Pakistan Water Sector Strategy Vol4

Ministry of Water and Power Office of the Chief Engineering Advisor/ Chairman Federal Flood Commission

PAKISTAN WATER SECTOR STRATEGY

DETAILED STRATEGY FORMULATION Volume 4 October 2002

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PREFACE Pakistan has been blessed with a rich water resource which has driven, mainly through agriculture, the economic development of the country. Pakistan has a long and proud history of the development of water resources and the infrastructure for delivering water to where it is needed, including the vast Indus Plain, constituting the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world. As the population continues to grow the country is approaching the utilisation limits of its water resources and Pakistan is becoming a water scarce country. As never before, there is now a strong and growing need to manage this precious resource more carefully and efficiently to ensure water for all on a sustainable basis. In recognition of this need, the Government of Pakistan, with the support of the Asian Development Bank, instituted the Water Resources Strategy Study. It was undertaken by the Ministry of Water and Power, Office of the Chief Engineering Advisor/Chairman Federal Flood Commission. The Study began in July 2001 with the main objective of preparing a road map for future development of the water sector toward more efficient service delivery and optimum utilisation of resources to meet the competing demands of all water users in the future. The Government has addressed the issue of developing the water sector through several initiatives, including the Ten Year Perspective Plan (Planning Commission, 2001), Vision 2025 (Water and Power Development Authority, 2001) and the National Water Policy (Ministry of Water and Power, Draft, 2002). Now the Pakistan Water Sector Strategy Study provides a road map for the future development of the sector. The end product of the Study comprises three main documents which are referred to in total as the Pakistan Water Sector Strategy. These are:

1. The National Water Sector Profile (NWSP), which summarises and details all aspects of the Water availability and utilisation as they exist today. As such, it will become a standard source document for future water sector work.

2. The National Water Sector Strateqy (NWSS). which identifies the key

issues and objectives for the water sector and proposals for planning, development and management of water resources and their use in all water sub-sectors.

3. The Medium Term Investment Plan (MTIP), which identifies the key

programmes and projects which should be undertaken up to 2011 which will make the initial contribution to achieve the objectives of the Strategy.

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This is a document for the whole of the water sector, in all its sub-sectors of: Water Resources Development, Urban Water Supply and Sanitation, Rural Water Supply and Sanitation, Industrial Water Supply and Pollution Control, Irrigation and Drainage, Hydropower, the Environment and Flood Protection. As 95% of our water resources are used for agricultural purposes, the role of the agriculture sector is also discussed extensively, with recommendations and a proposed strategy for a closer relationship with the water sector. The Strategy and MTIP emphasize institutional, management and financial matters as well as infrastructure. It prioritizes equity in water allocation, improving and maintaining the quality of water, the conservation of the country's water resources and the need for efficiency and financial sustainability in water service delivery. It promotes an integrated approach to water sector development and participation of all stakeholders in decision making. This is a collaborative document. The study adopted a participatory approach to ensure that all stakeholders of water have been consulted and have contributed to this Strategy and MTIP. Working Groups from each province and at the federal level were formed at the start of the Study and have been closely associated with the development of the work throughout. Four National Workshops were held to broaden the scope of stakeholder consultation, bringing people together from all areas to contribute to the Strategy document. The effective implementation of the Pakistan National Water Sector Strategy and its accompanying Medium Term Investment Plan is paramount to the continued development of Pakistan's water sector and economy well into the 21st century.

Mirza Hamid Hasan, Secretary, Water and Power 4 October, 2002

Riaz Ahmad Khan, Chief Engineering Advisor, Ministry of Water and Power 4 October, 2002

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The Ministry of Water and Power, Government of Pakistan, Office of the Chief Engineering Advisor/Chairman Federal Flood Commission led the development of the Water Sector Strategy under the guidance of Mr. Riaz Ahmad Khan. Mr. Asjad Imtiaz Ali, Project Director, also chaired the Federal Working Group.

The Provincial Working Groups contributed significantly to the content and quality of the Strategy and Investment Plan for their respective provinces under the guidance of their conveners:

Mr. A. Salam Khan / Mr. Munawwar Khan Mandokhel, Secretary, Irrigation and Power Department, Balochistan Mr. Fazal Abbas Maken, Secretary, Irrigation and Power Department, NWFP Mr. Javed Majid, Secretary, Irrigation and Power Department, Punjab Mr. Idrees Rajput / Mr. Hifz ur Rehman / Mr. Meer M. Perhyar, Secretary Irrigation and Power Department, Sindh

The Ministry of Water and Power, Office of the Chief Engineering Advisor/Chairman Federal Flood Commission also extends sincere thanks for the contributions of:

Dr. Mutawakkil Kazi, Secretary Planning & Development for his support and valuable comments during the study.

Mr. Ahmad Khan Bhatti, Member Water, WAPDA for his close involvement and informed recommendations throughout the Study.

Ministry of Water and Power also acknowledges and appreciates the tremendous effort provided by the Consultants on the Study, under the Team Leadership of Mr. Tim Hannan and Mr. Muhammad Aslam Rasheed. The Consultant’s Consortium was led by Halcrow Group Ltd. of the UK, in association with ARCADIS Euroconsult (AEC) of the Netherlands, Halcrow Pakistan (PVT) Ltd., Euroconsult Pakistan (PVT) Ltd., and Asianics, Pakistan.

The Water Resources Strategy Study was funded through the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Technical Assistance programme and the Ministry of Water and Power gratefully acknowledges their assistance.

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The documents which make up the Pakistan Water Sector Strategy are:

Volume 1, Executive Summary, which is the summary of the Water Resources Strategy Study, under which the Water Sector Profile, Strategy and MTIP were developed;

Volume 2, National Water Sector Strategy, which is a concise presentation of the Water Sector Strategy;

Volume 3, Medium Term Investment Plan, which details the projects and costs for the MTIP, in support of the Water Sector Strategy;

Volume 4, Detailed Strategy Formulation, which presents the supporting information and considerations for the formulation of the Strategy;

Volume 5, National Water Sector Profile, which presents detailed background information on the water sector in Pakistan.

Disclaimer:

The Water Sector Strategy document presented herein brings out the proposed road map to meet the objectives of the National Water Policy for a sustainable and environmentally and economically sound water sector in Pakistan.

This has, however, yet to pass through the formal channels of approval, with possible fine tuning. The adopted country Strategy for the Water Sector will follow this approval.

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List of Abbreviations

A Acre ADB Asian Development Bank AJ&K Azad Jammu and Kashmir AWB Area Water Board BCIAP Balochistan Community Irrigation and Agriculture Project BCM Billion Cubic Meter BOD Biochemical Oxygen Demand BOOT Build-Own-Operate-Transfer CBO Community Based Organization CCI Council of Common Interest CDP Community Development Project CDA Capital Development Authority CDWP Central Development Working Party DSES Drainage Sector Engineering Study COD Chemical Oxygen Demand CTW Community Tubewell DO Dissolved Oxygen DRIP Drainage and Reclamation Research Institute of Pakistan ECNEC Executive Committee of National Economic Council EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EPA Environmental Protection Agency EPD Environmental Protection Department ESA External Support Agency FANA Federally Administered Northern Areas FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FCT Federal Capital Territory FFC Federal Flood Commission FGW Fresh Ground Water FPSP Flood Protection Sector Project FO Farmer Organization GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product GOP Government of Pakistan GW Ground Water GWh Gigawatt hour Ha Hectare HRD Human Resources Development IDA International Development Agency of World Bank

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IEE Initial Environmental Examination IRSA Indus River System Authority IWASRI International Waterlogging &Salinity Research Institute IWMI International Water Management Institute IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management KESC Karachi Electric Supply Company LBOD Left Bank Outfall Drain M Million M&E Mechanical and Electrical Mha Million Hectare MIS Management information System Mt Million Ton MTIP Medium Term Investment Plan MWP Ministry of Water and Power NCS National Conservation Strategy NDP National Drainage Project NEPRA National Electric Power Regulation Authority NEQs National Environmental Quality Standards NGO Non Government Organization NIAB Nuclear institute of Agricultural Biology NOC Non Objection Certificate NSDS National Surface Drainage System NWC National Water Council NWFP North Western Frontier Province NWPo National Water Policy OFWM On-Farm Water Management O&M Operation and Maintenance PARC Pakistan Agriculture Research Council PC-I Planning Commission Proforma I PCRWR Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources PDWP Provincial Development working Party PEPC Pakistan Environment Protection Council PEPO Pakistan Environment Protection Ordinance PHED Public Health Engineering Department PIDAs Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authorities PMU Project Management Unit PPSGWDP Punjab Private Sector Ground Water Development

Project PSP Private Sector Participation RBOD Right Bank Outfall Drain SAR Sodium Absorption Ratio SCARP Salinity Control and Reclamation project

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SGW Saline Ground Water SHYDO Sarhad Hydropower Development Organization SMO SCARP Monitoring Organization TA Technical Assistance TDS Total Dissolved Solids TYPDP Ten Years Prospective Developments Plan 2001-2010 UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USD United States of America Dollar WAPDA Pakistan Water and Power Development authority WASA Water and Sanitation Authority WB World Bank WHO World Health Organization WRSS Water Resources Strategy Study WUAs Water Users Associations WWF World Wide Fund for Nature

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DETAILED STRATEGY FORMULATION

Contents 1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Study Background 1 1.2 The Process of the Study 1 1.3 Study Objectives 1 1.4 Summary of the Terms of Reference 2 1.5 The Policy Environment 5 1.6 Organisation of Volume 4 5

2 COUNTRY SETTING 7 2.1 Geographical Setting 7 2.2 Social Setting 7 2.3 Economic Setting 9 2.4 Administrative Setting 12 2.5 The Present Situation in the Water Sector 13 2.6 Primary Issues in the Water Sector 17 2.7 Issue Summary 31

3 STRATEGY PLANNING AND FORMULATION 34 3.1 General Approach 34 3.2 Objectives of the Strategy 35 3.3 Factors and Uncertainties in Future Water Sector Development 37 3.4 The Development of the Strategy and MTIP 39

4 THE PROPOSED STRATEGY 43 4.1 Introduction 43 4.2 Key Objectives of the Strategy 43 4.3 Summary and Main Framework of the Strategy 53 4.4 Cost Summary 56 4.5 Prioritising the Strategy 56 4.6 Monitoring and Evaluation 59

5 THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 61 5.1 Current Situation 61 5.2 Future Requirements of Agricultural Products 68 5.3 Projected Yields of Major Crops 72 5.4 Projected Irrigated Crop Areas 73 5.5 Projected Irrigation Water Requirements 76


5.6 The Strategy for the Agriculture Sector 80

6 WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT 82 6.1 Current Situation 82 6.2 Need and Potential for Additional Storage 96 6.3 Objectives 100 6.4 Constraints 102 6.5 Proposed Water Resources Development Strategy 104 6.6 Cost Estimate 110

