OW en CMT 2008 China Telecom

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  • 8/3/2019 OW en CMT 2008 China Telecom

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    With the restructuring of Chinas telecommunications

    industry, some analysts are betting that China Mobile will

    dominate. We take a different position: Dominance by any

    single player is not a forgone conclusion. With the right

    business designs, focus on the right customers, meticulous

    execution of strategy, and careful attention to the rewards

    and challenges that will come with being an integrated (and

    possibly converged) operator, other players will also have the

    opportunity to succeed.

    In our view, the ability to achieve profitable and sustainable

    growthnot simply capture the biggest revenues or customer

    basewill define the ultimate winners.

    by

    Jonathan Gove

    Arnold Lau

    Chinas New TelecommunicationsLandscape: Who Will Win?

    Communications, Media, and Technology

  • 8/3/2019 OW en CMT 2008 China Telecom

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    2

    The Governments Big Decision

    In May, Chinas Ministry of Industry and

    Information, National Development and Reform

    Commission, and Ministry of Finance jointly

    announced the long-awaited restructuring of the

    countrys telecommunications industry. Six tele-

    communications operators will be merged into

    three. Without giving a timetable, the govern-

    ment plans to issue 3G licenses after the mergers

    are completed, to allow all three operators to run

    fixed-line and mobile services.

    Each of the three new telecom giants will have hun-

    dreds of millions of customers (see Exhibits 1 and 2):

    Exhibit 1 Players in Chinas telecom industry, before restructuring

    After restructuring

    NorthChina

    SouthChina

    Mobile (GSM) PHS Fixed lines

    China Mobile

    Subscribers: GSM 367 million(~70% mobile market share - excluding PHS)

    Revenues: RMB 360 billion

    ChinaUnicom

    Subscribers:GSM 119 millionCDMA 41 million(~30% mobilemarket share -excluding PHS)

    Revenues:RMB 99 billion

    China NetcomSubscribers: Fixed line 114 million,

    including ~28 million PHS(~30% market share) Broadband 20 million

    (~30% market share)Revenues: RMB 82 billion

    China Telecom

    Subscribers: Fixed line 222 million,including ~60 million PHS

    (~60% market share)Broadband 36 million(~55% market share)

    Revenues: RMB 177 billion

    ChinaRailcom(Tietong)

    $1 = RMB 7.23

    Subscribers:Fixed line 18 million(~5% market share)Broadband 0.3 million(~1% market share)

    Revenues:RMB 15.5 billion

    Mobile(CDMA)

    NorthChina

    SouthChina

    Mobile (GSM) PHS Fixed lines $1 = RMB 7.23Mobile(CDMA)

    Source: Oliver Wyman analysis.Note: China Satcom's revenue of basic telecom services is not included in the post-restructuring revenue of China Telecom.

    China Mobile +China Railcom (Tietong)

    Subscribers:GSM 367 million (~70% mobile market share)

    Fixed line 18 million (~5% market share)Broadband 0.3 million (~1% market share)

    Revenues: ~RMB 380 billionChina Telecom + Unicom CDMA +

    China Satcombasic telecom services

    Subscribers:CDMA 41 million (8% market share)

    Fixed line 222 million, incl ~60 million PHS

    (~60% market share)Broadband 36 million(~55% market share)

    Revenues: ~RMB ~204 billion

    China Netcom + Unicom GSMSubscribers: GSM 119 million (22% share)Fixed line 114 million, incl 28 million PHS

    (~30% market share)Broadband 20 million (~30% market share)

    Revenues: ~RMB ~152 billion

    It is unclear at press

    time how China

    Netcom and China

    Telecom will be

    allowed to compete

    in each others origi-

    nal geographies

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    3

    China Mobile Communications Corp.China

    Mobilethe countrys largest mobile operator,

    will merge with the small fixed-line operator,China Tietong Telecommunications Corp.

    China Telecommunications Corp.China

    Telecomthe nations largest fixed-line opera-

    tor, will acquire a CDMA-based mobile network

    from China United Telecommunications Corp.

    (China Unicom), the smaller of the countrys

    two mobile operators, and take up the basic

    telecommunications services of China Satellite

    Communications Corp.

