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NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICESNOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Overview of the Gulf of Mexico
Harmful Algal Bloom
Operational Forecast System (HAB-OFS)
Kate DernerNOAA National Ocean Service
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products & Services
March 16, 2016
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
HAB-OFS Overview
• HAB-OFS Background
• Why it’s needed
• How it developed
• Bulletin Content
• 2015-2016 Bloom
• Improvements & ChallengesPhoto Credit: TPWD, Dave Buzan
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Impacts of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) of
Karenia brevis in the Gulf of Mexico
• HABs=The rapid growth of toxic or nuisance algae
• Impacts of Karenia brevis may include:
o Discolored water
o Death of fish, mammals, reptiles and birds exposed to
toxins
o Human illness- contaminated shellfish and/or
respiratory irritation
o Economic impacts- Reduced seafood sales and/or
coastal tourism
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
• K. brevis blooms have been documented in the GOMX since at least
the 1700s and are most frequent in southwest Florida
• At least one bloom, almost every year for the past 30 years
• Bloom “season” = August 1 to early February
• Blooms last weeks, months or over a year
Gulf of Mexico (GOMX): number of years with
known Karenia brevis blooms 1957-2014
Adapted from figure from Cindy Heil, FWRI http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/HAB_GCOOS_report.pdf
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Coverage of the Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal
Bloom Operational Forecast System
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Operational
Forecast System
• Audience:o Coastal resource managers
o State and federal officials
o Academic and research institutions
o General public (via website)
• Bulletins provide:o Advance detection of new HAB events
o Monitoring of active HABs and descriptions of their location, extent, intensity and observations of associated impacts
o Forecasts
subscribe at: www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab/bulletins
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Bulletin Dissemination Schedule
• Issued twice weekly after the confirmation of a
HAB – (Monday & Thursday)
• Issued once weekly during inactive bloom
periods– (Monday)
• Supplemental bulletins and conditions report
updates issued as necessary
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
NWS Beach Hazard Statements
WFOS
•Tampa Bay
•Miami
•Key West
•Criteria-based:oOnshore HAB
oHigh levels of
respiratory irritation
are forecast by
HAB-OFS
Available from weather.gov
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Gulf of Mexico HAB-OFS
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Variety of Data Types Integrated into
HAB-OFS Bulletin
3. Currents & Winds
1. Satellite Imagery
4. Health Reports
Photo Credits: NOAA, UTMSI, WHOI, CDC, MML
2. Water Samples
Observations
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
• Detection of HABs via Satellite Imagery
• Forecasts:o Respiratory Irritation Impacts
Based on Water Samples, Wind and Satellite Imagery
o Potential for Bloom FormationBased on Season and Wind data
o IntensificationBased on Wind data and Water Samples
o TransportBased on Wind and Current data
HAB-OFS Monitoring and Forecasts
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
• To aid in the analysis, Anomaly Images are produced by NOAA
CoastWatch.
• High anomalies (in yellow) are areas where the daily chlorophyll
concentration is significantly higher than the average for a particular
region.
Gulf of Mexico: Imagery Processing
- --
Chlorophyll-a Daily Image 60-Day Mean Chlorophyll Anomaly
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Texas: Imagery Processing
- --
Chlorophyll-a
Daily Image
60-Day
Mean
Chlorophyll
Anomaly
• High resuspension along the Texas coast results in false positives when the
regular chlorophyll anomaly algorithm is used.
• Resuspension (R667Anomaly image) from CoastWatch is paired with the
Chlorophyll Anomaly image to create the Revised Chlorophyll Anomaly
that we use on the Texas bulletin.
-
Resuspension
(R667Anomaly)
Revised Chlorophyll
Anomaly--
X 200
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Florida: Imagery Ensemble
Chlorophyll
Anomaly
Ensemble
• Ensemble combines the
chlorophyll anomaly with
algorithms that target
specific properties of K.
brevis blooms:
o Backscatter
o Spectral Shape
• Reduces false positives in
southwest Florida.
• FL – Sept 2015
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Forecasts:Level of Respiratory Irritation
≈
=
K. brevis cell
concentrationsBrevetoxin
concentrations
Winds
Respiratory Irritation
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Resolution: Half-county (~30-60 km) or region (TX)
Timing/Duration:
• Highest potential level of respiratory irritation per day
• In the next 3-4 days (through the next bulletin day)
Forecasts:Level of Respiratory Irritation
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
• Upwelling favorable winds promote the accumulation of
cells at the coast:o bloom formation at the coast if bloom has formed offshore
(SW FL)o intensification when there is a developing bloom (SW & NW FL)
Forecasts:
Potential for Bloom Formation & Intensification
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Photo Credit: TGLO
Forecasts:
Bloom Transport
• Bloom movement is predicted
based on observed and forecasted
surface winds and modeled
current data
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
• How do the forecasts compare to observed data?
• For each forecast type, the team routinely
assesses:
o Forecast accuracy (% correct, probability of
detection, threat score false alarm ratio)
o Reliability
o Relative forecast accuracy (skill)
HAB-OFS Monitoring and Forecasts
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09
09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14
Transport Intensification Bloom Formation
Respiratory Irritation
Florida Forecast Accuracy (Percent Correct) 2004-2014
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
2015 -2016 Bloom Season
Texas NW Florida to
Louisiana
Southwest
Florida
•3 separate blooms identified simultaneously in Texas, NW
Florida, and SW Florida in mid-September
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
2015 -2016 Bloom Season
•Up to high concentrations of K. brevis throughout all states
•Received weekly to daily reports of respiratory irritation
from “slight” to “intense” in all regions
•Public inquiries regarding health, bloom duration, impacts
•Shellfish harvesting was impacted across all states
•NWFL bloom extended to AL, MS, and LA
• coordination across states
•Decision support tool for coastal resource managers and
public health officials
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
•Satellite imagery products – ensemble imagery
•More efficient forecasting – respiratory irritation forecast
tool
•Future infrastructure upgrades in development• Improved efficiency
•Make product improvements possible, such as:• Georeferenced PDF
• Interactive web map
Improvements & Challenges
Improvements•Obtaining cell count data and respiratory irritation
observations, particularly outside of FL for forecast
development and validationo Addition of 2 Imaging FlowCytobots in TX
Challenges
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute
Mote Marine Laboratory
Florida Department of Health
Sarasota County Health Department
Collier County Pollution Control & Prevention Department
Alabama Department of Public Health
Mississippi Department of Marine Resources
Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals
Texas Parks and Wildlife Division
Texas Department of State Health Services
Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi
External Partners & Data Providers
NOAA’s CENTER for OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS and SERVICES
Questions
tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hab