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ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 20031
1
Chemical forecastsChemical forecasts
D. Fonteyn (@oma.be)Belgisch Instituut voor Ruimte-Aëronomie (BIRA-IASB)
2
OUTLINEOUTLINE
• Introduction: stratospheric chemistry overview• Diagnostic capability of chemicaldata assimilation• Operational set-up & forecasts• Scientific issues
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 20032
3
Operational implementation Operational implementation
Operational chemical data assimilation
Daily best estimate of chemical composition
Chemical forecasts based on dynamical forecastsbased on dynamical forecasts
4
Operational implementation Operational implementation
� � � � � � � Forecast
24 hr0 hr 24 hr0 hr
ECMWF fields
MIPAS NRT observations
24 hr Chemical analysis10 day Chemical forecast
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 20033
5
Operational implementation Operational implementation
Chemical forecast 6
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 20034
7
Gas phase chemistry1. Chapman Cycle
2. Catalytic cycles1. Hydrogen radicals (HOx)
OH + O → H + O2
H + O3 → OH + O 2
Net: O + O3 → 2 O2
OH + O → H + O2
H + O2 + M → HO2+ M
HO2 + O → OH + O2
Net: O + O3 → O2
HO2 + O → OH + O2
OH + O3 → HO2 + O2
Net: O + O3 → 2 O2
Hydrogen Source Gases: H2O, CH4
• Long term trends
• HOx chemistry in the upperstratosphere and mesosphere
StratosphericStratospheric chemistrychemistry
8
StratosphericStratospheric chemistrychemistry2. Nitrogen radicals (NOy)
NO2 + O → NO + O2
NO + O3 → NO2 + O2
Net: O + O3 → 2 O2
3. Chlorine radicals (Cly)ClO + O → Cl + O2
Cl + O3 → ClO + O2
Net: O + O3 → 2 O2
Chlorine Source Gases: Organic Chlorine• Long term trends• Cly partitioning (in the lower
stratosphere: aerosols )
Nitrogen Source Gas: N2O (and …)
• Long term trends• NOy partitioning (in the lower
stratosphere: aerosols )
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 20035
9
Ozone lossOzone loss
35°N,September 1993
24 hour average
WMO, 1998
10
Lower StratosphereLower Stratosphere
Gas phase chemistry triggered by heterogeneousprocessing
ClO + ClO + M → ClOOCl + M
ClOOCl + h í → 2 Cl + O2
2 ( Cl + O3 → ClO + O2 )
Net: 2 O3 → 3 O2
BrO + ClO → Br + Cl + O2
→ BrCl + O2
BrCl + h í → Br + Cl
Br + O3 → BrO + O2
Cl + O3 → ClO + O2
Net: 2 O3 → 3 O2
ClOx/Cly & NOx/NOy
Polar Stratospheric Clouds
Aerosols (Pinatubo)
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 20036
11
Lower Stratosphere Ozone LossLower Stratosphere Ozone Loss
12
Why CDA & Forecast?Why CDA & Forecast?
Dispersion of tracer advection:(Schoeberl et al., JGR 2003)
↓↓
25 Day free model run: N2O and comparison with analyses
↓↓
“Chemical species drift”
Analysis – forecast
ppbv
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 20037
13
Operational forecasts Operational forecasts
• Operational chemical data assimilation: (BASCOE) – CTM, 57 species, PSCs, ECMWF dynamics– 4D-VAR, MIPAS NRT data
• Chemical analyses: initial state for forecast• CTM must be driven by dynamical forecast
• Now mainly winter periods
• This course: – Examples to get a feeling
• N2O, O3, HNO3, NAT particles, ClO– Quantitative “forecast skill”?
