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Central US Earthquake Risks & Their Distant Impacts
Or, Why the ‘Fly-Over’ States are More Important than We Thought
Phyllis Steckel, RG
Earthquake Insight LLCWashington, Mo.
Earthquake Risks in the Central US
Hazards Risks
Ground-shakingLiquefactionLateral spreadingSlumpingLandslidesAftershocks
Direct loss of life & property
Business interruptionUninsured lossesLoss of infrastructureLoss of marketLoss of market share
“Fly-Over States”
East & West Coasts have
Most populationEconomic power Political heavyweights International
gatewaysTechnology centers“Emerging”
incubators
“Fly-Over States” Unique process
facilities and industrial resources
Critical transportation corridors
National well-being depends on Central US
Key Commodities
New Madrid AreaCorporation’s
largest soybean seed production plant
$60M investment, built in 2011
50-acre footprint; 129-acre site
65 employees
New Madrid AreaPrimary aluminum – North America’s
largest foil producerElectrical and cable supply marketsFoundry alloy for vehicle wheels, hubs, &
gas pump nozzles
New Madrid Area
Coal-fired power plant
On banks of Mississippi River
Third-largest electric utility in Missouri
Southeast Missouri
City-owned power plant
Coal-fired
Straddles liquefaction features from 1811-12 earthquakes
‘Swamp east’ Missouri
Little River Drainage DistrictLRDD formed by
landowners many other drainage districts!
Designed and built 1908-1928 infrastructure
Many engineers & workers from Panama Canal project
Little River Drainage District
Little River Drainage DistrictDiverts runoff from the
Ozarks to the Mississippi
Channelized surface waters between the Mississippi and the St. Francis rivers
Productive industrialized agriculture now
“The Delta” of Missouri & ArkansasWater table near
surface
Near-flat surface topography
Shows evidence of past uplifts & downdrops from earthquakes
Northeast ArkansasMini-mills steel
recycling
Second-largest steel producing area in the US
Mostly structural steel
New $1.1B+ steel “super project” begun in 2013
Northeast Arkansas
Steel industry suppliers
Arkansas Aeroplex – one of longest runways in US
Engineered drainages
Regional Critical FacilitiesPaducah Gaseous Diffusion
Plant – located in floodplain
Opened in 1952 as only US-owned uranium enrichment facility
Owned by US Dept of Energy; privately operated
Closure, decontamination & demolition in progress
Regional Critical Facilities
Critical National Geospatial Intelligence Agency facilities are located in St. Louis and Arnold, Mo.
Critical TransportationAir transport &
logistics
Railroad
Trucking
River barge
Pipeline
Air TransportMemphis: world’s
busiest cargo airportCargo super-hub‘America’s
Distribution Center’FedEx (30,000+) in
MEM
17% of Memphis workers in transportation – highest in the country
Critical Rail TransportationRail transport
system at/near capacity
Critical concentration in central US
Memphis Intermodal serves 26% US population, 30% of US output
Critical Highway TransportationMemphis, Little
Rock, & St. Louis: busiest east-west trucking corridors in US
Interstates 55, 44, 64, 57, 70, 40
Hundreds of trucking terminals
Critical River TransportationMoves commodities
within one-third of US
Memphis is fourth-largest inland port in US
St. Louis is second-largest by ton-miles
Critical River Transportation Memphis #1 in
foreign import tonnage
~20,000+ jobs
~$10B+ economic impact
Coal, grain, ores, steel, cotton,
Critical Pipeline Transportation
Critical Inventory ExposureMemphis inventories
surgical supplies, house-hold goods, auto parts, pharmaceuticals, etc.
Order by midnight, next-day delivery
Headquarters & customers elsewhere
‘Fly-Over’ States Critical
Much of the country’s inventory and resources are located in or travel through
the central US.
Much of the country’s inventory
and resources are exposed to earthquake hazards and
earthquake risks that are generally
unrecognized.
Sustainable Disaster RecoveryDepends on
recognizing potential big-picture impacts
Depends on leadership to take action to mitigate big-picture impacts
