Page 2-4: Natural Gas Page 5-8: Electricity Markets Page 9 ... · in December, Interfax reports, citing Ukrtransgaz CEO Ihor Pro-kopiv. Pipeline operators in both countries have agreed

The information contained herein constitutes confidential information which belongs to Schneider Electric. This document is provided as a resource to Schneider Electric clients for their exclusive use. Redistribution of this material is prohibited.

��Quarterly Energy Outlook

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Page 5-8: Electricity Markets

Page 9-10: Carbon Permits

Page 11-13: Oil and Products

Page 14-30: Price Forecasts

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Quarterly Outlook 2015European Energy Outlook

Schneider Electric | Global Research & Analytics

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LNG Gross Receipts Source: Bloomberg, SE Global Research & Analytics.

Europe should experience natural gas price consolidation through Q3. Suppressed demand and global LNG oversupply present bearish influences going forward.

• Structural demand • UK natural gas demand averaged 196 mcm/d in Q2 2015, which is slightly lower than 198

mcm/d of the same period last year. Demand in Q3 2015 is expected to average ~173 mcm/d, compared to 167,5 mcm/d of Q3 2014. Natural gas prices are expected to fall, which will incentivize coal to gas switching—especially in the UK, where carbon is 3 times more expensive than the current carbon price.

• We affirm our prior 2015 demand target of 227 mcm/d. However, a combination of increas-ing energy efficiency, growing use of renewable electricity, and a sluggish economic envi-ronment mean natural gas demand should remain in structural decline.

• Low-priced LNG and crude markets weigh on European gas prices • European consumers should continue to experience the benefit of increased and lower-

priced LNG cargoes as global capacity additions outpace demand. • We expect the depressed global LNG price environment to continue in the near term, with

import prices remaining below $10/MMBtu through the summer.

• Electricity sector has the ability to absorb low-priced gas • Whenever near-term prices fall close to 40 p/th, traders in the electricity sector begin to eye

natural gas as a substitute for coal. Because of this switching point, a low-end resistance comes into play. This should limit further downside risk.

• Germany provides an example of a country who is moving away from coal and shifting towards others sources for power generation. Germany has unveiled a capacity reserve plan that includes shutting down 2,7 GW of lignite-fired capacity permanently in 2021-2024. To replace the capacity from the lignite-fired plants, Germany is planning on lifting the re-serve capacity to 4 GW through 2020. The new capacity will come from other sources, such as natural gas.

Demand (Forecast)Source: GIE, SE Global Research & Analytics.

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• Production cap at Groningen field • The highest Dutch administrative court ruled in mid-April to halt pro-

duction at the Groningen Field’s Loppersum well clusters allowing production to remain at the minimum levels required to keep the wells open. Historically the Netherlands has been able to meet win-ter demand during peak months with a limited draw on the clusters when temperatures are mild. However, periods of severe cold spells in the coming winter could require a stronger draw on the Norg stor-age site to supplement lower production from the region.

• The court decided in late June to lower the production cap at Gron-ingen gas field to 30 bcm following the expansion of the Norg field, which is a semi-depleted gas field that is used to shape production for Groningen. This change should not affect the Netherland’s abil-ity to meet domestic and continental demand as the Norg field will help to meet the other 3 bcm that the Netherlands needs. Currently Dutch production has reached 16,5 bcm in the first half of the year, leaving 13,5 bcm of production for the last six months of the year.

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European StorageSource: GIE, SE Global Research & Analytics.

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• Continental demand dynamics• Centrica, the UK’s largest gas supplier, proposed a new

plan at the end of last year to start 2 huge gas storage projects at Baird and Caythrope.

• Due to lack of government support, these plans have been shelved. Baird would have been able to meet 13,5 days of peak demand, which would have made it the sec-ond largest gas storage facility behind Rough.

• The UK remains extremely reliant on imports with only 15 days of gas supply in storage compared to countries like Germany, who has 99 days of gas storage, and France, who has 122 days of gas storage.

• The UK government found that not subsidizing the gas storage that Centrica proposed would save consumers £750m total over a decade.

• In June, Belgian natural gas usage slid to 9,38 TWh, com-pared with 9,63 TWh one year earlier. Power plants de-mand decreased 15% year-over-year to 2,73 TWh. Ex-ports slumped 18% to 16,71 TWh.

