Outline Prisoners’ Dilemma Security Dilemma Structural realism (Waltz) Structure forms a wedge...
32
Outline Prisoners’ Dilemma Security Dilemma Structural realism (Waltz) Structure forms a wedge between intentions and outcomes Why relative gains matter Three types of interactions among states Implications of realism for international relations Review of realism
Outline Prisoners’ Dilemma Security Dilemma Structural realism (Waltz) Structure forms a wedge between intentions and outcomes Why relative gains matter
Outline Prisoners Dilemma Security Dilemma Structural realism
(Waltz) Structure forms a wedge between intentions and outcomes Why
relative gains matter Three types of interactions among states
Implications of realism for international relations Review of
realism
Slide 2
Prisoners Dilemma How structures can prevent actors from
getting their desired outcomes How individuals pursuing clear
incentives in pursuit of self-interest leads them to behave in ways
that lead them NOT to best achieve those self-interests Examples in
international relations: Arms races, trade wars, pollution
problems
Slide 3
Rows perspective COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect)
ROW Silence (Cooperate) R gets 2 yrR gets 10 yr Confess (Defect) R
gets 0 yrR gets 5 yr
Slide 4
Columns perspective COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect)
ROW Silence (Cooperate) C gets 2 yrC gets 0 yr Confess (Defect) C
gets 10 yrC gets 5 yr
Slide 5
Overall game COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect) ROW
Silence (Cooperate) C gets 2 yr R gets 2 yr C gets 0 yr R gets 10
yr Confess (Defect) C gets 10 yr R gets 0 yr C gets 5 yr R gets 5
yr
Slide 6
Rows perspective COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect)
ROW Silence (Cooperate) R gets 2 yrR gets 10 yr Confess (Defect) R
gets 0 yrR gets 5 yr What should Row do?
Slide 7
Rows perspective COLUMN Confess (Defect) ROW Silence
(Cooperate) R gets 10 yr Confess (Defect) R gets 5 yr First, assume
Column confessed. What should Row do?
Slide 8
Rows perspective COLUMN Confess (Defect) ROW Silence
(Cooperate) R gets 10 yr Confess (Defect) R gets 5 yr If Column
confessed, Row clearly prefers to Confess.
Slide 9
Rows perspective COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) ROW Silence
(Cooperate) R gets 2 yr Confess (Defect) R gets 0 yr Now, assume
Column stayed silent. What should Row do?
Slide 10
Rows perspective COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) ROW Silence
(Cooperate) R gets 2 yr Confess (Defect) R gets 0 yr If Column
stayed silent, Row still prefers to Confess.
Slide 11
Rows perspective COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect)
ROW Silence (Cooperate) R gets 2 yrR gets 10 yr Confess (Defect) R
gets 0 yrR gets 5 yr So, no matter what Column does, Row prefers to
Confess!
Slide 12
Columns perspective COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect)
ROW Silence (Cooperate) C gets 2 yrC gets 0 yr Confess (Defect) C
gets 10 yrC gets 5 yr What should Column do?
Slide 13
Columns perspective COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect)
ROW Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect) C gets 10 yrC gets 5 yr
First, assume Row confessed. What should Column do?
Slide 14
Columns perspective COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect)
ROW Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect) C gets 10 yrC gets 5 yr If
Row confessed, Column clearly prefers to Confess.
Slide 15
Columns perspective COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect)
ROW Silence (Cooperate) C gets 2 yrC gets 0 yr Confess (Defect)
Now, assume Row stayed silent. What should Column do?
Slide 16
Columns perspective COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect)
ROW Silence (Cooperate) C gets 2 yrC gets 0 yr Confess (Defect) If
Row stayed silent, Column still prefers to Confess.
Slide 17
Columns perspective COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect)
ROW Silence (Cooperate) C gets 2 yrC gets 0 yr Confess (Defect) C
gets 10 yrC gets 5 yr So, no matter what Row does, Column prefers
to Confess!
Slide 18
Overall game COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect) ROW
Silence (Cooperate) C gets 2 yr R gets 2 yr C gets 0 yr R gets 10
yr Confess (Defect) C gets 10 yr R gets 0 yr C gets 5 yr R gets 5
yr BUT, since both Column and Row confess, they end up both getting
5 years,
Slide 19
Overall game COLUMN Silence (Cooperate) Confess (Defect) ROW
Silence (Cooperate) C gets 2 yr R gets 2 yr C gets 0 yr R gets 10
yr Confess (Defect) C gets 10 yr R gets 0 yr C gets 5 yr R gets 5
yr BUT, since both Column and Row confess, they end up both getting
5 years, even though they both would prefer 2 years!
Slide 20
Nuclear arms race Soviets Dont Build Nukes Build Nukes US Dont
Build Nukes Sovs secure Arms Control US secure Sovs super-secure US
overrun Build Nukes Sovs overrun US super-secure Sovs insecure/poor
Arms Race US insecure/poor BUT, since both US and Sovs build nukes,
they end up insecure AND poor even though they would prefer greater
security at less cost
Slide 21
Slide 22
Causes of Security Dilemma Anarchy/self-help structure of intl
system Lack of trust Misperception and miscommunication Ambiguity
regarding offense/defense of military forces and actions
Slide 23
Aspects of PD & Security Dilemma Relative gains concerns
Even if only absolute gains concerns, cooperation still difficult
Role of trust Role of iteration Role of external sanctions Role of
number of actors Role of information Role of diffuse
reciprocity
Slide 24
Structural realism Structure forms wedge between intentions and
outcomes people do not get what they strive for Structure composed
of: Ordering principle anarchy Relative capabilities distribution
of power Structure dictates outcomes Relative gains concerns
dominate
Slide 25
Structure as a wedge What we expect (and dont need to explain):
Intentions Outcomes
Slide 26
Structure as a wedge What we expect (and dont need to explain):
Intentions Outcomes What we dont expect and must explain:
Intentions Outcomes
Slide 27
Structure as a wedge What we expect (and dont need to explain):
Intentions Outcomes What we dont expect and must explain: Structure
Intentions Outcomes
Slide 28
Structural realism What it explains: Continuity / consistency
of conflict across race, religion, time, culture, technology, etc.
DIFFERS from a claim that war stems from human nature
Slide 29
Why relative gains matter Country ACountry B No trade100M GDP
Trade pact (year 1) 120M GDP130M GDP Trade pact (year 2) 110M GDP +
100 tanks 110M GDP + 200 tanks War by B on A (year 3) Status (year
4) 0M GDP + 0 tanks 220M GDP + 100 tanks
Slide 30
Three types of interactions among states Harmony Independent
decision-making produces GOOD outcomes Conflict Independent
decision-making produces BAD outcomes Cooperation Interdependent
decision-making produces GOOD outcomes (in context where
independent decision- making WOULD HAVE created bad outcomes)
Slide 31
Implications of Realism for International Relations How
realists interpret and predict the world If states are getting
along, its harmony not cooperation States, being concerned with
relative gains, will not risk interdependent cooperation States may
form international institutions BUT Only accept rules they would
have followed anyway States may comply BUT its because Rules codify
existing or expected future behavior Hegemonic states force them to
Easy cases of coordination games
Slide 32
RealismInstitutionalismDisenfranchised Focus what is being
explained? Conflict Actors who are considered the main actors to
watch? States are primary and act as unitary rational actors Goals
what are the goals of the main actors? Survival, security, and
hence, power Means what means do actors use to achieve their goals?
Military force is usable, effective, and fungible Organizing
Principles how is the international system organized? Anarchy and
self- help Dynamics what does process of international relations
look like? Acquisition and balancing of power