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Climate Change, the Arctic and

International Security

With John Topping, Founder and President of the Climate Institute

A lecture for the University of Oklahoma

Inaugural Event of the Global Sustainability SeriesFebruary 19, 2013

Climate Change’s Acceleration

Source

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Source: NASA Image

Humanity’s Emissions are Playing a RoleGreenhouse gases & aerosols are having an impact on climate

Climate Change’s Acceleration

Poses increasing risk: enhanced sea level rise

affecting coastal areas and island nations

threat to water resources and agriculture

a realistic possibility of more extreme events; swings between floods and droughts

possible increased occurrence of severe storms (*science uncertain on tornadoes)

On a local level in recent years, The National Weather Service has determined 90.92% of Oklahoma is in D3 (extreme) and D4 (exceptional) levels. This is the worst drought Oklahoma has encountered in decades.

“Oklahomans are accustomed to cruel climate. Frigid winters and searing summers are often made more unbearable by scouring winds. But even by Oklahoma standards, it's been a year of whipsaw weather.”

- Los Angeles Times, August 24, 2011

Oklahoma’s Current Drought Conditions

Weather Events and Climate Variability

While no single weather related event — flood, drought, fire or severe storm — can be attributed to climate change, it is prudent to build climate resilience.

There is a probability that investment decisions will need to be made for water resources, agricultural and/or infrastructure planning to offset risks. National Weather

Service Weather Center in Norman places OU at center of efforts.

Tushka, Oklahoma tornado, an EF3 which struck the town on April 14, 2011, during the Mid-April 2011 tornado outbreak. Shot by Gabe Garfield and Marc Austin of the National Weather Service.

Uncertainties

How do we improve our understanding of what is at risk and possible responses?

Crucial considerations for coastal and flood plain planning, water resource planning, infrastructure and building design, etc.

Pace of change

Regional implications

Will there be changed frequency of extreme events? Severe storms, floods

and droughts

Forces Occurring Together to Accelerate Stress

Not only adverse human or natural stress affecting ecosystems or areas in which we live.

Growing ocean acidification.

Depletion of fossil aquifers.

Land degradation.

Destruction of forests, especially in the tropical regions.

Systems are Interdependent

Protecting the Ogallala Aquifer for Future Use

Some Encouraging Trends

U.S. Greenhouse Gases

Total emissions levels have dropped almost to 1994 levels due largely to increased efficiency and greater use of renewables.

Should continue to be amplified by substitution in U.S. of natural gas for coal in the utility sector.

To maximize climate benefits of coal to gas switch, it is crucial to minimize methane leaks from  natural gas system.

Energy Use & Emissions

U.S. Position: Opportunity

Leverage our good fortune as soon-to-be world’s leading energy producer; ensure continued prosperity and catalyze effective national response to climate change.

In natural gas sector: hold overall  methane leakage from natural   gas extraction, transmission and  distribution to below 1%.

How can our energy planning and foreign policy promote results that will sustain our national economy, reduce risk of climate disruption, and meld into climate protection responses, benefits to human health and food production?

U.S. Opportunities

Wide political support here. April 22, 2009, joint sponsorship of successful legislation by Senators Inhofe, Carper, Boxer and Kerry to mandate U.S. EPA to develop options for black carbon reductions here and abroad.

Encourage special focus on emission reductions in regions such as Arctic, where we may be at near irreversible climate tipping points.

Reduce federal and state regulatory barriers to energy recycling (cogeneration).

Promote aggressive international attack on Short- Lived Climate Forcers that affect climate and human health and  where benefits can be realized soon.

Global Emission Trends

Climate and Clean Air Coalition

Rapid growth of CCAC action on black carbon, methane, hydrofluorocarbons  and tropospheric ozone that together produce as much an effect on climate change as CO2. 

Reductions will often yield not only climate benefits but enhanced  human health (BC), and sometimes economic (recovery for energy of leaking methane) or safety (harvesting of methane from coal mines).

Challenges Barrier to be overcome:

failure of Kyoto Protocol-based trading systems to incentivize these reductions.

