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8/2/2019 Optimizing Systems at District Scale Presentation
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Cole Roberts, PE, LEED AP 415.946.0287Brian Renehan, MBA 415.957.9445Bry Sarte, PE, LEED AP 415.677.7300
Clark Brockman (Moderator) - 503.445.7372
Optimizing Systems at District ScaleEcoDistrict ConferenceOctober 27, 2011
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(feel free to use, but please remember us)Copyright 2011 | Arup, Sherwood, Sera
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Overview of Session
Introductions & Goals for TodayEmergent Questions
Principles
Process
Tools (analytical optimization)
Business Case (financial & value optimization
Conclusion
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Goals for Today
1. Synergy vs Efficiency (acrosssystems &scales)2. Effective Process
3. Analytical Optimization
4. Finance & Risk Optimization
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5
Emergent Questions
When does it make sense to imagine systems at
District scalecreating in effect a network ofbuildings?
At what scale do select energy, water, and wastetechnologies make sense?
What are the implications of systems optimizing atdifferent scales?
What are the variables and tools that support
decisions about how and when to proceed?
What are the financial implications?
Are these the right questions?
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10 MILES
FRACTAL SCALEREGION
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10 MILES
FRACTAL SCALEREGION + WATERSHED
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FRACTAL SCALEREGION + WATERSHED + UGB (URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY)
10 MILES
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FRACTAL SCALEUGB+ CITY
10 MILES
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FRACTAL SCALECITY
1 MILE
10 MILES
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FRACTAL SCALECITY + DOWNTOWN
1 MILE
10 MILES
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FRACTAL SCALEDOWNTOWN
1/4 MILE
1 MILE
10 MILES
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FRACTAL SCALEDOWNTOWN
1/4 MILE
1 MILE
10 MILES
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FRACTAL SCALEECODISTRICT
1/4 MILE
1 MILE
10 MILES
1/8 MILE
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FRACTAL SCALEBLOCK
1/4 MILE
1 MILE
10 MILES
1/8 MILE
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FRACTAL SCALEBLOCK
200 FEET
1/4 MILE
1 MILE
10 MILES
1/8 MILE
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FRACTAL SCALEBUILDING
200 FEET
1/4 MILE
1 MILE
10 MILES
1/8 MILE
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FRACTAL SCALEBUILDING
100 FEET
200 FEET
1/4 MILE
1 MILE
10 MILES
1/8 MILE
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FRACTAL SCALEBUILDING
100 FEET
200 FEET
1/4 MILE
1 MILE
10 MILES
1/8 MILE
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FRACTAL SCALEBUILDING
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PRINCIPLES
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The Ecological ShedWhats the problem?
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The Ecological ShedWhats the problem?
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Yosemite National Park
Mariposa Grove of Giant Sequoias
Mariposa Grove of Giant Sequoias Yosemite, CA
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The Ecological ShedWatershed
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Eastshore State Park(Strawberry Creek Outfall)
Strawberry Creek Watershed
Strawberry CreekRestoration and
Bank Stabilization
UCB School of Law
UniversityBotanicalGardens
Lawrence BerkeleyNational Laboratory
UC Berkeley Berkeley, California
UCB Student CommunityCenter/Lower Sproul Plaza
Th E l i l Sh d
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The Ecological ShedEcological Footprint
Th E l i l Sh d
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The Ecological ShedEcological Footprint
Th E l i l Sh d
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The Ecological ShedEcological Systems
Th E l i l Sh d
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Water and Energy Linkages
The Ecological Shed
The Ecological Shed
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The Ecological ShedWater and Power
Th E l i l Sh d
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FoodshedThe Ecological Shed
San Jose
Fresno
Sacramento
Oakland
Chico
Modesto
Vallejo
Santa Rosa
Napa
SanFrancisco
Vacaville
Tracy
Merced
Gilroy
Salinas
Livermore
MantecaDavis
Madera
San Rafael
Santa Cruz
Woodland
Monterey
Yuba City
King City
Stockton
5
80
5
880
205
80
1
152
4
99
4
1
99
50
101
101
F R E S N OF R E S N O
B U T T EB U T T E
L A K EL A K E
M A D E R AM A D E R A
M O N T E R E YM O N T E R E Y
G L E N NG L E NN
M E N D O C I N OM E N D O C I N O
Y O L O Y O L O
S O NO MAS O NO MA
T E H A M AT E H A M A
T U O L U M N ET U O L U M N E
P L U M A SP L U M A S
NAP ANAP A
C O L U S AC O L U S A
P L A C E RP L A C E R
