Upload
ccafs-cgiar-program-climate-change-agriculture-and-food-security
View
446
Download
2
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Robert Zougmore, CCAFS West Africa RPL, presenting CCAFS Capacity Building Strategy for WA at WASCAL Advisory Boards Meeting.
Citation preview
WASCAL MRP/GRP Advisory Boards Meeting November 20 - 21, 2012, Elmina, Ghana
Robert ZougmoréWest Africa Program Leader CCAFS
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Program (CCAFS):
overview and capacity building strategy for WA
2 • 3/21/11
1. The global and African challenges
2. Program design3. Themes4. Capacity building in CCAFS5. Collaboration with WASCAL
Outline
Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change
• “Business as usual in our globally interconnected food system will not bring us food security and environmental sustainability”
• “The window of opportunity to avert a humanitarian, environmental and climate crisis is rapidly closing”
Beddington et al. (2012) Science 335: 289-290 www.ccafs.cgiar.org/commission
Challenge 1:Food security
In 15 years time there will be another billion people to feed
A billion people go hungryAnother billion suffer nutrient
deficienciesAnother billion over-consume
100% (+/- 11%) more food by 2050
Tilman et al 2011Proc. National Academy Science
With current trajectories of populations & diets
This has major implications for land cover change
Challenge 2: Adaptation to CC
Signs of Hope: Rehabilitation,
Prevention
IPCC PROJECTIONS FOR AFRICA
• CO2 enrichment• Temperature increase of 1.5 to 4 ⁰C in this
century• Fewer colder days and nights• Frequent hot days and nights• Arid areas will become drier, humid areas
wetter• Increase in droughts and floods• Sea level rise • High levels of desertification and soil
salinization in some countries
To 2090, taking 18 climate models
Four degree rise
Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science
>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain
Length of growing period (%)
Length of growing season is likely to decline..
Crop suitability will fall in many areas
Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS
50 crops, to 2050
-95 to -31-30 to -11-10 to -101 to 2930 to 4748 to 98
% change
Historical impacts on wheat (1980-2008)
% Yield impact for wheat
Changes in growing season temperature
Lobell et al (2011)
ChinaIndiaUSRussiaFranceGlobal
• Greater frequency of extreme events• More severe extreme events
% p
rice
incr
ease
201
0-20
50Climate change will add greatly to price increases…
Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI
Maize Rice Wheat
Impact of weather shocks
Oxfam (2012) based on D. Willenbockel (2012)
Environmental challenge
Vermeulen et al. 2012 Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)
19-29% global GHGs
from food systems
18 • 3/21/11
Program Design
19 • 3/21/11
The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is a strategic collaboration between the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP).
CCAFS: the partnership
20 • 3/21/11CCAFS in WA: working in partnershipRegional organizations (e.g. CORAF, FARA, ASARECA)Continental initiatives (e.g. CAADP, ECOWAP,, PAU)Meteorological, development, capacity organizations(e.g. AGRHYMET, NMO)National research & extensionState sectoral institutionsNGOs, Private sector, FOs
21 • 3/21/11
1. Identify and develop pro-poor
adaptation and mitigation
practices, technologies and
policies for agriculture and
food systems.
2.Support the inclusion of
agricultural issues in climate
change policies, and of
climate issues in agricultural
policies, at all levels.
CCAFS objectives
22 • 3/21/11
The CCAFS FrameworkAdapting Agriculture to
Climate Variability and Change
Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:
1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
2. Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk
3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation
Improved Environmental
HealthImproved
Rural Livelihoods
Improved Food
Security
Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural
resource management, and food systems
Trade-offs and Synergies
4. Integration for Decision Making
• Linking Knowledge with Action• Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and
Planning• Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis
23 • 3/21/11
Progressive Adaptation
THE VISION
To adapt farming systems, we need to:
• Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies
• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential
• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level
24 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies
Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climatesObjective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
25 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
1.1
• Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites)
• Agricultural knowledge transfer
• Analysis of enabling policies and instit. mechanisms
Adapted farming systems
1.2
• Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies
• Regional fora to discuss and set priorities
Breeding strategies for
climate stresses
1.3
• Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation
• On-farm use of diversity to adapt
• Policies of access for benefit sharing
Species and genetic diversity
26 • 3/21/11
Farm of the Future Approach
Strengthen the adaptive capacity of farmers and AIS to climate change using climate analogue tools and adaptation practices (learning opportunities)
27 • 3/21/11
• Over 3,000 trials
• 16 crops• 20 countries• > 15
international and national institutions
New data
Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)
28 • 3/21/11
Risk
Management
THE VISION
• Climate-related risk impedes development, leading to chronic poverty and dependency
• Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term
•Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations.