    The remainder of China Unicom (a network

    based on the GSM standard) will merge with

    China Network Communications GroupChina

    Netcomthe countrys second-ranked fixed-line

    operator.

    The governments decision aims to optimize the

    allocation of fixed and mobile resources among

    operators and create a level playing field. By

    awarding mobile licenses to the fixed incumbents,the government may help strengthen these com-

    panies, thus increasing the value of their state-

    owned assets. The restructuring could allow the

    three reconfigured competitors to take advantage

    of the lessons learned by telecom firms in othermajor markets around the world that already

    restructured, thereby improving their management

    expertise and transforming their business designs

    and operating models.

    In addition, the government hopes to encourage

    autonomous innovation, which means promoting

    Chinas homegrown 3G technology, TD-SCDMA,

    and using it as a springboard to enhance Chinas

    competitiveness and influence in the global tele-communications arena.

    Regardless of the reasons behind the restructuring,

    many experts believe that the post-restructuring

    scenario will favor China Mobile disproportionately.

    Mobile telephony still has significant growth poten-

    tial in China, because mobile penetration stood at

    just over 40% at the end of 2007half the level of

    many developed markets. Oliver Wymans recent

    State of the Industry report finds that mobile com-

    munications in emerging markets is the largestvalue-creation sector in the worldwide communica-

    tions, media, and technology (CMT) industry.

    Exhibit 2 Comparison of operators

    Source: Oliver Wyman analysis.

    344

    5849

    170

    142

    74

    235

    65

    3449 2719

    6277 86

    119

    41 40

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    ChinaMobile +

    ChinaRailcom

    ChinaTelecom +

    UnicomCDMA

    ChinaNetcom +

    UnicomGSM

    Vodafone Telefonica DeutscheTelecom

    AT&T NTTDoCoMo

    BT0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    Market cap ($ billions), as of 15 May 2008

    FY 2007 revenue ($ billions)

    Number of subscribers, 2007 (millions)

    Market cap/revenue Subscribers

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    4

    Moreover, other evidence supports China Mobile

    being in the best position to continue dominating

    this space after the restructuring. For example, the

    company will possess the largest mobile market,

    the most extensive business and operations exper-

    tise, and the strongest brand and customer base.

    Mobile composes more than 60% of the total tele-

    com market in China, a share that is still growing.

    Many observers also maintain that China Mobile is

    years ahead of its competitors in its readiness to

    launch mobile Internet services, which is a major

    growth opportunity. Owing to its integration with

    the much smaller Tietong, the company also may

    face fewer post-merger distractions. In addition, it

    boasts abundant financial resources with which

    to invest in new growth areas. Although fresh sub-

    scribers often provide less value as penetrationrates increase, China Mobile can serve them with

    lower incremental costs, thanks to its massive scale

    and infrastructure.

    Of course, government actions will influence each

    companys fate in this highly regulated sector.

    To achieve a level playing field, for instance, the

    government plans to implement asymmetric regu-

    latory tools, which could include imposing a mar-

    ket-share cap to prevent any player from becoming

    a de facto monopoly; implementing asymmetric

    mobile number portability; mandating preferential

    tariff treatment; or opening a 2G network.

    Despite these facts, we maintain that a telecom

    landscape dominated by China Mobile is not a

    forgone conclusion. The remainder of this white

    paper addresses the key strategic questions:

    How will Chinas telecom industry evolve over

    the next three to five years?

    What are the biggest opportunities for profitable

    growth for the three new operators?

    What business design would best help them

    capture those opportunities?

    How might they execute that business design

    successfully?

    What risks can they expect to encounter, andhow can they mitigate those risks?

    Mobile Is the Wellspring of Growth

    The Chinese telecom market is poised to enter

    a tremendous growth cycle in the next several

    years. Consensus market forecasts predict that

    by 2011, as many as 500 million new mobile sub-

    scribers will bring mobile penetration to over 70%

    of Chinas population. In addition, as many as 80

    million new broadband customers could increase

    broadband penetration to 30% of Chinese house-

    holds. Meanwhile, the consensus predicts that the

    fixed-line subscriber base will shrink by around

    10% of households in the next four years. This rate

    of shrinkage is substantially slower than that in

    other highly penetrated markets, in part because

    of modest growth of fixed-line access in some

    rural areas.

