Rachel Muncrief June 11, 2013 Next 10 Automotive Virtual Summit: Fuel Efficient Truck USA 2013

Overview of International HDV Efficiency Standards

Source: Ward’s Automotive

Geographic Scope: Top Vehicle Markets

§  Top eleven major global vehicle markets –  Most have auto efficiency standards – Some working on truck standards

Slide 2

HDV global regulatory landscape

3

Country/ Region

Regulation Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Japan Fuel economy           Phase 1 regulation implemented starting MY 2015  

United States

GHG/Fuel efficiency

Standard proposal Final rule     Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 #

(mandatory DOT program starts MY 2016)  

      Phase 2#           Phase 2 implementation

China Fuel consumption

Test procedure finalized

Industry standard proposal

Industry standard implemented

National standard adopted

  National Standard implemented starting MY 2015

European Union

CO2 test procedure Technical studies

Impact assessment/ Test procedure finalized

      Reporting requirements followed by Policy implementation?

Canada GHG     Standard proposal

Final rule Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 Phase 2

S. Korea# Fuel efficiency# Technical studies#

Impact assessment#

Test procedure finalized#

Policy implementation (second half of 2015)#

Mexico Fuel efficiency   Proposal   Regulation implemented starting MY 2016 Phase 2

implementation

California End-user purchase reqts

Requirements for new tractors, trailers (2011+)

  Additional reqs. for existing tractors and trailers (<MY 2010)

Additional reqts. for existing trailers and reefers (<MY 2010)

Items in blue are ICCT expectations (not public announcements)

Global HDV Potential – CO2 Reduction

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Japan, Canada, EU Adopted US 2014-2018 HDV China Phase I HDV China Phase II HDV Vehicle Potential (3.5% APR) Global HDV Emissions

§  Early heavy-duty standards (Japan, US, China, etc) slow the emissions rise –  Far greater potential exists to increase truck efficiency over the long-term

Based on ICCT Roadmap project

Regional Considerations for Technology

Slide 5

CHINA •  Diesel price - ~1 €/liter ($4.9/

gal) •  Speed – Trucks typically travel

at lower speeds (43 mph compared to 65 mph in US)

•  Weight – Operate at significantly higher gross weight (108K lbs+ compared to 80K lbs in US).

•  Less advanced engine technology

EUROPE •  Diesel price - ~1.2-1.7 €/liter

($6-8+ / gal.) drives technology & efficient operation

•  Speed limit - 88kph/55 mph speed limit Euro-wide

•  Aero - Cab over engine •  Tires - Supersingles / LRR widely

used •  Idle - European trucks rarely idle

even at truck stops.

US •  Diesel price - ~0.8 €/liter (~

$3.9/gal) •  Speed – High speed,

significant amount of highway operation

•  Length/weight restrictions vary by state.

JAPAN •  Diesel price - ~1.2 €/liter (~$6.1/

gal) •  Small country •  Grade is important •  Shorter distance for intercity driving

Key Policy Drivers

§  Despite clear link between fuel efficiency and operational cost savings, there remains significant market barriers to efficiency technology uptake and penetration –  Uncertain return on investment/payback time –  Split incentives (e.g. trailers) –  Lack of credible information –  Other priorities (e.g. driver retention) –  Technology availability/reliability –  Lack of up front capital

§  Conclusion: Policies are necessary to drive efficiency technologies into the HDV fleet

Slide 6

Japan: “top runner” HDV fuel economy standard

§  November 2005: Japan introduced world’s first fuel economy standard for HDVs

§  Vehicles included –  Commercial vehicles with gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) > 3.5 metric

tons –  Buses with carrying capacity > 11 people

§  Metric: fuel economy = km/liter §  Targets disaggregated by vehicle type, class, and weight §  Most efficient vehicle (“top runner”) in MY 2002 set as baseline

Hybrid vehicles were excluded when determining the top runner §  Manufacturers must meet targets starting in MY 2015 §  Efficiency technologies incorporated into vehicles must be

displayed prominently in catalogs starting in 2006

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Japan: Efficiency targets

§  Both the 2015 average target and relative improvement assume a constant 2002 vehicle sales mix

§  Compliance through simulation modeling with standard inputsà improvements primarily from engines

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Vehicle Type! Vehicle Class!Fuel economy (km/L) !

Improvement (%)!2002 baseline!

!2015 target!

!

Truck#Tractor# 2.67# 2.93# 9.7#

Other truck # 6.56# 7.36# 12.2#Total# 6.32# 7.09# 12.2#

Bus#Urban# 4.51# 5.01# 11.1#

Other bus# 6.19# 6.98# 12.8#Total# 5.62# 6.3# 12.1#

Japan: Test Procedure

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Driving mode (Urban/Interurban driving mode)

Vehicle specifications •  Engine and

transmission specs

•  Standard values used for Cd, Crr, vehicle weight

Conversion Program •  Determine gear-

shift positions •  Calculate engine

speed and torque Engine dynamometer test

Fuel efficiency map Engine Operating Mode

Simulation to determine fuel consumption

China: Industry vs National Standard

§  Industry Standard (Stage 1) –  Proposed in 2011 and adopted in Dec 31, 2011

–  New models must meet standard starting July 1, 2012; existing models July 1, 2014

–  Standard is set at the 90th percentile of the baseline –  Goal: Phasing out most inefficient and chance to collect further data –  Based on 300+ vehicles tested

§  National Standard (Stage 2) –  Proposed September 2012

–  New models must meet standards starting from July 1, 2014; existing models

by July 1, 2015

–  Tightens Industry standard ~10-15%, almost 50% of vehicles tested did not meet limits. (based on further testing)

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Proposed National Standard

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Gross Vehicle Weight (ton)!

