Pakistan Economy Security Analysis 2013-Libre

8/10/2019 Pakistan Economy Security Analysis 2013-Libre

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Pakistans Economy & Security Issues

Pakistans Economy & Security IssuesApril-June, 2013

Mohsin Khan

Korean International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) Pakistan


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Table of Contents

1. Economic Situation of Pakistan 2013.....3

2. Pakistan: State of turmoil April-May 2013...6

2.1. April, 2013.........6

2.2. May, 2013......8

2.3. June, 2013 ........10

3. References......14


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Economic State of Pakistan 2013

Summary

The cost of war against terrorism, which escalated up to $90 billion to $100 billion, has alsobeen made part of the survey. The new government need to displeasure over the patheticmacroeconomic performance during the outgoing fiscal year and directed the minister of finance

to fix responsibility for this bad situation.

The investment to GDP ratio has been consistently on the decline, raising fears about thefuture prospects of growth in the medium term. The Economic Survey 2012-13 explainedthat the per capita income will go up to $1,380 in the outgoing fiscal year compared to$1,323 in the last financial year, registering an increase by 4.3 percent.

Owing to energy shortages, the Economic Survey illustrated that Pakistan missed out its GDPgrowth target as it stands at 3.6 percent during the outgoing fiscal year against the envisaged

target of4.7 percent. The per capita income in Rupee term has increased from Rs 118085/- to Rs131543/- in

outgoing fiscal year as compared to last year. In dollar terms it increased from $ 1323 to$ 1368 in 2012-13 as compared to last year. Per Capita Income in dollar terms grew at a rateof 3.4 percent in 2012-13 as compared to 3.8 percent growth last year.

The electricity generation and distribution and gas distribution witnessed a major dip byregistering a negative growth of minus 3.2 percent during the current fiscal year 2012-13against a positive growth of2.73 percent in the fiscal year 2011-12.

Out of the GDP growth estimates of3.6 percent for 2012-13, the agriculture sector grewby 3.35 percent, industrial sector 3.49 percent and services sector 3.71 percent.

Of the agriculture growth at 3.35 percent, the growth offive major crops such as wheat,

cotton, sugarcane, rice and maize stood at 2.31 percent, other crops 6.68 percent and cottonginning witnessed a negative growth of minus 2.93 percent. The NCA estimates that thewheat production will be standing at 24.231 million tons and rice production at 61.8 milliontons. The livestock registered a growth of 3.68 percent after rebasing in 2012-13 from therevised estimates of 3.95 percent in 2011-12, forestry sector grew by 0.13 percent in 2012-13from 1.74 percent in 2011-12 and fishing sector 0.65 percent in 2012-13 from 3.77 percent ayear before.

Exports during the first ten months (July-April) of the current fiscal year reached toUS$ 20,147 million rising from US$ 19,329 million in the same period last year therebywitnessing a growth of4.2 percent.

Imports during the first ten months (July-April), however witnessed a negative growth of1.02 percent compared with the same period of last year and remained at $36.665 billionagainst $37.042 billion same period last year.


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Trade account balance recorded amarginal improvement during Jul-April FY13. Trade account deficitcontracted by 2.5 percent in Jul-April FY13 as imports (fob)

declined 0.9 percent during Jul-April, FY13 compared to sameperiod last year whereas export(fob) remained almost the samecompared to last year.

In the industrial sector, thegrowth stands at 3.49 percent inthe outgoing fiscal year withcontribution of mining andquarrying sector growth of 7.58percent, manufacturing 3.51

percent (large scale manufacturing2.83 percent and small scale 8.23percent), slaughtering 3.54 percent,electricity generation &distribution and gas distributionnegative minus 3.20 percent,construction 5.18 percent andcommodity producing sectors 3.71percent.

In the automobile sector, thegrowth in numbers of buses

declined by minus 9.9 percent,trucks negative 28.24 percent,LCVs 27 percent and motorcycles2.45 percent. The number ofproduced tractors witnessed animpressive growth of 60 percent in2012-13.

