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Overview of the Lithuanian NES
project
1
Arvydas Galinis
Laboratory of energy system research [email protected]
Lithuanian Energy Institute
Stages in preparation of the National energy strategy
Scenario analysis of energy sector development and operation
Evaluation of energy security for energy sector development
scenarios
Analysis of macroeconomic impact of energy sector
development scenarios
Preparation of the National energy strategy project
3
Heat
District heat supply
in town i
District heat supply
in town i+1
System of electricity supply
System of fuel
supply
Fuel
Fuel
Fuel
Electricity
Ele
ctri
city
Heat demand
in town i Heat
Heat demand
in town i+1
Country
electricity
demand
Electricity
Provisions of energy policy
External factors
Environmental constrains
Electricity
exchange
with
foreign
countries
Exchange
of
reserve
capacity
with
foreign
countries
Structure of the mathematical model used for analysis of
energy sector development Including
energy
security
Taking into
account
energy
efficiency
measures Based on
MESSAGE
modelling package
Characteristic of the main scenarios analyzed
Factors Basic scenario Integration scenario Isolation scenario Green scenario
I50 I100 G50 G80 G80b Aa Ab Ac Aa Ab Ac Aa Ab Ac
Final demand Base Base
Fuel prices Moderate growth Moderate growth
CO2 prices WEO New energy policy WEO New energy policy
RES level Not specified 30% (2030), 55% (2050) 35% (2030), 65% (2050)
VNPP existance Not specified No Yes No Yes No Yes No
Option of new smal NPP No No
Electricity market prices Average Average
Investments for technologies Average Average
Share of locally produced electricity in total
electricity demand Not specified
2020(30%),
2050(50%)
2020(50%),
2050(80%)
2020(30%),2
050(50%) Not specified
2020(50%),
2050(80%) Not specified
Possible share of imported electricity in total
electricity demand Not specified
2020(70%),
2050(50%)
2020(50%),
2050(20%)
2020(70%),
2050(50%) Not specified
2020(50%),
2050(20%) Not specified
Possible share of imported electricity from
third countries in total electricity demand Not specified
2020(35%),
2050(10%) -
2020(35%),
2050(10%) Not specified - Not specified
Share of possible electricity production by
local generators with guarantied availability 50% 100% 50%
Not
specified 50% 100%
Not
specified 50% 100% 50% 100%
Links with IPS/UPS for electricity import Used Used Not used Used
Synchroneus operation with Power system of Continental Europe since 2025 Power system of Continental Europe since 2025
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
20
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20
25
20
30
20
40
20
50
GW
h
Nafta
Kita_energija
Durpės
Dujos
Branduolinis
Biokuras
Biodujos
Atliekos
Anglis
Galutiniai poreikiai
Electricity production by fuel type in different scenarios
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2000
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10000
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14000
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20000
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40
20
50
GW
h
Nafta
Kita_energija
Durpės
Dujos
Branduolinis
Biokuras
Biodujos
Atliekos
Anglis
Galutiniai poreikiai
Basic I50
0
2000
4000
6000
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10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
20
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20
30
20
40
20
50
GW
h
Nafta
Kita_energija
Durpės
Dujos
Branduolinis
Biokuras
Biodujos
Atliekos
Anglis
Galutiniai poreikiai
Basic G80b
Integration Ab
Wind, solar,
hydro
Gas Biomass
Waste
Gas
Biomass
Waste
Gas Biomass
Waste
Wind, solar,
hydro
Wind, solar,
hydro
Final demand Final demand
Final demand Remaining part of
electricity requirement
is satisfied by electricity
import from neighboring
countries
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
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20
30
20
40
20
50
GW
h
Nafta
Kita_energija
Durpės
Dujos
Branduolinis
Biokuras
Biodujos
Atliekos
Anglis
Galutiniai poreikiai
