Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems

in the Atlantic-European Sector

Severe Convection

European Windstorms

Mediterranean CyclonesTropical

Cyclones

PANDOWAEDFG Forschergruppe (Research Unit) 896

PANDOWAE

Motivation

Mitigation of impact of severe weather requires accurate numerical weather forecasts

Accuracy of weather forecasts limited not only by technical factors but also by gaps in our knowledge of the processes involved and their representation in forecast models

www.wmo.int/thorpex

PANDOWAE

Motivation

PANDOWAE initiative developed directly out of THORPEX

Aim of PANDOWAE:

“ to advance our knowledge and understanding of the dynamical processes responsible for the development of high impact weather systems, to elucidate the factors that limit the predictability of such systems, and to contribute the basic research that will lead to the development of innovative interactive weather forecasting systems”

PANDOWAE aims to carry out basic research with strong societal and economic relevance

PANDOWAE is motivated by operational needs but not constrained by them

PANDOWAE represents a major contribution to answering some of the fundamental scientific questions posed in THORPEX

PANDOWAE

What is a DFG Research Unit?

DFG guidelines: medium-sized research group collaborating closely on specific medium-term

research project manageable number of projects that all deal with the same subject and that

can only be worked on as a group in the proposed manner topic is current and relevant, basic concept highly innovative and coherent,

justifying six year time-frame constitutive feature is cooperation between the individual proposed projects

Research Units contribute towards: providing young scientists with an opportunity to develop their research skills strengthening cooperation with non-university partners expanding international cooperation improving the infrastructure of university-based research

PANDOWAE

PANDOWAE Timeline

First Phase 2008-2011:

Funding for 3 (+1) Postdocs, 8 (+1) Ph.D. Students

Midterm review Autumn 2010

Second Phase 2011-2013

PANDOWAE

Weather Systems

1 day to 2 week weather forecasts

PANDOWAE Upper-level Rossby waves: What triggers them? How do they develop as they propagate downstream?What determines their predictability?What is their role in severe weather events?

3 Fundamental Research Themes

time

Analysed 500 hPa height anomaly

Elbe flooding

180E180W

Martius, Schwierz and Davies (2007)

heavy precipitation event

wave composites(autumn season)

days

prio

r to

the

even

t

time

PANDOWAE Moist processes and diabatic Rossby waves:How do they influence the evolution of weather systems?What is their role for predictability? How frequent are diabatic Rossby waves?

3 Fundamental Research Themes

„Lothar“: 26. Dezember 1999, 7 UTC

DRW: diabatically produced PV anomaly in lower troposphere

Wernli et al. 2002

dynamical tropopause (2 pvu)

PANDOWAE Adaptivity and Ensembles:What is the value of adaptive observations using different targeting methods? How can uncertainty be represented in ensembles in a flow-dependent way? What insights come from TIGGE for PDP questions?

3 Fundamental Research Themes

Verbunt et al. (2007)

COSMO-LEPS Flow-dependent sampling

PANDOWAE Upper-level Rossby waves: What triggers them? How do they develop as they propagate downstream?What determines their predictability?What is their role in severe weather events?

Moist processes and diabatic Rossby waves:How do they influence the evolution of weather systems?What is their role for predictability? How frequent are diabatic Rossby waves?

Adaptivity and Ensembles:What is the value of adaptive observations using different targeting methods? How can uncertainty be represented in ensembles in a flow-dependent way? What insights come from TIGGE for PDP questions?