Tractor!

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Tractor!

Truck!

City bus!

Dump truck !

Coach!

China: Test Procedure

Slide 12

Medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles

‘Variant’ vehicle ‘Base’ vehicle

Resistance/drag measured or standard

input

Test vehicle on chassis dynamometer

Simulate using modeling software

Run C-WTVC driving cycle

Measurement and Calculation of Fuel Consumption

Engine map and vehicle

data

EU: HDV GHG Labeling

§  Euro VI regulation requires establishing labeling methodology and public information on vehicle performance

–  Potential for standard or other policy to be established once labeling program is in place

§  European Commission leading in-depth studies that will be the foundation of a future HDV labeling program

§  Development and testing of a certification procedure for CO2 emissions, fuel consumption of HDVs

–  Worked with industry and academia to develop VECTO

§  VECTO – simulation applied to whole vehicle CO2 emissions –  Tractor/trailer, regional delivery, Intercity buses –  Current work – validation and proof of concept

§  Preparation of legislation to measure, certify and report HDV CO2 emissions

–  Internal draft under review

Slide 13

EU: Test Procedure

Slide 14

Component testing

Engine

VECTO Simulation Model (mission based

test cycles)

Aerodynamic Drag

Fuel consumption, CO2 emissions

Tires

Transmission/Gear Box

Auxiliaries

Fuel consumption map from engine dynamometer testing

Constant speed on road test

Transmission ratios, transmission losses from OEM specific maps

and default values

Rolling resistance coefficients from tire labels

Auxiliary power demand from generic efficiency maps

Metrics, Reference, and Target Level

Slide 15

Feature Japan U.S. China EU

Metric/ Units Kilometers per liter

Grams CO2 per payload ton-mile and gallons per 1,000 payload ton-miles (short tons)

Liters per 100 kilometers

NA

Reference Fuel Efficiency Level (Tractor-Trailer)

Average for 2002 tractor-trailer with GVW > 20 tons was 1.8 km/l (Daisho 2007)

Average for Class 8 sleeper cab high roof tractor-trailer in 2010 was 9.3 gal/1000 ton-miles (short tons) (2.4 km/l) (EPA and NHTSA 2011a)

1.2, 1.6, and 2.4 km/l for a 49 ton GCW tractor-trailer tested on City, Rural, and Motorway segments (CATARC 2010a)

Average of 3.27 km/l for all long-haul trucks in 2010 (TU Graz 2011)

Target Fuel Efficiency (Tractor-Trailer)

2.01 km/l by 2015 (Daisho 2007) for GVW>20 tons

7.3 gal/1,000 ton-miles (3.06 km/l) by 2014 (short tons) for Class 8 w/ sleeper cab and high roof

42 l/100 km (2.38 km/l) by 2014 for 40-43 tons GCW (AQSIQ 2012)

3.86 km/l found to be cost-effective for long-haul (AEA 2011)

Source: ACEEE work sponsored by ICCT

Segmentation

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Gross  Veh

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 tons)  

1) Further divided into four subsegments by maximum payload, 2) Further divided into six subsegments by roof height and cab type, 3) Further divided into three subsegments by roof height, 4) Each EU segment further divided into two to seven subsegments by axle, chassis, and body configuration and weight

§  Complex segmentation across regions –  Segmentation by vehicle type, vehicle weight, vehicle use

Source: ACEEE work sponsored by ICCT

Test Procedure Comparison

Feature U.S./ Canada Japan China EU*

Test Cycles and Weighting

Transient 5%, 55-mph cruise 9% and 65-mph cruise 86% for sleeper cab tractor trucks.

Transient 90% Highway (with grade) 10% for heavy tractor trucks

Tractor trucks: Road (rural) 10% Highway 90%

Mission-based cycles (may include road grade, altitude, stops)

Test Payload 19 short tons (17.2 tons) 20 tons (half payload) Full payload (maximum allowed) Average payload

Test Method Simulation using standard engine and transmission; standard trailer depending on roof height

Simulation using engine fuel consumption map and transmissions specs; standard trailer

Chassis test required for baseline. Simulation or chassis for improved model

Simulation based on actual vehicle values

Aerodynamic drag (Cd)

Manufacturer testing to determine Cd (coastdown preferred)

Standard value

Manufacturer testing to determine Cd (coastdown preferred) or standard value

Manufacturer testing to determine Cd (constant speed test preferred)

Rolling Resistance (Crr)

OEM or tire manufacturer testing to determine Crr for steer and drive tire

Standard value Manufacturer testing to determine Crr, or default values used

Standard values from tire labels

Slide 17 * Technical studies only to date

Source: ACEEE work sponsored by ICCT

Efficiency Improvements Captured

  Japan U.S. and Canada* China EU #

Engine Yes Through separate engine standards Yes Yes

Transmission Somewhat Optional; by demonstration outside of standard protocol

Yes Yes

Hybridization Unclear By demonstration outside of standard protocol Yes Yes

Aerodynamic drag, rolling resistance No Yes Yes** Yes

Trailer No No No No

* Potentially Mexico as well ** Option to use default values # Refers to ongoing government research and testing protocols; No standards in place

18 Source: ACEEE work sponsored by ICCT

Summary

§  Policies are necessary to close gap on technology potential

§  Major markets are working on HDV efficiency standards or reporting requirements

§  Very little international alignment on standards to date

§  Further information on the web: –  http://www.theicct.org/international-alignment-fuel-efficiency-

standards-heavy-duty-vehicles –  http://www.theicct.org/proposed-china-national-fuel-

consumption-standards-new-commercial-hdvs –  www.transportpolicy.net (a joint effort of ICCT and

DieselNet)

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