7 URBAN WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION 111 7.1 Current Situation 111 7.2 Objectives 120 7.3 Constraints 122 7.4 Strategy for the Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Sub-Sector 124 7.5 Cost Estimate 131

8 RURAL WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION 135 8.1 Current Situation 135 8.2 Objectives 142 8.3 Constraints 143 8.4 Strategy for the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sub-Sector 144 8.5 Cost Estimate 150

9 INDUSTRIAL WATER SUPPLY AND POLLUTION CONTROL 152 9.1 Current Situation 152 9.2 Objectives 154 9.3 Constraints 154 9.4 Proposed Sub-Sector Strategy 154 9.5 Cost Estimate 157 9.6 Strategy Implementation 157

10 IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE 159 10.1 Current Situation 159 10.2 Future Irrigation Requirements 169 10.3 Objectives 175 10.4 Constraints 176 10.5 Proposed Strategy for the I&D Sub-Sector 182 10.6 Cost Estimate 191

11 HYDROPOWER 193 11.1 Current Situation 193


11.2 Demand Projections 197 11.3 Objectives 199 11.4 Constraints 204 11.5 Proposed Hydropower Development Strategy 207

12 ENVIRONMENT 209 12.1 Current Situation 209 12.2 Objectives 217 12.3 Constraints 219 12.4 Proposed Strategy for Environmental Improvement 219 12.5 Cost Estimate 223

13 FLOOD PROTECTION 224 13.1 Current Situation 224 13.2 Objectives 227 13.3 Constraints 228 13.4 Proposed Sub-Sectoral Strategy 228 13.5 Cost Estimate 229

14 SUPPORTING MEASURES AND ACTIVITIES 230 14.1 Institutional Development 230 14.2 The Legal Framework 236 14.3 Private Sector Participation 237 14.4 Regulatory and Economic Instruments for Pollution Control and

Environmental Management 240 14.5 Regulation For Water Resources Management 240 14.6 Cost Recovery and Demand Management 241 14.7 Research and Information Management 246 14.8 Media and Awareness Raising 247

ANNEXES

Annex 1: Study Terms of Reference Annex 2: Considerations for Private Sector Participation in Urban Water Supply &

Sanitation in Pakistan Annex 3: Regulatory Frameworks for Private Sector Participation in the Urban Water

Supply and Sanitation Sub-Sector Annex 4: Private Sector Participation in the Power Sector in Pakistan Annex 5: Regulatory and Economic Instruments for Pollution Control

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1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Study Background The Water Sector Strategy was developed through the Water Resources Strategy Study, initiated in July, 2001 and executed by the Ministry of Water and Power, Government of Pakistan, through the office of the Chief Engineering Adviser/ Chairman Federal Flood Commission in close association with federal and provincial Working Groups. The outcome is a five volume document, referred to as a whole as the National Water Sector Strategy.

1.2 The Process of the Study Given the importance of the outcome of the Study to the future of the Water Sector in Pakistan, a collaborative approach was followed from the outset, when five Working Groups were established, one at the Federal Level and one each for the four Provinces. The Federally Administered areas of FATA, Northern Areas and the State of Azad, Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) were included in the Federal Working Group. The collaborative approach ensured that the resulting Water Sector Strategy and Medium Term Investment Plan (MTIP) were developed by the main agencies which would be ultimately responsible for implementing them.

The Government has been engaging in developing the water sector through several initiatives, including the Ten Year Perspective Plan (Planning Commission, 2001), Vision 2025 (Water and Power Development Authority, 2001) and the National Water Policy (Ministry of Water and Power, Draft, 2002). Now the Pakistan Water Sector Strategy Study provides a road map for the future development of the Sector.

1.3 Study Objectives The objective of the Study is to develop an updated, comprehensive Water Sector Strategy with a planning horizon of 2025 to provide guidance on investment planning in, and management of, the water sector. It also provides a Medium Term Investment Plan (MTIP) with a planning horizon of 2011 with specific investment proposals.


Both the Strategy and the MTIP cover the entire water sector, as a whole and for its various sub-sectors, which are defined for this Strategy as: water resources development, urban water supply and sanitation, rural water supply and sanitation, industrial water supply and pollution control, irrigation and drainage, hydropower, the environment and flood protection. In addition there is a strategy proposal for the agriculture sector in its relationship with the water sector.

Each sub-sector has been assessed as to its current situation, future requirements, objectives for the sub-sector (to 2025), constraints to meeting those objectives, a proposed strategy for the sub-sector and a cost estimate to meet those objectives. An overall Strategy is also presented which proposes a prioritisation of investments.

1.4 Summary of the Terms of Reference The objective of the Study is to provide an updated, comprehensive strategy and a framework for the water sector within which competing demands for water and scarce financial resources can be assessed and service delivery improved. The Strategy provides guidance on investment planning in, and management of, the water sector.

The Study covers both water resource management and water service delivery, including aspects of surface and groundwater resource management, municipal and industrial water supply, rural water supply, sanitation, irrigation and drainage, hydropower generation, the environment, water logging and salinity, watershed management, and other considerations.

Specific investment proposals will be developed (as a Medium Term Investment Plan). Initially this was meant to be for the rural water sector only but it was agreed at the outset of the Study that it should go beyond this and encompass the whole of the water sector.

The Strategy and MTIP are to be responsive to the overall national development programmes, principles of economic efficiency and environmental improvement, and policy decisions on institutional reforms.


The Water Sector Strategy will be for a planning horizon of 2025, in line with the WAPDA Vision 2025 and the Global Water Partnership Pakistan Framework for Action. A summary of the key aspects is:

(i) institutional aspects of water resources management and water service delivery including their capacity for planning, implementation and management;

(ii) proposals for institutional strengthening and capacity-building programs and modalities; and

(iii) efficiency improvements in service delivery; (iv) the future role of private sector financing and private-

public sector financing partnerships; (v) improvement in information and data systems; (vi) stakeholder participation in project planning and

implementation; (vii) recommendations on criteria for screening and prioritising

proposed water development projects.

The MTIP is intended to provide guidance for investment decisions in the water sector for the period until 2011 (The TOR envisaged that MTIP will be up to 2007, but the change to 2011 was agreed to be in line with the Ten Year Perspective Plan). . These will be considered for support by ADB and other funding agencies and investors. The Main Points of the MTIP ToR are:

(i) define priority investment packages comprising infrastructure development and rehabilitation, policy support, institutional development and capacity building;

(ii) reflect the country’s development goals and policies and strategies of the ADB and other aid agencies and reflect the Government’s debt relief plan and the importance of the water sector in their overall plans;

(iii) brief project profiles will be provided for investment and TA support;

Three significant changes have been made to the initial ToR for the study. The first is that the original plan was to develop the MTIP


specifically for development of the rural sector. However, after the early assessments, it was decided that substantial work was required for all sub-sectors of the water sector, and not just in the rural environment. The scope has been increased to cover all environments and sub-sectors.

Second, the original plan had been to have a single, national strategy and a single, national MTIP. But because the provinces have responsibility for many of the sub-sectors, it was decided to consider the provinces’ specific needs and development ambitions separately. Because the objectives for the Strategy are more national in scope and would not vary among the provinces, it was decided that the strategy would be national, but that specific provincial concerns would be incorporated. Instead of one MTIP, however, there are five in total, one for the federal level, which includes projects or interventions of national scope as well as those for the federally administered areas, and one for each of the four provinces.

The third is related to the MTIP. In the initial ToR, it is stated that the MTIP should be based on two alternative scenarios regarding finance availability, combining the conditions of with and without private sector investment and with and without foreign borrowing. However, during the course of the study it was determined that there was very little chance of significant private sector investment within the period of the MTIP, except, possibly, for the hydropower sub-sector. Also, without foreign borrowing, investment in the water sector would be too limited to have an impact on the improvements needed for the existing infrastructure and expansion of the services needed to cope with the population growth. Therefore, only the required investments have been presented in the MTIP.

Concern remains, however, that the financial aspect of the MTIP, and indeed the Strategy itself, may be too ambitious. With that in mind, priorities are presented within the Strategy to guide investment decision making. Within the MTIP, ranking scores have been assigned to each project which provides priorities. These will provide guidance for the MTIP period.


1.5 The Policy Environment The Pakistan Water Resources Strategy Study has been based on work which has preceded it. Of greatest importance have been:

• Ten Year Perspective Plan (Planning Commission, 2001) • Vision 2025 (Water and Power Development Authority, 2001) • Framework for Action (Pakistan Water Partnership, 2002) • Draft National Water Policy (Ministry of Water and Power, 2002)

It has also been founded on specific inputs from the federal and provincial government departments and other stakeholders, representatives of which made up the five Working Groups that have been an integral part of this study.

Perhaps the driving force in this study has been the Vision Statement which leads the Draft National Water Policy:

THE NATIONAL WATER VISION

“By 2025, Pakistan should have adequate water available, through proper conservation and development. Water supplies should be of good quality, equitably distributed and meet the needs of all users through an efficient management, institutional and legal system that would ensure the sustainable utilization of the water resources and support economic and social development with due consideration to the environment, quality of life, economic value of resources, ability to pay and participation of all stakeholders.”

1.6 Organisation of Volume 4 Volume 4, Detailed Strategy Formulation, is presented in 14 Sections plus several Annexes. It is intended to provide background information to, and a more detailed presentation of the Strategy. Initially, the Country Setting is presented to lay the background to the Strategy. A discussion on Strategy Planning and Formulation then outlines the overall approach. This is followed by a summary of the proposed Strategy. A special section on the Agriculture Sector and recommendations for agricultural policy are presented because of its importance to the water sector. A section on Water Resources Development is also included


which, though not strictly a sub-sector of water, is a vital component of the overall Water Sector Strategy. Individual strategies are then discussed for the corresponding seven sub-sectors. The final chapter is a discussion on Supporting Measures and Activities, which will support the Strategy.


2 COUNTRY SETTING

2.1 Geographical Setting Pakistan’s total land area is 307,376 square miles (796,100 km2). As shown in Figure 2.1, administratively it is divided into four provinces: North West Frontier Province (NWFP) with 15.9% of the population, Punjab (55.1%), Sindh (22.9%) and Balochistan (4.9%), and several areas with special status, including the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA), the Northern Area (FANA), State of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and the Capital Area of Islamabad.

About half the land area comprises mountainous terrain, narrow valleys and foothills and other areas of limited productivity. Most of the remaining area lies in the Indus Plain, covering some 78,000 square miles (202,000 km2) of generally fertile alluvial land. The Indus Basin Irrigation System, the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world, commands about 36.2 M acres (14.7 M ha) and is the agricultural and economic centre of the country. All the major hydropower stations are also located in the Indus Basin.

