Overall Activities in FY 2017-2018

Toshihiko MasuiNational Institute for Environmental Studies

The 24th AIM International WorkshopOhyama Memorial Hall, NIES, JapanNovember 5-6, 2018

The 23rd AIM International Workshop at NIESNovember 27-28, 2017

Brief History of AIM and its application

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AR6SAR TAR AR4 AR5 SR1.5SRES

Developmentof Sustainable

Low/Zero-CarbonSociety

EMF IAMC International model comparison

Eco-Asia

Japan mid target / INDC

MA

AIM/Air

Snapshot tool & ExSS

AIM/Climate

AIM/CGE [Global]

AIM/CGE [Japan]

Carbon tax policy assessemnt in Japan based on AIM/Enduse and CGE

Long-term GHG emissions scenarios IPCC SRES / RCPs / SSPs

AIM/Enduse [Japan] and application to Asian countries

AIM/Enduse [Global]

2007

2008

Impact assessment models

2018

FAR

UNEP/GEO

Long-term LCS

COP3 COP21COP8

NIES 4th 5-yr planNIES 3rd 5-yr planNIES 2nd 5-yr planNIES 1st 5-yr plan

2100

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

2050

2015

2016

2017

2009

2010

2020

2030

2040

1999

2000

2001

2002

2011

2012

2013

2014

2003

2004

2019

2005

2006

LLGHG&SLCP(-FY2018)

Asia LCS Project(-FY2013)

Long-term strategiesStart of AIM

Project (FY1990-)

Japan LCS Project(-FY2008)

AIM TrainingWS (FY1997-)

COP Side Event(FY2005-)

SATREPS (-FY2015)

AIM Workshop(FY1995-)

Fukushima

JCMBOCM-MRV

LoCARNet

Low-Carbon Vision

LCS-RNetJapan UK JointProject (-FY2007)

Long-term Low-carbon Vision by MOEJhttp://www.env.go.jp/press/103822/713.pdf

• Background: “Simultaneous solution” of economic and social problems such as population decrease and aging issue etc., and climate change• Contribution to global reduction as well as domestic reduction• Innovation (on technology, socioeconomic system and lifestyle) is the key

• Key actions to reduce GHG by 80% by 2050• Energy efficiency, • Low-carbon energy supply, and• Switch to low-carbon energies in end-use

• Taking into account "Carbon budget"• Avoiding "Lock-in" effects• Introducing "Carbon Pricing" as a policy to strengthen market

competitiveness

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Sectoral challenges to zero emission- Results from AIM/Enduse [Japan]

• Power sector requires large-scale transformation.• Difference between net-zero and 80% reduction is moderate in the buildings and

industry sector.• Buildings sector needs to be almost decarbonized even in 80% reduction.

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Sectoral direct CO2 emissions

Oshiro, K., Kainuma, M., & Masui, T. (2017). Transformation of Japan’s energy system to attain net-zero emission by 2050. Carbon management

Recent activities related to Japan's long-term strategy

• At Council on Investments for the Future (June 2018), "achieving growth through investments in energy and the environment" was discussed (http://japan.kantei.go.jp/98_abe/actions/201806/_00013.html). • From obligatory measures in response to the Government’s initiatives,

to the accelerated virtuous cycle between the environment and growth, and encouraged technological innovations led by businesses

• Long-Term Strategy under the Paris Agreement as Growth Strategy (Aug. 2018-)(https://japan.kantei.go.jp/98_abe/actions/201808/_00011.html)• Measures against global warming are no longer a cost for companies. They are

a source of competitiveness. Companies that actively fight against environmental issues attract funds from all around the world, enabling them to prepare for the next phase of their growth and take further measures. This change, which can truly be called a virtuous cycle between the environment and growth, has spread throughout the world at an amazing pace in the past five years or so.