• German slow Injections persist to fill ~69% of storage before 1 October, compared to the 83% fullness at the start of the 2013-2014 winter. The third quarter will likely see a sharp increase in injection demand to complement the recent low levels.

• Germany plans to close lignite-fired facilities with a com-bined capacity of 2,7 GW and plans to replace a number of coal-fired plants with gas-fired plants in 2017-2020.

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• Geopolitical tension between Ukraine and Russia• Ukraine has halted purchases of Russian gas since July 1, after

Russia reduced the discount by 60% and declined to sign a three-way accord with the EU through the winter heating season. Accord-ing to data from grid operator, Ukraine is only importing gas from Slovakia, after halting deliveries from Hungary July 1 and shipments from Poland May 1.

• Ukraine, with 12 billion cubic meters (423,8 billion cubic feet) of in-ventory at the start of July, needs 19 billion to 20 billion, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe and researcher Eurasia Group.

• Ukraine seeks to build a gas link from Poland, which would allow gas shipments to Ukraine to rise to as much as 10 billion cubic me-ters (350 billion cubic feet) a year from 1,5 billion, according to An-driy Kobolyev, chief executive officer of NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy.

• Ukraine plans to boost gas imports form Slovakia. Natgas import capacity may be raised to 55-57 mcm/day from current 41 mcm/day in December, Interfax reports, citing Ukrtransgaz CEO Ihor Pro-kopiv. Pipeline operators in both countries have agreed on increase.

• Moving into 2016, Ukraine intends to buy 1-2 bcm of gas from Ro-mania. Romania is now seeing a surplus in their gas extractions and is ready to put some of it on the market.

• Changing global LNG dynamics • As prices and demand in the Asia-Pacific region continue to remain

flat, countries in northwest Europe can expect to continue receiving an influx of LNG cargoes from producing countries, mainly Qatar.

• There are three Australian projects coming online this year, which will provide further headwinds to Asian LNG prices. Due to higher costs and regional proximity, Australia will only continue to export to Asia-Pacific countries. Other exporters will find sending supply to Europe more attractive.

• In addition, Indonesia has a project coming online later in the year, before inaugural US LNG exports start in late 2015- early 2016 via the Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana.

• European LNG inventories rose to multi-year highs late last year with the influx of cargoes, only to see stocks drawn down to meet higher demand from a colder end to winter.

Nordstream FlowsSource: Bloomberg, SE Global Research & Analytics.

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• An oversupplied coal market weighs on electricity

• Chinese import demand in January-May declined 40% year-on-year, and as growth expec-tations continue their lackluster trend these numbers are likely to fall further. Producers are shutting down higher cost mines. Representative of the industry as a whole, the last UK coal mines are closing by the end of the year.

• While ARA coal prices have consolidated between $60 and $56/mt since April, the global coal market remains bearish due to oversupply, which is expected to persist through 2015.

• However, a weak euro and a recent uptick in the Baltic Dry Shipping Index is easing this bearishness for European consumers because coal is priced in US dollars.

• Oil-linked gas contracts pressure electricity prices lower

• The natural gas market is providing headwinds to the electricity sector, especially in re-gions that rely heavily on the fuel. This phenomenon is largely due to the cyclical decrease in natural gas demand and a continued low oil price environment. Because of the lagged nature of oil-linked gas contracts, the bearish crude market will continue to place pressure on gas prices through the year.

• Mandated demand reductions ease commodity costs

• Approaching the 2015 UN climate summit, the EU has announced self-imposed green-house gas reduction obligations of 40%. One of the foundational strategies the EU will pursue is the increase in energy efficiency by 30% as compared to the status quo by 2030. This equates to ~1,5% reduction in total energy sales.

• The European economy is expected to expand faster in 2015 than in 2014, averaging close to 1,5% growth over the next year.

• However, as the EU area PMI implies manufacturing expansion at a modest pace, the ef-fect of building and appliance efficiencies is overshadowing this economic activity to yield expectations of a year-on-year decrease in demand in 2015, despite 2014 being the warm-est year Europe has seen since the 1500s.

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Electricity prices should ease lower through the end of 2015 due to declining demand and bearishness in input fuel prices.

