Outline - Iowa State University34.78 31.66 30.87 30.43 25.00 28.00 31.00 34.00 37.00 40.00 43.00 Monthly sow herd size in past one year (million heads) Sow herd size decreased about

Iowa Swine Day

June 27, 2019

African Swine Fever:An Update from the Other Side of the World

Outline

• ASF - background and facts

• Asia pig industry - background

• Progression of disease in Asia

• Impact of disease in Asia

©Pig Improvement Company. | 2

Background to African Swine FeverAn inapparent virus infection of warthogs in Africa

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“75% of African warthogs in Mozambique were infected without signs of disease” (Quembo 2014)

No disease in warthogs (Phacochoerus spp.)

However, significant disease seen when spill-over to domestic pig population.

Global spill-over 1957

• Spain, Portugal, Italy, Brazil, NL.

Global spill-over since 2007

• Caucasus, Russian Federation, Eastern EU, progressing to China.


Background to African Swine FeverA complex virus attacking all the pig’s body systems

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Asfarviridae: a complex DNA virus encoding 150-160 proteins in genome (c.f. PCV2 encodes 5 proteins).

Ingestion of virus by mouth:

• Infects via lymph nodes and becomes distributed in all organs via blood-stream

• Onset of acute disease usually within 21 days

Soft-bodied ticks (Ornithodorus spp), a relevant vector in some areas


Background to African Swine FeverDamage to lining of blood-vessels affects all body systems

Abortion, born dead

DiarrheaCoughing

Fever and reddening of skin

Weakness and incoordination

Low appetite, vomiting

Conjunctivitis

70 – 100% infected pigs die acutely within 4-21 daysRarely, infected pigs remain alive and shed virus persistently


Background to African Swine FeverASF is less contagious than Classical Swine Fever or Foot and Mouth Disease, but more lethal in affected pigs

Klaus Depner, FLI Germany ©Pig Improvement Company. | 6

Background to African Swine FeverKey features supporting transmission

Sick pigs shed very high levels of infectious virus

Long term survival of infectious virus in the environment:

• Blood or meat products of sick/ slaughtered domestic pigs

• Carcasses of dead wild boar

• Contaminated vehicles / equipment

• Contaminated feedstuffs

Wild boar are also susceptible

Low biosecurity standards especially of small-scale production


Background to African Swine FeverExtended survival of infectious virus assists transmission

http://www.fao.org/3/i8805en/I8805EN.pdf


Background to African Swine Fever

Clinical features and pathology of acute septicaemia:• Must differentiate from other diseases (Classical

swine fever, Salmonellosis, Eryspelothrix, Actinobacillosis, PDNS…)

Laboratory confirmation:• PCR of blood / tissue: detectable within days of

infection

• ELISA to detect antibody: detectable within 2-3 weeks of infection (unusual to detect before death)

Notification to OIE

Control of ASF depends on rapid diagnosis

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Approaches for ASF control and preventionChoices for control of ASF are very limited

No effective vaccines likely to be available in the next years

No effective treatment for sick pigs

Slaughter and disposal is only option for infected herd

Prevention is feasible through stringent and systematic biosecurity to prevent virus entry.

Xinhua / Reuters


Approaches for ASF control and prevention

Basis for immunity against ASFV is not understood:• Very few animals survive natural infection.

40 years of failed research:• Killed vaccines, subunit vaccines.

Live attenuated vaccines• Most promising – can prevent clinical disease

when challenged by same genotype

• Issues with safety and prolonged shedding

• 5+ years away

Vaccines will not be available in the near future



China/Asia Pig Industry Background


Structure Evolution of China’s Pig Farming_2006-2020

57%

39%28%

20%10%

37%

49%

54%58%

60%

6%12%

18% 22%30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 2009 2012 2015 2020F

Small size farm (1-49 heads/farm) Mid size farm (50-3000 heads/farm) Commercial farm (+3000 heads/farm)

Source: Rabobank


China/Asia is Currently Modernizing the Pig Industry

• Similar industry structure as US pig industry in 80’s and 90’s• Many small pig farms

• Big pig farms being built rapidly

• Industry very fragmented

• Large amount of pig movements around the country

• Biosecurity is a concept but implementation is lacking


Progression of ASF in Asia

Progression of current epidemic

Georgia, 2007• Likely arrived as catering waste from shipping via Africa (Mozambique)

Southern Russia, 2008• Human mediated jump to St Petersburg, 2009

Ukraine and Belarus, 2013

EU, 2014• Poland and Baltic States, 2014• Moldova, 2016• Czech, Romania, 2017• Belgium, 2018.