    Nevertheless, we expect that value in this industry

    will continue to migrate to mobile services in the

    next three to five years, with mobile likely contrib-

    uting over 75% of the industrys revenues and

    earnings in 2011. Mobile revenues will continue

    to rise thanks to higher penetration, with voice

    and SMS remaining the dominant contributors.

    Moreover, revenues and profits from mobile TV,

    mobile broadband, mobile games, and m-commerce

    will constitute a larger percentage of total spending

    by consumers and may become critical means of

    differentiation for operators.

    Developments in the fixed-line realm will further

    improve mobiles promise (see Exhibit 3). Value-

    added services (such as ring tones) are the current

    growth engines for fixed-line operators, driving

    revenue growth of 35-40%. But growth will prob-

    ably taper off as the market saturates and mobile

    substitution eats into the subscriber base. Fixed

    broadband has compensated for losses in fixedvoice but has not driven overall growth. If the

    pattern seen in other penetrated markets (think

    acceleration of fixed-voice decline) occurs, fixed-

    line players in China will come under even greater

    pressure to replace this revenue and this portion

    of their customer base.

    Finally, consensus anticipates that Internet Protocol

    Television (IPTV) could become a growth platform

    in China. However, Chinas State Administration

    of Radio, Film, and Television has not merged withthe Ministry of Information Industry into the newly

    created Minister of Industry and Information. For

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    5

    the near term, ambiguity about the new regulatory

    body could constrain IPTVs growth.

    Dynamics of the New Markets

    How will the larger market dynamics play out in

    Chinas restructured telecom industry? We foresee a

    competitive landscape containing three large local

    players. Owing to the ambiguous regulatory envi-

    ronment, we see no game-changing new entrant

    (such as Google, mobile virtual network operators,

    foreign operators, or cable companies) encroaching

    on the scene. Cable companies will remain highly

    fragmented, still governed by national and provin-

    cial authorities. After the dust has settled from the

    restructuring, the government may seek to facilitate

    integration of the telecom and media industries,but not in the next few years.

    On the other hand, Internet portals, such as

    Google, could continue trying to gain more control

    over Chinese operators customers as the network

    becomes more open (that is, as consumers use it

    to access a broader array of services from a wider

    range of providers) and as new devices, such as

    the iPhone, gain popularity. Other players along

    the value chain (for example, Tencent, TOM Group,

    and Sina) will likely thrive in adjacent sectors suchas social networking, location-based services, or

    mobile payments. The three operators, to capture

    Exhibit 3 Telecom industry revenues in China

    Source: Oliver Wyman analysis;

    JPMorgan.

    their fair share of customer value and maintain

    strategic control over consumers, may need to

    forge savvy partnerships with these companies

    or enter the Internet space. For example, China

    Mobile recently established an Internet business

    division, signaling confidence in the growth poten-

    tial of this sector.

    Customers in China, for their part, may prefer

    fixed-mobile bundled offers, if such offers come at

    the right price. To take advantage of this opportu-

    nity profitably, carriers will need to weigh the vol-

    ume and price tradeoffs. Even in most developed

    markets, demand for true convergence offers (ser-

    vice delivered across multiple access technologies

    and devices) has been weak. Price has driven cus-tomers purchase decisions to date, and we expect

    this pattern to play out in China as well.

    We also anticipate further segmentation and polar-

    ization of customer preferences. At the high end,

    early adopters will demand bundled offers

    and a rich customer experience (for example,

    high-definition video and the inclusion of roaming

    minutes in the basic plan). And they will be willing

    to pay a premium. At the low end (for example, in

    rural regions), consumers will look for basic ser-vices at low prices on last-generation high-coverage

    networks.

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100%

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    Voice & other

    Broadband

    Voice

    Other data

    VAS

    SMS

    Fix

    edlines

    Mobile

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    6

    As in most other markets, purchase occasions

    for fixed and mobile offers are separate in China.

    Fixed is usually a household-based decision (often

    instigated by a move) that, to date, has entailed

    minimal, if any, options in voice. Mobile is a per-

    sonal decision, often driven by a desire for a new

    handset or by promotions. Hunger for bandwidth

    will intensify, fueled by increasing consumption of

    data and video content through broadband (fixed

    or mobile) access. Finally, while Chinese consum-

    ers show interest in offerings such as one-stop-

    shopping, integrated billing, and multi-domain

    devices, they are not willing to pay extra for them.