In terms ofGross Value Addition (GVA), the growth ofPakistan Railways declined by471 percent during the current fiscal year compared to the previous financial year while airtransport went up by 38.22 percent.

In the services sector, the GDP grew by 3.71 percent in the outgoing fiscal year with

contribution of wholesale and retail trade growth of 2.52 percent, transport, storage andcommunication 3.44 percent, finance & insurance 6.64 percent, housing services 3.99 percent,general government services 5.60 percent and other private services 3.99 percent.


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State of Turmoil: April-June, 2013

1. April, 2013

April witnessed considerable up surge in violence across Pakistan. Ethno-political violence in

Karachi, religio-terrorism in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and KhyberPakhtunkhwa (KP), and nationalist-separatist violence in Balochistan, meanwhile continued

unabated. The deadly wave of target killing in Karachi, started in the last week of March 2013,

continue to mount death toll during April. The deadly wave left almost 100 persons dead (due to

target killing) during the current month. Most of the persons perished in Karachi during April in

different circumstances. The data collected through ten newspapers that CRSS uses as the source,

suggests that some 533 people lost their lives in 244 incidents of violence across the country (for

details see data sheet). The violent clashes also left 520 people injured only in April.

A concise look into the casualty figures underlines that the civilians remained the major target of

violent actors, as a result of various acts of violence and terror in Pakistan. Civilians were 46 per

cent (64 percent in last month) of the total dead in April. As a whole 241 civilians were killed in

different circumstances during the month. Moreover, the data suggests that the militants fighting

against the state remained the second major target i.e. 38 percent (199) of the total dead. Clashes

also left 80 security forces personnel (16 percent of total deaths) dead and these were mostly

recorded in insurgency infested areas of FATA, Karachi and Baluchistan. Meanwhile, target

killing was the second major cause of deaths. Pie chart IIbelow shows that 37 percent of all the

violent incidents were of target killing in nature, accounting for 19 percent of the total death toll.

Numerically 100 persons were shot dead across Pakistan, as a result of 90 incidents of target

killing. Karachi witnessed the major loss of lives as a result of target killing, wherein 60 persons


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(60 percent of the total dead in target killings) assassinated during the month. The third major

cause of the violence was bomb blasts. In total, 67 persons including 59 civilians and eight

security personnel perished in this form of attacks. Meanwhile, in April, 42 dead bodies were

also recovered from different parts of Pakistan, most of them, were found in Karachi, Peshawar,

FATA and Balochistan. Likewise, five suicide attacks left 38 civilians dead.

A peer into the territory and intensity of violence underlines that Sindh witnessed major loss of

lives during the current month (as shown in bar chart below). After Sindh, KP and FATA turned

out to be the second major hub of violence, where religio-terrorism left almost 87 and 85 people

respectively, dead during the current month. Meanwhile, violence across Balochistan subsided

significantly during the course of the month.

Moreover, the sporadic waves ofsectarian violence continued to pile up misery in Pakistan. In

March seven people were killed in sectarian attacks; majority belonging to Shia minority sect, in

different areas of Sindh and KP as a result of seven violent incidents. Of the total seven attacks,

six attacks that is, 86 percent took place in Karachi alone killing six, 86 percent of the total dead

in sectarian violence. Shia sect people based in Karachi are among the frequent targets of

sectarian terrorists.

Meanwhile, data relating to the nature of violence suggests that almost 68 percent of the total

loss of lives was the direct consequence of religio-terrorism. Accumulative data of last seven

months (September-April) shows that 4427 persons have perished across Pakistan as a result of

the ongoing wave of violence. Among these,February 2013 was the most violent month.


