 nit 3d 3 i&I i&I .(3) \3iiiqrno3 ol b3au 3d iaum 31u$I alsiiqollJ n3111 .0 =

(i)(X bns ()V o a3viisvil3b Hit 3111 3d (i)(O(X bos (i)(OV

113111w iol \. lo 3uIsv muminim 3di 3d \. 131 bruit .13vii33qa31 ()(!t.)v mu b3bivolq m Ion ai (3)(O(X o (3)(OA

.ini1 ai (3) '\ ,oi 01 !sup3 ion ai (3)("kX bns 3iinfl ai bruit (i)\ lo a3viisvil3b -l3blo 13i1id ioI b33n 3f11 gnhusqi3!inA

,noki3njñ rl3s to a3viisvrt3b mrIi iaifl 3111 3151U31it3 3W (i)ü .i in3mugm 3f11 gruiaa3lqqua

Page 37: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

gccjiu rpqjuiiIou o ) iii cIniou (w)'= O;(1) +IJw() +Q\(Q) +JQ() +\q(2)

D()— + + +

— + + +

=OL + lO\)+

= +8+\)vj%=

= +

- Il)c\() — — — —

= + + + 38'(Q)L + I

= + + + I(— — I — s) —

= + + + — — — —

V) = + + — — —

= + + %%%L — — —

= + — —

= U\ + — —

= '—'L

Page 38: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

34

______ (u"_&) o.(c"—)(i)= c(—3)=

(a"—

(—&)=

>0(Bô)I�n!c' uq fl2iU cdrnuiou (v) iic opriuci'(i) = c' (i)= 0' uq ci'(i)= 3i bbjAiu F,Hob!WJ,

OPLA ip u'(j) =u'(j) = 0u(i)=i'()ci' () () = [ci0 (L)]' iuq OCLAQ

DQUUC 1'(iE °()=u° ()ci°()—°()ci° () suq

ba2 gcUA(iAC O L)

o(j) = t(i)= o' uq 0(j) = =

o (i)='° (i)ci° (i)—'° (i)ci° (i)=—) io'O(.) [ci0()] JJJLG1OLC O(j) = = o uq

DUU uq

o<(i)== <I (w8)

jpcLoLc' bbjiciou o r,Hob1, i�nic )icjqMoiP(1)=ciO(I)= o' °(T)='uqciO(J)=

=jq ci(') (J) = (—i)_,I[.1(+.) (Bx)

ci0() cjncq =

EOL 9IJA boiiic iucL ' 1 p qcLiAfiAc o uO(-i) uq

MGLG O(•L)EJ__q uqci°()J— (WQ)

Page 39: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

10 LWIUC U , CL) oi i j uocj1c pic jLqA 0MU (ccJnirou (w&) pt , (1) > o

CL)= O(0)(J)) >0 jpcioi.(i) g)(L)

= I( )(1))(I)' )(J)c)(J)) iuq

ipøi CL)&CL)

OPLAC 1JJ9

DGUU &(L)CL) uq CL)E o( 9uq 0pcLAcJJJiLg CUAPA Ot

0g) = o()(J)) = .o(o4)(J)) >o=1( (i) l)(J)—U(I ,)(I)) uq

M0 JJ \A()(J) = Oe)(J)= =

(L) uq= c)(J)JJJLGI.0LC (i) —

U(,,)(J) ! LJU! DLIUC

(I) =(u(i)1

(i) — ' (T)c)(1)) uq '()(1)

()(1) _((I)'_0\013—

fp% OPLWDUU CL) y1CL) uq '\ CL) 01 () uq opcuc

guAiAc o Ly

= (i) =

\k()(i) =3()()1 (i) — ' (J)c)(J)) uq

y,1opiiiDUU vCL) i'N— &()q') uq

Page 40: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

(c &'\ .+2ru"3qGLi/iou

jp iojjoiiu jcwurn iiijj pcjb lu owc npcdncuc v nv'i r'"