    The lesson for Chinas three new operators: To score

    short-term wins in the new environment, compa-

    nies will need to build business designs that quicklyreap the benefits of combining the mobile and

    fixed-line businesses. These benefits include cost

    savings and improvements in customer acquisition

    and retention, with an emphasis on increasing share

    of wallet, not necessarily on more closely aligning

    cross-domain customer relationships. Given the size

    of the mobile opportunity alone, operators will likely

    compete intensely to protect (or gain) profit share

    and attract the most profitable new customers.

    In the medium term, companies can profit from

    the continued growth in the number of mobile and

    broadband users by deepening cross-domain rela-

    tionships. For example, they can encourage the pur-

    chase of multiple products with value bundles, or

    reward regular high spending with loyalty benefits

    and create a more seamless experience for custom-

    ers. In the long term, they can further secure their

    success by creating all-encompassing convergence

    offers, such as multi-platform access to the same

    content and services for multi-mode devices. Thismay call for strategic partnering with or acquisition

    of companies in other parts of the telecom value

    chain, such as content developers and aggregators.

    What It Takes to Thrive

    Chinas restructuring of the telecom industry is

    unprecedented in the scope and scale of change

    involved. No other nations or regions entire

    telecom sector has been restructured in a single

    sweeping initiative. To thrive (never mind survive)

    in this reshaped landscape, the new operators willhave to address several challenges in addition to

    convergence:

    Post-M&A integration

    Issuance of 3G licenses

    Building mobile capabilities

    Geographic expansion into rural areas and (for

    the fixed-line incumbents) expansion north and

    south

    Extreme market growth

    We anticipate seeing a significant land grab in

    the first year following restructuring, as each

    player moves to secure the best customers in each

    domain and across domains. The race to deploy 3G

    infrastructure and to sign up leading-edge userswill further intensify the pressure on each new

    companys early operations.

    Each player has both strengths and challenges, as

    well as the opportunity to create innovative business

    designs and operating models that address attrac-

    tive customers needs in fresh ways. Keys to success

    fall into several categories, shown in Exhibit 4 on the

    next page.

    * * *

    In the new telecom landscape thats about to take

    shape in China, large local operators will encoun-

    ter a number of enticing opportunities, including

    a rapidly expanding mobile market. At the same

    time, they will face fresh challenges, such as the

    need to lead organizational change in a conver-

    gent world and to protect their market share

    from rivals. Competition will stiffen as each seeks

    to stake a claim in the mobile market.

    To capitalize on the best opportunities and avoid

    falling prey to the worst risks, Chinese telecom

    companies can leverage lessons learned by their

    counterparts in other countries that have suc-

    cessfully navigated a similar transformation.

    Though much remains uncertain, including what

    actions the Chinese government may take in the

    coming years, we believe that telecom opera-

    tors in China stand an excellent chance of not

    only surviving but also thriving in their newlandscape.

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    7

    Category

    Organizational structures and

    talent management

    Customers

    Technology and networks

    Convergence

    Exhibit 4 Keys to success for Chinese operators

    Points of focus

    Manage the post-M&A process carefully, including allocating roles and responsibilities

    to people from different legacy organizations, reinventing processes, blending different

    company cultures, and aligning governance structures and policies.

    Understand that the mobile business differs from the fixed business. Acquire and train

    staff at all levels in needed skills. For example, in the short run, this may mean training

    front-line salespeople to sell both mobile and fixed offers.

    Integrate customer bases inherited from legacy organizations, including mobile,

    personal handset, fixed-line, broadband, residential, and enterprise customers.

    Gain a single view of which products are bought by which customer groups across

    multiple service domains.

    Beef up customer-analytics and database marketing capabilities. Use analytics to increase

    share of wallet and develop bundled offerings that increase penetration and stickiness

    without requiring new development efforts.

    Understand customer profitability, and target efforts at the most profitable customers.

    For example, acquiring PHS subscribers and migrating them to mobile may be inexpensive,

    but these are mainly low-value customers.

    Quickly build out a mobile network with high-quality coverage (for example, in rural

    areas) to tap into the mobile opportunity.