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2. May, 2013

The month of May was historical and very crucial for the people of Pakistan for two reasons;

they were going to elect a new government to run the country for the next five years and thatthey had to show that they believed more in peaceful methods for transfer of power rather than

taking the violent route. Despite an exhibition of common consensus of the people for peaceful

transfer of power, the political campaign remained highly violent and the month of May recorded

casualties of 1301 persons (Killed 499 and Injured 702). The data collected through ten

newspapers that CRSS uses as the source, suggests that nearly 499 people lost their lives in 274

incidents of violence across the country (for details see Table 1). The violent clashes also left

702 people injured in May.

Table 1: Monthly data of casualties of violence

Like previous months, three provinces, Sindh, Baluchistan, and KPK/FATA had the highest

number of casualties during the month of May as well (Graph 1).

As usual, civilians were the highest victims of violence during the month of May and militants

and security officials had the next highest casualties. Among the civilians, the highest number of

victims was of the political candidates, activists, and supporters. The victims of violence

belonging to different political parties accounted for half of the total casualties (173 killed and

441 injured) and the victims were from all political parties that were taking part in the election

(Graph 2).

Graph 2: Violence Victims and their affiliation


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Of the 499 casualties of political violence, Taliban claimed the responsibility for 137 casualties

that took place in Karachi [1] and Orakzai, Kurrum Agency[2].

Major causes of casualties:

As in case of previous months, target killing and missile/shelling were the major causes of

deaths in May as well. Pie chart IIbelow shows that 35 percent of all the violent incidents were

of target killing in nature. Karachi suffered most of the target killing with 124 casualties (24.8

percent of the total dead) during the month under review. Meanwhile, military operations are the

second major cause for the loss of life, with militants topping the list of dead. Numerically, 121

militants, 6 security forces and 1 civilian died as a result of military operations. The third major

cause of the violence was bomb blasts. In total, 115 persons including 36 security personnel and

79 civilians perished in this form of attacks. Meanwhile, in this month 48 dead bodies were

recovered from various areas of Pakistan, specifically from Balochistan and Sindh. Some seven

suicide attacks claimed 17 civilians and 5 security forces personnel.

Target killings in Karachi:

During this month, a new trend of crime entered into the nature of violence in Karachi. The

ongoing ethno-political and religio-terrorism got mixed with the target killings of electoralcandidates and their supporters. The deadly wave of target killing in Karachi that started from the

beginning of April continued unabatedly during the month of May and most of the killings had

their links to a new kind of target killings Taliban targeting members and supporters of

secularist parties, MQM, PPP, and ANP mixed with the turf war among the local political rivals

and gangsters. Sectarianism has also taken a new shape in Karachi when religio-militants started

targeting political activists that triggered tit-for-tat killings of activists belonging to mainstream


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political parties (MQM and ANP) and religious political parties (ASWJ and JI). The wave of

target killing in Karachi left almost 124 persons dead during the current month and 64 of them

were linked to the political parties with MQM, ANP, and ASWJ appearing as the highest

affected of these incidents (Graph xxx).

Casualties of bomb attacks:

The second category of highest casualties is bomb attacks and the areas that were affected of it

during May were in KPK and FATA. Karachi also had bomb explosion during this month

(Graphs 4 & 5).

Dead bodies found during May 2013:

During May, 48 dead bodies were found from different places throughout the country and the

majority of them were found in Karachi (Graph 6)

As the election was in May, and whole country suffered astringent effect of terrorism .Ourterritory is much idealized because its geo strategic position and terrorist trying to demolish our

country infrastructure by their lethal activities. Security issue is a big question, unrest in the

country especially in FATA and K.P can cause severe consequences in people like frustration

and lake of trust on state, and these things can force people to go for Asylum. So there is a strong

need to protect the country stability by hook and crook. In this regard negotiation with Taliban

can be fruitful.