M A R I P O S AM A R I P O S A
E L D O R A D OE L D O R A D O
S T ANI S L AUSS T ANI S L AUS
Y UBA Y UBA
S A N B E N I T OS A N B E N I T O
S A N J O A Q U I NS A N J O A Q U I N
S O L A N OS O L ANO
S ANT A CL ARAS ANT A CL ARA
NE V ADANE V ADA
C A L A V E R A SC A L A V E R A S
M A R I NM A R I N
S UT T E RS UT T E R
A L A M E D AA L A M E D A
S A C R A M E N T OS A C R A M E N T O
A M A D O RA M A D O R
S I E RRAS I E RRA
CO NT RA CO S T AC O N T R A C O S T A
S AN MAT E OS AN MAT E O
S ANT A CRUZS A N T A C R U Z
M E R C E DM E R C E D
100 mile radius
50 mile radius 50 mile radius
100 mile radius
MontereyBay
P a c i f i c O c e a n
Brentwood
Data Source:Farmland Mapping& Monitoring Program 2004& 2006No FMMPdata available for Calaveras,Mendocino and Tuolumne counties
Developedlands
Prime, Unique,andFarmlandofStatewide Importance
Grazing Land and Farmlandof LocalImportance
Farm and Other Land Use, 2006
The San Francisco FoodshedThe San Francisco Foodshed
www.greeninfo.orgAugust 2008
Study Area
Th E l i l Sh d
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The Ecological ShedTransportation shed
Th E l i l Sh d
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The Ecological ShedTransportation shed
Th E l i l Sh d
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The Ecological ShedSewershed
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O i l S l
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Optimal Scales
O ti l S l
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Optimal Scales
Key Variables
O ti l S l ENERGY
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Optimal Scales - ENERGY
Key Variables
O ti l S l ENERGY
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Optimal Scales - ENERGY
Key Variables
O ti l S l ENERGY
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Optimal Scales - ENERGY
Key Variables
O ti l S l WASTE
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Optimal Scales - WASTE
Key Variables
O ti l S l WATER
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Optimal ScalesWATER
Key Variables
O ti l S l
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Optimal Scales
E t bli h E d O ti i M i i
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Establish, Expand, Optimize, MaximizeWATER
Establish Expand Optimize Maximize
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Establish, Expand, Optimize, MaximizeWATER
Establish Expand Optimize Maximize
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Establish, Expand, Optimize, MaximizeENERGY
Establish Expand Optimize Maximize
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Establish, Expand, Optimize, MaximizeWASTE
Establish Expand Optimize Maximize
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Establish, Expand, Optimize, MaximizeCARBON
Comprehensive Prioritized STRATEGY
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1. LoadReduction
2. PassiveStrategies
3. EfficientSystems
4. EnergyRecovery
5.Renewables
6. Offsets
Comprehensive Prioritized STRATEGY
St f d U i it O ti i ti
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Stanford University Optimization
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Changing in PhasesSource: Stanford University
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Source: Stanford University
Draft Energy & Climate Plan (April 2009)
Energy and ClimateSolution Wedges
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Acknowledge changes in the energy and economic efficiency of cogeneration; Moving towards Regeneration
via heat recovery Cost savings of $639 million over business-as-usual; Reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions of 80% below 2000 baseline levels by 2050; Total campus water savings of 15%
S Effi i
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Synergy vs Efficiency
WATER
ENERGY
TRANSPORT
CARBON
SOCIETY
ECONOMY
MATERIAL
WASTE
LANDSCAPE
WEATHER
HUMAN
COMFORT
RATINGSYSTEMS
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PROCESS
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Land Use
Buildings
Finance &Procurement
District
Systems
Eff ti P
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Effective ProcessLand Use Choices
Building Design & Retrofit
District Systems
Eff ti P
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partneringmeetings
Builders
Operators
Agencies
Owners
TechnologyAnalysis
(OptionsShortlist)
B
value & contextdiscussion
Vision
Focus Areas
Value Criteriaand KPIs
ConceptModeling ofBuildings &
District
A
Plant Concept
FinancialConcept
Site Walk
City Meetings
designworkshop
Procure, Build,Operate
D
Financial/RiskAnalysis
(OptionsShortlist)
C
Effective ProcessLand Use Choices
Building Design & Retrofit
review
Review ExistingInformation(Function &Financial)
District Systems
Workshop Discussions
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63 63
p
Prioritization
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64 64
Prioritization
Prioritization
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Prioritization
