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Oregon Global Warming Commission:
Oregon’s Roadmap to 2020 http://www.keeporegoncool.org/content/roadmap-2020
• OR Emissions, Goals, Actions tracked since 2004
• OR met 2010 goal; 2020 ?
• Set 2035 Goal • “wedge” analysis:
measures + tax/cap
Progress Toward Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
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Historical Greenhouse Gas EmissionsGovernor's Advisory Group on Global Warming (2004) Business as Usual ForecastGreenhouse Gas Emissions from 2000 to Most Recent Data Available (2010)Current Business as Usual ForecastEnergy Efficiency (EE) and Conservation to Meet All New Load GrowthEE + Maintain Full Impact of Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to 2025EE + Maintain RPS + Boardman Power Plant Replaced with Natural Gas & Renewables (50/50) in 2021EE + Maintain RPS + Boardman Switch + Clean Fuels Program (LCFS) with 2015 Sunset Removed2020 and 2050 Goal Emissions Reduction Trajectory
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
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Historical GHG Emissions (1990 to2012)
Current Business as UsualForecast
Previous Business as UsualForecast
2020 and 2050 Goals Trajectory
Oregon GHG peak 1999
US GHG Peak 2008
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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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Transportation Residential & Commercial Industrial Agriculture
Figure 1: Oregon Emissions by Sector 1990-2012 -- (MMTCO2)
1990: 56.9 MMT
2012: 60.9 MMT
OR GHG’s _ Alternate Calculations 1990 (MMTons) 2012 (MMTons)
Total GHGs 56.9 60.9
_________________________________
Per Capita GHG (OR) 0.02 0.015
Per Capita GHG (Multnomah Cty) 0.015 0.010
_________________________________
Per Oregon GDP (GHG per MM$*) 0.877 0.296
[OR GDP $Billions in 2009$ $64.8 $205.7 ] _________________________________
Consumption Based GHG Inventory 2005 2010 2012 GHG (MMTons) 75.4 75.2 77.0
Transportation of Goods & People (no light rail)
36.0%
Electricity Use (all sectors)
31.5%
Other Residential & Commercial
Activities 12.1%
Industrial Processes &
Other Energy 11.8%
Livestock, Soil, & Crops
8.5%
Oregon Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010 (with electricity broken out from sectors)
Cars = about ¼ of OR GHG
Coal = about ¼ of OR GHG
= 50% of Oregon GHG Emissions
CARS COAL +
PGE Boardman Coal Generator, Boardman, OR
Dave Johnston/ PAC/608MW
Wyodak/ PAC/362MW
Naughton/ PAC/707MW [326MW Unit 3 shift to gas]
Jim Bridger /PAC/2318MW
Colstrip/ PSE/2272MW
Carbon/PAC/ 189MW/ Closing 2015
Hunter/ PAC/1472MW
Huntington/ PAC/996MW
Plants shown all deliver to PNW loads, and may deliver to local or other loads as well
Craig/PAC /893MW
Cholla4 (AZ)/ PAC/414MW
Boardman/PGE/585MW/ ending coal combustion 2020
Centralia/TransAlta/ 1460MW/closing by 2025
Principal Coal-burning plants serving PNW/IW loads [Plants shown all deliver to PNW loads and may deliver to local or other interstate loads also]
Hayden/ PAC/465MW
N. Valmy/ Sierra Pacific/ 512MW
PGE Projected CO2 Emissions and 2035/2050 Goal Trajectory
PAC Projected CO2 Emissions and 2035/2050 Goal Trajectory
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
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2018
2019
2020
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2022
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2035
GHG
Emiss
ions
(Met
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PGE 2050 goal trajectory PGE BAU emissions
projections historical
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
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2030
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2035
GHG
Emiss
ions
(Met
ric To
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PacifCorp 2050 goal trajectory Pac BAU emissions
projections historical