3. June, 2013

June 24, 2013TTP attack kills ten tourists, including one American; TTP spokesman announces new grouptargeting tourists; Scotland Yard officials arrest one in MQM leader's killing; Shelling kills ninemilitants in Orakzai, Khyber; 6 militants killed in Dera Bugti; Vehicle bombed in Quetta; IEDkills soldier in Bannu; Imran Khan urges national policy on terrorism; 5 people killed in Karachi;Two TTP militants arrested in Karachi; Violence along Kashmir border continues; NorthWaziristan shelling kills two girls; Death toll of Mardan bombing rises to 37; DeputySuperintendent of Traffic killed in Peshawar

June 21, 2013

Qatar talks delayed; Success in Afghan talks may depend on prison exchange; Afghan andPakistani UN ambassadors trade barbs over border security; 14 people killed in sectarian attackin Peshawar; MQM MPA shot and killed; Security forces secure Tirah valley; Militants kill twopro-government militia members; Afghan diplomat wounded in firing incident; Pakistandistances itself from Qatar Taliban office; 2 policemen shot and killed in Karachi; Final toucheson budget finalized; 12 killed in Karachi on Friday; Two militants shot and killed in Peshawar;


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Gang war suspects arrested; Police find arms cache in Khuzdar; State Bank cuts interest rates;Five killed in Karachi on Thursday.

June 20, 2013John Kerry calls on Karzai to keep peace talks moving; 6 soldiers killed in ambush nearPeshawar, TTP claims responsibility; Pakistani military reportedly convinced Afghan Taliban to

hold talks; Mullah Omar to name negotiating team in peace talks; PTI Deputy leader of KP callsfor peace talks with TTP; Two more die from Mardan attack wounds, toll at 36; Pakistan Armyto remain in Waziristan; India hopes to join NSG; IMF talks begin in Pakistan; Doctor kidnappedin Punjab; 7 more killed in Karachi; ISI chief meets with Nawaz Sharif; Interior Ministerannounces new security plan; Balochistan budget released; Woman injured in Gawadar grenadeattack.

June 19, 2013Release of Taliban prisoners aids peace talks; Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomes talks; Fivemore die in Mardan bombings, death toll at 34; Indian troops kill Pakistani girl at border; TTPclash leaves 7 dead; Pakistan to seek $4.5 billion bailout from the IMF; Stocks rise on IMF visit;

6 people killed in Karachi; Body found in bags outside Islamabad; India allows crossexamination of 2008 Mumbai witnesses; Missing persons inquiry seeks to indict 117 securitypersonnel; Frontier Corps must be subservient to government, says Senator; Nawaz Sharif meetswith General Kayani; Lt. Col succumbs to IED wounds

June 18, 2013Blast kills MPA, 26 others in Mardan; Taliban to hold talks with the U.S., Ambassador to U.N.protests U.S. drone strikes; Hafiz Saeed claims Quetta attacks not Jihad; NA debates response toU.S. drone strikes; Three bodies found in Islamabad; Balochistan prisons on high alert; Divideevident between security and civil apparatuses in terror attacks, say lawmakers; Militants kill twoin North Waziristan; Police raid London homes in connection with Imran Farooqs murder; Five

killed in Karachi; Afghan refugees may be deported; 43 arrested in Karachi; Militant killed in

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa; Kidnappers arrested in Mohmand agency; Nawaz Sharif to visit Turkey;Criminals extorting under name of Taliban; Budget wrangling continues; 3 bodies recovered;Sindh will hire 20,000 more policemen.

June 17, 201325 killed in Quetta terror attacks; BLA militants destroy the Quaid-e-Azam residency;Government officials condemn attacks; TTP extorts CEO of Islamabad business; Peshawar onhigh alert following the blasts; TTP refuses to take part in peace talks; TTP executes informant;Budgets released by provincial governments; 8 killed in Karachi; India reportedly willing to sellelectricity to Pakistan; State Department spokesman reports bilateral ties are strong; 6

policemen killed in Balochistan; Polio vaccinators gunned down; War games conclude inPakistan; Policeman killed in Peshawar; World Bank posts projected 3.4 % growth for Pakistan;Army Chief Gen Kayani meets with Nawaz Sharif.