    Consider network sharing (at least of sites and possibly of passive infrastructure or active

    networks) for new (3G) deployment. Sharing can accelerate rollout, mitigate rollout risk,

    and lower costs.

    Consider network outsourcing to decrease costs, step up acquisition of mobile-network

    operations and maintenance skills, and free executives attention for more strategic

    matters (such as convergence).

    Formulate a strategy to manage all four dimensions of convergence: organization,

    products/services, front-end processes, and back-end processes.

    Develop converged offers that deliver cost and efficiency benefits in the short term.

    Plan, but do not rush, to move toward the holy grail: truly converged offers.

    Test converged offers impact on market share and profitability with interactive

    scenario-playing.

    Launch high-impact marketing campaigns and loyalty programs.

    Regularly verify customer preferences for converged offers, and design offers around the

    companys existing strengths (for example, broadband).

    Carefully weigh the implications of participating in content for winning in the

    convergent world. For example, explore how the company can use content to sell services

    across platforms.

    Explore ways to work with other value-chain players (device manufacturers, content

    providers, and aggregators) to assemble attractive converged offerings.

    Assess global best practices and lessons learned to ease transition to convergence.

    Consider how convergence can help mitigate risks such as attacks on market share

    or customer base.

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    While there is little doubt that technologies, offers,

    and customer needs are converging, the term

    convergence means different things to different

    people. Moreover, there are different degrees of

    convergence (see Exhibit 5).

    Exhibit 5 Degrees of convergence

    The most successful converged offers to date

    have been bundled or triple-play offers selling

    multiple fixed-line-based products (for instance,

    voice, broadband access, and video) at a discount.

    Telefnicas TRIO (voice, broadband, and IPTV

    under the Imagenio brand) and Neufs Twin are

    apt examples. Adding mobile to the mix (think

    AT&Ts Quad Pack, which includes fixed telephony,

    TV, fixed broadband, and mobile telephony) has

    been a harder sell. Given the prevalence of single-

    domain operators in China and the widespread

    acceptance that Chinas mobile space alone offers

    staggering potential, this difficulty of fixed-mobile

    offer development may arise in China as well.

    Yet the lack of wide acceptance of cutting-edge

    products does not necessarily mean that conver-

    gence is not worth pursuing. A converged operating

    model contains many dimensions, not just the offer

    itself (see Exhibit 6), and companies employing such

    a model are garnering some important benefits.

    Why Convergence?

    A converged operating model can yield significant

    cost savings as well as deeper and stickier custom-

    er relationships, because customers spend more

    across more domains and stay loyal. It can also

    enhance organizational efficiency and decision-

    making. Finally, it can enable a company to put

    in place the infrastructure required to offer truly

    differentiated products and services in line with

    customer demand.

    Most operators are moving down the convergence

    path in some form. Given the momentum of themobile sector worldwide and the increasing sub-

    stitution by mobile for pure fixed and fixed/mobile

    offerings, management teams and capital markets

    alike have made convergence a priority. For some

    companies, the initial objectives behind converg-

    ing have been to achieve cost savings and inte-

    grate technologies to provide a platform for future

    offers; other companies have been more focused

    on bundling and packaging.

    Pure-mobile operators have demonstrated lessurgency overall (even downright reluctance) about

    the move toward convergence. Some view conver-

    Convergence: What, Why, and How?

    True convergence provides a unique customer

    experience across the telecom value chain. It

    requires three things: multi-platform devices that

    have features as good as or better than those

    offered by the best single-platform devices; con-

    tent (such as news, sports information, or net-

    working communities) that customers want to

    receive on several different platforms; applications

    that give customers access across the platforms.

    Few, if any, successful examples of true conver-

    gence exist today. One recent offer by France

    Telecom, Unik, may have come closest. Unik is a

    converged handset that works on both mobile and

    Wi-Fi networks. After a heavy marketing campaign

    to promote it, only 600,000 customers had sub-

    scribed to the offer by the end of the first year. In

    Germany, Deutsche Telekom launched a similar

    offer, but it, too, has fallen short of anticipated

    market acceptance. Pricing and device adjust-ments will likely be necessary to accelerate takeup

    of these offers.

    True convergenceMulti-mode devices

    Service bundles

    Multi-domain customerrelationship (single bill,

    single customer view, etc.)