2.2 Social Setting Pakistan’s population is currently 141 million (M) people. It is growing at a current rate of 2.61%. This growth rate is expected to reduce somewhat over the next 25 years, but the population is predicted to reach 221 M by 2025, an average growth rate over that period of 2.1%. Population growth is the single most important driving force affecting the water sector, with the increasing demands which it will place on irrigated agricultural production and non-agricultural water services.

With rapid urbanisation also taking place, the present urban population of 48 M (34% of the total), increasing at 3.7 % per annum, is predicted to be 114.5 M (52% of the total) by 2025. Urbanisation is another major driving force affecting the water sector, because of the resultant requirement for expanded and improved urban water supply and sanitation services, industrial pollution control and electricity. Rural population growth is expected to be much less, with the present total of 92 million increasing by only 15% to 106 M in 2025.


In Pakistan, poverty is an overriding social problem and its alleviation is given high priority. Although average per capita food availability of some 2,700 calories per day is adequate, malnutrition is widespread, with a reported 8M malnourished children in 1999/2000. At 62.5 years, average life expectancy is similar to that in most other South Asian countries, but infant morbidity and mortality rates amongst the under-fives are well above the regional average. Better water supplies and sanitation should help to reduce this.

Inequality, as represented by the Gini co-efficient, has increased slightly in the 1990s; the mid-1990s coefficient was 0.40, compared with 0.35-0.37 in the 1980s. Gender inequality is substantial, as indicated by the relative literacy rates; in 1999/00, 59% for males, 35% for females and 47% overall. Literacy rates have, however, improved markedly over the past decade, the respective 1989/90 figures having been only 44%, 22% and 34%. Government is now making strong efforts to reduce gender inequality and increase gender empowerment. For example, a substantial proportion of seats on the Union, Tehsil (sub-district) and District Councils under the new Devolution Policy (see below) are reserved for women. Women are therefore likely to play an increasing role in the organisation and management of water sector activities like water supply and sanitation.

2.3 Economic Setting 2.3.1 Background

In 2000/01 Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) totalled Rs 3,411 billion (US$ 56.9 billion). Average per capita income was Rs 24,500 (US$ 408 or US$ 1.12 per day). Poverty is widespread and has been rising from 28.7% in 1993/94 to 35.2% in 1998/99. Economic growth has slowed in recent years from 6.1% in the 1980s to 4.0% in the 1995-2000 period and 2.6% in 2000/01. For planning purposes an annual GDP growth rate of 3% has been assumed for 2002-03, 4% for 2004-05 and 5% thereafter. These assumptions are in line with the latest ADB forecast1.

1 ADB (April 2002): Pakistan Economic Update


Fiscal year 2001-022 has been most eventful for the economy of Pakistan. The September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the USA, subsequent war in Afghanistan, and mobilization of Indian and Pakistan armies on their common border following the December 13, 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament building triggered serious security concerns in the country. These security concerns, together with slowdown of the global economy, have adversely impacted the Pakistan economy. On the positive side, lifting of economic sanctions by donor countries and signing of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility in December 2001 with the International Monetary Fund have opened up possibilities of inflow of substantial financial assistance from multilateral and bilateral donors in support of the ongoing reform program. Along with the greater access to European Union markets, this has made it possible to achieve sustainable, higher growth in a much shorter period than earlier projected. The rescheduling of the country's bilateral external debt by the Paris Club has further reduced the vulnerability of the Pakistan economy.

2.3.2 Agriculture Agriculture is the largest sector of the economy, with primary commodities accounting for 25% of GDP and 47% of total employment, and contributes more than 60% of foreign exchange earnings. The industrial sector has been growing faster than the agricultural sector, which, in fact, has been somewhat stagnant over the past few years. Manufacturing accounts for 17% of GDP, though textiles, which is a secondary product of agriculture, accounts for a considerable portion of the output of the industrial sector.

2.3.3 Industries and Services As important as agriculture has been, it is unlikely that labour requirements in the agriculture sector will grow at anywhere near the population growth rate. The Strategy addresses the need for increased agricultural production, but this will be achieved mainly through increases in crop yield and intensification of existing irrigation area, with only minor horizontal expansion. Also, with economic improvements, mechanisation of agriculture will grow. In short, it will be the industrial

2 July 2001 – June 2002


sector, not the agricultural sector which will provide the jobs in the future. Rapid growth of the industrial sector will be necessary to provide them.

Manufacturing accounts for 17% of GDP, though textiles, which is a secondary product of agriculture, accounts for a considerable portion of this sector. As the share of the industrial sector increases over time, an appropriate balance will be needed to ensure both irrigation supplies to produce the raw materials for industry, and adequate water supplies for industries themselves. Effective pollution control will also become increasingly important.

2.3.4 Hydropower The water sector also makes a substantial contribution to power generation. Hydropower accounts for 5,009 megawatts (MW) of the total installed generation capacity of 17,980 MW.

2.3.5 Availability of Finances A key parameter influencing the Water Sector’s future development will be the availability of government funds for public sector capital investment and recurrent expenditure. There has been a substantial public sector budget deficit for many years, ranging from 5.3% of GDP (2000/01) to 8.8% (1990/91), with some reduction in public expenditure over time (from around 26% in 1990/91 to 21.8% in 2000/01), but also a slight parallel decline in revenue generation. Considerable efforts are now being made to reduce the fiscal imbalance, and the fact that the 5.3% deficit in 2000/01 was the lowest in the past decade is encouraging. Nevertheless, public sector funding can be expected to continue to be a serious constraint on the water sector, as it is in many developing countries.

Donor assistance has provided disbursements in loans and grants of around US$ 2.4 billion per annum in the 1994/95 to 1998/99 periods. For investment planning purposes the assumption made is that total donor funding would average about US$ 1.6 billion per annum (at 2000/01 prices) over the period up to 2011. Of this total, about US$ 360 million (22%) is assumed to be available to the water sector if there are adequate and appropriate investment opportunities.


At present, there is little scope for significant private sector participation in the municipal water and hydro-power sub-sectors. While an important government aim is to increase it, there has been little tangible action on improving the climate to attract investors.

The Asian Development Bank has been providing assistance to the Government of Pakistan since 1968, and to date it has provided a total of US$11.5 billion in aid to the country. In 2001, ADB provided a total of US$ 957 million to Pakistan. ADB's strong commitment to Pakistan will continue with over US$ 800 million in average annual assistance for the period 2002 to 2005. In particular, ADB is providing major policy based assistance to support the Government's economic and governance reform agenda.

The upper level of annual investment for the Water Sector is estimated at Rs 40 billion (US$ 667 million) at present. Based on past trends and expected increases in the availability of external financing, the total investment during the period of the Medium Term Investment Plan (MTIP) could be of the order of Rs 500 billion (US$ 8.3 billion), inclusive of the contribution by the Pakistan Government. On-going commitments for the water sector amount to Rs 209 billion (US$ 3.5 billion), leaving a budget space for new projects of Rs 291 billion (US$ 4.9 billion) during the MTIP period. It is assumed that the annual disbursements will be similar, unless a specific initiative for a large project (such as large storage) is undertaken.

A more detailed discussion of the available funding is presented in Annex B of Volume 3, The Medium Term Investment Plan.

2.4 Administrative Setting Pakistan has a federal system of government and the provinces enjoy a considerable degree of autonomy. The water resource is a national (Federal) responsibility, but irrigation management and agriculture, as well as rural and urban water supply, pollution and other water-related concerns, are provincial subjects.

A major change in the country’s administrative structure has been the recent introduction of the Devolution Plan, as promulgated under the Local Government Ordinance of August 2001. Its two main features are


the decentralisation of government functions and the devolution of power to the lowest level practicable, in order to increase participation and improve efficiency. The new system envisages the elected local bodies at the Union Council, Tehsil, Town, District and City District level having greatly increased responsibilities. District government is now empowered to perform the majority of provincial government tasks, including planning and execution of development projects and the levying of taxes. Financial authority for the management of 30 government departments has been decentralised to the District level.

For the water sector the most important change is that the operations of the provincial PHEDs (Public Health Engineering Departments), responsible for urban and water supply and sanitation in all but the largest cities, are now managed by District and municipal bodies rather than at the Divisional and Provincial level. Irrigation, drainage and flood control are, however, not directly affected by these changes.

In principle, these devolution measures are a move in the right direction but, as yet, it is too early to assess their impact. In some respects they represent a return to the pre-1974 situation, when the District administration enjoyed considerable authority in its area. The important difference is that in the pre-1974 period authority was in the hands of appointed officials such as the district Deputy Commissioners rather than elected representatives. The Devolution Plan therefore represents a very positive change in direction and is expected to be beneficial to public sector management throughout the country.

Unattractive staff salaries and incentives and inadequate funding for recurrent costs in water infrastructure, compounded by low cost recovery and unsatisfactory institutional linkages and coordination, are limiting management ability and effectiveness. Such factors have acted as severe constraints on water sector performance, as illustrated by the widespread problem of inadequate operations and maintenance (O&M). In addition there are practical difficulties experienced in achieving effective inter-provincial cooperation in the use of Indus waters.

2.5 The Present Situation in the Water Sector The term water sector is used in this study to cover water resources, irrigation and drainage, water supply and sanitation, hydropower, the


water-related environment and flood protection. A detailed description of the sector is presented in the National Water Sector Profile, with only major issues and aspects being discussed here.

2.5.1 Surface Water Resources The hydrological units of the Kharan Desert and Makran Coastal Basin in Balochistan generate about 4 MAF and there is some potential for capturing flows to improve water availability locally. Otherwise, most of the surface water is generated in the Indus Basin. The river system of Pakistan is shown in Section 6, Figure 6.1).

The long-term sustainable average annual surface water net inflow of the Indus Basin is 142 MAF. Canal diversions over the same period have averaged 104 MAF, with an average of 38 MAF flowing downstream of Kotri Barrage to the sea. The actual requirements downstream of Kotri remain the subject of intense debate. However, this illustrates that Pakistan is now essentially at the limit of its surface water resources. The drought of the past three years has led to water shortages and illustrated just how close water use is to the limits of the resource.

2.5.2 Groundwater Resources Estimates of groundwater availability in Pakistan have been made in several studies, and vary from 45.6 MAF (56.2 BCM) to 53.3 MAF (65.7 BCM), with an average of 51.1 MAF (63.0 BCM). Abstraction of groundwater for irrigation and for urban and rural drinking water supplies is estimated that about 41.6 MAF. While these figures may suggest some potential for further exploitation, they are based on very little actual monitoring of the resources or the abstraction and should be treated with caution. Other evidence, such as increasing salinity of groundwater in many areas and declining water levels in others, suggests that there is little, if any, further potential for groundwater exploitation. The Strategy has assumed only 1 MAF of additional groundwater will be successfully exploited.