14
Forecast
Analysis
20030705 20030707
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 20038
15
Forecast
2003071120030709
Analysis
16
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1284 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1284.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1283.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1283.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1284.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
Forecast
20030707 20030708
Analysis
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 20039
17
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1286 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1286.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1285 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1285.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1285.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1286.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
Forecast
2003071020030709
Analysis
18
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1287 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1287.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
O 3 / M I P _ F O R _ v 2 B 4 1 _ 1 2 8 3 / θ ≈ 5 0 0 K / z ≈ 2 1 . 1 k m / m j d = 1 2 8 7 . 5
[ v m r ]
1 1 . 5 2 2 . 5 3 3 . 5 4 4 . 5 5
x 10-6
O 3 / M I P _ F O R _ v 2 B 4 1 _ 1 2 8 3 / θ ≈ 5 0 0 K / z ≈ 2 1 . 1 k m / m j d = 1 2 8 8 . 5
[ v m r ]
1 1 . 5 2 2 . 5 3 3 . 5 4 4 . 5 5
x 10-6
Forecast
2003071220030711
Analysis
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1288 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1288.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 200310
19
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1290 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1290.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1289 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1289.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1289.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1290.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
x 10-6
Forecast
2003071420030713
Analysis
20
H N O 3 / M I P _ F O R _ v 2 B 4 1 _ 1 2 8 3 / θ ≈ 5 0 0 K / z ≈ 2 1 . 1 k m / m j d = 1 2 8 3 . 5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
H N O 3 / M I P _ F O R _ v 2 B 4 1 _ 1 2 8 3 / θ ≈ 5 0 0 K / z ≈ 2 1 . 1 k m / m j d = 1 2 8 4 . 5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
HNO3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1283.5
[vmr]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
HNO3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1284 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1284.5
[vmr]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
Forecast
Analysis
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 200311
21
H N O 3 / M I P _ F O R _ v 2 B 4 1 _ 1 2 8 3 / θ ≈ 5 0 0 K / z ≈ 2 1 . 1 k m / m j d = 1 2 8 5 . 5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
H N O 3 / M I P _ F O R _ v 2 B 4 1 _ 1 2 8 3 / θ ≈ 5 0 0 K / z ≈ 2 1 . 1 k m / m j d = 1 2 8 6 . 5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
HNO3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1285 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1285.5
[vmr]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
HNO3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1286 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1286.5
[vmr]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
Forecast
Analysis
22
H N O 3 / M I P _ F O R _ v 2 B 4 1 _ 1 2 8 3 / θ ≈ 5 0 0 K / z ≈ 2 1 . 1 k m / m j d = 1 2 8 7 . 5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
H N O 3 / M I P _ F O R _ v 2 B 4 1 _ 1 2 8 3 / θ ≈ 5 0 0 K / z ≈ 2 1 . 1 k m / m j d = 1 2 8 8 . 5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
HNO3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1287 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1287.5
[vmr]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
HNO3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1288 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1288.5
[vmr]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
Forecast
Analysis
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 200312
23
H N O 3 / M I P _ F O R _ v 2 B 4 1 _ 1 2 8 3 / θ ≈ 5 0 0 K / z ≈ 2 1 . 1 k m / m j d = 1 2 8 9 . 5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
H N O 3 / M I P _ F O R _ v 2 B 4 1 _ 1 2 8 3 / θ ≈ 5 0 0 K / z ≈ 2 1 . 1 k m / m j d = 1 2 9 0 . 5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
HNO3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1289 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1289.5
[vmr]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
HNO3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1290 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1290
[vmr]
2 4 6 8 10 12
x 10-9
Forecast
Analysis
24
NAT / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1283.5
[cm2 /cm3]
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
x 10- 8
NAT / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1284.5
[cm2 /cm3]
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
x 10- 8NAT / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1283.5
[cm2 /cm3]
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
x 10- 8
NAT / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1284 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1284.5
[cm2 /cm3]
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
x 10- 8
Forecast
Analysis
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 200313
25
NAT / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1285.5
