Outlook for Ukraine agriculture: results from AGMEMOD model Guna Salputra (LVAEI) Myrna van Leeuwen...
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Outlook for Ukraine agriculture: results from AGMEMOD model Guna Salputra (LVAEI) Myrna van Leeuwen (LEI) Oksana Golovnya (KNEU) Serhiy Demyanenko (KNEU)
Outlook for Ukraine agriculture: results from AGMEMOD model
Guna Salputra (LVAEI) Myrna van Leeuwen (LEI) Oksana Golovnya
(KNEU) Serhiy Demyanenko (KNEU) International scientific-methodical
conference Legal-organizational Forms of Agri-industrial
Formations: Status, Prospects and the Impact on Rural Development
Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University (KNEU) Faculty of
Economics of Agri-industrial Comlex, Kyiv, November 11-12,
2011
Slide 2
Table of content What is AGMEMOD Objectives and (short) history
Methodology from data handling to output analysis Data and
variables Structure of the model Baseline scenario assumptions
Ukraine agricultural outlook to 2025 for grains and oilseeds, meat,
dairy 2 Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University 11-12
November 2011
Slide 3
AGMEMOD AGriculture MEmber States MODelling Partial equilibrium
Dynamic Recursive Econometrically estimated Multi-commodity markets
and multi-country combined model Incorporates 29 individual country
models 24 EU countries, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Turkey, Ukraine,
Russia. 3 Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University 11-12
November 2011
Slide 4
Objectives of AGMEMOD To make medium term annual projections
and simulations for the main European agricultural sectors in order
to establish a reliable baseline and evaluate measures, programmes
and policies in agriculture at the EU level as well as at the
stand- alone country (Member State, Accession Candidate and
individual neighbouring countries) level with an emphasis on
supply, demand, trade and prices. Vadym Hetman Kyiv National
Economic University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 5
Part I 2001-2005 EU15 country models Organisation of project
Part II 2006-2008 Part III 2009-2010 EU27 combined model Extension
of Partnership Extension with Turkey Part III 2010-2011 Extention
with Russia, Ukraine Endogeous world price EU funds 5 th FP EU
funds 6 th FP History of AGMEMOD IPTS funds Nati- onal funds
Extension Kazakhstan Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University
11-12 November 2011
Slide 6
From data handling to output analysis Compile data on commodity
supply/demand balances and macroeconomic and policy assumptions
Model specification for Ukrainian agricultural situation taking
into account its specific structures and agricultural and trade
policy Estimate/calibrate the specified equations with Eviews and
transfer into the AGMEMOD GAMS framework Run, solve and validate
the model Generate baseline and scenario analysis 6 Vadym Hetman
Kyiv National Economic University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 7
From data handling to output analysis 7 Vadym Hetman Kyiv
National Economic University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 8
Data and variables in AGMEMOD Endogenous variables Prices
Supply/demand balances production, consumption, stocks and trade
Exogenous variables Macroeconomic indicators GDP, population,
inflation rate, exchange rates UAH/USD and UAH/EUR Agricultural
policy indicators intervention prices payments per
ha/animal/production input subsidies production quota Trade policy
indicators import and export duties Import and export quotas and
tariffs quota tariff rates 8 Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic
University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 9
AGMEMOD Ukraine model structure 9 Vadym Hetman Kyiv National
Economic University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 10
Baseline narratives for Ukraine Projections based on:
historical trends taking account of the world market, macroeconomic
and agricultural policy environment to 2025 as far as known at this
moment Status-quo situation up to 2025: macro-economic projections
(population, GDP, inflation, exchange rates) for Ukraine
continuation of specific Ukrainian agricultural policy instruments
continuation of trade policy of Ukraine no assumptions on ongoing
Doha Development Round of WTO FAPRI April 2011 world prices
incorporated 10 Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University
11-12 November 2011
Slide 11
UA baseline outlook Grains and oilseeds 11 Vadym Hetman Kyiv
National Economic University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 12
Soft wheat: competitive UA price compared to world and EU price