2.5.3 Agriculture Whilst there has been continuous improvement in agricultural yields they remain significantly lower than their potential. Hence water for irrigation


is not being utilised as effectively as it could with regard to crop production.

Significant amounts of water are wasted in irrigated agriculture. In fresh groundwater areas, some of this can be recovered for use through tube wells, but it is lost in saline groundwater areas and through evaporation from fields in either area.

Additional water amounting to possibly 4.7 MAF could be derived through conservation in irrigation, increasing the current irrigation efficiency of 40% to 45%. This would be accomplished through the lining of water courses in saline groundwater areas (about 4 MAF), a major component of the On Farm Water Management Programme, accompanied by intensive farmer training for improved water use, best carried out through the agricultural extension services (about 0.7 MAF). The conservation drive will require a strong and focused commitment at the national level and at the provincial level to achieve significant improvements in irrigation efficiency. Both of these options are needed, along with the continued growth of crop yields, in order to meet the food and water requirements of this next quarter century.

In summary, the agricultural needs of the future will be met through a combination of yield increases, improved efficiency in irrigation and additional water storage.

2.5.4 Water Quality It is frequently reported that water quality in the rivers is fairly good. However, the reality is that it is good in terms of salinity only (important to agriculture, but not the only indicator). Water quality in some reaches of the rivers and other surface waters in terms of DO, COD, heavy metals and other toxics is poor and deteriorating because of unchecked disposal of untreated municipal and industrial wastewater and the disposal of solid waste in the nullahs. Water quality monitoring and information management is lacking and yet is crucial to any water quality improvement programme.

Access to clean domestic water in the urban and rural sub sectors is low in terms of service as well as water quality. Access to proper sanitation facilities is also low. Additionally, only about 1% of the total wastewater


generated in the municipal sector is treated before being discharged into the rivers. Significant investment will be required to improve the current quality of service and keep up with the population growth.

2.5.5 Information and Public Awareness Information on water resources and, especially, water use, is limited and not very accessible. Information on water quality is similarly lacking. Poor information is easy to dispute and creates a climate of confusion.

Public awareness and understanding of water issues is very limited and needs to be addressed in order to garner public support for the changes in water management that will be needed in the immediate and longer- term future.

2.5.6 Project Financing At a time when Pakistan is in dire need of water sector investment, there have been considerable delays in project implementation caused by interprovincial controversy. Moreover, at present there exists a barrier to investment in the water sector. On the one hand, funding agencies, especially lending agencies, wish to promote management reforms through the funding process. On the other, those who execute the investment and implement the projects do not favour such changes. Conditions of loan effectiveness, such as institutional reforms, may be agreed by the federal agencies negotiating with the donors, with insufficient participation of the provincial agencies concerned at the time of negotiation. A feeling of ownership by the executing agencies at the provincial level may therefore be lacking. This has been the main problem with, for example, the National Drainage Program.

The funding agencies are justified in their pressure for change. Much of the money invested in the water sector over these past decades has not resulted in sustainable infrastructure. This has led to a greater strain on government finances and a deepening of the debt burden, due to the increased need to support operation and maintenance of water infrastructure and the need to borrow further for extensive and frequent rehabilitations resulting from deferred maintenance.

The funding agencies now wish to ensure that money invested in water sector projects is well invested – that it is sustainable, that it serves the


beneficiaries in the way intended and that it serves to improve and develop the water sector and the economy. Most would agree that these are important outcomes of investment.

A way forward must be found here, probably through frank discussions between the international funding agencies and the GOP as well as the provincial government agencies in their role as implementing agencies.

2.5.7 Financial Sustainability Financial sustainability in all sub-sectors is inadequate. In the urban water supply and sanitation sub-sector this is mainly due to low levels of income generated through water tariffs and their collection. The argument is frequently heard that customers of water service delivery cannot afford higher tariffs. However, tariffs in Pakistan are less than half of that which is considered affordable, in terms of percentage of average income.

Similarly, in the hydropower sub-sector, a combination of illegal domestic electric connections and other losses created the need for government inputs to support it. In the irrigation sub-sector, where introduction of farmer-managed irrigation could be of significant benefit to sustainability, it is not fully supported by all irrigation authorities who would be responsible for its implementation.

The current climate for involvement of the private sector in urban water supply and in hydropower, the two sub-sectors which are most likely to be of interest to the private sector, is unattractive because of the perceived risks of:

• Difficulty in agreeing tariffs and other conditions; • Perceptions that the government may change its policies after

signing contracts, as has been the case in the past.

2.6 Primary Issues in the Water Sector 2.6.1 The Policy Environment

The Pakistan Water Sector Strategy is one of several complimentary initiatives by the GOP. Of greatest importance have been:


• Ten Year Perspective Plan (Planning Commission, 2001) • Vision 2025 (Water and Power Development Authority, 2001) • National Water Policy (Ministry of Water and Power, (Draft)

2002)

In addition to the above, the Pakistan Framework for Action (Pakistan Water Partnership, 2002) is non-government but of importance as it outlines many of the issues not otherwise addressed.

The Strategy has adopted, as its primary objective, the Vision Statement of the National Water Policy:

THE NATIONAL WATER VISION

“By 2025, Pakistan should have adequate water available, through proper conservation and development. Water supplies should be of good quality, equitably distributed and meet the needs of all users through an efficient management, institutional and legal system that would ensure the sustainable utilization of the water resources and support economic and social development with due consideration to the environment, quality of life, economic value of resources, ability to pay and participation of all stakeholders.”

2.6.2 Changing Responsibilities in the Water Sector National

The waters of the Indus River basin are allocated to the provinces through the Water Accord which is implemented by the Indus River Systems Authority (IRSA). With five members, one for each province and a national member, it acts in the national interest. But there are frequent disputes over water allocation, especially in sharing water during dry periods. This has led to a culture of mistrust and inter-provincial rivalry which has contributed to the slow growth is water resources developments in the past decades.

While there are several federal agencies with responsibility for various areas or sub-sectors of water, there is no inter-ministerial, inter-provincial body to oversee integrated water sector planning,


development and management. Such a body is needed to oversee the implementation of the Water Sector Strategy to ensure that investments are targeted specifically at achieving its objectives. It is also needed to broker consensus on the major initiatives of the Strategy which are inter-ministerial and/or inter-provincial in nature, such as addressing water conservation, improvements in agricultural yield and production and the development of additional water storage. Changes in the water sector in Pakistan, from becoming a water scarce nation to changing demographics placing a different emphasis on water use, demand a new approach to water management.

Provincial

Much of the water sector planning, development and management has been mainly a provincial responsibility. Irrigation, domestic water supply and sanitation, environment have been managed through respective provincial departments. This is now changing with the programme of devolution in all sub-sectors.

The Devolution Plan of August 2001 decentralises most public sector activities from the federal and provincial levels to the district level, including public sector water supply and sanitation. The former provincial Public Health Engineering Departments have been reduced or even dissolved. There is some concern that the district authorities will lack the technical and managerial skills needed to support development of rural water supply and sanitation. It is hoped that these problems will be worked out as district administration comes to grips with their new responsibilities. The effectiveness of the districts in planning and development of rural water supply and sanitation should be monitored to ensure that it remains on track and assistance is provided where needed.

In urban water supply and sanitation larger cities manage their own systems. With rapid growth in the demand for water in the urban sub-sector, effective strategic planning will be of great importance. There is special concern for smaller cities and towns which may now be governed by more than one district and may fall through the administrative cracks with their water development neglected as a result. It is likely that it is in these smaller cities where much of the urban


growth will take place in the coming years. A support body to help coordinate the sub-sector would be a valuable addition.

In irrigation, legislation has been passed to convert the Irrigation Departments into financially self sustaining autonomous Provincial Irrigation & Drainage Authorities (PIDAs). Under the PIDAs, the operation and maintenance of individual canal systems is to be entrusted to autonomous self-accounting Area Water Boards (AWBs), which would entrust the O&M of the distributaries and minor canals to Farmers Organizations (FOs). This is currently an issue as the changes have not been entirely accepted by some of the existing Provincial Irrigation Departments, a situation which has led to the slow progress of the National Drainage Programme. In turn, this has resulted in international funding agencies such as the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank reconsidering their investments in the water sector in Pakistan. Future financial commitments by these agencies may rest on an agreeable resolution to this problem.

2.6.3 Population Growth and Demographic Changes Pakistan’s population is currently 141 million people, growing at a rate of 2.61% between 1986 and 1998. With an assumed reduction in growth rate over the next 25 years, averaging at 2.1%, the population is predicted to reach 221 million. The increasing population means increases in food and fibre requirements and increased demands for water across the sector and changes in the sub-sectoral allocation of water.

Rapid urbanisation is also taking place. The present urban population of 48 M (34% of the total), increasing at 3.7 % per annum, is projected to be 114.5 M (52% of the total) by 2025, with the urban population beginning to exceed the rural population by 2022. Urbanisation impacts on the water sector in two ways. There will be a resulting requirement for expanded and improved urban water supply and sanitation services, industrial pollution control and electricity. With the majority of the population living in cities political influence will move away from being rural and agriculturally oriented and begin to emphasise urban concerns.

The uneven population distribution of the four provinces of Pakistan: Balochistan (4.9%), North West Frontier Province 15.9%, Punjab


(55.1%) and Sindh (22.9%) is of particular significance in water sector development. Investment is distributed according to a formula which closely reflects the population distribution and the provinces of lower population consider this an improper way to distribute finances, arguing that without additional funding their development will continue to be held back.

2.6.4 Poverty Poverty is an overriding social problem in Pakistan and its reduction is given high priority. Although average per capita food availability of some 2,700 calories per day is adequate, malnutrition is widespread, with a reported eight 8 million malnourished children in 1999/2000. At 62.5 years, average life expectancy is similar to that in most other South Asian countries, but infant morbidity and mortality rates amongst the under-fives are well above the regional average.

Interventions by the water sector for direct poverty reduction are limited but are addressed specifically in the Water Sector Strategy through small-scale irrigation developments in poor areas where other opportunities for economic development are limited and improved health and living conditions through increased access to domestic water supply and sanitation.

2.6.5 Involvement of Women in the Water Sector Specific consideration of women’s role in water sector has not been a traditional feature of water sector development in Pakistan. However, under the Devolution Plan, one third of the places on the District Councils are reserved for women. With the same council responsible for domestic water supply, this should improve the involvement of women in decision-making in this sub-sector.

The proposed strategy for the rural water supply and sanitation programme targets women specifically for participation in decision-making in planning, development and management.