UK Power Generation by SourceSource: Bloomberg, SE Global Research & Analytics

API2 (ARA) Price and Baltic Dry IndexSource: Bloomberg, SE Global Research & Analytics.

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• Solutions to renewable generation growth

• Because renewable generation is less consistent than thermal and hydro generation, a growing discussion is occurring about how to best adjust national and international grids to minimize the cost of this intermittency. While the lowest average cost solution would be to allow prices to fluctuate based on market conditions, many cus-tomers are wary of allowing increased short-term volatility. One solution that is being adopted in several countries is a capacity reserve system. A capacity market essentially pays thermal gen-erators to have capacity available but unused. This compromise increases total system cost in exchange for reduced commodity price fluctuations.

• Carbon market influence • Carbon prices are expected to be range-bound in the coming

months, which should not impact electricity prices. • Emissions are expected to decrease by 0,5% annually through

2020, which is bearish for prices. However, over 75% of market participants expect carbon to trade above �9/mt by 2020. Specula-tion around this belief will likely be a bullish influence on electricity prices instead. .

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• Flow-based coupling (FBC) in central-western European day-ahead markets began in May, with results fully within expectations. German and French prices increased to meet the decreasing prices from the Netherlands and Belgium. This price consolidation is due to the FBC system’s ability to improve utilization efficiencies of existing infrastructure between the participating countries.

• Another recent example of efficiency created from interconnection is through the Italian hour-ahead market coupling with its neighbors. During the first month of operation, prices in Italy’s northern zone equaled prices in France 28% of the time. In the month prior, this price parity occurred less than 1% of the time.

• Beyond improving platform coordination, Europe is also increasing the physical interconnectivity of its markets through long-distance power lines. These infrastructure additions allow for the minimiza-tion of volatility due to plant outages and variable renewable gen-eration.

• Progress toward 2020 carbon goals • In 2009, EU member states set binding targets to source 20% of

member-states’ energy from renewables by 2020. While the union as a whole is on pace to meet these targets, several states are likely to fall short, the UK in particular.

• At the same time the UK has imposed its carbon tax, its new con-servative government is making the addition of onshore wind farms difficult, which could further increase the cost of electricity as on-shore wind is one of the least expensive renewable sources.

• Germany, which has a self-imposed reduction goal of 40% by 2020, is expected to satisfy the EU 20% reduction target but not the country’s overly-ambitious goal. The Merkel government has decided to pay lignite plants to close over the next five years rather than impose a carbon levy. This policy shift will likely result in de-creased commodity costs with overall increased cost to German ratepayers. Further, lower German electricity prices should trans-late into lower prices across Europe, as the country is central to cross-border exchanges.

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• Project partners have officially launched flow-based market coupling in the central western Europe region and it has taken an immediate effect on prices. The Belgium Belpex day-ahead price settled below the Dutch APX for the first time since the beginning of March. It recorded a �1,84/MWh drop to �37,56/MWh.

• Electrabel has pushed back its expected restart date for its 1 GW Doel 3 and Tihange 2 nuclear reactors — which have been offline since March 2014 due to safety concerns — until November. How-ever, this timeline still needs approval by FANC. This delay in op-erations at the reactors, especially as we approach the fall and win-ter, will keep the supply and demand balance tighter for the area and bolster power prices.

Czech Republic • The State utility CEZ has predicted that its power output will in-

crease by 11% to 64,9 TWh this year, up from 58,3 TWh of genera-tion for 2014. Coal generation is expected to grow 19% year-on-year and reach 30,2 TWh by the end of the year. Nuclear is ex-pected to increase from 30,3 TWh last year to 31,8 TWh in 2015.

France • The FBC system has thus far brought prices upward to converge

with Dutch and Belgian prices. Overall power flows from France to the Netherlands and Belgium have increased, but flows between France and Germany haven’t showed much change, having only increased by 100 MW. The French day-ahead base load has in-creased to �32,03/MWh since the flow-based coupling began, as opposed to the �30,63/MWh witnessed beforehand.

• There are no supply concerns for the summer in France, even in severe conditions. The available supply in normal conditions is ex-pected to be slightly lower than last year, but available resources remain adequate. Available supply in severe conditions is the same as last year.