(BJ).(T)> oY

()> 1'cs) JJJLCIOL (2iuc LrqA JJOMUMCL LG iucdnujii7 oJJoli ow > > ipcp iwb1ic

= )— >0 OL j (BT I)bmwcL \ dnj o ouQ) LMLJ cdnjou (wio)

fiu quwou o ô() iu j poi (cu rpc>y dcqt> 0 ° x) > JOL > 0 PIpIcp iwb1i ()>0

tOL >0 MPJCP jwbjic ()>0 ioi. > O (P) ft L J0 oipu t()=-i + 1' "()>ot, ; ju +(iu — i); lu = (jui; 50 tOL >

D!ULGU!U t) Acjq)(tu—i);

___ — ________ —

hL00t op'- () = — btJul

(i)\> 10L(p)JWCU %()>OtOL jY> uq>• i

jcuJw.CU CUJJ1UG qJC 2jIJ O j) niu pc ojjoiiiu

= ____ —(wJo)

ip 'A0() cu pc LMUUU 92IPG WG u jO() pcun rjO() > QPLAC

Page 41: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

(D) )ijqfliu 'vww 10 LCMLUQ lpc Lip puq 2iq oi drnl1iou

1 & 1= ("s—

— —(D

Q =j iii cdnuiou (DI) XiIq

(D1)

gccj quuuou oI\(Q) 'U cdniou (j):0\('.fl) ug (oo)11 b016W6 oL((3e)

&' (x x\ .+9 (C4)

tp L!p1 puq aJqc o drniou (ci) ?1qn!u cdnjou (y) o opwiu cdrri/JGuf bLciou 0L

'T - -) (c)

couu GUJJ OU 1JC LIJJ1 puq 2!qG 0 d(W1ioU (C 3)

cxv" (—-- + J)— + T) = -.

—— (cs)

puq ojdntou (ci) iiqfl!U dfl1I0U (ag) 10 npi1nicoL (j) ou pc

1T1)(T+TJ __1)(c_) (ci)

bL00L J,4O 1J1

Page 42: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

LOJ cdniou (DJ) iic 'U

(Do)

EIfl1!U quA1iAc = = j uq nu r'cww9(Di)

("=—÷ )-i--—TJ>°

bI4!IIA qqjcLcu(iUu cdn!ou (D j) mip Lcbcc1 10CtCflI1!OU O jGUAJAC2 O

iw ite)== _( Jiiw e.

=(Dx)

e — oouq opiiu

(DQ)=

I_eeT [(c -iXi- --( - c)(i-)--(e -eccxbLciou XU pLCJC pA co opiu

MX1 qwqc ccp 1LW 111 PLCJCC( pA wnjiibjA ip

(D)=-)

MOM UJIIIIIbIA cdr,UjjoIJ (Dt) pA \Q 10 0P11U

(D4)=

[(i-eXe -)cdng,ou (j) o opu

— c )(e — c )uqn pc qQIjuwou o (c) 'ujo nij J! wnIlJbJA cdnUliou (D1) pA

>0 (D1)

Page 43: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

= — )(iç_ )e •(e)J'L(\'e) (DT)

D!ULGU1111 dflpOU (D13) 'uLcbc1 ° o

(DJQ):pi e(J) ! UU!IC qJ

jt iojjoii xj.ow cdrnwou (D13) uq (D1) uq fC

(Duc)(DJP)(DJ)

ec(WQ)(c —i)c_ _(cy.& —i)e_3 jCLGIOLvc) o1 —e1 uq

D!LCU!!U (ic) MIJJ LCbCC o ,,opiu

——

— (Di't)c

\e(Q)4e (ct(\c) (Did)o 1Pf

—+ + (e)(c —e)= —c±c —(c —c)=oOPLA

(DJ)+ e)(e —)]+

— _____

2iwb1iQiu dniiou (D1 I) AJq

(DJ1)

°(e)—)eMup LbCC o c o opwtu

jo couibru bn.iijX qiji.curnr cdniou (D1)

(mo)