2.6.6 Equity in Water Allocation Equity in water allocation and access in irrigation is a major concern in Pakistan, as it is in many countries with large scale irrigation systems. It is a problem of those farmers at the tail end of irrigation systems not


receiving their allotted share of water because those at the head end tend to take more than their share. This is related to poverty issues because the tail end farmers are usually the poorer ones, partly because of inequitable water distribution.

This has a special relevance in Pakistan. Since the development of tube wells for irrigation, mainly in Southern Punjab and Sindh, the tail end farmers have come to rely on groundwater to enhance their poor water supply from the irrigation system. In most areas groundwater levels are either declining or the water quality is deteriorating, evidence that access to groundwater will decline in the future, either directly through aquifer depletion, or through increasing pumping costs which will again affect poorer farmers to a greater extent.

Equity is a difficult problem to solve as it is not a technical one. Rather it is driven by bribery and corruption within the irrigation systems. Nevertheless, with commitment from the responsible organisations a solution is possible.

2.6.7 Water Resources Availability Surface Water Resources

The hydrological units of the Kharan Desert and Makran Coastal Basin in Balochistan generate about 4 MAF and there is some potential for capturing flows to improve water availability locally. Otherwise, most of the surface water is generated in the Indus Basin.

The long-term sustainable average annual surface water net inflow of the Indus Basin is 142 MAF. Canal diversions over the same period have averaged 104 MAF, with an average of 38 MAF flowing downstream of Kotri Barrage to the sea. The actual requirements downstream of Kotri remain the subject of intense debate. However, this illustrates that Pakistan is now essentially at the limit of its surface water resources. The drought of the past three years has led to water shortages and illustrated just how close water use is to the limits of the resource.


Groundwater Resources

Estimates of groundwater availability in Pakistan have been made in several studies, and vary from 45.6 MAF (56.2 BCM) to 53.3 MAF (65.7 BCM), with an average of 51.1 MAF (63.0 BCM). Abstraction of groundwater for irrigation and for urban and rural drinking water supplies is estimated that about 41.6 MAF. While these figures may suggest some potential for further exploitation, they are based on very little actual monitoring of the resources or the abstraction and should be treated with caution. Other evidence, such as increasing salinity of groundwater in many areas and declining water levels in others, suggests that there is little, if any, further potential for groundwater exploitation. The Strategy has assumed only 1 MAF of additional groundwater will be successfully exploited.

2.6.8 Rationalisation of Water Allowances In the context of increasing water demands, the limited water resource and limited finances for water sector investments, the use of water and of money must be carefully considered. While there are water shortages there is also extensive overuse of water, as evidenced by the problem of waterlogging and salinity. There are extensive and costly plans to alleviate the drainage problem which is primarily caused by the overuse of water for irrigation. Water allowances, especially for irrigation, need to be assessed and rationalised within the larger context of the water sector.

2.6.9 Drainage and the Disposal of Drainage Effluent Related to water allowances question is the serious waterlogging and salinity problem affecting large areas of Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture. Providing an effective drainage solution is necessary to alleviate the loss of productive farm land to salinity. Disposal of the drainage effluent in an environmentally sound way is also necessary to reduce pollution of rivers and of land. The solutions proposed to date focus on large drainage schemes which act on the symptoms rather than the underlying problem of overuse of water for irrigation.

2.6.10 Water Quality Water quality, of both surface water and groundwater, has been identified as one of the major water resources issues in Pakistan. While


there are laws governing disposal of waste water into the rivers enforcement has been ineffective because of inadequate resources. Industries are in general acceptance of their need to treat waste water prior to disposal but a programme needs to be established to make a start. Municipal wastes need to be targeted at the same time, probably under the same programme.

Access to clean domestic water in the urban and rural subsectors is low in terms of service as well as water quality. Access to proper sanitation facilities is low and only about 1% of the total wastewater generated in the municipal sector is treated before being discharged into the rivers. Poor practice in the disposal of solid waste also pollutes the surface waters.

Agricultural drainage is also an issue, from the perspective of sustainability of irrigated land as well as environmentally sound disposal of saline drainage.

Water quality monitoring and information management is also lacking and needs to be addressed in order to develop a solid base for planning and decision making in pollution control and enhancing public awareness of water quality concerns.

2.6.11 Agricultural Yields and Production While there has been continuous improvement in agricultural yields, they remain significantly lower than their potential, contributing to inefficient water use by the agriculture sector. Crop yields must be increased significantly in order to meet the food and fibre requirements of the future.

Irrigation efficiency is low, at an estimated 40%, with good potential for conserving water through improved field application, lining of watercourses and adoption of better irrigation technologies. This will require a coordinated effort between agriculture agencies, irrigation agencies and the on-farm water management initiative.

Loan conditionalities of the main international lending agencies target increased farmer participation in irrigation management and cost recovery in irrigation service delivery. The issue of farmer ability to pay is


frequently raised and is one which warrants attention if such reforms are to be successfully implemented. Figure 2.2 shows the crop price trends since 1995 and forecasts to 2015 in farm gate prices for selected crops in Pakistan. There has been a significant decline in prices since 1995 and, though a rebound is forecast, it is small and a return to the 1995 price is not expected.

The drop in prices not market driven, but rather is due primarily to the high level of agricultural subsidies in Western countries. The low price certainly reduces farmers’ ability to pay, a situation which is not forecast to change in the near future. Hopes for achieving the agricultural and irrigation reforms will be hampered until some form of reconciliation of Western agricultural subsidies and imposed reforms in developing countries is achieved.


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2010 2015

Farm

Gat

e Va

lue

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e)

Wheat Seed Cotton Paddy, Basmati Paddy, Irri-6 Sugar

Figure 2.2: Farm Gate Prices for Selected Crops, Trends and Forecasts

(Source:Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2002, World Bank)


2.6.12 Economic Setting General

In 2000/01 Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) totalled Rs 3,411 billion (US$ 56.9 billion). Average per capita income was Rs 24,500 (US$ 408 or US$ 1.12 per day), with widespread and rising rates of poverty. Economic growth has slowed in recent years from 6.1% in the 1980s to 4.0% in the 1995-2000 period and 2.6% in 2000/01. The assumption for the Strategy is an annual GDP growth rate of 3% for 2002-03, 4% for 2004-05 and 5% thereafter, in line with the latest ADB forecast3.

Agriculture

Agriculture is the largest sector of the economy, with primary commodities accounting for 25% of GDP and 47% of total employment, and contributes more than 60% of foreign exchange earnings. Growth in the sector has been stagnating over the past few years, though it is likely to remain the primary contributor for some time.

Industry

The industrial sector has been growing faster than the agricultural sector. Manufacturing accounts for 17% of GDP, though textiles, which is a secondary product of agriculture, accounts for a considerable portion of the output of the industrial sector.

It is unlikely that labour requirements in the agriculture sector will grow at anywhere near the population growth rate and it will be the industrial sector which will provide most jobs in the future. Rapid growth of the industrial sector will be necessary to provide them and an appropriate balance will be needed to ensure both irrigation supplies and adequate water supplies for industries. Effective pollution control will also become increasingly important.

3 ADB (April 2002): Pakistan Economic Update


Hydropower

The water sector makes a substantial contribution to power generation. Hydropower accounts for 5,009 megawatts (MW) of the total installed generation capacity of 17,980 MW. This is an area with good potential for growth and, while not a consumptive user, water for hydropower development must be considered within the overall Strategy.

2.6.13 Availability of Finances A key parameter influencing the Water Sector’s future development will be the availability of government funds for public sector capital investment and recurrent expenditure. There has been a substantial public sector budget deficit for many years, ranging from 5.3% of GDP (2000/01) to 8.8% (1990/91), with some reduction in public expenditure over time (from around 26% in 1990/91 to 21.8% in 2000/01), but also a slight parallel decline in revenue generation. Considerable efforts are now being made to reduce the fiscal imbalance, and the fact that the 5.3% deficit in 2000/01 was the lowest in the past decade is encouraging. Nevertheless, public sector funding can be expected to continue to be a serious constraint on the Water Sector, as it is in many developing countries.

Donor assistance has provided disbursements in loans and grants of around US$ 2.4 billion per annum in the 1994/95 to 1998/99 periods. For investment planning purposes the assumption made is that total donor funding would average about US$ 1.6 billion per annum (at 2000/01 prices) over the period up to 2011. Of this total, about US$ 360 million (22%) is assumed to be available to the water sector if there are adequate and appropriate investment opportunities.

At present, there is little scope for significant private sector participation in the municipal water and hydro-power sub-sectors. It is an important government aim is to increase it, and improving the climate to attract investors should be a priority action.

The Asian Development Bank has been providing assistance to the Government of Pakistan since 1968, and to date it has provided a total of US$11.5 billion in aid to the country. In 2001, ADB provided a total of US$ 957 million to Pakistan. ADB's strong commitment to Pakistan will


continue with over US$ 800 million in average annual assistance for the period 2002 to 2005. In particular, ADB is providing major policy based assistance to support the Government's economic and governance reform agenda.

The upper level of annual investment for the Water Sector is estimated at Rs 40 billion (US$ 667 million) at present. Based on past trends and expected increases in the availability of external financing, the total investment during the period of the Medium Term Investment Plan (MTIP) is expected to be of the order of Rs 500 billion (US$ 8.3 billion), inclusive of the contribution by the Pakistan Government. On-going commitments for the water sector amount to Rs 209 billion (US$ 3.5 billion), leaving a budget space for new projects of Rs 291 billion (US$ 4.9 billion) during the MTIP period. Annual disbursements are expected to be similar, unless a specific initiative for a large project (such as large storage) is undertaken.

A more detailed discussion of the available funding is presented in Annex B of Volume 3, The Medium Term Investment Plan.

2.6.14 Coordination and Cooperation Within the Water Sector The is insufficient coordination between the various sub-sectors of the Water Sector. Improved coordination and cooperation will be needed to bring about the much needed reforms and changes.

Pakistan’s water resources need to be developed and managed in an integrated and holistic manner in keeping with the principles of integrated water resources management (IWRM). The increasing water demands have the potential to lead to conflict if not managed with due consideration of all water users, including the environment. A spirit of cooperation must be promoted.

Interprovincial insecurities regarding water sharing during periods of shortage has led to controversy and has led to the slow pace of development of the water sector for the last decade or more.

Lack of coordination is also apparent among the water related agencies of the various sub-sectors. Water resources development agencies and the irrigation sub-sector dominate water activities and water investment


in Pakistan. Irrigation is the largest user of water, but water use in other sub-sectors is equally important, is also increasing, and will need to be addressed in Strategy plans.

Cooperation, coordination and collaboration between the irrigation departments and the agriculture departments need to be improved. Given that the only purpose of irrigation is as an input to agricultural production, full coordination between these departments is essential to the development and sustainability of irrigated agriculture and to ensuring that investments in irrigation are directed specifically at improving agricultural production.

