Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 ENSEMBLES Kick-off Meeting Dave Griggs, Director Hadley Centre, 15 September 2004

© Crown copyright 2004 Page 1

ENSEMBLES Kick-off Meeting

Dave Griggs, Director Hadley Centre, 15 September 2004


Climate Prediction Modelling


We can produce a small number of different predictions with no idea of how reliable they might be

Current Status of Climate Change Prediction


Probabilistic Climate Predictions

2080s SE England winter rainfall

Pro

bab

ilit

y

0% 20% 40% 60% 2080s SE England winter rainfall

Pro

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100%

0% 20% 40% 60%

current position required position


Future emission scenariosEffects of natural variability

Modelling of Earth system processes

Sources of uncertainty


Ensemble Climate Prediction

Run ensembles of different climate models to sample uncertainties

Measure variations in reliability between models

Produce probabalistic predictions of climate change


ENSEMBLES

A five year project under EC Framework Programme VI

Funding from EC of 15 million Euros

70 partners from EU, candidate countries, Switzerland, Australia, US

Ten Research Themes


Strategic Objectives

Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the principal state-of-the-art high resolution, global and regional Earth System models, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales

Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System

Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management


Scientific Objectives 1

Build an integrated European capability to predict climate changes, and consequent socio-economic impacts, on seasonal, decadal and longer timescales, using a probabalistic multi-model approach to climate scenario construction.

Assemble Earth System models including the various components and the interactions between them.

Develop high resolution regional climate models for Europe along with quality controlled gridded climate datasets for Europe

Advance understanding of the key processes and feedbacks that govern changes in climate, and related consequences, with particular attention to extreme events and the possibility of abrupt climate change.


Scientific Objectives 2

Develop a comprehensive approach to the validation of climate change ensembles and the impact assessments, which includes the exploitation of seasonal to decadal predictability studies, thereby providing for the first time a sound, quantitative measure of the confidence in future scenarios

Estimate quantitatively the predictability of climate changes and variations, especially those associated with flood and drought, on timescales of seasons, decades and beyond, and to provide better estimates of the likelihood of abrupt, catastrophic climate change in the coming century.

Provide detailed probabalistic assessments of the impacts of climate change at high resolution over Europe.

Disseminate the knowledge gained during the project to policy makers, scientists, and the public.


ENSEMBLES Research ThemesRT Name Co-ordinators

0 Project integration, management and promotion Dave Griggs

1 Development of the Ensemble Prediction System James Murphy, Tim Palmer

2A Production of seasonal to decadal hindcasts and climate change scenarios (Model Engine Part 1)

Guy Brasseur, Jean-François Royer

2B Production of Regional Climate Scenarios for Impact Assessments (Model Engine Part 2)

Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob

3 Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Model Ensembles for Europe

Jens Christensen,Markku Rummukainen

4 Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability andthe probability of extreme events

Julia Slingo, Hervé le Treut

5 Independent comprehensive evaluation of the ENSEMBLES simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses

Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank

6 Assessments of impacts of climate change Colin Prentice, Andy Morse

7 Scenarios and Policy Implications Richard Tol, Roberto Roson

8 Dissemination, Education, and Training Martin Beniston, Christos Giannakopolous



Research Themes

RT1 To build and test an ensemble prediction system based on global Earth

System Models for use in the generation of multi-model simulations of future climate in RT2A.

RT2A To produce sets of climate simulations and provide the multi-model

results needed in other RTs, validation RT5, understanding processes RT4, as well as providing boundary conditions and forcing fields for regional model simulations RT2B.

RT3 To provide improved climate model tools developed in the context of

regional models, first at 50 km, later at 20 km resolution, including provision of a multi-model based ensemble system for regional climate

prediction for use in RT2B.


Research Themes (continued)

RT2B To provide ensemble based regional climate scenarios and

seasonal to decadal hindcasts for use in other RTs, validation RT5, understanding processes RT4, and impacts studies RT6.

RT4 To advance the understanding of the basic science at the heart of

the ENSEMBLES project, exploiting integrations performed in RT2A, linking with RT5 on the evaluation of the ensemble prediction system and feeding back results to RT1.

RT5 To perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the

performance of the ensemble prediction system, including the production of high resolution observational dataset, and using integrations from RT2, RT2A, RT2B and RT3.


Research Themes (continued)

RT6 To carry out climate impact assessments, including linking impact

models to ENSEMBLES probabalistic scenarios produced in RT2A and RT2B, in order to develop risk based estimates of impacts.

RT7 To adopt scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, land-use changes

and adaptive capacity with and without greenhouse gas reduction policies and testing the sensitivity of these scenarios to climate change.

RT8 Represents the interface between the ENSEMBLES scientific

consortium and a wider audience that includes scientists, stakeholders, policymakers and the general public.


Integrates world-leading European research

Participation by main European modelling centres to provide earth system model (ESM) and regional model components

Exploits PRISM infrastructure to explore uncertainty using multi-model approach

Strengthened collaboration between physical climate modellers and experts in the carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry

Participation by applications modellers to deliver climate impacts predictions of societal relevance

Uses techniques and knowledge gained at seasonal timescales and applies them to decadal and longer timescales


Quantifies and reduces uncertainty in representation of Earth system

Carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate to be considered together in a rigorous and interactive way

Combination of global and regional models enables resolution of adequate geographic detail, capturing both regional effects/impacts but including global teleconnections

Economic and social dimensions of uncertainty to be considered

Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify uncertainty, lead to increased understanding, and influence the development of the next generation of models, thereby leading to uncertainty reduction in the future


ENSEMBLES

Description of work agreed, contract expected soon

Project will be managed by a Management Board under the terms of a Consortium Agreement

Project started 1 September 2004

Kick-off meeting 15-16 September 2004


The end


Accreditation

WAFCWorld Area Forecast Centre


Questions & Answers

Documents

Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 ENSEMBLES Kick-off Meeting Dave Griggs, Director Hadley Centre, 15 September 2004