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5th Strategic Energy Plan

• On July 3 2018, the Cabinet approved the 5th Strategic Energy Plan as the basis for the orientation of Japan's new energy policy towards 2030 and further towards 2050.http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2018/0703_002.html• Towards 2030: To reduce emission of greenhouse gases by 26%

• To achieve energy mix target• Currently halfway to the target• Deliberate promotion• Realistic initiatives• Intensify and enhance measures

• Towards 2050: Toward reducing GHGs by 80% • Challenges towards energy transitions and decarbonisation

• Possibility and uncertainty• Ambitious multiple track scenario• Pursue every option• Choose priorities by scientific review

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Climate Change Adaptation Act was made public in June 2018, and will be put into practice in December 2018

Session 6 & 7

14http://www.env.go.jp/en/earth/cc/adaptation/mat01.pdf

Adaptation Program was started in NIES to support AP-PLAT (Asia-Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Platform)Announced the launch of AP-PLAT at COP22

Session 6 & 7

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th 21st 22nd 23rd 24th 25th 26thLCS-RNet

LoCARNet

2-1704: MunicipalLCS

(2017-2019)

SATREPS: Low carbon city(2010-2014)

t 5-yr plan 2nd 5-yr plan 3rd 5-yr plan 4th 5-yr plan

2-1702: PA & SDGs(2017-2019)

S-3: Low carbon Japan(2004-2008)

S-6: Low carbon Asia(2009-2013)

S-12: SLCP(2014-2018)

S-4: Climate change impact inJapan

(2005-2009)

S-8: Climate change impact inJapan

(2010-2014)

S-14: Mitigation & adaptation(2015-2019)

2-1802: SSP Japan(2018-2020)

S-10: Global climate change risk(2012-2016)

B54: Mitigation andadaptation

(2005-2007)

A-0808: Integratedscenario

(2008-2010)

2A-1103: Mitigationin Japan & world

(2011-2013)

2-1402: Long-termmitigation

(2014-2016)

Present and Previous Research Projects (Environment Research and Technology Development Fund, MOEJ)

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What is the next?

Japan・Mid/Long-term

80% red/net zero emis.

Global・Long-term

2/1.5 oC target

Social issues confronted in Japan

Sustainable development

Mitigation models for national scale

analyses

Mitigation and environmental

models for global analyses

Implication of LCS policies on other

social issues

Mitigationtargets

Theme 1 (NIES)Global climate policy analyses

Theme 2 (NIES)・3 (MHIR)Japanese mitigation policy analyses

Global scenarios consistent with Paris agreement

and SDGs

Domestic mitigation scenarios consistent with global scenarios

Tooldevelopment

Proposition of integrated

scenarios

International model comparis

on projects

IPCC / ipbes etc

Collaboration with France

and Germany

Various stakehold

ers

ERTDF 2-1702: Integrated Analyses of Climate Policies for Simultaneous Realization of the Paris Agreement and the SDGs (Dr. K. Takahashi)

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ERTDF 2-1711: Low Carbon Re-development Planning of Municipalities: Development and Application of Analytical Models coupling Resources and Energy Use (Dr. S. Ashina)1. Development of planning methodology and analytical models for designing Low Carbon &

Resilient city coupling resources and energy use.2. Application of the methodology and models to municipalities in Japan.3. Development of simplified model and guidelines those can be utilized by municipalities.

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Transport Residential Infrastructure Energy SupplyLow Carbon City Design Tool

Resource Flow and Stock Analysis• Determining flow and

stocks of buildings

(ST3: Nagoya U.)

Energy System Design in Region• Spatial location of

energy infrastructure

(ST4: Tohoku U.)

Population and CO2 Mapping• Development of city

design and population and distribution by GIS

(ST2: NIES)

Holistic analysis for low carbon city• Designing strategies for

low carbon city

(ST1 :NIES)

Tier

1Ti

er 2

Tier

3

Development of Simplified Tool• Analyzing countermeasures and technologies those need

to be implemented toward the target• Showing results immediately after setting scenarios (ST1: NIES)

Residential and commertial sectorIntroduction of simplified methods for assessing theperformance of buildingsSpread technologies of insulated houses and buildingsSpread insulated houses and buildlingsIntroduce a system for labeling houses and buildingsRevice the top-runner standardsSpread the use of energy efficient household appliancesSpread the use of energy efficient office appliancesIntroduce solar water heating appliances