2.6.15 Project Implementation At a time when Pakistan is in dire need of water sector investment, there have been considerable delays in project implementation. Many projects, funded either through government reserves or international agencies, have been initiated but stopped before completion, wasting valuable investment resources and reducing confidence in implementation ability.

This is related to the issue of lack of consensus on loan conditionalities between the international lending agencies and the executing agencies in Pakistan, especially for such aspects as institutional reforms. Some projects are currently stalled as a result and future funding by the international agencies will likely depend on an agreeable solution to this.

A way forward must be found here, probably through frank discussions between the international funding agencies and the GOP as well as the provincial government agencies in their role as implementing agencies.

While agreed conditionalities must be honoured, there must also be acceptance on the part of the international lending agencies that reforms such as farmer participation in irrigation management have not yielded tangible results in other countries. Agriculture and irrigation reforms are not areas where quick results are possible and long-term commitments are required. Referring to Figure 2.2 above, such reforms are unlikely to be successful until some form of reconciliation of Western agricultural subsidies and imposed reforms in developing countries is achieved.


2.6.16 Financial Sustainability Financial sustainability in all sub-sectors is inadequate. In the urban water supply and sanitation sub-sector, this is mainly due to low levels of income generated through water tariffs and their collection. In the irrigation sub-sector introduction of farmer-managed irrigation could benefit to sustainability. However, in most provinces it does not have full support of the irrigation authorities that would be responsible for its implementation. Though there are questions of farmers ability to pay in the current climate of low farm gate prices, farmer participation in irrigation management can still be beneficial as they become more involved in the decision making process and can tailor irrigation service delivery to their own needs.

The current climate for involvement of the private sector in urban water supply and in hydropower, the two sub-sectors which are most likely to be of interest to the private sector, is unattractive because of the perceived risks of:

(a) difficulty in agreeing tariffs and other conditions; and (b) perceptions by potential investors that the government has

changed its policies after signing contracts in the past, and may do so again.

2.6.17 Information, Education and Public Awareness Information on water resources and, especially, water use, is limited and not very accessible. Information on water quality is similarly lacking. Public awareness and understanding of water issues are inadequate and need to be addressed in order to garner public support for the changes in water management that will be needed in the immediate and longer- term future.

2.7 Issue Summary Major issues, problems and constraints addressed in the Strategy are summarised below, presented under three headings: ‘Institutional and Management Issues’, ‘Social and Financial Issues’ and ‘Technical Issues’. A more detailed discussion is available in Volume 4, Detailed Strategy Formulation.


2.7.1 Institutional and Management Issues Specific institutional and management issues include the following:

(i) Inadequate coordination between the organisations of the various sub-sectors of the Water Sector;

(ii) Difficulties in reaching consensus between the provinces and with the federal agencies retarding growth of the water sector, especially in water resources development;

(iii) Absence of an inter-ministerial, inter-provincial body to oversee water sector planning, development and management;

(iv) Changing administration under the Devolution Plan, and uncertainty in technical ability during the transition, especially in the domestic water supply and sanitation sub-sectors;

(v) Need for improvement of public sector management of water sector infrastructure and activities;

(vi) Inadequate water information;

2.7.2 Social and Financial Issues The main social and financial issues affecting water sector development are:

(i) Rapid population growth and changing demographics; (ii) High level of poverty, with some potential to be improved

through water sector investment; (iii) Low level of involvement of women in water sector

decision making, with potential for improvement, especially in domestic water supply and sanitation;

(iv) Inequity in water distribution in the irrigation systems; (v) Limited availability of funds for the water sector and high

financial requirements to meet the needs of the future; (vi) Lack of financial sustainability in water sector services

due to low levels of public sector funds and insufficient cost recovery;

(vii) Poor crop prices reducing farmers’ ability to contribute to irrigation and drainage management;

(viii) Limited private sector investment or participation;


(ix) Limited stakeholder participation in decision making in all sub-sectors;

(x) Inadequate public awareness and understanding of water issues;

2.7.3 Technical Issues The main technical issues are:

(i) Increasing demand for water, food and power; (ii) Insufficient water resources for the demands of the future; (iii) Inefficient use of water in all sub-sectors with greatest

potential for improvement in the irrigation sub-sector; (iv) Low crop yields; (v) Deteriorating water quality; (vi) Inadequate domestic water supply and sanitation

coverage and quality of service; (vii) Deteriorating infrastructure in the domestic and irrigation

and drainage sub-sectors; (viii) Overuse of water in many irrigated areas, the main cause

of (ix) below; (ix) Waterlogging and salinity on irrigated land and disposal of

saline drainage effluent.


3 STRATEGY PLANNING AND FORMULATION

3.1 General Approach The aim of a sectoral Strategy such as that presented in Section 4 is to ‘operationalise’ the government’s policy for that sector and provide a strategy framework for more detailed investment planning and other activities. As such, a strategy is qualitative rather than quantitative in nature and provides the direction, approach and detailed policies to be followed, rather than a time-bound programme or investment plan.

Where an official National Water Policy (NWPo) is in place it forms the basis for water sector strategy formulation. A draft NWPo has now been prepared and has been through a second round of stakeholder discussions. It is expected to be finalised by late 2002 and to be ratified and promulgated by Government by mid 2003. The objectives and philosophies contained in the NWPo, in conjunction with investment considerations the Ten Year Perspective Plan (finalised in August 2002 and covering the period 2000/01 to 2010/11) have provided the framework for strategy formulation. The starting point for the strategy formulation process has been the detailed description of the present water sector situation, as described in the National Water Sector Profile prepared under the current study, and the summary of the main issues to be addressed, which concludes Section 2.6 of this report.

The Strategy covers the period up to 2025. Within the Strategy framework a Medium-Term Investment Programme (MTIP) has been put forward for the first ten years of this period (2002 to 2011) and is presented in Volume 3. Although account has been taken of relevant activities in other sectors, the Strategy is deliberately confined to the water sector itself. For example, effective agricultural research and extension services are necessary to sustain the future growth in irrigated crop yields, but their improvement is a matter for the agricultural sector, not the water sector. Similarly, the protection and management of the Indus Delta’s mangrove areas are the responsibility of the environ-mental sector, the role of the water sector being to ensure adequate Indus flows to the delta area.


There are few existing strategies or master plans for other sectors, which are of direct concern for water planning and therefore need to be taken into account in the Strategy. The most important are the ADB Urban Development Strategy and the National Environmental Action Plan being implemented with UNDP assistance.

The Strategy presented in Section 4 consists of a set of eight sub-sectoral strategies (water resource development, urban water supply and sanitation, rural water supply and sanitation, industrial water supply and pollution control, irrigation and drainage, hydropower, environment, and flood protection) and the supporting measures and activities, which are required to enable the Strategy to be implemented effectively. The first set is essentially ‘management’ or ‘institutional’ measures and interventions and the second set are ‘technical’ measures and interventions. The sub-sectoral strategies give equal emphasis to management and technical aspects.

3.2 Objectives of the Strategy The aim of the Strategy is to enable the water sector to contribute successfully to the achievement of the national development goals and objectives set out in the NWPo and the Ten Year Perspective Plan (TYPP). Essentially, these are to accelerate GDP growth, reduce unemployment, alleviate poverty and maintain food security, thereby improving the quality of life of the people of Pakistan. In support of these economic and social goals, the human capital base for long-term, self-reliant, growth would be enhanced and the institutional base required for sustainable development would be strengthened.

The major water sector issues to be addressed are discussed in Section 2.6 and summarised briefly in Section 2.7. Based on the TYPP and the draft NWPo, within the context of the above national goals, the objectives of the Water Sector Strategy have been proposed as those listed below. They have been divided into two sets of objectives, Management/Institutional Objectives, which must be met in order to fulfil the technical objectives successfully, and the Technical Objectives (e.g. providing a required volume of water or level of water supply and sanitation coverage). A key aim overriding all the ‘technical’ developments envisaged in the Strategy is the need to ensure the long-term sustainability of the water sector’s publicly owned and operated


infrastructure and services. This has been seriously lacking in the past. It is a problem that affects the country’s public sector as a whole.

3.2.1 Management/Institutional Objectives The management and institutional objectives are:

(a) To improve the management, operation and maintenance of all public sector water infrastructure and facilities, in order to achieve a better quality of service and avoid the problem of deferred maintenance.

(b) As an essential contribution to the achievement of the above aim, to improve cost recovery for irrigation and drainage and water supply and sanitation and thereby reduce net public expenditure and ensure financial sustainability. Where appropriate, cost recovery charges should be structured so as to promote demand management.

(c) To promote stakeholder participation, as an essential means of improving performance, ensuring sustainability and reducing the burden on public finances.

(d) To promote private sector participation and investment, with the same objectives as above, by improving the climate for private investment and providing the necessary legal, fiscal and regulatory framework.

(e) To strengthen public sector institutional capacity in the water sector so that the ability of water agencies to manage their operations and carry out their functions efficiently can be enhanced and the sector’s overall planning and management can be improved.

(f) To provide the necessary enabling environment for successful water sector development and management, with the necessary legal base, the raising of public awareness and other measures.

(g) To promote women’s participation in water related activities. (h) To protect the water related environment.


3.2.2 Technical Objectives The technical objectives are:

(i) To ensure an adequate supply of water for the future demands of irrigated agriculture, domestic, commercial and industrial water supply, hydropower, and environmental and other uses. Increased reservoir storage will be developed to the extent that demand growth necessitates.

(j) Linked with the above, to manage the nation’s water resources in an efficient, equitable and sustainable manner, in keeping with the principles of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM). Improved efficiency of water use, especially in agriculture, is a key element in this process. As in other countries, priority in water allocation should be given to meeting domestic water supply requirements, in the event of competition for scarce supplies.

(k) To expand the provision of water supply and sanitation services and improve the quality of service, in order to eliminate the backlog of unsatisfied consumer demand and required maintenance that has built up in the past due to under investment.

(l) To improve water quality, which is deteriorating as a result of increasing municipal and industrial wastewater discharges and agricultural drainage effluent.

(m) To reduce the incidence of water logging and salinity and provide a long-term solution to the safe disposal of saline drainage effluent.

(n) To rehabilitate the country’s existing irrigation and drainage infrastructure, which has deteriorated due to inadequate maintenance.

(o) To develop hydropower, where this is economically competitive with thermal generation.

3.3 Factors and Uncertainties in Future Water Sector Development To produce a realistic and practicable Strategy, account must be taken of a number of important factors and uncertainties, which will influence the water sector’s future development. Most of these are outside the sector’s control. They include:


The political environment, especially in terms of ‘governance’ problems and the political will needed to implement reforms and improve institutional efficiency. This impacts on the water sector in many ways. Examples include the difficulties in resolving the inter-provincial water allocation disputes, the difficulty in raise irrigation and drainage and urban water supply and sanitation tariffs to realistic cost recovery levels, the deleterious effects on institutional efficiency, and the impediments to private sector water investment resulting from the unfavourable investment climate.