Integration Aa
Dujos Biomass
Waste
Final demand
Wind, solar,
hydro
VNPP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
20
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15
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20
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25
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30
20
40
20
50
GW
h
Saulės energija
Atliekinė šiluma
Atliekos
Biodujos
Biokuras
Branduolinis
Anglis
Durpės
Nafta
Dujos
Galutiniai poreikiai
Vartojimas viso:
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
%
Neįskaitant atliekinėsšilumos
Įskaitant atliekinę šilumą
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
140002
01
1
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25
20
30
20
40
20
50
GW
h
Saulės kolektoriai
Atl. šiluma
VŠK
Vari TE
ATE
KCDT TE
DT TE
TE
KE
Galutiniai poreikiai
Vartojimas viso:
District heat supply Integration_Ab scenario
According technology type
According primary energy type
CHP
Boilers
Solar
collectors Residual heat
Residual heat Solar
energy
Waste
Biogas
Biomass
Gas
Modular
CHP
GT CHP
Peat
Coal
Oil
Share from RES
Without residual
heat counted
With residual
heat counted
Consumption of primary energy
Integration_Ab scenario
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
20
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20
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20
19
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20
25
20
30
20
40
20
50
GW
h
Biodegalai
Elektra (importo/eksporto saldo)
Atliekinė šiluma
Saulės energija
Vėjo energija
Hydroenergija
Biodujos
Kom_atliekos
Biokuras
Branduolinis
Durpės
Anglis
Dujos
Nafta
Oil products
Gas
Biomass
Coal Peat
Waste
Electricity
Biofuel
Solar energy
Wind energy
Residual heat
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
20
11
20
12
20
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20
14
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15
20
16
20
17
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20
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20
20
20
25
20
30
20
40
20
50
Mln
. t
Galutiniai vartotojai
Ne energetinėsreikmėsSaKol
VŠK
Vėjo
Vari TE
SaPV
Mini TE
TE
KE
KCDT TE
KCDT
HE
DT TE
ATE
AE
CO2 limitas max
CO2 emissions in selected scenarios
Basic I50
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
20
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20
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20
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20
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20
16
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20
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20
19
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20
20
25
20
30
20
40
20
50
Mln
. t
Galutiniai vartotojai
Ne energetinėsreikmėsSaKol
VŠK
Vėjo
Vari TE
SaPV
Mini TE
TE
KE
KCDT TE
KCDT
HE
DT TE
ATE
AE
CO2 limitas max
Basic G80b
0
2
4
6
8
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14
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20
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13
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20
25
20
30
20
40
20
50
Mln
. t
Galutiniai vartotojai
Ne energetinėsreikmėsSaKol
VŠK
Vėjo
Vari TE
SaPV
Mini TE
TE
KE
KCDT TE
KCDT
HE
DT TE
ATE
AE
CO2 limitas max
Integration Ab
Share of RES in the primary energy consumption
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
0.450
0.500
0.550
0.600
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
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20
23
20
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20
29
20
32
20
35
20
38
20
41
20
44
20
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20
50
San
t. V
nt.
Metai
Integracijos Aa
Integracijos Ab
Integracijos Ac
Izoliacijos Aa
Izoliacijos Ab
Izoliacijos Ac
Žaliasis Aa
Žaliasis Ab
Žaliasis Ac
Bazinis I50
Bazinis I100
Bazinis G50
Bazinis G80
Bazinis G80b
Wholesale electricity cost in Lithuania
(compared with Basic I50 scenario)
Without VNPP Without VNPP
With VNPP
2025 Without VNPP Without VNPP
Domestic el.
prod.
Domestic el.
prod.