Generation Mix Source: Bloomberg, SE Global Research & Analytics.

Germany

• A newly proposed plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the power sector would instantly force RWE to close 17 out of 20 lignite-fired units when the plan is enforced in 2017 and most likely cause the remaining 3 units to close by 2020. This move would cause a rapid exit from Germany’s lignite-based electricity production market and therefore increase prices in Germany’s wholesale power mar-ket. Lignite provides just under 44% of RWE’s installed German capacity and lignite’s decline would lead reduce supply security.

• After implementation of FBC, power flows from Germany to Belgium increased, but the biggest jump has come from Germany to the Netherlands. The average export to the Netherlands the first week of FBC was 3,6 GW, which was an increase of over 50% from the prior weeks of May when exports averaged 2,2 GW.

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• The 2 GW Sorgente Rizziconi interconnector between Sicily and mainland Italy is expected to be operational later this year. Further, the 1.2 GW Piossasco-Grand’lle line with France and the 1.0 GW Italy-Montenegro line will likely be commissioned in 2019. These projects will contribute to further price convergence.

Netherlands • The Netherlands is not expecting any supply problems this summer

as new coal-fired plants have provided them with additional reliability resources. It is also expected that the country will maintain ade-quate export and import capacities.

Nordpool • Finland is experiencing a cut in their feed-in-tariff (FIT) for wind

farms that could be up to 20%. The FIT began as having a limit of 2,5 GW but now is being cut to 2 GW, making it more difficult to start wind projects in the area. Finland currently has 900 MW of wind capacity and has 900 MW more that are approved for funding and will be built in the next 2 years.

Poland • Polish grid operator PSE has initiated its installation of the first of

four phase-shifting transformers on the 1 382 GW interconnector between Mikulowa, Poland and Hagenverder, Germany. Designed to facilitate greater efficiencies in transmission and to better harness erratic wind flows from Germany, the four phase shifters are likely to be completed by early 2016. PSE’s German counterpart, 50 Hertz, also has plans to install phase shifters on the 457 MW line from Vier-raden, Germany to Krajnik, Poland by 2017. Once completed, the phase shifters are expected to increase total export flows between the nations by ~2 GW .

Spain • The Spanish grid is unlikely to see significant supply-side disruptions

this summer, even as wind generation is expected to remain fairly low. The Spain-France interconnector will provide further stability to power supply, but it is unknown when the testing phase will end and the interconnector will be operational.

UK • A low-price crude environment is providing a downdraft to LNG and

natural gas prices in Europe. Along with the relatively strong pound, the UK electricity markets stand to benefit from these cheap com-modities, despite the recent carbon floor increase to £18/tonne.

• An interconnector between the UK and Norway has achieved final financial approval and the ownership agreement has been signed. The 730 km cable, set to be complete in 2021, will be the world’s longest undersea electricity interconnector. In February, the UK and Belgium signed the final agreement for the 1 GW Nemo interconnector between the two countries.

• Although high demand is expected, strong generation margins and sufficient interconnector capacity with France and the Netherlands are likely to stabilize the supply-demand picture in the UK power industry this summer. Throughout the summer, the UK is likely to remain a net power exporter to Ireland.

Eurozone Quarterly GDP GrowthSource: Bloomberg, SE Global Research & Analytics

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Carbon should remain range-bound through 2018 with modest near-term increases possible due to lower fossil fuel costs. Longer term, energy efficiencies and the Market Stability Reserve should keep the market stable.

• Energy efficiency overshadows economic growth to shrink electricity demand

• European economic growth should average 2,0% in Q4 of 2015, which is a slight increase over our last quarter expectations.

• Even as many indicators imply expansion, such as the EU manufacturing data, energy efficiencies in buildings and appliances are working to push electricity and carbon demand in the opposite direction. Our expectation is for a year-on-year decrease in carbon demand in 2015, despite the fall in ETS related emissions of 3,7% in 2014.

• Because of the expected demand reductions in the electricity sector, the carbon market’s oversupply situation is projected to continue through 2017.

• Carbon-intensive fuels remain bearish, keeping demand for carbon stable

• We forecast weaker coal, natural gas and oil prices over the coming year, which is likely to incentivize a slight increase in carbon-emitting fuel use. While there is limited potential for growth from power-sector coal demand, low fuel commodity prices should keep carbon markets somewhat supported in the near-term.

