Overview from the IPCC assessments on

climate change impacts and adaptations

Mark Howden and many others

ANU Climate Change Institute

Vice Chair, IPCC Working Group II

ANU CCI / ANU ECI

UNFCC goals (paraphrased)

UNFCCC Article 2:

Prevent dangerous anthropogenic

interference with the climate system so as to

allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, ensure

that food production is not threatened and

enable economic development to proceed

in a sustainable manner.

ANU CCI / ANU ECI

Climate change impacts happening everywhere

ANU CCI / ANU ECI

Warm water coral reefs already suffering

Observations:Loss of live coral cover due to various drivers

WGII Box CC-CR

ANU CCI / ANU ECI

Globally, climate change is already affecting

crop yields

Porter et al. 2014

ANU CCI / ANU ECI

Sea levels are rising

NASA 2015

Sea leve

l change (

m)

0

1

2

ANU CCI / ANU ECI

More emissions, more impacts

ANU CCI / ANU ECI

Fisheries displaced and changed production

CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-2060 COMPARED TO 2001-2010, SRES A1B, 2°C warming of global surface T0.7°C warmer Sea Surface T)

<50% -21 – 50% -6 – 20% -1 – 5% No data 0 – 4% 5 – 19% 20 – 49% 50 – 100% >100%

ANU CCI / ANU ECI

Food security increasingly challenged

Porter et al. 2014

ANU CCI / ANU ECI NASA 2015

Sea leve

l change (

m)

0

1

2

Rising sea levels increasingly of concern

ANU CCI / ANU ECI

Sea level rise has potentially large impacts

The maps show areas to be flooded with sea levels rising by 30 cm, 50 cm and 1 m

respectively - Figures: Courtesy of the Vietnam Academy for Water Resources

0.3m 0.5m 1.0m

ANU CCI / ANU ECI

Long-term sea level rise very challenging

1.5°C

~2°C

~

Global mean temperature

change (°C)

Lo

ng

-te

rm s

ea

-le

ve

l rise

(m)

>7m when the

atmosphere last had 400

ppm CO2 3-5 Mya

5-9m during the last

interglacial 125 000 ya, at

0.7-2°C above pre-

industrial

Paleo-observations:

ANU CCI / ANU ECI

• Rapid and substantial net emission reductions are

needed if we are to avoid substantial impacts

‒ opportunities from these

• Even with the Paris Agreement there will be a need for

significant investment in climate adaptation

• Adaptation benefits: can significantly reduce (but not

always remove) risks and take advantage of

opportunities

• Substantial alignment with disaster risk reduction, the

Sustainable Development Goals and with mitigation

Mitigation and adaptation solutions

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• Regional integration

• Link with the Sustainable Development Goals

• Solutions and adaptive capacity including costs and

economic evaluation

• Decision-making and implementation in relation to

social, cultural, institutional and psychological factors

• Outreach and engagement with the key user

communities (especially policy)

• Extreme events

• Sea level rise

• Integration of adaptation and mitigation

• Avoiding C lock-in, informing transformational change

• GHG removals

Potential areas for the 6th IPCC Assessment

ANU CCI / ANU ECI

IPCC outputs

Activity Date

Special Report on 1.5oC 2018

Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere 2019

Special Report on Climate Change and Land 2019

Methodology Report for National Greenhouse

Gas Inventories2019

Sixth Assessment Reports (Working Group 1, 2,

3 and the Synthesis Report2022

UNFCCC Global Stocktake analyses 2023

Special Report on Cities ? 2024?

www.ipcc.ch

Thankyou

Prof Mark Howden

ANU Climate Change Institute

mark.howden@anu.edu.au

+61 2 6125 7266

Vice Chair, IPCC Working Group II