The public sector management capacity constraints, which affect most sectors. Inadequate salaries and conditions of service, governance problems, a lack of strategic planning and the ad hoc investment pattern, which results, the low levels of funding for recurrent costs and other factors reduce motivation and efficiency. The water sector is no less affected by these problems than other sectors. As a result, planning and implementation capacity remains a serious constraint.

Availability of government funds for water sector capital investment and recurrent costs. In common with many developing countries, the shortfall is greater with recurrent (O&M and improvement) funding rather than capital funding, because donors are generally unwilling to finance recurrent expenditure. A major consequence is unsatisfactory O&M leading to infrastructure deterioration and improvements carried out only under major capital projects.

There are considerable uncertainties regarding future capital funding of public sector water-related activities. In recognition of these uncertainties, the projects in the MTIP have been ranked to indicate which projects should be prioritised when funds are inadequate to implement it in full.

The impacts, which the government’s Devolution Plan will have on the sector are uncertain at present. So far the main effect has been on the water supply and sanitation sub-sector, with the decentralization of PHED (Public Health Engineering Department) responsibilities to the District and local level. Devolution may eventually affect the irrigation and drainage sub-sector as well.


A major uncertainty affecting future irrigation water requirements is the future trend in irrigated crop yields. As explained in Section 5, if the yields of the major crops continue to improve as they have done over the past 20 years, which is a reasonable assumption, the need to increase crop acreages and, therefore, irrigation water supplies will be less intense, though it will still be substantial. The need for new reservoir storage would be correspondingly affected. It is possible, however unlikely, that crop yield growth may stagnate in the future, at which point the impact on food security cannot be forecast. Ensuring the crop yield continues to grow must be the prime directive of both the agriculture sector and the irrigation sub-sector.

If successful, the recently introduced irrigation and drainage institutional reforms will increase stakeholder participation and reduce the financial and management burden on government. At the time of writing, however, the implementation and, indeed, acceptance of the institutional arrangements is uncertain as there is only limited support for them within the irrigation community. In this situation the Strategy cannot forecast with any certainty the extent of irrigation and drainage management transfer which will be achieved, and thus the degree of future government involvement in O&M.

Water rather than land is undoubtedly the limiting physical resource as regards irrigation. However, the scarcest resources constraining water sector development in Pakistan are public finances for capital investment and the support of recurrent costs, and public sector implementation capacity. Hence the need to maximize returns per unit of water and per unit of money cannot be overemphasised.

3.4 The Development of the Strategy and MTIP The Strategy and the MTIP were developed on a highly collaborative basis. The consultant worked very closely with the Office of the Chief Engineering Advisor / Chairman Federal Flood Commission throughout the study and maintained continual discussion on the emerging issues and ideas incorporated in the Strategy.

In addition, one federal and four provincial Working Groups (WGs) were set up at the outset of the study and the first meetings of the WGs were held during the Inception period. As is usual in such studies, the interest


and activity of the WGs accelerated through the study period as they and the Consultants learned more about each other and came to understand each others’ views.

Four national workshops were held at strategic points in the study: following the Inception Report in August 2001, following the submission of the Water Sector Profile in February 2002, following the submission of the Preliminary Draft Strategy and MTIP in May 2002 and a Final National Workshop held in September 2002 following the Draft Final Report.

The participants in the workshops included the WGs and also included those from other government departments, research institutes, farmer groups, international funding agencies and the press. Participation by non-government organisations was lower than had been hoped but attempts were made to increase non-government participation through a wide dissemination of reports. A special NGO forum was also held following the National Workshop in February. This had relatively limited attendance but was a valuable event nonetheless. That there was only limited non-government participation, however, is illustrative of the inadequate public awareness on water issues in Pakistan – an aspect which this Strategy aims to improve.

In addition to Workshops, several meetings were held between the consultants and the WGs, both in their respective provinces and meeting altogether in Islamabad. These were very fruitful meetings as they allowed broad, informal discussions on the issues and the needs and development ambitions of the provinces and the federal regions which led directly to the formulation of the MTIP and contributed to the development of the Strategy.

From the perspective of developing a holistic water sector strategy, there were weaknesses in this collaborative approach. Mostly, the WGs were not fully representative of the water sector because they were highly dominated by irrigation interests. This was not true in all cases. In particular, the Balochistan WG had a very good cross section of the sector. One of the leading members was the MD WASA for Quetta and representatives of forestry, agriculture and others were involved.


This is not to criticise the working groups. As such they were typical of the water sector in Pakistan in its domination by irrigation and water resources interests. The majority of the water related institutions in Pakistan and, by extension, the human resource base on which they rest, are dedicated either to irrigation or to water resources development (including hydropower). The ongoing projects in the MTIP illustrate this very well – fully 98% of the ongoing projects (those which have been started or to which funds have been committed prior to the new projects proposed in this study) are either from the irrigation and drainage sub-sector or to water resource development. The flood protection sub-sector receives 2% and the water supply and sanitation sub-sector gets less than 0.2%. Proposed new projects for the MTIP, however, show a stronger emphasis on domestic water, flood protection and improvements in irrigated agriculture rather than extension of area. This represents a compromise between the Consultants and the WGs, which is a significant achievement of this collaborative approach.

The irrigation and water resources dominance has had an effect on the Strategy and, especially on the MTIP. It is proposed in the Strategy that domestic water supply needs to be given priority during the strategy period. This is not a proposal that has been agreed by the WGs, but rather is the recommendation of the Consultant (though there is some support, mainly from professionals from the domestic water sub-sector). Similarly, environmental concerns, particularly water pollution control, while being cited as a main concern by many, has received less attention than it may have with collaboration across a wider spectrum.

It is also the case that governance, institutional improvements, capacity building and improved management are not aspects that most professionals in the water sector consider to be either important or a particular problem. There remains a strong emphasis on infrastructure development without the enabling environment to ensure its sustainability. The Strategy places great emphasis on these concerns across the sector but, again as a recommendation of the Consultant and not a recommendation reached collaboratively, it may not receive full support.

The MTIP reflects a compromise between specific projects that the provinces wish to construct (and which the Consultant would not


necessarily have recommended) and interventions which the consultant has concluded to be necessary for the development of the water sector (but which the WGs would not have proposed). There are some specific projects for urban water supply and sanitation but most of the MTIP inclusions proposed by the consultant are block allocations of finance (specific projects have not yet been developed but money was included in the MTIP so that these sub-sectors are not overlooked) for urban and rural water supply, the environment and special studies and projects aimed at developing an enabling environment and improving financial sustainability. The MTIP is the result of a compromise between the Consultant and the WGs, as such, illustrates the value of the collaborative approach.


4 THE PROPOSED STRATEGY

4.1 Introduction The proposed Water Sector Strategy has been formulated on the basis of the planning approach described in Section 3.1 and the objectives listed in Section 3.2, taking due account of the major factors and uncertainties discussed in Section 3.3. The Strategy is presented here as a summary of the key elements, which may be sub-sector related in some cases, but are usually applicable across the water sector. The Sections following (Section 6 to Section 13) are specific to the agriculture sector and the seven sub-sectors of water. They provide detailed discussions of the current situation, the objectives, the main constraints and the proposed strategy for each sub-sector. These are not repeated in this section.

The Key Elements of the Strategy are presented first. These are essentially a summary of issues and interventions determined to be necessary through the course of developing the sub-sectoral strategies.

A summary of the overall cost of the Strategy and a proposed prioritisation are provided at the end of this section.

4.2 Key Objectives of the Strategy This section presents the key objectives of the Strategy which have reference across the water sector. In the discussion on each of the sub-sector, more objectives are given which are specific to those sub-sectors and are not repeated here.

The Water Sector Strategy goes beyond the infrastructural development of the various water sub-sectors. Following the principles and themes of the Pakistan National Water Policy, the Strategy has emphasised the elements which are essential to the sustainable achievement of the objectives of the water sector and which are raised in the discussions on the sub-sectors. This section summarises those elements.

The Water Sector Strategy and the accompanying Medium Term Investment Plan (see Volume 3, Medium Term Investment Plan) are not


limited to the irrigation and drainage sub-sector, as has been the traditional emphasis in water sector work in Pakistan. Rather, all the competing sub-sectors of water are addressed, along with the cross-cutting issues and objectives, as they should be to ensure provision of water for all in the future.

4.2.1 Provision of Water for All Ensuring the provision of water for all is the key objective of the Strategy and essentially all other objectives support this. The primary objective of each of the sub-sectoral strategies is also directed at providing water for all within their own spheres. At the Water Resources Development level, key elements include:

Water Conservation

A good proportion of the water which will supply the additional needs of the future must come from conservation. While there is scope for conservation in the domestic water supply sub-sectors, most will be derived from the irrigation sub-sector, simply because of its sheer volume of water use. Conservation in irrigation will be the responsibility of both the agriculture sector and the irrigation sub-sector by improving irrigation efficiencies. Efficiency improvements will come from a combined programme of farmer training for improved field application and lining of watercourses, with a priority on areas of saline groundwater. It is estimated that there is potential for saving 4.7 MAF annually through increasing irrigation efficiency from the current estimate of 40% to 45% by 2025.

Another water conservation measure will be to reconsider and rationalise water allowances. Current water allowances have contributed to the waterlogging and salinity problem which damages the land as well as creating a major expense in artificial drainage and disposal of drainage effluent. Achieving equity in irrigation distribution will also contribute to conservation through reducing waste of water and reducing the growing need for pumping from groundwater.


Additional Storage

In addition to water saved through conservation Pakistan needs additional storage to meet the agricultural and other water needs of the future. Most of this storage will be developed within the Indus Basin and, because of the size of the Indus, it means large storage dams. In recent years, the development of large dams has been looked upon unfavourably because of the significant environmental, social and cost implications. Large storage, however, is the only realistic option for the development of water resources in Pakistan.

The limited availability of funding is a constraint to developing large storage and serious consideration will need to be given to making finances available. However, the primary constraint to developing additional storage at present is the difficulty in reaching a consensus between the provinces on developing storage on the Indus and the resulting difficulty in making a decision on the best storage sites.

A first task of the proposed Water Resources Apex Body (see Section 14.1) will be to prepare an Integrated Water Resources Master Plan which will determine the needs and development priorities for conservation, storage, watershed management and water resources development as a whole. At this time, the estimate for additional storage is 20 to 25 MAF. The storage site at Kalabagh is considered to be the best location, but the controversy surrounding this site may pose a problem to its development.

Providing Water Allocations

The above interventions will be achieved with full recognition of the Water Accord under which the provinces are allocated water. Balochistan and NWFP, however, are unable to access their provisions under the Accord because the infrastructure to deliver it has not been developed. This development should be considered within the context of overall water resources, especially in relation to additional storage.