Page 44: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

,to

eeej • _____\ 1 Jj (D)fl2!U qic cXbLGiOU oi. ,(j) iu cdnjiou () MC

\eee(J.J)=) (j)(x'_) (D)0P1!U(D1pc) iuq pc 1P e ,(j) uq w.c juJc 10

1Jn9c cdniou (D) = e = i n2!u ccJn1iOIJ

(Dt)=—) We)+ (o(\cQ)+

D!u.cLcu1!1!u cdnøiou (DJ) M11 Lcthccl io Aicq(&' &

(D3)CJfllJU qJc LCflJ1 i = = j Arnq

DcLcuL1!u cdniiou (D j) MI1P Lcbcc( 10 niq

(D5)E1In1!U cdnuiou (D31) = = Aicjq

(&, c"\(D1)

cdniou (Do) iuio cdn1!0u (DJo) Aicq((we) — TJ (D50)

y )icjqD!CLcU11U (ic) iu cdn1iou (y 14) /11p Lcbcq o

\CWe)=— (e)'(We) (D1o)

cdnou (ix i ) M4IJJ LCthCCI 10 A1cJq2

(D18)0p1iU(1yjp) uq rpc C1 qrnr (j)uq .(i) LC P0IP UU11C MC

EAIn1!J cdniiou (D LX) 91 = = niu cdn91iou

Page 45: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

41

tIJ1OPLA LOW Ipc qcijuwou O \(We) 'U cdniou (D!)

bL1 pø \(we) < p MJJU (WQ) =p ug >J

+9)(—J)3 (—i) (D31)

(Do) Iq2np2irIiU n!ou2 (ryo) uq (DQ) 'uro dnjou

(— _Q

—(Do)

ucIpfOLpOOq o% = Q = 20 LJJi

uju puq 2iqQ o GdnJou (D3o) '-uciipiA urnjj iiiJJJG LW2 iUA0jAiU (c-j) uq (Q-j) iii ou

—(ii)(e—i)(D5o)

.(Wc) = o u cdn1ou (D8) ?1q

+{r' (i i)(s— i)(c —1)3 + —

(ri)(— i) + i)(c —

(D8)20 1JJ

= (r i) J) EOOP2LJ IIJi

(i i)(— i) + —i)+ (ii)( — — + —

+.{-"(r)(' — i) +(ii)(— i)(e — i)+(ii)(e— 1)3]

(ii)+"(ri)(' — i)+(iiX— i)(D)

()onuqç=Q= I !2

\f piLq-oLqL J)J0L2 2L!Q2 bbLox!wj,ou oj cdnuiouybbLoxJw1iou 0 \(W) tonuq = =

Page 46: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

45

pA AicjqAqiu pc Uf1UJCi9OL 9uq qGUOUJIIrnLOL OICdflWOU ()

— —

( — — (Ei)pA cY - to opwiu

njiibjA ipc UflWGLjOLuq qcuowiuoL o dn9uou (Es)

('_)) (E.5)

i— U)=('—)&'— o ip cdniou (E1) Pcow

OP2GLAG LOW cdriiou (we) 'vi

(I—

(E 1)

ip qcijuiiou o1,h(') 'U Qdniou (Jg)

E bLOI4! Ot1hCI)

<0 r (D)nq (D1) ii

,(cj) > 0 uq > o u ojjoi pow cdn9iIou (Di4)

>0 oi>j (D4)

LCUI1 ipi (c) > 0 OL o qrnr cdn!ou (D) iwbiicL!p pcuq iq ocdniou (D) ! bo,pA OL >J jO

Ø2LAC ILOW 'WW J fJflJI JJC QLUJ iu pucjcc ou jJe)- _______ 1

(D)o = 0 iuCQ j) = 0)

(Wc) Ju drnwou (D'14Y uq znwiu rp e5i (o UJoiquiu cIniou (DsY fl2JU pC qcuJiiou o

(rns)r 1

____ - _____ = - pu (Wo)=o

Page 47: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

- +c)c+(i-c))c (F Jo)

uq wrijitbjA IJJ UflWL0L uq qcuownrnot pA QO Opiudniou (Ex) uq (g) nuo Qdniou (Eo)

'e(e)+ -=

(Eo)OPLA ILOW GdnUiou (EQ) rp

(E.g)— —

— (e))=e

— — = —

uq

— —= =e)— —

iqQuic p2q ou qcjui1rou o i) w GdnTou (j)jp u XbL21OU IOL ,h(c1) M n pc 1oIJoMiu

() (EQ)

qijuiiou ojj uq Ju QdfloU2 (op) ro opwiuJCCJ ILOW GdIWi!OU (4) ())= \ 1% uq fl2

(E)fl!U Qdnuiou (yjJ M LIL!1c cdnjou ()

