Overall activity in FY2014-2015 and future research plan

Toshihiko MASUINational Institute for Environmental Studies

masui@nies.go.jphttp://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.html

The 21st AIM International WorkshopOhyama Memorial Hall, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

November 13-14, 2015

Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)

Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is an integrated assessment model to assess mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions and impact/adaptation to avoid severe climate change damages. The model is extended to assess sustainable development policies together with Asian researchers. http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/

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at the 20th AIM International Workshop in 2015

Brief History of AIM and its application

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1990

1994

1997

2000

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2020

2050

2100

2002

2005

AIM/Enduse [Japan] and application to Asian countries

1995

Impact Assessment Models

2001

Low Carbon

& Sustainable

Society

Japan LCS Project(-FY2008) LCS-RNet

Asia LCS Project(-FY2013)

Japan UK JointProject (-FY2007)

COP3 @Kyoto

COP8 @Delhi

AIM TrainingWS (FY1997-)

COP Side Event(FY2005-) SATREPS (-FY2015) Publication

of SRESStart of AIMProject (FY1990-)

AIM Workshop(FY1995-)

Assessment of long-term global scenario using AIM/CGE [Global]AIM/Enduse [Global]

AIM/CGE [Japan]AIM/Air

AIM/Climate

ECO-ASIAEMF IAMC Other Projects

MA

UNEP/GEOIPCC SRES and other long-term scenarios RCP SSP

JPN mid/post2020 target

Carbon tax policy in Japan

2012

BOCM-MRVLoCARNet

Snapshot tool/ExSS

1991

1992

1993

1996

1998

1999

2030

2013

2003

2014

JCM

LLGHG&SLCP(-FY2018)

Fukushima

2015

2016

Model World

Overview of AIM

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Impact/Adaptation Model

Emission Model

【Country】

【Global】

【Enduse model】

【Economic model】

【Account model】

【sequentialdynamics】

【dynamicoptimization】

【Local/City】

Agriculture

Water

Human health

Simple Climate Model

Other Models

future society

Population Transportation Residential

GHG emissions

temperature

【Global】 【National/Local】

feedback

AIM/Impact[Policy]

Burden share Stock-flow

mid-term target

IPCC/WG3

IPCC/WG2

IPCC/integrated scenario

carbon tax

long-term vision

Life-style adaptation

low carbon scenario

Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building, ... Real World

We have been pushed to a perilous positionto achieve Low Carbon Society (2 degree target)

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Research Activities in 2014-2015

• Research Budget– Research Program, NIES

• Climate change research program• Sustainable society research program

– the Environment Research & Technology Development Fund, MOEJ• S-10• S-12• S-14• 2-1402• 2-1404

– SATREPS– JCM, MOEJ– Others

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Research topicsGlobal scale

• Quantification of SSPs• IAMC• ADVANCE• CD-LINKS• EMF30 (SLCP)• EMF33 (Bio&Land)• DDPP• MILES• LCSRNet• ISIMIP• AgMIP

• EU-IMPRESSIONS• CIRCLE• ...

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Research topicsAsia

• SATREPS• LoCARNet• JCM (Joint Crediting Mechanism)• Training workshop• TPM (Tripartite Presidents Meeting; CRAES, NIER & NIES)• SLCP (Short Lived Climate Pollutants)• INCDs for Thailand & Indonesia• Renewable energy assessment in China• Adaptation Initiative (Indonesia)

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Research topicsJapan

• Contribution to INDC• LCS for Tokyo Metropolitan Area toward Olympic games in

2020 and beyond• Renovation from disaster in Fukushima and Tohoku Area• SICAT

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LCSRNet Annual Meeting, ParisJune 15-16, 2015

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LoCARNet Annual Meeting in Johor Bahru, MalaysiaOctober 11-13, 2015

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Symposium on DDPP 2015, TokyoOctober 29, 2015

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Training workshop for Enduse and CGE, NIESNovember 5-11, 2015

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Activities in FY 2016

• In FY2016, continuing many research projects. – Not only modeling & simulation but also implementation of

results to achieve Low carbon society

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We have been pushed to a perilous position to achieve Low Carbon Society (2 degree target).

Schedule of the 21st AIM International Workshop

• November 13, 2015– 9:00-9:30 Session 1: Opening Session– 9:30-10:10 Session 2: Impact and Adaptation Studies (1)– 10:25-11:40 Session 3: Impact and Adaptation Studies (2)– 12:30-14:00 Session 4: Poster session

"voting best poster"– 13:00-13:20 Welcome Address by Prof. Akimasa Sumi,

President of NIES– 14:30-15:30 Session 5: JCM (1)– 16:00-17:00 Session 6: JCM (2)– 17:15 Bus will leave NIES– 18:00-20:00 Reception at Watami in BiVi (Tsukuba Center)

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Schedule of the 21st AIM International WorkshopSession 5: JCM (1)

14:30-14:45 Overall activity of JCMMr. Go Hibino and Mr. Kazuya Fujiwara (MHIR, Japan)

14:45-15:00 Presentation from Indonesia (1) IPBProf. Rizaldi Boer and Dr. Lukytawati Anggraeni (IPB, Indonesia)

15:00-15:15 Presentation from Indonesia (2) ITBProf. Retno Gumilang Dewi, Prof. Ucok WR Siagian, Mr. Bintang Budi Yuwono,and Mr. Iwan Hendrawan (ITB, Indonesia)

15:15-15:30 Discussion

Coffee BreakSession 6: JCM (2)

16:00-16:15 Thailand’s INDC 2030 and Peak CO2 Scenarios in 2050Prof. Bundit Limmeechokchai, Mr. Puttipong Chunark and Mr. Piti Pita (SIIT, Thailand)

16:15-16:30 Climate change mitigation strategies from energy and AFOLU sectors in NepalProf. Ram Shrestha (AITM, Nepal)

16:30-16:45 Presentation from MalaysiaProf. Chin Siong Ho (UTM, Malaysia)

16:45-17:00 Discussion16

Schedule of the 21st AIM International Workshop

• November 14, 2015– 8:30 Bus will leave Hotel Okura– 9:00-10:20 Session 7: Special lectures on Integrated

Assessment Model in the Future– 10:20-10:40 Photo Session– 10:40-12:20 Session 8: Global Model Analysis– 13:00-14:20 Session 9: China Model Analysis– 14:40-16:00 Session 10: Asian Model Analysis– 16:20-17:20 Session 11: Japan Model Analysis– 17:20-17:30 Session 12: Closing session– 18:00-20:00 Dinner at Chimney– 20:00 Bus will leave NIES

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Schedule of the 21st AIM International Workshop

• November 15, 2015– 8:30 Bus will leave Hotel Okura

[Detailed schedule will be fixed soon]– Malaysia– Thailand and Nepal– Indonesia– China– India

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Presentation files will be saved at the following server.

• https://fxs.nies.go.jp/• ID: aim_ws_2015• PW: 1WVE9DqS

Wi-Fi access• SSID: AIM_WS_21• Password: !S^_k-JB

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Please enjoy discussions and promote good fellowship through modeling works.