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5. Central Plant + Tri-Gen | System Diagram
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Electric Grid
Gas Mains Tri-GenerationPlant
Elec Eff:
35-40%
Thermal
Eff: ~40%
Gas Boilers
Eff: 80%
Absorption Chillers
COP: 1.2
Non-Cooling Elec
Space Heating
DHW
Space Cooling
Grid Block Equipment End UseDistrict
Electricity
Natural Gas
Chilled Water
Hot Water (120 + 0F )
Hot Water (90 + 0F )
Waste/Process Heat
Heat Exchanger
Electric Chillers
COP: 6
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Supply
Baseline
Existing Plant
Existing Plant + CHP
Existing Plant + CCHP
Demand
Baseline
Gold +
Deep Green
Review Existing Conditions
Sustainability, Risk, Financial
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TOOLS
Program
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ProgramAssumption
Central
Plant
Central
Plant
Heating Load Profile Projections
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Heating Load Profile Projections
2010 2015 2020 2025
Phase 1
Heating Load Profile Projections
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2010 2015 2020 2025
Phase 2
Heating Load Profile Projections
Heating Load Profile Projections
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2010 2015 2020 2025
Phase 3
Heating Load Profile Projections
Heating Load Profile Projections
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2010 2015 2020 2025
Phase 4
Heating Load Profile Projections
Heating Load Profile Projections
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2010 2015 2020 2025
Phase 5
Heating Load Profile Projections
Heating Load Profile Projections
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2010 2015 2020 2025
Phase 5
Heating Load Profile Projections
Reduced summer heatdemand
Peak heat demands in Winter
Reduced mid-day heatdemand
Morning heat demandpeak(Showers, washing)
Evening heat demand
peak(Space heating, showers)
Heating Load Duration Curve Projections (Without
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Heating Load Duration Curve Projections (Withoutabsorption cooling)
2010 2015 2020 2025
Phase 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
MBH
Hours/Year
Load Duration Curve
Heating Load Duration Curve Projections (Without
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2010 2015 2020 2025
Phase 2
Heating Load Duration Curve Projections (Withoutabsorption cooling)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
MBH
Hours/Year
Load Duration Curve
Heating Load Duration Curve Projections (Without
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2010 2015 2020 2025
Phase 3
Heating Load Duration Curve Projections (Withoutabsorption cooling)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
MBH
Hours/Year
Load Duration Curve
Heating Load Duration Curve Projections (Without
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2010 2015 2020 2025
Phase 4
Heating Load Duration Curve Projections (Withoutabsorption cooling)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
MBH
Hours/Year
Load Duration Curve
Heating Load Duration Curve Projections (Without
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2010 2015 2020 2025
Phase 5
Heating Load Duration Curve Projections (Withoutabsorption cooling)
Run Criteria Potential CHP size
4,500 Full Output
Hours/Year
8.3 MBH(2.5 MWth)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
MBH
Hours/Year
Load Duration Curve
Heating Load Duration Curve Projections
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2010 2015 2020 2025
Phase 5
(With absorption cooling)
Run Criteria Potential CHP
Size
4,5000 Full Output
Hours/Year
11.8 MBH
(3.5 MWth)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
MBH
Hours/Year
Load Duration Curve
Water-Energy Nexus
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Pilot, Expand, Optimize, Maximize(4 dimensions)
DistrictEnergy Pipe
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Case Studies
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Case Studies
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Case Studies
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90 Mantri Lake Agara Development
Bangalore, India
Case Studies (India)
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Potable Water StrategiesCase Studies (India)
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Onsite Wastewater StrategiesCase Studies (India)
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All wastewater will be captured and reused on site. Additionally, a portion of thewastewater will be used to create a demonstration wetland on the edge of the sitenear Belandur lake to enhance the habitat of the lake edge and expand theecological function of the region.
Case Studies (India)
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Three strategies combine to reduce the projects energy demands:passive, active and onsite generation. While each is manifested differentlydepending on use type they combine for a dramatic reduction in totalenergy use, energy costs and related carbon emissions in perpetuity.