Rethinking How We Compare GHGs

Common Metric:1 tonne of methane = 22 tonnes of CO2

Possible New Metric:1 tonne of methane = 75 tonnes of CO2

What’s the difference? (Hint: Methane only lasts 12 years)

Tropospheric Ozone

Formed as a secondary product of other emissions By oxidation of methane, CO, and VOCs in the presence

of NOx

Once formed, lasts 20 – 24 days

Warming Effect is ~ 0.3 W/m2

18% of CO2 effect

Methane

Atmospheric concentrations rising after several years of stability

Lasts 12 years in atmosphere

Warming Effect is ~ 0.86 W/m2

Just over 50% of CO2 effect

Win-Win opportunities to reduce methane

Black Carbon (Soot)

Dark-colored type of aerosol / particulate matter (PM) Absorbs sunlight and heat Stays in atmosphere for only 1 – 2 weeks

Atmospheric Warming Effect is 0.44 – 0.9 W/m2

28 – 55% of CO2 effect

Decreased snow albedo in Arctic and Himalayas Enormous regional increase in warming effect Globally averaged, is an additional 0.1 – 0.2 W/m2

Harmful to human respiratory health

Regional Effects

• “Tropospheric ozone and BC snow albedo effect contribute substantially to rapid warming and sea ice loss in the Arctic” - James Hansen et al. 2005

• Arctic Warming Since 1890 (Shindell et al. 2009)• Black carbon: 0.5 – 1.4˚C• Trop. Ozone: 0.2 – 0.4˚C

• Shindell estimates that combined sulfate decrease and BC increase caused 75% of direct Arctic warming over past 30 years

Benefits from Black Carbon Reduction

Atmospheric loading and warming influence will drop as emissions drop

Acute decrease in Arctic warming

Reducing certain BC emissions will result in: Reduced indoor air pollution, which kills 1.9M annually Reduced outdoor air pollution, which kills 0.8M annually

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Warming Effect During 21st CenturyAggressive Reductions in both GHGs and Black Carbon

Credit: MacCracken 2009

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Near-Term Changes in Warming EffectBlack Carbon is Critical to Reducing Near-Term Warming

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Aggressive Reductionsin BC and GHGs

Credit: MacCracken 2009

The Four Crucial Regions

Himalayas

Amazonian Rainforest & Andean

Mountains

The Four Crucial Regions

Antarctica The Arctic

Short-Lived Climate Forcers

Amazon Amazon land and

conversion forest loss may push to point of dieback. Andes may be affected both by warming and SLCF deposition. Could mean loss of water resources for tens of millions.

Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau   Water resources for at least a

sixth of humanity could be imperiled.

Decisive global action targeting SLCFs the next best step to bide time for the regions in danger of irreversible damage. Increased efficiency, non or

low-carbon fuel sources. Antarctic

Parts warming rapidly with potential for adding to sea level rise from melting of glaciers in  Greenland and other regions and warming of upper layers of ocean.

South America: Closely Interconnected

Ecosystems

Amazon Rainforest The Amazonian Rainforest is the

greatest treasure trove of biodiversity on the planet.

It is disappearing rapidly due to land conversion for cattle farms, mining and small farmers.

Brazilian Scientists (Simoes & Evangelista) report that emissions from burning for land clearing in the Amazon, especially for cattle farms, may be producing as much as half of black carbon deposition in the Antarctic.

Andes Mountains Glaciers in the mountains

provide water supplies for tens of millions in South America and hydropower for millions.

Rapid glacial melt imperils this water supply.

Efforts are underway to install cleaner cook stoves in many Andean communities and reduce black carbon emissions.

Antarctica

Glacial thinning:

Glaciers in Antarctica contain about 70% of all the fresh water on Earth; if all were to melt, global sea levels would rise over 60 meters — more than 200 feet.

Antarctica

There is a modest net loss now from Antarctica, about 150 cubic kilometers each year (Hansen, 2007) but if this accelerates it could add significantly to global sea level rise.

Deposition of significant quantities of black carbon from fires in South America and Africa has been detected in Antarctica and linked to agricultural burning. No linkage has yet been done on their role in ice loss.

Although Antarctica is the coldest region on Earth, some portions in the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctic are among the most rapidly warming parts of the planet.

Most Antarctic ice loss seems attributable to interaction with warming waters of the Southern Ocean more than to warming on the land.

The Himalayas

Himalayas – Tibetan Plateau

Emissions of black carbon, especially from diesel transport and cook stoves, appear as great a factor as overall global warming in spurring glacial melting.

Indian Supreme Court has mandated that in public transport compressed natural gas vehicles replace current diesel and other vehicles.

Provides water supplies for about one of every six humans on earth. Rapid glacial melt underway that may reduce water availability.