Boardman
Fig. 3: OR Emissions from Motor Gasoline and Diesel (MMTCO2e); and Statewide Total Vehicle Miles Traveled (MM)
20000
22000
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
34000
36000
38000
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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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Gasoline Diesel & residuals VMT
OR VMT Peak OR GHG Peak
Cars and Coal Est. Carbon-Equivalent MPG*: Electric Vehicles
Wichita, KN (SWPP) – 74% coal/8% gas Raleigh NC (SRVC) – 45% coal/9% gas Seattle WA (WECC) – <3% coal/<1% gas
___________________
Oregon Utilities PacifiCorp +66% coal / +17% gas = + Wichita PGE (post-Boardman) + 9% coal / +63% gas = +Raleigh Eugene (EWEB/COU) <1% coal / +1% gas = + Seattle
= 35 mpg* = 55 mpg* >112 mpg*
*Miles per gallon equivalents per UCS
Fig 11: OR GHG Goal Trajectory and Emission Reduction Wedges
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Case 2: Carbon tax plus statewide emission reduction measures
Carbon taxPower generationAgricultureWasteTransportationRCI energy efficiencyBusiness as usual forecastEmissions after measures2035 and 2050 Goal trajectory
2035 Goal
Efficiency
Transportation
Power Generation
Carbon Tax
Waste Agriculture
2015 Report Recommendations
• Set a [midway] 2035 GHG Goal
• Develop interim “benchmarks” by sector
• Address equity effects
• Track and “upload” technology (e.g., energy storage)
• Reduce in all sectors; begin with “Cars and Coal”
• Leverage federal GHG initiatives: CAFE + CPP
• Develop consumption-based goals and actions
Help From the Feds - Cars
• Auto/light truck “CAFE” efficiency standards – Goals: 35.5 mpg by 2016; 54.5 mpg by 2025 – On target? (30.1 mpg – August, 2013)
• Over-The-Road Truck fuel economy standards adopted (next: rail, air?)
Help From the Feds - Coal
• 2014: Clean Air Act S. 111(b) regulates carbon emissions from new power plants
• 2015: S. 111(d) regulates carbon emissions
from existing power plants – Goal: 32% reduction by 2030 (from 2012) – Each state gets its own target – Tools: (1) plant efficiency; (2) shift from coal to
gas; (3) shift to renewables; (4) efficiency
Coal and Oregon’s Electric Power System
Hydro 95%
Other 5%
2015
HydroCoalGasRenewablesOther
1965
Hydro 45%
Coal 33%
Gas 12%
Renewables 6% Other
3%
Dave Johnston/ PAC/608MW
Wyodak/ PAC/362MW
Naughton/ PAC/707MW [326MW Unit 3 shift to gas]
Jim Bridger /PAC/2318MW
Colstrip/ PSE/2272MW
Carbon/PAC/ 189MW/ Closing 2015
Hunter/ PAC/1472MW
Huntington/ PAC/996MW
Plants shown all deliver to PNW loads, and may deliver to local or other loads as well
Craig/PAC /893MW
Cholla4 (AZ)/ PAC/414MW
Boardman/PGE/585MW/ ending coal combustion 2020
Centralia/TransAlta/ 1460MW/closing by 2025
Principal Coal-burning plants serving PNW/IW loads [Plants shown all deliver to PNW loads and may deliver to local or other interstate loads also]
Hayden/ PAC/465MW
N. Valmy/ Sierra Pacific/ 512MW
Clean Power Plan Final Rule: Targets
OR CPP Compliance Outlook [Assumes no added EE/RE]
MT CPP Compliance: and Colstrip Coal Plant
Oregon Climate Change Research Institute 2015
Canyon Creek Fire, August 2015
South Carolina 2015 “Once in a Millennium” Storm
Oliphant - Wash Post 2003
Energy Efficiency Is Now The Northwest’s Second Largest Power Resource
Hydropower 53%
Coal 12%
Energy Efficiency
16%
Natural Gas 7%
Nuclear 3%
Wind 6%
Biomass 1%
29
PARIS?
Oregon CPP Rate-Based Goal [OR 2030 mass-based goal 8.1 MMT – from 2012 base 7.7 MMT]
Or: mass-based 2030 goal: 8.1 MMT [=6% higher than 2012]
OR CPP Compliance Outlook [Assumes no added EE/RE]
OR Consumption-Based Emissions
• “Consumption-based Emissions” Inventory • GHG’s associated with (1) what we buy, (2) how we
use it, (3) how we dispose of it • Includes GHG’s from imports (flat screen TV’s from
China; shoes from Viet Nam) • Excludes GHG’s from OR exports (Intel chips) 2005 2010 2012 GHG (MMT) 75.4 75.2 77.0