3 Fundamental Research Themes

The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble:a multi-model, multi-analysis, multi-national ensemble prediction system

PANDOWAE

PANDOWAE Projects

PANDOWAE-ET: Sarah Jones, Doris Anwender, Christian Grams, Julia Keller, Simon Lang

PANDOWAE-VARNAER: Dieter Peters

PANDOWAE- ADENS: George Craig, Pieter Groenemeijer

Link to HALO-THORPEX / T-NAWDEX: Andreas Dörnbrack

PANDOWAE-ADOBS: Martin Weissmann, Florian Harnisch

PANDOWAE- DIAC: Heini Wernli, Maxi Böttcher, Jana Čampa

PANDOWAE-MED: Christoph Kottmeier, Ulli Corsmeier, Claus-Jürgen Lenz

PANDOWAE-Project Office: Aurelia Müller

PANDOWAE-SESUWAT: Volkmar Wirth, Hartmut Borth (Hamburg), Ilona Türschmann

PANDOWAE

Research Areas

Focus on joint research questions within the research areas

All partners contribute to more than one research area

Significant overlap between the research areas

Enhanced collaboration between partners

P1(SJ)

P2(CK/UC)

P3(HW)

P4(VW/HB)

P5(DP)

P6(GC)

P7(MW)

Rossby wave trains: generation, propagation and wave-breaking

a1 1 2 1 1 2

a2 2 1 2 1 2

a3 1 2 2 1

a4 2 1 2 1 2

a5 1 2 2 2 2

a6 2 1

Moist processes and diabatic Rossby waves

b1 1 1 2

b2 2 2 1 2

b3 1 1 1 2 1 2

b4 1

b5 1 1 2 2 1 2 2

b6 1 2

b7 1 2

b8 2 1

Ensembles and adaptivity

c1 1 1 1

c2 2 2 2 1

c3 1

c4 1 1

c5 1 2 1 2 2

PANDOWAE

PANDOWAE

Research questions will be addressed through:

Climatologies linking dynamical processes to forecast error

Joint case studies based on operational analyses and forecasts / TIGGE data and applying diagnostic techniques

Idealised and real-case modelling studies

Data denial and data impact studies

Application and further development of ensemble systems

Synergy between theoretical studies / analysis of NWP data / numerical modelling / planning and analysis of observational campaigns

Approach

PANDOWAE

First results: TTISS Presentations

Martin Weissmann et al. (DLR, Germany): Overview of T-PARC Falcon operations and first results from ECMWF data denial experimentsFlorian Harnisch and Martin Weissmann (DLR): Observation impact of dropsondeDataChristian Grams and Sarah Jones (U. Karlsruhe): The interaction of TyphoonJangmi (2008) and the midlatitude jetSimon Lang (U. Karlsruhe), Sarah Jones, Martin Leutbecher: The structure of singu-lar vectors associated with extratropical transition of tropical cyclonesDoris Anwender (U. Karlsruhe), Sarah Jones, Carla Cardinali: Data denial experiments for extratropical transitionMaxi Boettcher and Heini Wernli (U. Mainz): A case study of an explosively deepening, diabatic Rossby-wave induced cyclone: the inuence of environmental conditionsIlona Tuerschmann (U. Mainz): The role of a long-lived Rossby wave train in the Elbe flooding on 10-12th of August 2002.Heini Wernli and Jana Campa (U. Mainz): A climatological analysis of diabatic processes associated with extratropical cyclonesJulia Keller (U. Karlsruhe) Sarah Jones and Doris Anwender: Investigation of predictability during the extra-tropical transition of tropical cyclones using TIGGE

PANDOWAE

Collaboration within PANDOWAE

Joint case studies (August – October 2008)

Use of common tools (COSMO Model, ECMWF IFS, Diagnostics, ....)

Analysis of TIGGE data

Workshops

Young Scientists Meetings

9-11 June 2008Höfen

6. – 8. July 2009 in Mainz15. – 17. Dec. 2008 in Karlsruhe

16-18 Feb 2009Murnau

PANDOWAE

External partnerships

Associated Projects: DLR, Leeds, ETH

DWD

ECMWF

THORPEX

Major part of PDP WG programme

Contribution to DAOS WG

Contribution to T-PARC

Contribution to Plan for Europe

Further partners at national and international level

PANDOWAE

www.pandowae.de