SITE UTILITY OVERVIEWCase Studies (India)
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UTILITY STRUCTURE / ROOM
NON-POTABLE STORAGE TANK
PRETREATMENT STORAGE TANK
POTABLE WATER STORAGE TANK
LEGEND
STORMWATERCase Studies (India)
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STORM DRAIN LINE
PUMPED STORMWATER DISCHARGE
INLET
PERENNIAL WATER FEATURE / STORAGE
SEASONAL IRRIGATION STORAGE
LEGEND
Case Studies
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99 Mantri Lake Agara Development
Bangalore, India
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Integrated Resource Modeling
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Aholistic quantitative model forimproved understanding of urbansystems and theimpact of
decisions
waste materialwatertransportationenergy carbonland use
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s
Integrated Resource Management (IRM)
Energyconsumption
CO2
emissions
(indirect,
direct,
mobile)
Wastegenerated
& diverted
Comp
osi
tion
Genera
tion
Landuse
deman
d
Em
issionra
tes
Em
ission
factors,
trip
length,%
Wa
ter
consump
tion
rates
Des
ign
life
,ma
teria
l
consump
tion
Supply
EmbodiedCarbon in
Materials
VMTs
compare baseline
and design across
multiple indicators
compare baseline
with designcompare
alternatives
B a s l e
M i a t n
compare with comparable
everyday items (e.g. wastegeneration measured in # of
garbage bins)
Land
take
Densi
ty
Un
its
Waterconsumption/w
astewater
generation
detect hotspots
of resourceconsumption
across the plan
waste materialwatertransportationenergy carbonland use
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103
s
Integrated Resource Management (IRM)
Energyconsumption
CO2
emissions
(indirect,
direct,
mobile)
Wastegenerated
& diverted
Comp
osi
tion
Genera
tion
Land
use
deman
d
Em
issionra
tes
Em
ission
factors,
trip
length,%
Wa
ter
consump
tion
rates
Des
ign
life
,ma
teria
l
consump
tion
Supply
EmbodiedCarbon in
Materials
VMTs
compare baseline
and design across
multiple indicators
compare baseline
with designcompare
alternatives
B a s l e
M i a t n
compare with comparable
everyday items (e.g. wastegeneration measured in # of
garbage bins)
Land
take
Densi
ty
Un
its
Waterconsumption/w
astewater
generation
detect hotspots
of resourceconsumption
across the plan
waste materialwatertransportationenergy carbonland use
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104
s
Integrated Resource Management (IRM)
Energyconsumption
CO2
emissions
(indirect,
direct,
mobile)
Wastegenerated
& diverted
Comp
osi
tion
Genera
tion
Land
use
deman
d
Em
issionra
tes
Em
ission
factors,
trip
length,%
Wa
ter
consump
tion
rates
Des
ign
life
,ma
teria
l
consump
tion
Supply
EmbodiedCarbon in
Materials
VMTs
compare baseline
and design across
multiple indicators
compare baseline
with designcompare
alternatives
B a s l e
M i a t n
compare with comparable
everyday items (e.g. wastegeneration measured in # of
garbage bins)
Land
take
Densi
ty
Un
its
Waterconsumption/w
astewater
generation
detect hotspots
of resourceconsumption
across the plan
waste materialwatertransportationenergy carbonland use
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105
s
Integrated Resource Management (IRM)
Energyconsumption
CO2
emissions
(indirect,
direct,
mobile)
Wastegenerated
& diverted
Comp
osi
tion
Genera
tion
Land
use
deman
d
Em
issionra
tes
Em
ission
factors,
trip
length,%
Wa
ter
consump
tion
rates
Des
ign
life
,ma
teria
l
consump
tion
Supply
EmbodiedCarbon in
Materials
VMTs
compare baseline
and design across
multiple indicators
compare baseline
with designcompare
alternatives
B a s l e
M i a t n
compare with comparable
everyday items (e.g. wastegeneration measured in # of
garbage bins)
Land
take
Densi
ty
Un
its
Waterconsumption/w
astewater
generation
detect hotspots
of resourceconsumption
across the plan
Greenhouse Gases and Emissions
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Optimized and Informed Planning
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- Plan evolution- Performance
optimization
IRMmodel
Develop
strategies
Refine
strategies
IRM
model
Optimize
Strategies
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GIS Integration
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g
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Results
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Chose 284 KPIs.