Domestic el.
prod. Inst. capacity Inst. capacity
=>50% =>80% =>50% =>50% =>100%
RES not specified Basic G50 Basic G80b Basic I50 Basic I100
Electricity import
allowed 1.11 1.21 1.00 1.15
from West and East
RES 55% Integration Aa Integration Ab Integration Ac
Electricity import
allowed 1.17 1.17 1.31
from West and East
RES 55% Isolation Aa Isolation Ab Isolation Ac
Electricity import
allowed 1.24 1.18 1.33
from West
RES 65% Green Aa Green Ab Green Ac
Electricity import
allowed 1.35 1.30 1.44
from West and East
11
General provisions
Characteristics
of global
environmental
and challenges
for energy
security
Local and
renewable
energy
sources
Priorities of
the EU energy
policy
Factors
adversely
affecting
development
of the
Lithuanian
energy sector
Economic
development
of the country
Prognoses of
energy
demand
Prognoses of
fuel prices
Vision of the energy sector
Strategic goals of national energy sector
The mission of the
State
Lithuania's
interests and
objectives in the
Baltic region
Lithuania's
interests and
objectives in the
formation of the
EU energy policy
Electricity sector Heat sector Gas sector Fuel sector
Security of energy supply
Energy efficiency
Market liberalisation and pricing
Environmental situation
Strategic highlights Flexibility and rationality. Diversification and liberalization. Integration.
Efficiency. Local and renewable resources. Sustainable development
Strategic planning. Reliable information.
Competence of professionals
Structure of the current project for update of NES
Main statements of the NES. The political-economic situation. Vision
12
• Lithuania is lacking indigenous energy sources (these which currently
are dominating in in the world and Lithuanian energy sector);
• In this situation, the country's energy sector needs to be oriented
towards bigger flexibility, higher efficiency and greater rationality.
Lithuanian energy sector in the future is: • an integral part of the modern economy,
• reliably and safely supplying energy to all domestic consumers (households
and businesses) at economically reasonable and acceptable to consumers (not
higher than the average of the EU countries) prices;
• capable flexibly and quickly adapt to changing domestic and external
conditions, rationally and efficiently exploit opportunities of surrounding
energy markets, local and renewable energy sources, own competitive energy
production sources and infrastructures, perfectly coordinate public and
private partnership and the possibilities.
13
a. Maximal development of competitive indigenous energy generating sources (utilising biomass, wind, solar energy, potential of combined heat and power production, but not
discriminating other technologies, which satisfy competitiveness and other requirements of EU energy
policy);
b. Focus on energy efficiency increasing competitiveness of the country;
c. Focus on broader utilisation of renewable energy sources, exploiting large single
market opportunities, load management measures, maneuverable local sources,
energy storage and other means for balancing of their intermittent generation
(Measures and their utilisation scale are changing with the time);
d. Turn towards stimulating pricing system;
e. Establishment of the energy competence centre, which will be focussing on
planning of energy sector development, management, experience sharing, creation
of value added, etc;
f. Integration into energy markets and vider utilisation of their opportunities
(electricity, gas, (others));
g. Maintaining adequate installed capacities at domestic power plants for security of
electricity supply;
Strategic pathways in energy sector
14
h. Implementation of necessary measures in the power system able to guaranty its
stable operation under different disturbances and it’s future synchronization with
the Continental European or Scandinavian power systems (in coordination with Latvia
and Estonia);
i. Implementation of the transparent market relationships on the district heat
production side (for heat production, balancing and reservation services, taking into account size
of the systems);
j. Assurance of the cost efficient flexibility of natural gas supply necessary due to
the possible extreme consumption changes caused by the necessity to ensure
security of energy supply;
k. Seeking of common market rules within EU that are applied for the trade with
third countries;
Strategic pathways in energy sector
15
a. Energy security driven level of domestic electricity production (usually not
competitive in the market) or level of installed capacities;
b. Type of domestic electricity production technologies for achieving the above
goal (Base or not base generation? Concentrated, distributed? Primary energy sources?);
c. Probability and scale of energy supply disturbances and possible losses in the
national economy due to energy supply interruptions?
d. What is priority: country competitiveness or energy export;
e. Lithuanian contribution for achievement of EU goals in RES use;
f. Possible contribution of the industry, transport sector and household in
reducing emissions into atmosphere;
g. Should energy sector have priority for other economy branches?
Controversial questions in energy sector (Mainly not related to the opinion of NES developers but based on opponents' speeches)
Overview of the Lithuanian NES
project
16
Arvydas Galinis
Laboratory of energy system research [email protected]
Lithuanian Energy Institute