[cm2 /cm3]
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
x 10- 8
NAT / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1286.5
[cm2 /cm3]
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
x 10- 8NAT / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1285 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1285.5
[cm2 /cm3]
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
x 10- 8
NAT / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1286 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1286.5
[cm2 /cm3]
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
x 10- 8
Forecast
Analysis
26
NAT / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1287.5
[cm2 /cm3]
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
x 10- 8
NAT / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1288.5
[cm2 /cm3]
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
x 10- 8NAT / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1287 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1287.5
[cm2 /cm3]
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
x 10- 8
NAT / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1288 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1288.5
[cm2 /cm3]
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
x 10- 8
Forecast
Analysis
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 200314
27
CLO / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1284 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1284.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
CLO / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1283.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
CLO / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1283.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
CLO / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1284.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
Forecast
Analysis
28
CLO / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1286 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1286.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
CLO / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1285 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1285.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
CLO / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1285.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
CLO / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1286.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
Forecast
Analysis
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 200315
29
CLO / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1288 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1288.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
CLO / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1287 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1287.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
CLO / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1287.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
CLO / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1288.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
Forecast
Analysis
30
CLO / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1290 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1290.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
CLO / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1289 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1289.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
CLO / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1289.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
CLO / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 500K / z ≈ 21.1km / mjd = 1290.5
[ v m r ]
2 4 6 8 10 1 2 14
x 10-10
Forecast
Analysis
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 200316
31
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.3km / mjd = 1283.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.3km / mjd = 1284.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1283 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.3km / mjd = 1283.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1284 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.3km / mjd = 1284.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
Forecast
Analysis
32
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.3km / mjd = 1285.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.2km / mjd = 1286.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1285 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.3km / mjd = 1285.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1286 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.3km / mjd = 1286.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
Forecast
Analysis
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 200317
33
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.2km / mjd = 1287.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.2km / mjd = 1288.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1287 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.3km / mjd = 1287.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1288 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.3km / mjd = 1288.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
Forecast
Analysis
34
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.2km / mjd = 1289.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_FOR_v2B41_1283 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.2km / mjd = 1290.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1289 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.3km / mjd = 1289.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