Found all reference input (52,000 cells)
Found 1224 actual inputs
Packett-Burman Sensitivity Analysis
Integrated Resource Management (IRM)
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Anaerobic
Digestion
13% wastediversion
5% energyreduction
ElectricVehicles
3% carbonsavings
10%reduction in
parking
6% energydemand
Integrated Resource Management (IRM)
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Water EfficiencyStrategies
Fixtures andAppliances
15% waterreduction
3% energysavings
Energy EfficiencyStrategies
District Water Loop
40% water
reduction
4% energy
savings
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40000
Total Operational Carbon
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Operational Carbon per Person
Scn2_Carbon_Primary
Scn2_Carbon_Primary_New
Scn2_Carbon_Primary_Existing
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Scn2_Carbon_PrimaryScn2_Carbon_Primary_New
Scn2_Carbon_Primary_Existing
Higher density enables lower
carbon per person. Existing
starting at much higher carbon perperson. Need to both retrofit and
design new build to effect low
carbon strategies.
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Different
Synergy
Ownership
Scalability
Focus
Valuation
FINANCABILITY
RISK MANAGEMENT
Buildability
Entitleability
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BUSINESS CASE
Business Case Process - Moving TowardImplementation
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p
1. Initial Value Analysis- Life Cycle Cost Analysis - Does it pencil?- Qualitative Value
2. Finance & Procurement AnalysisSelf-Perform or
Third Party approach make sense?- Risk Analysis- Financing StrategyUse Project Finance?- Third Party Engagement- Final Net Present Cost Analysis
3. Launch ProcurementRFQ, RFP
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Life Cycle CostingDoes the System Pencil vs.Business As Usual?
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Takes into consideration capital costs and energy savings only
Assumes electric rate of $0.09/kWh and gas rate of $1.25/therm
Business Case Process - Moving TowardImplementation
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122
p
1. Initial Value Analysis- Life Cycle Cost Analysis - Does it pencil?- Qualitative Value
2. Finance & Procurement AnalysisSelf-Perform or
Third Party Approach?- Risk Analysis- Financing StrategyUse Project Finance?- Third Party Engagement- Final Net Present Cost Analysis
3. Launch ProcurementRFQ, RFP
Procurement OptionsThird Party or Alt.
Procurement Options
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123
Increasing degree of third party involvement& use of performance incentives
p
IncreasingRiskTransfer
DBB DB DBOM DBFOM BOO
Design
Construction
O&M
Financing
Ownership
Is a Third Party Option Right for You?
If Yes to All Three MoveIf No to any one
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If Yes to All Three, Move
Forward with Third Party
Procurement
If No to any one
question, self
perform
Risk Management PreferencesRisk Risk Description Keep Shed Share
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Design Risk that the design of the facility is incapable of delivering the services at the
anticipated cost or that there are errors or omissions SCOPE DEFINITIONX
Capital Cost
Overrun
Risk that the actual captial costs are higher than budgeted or anticipated X
Contract Alignment Risk that design and construction execution results in O&M challenges that result in
cost increases and poor performanceX
Time to Completion Risk that the construction schedule is longer than anticipated X
Technology Risk that (a) the design and its method of delivery do not keep pace, from a
technological perspective, with Genentech requirements or (b) the design life of thefacility proves to be shorter than anticipated, thus accelerating refurbishment expense
X
Remediation Risk that soil contamination on site will require remediation, delay project X
Pollution/Environmental
Risk that ammonia storage could result in a leak that would require SAFETY NOTJUST AMMONIA IF AN ENVIRONMENTAL INCIDENT
X
Seismic (Force
Majeure)
Risk that contracted service delivery (pre- or post- completion) is not met because of
a seismic eventX
Fuel Risk that fuel prices escalate faster than anticipated (what about if they escalateslower than anticipated?)
X
Performance Risk that the unit cost of production is higher than anticipated RATIONALE? X
Regulatory (changein law)
Risk that regulatory requirements increase permit fees for constructing and operatingthe facility
X
Reduction in
Occupancy
Risk that Genetech demand decreases due to unforeseen changes to Genentech's
business.X
Exit Risk that Genentech needs to exit a contract AT ITS OWN DISCRETION X
Risk Scoring
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Weighting based on risk management priorities,(qualitative) probability of the risk occurring
Scoring on a 1-5 scale
The higher the points the more aligned the deliveryoption is with the preferred risk management
approachRisk Risk Description Weight
(1-5)DBB DBB+OM DBOM DBFOM BOO Comment/Rationale
Design Risk that the design of the facility isincapable of delivering the services at
the anticipated cost or that there are
errors or omissions
3 3 3 6 6 6 Design build most effectiveway to shed or share design
risk
Capital CostOverrun Risk that the actual captial costs arehigher than budgeted or anticipated 4 4 4 8 8 8 Design build most effectiveway to prevent change
orders for out of scopeitems (up front planning,
milestone payments,
contract enforcement,
external banks involved)
Risks Caused by Third Party Approach
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Risks inherent in transferring project delivery to a3rd party
Negative scoring
Same weighting approach
Added to project delivery risks (to create a netreduction in the overall score)
Risk Risk Description Weight
(1-5)
DBB DBB+O
M
DBOM DBFOM BOO Comment
GMP ???????? 2 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 Risk to GMP certification; is this a
showstopper?
