SponsorSponsorProblemProblem

AssessAssessRiskRisk

SolutionSolutionStrategyStrategy

Measures ofMeasures ofMerit (Merit (MoMMoM))

Human &Human &OrganisationalOrganisational

IssuesIssues

ScenariosScenarios

MethodsMethods& Tools& Tools

DataDataProductsProducts

3

6

4

5 7

10

8

911

ProblemProblemFormulationFormulation

Prepare forSuccess

Problem FormulationChapter 3

David S. AlbertsOffice of the Assistant Secretary of Defense

for Networks and Information Integration (OASD/NII)

NATO Code of Best Practice (COBP)for C2 Assessment

2

CO B

P Problem Formulation

SponsorSponsorProblemProblem

AssessAssessRiskRisk

ProblemProblemFormulationFormulation

SolutionSolutionStrategyStrategy

Measures ofMeasures ofMerit (Merit (MoMMoM))

Human &Human &OrganizationalOrganizational

IssuesIssues

ScenariosScenarios

ModelsMethods& Tools& Tools

DataDataProductsProducts

3

6

4

5 7

10

8

911

Prepare forSuccess

3

CO B

P Agenda

• Role and importance of Problem Formulation

• Essential elements

• Products of Problem Formulation

• Example

4

CO B

P Role of Problem Formulation

ProblemProblemFormulationFormulation

SolutionSolutionStrategyStrategy

3

4

Prepare forSuccess

Part of iterative process that balances what we would like to do with what we can do– Problem Formulation is the advocate for focusing on the

“right” issue or problem– Solution Strategy is the advocate for practicality– Prepare for Success ensures shared goals, objectives, and

perceptions

5

CO B

P Role and Importance

• Problem Formulation is fundamental to the success of all analysis– Solving the wrong problem is not helpful

• Problem Formulation focuses all of the efforts to follow– Frames the question– Determines the variables of interest– Articulates the assumptions

• C2 assessment problems are complex, often ill-defined, and central to the success of military operations

• Problem Formulation is particularly critical in C2 assessments – Since “traditional” formulations ignore many key C2-related issues

and characteristics• Frame the question in a common language that all can

understand

Beware: The problem expressed may not be the real problem

6

CO B

P Elements of Problem Formulation

• Context of the Assessment• Assumptions • The Variables

– Dependent (High Level Measures of Merit)– Independent

• Controllable• Uncontrollable

– Constraints• Domain• Range

• The Objective Function – A value function of the measures of merit

The problem is not formulated until each aspect of the problem has been specified

7

CO B

P Context of the Assessment

• Aim and objectives of the assessment• C2 issues• Decision(s) supported, knowledge sought• Stakeholders

• Nature of the situation • Political, geographical, historical, economic, and

technical factors and considerations• Actors (and their capabilities)• Threats (intentions)

Continuous dialogue required with customers,stakeholders…

8

CO B

P Make Assumptions Explicit

• Means to ends• Availability of assets• Adversary behavior and reactions• DOTMLPF (Red and Blue)• Human characteristics and performance• System characteristics and performance• What is controllable

Inappropriate or invalid assumptions can doom an effort before it is even started

9

CO B

P Products of Problem Formulation

• Precise statement of the question(s)• List of relevant variables

– Identification of the controllable variables– Identification of the MoM or dependent variables (objective

function)– Preliminary conceptual model (relationships among the variables)

• Statement of assumptions• Statement of constraints• Preliminary Data Glossary

10

CO B

P Agenda

• Role and importance of Problem Formulation• Essential elements• Products of Problem Formulation• Example

11

CO B

P Example

• Problem: Getting the anticipated staffing for the Civil Military Coordination Center (CIMIC) is going to be difficult

• Therefore, with the introduction of new technologies and/or new organizations/processes, can we achieve the desired level of effectiveness?

12

CO B

P Dependent Variables

• What constitutes “effectiveness?”

Speed

Effectiveness

• Ability to Develop Plans That Achieve Assigned Missions

• Adaptability• Speed Important

But Not Sufficient

Risk Efficiency

13

CO B

P Controllable Variables

• What can we control?”

Function Structure

• Activities• Level of Detail

• Relationship Among Elements

- Connectivity- Authority- Information

14

CO B

P Other Independent Variables

• What other factors can affect the outcome?

Chars. of C2 Center

People Linkages

ProceduresInformationProcessing

15

CO B

P Conceptual Model

C3I System

Function StructureChars. of C2 Center

People Linkages

ProceduresInformationProcessing

Risk Efficiency Speed

Effectiveness

• Activities• Level of Detail

• Relationship Among Elements

- Connectivity- Authority- Information

• Ability to Develop Plans That Achieve Assigned Missions

• Adaptability• Speed Important

But Not Sufficient

Operational Environment

16

CO B

P Other Variables and Considerations

• Information sharing– Dealing with distrust (mutual)– What can military share (e.g., HUMINT, sensitive

information)• Cultural differences

– NGOs- consensus, ambiguity– Military- clear planning, orders

• Parochial issues– NGOs/IOs/IHOs– Military

• CIMIC location– NGOs- fear of being too closely associated with military

• Military- force protection issues

17

CO B

P Summary

Problem Formulation

IndependentVariables• controlled• uncontrolled

“Question”

Assumptions andConstraints

High LevelMoMs

StudySponsors

andStakeholders