O3 / MIP_NRT_v2b41_1290 / θ ≈ 2000K / z ≈ 49.3km / mjd = 1290.5
[vmr]
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
x 10-6
Forecast
Analysis
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 200318
35
Forecast skill: first estimateForecast skill: first estimateILLUSTRATIVEILLUSTRATIVE
• H. Eskes Atmos.Chem.Phys., 2, 271-278, 2002• Root Mean Square Error; f=forecast,a=analysis,c=climatology
• Anomaly correlation coefficient:
• Climatology: H. Eskes; modified climatology (running monthly mean)
2
2
)(
)(
ca
afRMSE
−
−=
22 )()(
))((
cacf
caafACC
−−
−−=
36
11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 9900
0.20.2
0.40.4
0.60.6
0.80.8
11
1.21.2
1.41.4
F o r e c a s t D a yF o r e c a s t D a y
NN22
O RMSE @ 500KO RMSE @ 500K
l a t < - 6 0 °l a t < - 6 0 °-60° < lat < -20°-60° < lat < -20°-20° < lat < 20°-20° < lat < 20°20° < lat < 60°20° < lat < 60°6 0 < l a t6 0 < l a t
11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 9900
0.10.1
0.20.2
0.30.3
0.40.4
0.50.5
0.60.6
0.70.7
0.80.8
0.90.9
11
F o r e c a s t D a yF o r e c a s t D a y
NN22O A C C @ 5 0 0 KO A C C @ 5 0 0 K
l a t < - 6 0 °l a t < - 6 0 °-60° < lat < -20°-60° < lat < -20°-20° < lat < 20°-20° < lat < 20°20° < lat < 60°20° < lat < 60°6 0 < l a t6 0 < l a t
Forecast skill NForecast skill N22O, Lower Strat. SH winterO, Lower Strat. SH winter
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 200319
37
11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 9900
0.20.2
0.40.4
0.60.6
0.80.8
11
1.21.2
1.41.4
1.61.6
1.81.8
F o r e c a s t D a yF o r e c a s t D a y
OO33 RMSE @ 500K RMSE @ 500K
l a t < - 6 0 °l a t < - 6 0 °-60° < lat < -20°-60° < lat < -20°-20° < lat < 20°-20° < lat < 20°20° < lat < 60°20° < lat < 60°6 0 < l a t6 0 < l a t
11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 9900
0.10.1
0.20.2
0.30.3
0.40.4
0.50.5
0.60.6
0.70.7
0.80.8
0.90.9
11
F o r e c a s t D a yF o r e c a s t D a y
OO33 A C C @ 5 0 0 K A C C @ 5 0 0 K
l a t < - 6 0 °l a t < - 6 0 °-60° < lat < -20°-60° < lat < -20°-20° < lat < 20°-20° < lat < 20°20° < lat < 60°20° < lat < 60°6 0 < l a t6 0 < l a t
Forecast skill OForecast skill O33, Lower Strat. SH winter, Lower Strat. SH winter
38
11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 9900
0.20.2
0.40.4
0.60.6
0.80.8
11
1.21.2
1.41.4
F o r e c a s t D a yF o r e c a s t D a y
C l O R M S E @ 5 0 0 KC l O R M S E @ 5 0 0 K
l a t < - 6 0 °l a t < - 6 0 °-60° < lat < -20°-60° < lat < -20°-20° < lat < 20°-20° < lat < 20°20° < lat < 60°20° < lat < 60°6 0 < l a t6 0 < l a t
11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 990.40.4
0.50.5
0.60.6
0.70.7
0.80.8
0.90.9
11
F o r e c a s t D a yF o r e c a s t D a y
C l O A C C @ 5 0 0 KC l O A C C @ 5 0 0 K
l a t < - 6 0 °l a t < - 6 0 °-60° < lat < -20°-60° < lat < -20°-20° < lat < 20°-20° < lat < 20°20° < lat < 60°20° < lat < 60°6 0 < l a t6 0 < l a t
Forecast skill ClO, Lower Strat. SH winterForecast skill ClO, Lower Strat. SH winter
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 200320
39
11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 9900
0.20.2
0.40.4
0.60.6
0.80.8
11
1.21.2
1.41.4
F o r e c a s t D a yF o r e c a s t D a y
HNOHNO33
R M S E @ 2 0 0 0 K R M S E @ 2 0 0 0 K
l a t < - 6 0 °l a t < - 6 0 °-60° < lat < -20°-60° < lat < -20°-20° < lat < 20°-20° < lat < 20°20° < lat < 60°20° < lat < 60°6 0 < l a t6 0 < l a t
11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 990.30.3
0.40.4
0.50.5
0.60.6
0.70.7
0.80.8
0.90.9
11
F o r e c a s t D a yF o r e c a s t D a y
H N OH N O33
A C C @ 2 0 0 0 K A C C @ 2 0 0 0 K
lat < -60°la t < -60°-60° < lat < -20°-60° < lat < -20°-20° < lat < 20°-20° < lat < 20°20° < la t < 60°20° < la t < 60°6 0 < l a t6 0 < l a t
Forecast skill HNOForecast skill HNO33, Lower Strat. SH winter, Lower Strat. SH winter
40
11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 990.20.2
0.40.4
0.60.6
0.80.8
11
1.21.2
1.41.4
1.61.6
1.81.8
22
2.22.2
F o r e c a s t D a yF o r e c a s t D a y
OO33 R M S E @ 2 0 0 0 K R M S E @ 2 0 0 0 K
l a t < - 6 0 °l a t < - 6 0 °-60° < lat < -20°-60° < lat < -20°-20° < lat < 20°-20° < lat < 20°20° < lat < 60°20° < lat < 60°6 0 < l a t6 0 < l a t
11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 990.10.1
0.20.2
0.30.3
0.40.4
0.50.5
0.60.6
0.70.7
0.80.8
0.90.9
F o r e c a s t D a yF o r e c a s t D a y
OO33
A C C @ 2 0 0 0 K A C C @ 2 0 0 0 K
l a t < - 6 0 °l a t < - 6 0 °-60° < lat < -20°-60° < lat < -20°-20° < lat < 20°-20° < lat < 20°20° < lat < 60°20° < lat < 60°6 0 < l a t6 0 < l a t
Forecast skill OForecast skill O33, Lower Strat. SH winter, Lower Strat. SH winter
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
Chemical forecasts18th – 29th August 200321
41
Forecast skill: first estimateForecast skill: first estimateconclusionconclusion
• H. Eskes Atmos.Chem.Phys., 2, 271-278, 2002• RMSE & ACC give similar picture• ClO non-observed species: very good forecast skill?• HNO3 better than O3 , N2O (tracer)• Latitudinal & species dependence:
– Assimilation & observational quality (biases, noise)– Effect of photo-chemistry
• A larger number of forecasts, investigation on modified climatology
• First illustration of stratospheric chemical forecast skill
• STILL A LONG WAY TO GO
42
Chemical stratospheric forecastsChemical stratospheric forecastsconclusionconclusion
• Chemical forecasts set-up like NWP set-up• “More expensive” (computer time) than NWP (3-5 times)• First set-up for Cal/Val• Scientific value• Other domains:
– A priori information for retrieval– Precursor of chemical weather