June 14, 2013TTPs Faqir Muhammed still in Afghan custody ; al Qaeda activist arrested for killing ofprosecutor in Benazir Bhutto case; FC arrests militant with arms cache; Pakistan will buildanother nuclear facility; Six killed in Karachi; Pakistan displeased with U.S. over NSA reports;


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Six wounded in Karachi, 47 arrested; Extremists limit Lahore publication; Police official shotand wounded in Swabi.

June 13, 2013Lt. Col. killed in Khyber operation; Army declares part of Kurram clear of militants; Violenceacross Balochista, Karachi;Israel denies exporting military equipment to Pakistan.

June 12, 2013TTP re-affirms allegiance to Afghan Taliban; Pakistani forces make gains in Kurram, Khyber;Musharraf to be arrested in Islamabad; Four U.S. officials denied entry into Karachi; IEDwounds seven in Balochistan; Bomb defused in Karachi; Two killed, two wounded in Karachi.

June 11, 2013TTP claim responsibility for attack on NATO supply convoy; Gunmen kill two in attemptedkidnapping; Pakistan fertilizer plants increase security; According to British report, Israelsupplied Pakistan with arms; Frontier Corps arrests three in Quetta

June 10, 2013

Nawaz Sharif offers to address militant sanctuaries if drone attacks stop, 6 killed as militantsattack NATO convoy, Security forces conduct major offensive in Tirah Valley; Sharif eyeingrenewed talks with TTP; Zardari congratulates Sharif; Sharif and Karzai to meet; Pakistan takespart in military exercises; State businesses lose $4.1 billion a year; Iran-Pakistan pipeline will becompleted; Arrest warrant issued for Musharraf;2013-2014 fiscal budget to be released soon;NSA collected 13.5 billion reports from Pakistan in March; Security forces under attack in NorthWaziristan;PIA flight receives bomb threat; 1,500 kg worth of explosives seized by Peshawarpolice; 5 dead bodies recovered in Balochistan; Security crackdown in Hangu leads to 3 arrests;3 men gunned down in Lasbela Chowk, Karachi; Kurram clashes kill two militants; Twowounded in Bannu blasts; Dead body of missing person recovered in Quetta; Car showroomattacked in Quetta.

June 7, 2013U.S. drone strike kills six, including high value target; Al Qaeda bomb maker added toSpecially Designated Global Terrorist list; Pakistani troops kill Indian officer on Kashmir border;Nawaz Sharifs cabinet sworn in; Sharif removes top energy officials; PPPs Kursheed Shah

appointed as NA opposition leader; Pakistan Army to withdraw from Swat; Bill Gates andImran Khan to talk about polio crisis; Eight kidnapped by TTP will not be released; Dronevictims' families urge new government to end strikes; Nawaz Sharif appoints head of IB; Nomajor policy changes to occur vis--vis India; U.S. intelligence official calls Pakistan and Indiasnew tactical missiles a strategic miscalculation; Two killed in Charsadda; NATO supply driver

killed in Chaman; 10 year old released from militant rehabilitation; JUI-F protests religiousleaders arrest; Child added to revised death toll in TTP shootout; Musharrafs counsel requests

information on treason allegations; Nawaz Sharif fails to offer new information on Iran pipelineand drones; Two sentenced to death in landmark Karachi case; JUI-F urges negotiations withTaliban while citizens' petition condemns peace talks; 94 Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa checkpointsabolished; Four wounded in Karachi shootings; Grenade thrown at factory; PML-N completesPunjab cabinet.