    Cross-selling

    Least convergedSeparate domain

    and separate customers

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    9

    gence as a defensive tactic useful for fending off a

    competitive threat presented by fixed and mobileplayers in the near term while they prepare to

    offer mobile data services that can substitute for

    broadband in the same way that voice has done.

    This perception is changing, however. Even the

    most successful mobile operators are recognizing

    the need for (at a minimum) select investments in

    fixed and broadband markets.

    Vodafone, for example, is entering the fixed

    market, in part by acquiring Tele2 in Spain and

    Italy, and by leveraging its fixed-line assets in

    Germany, known as ARCOR. The company expects

    this move to generate benefits including cost sav-

    ings, the ability to gain its own fixed network to

    carry voice and data from towers into its infra-

    structure, a defense against fixed/mobile play-

    ers, and the opportunity to provide a broader

    portfolio of offerings. In South Korea, SK Telecom

    is pursuing Hanaro Telecom, the countrys sec-

    ond-largest wireline carrier, with an eye toward

    defending its market position. The companyhopes to add fixed-line services (VoIP, pay TV, and

    broadband) to create triple- and quad-play offers,

    which it believes will help it reduce churn. And

    in Japan, Softbank is integrating both mobile and

    wireline businesses into its strong broadband and

    Internet-content portfolio to enhance its ability to

    offer bundled services.

    In markets where mobile penetration is reaching a

    plateau, pure-mobile operators view convergence

    as a strategy to spur new growth. In France, mobileoperator SFR (which owns 40.5% of Neuf Cegetel)

    has offered to buy the remaining equity in the

    business. Its aim? To challenge France Telecom in

    the market for combined fixed-line, Internet, andcell-phone services (and to achieve cost synergies

    by combining the two operations).

    The substantial cost benefits of a converged model

    cannot be refuted. Oliver Wyman recently helped

    a multi-domain operator lay out its convergence

    path, and identified overall cost-saving opportuni-

    ties of 10-20% for nearly every line of operating

    expenses, with less than a two-year time to sav-

    ings for the majority of initiatives (see Exhibit 7).

    While every operators benefits map will look dif-

    ferent, this magnitude of impact is typical.

    Still, telecom convergence in China will unfold in

    a very different setting than elsewhere. In other

    countries, convergence has arisen by necessity in

    mature markets (where the mobile business is flat,

    and the fixed business is either flat or growing

    only through broadband). But in China, the mobile

    business is still showing significant growth. This

    has mixed implications for Chinese operators. Onone hand, it should make convergence easier in

    terms of finding synergies; its always easier to

    achieve benefits from synergies when companies

    are growing than when they are restructuring. On

    the other hand, operators may find it difficult to

    move away from a single business-line focus when

    business is booming, and the resulting distractions

    can seem costly.

    How to Converge?

    There is no one right path to convergence; dif-ferent markets, and different operators within

    markets, will have their own priorities and ratio-

    Exhibit 6 The four dimensions of convergence

    One customer-centricorganization

    Integrated management

    Integrated governance

    Fixed-mobile bundles forthe consumer market

    Integrated offers for

    small- and medium-sized

    business clients

    Integrated product

    management/marketing

    One sales and customercare organization

    Single view of

    customer base

    Integrated customer

    support service

    Shared services for general

    and administration

    functions

    Integrated networkplatforms and network

    operations

    Integrated network

    management

    Integrated IT systems

    Shared general and

    administration systems

    Convergence ofthe organization

    Converged productsand services

    Converged front-endprocesses

    Imperatives

    Milestones

    Converged back-endprocesses and platforms

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    10

    nales for their decisions regarding how to tackle

    the four dimensions of a converged operating

    model. They will also differ in the degree to which

    they invest in each dimension in the near term.

    For many companies, the ultimate goal might be

    an operating model like the one represented inExhibit 8, but the means of achieving it will differ.

    The exhibit depicts a fully converged model, with

    customer segment (not product) divisions in sales,

    and an integrated marketing team. The model

    uses different network elements to deliver differ-

    ent services, but builds on a common platform

    and allows integrated billing. Corporate functions

    are shared as needed by front- or back-end inter-

    nal customers.

    Lets explore issues associated with each element

    of the convergence operating model.