• As Germany continues its nuclear divestiture scheme, further reliance on coal toward the by 2018 is likely.

• Policy outlook

• The European carbon market participants are currently coordinating the shape of the Mar-ket Stability Reserve (MSR), which is now set to take effect in 2019.

• The purpose of the MSR is to stabilize the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) and sup-port market prices by placing excess emissions allowances in a reserve.

Forecast of Carbon Emissions Source: Bloomberg, SE Global Research & Analytics.

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Carbon Weekly Continuation ChartSource: ProphetX, SE Global Research & Analytics.

• Oversupply• According to a Reuters survey conducted earlier this year, only 38%

of compliance entity respondents replied with certainty that their companies did not hold an ETS surplus, while 24% of respondents did not know whether they held a surplus. The uncertainty around precise need is part of the reason the market maintains a surplus and yet prices have risen over the past two years. If an entity plans four or more years into the future for production assumptions and carbon permit needs, it is logical that companies err on the side of over-hedging, especially when over 75% of market participants be-lieve prices in will trade above �9/mt by 2020.

• Carbon Support and Resistance • The carbon market continues to trade range-bound inside the green

highlighted area on the weekly chart at right. This is a signal for more indecision within the marketplace, and traders have no clue which way to take trend. The long-term black horizontal trend line marks key resistance, or an area of selling interest. The line also shows the market still in a primary bearish market.

• Price was trading above the black horizontal trend line back in 2012. When price eventually broke to the downside the black trend line level became a ceiling of resistance. Internal momentum is rather weak to build trend, so more price action within the green range is likely to trade in the weeks to come, but the overall trend stays with a bearish sentiment.

• Carbon Market Reform

• The European parliament has voted to reform the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), and it will take effect in 2019, two years earlier than previously planned. Under the new reforms, if the surplus of emis-sions allowances exceed a certain level on the market, a portion of the carbon credits will be set aside. A market stability reserve (MSR) will be introduced for the excess credits until the price of car-bon recovers. If the prices do recover, the credits can be released back into the market as needed.

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OPEC’s oversupply strategy, combined with a stronger dollar, should maintain the weak price environment through the remainder of the year.

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• OPEC’s change in stance means global market remains oversupplied

• In the past ten months, OPEC has shifted its production strategy from balancing the mar-ket to capturing new market share by pushing out low-cost producers.

• On June 5th, OPEC announced it will maintain its production quota at 30 mmbbl/d. This act alone is bearish, given the previous five quarters have seen global production out-weigh demand. Further, the cartel’s production has increased to ~31.5 mmbbl/d since the price slump, providing an additional bearish stimulus on prices.

• Stronger US dollar should pressure crude lower

• Even if interest rates rise this year, it is our expectation the dollar should remain a more attractive destination than other global currencies. Even though American economy is relatively strong at the moment, Europe is enacting a new stimulus program to revive its economy — as is Japan.

• Given the inverse relationship between the US dollar and crude oil prices, our bullish dollar view translates to a bearish outlook in oil markets.

• North American production growth levels off

• The US oil rig count is in the process of bottoming out, now below 630 from a peak of 1 608 last October. Although we have seen 29 consecutive weeks of losses, the magni-tude of the drops continues to lessen: six of the last seven weeks have seen declines in the single digits.

• Despite the 60% drop in rig count since its peak, US pumping has remained strong, gain-ing approximately 650 mmbbl/d in production in the same period.

• 2015 domestic crude oil output is expected to plateau near its present 9.6 mmbbl/d level due to a low-price environment. Increasing efficiencies in major shale plays will help offset some of the effects of a diminished rig count.

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US Crude Oil ProductionSource: EIA, SE Global Research & Analytics

OPEC Production IncreaseSource: Bloomberg, SE Global Research & Analytics

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• US Dollar Index should maintain bullish primary trend

• Despite the recent bearish correction in an overall bullish market, the US dollar has been rallying since May 2014. The rally is most likely due to the anticipation for the federal reserve to hike interest rates. According to the technical analysis charting patterns, the up-side move in the US Dollar Index is far from over.