29 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level)
Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response (Food system level)
Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services
Managing Climate Risk · 2
30 • 3/21/11
Managing Climate Risk · 2
2.1
• Designed diversification
• Index-based risk transfer
• Anticipatory mgmt, aided by forecasts and communications
• Participatory action research
Building resilient livelihoods
2.2
• Manage price volatility via trade and storage
• Improved early warning systems
• Coordin. platform
• Food safety nets
• Post-crisis recovery
Food delivery, trade, and crisis
response
2.3
info.• Historical data
reconstruction• Downscaled, tailored
seasonal forecast predictions
• Monitor and forecast crops, rangelands, pests & diseases
services• Institutional
arrangements• Communication
processes• Capacity bldg for
providers
Climate information and services
31 • 3/21/11 Scaling up climate information services
- 42 participants (NHMS) staff trained to produce seasonal forecasts (ECOWAS countries, Agrhymet, ACMAD)
−Forecast bulletin produced disseminated
- 140 participants (33 women) (farmers, extension, NGOs staff) trained (Ségou, Yatenga, Kaffrine) to understanding seasonal forecast information & make management decisions.
- Evaluation of the seasonal forecast results with the farmers
- Strengthen the capacity of NHMS in forecasting
- Tailor climate information to the needs of farmers
32 • 3/21/11
Pro-poor Mitigation
VISION
Short-term: Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes
Long-term: Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation
33 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways
Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements
Objective Three: Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications
Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
34 • 3/21/11
Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
3.1
• Evaluate lowest carbon footprints for: food production, adaptation, energy production, sustainable intensification, poverty alleviation
• Assess impacts of current policies
• Develop coherent vision to guide agric dvlpt
Low-carbon development
pathways
3.2
• Test feasibility of carbon market for smallholders, focusing on best bets (SE Asia, Latin Amer)
• Assess potential non-market options
• Assess impacts on marginalized groups and women
Incentives and instit.
arrangements
3.3
• Test technological feasibility of smallholder mitigation on farms
• Dvlpt cost-effective, simple, integrated MRV.
• Assess impacts of all GHGs through their lifecycles.
On-farm mitigation
options
35 • 3/21/11
CP
Plot
Landscapes
Farming systems
Scale and boundaries
Linking to yields and food security
Mixed production systems
Management& activity data
Knowledge generation & information exchange
ICRAF, ILRI, IRRI, ICRISAT, FAO, University of Hohenheim, Global Research Alliance for Agricultural Greenhouse Gases
Measurement equipment
Need to developing a shared protocol for GHG emissions
36 • 3/21/11
IntegrationFor Decision-Making
VISION
• Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework, grounded in the policy context
• Synthesize lessons learned
• Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers
• Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions
• Build partners’ capacity
37 • 3/21/11
T2: Risk Management
T3: Pro-poor Mitigation
Rural Livelihoods
Environment
Food Security
Integration for
Decision Making
38 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Linking knowledge with action
Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning
Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis
39 • 3/21/11
Integration for Decision Making · 4
4.1
• Regional scenarios
• Vulnerability assessments
• Approaches to decision making informed by good science
• Approaches to benefit vulnerable, disadvantaged groups
Linking knowledge with
action
4.2
• Integrated assessment framework, toolkits, and databases to assess CC impacts
• Baselines, data generation & collation, scoping studies, and tool development
• Socially-differentiated decision aids and info for different stakeholders
Data and tools for analysis and
planning
4.3
• Assess CC impacts at global & regional levels on: producers, consumers, natural resources, and international transactions
• Analyze likely effects of scientific adap. and mitig. options, national policies
• Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groups
Frameworks for policy analysis
Regional socio-economic scenarios for West Africa
What has been done?
