Overview of Ozone and PM2.5 in the Upper Midwest

Regional Air Quality Workshop

November 17, 2004

Overview

• Current Air Quality (O3, PM2.5, and regional haze)

• Regional Planning Efforts• Schedule• Organization• Preliminary control strategy analyses

Current Air Quality

• O3

• PM2.5

• Regional Haze

8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Areas (Region V)

104 NonattainmentCounties !!!!

8-Hour OzoneTrends

2001-2003

1987-1989

2002-2004

Possible PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas (Region V)

72 NonattainmentCounties !!!!

St. Louis

DetroitChicago/Milwaukee/Gary

PM2.5: Urban v. Regional

urban

regional

urbanregional

urbanregional

Isle Royale National Park, MI

Visibility Requirements

• Section 169A of CAAA of 1977 requires “as a national goal the prevention of any future, and the remedying of any existing, impairment of visibility in Class I areas which impairment results from manmade air pollution.”

• Visibility regulations (July 1, 1999) require “reasonable progress” to achieving natural conditions by the year 2064

Cite: Particulate Matter Science for Policy Makers, NARSTO, February 2003

“One Atmosphere”

Regional Planning Efforts

• Schedule

• Organization

• Preliminary control strategy analyses

Regulatory Schedule

Ozone PM2.5

(Haze)

Nonattainment designations April 15, 2004 Dec 2004Effective: June 15, 2004 February 2005

SIPs due June 2007 Feb 2008

Attainment dates 2009/2010 2010 (2018)

Regional Modeling Schedule200620052004

Round 0 - Base G2002 Sensitivity

Round 5 -DraftAD Plans

Emissions Models Refined

1 Atmosphere Model Develop/Refine

Early CAIR Assess2002 Base E and F

2002 Base Inventory Develop/Refine +Growth/Control Factor Develop/Refine

Round 1 Test-CAIR Reassess & OTB

Round 2 - Base I, FinalOTB 2009-201?

Baselines, & Complex% Reduction Scenarios

Round 4 - Assess ControlMeasure Combinations flexing Round 3 Targets

Round 3 -Find AttainmentLevel Sub-Sector Ranges

Model FinalAttainment Plans

LADCO States

Technical Analyses: Modeling

12 km

36 km

Model: CAMx

Domain/Grid: Eastern U.S.(36 km), Midwest (12 km)

Year: 2002 (full year) - PM/haze, 36 km

2001, 2002, 2003(summer) – O3, 12 km

2009 Base Controls• Current state/local rules to meet 1-hour ozone

requirements (e.g., motor vehicle I/M, reformulated gasoline, and NOx SIP Call)

• Heavy-duty diesel (2007) engine standard/Low sulfur fuel• Federal control programs incorporated into NONROAD

model (e.g., nonroad diesel rule), plus the evaporative Large Spark Ignition and Recreational Vehicle standards

• Federal railroad/locomotive standards• Federal commercial marine vessel engine standards• Tier II/Low sulfur fuel• Title IV for EGUs (Phases I and II)• VOC 2-, 4-, 7-, and 10-year MACT standards• Combustion turbine MACT• Industrial boiler/process heater/RICE MACT

Base (2001-2003) 2009 Base

O3

Base (2001-2003) 2009 Base

PM2.5

Summary

• Regional, multi-pollutant planning approach

• SIPs for ozone (8-hour) and PM2.5 due in mid-2007 and early 2008, respectively

• Need to identify control strategies by late 2005/early 2006

• Technical analyses to support SIP development underway