Overview of Macedonia’s · 2017-04-24 · • April 8th, 1993, Macedonia became the 181st member of the UN • April 1993, Macedonia became a member of the World Bank and the IMF

Overview of Macedonia’s

Economy

U.S. Embassy Skopje

Important events

• September 8th, 1991, a referendum on sovereignty and

independence

• November 17th, 1991, Constitution was adopted

• April 26th, 1992, monetary independence and introduction of

new national currency - Denar

• April 8th, 1993, Macedonia became the 181st member of the

UN

• April 1993, Macedonia became a member of the World Bank

and the IMF

• April 4th, 2003, Macedonia became a member of the WTO

• November 2005, Macedonia became candidate country for

membership in the EU

Demography

• Total area: 25,713 square km

• Total population: 2.0 million

• Growth rate: 0.4%

• Rural: 40.2%

• Urban: 59.8%

Source: State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia

Ethnic composition

Source: Census 2002, State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia

64.18%

2.36%

25.17%

2.66%1.78%

3.85%

Macedonians

Albanians

Turks

Roma

Serbs

Others

Gross Domestic Product (in %)

2005 4.7% 2006 5.1% 2007 6.5% 2008 5.5% 2009 -0.4% 2010 3.4% 2011 2.3% 2012 -0.5% 2013 2.9% 2014 3.6% 2015 3.8% 2016 2.4%

2017 3.0% (projection)

Kosovo crisis

Ethnic conflict


World economic crisis

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

2017

*

GDP per capita (in US$)

2005 3,080 2006 3,380 2007 4,100 2008 4,864 2009 4,599 2010 4,581 2011 5,096 2012 4,726 2013 5,233 2014 5,486 2015 4,850 2016 5,256

Source: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Macedonia

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

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16

Main components

of GDP in 2016 Trade (wholesale and retail)

Mining, quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water supply

Construction

Public administration and defense, compulsory social security, education, health and social work

Real estate activities

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Information and communication

Financial and insurance activities

Professional, scientific, technical activities, administrative services

Arts, entertainment and recreation, other services

13.2

10.3

12.9

7.7

16.7

4.2

6.2


11.4

3.9

2.8

7.7%

13.2%

12.9%

16.7% 6.2%

4.2%

10.3%

3.9% 11.4%

2.8%

Inflation (average rate = period / last year’s period)

* projected

Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

I.201

6 II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

20

16

I.201

7 II III

20

17*

Industrial output (average rate = period / last year’s period)


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

I.201

6 II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

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16

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7 II

Industrial output by branches (% change)


StructureI - II '17

I - II '16

I - II '17

I - II '16

Total 100.00 98.1 -1.9

Manufacturing 82.94 95.9 -4.1

Production of basic metals 2.59 74.8 -25.2

Food production 11.48 94.9 -5.1

Production of wearing apparel 9.60 77.9 -22.1

Production of other non-metallic minerals 6.29 109.0 9.0

Tobacco industry 2.67 77.7 -22.3

Beverages production 4.45 85.5 -14.5

Production of coke and refined petroleum products 1.28 116.2 16.2

Production of electrical equipment 4.88 98.6 -1.4

Production of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 0.70 170.2 70.2

Production of basic pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical preparations 2.79 99.1 -0.9

Production of chemicals and chemical products 2.95 129.3 29.3

Production of rubber products and plastics 5.40 100.7 0.7

Production of leather and other leather products 1.16 71.9 -28.1

Textile industry 3.02 82.8 -17.2

Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply 7.92 119.5 19.5

Mining and quarrying 9.14 94.0 -6.0

Foreign trade

(in million US$)


0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,500

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

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20

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20

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Ja

n-1

7

Feb

-17

Exports Imports

Foreign trade (% change = period / last year’s period)


-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

I.201

6 II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

20

16

I.201

7 II

Exports Imports

Trade balance


-31

-28

-25

-22

-19

-16

-13

-10

-7

-4

-1

2

-3,250

-3,000

-2,750

-2,500

-2,250

-2,000

-1,750

-1,500

-1,250

-1,000

-750

-500

-250

020

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

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Ja

n-1

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Feb

-17

in million US$ (left scale)

Trade balance as % of GDP (right scale)

Top trading partners

(at the end of February 2017, in percent of total)

• Exports

1. Germany = 50.0%

2. Bulgaria = 5.5%

3. Serbia = 3.8%

4. Belgium = 3.7%

5. Greece = 3.5%

6. Italy = 3.2%

7. Romania = 3.2%

• Imports

1. Germany = 11.6%

2. UK = 10.6%

3. Greece = 7.7%

4. China = 6.6%

5. Serbia = 6.3%

6. Italy = 5.1%

7. Turkey = 4.3%


Trade with the USA (on cumulative basis, in million US$)