12 Soft wheat price (/100kg) Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic
University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 13
Rapeseeds: UA price below world and EU price 13 Rapeseeds price
(/100 kg) Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University 11-12
November 2011
Slide 14
UA baseline: grains and oilseeds Area harvested: total grains
area harvested projected to show moderate increase 80% of grains
area is allocated to soft wheat, barley and maize total oilseeds
area harvested projected to grow in reaction on UA is becoming an
important rapeseeds producer and exporter to EU countries due to
increasing biodiesel demand soybeans area would grow: UA is a
protein-deficient country and soybean meals demand is expected to
grow in answer on the actual rise of investments into meat and
dairy sectors 14 Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University
11-12 November 2011
Slide 15
Soft wheat: production mainly driven by yield grow, slightly
increase of wheat area harvested 15 Soft wheat (mio tons) Vadym
Hetman Kyiv National Economic University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 16
Barley: UA belongs to main barley exporters (80% to Middle
East); higher feed use demand from increasing beef and poultry
sectors 16 Barley (mio tons) Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic
University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 17
Rapeseeds: higher production expected as answer on higher
demand for biodiesel (eg from EU); increasing net-export position
17 Rapeseeds (mio tons) Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic
University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 18
UA baseline outlook Livestock and meat 18
Slide 19
Beef: UA price follows the world price; it is slightly
declining due to increasing self-sufficiency rate; UA is
net-exporter 19 Beef price (/100kg)
Slide 20
Pork: UA price close to EU price and significantly above world
price; import tariffs; UA is net-importer of pork 20 AGMEMOD
workshop, Brussels, 13/14 September 2011
Slide 21
Poultry: UA price follows the world price; UA price is below
the world and EU prices; UA has turned into a net-exporter of
poultry 21 Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University 11-12
November 2011
Slide 22
Beef: increase of beef production, important factor -
increasing slaughter weight 22 Beef (1000 tons) Vadym Hetman Kyiv
National Economic University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 23
Pork: import tariffs prevent influence from ROW; UA expected to
remain net-importer con 23 Pork (1000 tons) Vadym Hetman Kyiv
National Economic University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 24
Poultry: 70% of production is concentrated into 2 vertically
integrated companies; significant investments in more integration
expected; UA was net-importer to 2008, but has turned into a
net-exporter 24 Poultry (1000 tons)
Slide 25
UA baseline outlook Milk and dairy 25
Slide 26
Milk: price lower than EU price 26 Milk price (/100kg)
Slide 27
Butter: domestic price follows same patterns as world and EU
prices, but at lower level 27
Slide 28
Cheese: UA price lower than world and EU prices; slightly
increasing due to increasing demand 28 Vadym Hetman Kyiv National
Economic University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 29
Butter: stable production and domestic use projected; declining
domestic use due to stable cons/head, but decreasing population;
this enforces UA net-export position 29 Butter (1000 tons) Vadym
Hetman Kyiv National Economic University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 30
Cheese: projected production increase (1%/year) linked to
projected higher milk production; yearly 1.7% rise in cheese
cons/cap; UA keeps net-export position but with declining tendency
30 Cheese (1000 tons) Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic
University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 31
Conclusions on baseline outlook UA is competitive partner on
world crop markets and under baseline is projected to remain
net-exporter of grains and oilseeds UA milk production expected to
increase, which leads to higher beef production as well UA is
projected to remain net-importer of pork; relatively high domestic
price compared to other meats UA is projected to remain a
net-exporter of dairy products with a movement towards production
of cheese and fresh products (higher value products) 31 Vadym
Hetman Kyiv National Economic University 11-12 November 2011
Slide 32
Thank you for attention More information:
www.agmemod.eu,www.agmemod.eu 32 Vadym Hetman Kyiv National
Economic University 11-12 November 2011