Page 1 Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 1/58 MarKant e c o n s e i l s Jean-Noël Gorge, Oct 18th 2006 1/29 EPITA IT Markets Basic Finance and Marketing Oct 18th

Page 1Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 1/58

MarKantec o n s e i

l s

Jean-Noël Gorge, Oct 18th 2006 1/29

EPITAEPITA

IT MarketsIT MarketsBasic Finance and MarketingBasic Finance and Marketing

Oct 18th 2006Jean-Noël GORGE


MarKantec o n s e i

l s


Previous week V.I.P.Previous week V.I.P.(Very Important Points)(Very Important Points)


MarKantec o n s e i

l s

Jean-Noël Gorge, Oct 18 2006 3/29

Macro economyMacro economy

• France

• GNP (PIB in French)

• Nation’s Budget

• Investments (households excluded)

• IT expenditures (household excl.)

• Euros 109

• 1700

• 270

• 230

• 75


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Investments and Growth Investments and Growth

+1,8%

+3,5%

-10,0

-5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004 20

052006

PIB Investissement


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IT Added value to businessesIT Added value to businesses


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IT and job creationIT and job creation

• France 2006

– 60 to 70 000 recruitment's in IT

– Of which 15 to 20 000 net job creations


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IT employment perspectiveIT employment perspective

207 000 new positions (net !) to be filled in France by 2015* Where to go to find candidates ? How to attract and retain ?

Competition tougher than ever between IT and other industries

papy-boom58 000 IT Pros will

retire in Francefrom now to 2015*creation

of 149 000 newjobs positions in

IT from now to 2015*

Scarcity of new graduates

less students taking sciences


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Consequences for you :Consequences for you :

• For 3 to 4 years (-> 2009 ?) market conditions are favorable to be recruited and promoted

• During the next ten years (one or 2 technical cycles) you must take every opportunity of developing other skills, talents or experiences.

• If you remain a «techy» only, your chances of being obsolete are maximum

• Management • Supervision• Company's functions and businesses


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Questions ?Questions ?


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Do we have long « cycles » in Do we have long « cycles » in IT ???IT ???


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One way of describing a cycleOne way of describing a cycle


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+6 à +8% (e)

+1,8%

+3,5%

-10,0

-5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004 20

052006

PIB L&S Investissement


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Software and software services Software and software services (Syntec) growth inFrance (%)(Syntec) growth inFrance (%)

16,3 15

7

0,8-1,6

3,7 4,66,5

13,5

19,517

10,613,3

-3-5

4,17 87 6

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 992000200120022003200420052006

High forecast Low forecast


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Cycles ? Probably !Cycles ? Probably !

• Personal opinion, based on experience

• Duration : more or less 10 years

• Time it takes for a major technology to roll all along Gartner Group’s curve


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A little bit of history… A little bit of history…

Towards integration…


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CyclesCycles

• +/- a decade (10 years)

• During first 2 years, leaders converge in their technical decisions, which in turn are adopted by followers : massification– Less players on supply side (mergers…)– Similar behaviors and decisions within «major-

accounts» (users – clients)• Following same learning curve (cf Gartner), some

ahead• “Domino’s effect”

– Unit costs are dropping as time pasts– Increasing yields


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HW

MatureTechno.

Emerging techno.

Users

Cyclephase

60's 70's 80's 90's 2000's


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60's 70's 80's 90's

Components

Computers360 & Co

Punched Cards.LSI

Caract. DisplaysVLSI

Tapes, discsOS Batch

10 1

2000's

HW

MatureTechno.

Emerging techno.

Users

Cycle’sphase


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60's 70's 80's 90's

Components Componentsintegration

Computers360 & Co 370's

Punched Cards.LSI

Caract. Displays.VLSI




Point to pointMicrocodeOSI 7 DB

time-sharing

10 1 10 2

2000's

HW

MatureTechno.

Emerging techno.

Users

Cycle’sphase


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60's 70's 80's 90's


Systems’s Integration

Computers360 & Co 370's Minis

Punched Cards.LSI




time-sharingCaract. Displays

VLSITapes, discs

OS Batch


time-sharing

Microprocess.Graphic Displays

LAN DB-RClient/Server

10 1 10 2 10 3

2000's

HW

MatureTechno.

Emerging techno.

Users

Cycle’sphase


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60's 70's 80's 90's



Services Integration

Computers360 & Co 370's Minis Micros

Punched Cards.LSI




time-sharing






time-sharing



WAN, fibre opt.Internet, IPHTML, XML

Objects

10 1 10 2 10 3

10 4

100% of

Internal users

2000's

HW

MatureTechno.

Emerging techno.

Users

Cycle’sphase


MarKantec o n s e i

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60's 70's 80's 90's




Computers360 & Co 370's Minis Micros

Punched Cards.LSI




time-sharing






time-sharing




Objects

10 1 10 2 10 3

10 4

100% of

Internal users

2000's

BusinessIntegration

Internet

WAN, Fiber opticsInternet,IPHTML, XML

Objects

Wireless3G…

10 6

Internal and external

HW

MatureTechno.

Emerging techno.

Users

Cycle’sphase


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Towards integrationTowards integration

Each layer comes on top, previous layers never disappear !!!(See millenium bug)

70's

MainframesCobol 370CICS etc

80's

Minis & department's IT (VAR Digital, HP, DG)

90's 2000's

Micros( Client/Server, ERP)

60's

Assembler & Co


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Digital TimesDigital Times

Industrial Era

Napoléon IIIRailways

Digital Era

ChiracInternet

Mass production, « Pushed » flowsRaw MaterialsHeavy « tangible » investments Taylorism/Marxism

Networked OrganizationsPulled flows « On demand »Fast and leanInformationImmaterial


MarKantec o n s e i

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Industrial times IT challengesIndustrial times IT challenges

Design/Engineering

Logistics

Purchasing

Sales

Finance

Mktg-Comm

Problem =

Integration

Solution=

"re-foundation"

= ERP

Design/Engineering

Manufacturing


MarKantec o n s e i

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Digital times IT systems Digital times IT systems

HW

MatureTechno.

Emerging techno.

Users

Cycle’sphase

90's


MicrosMicroprocess.

Graphic DisplaysLAN DB-R

Client/Server


Objects

10 4

100% of

Internal users

2000's

BusinessIntegration

Internet

WAN, Fiber opticsInternet,IPHTML, XML

Objects

Wireless3G…

10 6

Internal and external


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Need

for Internal

Integration

Company A

Digital times IT systemsDigital times IT systems

xxNetConception

Fabrication

Logistique

Achats

Ventes

Finance

Mktg-Comm

Need for external integration

Company BDesign/Engineering

Logistics

Purchasing

Sales

Finance

Mktg-Comm

Design/Engineering

Manufacturing


MarKantec o n s e i

l s


Questions ?Questions ?


MarKantec o n s e i

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Page 1 Jean-Noël Gorge 3 mai 1999 1/58 MarKant e c o n s e i l s Jean-Noël Gorge, Oct 18th 2006 1/29 EPITA IT Markets Basic Finance and Marketing Oct 18th