&1— —-+ —

—-J(' —

= (+ 2)(c - ))(cx -)\&) (E4)

Page 48: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

0piJIU(}) rn CdnJou (hi) ( (JJC nbbCl. fLIGL )c\ (0

ccuou o\ -cocc couWof cwo (xW

= — (e)—(i — = 0 (is)qqJui(iou o iuq lu cdniou (3oP) fO opriu

EAIflUC cX ()) u 1C IOMQL fL!CL )V uuq flC (JC

(E)= + e)) + — e)) )_

D!UCLCUffC CdnJ(iou (j) tiip IcbCcf (0 ) (0 OlI1Uco tx-ciouc \'O (\')

fl)=I) (E.4)

biuuA nC Cdflu(!OU (so) uq (laP)10 OpfiU

'4o)+ '(i— Q-))] (E1)(0 LCMUIC cdn9(i0u (h) 9

CCJ (jJ1 = uq IIC dnpou (Ex) uq (ag)

()= )e[ ÷ + — (Es)

EAIfl9(C cdniou ( j ) u qi nbbCL (LIGL )fl(O opiumruou o -bris coucwou ccn (')(C fp!Lq cdnuj!A OJJ0M L0W cdngjou (lou)

MPCLC IJJC ccouq CdnujiiX iojjot# pom cdnuiou (EQ) uuq

(1) [+ (c))]= = (El)

EAJfl1C cdnuiiou (lu) (G JOMCL (UCL )V (0 Opfu!U

o\ ooi-tcu wou ttqou (çcfE A614L1G4!0U O flJG OIflhiOU

Page 49: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

uq .+2> o• JJCICtOLC i tOJJOM iwwcqørcjA i.ow cdniouuc: c9 I: vrIu ipr \> I CC rpr'(> 0

I) uq OL ' = r (c ii)nuidncuc Oi rpc ioor o \(''Q)=o CbLcIA io '> i (CcC h'°°L O bLObO2!OU j j bioic CXI2ICIJCC uuq

) ): )w(e)=f—-=-—-=o (jj)ro oprwu

3npJrnj cdrijou(j) (jp) juro Cdnriou (jj)fh((3) i(e)

140M (12C cdrnmou2 (EQ) - () o itiu Cdflu(!OU (b ii)(E i J)

we) = [+ ' e)+%(J— we))]- Q4\+' + -opwIIJ

flC pc qCIuWOu2 O'4 wiq IU cdrnwou2 (oP) ro

(b Jo)

e) ='{i-e)-(i -Q))]_Q[%- c)e -(i -

OPCLAC 4LOW (jiG qGJIUijioU oi(içç) 'U Cdn(IOu (J) LP(c)= o

= —)—(i

— = 0 (ho)(h)E!UIJA RG Cdfl91OIJ (E) uq () O LCMLI(C Q&IUOU

= — — (i—

c} (b8)iuq rn Gdniou (op) ro opiwu

flG jiG = uq (1C jjJC qGjIfl(iOU2 OJ'4

(bx)= + e))_ +

Page 50: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

4Q

COUIIUflOfl2IA q1cLu111pJ A!C1112['WUJ11 uq rpc 11C1 1)3111 c) iu CdII11lioU (J) 12

!UCLWGU( 0 11CCflWflJ111C L022 1IJA21UJCU1 fl2iU 110,2K KK K

)+a )c—) ..'N4JCLC cy.!21pG

1�CC11II IPIJI ) \ v)' 20113111

if fl2GL CO2 O Cab!4I

JJJGLQIOLC' c,('6) > 0 0L'6> jIL0W Gdn11Iiou (D) w1 \('6'C)l0 < o OL '6> F

L0W Cdfl11IIOIJ (jyg) 1)3111 > 0' uq LGC11JJ

—(ei)

(Wc('6))=o 10 O11flU'tuc) criu%: bbjA qjc iuJbJici1 flUC1!0U 10

Ot0LQ> 1Ø10LQ>j

1P91 1'J) = 0 11IJq U0j 1)3111 &j') =(e —e )a, >= —

—— K"JE pow cdn11ou (rn?11)i c j(Dn) 1wbJ1c2 1)3111 '(j') p1J 1P obbo2i1 2!LJ 112