Project Surya seeks to reduce black carbon emissions, save lives and reduce climate forcing through replacement of cook stoves and kerosene lanterns with cleaner alternatives  http://www.projectsurya.org/

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The Arctic’s Role

And Functions of the Arctic Climate Action Registry

The Arctic Crisis

Scientists have confirmed that the Arctic is in crisis, and acts as a bellwether as a sensitive region.

At the current rate of warming, Arctic summers will be ice-free within five to ten years, for the first time in 65 million years.

There will be enormous disruption to local communities and wildlife. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg—a melting Arctic will have dire consequences for the entire planet.

Source: http://www.arcticclimateregistry.org/

Climate Change in the Arctic

In September 2012, a new record level of Ice melt was recorded. At this rate the Arctic could be ice-free in summer by the end of this decade.

Economist, August 28 2012

Climate Change in the Arctic

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet, contributing to global sea level rise

Scientists at NASA first thought satellite readings were a mistake after images showed 97% surface melt over four days

Significant erosion, threatening villages

Collapse of whole ecosystems

Melting of permafrost and release of trapped methane hydrates

Chief Causes

Global Warming CO2 and other Kyoto GHGs

Arctic Regional Contribution (50-70%) Methane Black Carbon Tropospheric Ozone

Methane Hydrate Pulse5,000 billion tons trapped ~

all CO2 and CH4 combined

Climate Change Impacts

Displacement of villages due to sea level rise and melting permafrost

Public infrastructure damage

Ecosystem impacts (e.g., new pests, migratory species)

Food security (e.g., fisheries, subsistence hunting, melting ice cellars)

Human health issues (e.g., disease, asthma)

ALASKA

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has reported:

Almost all of Alaska’s 200+ villages have been affected by flooding and erosion, with 4 requiring relocation

31 villages face imminent threats

12 of the 31 villages are exploring relocation options

Climate Change Impacts

Locations of Arctic Indigenous Peoples

Arctic Climate Action Registry (ACAR)

An effort to incentivize reductions of emissions of soot, methane and tropospheric ozone forming compounds.

No other organization in the world is taking action fast enough to save the Arctic. The Arctic Climate Action Registry will certify projects that immediately counteract the meltdown in the Arctic using metrics defined in the new Draft American (ANSI) Greenhouse Gas Accounting Standard.

The Arctic Climate Action Registry Network is a social network consisting of scientists, business leaders, government officials, educators, and consumers. Its goal is to help members communicate about taking action to save the Arctic.

If successful, could be adapted and extended to the Antarctic, Amazon-Andes and Himalayas.

ACAR Vision, Mission and Strategy

VISION: Slow down and ultimately end climate change in the Arctic region and, in so doing, slow down climate change around the globe.

MISSION: Mitigate greenhouse gases and other climate forcers affecting the Arctic region.

STRATEGY: Stimulate projects and activities in support of our mission, based on incentives and market mechanisms, with measurable progress within the decade.

ACAR Registry Project Opportunities

Examples

Shipping – Equipping ships with technology to capture black carbon, and using or purchasing turbine-powered ships.

Forest fires – Boreal forest crown fire suppression management under Forest Stewardship Council guidelines.

Airlines – Reduced emissions from airline fleets, e.g., some rerouting of flights, increased fuel efficiency.

Pollution Prevention –Stack emissions captured at electricity production and other industrial facilities.

Methane Capture – Methane capture for energy generation.

Natural Cycle Enhancement – Micronization of sea water to help cool the region, i.e., ships generating spray to promote cooling.

Significance for International Security

Aside from a scramble for energy resources, there are negative implications of enhanced Greenland melt for U.S. and other major world cities.

Potential unpredictable effects on weather patterns and world agriculture at loss of year round Arctic Sea Ice.

Summation & Action Plan

The focus on the Arctic is justified and mitigation should be viewed in a global context. e.g., Greenland melting

is a crucial threat to sea levels  worldwide because of annual ice loss of 150 cubic km (Hansen). 

The three other vulnerable regions: Antarctic, Himalayas- Tibetan Plateau and Amazon-Andes, may ultimately be targets of regional SLCF focused  mitigation strategies. Why? 150 cubic km

annual ice loss is also true for Antarctica (Hansen).

Climate Change and the International Stage

Thank you!

Questions/Comments?

Acknowledgments: Principally Jillian Jordan, thanks also to Michael MacCracken, John - Michael Cross, Matt Vetter, Christopher Philipp and Linda Brown.

Climate.org & Arctic Climate Action Registry (ACAR)