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Pacific Ocean Salmon Tracking (POST)
An Acoustic Tracking Array for Studying Ocean Survival and Movements of Columbia
River Salmon
David Welch
Why Study Salmon in the Ocean?1. “Regional” Changes in Climate & Columbia R
Salmon Abundance have HappenedConfounding Effects from Different Causes…
… Increase Chances of Making the Wrong Diagnosis…Slow Down the Ability to Effectively Respond
2. Global Warming/Global Climate Change is Coming
3. The Need for a Salmon Life Cycle Perspective to Address the Issues POST
We need to understand where specific stocks move to in the ocean, and to measure their survival directly
Definitions of Ecology(1)“The study of the relationship of organisms
with their environment” (Haeckel 1866)(2)“The study of the distribution and abundance
of organisms” (Andrewartha and Birch 1954), and
(3)“Ecology is scientific natural history” (Elton 1927)
N Pacific Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey
(“Salmon” without Dams, Hatcheries, or Harvest …)
E. GoAC. GoA
W. GoAE. Aleut.W. Aleut.
S. BeringW Bering
W. Pacific
Japan
BC slope
Point 1: Plankton & Sea bird community composition both cluster into distinct regional assemblages– So the ocean is not one big homogeneous “black box”
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s Point 2: Plankton changes over time are large (despite lack of dams, fishing, and hatcheries…) and differ between regions– So the ocean has big effects & is not one big homogeneous “black box”
Just How Much Will Climate Change?
(Ocean & Freshwater)…And How Will We “Manage” This?
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ture
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ture
ano
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Land
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Jan – Dec Global Surface Mean Temperature anomalies
Global Climate Change
Source: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html
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ture
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Year
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pera
ture
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mal
y (°
C)
Land
Ocean
Jan – Dec Global Surface Mean Temperature anomalies
Global Climate Change
Source: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html
L Chelan Dam
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Tem
pera
ture
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mal
y (°
C)
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pera
ture
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y (°
C)
Land
Ocean
Jan – Dec Global Surface Mean Temperature anomalies
L Chelan Dam
WanapumDam
John Day DamSnake R Dam
Boise R Dam
Bonneville Dam
Grand Coulee Dam
McNaryDam
Snake R Dam (Brownlee)
Dalles Dam
Lower Monumental D
am
L Chelan Dam
Payette R Dam
Wallowa R Dam
Snake R Dam
Rock I Dam
Rocky Reach Dam
Ice HarborPriest RapidsRocky ReachChief JosephLucky Peak Dam (Boise R)
Wells Dam
Little Goose Dam
Lower Granite
Dam
Dam chronology courtesy of John McKern
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Ocean Entry Year
SST
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West Coast of Vancouver Island Temperature
Snake R Spring Chinook SAR
}0.7oC
SAR from Scheuerell and Williams (2005)
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Mean Temperature of the Northern Hemisphere
reconstructed
1900 19 20 1940 196 0 1980 200 0
-0 .5
0
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observed
HadleyHadCM2Ga1
reconstructed
Goals of the POST ProjectA permanent continental-
scale array
Directly measure movement, distribution and survival of fish-including salmon- in continental shelf waters
Develop the ability to follow individual fish– or separate stocks – for decades.
(Expand the scientific observations to encompass a much wider range of oceanographic observations)
2004-05 POST Tagging- The Demonstration Phase
Cultus Lake Sockeye AnimationCourtesy of Baird & Associates
Vancouver, BC
2. Differences in Migration Routes-
Queen Charlotte Strait Listening Line
2004
Tag D
etecti
ons-Q
CS
0510
1520
25
13
57
911
1315
1719
21
Sensor
Num
ber
Detecti
ons
CULTUS LAKE SOCKEYE
2. Differences in Migration Routes-
Queen Charlotte Strait Listening Line2004 Tag Detections-QCS
05
10152025
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
Sensor NumberD
etec
tions CULTUS LAKE SOCKEYE
g
0
100
200
300
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
Sensor Number
Det
ectio
ns SAKINAW LAKE SOCKEYE
Cultus Lake Sockeye (2005)
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150
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
Det
ectio
ns Cultus & Sakinaw Lake Sockeye (2005)
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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
Det
ectio
ns
A Comparison of BC Salmon Survival Results from POST
BC Salmon Survival Freshwater & Marine
Only two stocks show differences in survival between years:
1. Cultus L sockeye survival in 2005 was 1/6th that measured in 2004
2. Keogh R steelhead survival higher in 2005 than 2004
3. All other survival measurements appear stable between years, suggesting that what we are measuring is “real”.
BC Salmon Survival–Comparison with Columbia R
(Prof Carl Schreck’s 2003-04 Snake R Chinook & Steelhead study)
POST’s Findings: Management Implications for Pacific Salmon
I. The ocean migration behaviour of different salmon species is not the same
II. There are differences in migration pathways (speed, route, distribution) of different populations of the same species
III. Distinguishing between ocean climate & hydrosystem effects on survival is critical to informed management of salmon populations
Where POST is Going:
SummaryA permanent measurement system is now feasible•For young salmon, 4 mo~2 year tags are feasible•For larger animals, tags can last decades•A complete census of fish (salmon, sturgeon, shad…) moving in & out of large rivers is now feasible•A wide range of other ocean sensors can be supported off this observation system.•Ocean survival can now be measured directly
Where POST is Going:
Key Points to Keep in MindIn combination, this will lead to an unprecedented ocean observing system telling us how the fish react to the changing ocean environment, where they move to, and where– and perhaps– how they die
POST will allow direct study of salmon in the ocean, with the response of free-ranging fish studied directly
These data are critical to forming a baseline of how salmon respond now, before climate change becomes even more pronounced
CONCLUSIONS“Ecology is he study of the relationship of organisms
with their environment” (Haeckel 1866)“Ecology is the study of the distribution and abundance
of organisms” (Andrewartha and Birch 1954)“Ecology is scientific natural history” (Elton 1927)
POST is a tool designed to open up the black box of the ocean and address issues critical to salmon management:
• Develop a baseline quantitative natural history• Understand why some salmon stocks do more poorly• Distinguish between Habitat, Hydropower, Hatcheries,
Harvest... & Environmental Change as competing explanations• Most fundamentally, to try to get ahead of the curve as the
environment changes and provide critical information
Where is POST Going?
POST 2004-2005
POST 2010