AgricultureIntroducing labeling of farm productsIncrease consumer awareness of low-carbon farm productsEncourage the consumption of seasonal foodsSpread energy efficient devices in agriculture

IndustryIntroduce a CO2 emission disclosure system by eachcompany and officeEstablish CO2 emission disclosure system on the entire

dSpread energy efficient devices in industryFuel shift to gas in industryPromote electrification in industrySpread steel furnaces installed with CCS

Passenger transportationChange the city structure by revising land useIntroduce a system for drawing up intensive land use andtransport plans together with citizensPromote the concentration of houses, etc. in the center ofCreate a system of preferential treatment for low-carbonvehiclesSpread energy efficient automobilesSpread biomass energy useSpread energy efficient railwaysSpread energy efficient vesselsSpread energy efficient airplanesSpread energy efficient light automobilesConduct technological demonstrations near existinghydrogen supply stationsInvestigate plans for positioning hydrogen supply stationsExpand research and development of fuel cellsIntroduce fuel cell vehicles

Freight transportationRevise the top-runner standardsSpread energy efficient trucksPromote a modal shift in logisticsSpread biomass fuel

Energy supply sectorIntroduce energy efficient thermal power plantsPromote the development of CCS technologies and safetyassessmentEstablish safe and efficient CCS technologiesSpread thermal power plants equipped with CCSPromote lower costs of introducing renewablesRaise the exercise price of renewables and construct awarranty system with a certain guarantee periodIncrease solar and wind power generation

Colors in the figure: red: measure, green: policyWidth of the lines: Bars denote periods for actively spreading the measure or for spreading the policy nationwide. Arrows denote periods formaintaining the ratio of spread of the measure or the period for continuing the policy. Diamonds are the timing for drawing up and enforcingthe policy.

2040 20502010 2020 2030

Guidelines for Planning for Low Carbon City• Simple calculation guideline and manuals for municipalities• Target: Government and Municipal Officers

We submitted new research proposal

• Focusing on Asian countries; • Classification of countries;

• Unconditional and conditional targets of NDCs: Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, ...

• Big countries: China, India, Korea• Diversity of Asia: Nepal, Taiwan, Bhutan, Lao, ...

• Model update• Not only energy related GHGs but also other GHGs such as waste and landuse

change. • Targets

• GHG reduction potential in 2030• GHG reduction in 2050 to achieve 2/1.5 degree target• Consistent mitigation pathway between 2030 and 2050.

• Relationship to Japan• Necessary technologies• Benefits to Japan

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Stakeholder meeting using AIM in Bhutan, on May 17-18, 2018

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Training workshop of AIM/Enduse model at SIIT, Thammasat University, Thailand

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With support from Prof. Bundit Lim, AIM team had a training workshop of AIM/Enduse model at SIIT, TU, Thailand from June 11 to 15, 2018.

Beginners course on 11th June: 11 participants including ONEP, CITC/TGO

Advanced course on 12th – 15th June: 5 participants

In this December, another training workshop on Enduse will be held in Bhopal.

Training workshop of AIM/CGE model at SIIT, Thammasat University, Thailand

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With support from Prof. Bundit Lim, AIM team had a training workshop of AIM/CGE model at SIIT, TU, Thailand from June 26 to July 5, 2018.

Discussion with policymakers in Thailand and JICA

CGE model development for Thailand, Nepal and Bhutan

At Session 9, we will discuss the next direction of AIM

[Background]• Present research projects come to end in march 2020. • We may fail to get new research fund. [Discussion]• About next research issues.

• Scientific perspective: What is new?• Models• Issues

• Environmental perspective: What is useful to solve real problems in each country?• Taking into account reality• Bridging the gap between real world and ideal world• SDGs and other socio-economic issues

[Note]• If we cannot get the enough research fund, the next AIM workshop will be held before

summer in 2019 to discuss the future AIM activities more intensively.

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We wanted the better life.

affluence

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We believed this way is right direction...

affluence

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But this way leads to destruction ahead.

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We must turn around.

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... and look for another way.

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Right way can be found.

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Right way may be circular one. That is "Transition."

well-being andsustainability

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Let's discuss toward better Asia & World!

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