(i'C) <0 J0L C >1 KGC111I 111111 (e) >020 1)3111 GC11111110U

01PL 1P111J Q = J IU 1JC !U1LA111 [J'oo). 11 2IILIJCQ2 10 2[JOM 1)3111

C112Q II: V22flWG'6 = J jO 2)IOM £13111 1PL 11LQ U0 L00f2

1}JI.C 12 111 W021 01J L001 0I\('6'e) 0 !' 1p!2 iU1LA11J

('c) 12 11 C0U(lUflOfl2 4PUCL0JJ 0 C 011 IJJC JU1LAUJ

(Di) 1)3111 ('6'e)I'° <0 MIJCU'6> J' jJJGLG10LC' 2JUCCflut1cua: C11 I: V22flU3'6> F JCC11JJ L0W Cdfl11(i0U

= j 12 11 LOOl 04 IIJG dn1110U ( j ') = 0CØ2C jj: 22flWC '6 = F OP2Ct3C 1)3111 (i'i) = 0201)3111 C

0U LOOl ot('6'Q) = 0W (roo).

COLJI!UflOfl2 J1UC110U 0C OU IPG !U1C1.1111 [j'oo) IPGLQ 12111 J921

JJ" ('6' c) = —o° JJJGLCt0L' 21UCG '('e) 12 11(D) 113111\(WJ) >0 KC11J! L0UJ Cd1111110U (Dx) 1)3111

Page 51: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

ponuq 91G IJIJJtC

eioc OC2 uoi ,1nwb \fJO UOtC 1Pt \\y 2 UIC !1 tPCjC0IUL01 Jt tPC onuquC i 1UUUJ1C2IUJI O JC cbiw

(H) to optnunPt!tntG tp cxbtciou uq cdntjou (H) tuto cdnutiou

flC cdntiou (v4) to opwiu iu cxbLc!ou ot uq(w)

— i)— (i — —

nq (soP) LGbCc1iAcI) to opwiuflC tUG qcjuwou2 o W rnq B ' cfJnUou2 (j y (oY

(Ht)= i)+ ' — i)+ B(J

— — i)

CMrJflftiU tPC Gcouq qGL!A1IAC t ) = )V AjqD!1ICCUtt!U cdntiou (j) ttitcc Ltp LG2bGCI to ) uq

( cXv)(Ha)

DC1UG IJJC flGL cost o, csbwj LCJGAUt OL qiiuAC2tuJcU1 u2DR!UAGBGU1 t tJJC JOMCL ponugA

= = .. OI. = V[\ (w)9LC CLO 9 ) = )V uq ) = )fli GLO1 2UCC H tCLW tu cdriioii (H1) JuAoJAiu cUOIJCLO IJJG bioqnct ci ) CA9Jn1€ t tuG ponuqmic4')= ()= o ! UU!tG CACU MPCIJ !t

(jju) uq (j jp) wnt pojq tpcc LCdflILC tpu

i UOUSCLO f}JC pJp-coutctcouqltiou2 JIJ ccIntiouIPC ponuquc O tG L9UG O 1LJ9CjIOU MGLC

(In)cX)

Page 52: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

(FrT)jiujjA iiiu cdrniou (H ii) uo cdniou (H) lq

(WIT)— —

(12)—

—)&'

iwbjiiAiu cdn9I!ou (H Jo) Acq

(H Jo)

— _____________ — ('— — —}+ )+ — i)(i— e))— ).(b—i)(i— ))( =

I - + - e))+ —

nptc cdrncpou (jjg) pow Gdniou (H) io opm

(wo)

(—))(—))1 c ( c'\ 1(-- 9) =

['——-+---——-j('— )jch(c)OP2GLAC jLOWdnriou (Ef)

(we)

____________ (—',)('—t)=

i)— — i)— {i— X'"—

DAqJu Gdniou (we) pA cdniou (wi) A1cJq2

cX( )__ (Hx)

KGC1II 1LOW GdfliOU (b.J)

(we)= =

')- )e)(t -1)- (1 - c))(x-j)]

Page 53: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

bnuod iqgu di t inm1vnI (viiiaoq) iol lnEv3bl SiiqE3 lo O3 I2U 1fi nu13U

inrnivni (1.H)