• Oil’s inverse relationship to the US dollar

• The majority of the world buys dollars in order to purchase crude oil. This gives crude oil an inverse relationship with the US Dollar Index.

• There are three pattern scenarios for the US Dollar Index (chart be-low), with the green highlighted area being the forecasted zone for the US dollar to travel this year. The bullish dollar forecast validates a move in Brent crude to examine previous 2008 lows.

• If the US Dollar Index continues to hold the yellow zone, Brent crude prices should continue to consolidate between $54 and $69. Unless there is a significant change in market fundamentals, the red zone is unlikely to be hit.

• Demand response to lower prices

• The correlation between refined crude product prices and consump-tion is weak, but a very large shift in prices can trigger significant increase in demand.

• US refineries are processing over 16 mmbbl/d of crude oil, running 1.2 mmbbl/d above the ten-year average. High refining runs com-bined with moderate stocks of refined fuels are indications of rela-tively strong consumption.

• While a lower oil price environment is spurring on higher global oil demand growth, some of this upside is being offset by a stalling global economy, which is set to grow at 3-3.5% this year.

• China’s economy appears to be slowing down significantly, dropping below a growth rate of 7% — the slowest pace in a quarter of a cen-tury. Given the strong link between energy demand and economic growth, especially in emerging markets, we should see this eco-nomic slowdown filtering through to oil demand.

• To further limit the demand reaction, a strengthening dollar makes purchasing crude more expensive for non-dollar holding consumers.

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Brent Pricing Source: Bloomberg, SE Global Research & Analytics

US Dollar Index Monthly Continuation ChartSource: ProphetX, SE Global Research & Analytics

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• Rising supply looks to test demand-driven refining margins• Refining profits have risen markedly as the low price of crude oil has

trimmed input costs. In Q2 2015, the RBOB gasoline crack spread rose ~28%; the Eurobob crack spread rose ~39%.

• European refining margins are expected to remain elevated in the short-term due to the delayed refining capacity installation of 1,5 mmbbl/d. The margins are further elevated by persistent global de-mand for oil products.

• As the end of 2015 approaches, an upswing in Middle Eastern refin-ing capabilities is expected to weigh heavily on European margins. Large refinery capacity additions by Saudi Arabia (800 kbbl/d) and the UAE (417 kbbl/d) will allow Middle Eastern products to flood the market, stealing from European profits and providing downward pressure on product cracks.

• Refining capacity is expected to expand rapidly as well in China and Indonesia. The construction of four refineries in Indonesia is ex-pected to add 1,68 mmbbl/d in capacity by 2022.

• Despite the boom in margins seen in recent months, we continue to forecast the structural decline of European refineries as growing supply from foreign refineries places pressure on European facilities.

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Gasoil Crack SpreadSource: Bloomberg, SE Global Research & Analytics.

ARA Total Product StocksSource: Bloomberg, SE Global Research & Analytics.

• Gasoil supply prepares to overtake demand • Although the Q2 rally in crude prices to ~$60/bbl has limited upside

potential, the gasoil crack spread continues to hover at ~$14/bbl at the moment as product demand growth outpaces growth in refinery capacity.

• Many European refineries continue to upgrade their facilities to mag-nify diesel output (over gasoline output) in order to better follow con-sumer demand, which is showing favor to the heavier fuel.

• Total deliveries of ICE June gasoil are forecasted at 293 800 tonnes, the highest they have reached since October 2013. The perpetual growth in gasoil supply — which has exceeded 125 000 tonnes for four consecutive months — is contributing to a European glut.

• We expect gasoil prices to follow a downward trend in the coming quarters as European stockpiles remain high and as large Middle Eastern and Asian product refineries continue to come online.

• Gasoil is mirroring the Brent crude market, and as Brent breaks key support levels and makes moves back toward previous 2008 lows, look for the gasoil contract to follow.

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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

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2015 2016 2017$100

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25% to 50% Lows

50% Low

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Rotterdam 1% HFO M+1 Low Price Probability Chart Rotterdam 1% HFO M+1 High Price Probability Chart

Documents

Page 2-4: Natural Gas Page 5-8: Electricity Markets Page 9 ... · in December, Interfax reports, citing Ukrtransgaz CEO Ihor Pro-kopiv. Pipeline operators in both countries have agreed