Eastern Russia, 2017/18• China 2018, Vietnam and Cambodia 2019.

Port of Poti, Georgia

Video of disease progression 2007-18


https://www.fli.de/en/news/animal-disease-situation/african-swine-fever/


China – August, 2018


China – September, 2018


China – October, 2018


China – November, 2018


China – December, 2018


China – January, 2019


China – February, 2019


China – April, 2019


Progression of ASF in Asia – 1st Cases reported

• China – August, 2018

• Mongolia – January, 2019

• Vietnam –February, 2019

• Cambodia – April, 2019

• North Korea –May, 2019

• Laos – June, 2019


Vietnam – as of June 22, 2019 – 4,408 cases reported


Why Did ASF Spread so Fast in Asia?

Similar industry structure as US pig industry in 80’s and 90’s Many small pig farms

Big pig farms being built rapidly

Industry very fragmented

Large amount of pig movements around the country

Biosecurity is a concept but implementation is lacking

SDState U; K-State U;


African Swine Fever preparedness: Threat to USAPork Board integrated actions

Threats identified include:

Illegal imports of pig-products

Feed and constituent imports

Others include:

• Swill feeding in some States

• Wild boar and tick populations

Preparedness:

Includes USDA APHIS FAD PReP

Border controls

Feed import risk assessment tool

Info-webinars on key messages.

Research:

Feed risks and mitigation

Infectious dose studies

Vaccine research: determinants for immunity

7 December 2018

Potential cost to US of USD16.5bn in year 1.


Impact of ASF in Asia

41.24 40.99 40.61

38.15

34.78

31.66 30.87 30.43

25.00

28.00

31.00

34.00

37.00

40.00

43.00

Monthly sow herd size in past one year (million heads)

Sow herd size decreased about 10 million heads since ASF outbreaks in China

Source: Boyar

*First outbreak

410.86 409.43 399.49

399.05

367.68

350.29

320.71315.80

306.58

270.00

300.00

330.00

360.00

390.00

420.00

Monthly pig inventory in past one year (million heads)

The numbers include commercial pigs, breeding pigs & piglets.

Source: Boyar

Total pig inventory decreased about 100 million heads since ASF outbreaks in China

46.00

48.00

50.00

52.00

54.00

56.00

58.00

60.00

Monthly slaughter pigs marketed in past one year (million heads)

Monthly slaughter pigs marketed decreased about 9 million since ASF outbreaks in China

57.58

48.10

57.47 market in advance for CNY

Source: Boyar

The numbers exclude by-products & culled sows

15.05

10.36

13.82

11.94

15.05

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

3.00

5.00

7.00

9.00

11.00

13.00

15.00

17.00

Piglet price,¥/KgLive pig price,¥/Kg Pig prices by month

Hog/Corn Ratio Live pig price,RMB/kg

Break-even point* Piglet price(20Kg),RMB/Kg

China monthly pig price since 2018

Source: Boyar, Zhue

*Break-even point(6.0) is used to help evaluate the profitability in pig production. If hog-corn price ratio is higher than the break-even point ,it commonly indicates profits are being made.

Live pig weight:110-120kg

Monthly Porka Export & Import_ 2018.01-2019.04

a Fresh, chilled & frozen pork

Source: China Customs, Boyar

92.5982.95

91.44

125.55

81.49

127.22

136.52

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

Export volumeImport volume2011-2018 Pork Export & Import in China (Thousand Tons)

Import

Export


How Bad Will the Shortage of Pork Be?

• Rabobank Q2 quarterly report estimates production losses of 25-35%

• USDA estimates 5% decline in pork production

• FAO estimates 10% decline in pork production

• An Unofficial survey covering 5,646 farms throughout China conducted in 2019 Q1 indicated that 35.97% farms had exited the pig farming and sow inventory was down by 54.11%.

• ASF is NOT contained !!!!


What Will Consumers Do?

• Pork consumption in China has fallen – concern about food safety

• Pork prices are rising and expected to continue rising

• Consumers are switching to poultry and eggs which are reflected in recent price increases

• Rabobank expects Chinese consumers will reduce total animal protein consumption in 2019 and 2020

• Will consumers return to pork when shortages are filled or will there be a permanent change in choice of protein?

Iowa Swine Day

June 27, 2019

African Swine Fever:An Update from the Other Side of the World

Documents

Outline - Iowa State University34.78 31.66 30.87 30.43 25.00 28.00 31.00 34.00 37.00 40.00 43.00 Monthly sow herd size in past one year (million heads) Sow herd size decreased about