    Converged organization. To organize for conver-

    gence, many operators have begun offering a full

    portfolio of services (mobile, fixed voice, broad-

    band, TV) but with little or no integration at the

    business-unit level. More forward-thinking opera-

    tors are plotting a clearer path to convergence in

    their organizational structure. Some have started

    building domain-free units devoted to market-ing and sales, network operation, billing, and IT.

    For example, their marketing and sales strategies

    are organized around customer segments rather

    than specific fixed, mobile, or broadband offerings.

    Others have begun by integrating their product

    bundles and sales and marketing staff.

    Creating a converged organization raises somedaunting challenges. Executives must make a

    compelling case for change, foster a sense of

    urgency, win buy-in from lower-level managers,

    and redesign business processes. In addition, the

    company has to provide training to help people

    strengthen needed new skills, such as selling

    both mobile and fixed offerings, or hire people

    with those skills.

    Converged products and services. As noted ear-lier, few, if any, converged offers have been able

    to beat the best-in-class offers now available in

    single-domain or dual-domain environments.

    To tackle this problem, operators will, of course,

    need to cultivate more integrated customer rela-

    tionships. But they can also develop a variety of

    product offers. Many players are now focusing on

    creating bundled offers to take to market.

    Building converged offerings is difficult. Firms

    must carefully manage cannibalization amongbusinesses (for example, mobiles cannibaliza-

    tion of fixed). They need to price the converged

    Exhibit 7 Cost savings from convergence

    Year 4

    Year 3

    Year 2

    Year 1

    % of cost savingsover four years

    10-15%

    5-10%

    80-90%

    5-10%

    Front-endBack-end

    Marketing

    Sales and customer care

    Network

    IT services

    G&A

    Real estate

    Legend:

    Circle representscost saving measure,

    with size depictingcost-savings potential

    Source: Oliver Wyman disguised client example.

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    11

    offers strategically. And they must focus their offer

    development on customer priorities, not on con-

    vergence for the sake of convergence.

    Converged front-end processes (sales, market-

    ing, customer support). To develop a convergedbusiness, operators must gain a single view of

    their customer base, understanding what cus-

    tomers buy across domains, how they buy it, and

    why. Companies also need to provide a stream-

    lined customer-service experience. They can do

    so by converging their front-end processes. For

    example, one major North American provider has

    had success overlaying a cross-domain customer-

    service team on top of separate domain-specific

    business units. Another major operator in NorthAmerica has integrated its sales force and invest-

    ed heavily in training its representatives to sell

    across domains.

    The major challenge with this dimension of the

    converged operating model is recognizing that

    purchase occasions differ greatly across domains,

    and (to date) customers have been accustomed to

    choosing best-in-breed offers from each domain.

    Companies must design processes to build share

    of wallet, to increase cross-selling, and so forthwithout expecting customers to snap up a con-

    verged offer just because its there.

    Converged back-end processes (network, IT

    platforms, general and administrative). Of all the

    converged operating model dimensions, this one

    yields the highest cost savings. Companies can

    then use these savings to fund investments in

    other dimensions of the operating model.

    Key challenges to overcome include the sig-

    nificant capital expenditure required by IT and

    network convergence, which may be difficult to

    justify for operators that have recently invested

    in networks. Moreover, while converging back-

    end processes is perhaps the most critical step to

    developing and delivering converged experiences

    for customers, network- and IT-related processes

    are also often the hardest to change. To overcomeresistance, executives need to formulate a long-

    term strategy for convergence and communicate

    it effectively throughout their organization.

    Different companies tackle the four dimensions

    of the converged operating model in different

    sequences. For example, one European carrier

    started by integrating its networks, then worked

    on converging its organizational structures and

    finally its products. Another European incum-

    bent worked first on organizational convergence,then on products, and finally on its processes

    and platforms.

    Exhibit 8 A true convergence operating model

    End-user/subscriber

    Customer segments

    Converged product management

    Wireline access Wireless access

    Voice Data Voice Data

    CorporateRetail

    Back-end operations IT/Network

    Shared/Corporate Functions (implementation formsvary from fully centralized to matrix)

    Sales and

    customer care

    Marketing

    Service technology/Network operations/

    Operations/ITBilling

    General andadministration

    Broadband

    Business

    11

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