Long TermFlexibility
Risk that changes to the long-range campus planning
cannot be adjusted duerestrictions on a long-term
contract
4 0 -4 -4 -4 -8 3rd parties and lenders will want somecertainty regarding Genentech's ability to
meet future payment obligations, but thisdoes not mean a loss of flexibility in the
contract if obligations are being met.
Total Risk Management Score
Project risk + 3rd party risk + key market drivers =
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Project risk + 3rd party risk + key market drivers =total risk management score
Key Driver Driver Description Weight(1-5) DBB DBB+OM DBOM DBFOM BOO Comment
Market Robustness Pool of qualified firms
that can deliver full 3rd
party service as required
is insufficient.
2 4 4 2 2 2 Acknowledge that there are fewer
firms that can own and operate
facilities than design and build
them
Contract
Burden/Oversight
Required
Similar to contract
alignment, Genentech
gains efficient of
contract oversight the
more the services arewrapped into a single
delivery.
4 4 8 12 16 20 Contract enforcement risk cannot
be avoided but question is - how
much administrative burden can
Genentech take on before it does
not pay?
Technology Innovation Genentech wants
continual improvement
on sustainability metrics
and efficiency
5 5 10 15 15 15 The more project delivery
components that are wrapped into
a single contract the more
opportunities there are to
incentivize efficiency and
performance.
Qualitative Score 13 22 29 33 37
Combined Project &
Third Party Risk Score
44 40 53 57 53
Total Qualitative Score 57 62 82 90 90
Overview of Project Finance Structure
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Investors
Equity
Lenders
Debt
Financing
Contracts
Project
Company
Off-taker
Contract
Design BuildContractor
DB Contract
Input Supply
Contract
Off-taker
O&M
Contract
Operator
Supplier
Why use project finance?
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Benefits Costs
Owner/Off-Taker
Perspective
Avoid large initial capital costs
Lower unit cost long-run
Leaves room for additional investment
Risk transfer
Bank due diligence
Long-term contract (20-30 yrs)
Potential higher early unit prices
More limited input on specifications
Implementation Partners - Market Overview
Utiliti
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DB DBOM DBFOM BOO
Construction
Design
O&M
Financing
Ownership
EPC
Contractors
Technology Providers
Operators
Developers/ESCos
Utilities
Self Perform Case - Annual Cash Flow (US$)
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(90)
(75)
(60)
(45)
(30)
(15)
-
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
(90)
(75)
(60)
(45)
(30)
(15)
-
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047- - - -
Millions
Millions
Capital investment Cash outflows - Commodities Cash outflows - Maintenance Tax (-) creditor / (+) debtor Annual cash flow
(Inflows)
Outflows
Alt. Procurement Cash Flow (US$)
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(90)
(75)
(60)
(45)
(30)
(15)
-
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
(90)
(75)
(60)
(45)
(30)
(15)
-
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047-
-
-
-
Millions
Millions
Cash outflows - Procurement & Pre-Operations Cash outflows - Service payments Tax (-) creditor / (+) debtor Annual cash flow
(Inflows)Ou
tflows
Net Present Cost (US$)
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Alt. Procurement Self-Perform
Is a Third Party Option Right for YouYES!
If Yes to All Three, MoveIf No to any one
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Forward with Third Party
Procurement
y
question, self
perform
Business Case Process -Moving TowardImplementation
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136
1. Initial Value Analysis- Life Cycle Cost Analysis - Does it pencil?- Qualitative Value
2. Finance & Procurement AnalysisSelf-Perform orThird Party approach make sense?
- Risk Analysis- Financing StrategyUse Project Finance?- Third Party Engagement- Final Net Present Cost Analysis
3. Launch ProcurementRFQ, RFP...let theimplementation begin!
Optimizing Systems at District Scale
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Cole Roberts, PE, LEED AP 415.946.0287Brian Renehan, MBA 415.957.9445
p g yEcoDistrict ConferenceOctober 27, 2011