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

I.201

7

II.2

017

Exports Imports

Current account balance

projected


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

-1300

-1200

-1100

-1000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

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05

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06

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07

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08

20

09

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10

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20

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20

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20

17

Cummulative (in million US$) as % of GDP

Foreign Direct Investment (in million US$)

2006 424.2

2007 699.1

2008 587.0

2009 197.1

2010 211.6

2011 473.5

2012 139.7

2013 334.7

2014 272.5

2015 245.9

2016 395.5


050

100150200250300350400450500550600650700

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

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06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

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20

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20

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20

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20

15

20

16

Foreign exchange reserves

(in million US$) Dec.2004 985.7

Dec.2005 1,331.1

Dec.2006 1,871.0

Dec.2007 2,219.2

Dec.2008 2,106.2

Dec.2009 2,289.8

Dec.2010 2,276.9

Dec.2011 2,666.6

Dec.2012 2,891.4

Dec.2013 2,746.9

Dec.2014 2,962.8

Dec.2015 2,471.2

Dec.2016 2,731.8


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

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Ja

n.1

7

Feb

.17

External Debt


25%28%31%34%37%40%43%46%49%52%55%58%61%64%67%70%73%

800

1,800

2,800

3,800

4,800

5,800

6,800

7,800

8,800

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

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20

06

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07

20

08

20

09

20

10

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16

in million US$ as % of GDP

Budget revenues and expenditures (in million Denar)


0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

XII

.2015

I.201

6 II III

IV V VI

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VII

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XII

.2016

I.201

7 II

Budget revenues Budget expenditures

Budget balance (as % of GDP)

--- projected


-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

Jan

.-1

7

Feb

.-17

201

7

Fiscal performance (February 2017, in million denars)


January - February Index January - February 2017

2016 2017 2017/2016 % share % of plan

Total Budget revenues 25,844 25,864 100.1 100.0 13.8

1. Primary revenues 17,357 17,498 100.8 67.7 13.8

A. Tax revenues 14,883 14,982 100.7 57.9 13.8

- personal income tax 2,035 2,153 105.8 8.3 14.1

- profits tax 1,177 1,276 108.4 4.9 11.0

- VAT 7,742 7,889 101.9 30.5 15.2

- excises 2,869 2,657 92.6 10.3 11.8

- import duties 714 758 106.2 2.9 15.0

B. Non-tax revenues 2,474 2,516 101.7 9.7 14.4

2. Capital revenues 531 89 16.8 0.3 3.4

3. Foreign donations 481 407 84.6 1.6 6.5

Total Budget expenditures 30,301 29,568 97.6 100.0 14.3

1. Current expenditures 28,551 26,696 93.5 90.3 14.9

- wages, salaries and allowances 4,238 4,389 103.6 14.8 16.4

- goods and services 2,520 2,120 84.1 7.2 10.8

- transfers 20,813 19,066 91.6 64.5 15.3

- interest 980 1,121 114.4 3.8 13.6

2. Capital expenditures 1,750 2,872 164.1 9.7 10.7

Financing 4,457 3,674 82.4 19.7

1. Borrowing from abroad 612 499 81.5 2.8

2. Domestic borrowing 3,607 2,468 68.4 13.8

3. Deposits 1,164 1,567 134.6 94.2

4. Repayment of principal (outflow) 926 860 92.9 4.6

Public Debt


20222426283032343638404244464850

1,0001,2501,5001,7502,0002,2502,5002,7503,0003,2503,5003,7504,0004,2504,5004,7505,000

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

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20

07

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09

20

10

20

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16

in million US$ as % of GDP (right scale)

Nominal Weighted Interest Rates


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Dec

.-1

1

Dec

.-1

2

Dec

.-1

3

Dec

.-1

4

Dec

.-1

5

Dec

.-1

6

Jan

.-1

7

Feb

.-17

lending deposit

Nominal Net Wages (in US$)


450

452

454

456

458

460

462

464

I.201

5 II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII

.2015

I.201

6 II III

IV V VI

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VII

I

IX X XI

XII

.2016

I.201

7

Nominal net wage

Unemployment (in percent)

* Source: Labor Force Survey (State Statistical Office)

- 30.4% of the population lived below the poverty line in 2011

- “gray economy” is estimated between 20% and 40% of GDP

185,000

190,000

195,000

200,000

205,000

210,000

215,000

220,000

225,000

230,000I.

201

5 II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII

.20

15

I.201

6 II III

IV V VI

VII

VII

I

IX X XI

XII

.20

16

I.201

7 II

Challenges

• Restore political stability

• Increase transparency and ensure rule of law

• Combat corruption, improve governance, strengthen judiciary

• Pursue fiscal consolidation

• Strengthen linkages between FDI and domestic firms

• Increase private sector’s role in the economy

• Improve skills of labor force; reduce brain drain

• Implement reforms needed for EU and NATO accession

Documents

Overview of Macedonia’s · 2017-04-24 · • April 8th, 1993, Macedonia became the 181st member of the UN • April 1993, Macedonia became a member of the World Bank and the IMF