• Four scenarios have been created with actors from governments, private sector, civil society, academia and media including support from regional bodies ECOWAS and CORAF
• Scenarios explore food security, environmental change and livelihoods under different contexts of state, private sector and civil society power and policy priorities
Policy driver Short-
termpriorities
Long-termpriorities
Dominant Force
StateActors
Governments facilitate short-term gain: cash,
carbon and calories
A slow and painful
transition to sustainable
states
Non-stateActors
Ungoverned, quick and chaotic
development; dealing with crises at the expense of investment
A struggle between civil
society and the private sector
that is ultimately productive
• Scenarios inform global agricultural economic models (IMPACT, GLOBIOM) linked to climate models
Focusing on women farmers
• Climate-related shocks have had much greater negative impacts on women than men
• Women have less access to climate information than men
• Women crucial for food security – when have more power, access and earnings, then more income allocated to food, child nutrition and education
Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices
The CGIAR Research Centers
Lead center - CIAT
Place-based field research work
Indo-Gangetic Plains:There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise; the intensity and probability of extreme events will likely increase.
Regional director:Pramod Aggarwal
East Africa:Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress.
Regional director:James Kinyangi
West Africa:Extreme rainfall variability impedes precipitation predictions, but the Sahel will likely experience shorter growing periods.
Regional director:Robert Zougmoré
PARTNERS
CCAFS (CGIAR
+ ESSP)
FO/CBO
PRIVATE
RECs (CILSS, INSAH, etc.)
CSO
NARESARIs
UNIVs
NGOs
PARTICIPATORY ACTION RESEARCH
Objective: Test, adapt and monitor strategic innovations supporting climate-smart agriculture
Approach: particular actions, interventions tested and implemented simultaneously with local partners, researchers & development workers cooperating closely
Research user driven for Science
1. increases productivity
2. resilience (adaptation)
3. reduces GHG
(mitigation)
And enhances achievement
of national food security
and development goals
(FAO, 2010)WWW.FAO.ORG/CLIMATECHANGE/CLIMATESMART/EN
What is Climate Smart Agriculture?
Agriculture that sustainably:
Capacity building in CCAFS
People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently.
A Definition
• Adaptation requires embedded local capacity, not external solutions
• CCAFS aims to enhance both (a) research capacities and (b) capacities to link knowledge and action
The CCAFS Vision
Capacity enhancement in CCAFS
Capacity enhancement in CCAFS
For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results.
Post-grad students, meteorological services, climate and agricultural research institutes, field workers...
e.g. CLIFF Climate Food and Farming Network
For policy partners to demand and use data, tools, and results.Governments (policy makers, climate negotiators), civil society, development organizations, farmers’ organizations, private sector.
e.g. User-driven regional scenarios
Examples of global capacity enhancement work in CCAFSResearchers’ capacity: The Climate
Food and Farming Research Network (CLIFF) supports PhD fieldwork & links students to the development of a global GHG protocol for smallholders www.cliff.life.ku.dk
Research users’ capacity: The Food Climate Research Network (FCRN) provides updates on research and practice for practitioners, & a forum for problem-solving www.fcrn.org.uk
CAPACITY BUILDING STRATEGY IN WAEnable stakeholders to effectively using scientific
knowledge, tools & methods for informed planning & decision making
Focus on capacity of research (NARS, Universities…) and ability of countries’ negotiators and CSOs, farmers’ organizations, to contribute effectively to debates in the international arena:
Short-term capacity building: train people in the skills needed to undertake the research.
Long-term capacity building: liaise with other actors who can help develop curricula and provide graduate training (e.g. WASCAL).
Working relationships with regional & national actors (e.g. AGRHYMET-INSAH-CILSS) contribute to strengthen their capacity -and that of national partners- to accomplish their mandate of reducing climate risks for improved food security.
• Possibilities for masters & PhDs in CCAFS PAR research work (collaboration with Univ.)
• Additional research themes of good match for WASCAL-sponsored PhD students (CCAFS TLs)
• Access to CCAFS sites• Access to data sets, • Access to CCAFS publications (report series,
working papers, etc.)• Access to meetings, national/regional
networks• Start–up
logistics/contacts/introductions/advice
CCAFS and WASCAL
WASCAL MRP/GRP Advisory Boards Meeting November 20 - 21, 2012, Elmina, Ghana
www.ccafs.org; [email protected]