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June 6, 2013Three TTP militants, two women killed in firefight; Nawaz Sharif prioritizes regional security;Military to brief new government; Foreign ministry spokesman rejects Sikh militancy claims;U.S. praises Pakistans democratic turnover; Over 20 militants burn down houses; IED kills 2

police officers; Karzai congratulates Nawaz Sharif; 30 militants released from rehab; Mahmoud

Ahmadinejad congratulates Nawaz Sharif; PTI President demands probe in MPAs death; JUI -Fdenies involvement in MPAs death; Peshawar officials investigate assault on MPAs home;Shabaz Sharif elected CM of Punjab; Man gunned down in Shangla; High school blown up in FRPeshawar; Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa anti-drone proposal submitted; MQM day of mourningcommences; Man gunned down in Mardan; Justice announces Article 6 might apply inMusharrafs case; Gunmen shoot one in Mastung; 8 Rangers wounded in Karachi; Zar darirefuses to give oath in Urdu; New Indian high commissioner to Pakistan appointed; Pakistans

foreign exchange reserves decline.

June 5, 2013Nawaz Sharif returns as prime minister; 9 killed in Hangu over MPA death; University employeeexecuted in Khairpur; Kidnapping leaves 3 dead, one severely wounded; MPA's home in

Peshawar attacked; Pakistans economy at low point; NATO shipping banned through Khybertoday; Drone attacks supported by U.S. population; Government disburses Rs 6.5 billion topower sector; Suicide attack foiled; 6 wounded in grenade attack; India accuses Pakistan ofencouraging Sikh militancy; Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa police arrest 828 criminals; MQM holds swayin opposition leader decision; Rangers officials order an inquiry; 29 criminals arrested in Quetta;FATA allots Rs18.5 billion for development; IMF delegation to meet in Pakistan on June 19;Punjab assembly votes leader on June 6; Musharraf willing to face charges.

June 4, 2013TTP commander arrested for MPAs murder; Pakistan Army commences war games;Nawaz

Sharif to tackle electricity crisis immediately; Indian foreign secretary apologizes to Pakistan;Nawaz Sharif submits prime ministerial nomination paperwork; Musharrafs bail petition falls

through; Rangers officials shoot unarmed man; 7 killed throughout Karachi; Protests erupt due toenergy crisis; BISP funding set to decline; ECP sets up tribunals; CM of Punjab meets withsecurity officials; 2 killed after Fareed Khan protests; Leader of the upper house resigns;Balochistan speaker and deputy speaker to take oaths.

June 3, 2013National Assembly and Nawaz Sharif sworn in; PTI MPA Fareed Khan killed by militants;Sardar Ayaz Sadiq elected speaker of the National Assembly; Wali-ur-Rehman killed on tip-offby Hakimullah supporter; High school principal killed by Taliban; Pakistan augments nuclearstockpile; IMF expected to bail out Pakistan; Asif Zardari will not run for president

again;Fighting kills 35 militants in Kurram; Nawaz disappointed by U.S. Drone attack; PTI urgesBritain to take action against MQM; IED kills two in Balochistan; India asks U.S. to extraditeMumbai plotters; Chief of BNP-M to announce party strategy; MQM supports Nawazsleadership; Musharraf may leave Pakistan; CM of Balochistan pledges to succeed or quit;IEDkills one in Bannu; Militants arrested in Swat; Suicide attack wounds two in North Waziristan;Four kidnapped in Kurram; Bomb defused at an elementary school; TTP militant arrested at


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checkpoint; Deputy Attorney General proposes force against U.S. drones; NATO containersdestroyed by gunmen; World Bank approves $100 million loan to Punjab.

4. Refrencec:

1. The News2. Dawn

3. The Express Tribune

4. Pakistan Today

5. Daily Times

6. The Frontier Post

7. Jang (Urdu)

8. Daily Mashriq (Urdu)

9. Aaj (Urdu)

10. The Nation

11. www.Brasstack.com

12. www.srrc.com

13. http://www.criticalthreats.org/pakistan/pakistan-security-brief

14. www.osac.com (The Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC))

15. United state official report 2013 (Pakistan Crime and conflict situation , 2013)

16. http://www.amnesty.org/en/region/pakistan

17. http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/

18. Economic survey of Pakistan 2012-13

19. State bank of Pakistan 2013

20. www.icamp.edu.pk

Documents

Pakistan Economy Security Analysis 2013-Libre