) bn 1 iqi rhiw &iwi (d1) noiiBup nhiBitr11&t1iU

b1i = c i viflviib bno3 rIi ni3EuIEv

— — + (i —

) t. + (i —'ç)ç t% = ()" (I.H)

(zO) Q1) noiiip iii 1 bns ,X1o noiiinfl3b sf11 2U niido oJ 1viJqi (dOs) bru3

[0— —

1)'ç —(1— )(' —0_-'c)'c] = ()"

(! .H) bnE iol noiiqx fl6 nitdo o (.A) noii1wp U

noiup3 oini (1.H) noiiiup bnt noiiqx ith iuiiidu niiicio oi (n.H)

[1i —

)(( —

'b —(i —

.)( '-;:) —(i —)'c]' 'cXx = ' { =

(à1.H)

i&Ii (p1) noitEup moil IIE$I (VI.H)

______ _1 ' (-)q' —

2bI3i (Vi H) noirnup d (M.H) ffOiU3 8nibiviU

(i —

—0— —(i —) =

________________________________ —— ____________

(81 .H)

Page 54: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

iaili (4) noiifiup3 moi1 vidO

— = ( +) " (—)('--) (LH)

nui3ldo oi (1 .H) noiiBup moil (81 .H) noiifiup i3fihidu wo1

+((- _i)_ — r = ++ — (— n)(—) = —(+)

(O.H)

b13i (O.H) flOiiEUl3 gni'h1qrni

('-)'r' =('-)q' — + — = = —(+)

('i— x*c—) (\j) (1.H)

(C1.H) noiiup oini (I.H) noiiJup gniiutiidu 1h3ni1 2bIi

(.H)

Page 55: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

(DCCCWPL jyrnq ipc AV' o flJC }iLuJ',, UJGUCTJ COUOUJTC AiCMiuq?ce ,,II.LCALJPJQ IUAC2UJGIJI CbC!1A cpoIcc

LOCqiU (IAI JQ3)BGP9AOL, UJGIJCØTJ ECOUOW!G JAIM J9bGL2 ug1OLCUOU DI /A ,,Cb!WJ JjJGoI). uq ju,wui

(QcopL JJ) -gcouqiL!ou OflLUJ Ot COUOUJ1C DAU9UI!C 9IJ COIULO! JDflW2 CLUL 2flbGL couwc uq iii 0biwjiA

flUCGLIrnUA bL!UCi0U J,4j JUCCOU flUiAL2!ADP'! yAiUp uq {OI4 mqAcje IUA WJU flUGL

onwj o b°J!(!1 EcououJA (inu iog& o-wD!X! vAiUp ,,EUILA 9TJ EX DC!!0U flUGL fluccI4iIuA,

JAOI.J(iU bbL J40 J 'TflfI J4JJJG //914OU CpOOJ O IpC flUIAGL2JLA O bUU2AJAUD0C M°O joquA r' /AP! ccu OL iuuc jccLcpIMO I12ICJG JUGLC ic (ou NOA IV OIP" OUDIqo Uq BGLUL DRW ,HOTh L \fbfl4 c

(jootY -wVLCG IUA1WU, KCAiM o couoimcBGI-L°t Onicbb uq C9PIJCL0 IucAI2ipipO 9uq

o1 jcpuojoA jogg•hPD D I4fi0U ivwuq: JUAGWCU uq EwbJoAwcu flUCL fl1JCCL1!UA,

i.opc riibb ,vq1nwiur CO2 uq DAUWIC bICOL

C0mb9UA bb j-jH. Opu HJCJ fl4 //OJ (fY CPJCO: yjqiuc WPI!P!UIUA1WGIU,, !U A' CbWI uq QLOMf b1bI2 111 JJOUOIIL OVLLOM KGUUCP 1• 0biwj CbIWJ b0IICA NP II.LCACLPIC

KG4.GLGUC6

Page 56: Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility

1 (Jo) Qo-C0UflWbOU MT1J 1LU2C1IOU co2,, yuu o ybbiq2PtG 2E iiq HVf 2OUGL Ob1!Wi iuiu uq

TooJY iiio-iiw

JUAC4WCU1, 1onuJ1 O FCOUOIJJTC F!1L1n. (2cbcwpcLiuqAcJe JopQI. fiucciiuA uq