4.2.2 Improvement of Institutional and Management Capacity There is need to strengthen the many institutions working in the water sector to ensure effective planning, development and management of all


the water sub-sectors. Management deficiencies, in the broadest sense, have been the most important constraint hindering progress in the Water Sector in recent years. With Pakistan entering a new regime of being a water scarce country a new approach to management is needed, which will prioritise a rational approach to water allocation within and between the sub-sectors, performance in service delivery and, especially, financial and physical sustainability.

Institutional strengthening will be required for the new approach to management and several significant additions to and changes in institutions are part of the Strategy.

A Water Resources Apex Body is proposed for planning, development and management of water resources (see Section 14.1). This would be the body which would have primary responsibility to implement the Water Sector Strategy.

A National Water Council (NWC) is proposed which would be the major policy and decision making body. The NWC will be inter-ministerial and inter-provincial in its focus and mandate, chaired by the Prime Minister, with members likely consisting of the Ministers of: Water and Power, Food and Agriculture and Environment, plus: Secretary, Water and Power, Secretary Finance, Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, the Chief Ministers of the four provinces, with FATA, Northern Areas and AJK. The Chief Engineering Advisor, MWP would be the Member Secretary.

The Apex Body will support the NWC as a technical secretariat. It will be established within the Ministry of Water and Power (MWP). This would be an expansion of responsibilities of the Ministry of Water and Power and will require a change in the charter of the MWP so that it would cover all water sub-sectors. Extensive capacity will be required for its extension of current activities.

The Terms of Reference for the Apex Body will be detailed during the capacity building phase. However, at this time the broad ToR is envisaged to include:

(a) Implementation of the Water Sector Strategy;


(b) Coordination of all water user organisations; (c) Establishment of policy for allocation of water between water use

sub-sectors; (d) Regulation of groundwater abstraction; (e) Developing and maintaining a Management Information System

(MIS) for the Water Sector; Developing and executing a strong Public Awareness campaign to improve public understanding of water issues.

The first task of the Apex Body would be to prepare an Integrated Water Resources Master Plan to determine the needs and development priorities for conservation, storage, watershed management and water resources development as a whole. Primary components of the Master Plan are, the need for storage, the potential and strategy for conservation of water, including reconsideration of water allowances, and the environmental needs of rivers including the Ravi and Sutlej and the Indus downstream of Kotri.

A Coordinating and Support body has also been recommended for the Domestic Water and Sanitation sub-sector. This is a forum of existing agencies in urban water which would provide support for strategic planning to all urban areas, large and small. The lack of long term planning is one of the main constraints to successful growth. Its first task will be to undertake a Strategic Medium and Long Term Plan to lay the foundations for achieving the objectives of the sub-sector. Restructuring of sub-sector financing and regulation to create an enabling environment for service providers to become financially self-sustaining is a key element of the Plan. If a climate is developed which can attract the private sector the proposed Domestic Water Supply Coordinating and Support Body could restructure to become a regulating body and be ready to take on this function as the private sector becomes more involved.

4.2.3 Poverty Reduction Poverty reduction is targeted mainly through the irrigation and drainage and urban and rural water supply and sanitation sub-sectors. Poverty reduction is a primary objective for the Water Sector Strategy as a whole and for these sub-sectoral strategies.


4.2.4 Improving the Involvement of Women in Water The involvement of women is to be improved within the rural water supply and sanitation sub-sector strategy. The proposed programme for development of the sub-sector targets women specifically through increasing their role in decision making. This should be supported by the establishment of seats for women in the District and Tehsil Councils under the Devolution Plan.

4.2.5 Increasing Equity in Water Distribution Equity is a prime consideration of the Strategy, particularly in the irrigation and drainage sub-sector. Equity has an impact on poverty reduction and on conservation of water as it is closely related to overuse of water for irrigation.

4.2.6 Increasing Stakeholder Participation The development of the water resources of Pakistan and the water using sub-sectors is undertaken specifically and only for the people of Pakistan and the support of their health and economic and social development.

It is necessary to enhance the participation of all water stakeholders: those with an active involvement in water use, such as farmers and rural communities who manage their own water systems, as well as those who rely on water services for their health and livelihoods.

Irrigation and Drainage

There have been and will continue to be difficulties in developing functional farmer management of irrigation and drainage systems. International experience with irrigation management turnover and participatory irrigation management has been mixed. In developing countries, in particular, the actual progress achieved has often been much below expectations.

However, the process should continue to be promoted with full farmer participation in the development of what will be their responsibilities. Their level of involvement in management will evolve, though government is likely to continue to be the major partner in irrigation management.


Domestic Water Supply and Sanitation

The principles and practice of user participation in rural water supply and sanitation are now becoming well established. Its role in urban water supply and sanitation is likely to remain limited, however, because urban systems lend themselves better than rural systems to operation on commercial lines. This situation is reflected in the strategy proposals made for these sub-sectors.

To effectively participate at all levels; the public must be aware of and have an understanding of the issues in the water sector and their rights and responsibilities within it. It is the responsibility of the GOP and the provincial governments to ensure that public awareness is raised.

4.2.7 Improving Public Awareness and Understanding and Information Public Awareness and Understanding

Improved public awareness and understanding is a central objective of the proposed Strategy to provide the foundation for increased stakeholder participation. Awareness raising campaigns have been included in the sub-sectoral strategies of water resources development, urban and rural water supply and sanitation, industrial water supply and pollution control and environment.

A major Public Awareness campaign to increase awareness and understanding is one of the main tasks of the proposed Apex Body.

Information

Good quality and trusted information is the key to good quality and trusted decision making. A Management Information System (MIS) for water at the national level, linked with similar provincial systems is a component of the Strategy. Its development will be led by the proposed Water Sector Apex Body.

A water quality MIS has also been recommended under the environment heading.


4.2.8 Improving Agricultural Yields and Production The food needs of the future will be met through combined efforts in water conservation, additional storage and, most importantly, through increases in crop yields. Improvements in government agricultural services are needed to ensure the continued growth of irrigated crop yields and output and a corresponding reduction in the need to increase the irrigated crop area and minimise additional storage. Agricultural research and extension and seed supply are the key actors in this initiative. Increased research funding, institutional reform, especially for the seed sub-sector, and general efficiency improvements will be necessary.

4.2.9 Increasing Cooperation Between Irrigation and Agriculture Agriculture will continue to be the largest user of water in Pakistan and one of the key elements of the Strategy is to conserve water used for agriculture through increasing irrigation efficiencies. This will require a concerted effort on the parts of both irrigation and agriculture departments as well as the On-Farm Water Management Programme, and their cooperation and collaboration will be crucial to its success. Improving cooperation, coordination and collaboration between irrigation and agriculture is a key recommendation in the Strategy for both the agriculture sector and the irrigation sub-sector.

4.2.10 Enacting the National Water Policy The Pakistan National Water Policy is currently in draft form. This is a very important document because it outlines the philosophy, guiding principles and goals for development of the water sector. Once it has been finalized and approved, a National Water Resources Act should be enacted to encompass all the Policy provisions and provide a single set of rules and regulations for the nation’s future water management. Water policies and acts are being established in many countries as a legal base for water sector development strategies and is normally regarded as essential for effective water management.

4.2.11 Improving Cooperation and Coordination in the Water Sector Pakistan’s water resources need to be developed and managed in an integrated and holistic manner in keeping with the principles of integrated water resources management (IWRM). The increasing water demands have the potential to lead to conflict if not managed with due


consideration of all water users, including the environment. A spirit of cooperation must be promoted.

There is a need to strengthen the political will required to bring about the much needed reforms and changes many of which may not be initially popular and which may meet with obstruction, both from outside and within the water sector.

The proposed National Water Council should lead the improvement of cooperation. The Apex Body will act to improve the quality and dissemination of information to reduce the level and impact of misinformation that is so prevalent in the water sector today.

4.2.12 Finances Achieving the objectives of the Strategy will be expensive. It will require major investment initiatives on the part of the government. Financing will need to be derived from government reserves, foreign borrowing and investment by the private sector.

Targeting Investments to the Objectives of the Strategy

Investments must be targeted directly at achieving the objectives of the Strategy. All projects must be assessed for their specific contribution to the Strategy objectives at the feasibility stage.

Financial Sustainability

Of crucial importance is ensuring the long-term financial sustainability of all water sector infrastructure and services. To achieve this, there will need to be a great improvement in public sector cost recovery, especially for the recurrent costs of O&M, improvement and modernisation and extension of services, as well as capital costs in some sub-sectors. The sub-sectoral strategies all target financial sustainability.

While it is unlikely that full financial self-sufficiency will be achieved, financial sustainability can be. Full financial sustainability implies full cost


recovery, which is not feasible in a country with high rates of poverty. To be financially sustainable, there may still be an amount of government support or subsidy, but there must still be a concerted effort to charge and collect reasonable rates for water service delivery and financial support from the government must be a clear part of the service’s financial plan.

A financial sustainability assessment should be added to the PC-1 approval process for all projects. This would be in a similar manner to the environmental impact assessment, which is already included in the PC-1. It should outline how the project will be sustained; including water tariffs and other cost recovery mechanisms, how these will be collected and how they will be applied to the associated costs.

Involving the Private Sector

The Private Sector is a potential source for both investment and management skills, especially for the urban domestic sub-sector and the hydropower sub-sector. Studies for private sector participation specifically for the urban and hydro sub-sectors have been proposed which will determine how to attract the private sector and define the roles it will play and the regulatory environment needed to manage and monitor it.

4.2.13 Improving Water Quality Water quality, of both surface water and groundwater, has been identified as one of the major water resources issues in Pakistan. Water pollution is caused by untreated wastewater disposal from both industry and municipal systems and also from agricultural drainage. The primary problem is the lack of legal authority of the EPA to enforce existing regulations and a proposal has been included for a private – public partnership approach to improving effluent disposal.

Improvement of water quality is a key objective of the Strategy and specific proposals are included within the Urban and Rural Water Supply and Sanitation, Industrial and Environmental sub-sectoral strategies.

These need the support of a comprehensive water quality-monitoring programme, for both surface and groundwater, combined with an MIS


for information management and dissemination. The main implementing agency may be the Environmental Protection Agency, but much of the work will be undertaken through the urban and rural water supply and sanitation sub-sectors, the industrial water supply sub-sector and the agriculture sector.

4.3 Summary and Main Framework of the Strategy A Framework for the Water Sector Strategy which outlines the key issues, objectives and responsibilities of each of the sub-sectors, as well as a cost summary is provided in the following table.

SUMMARY AND FRAMEWORK OF THE PAKISTAN WATER SECTOR STRATEGY

Sub Sector Water Resources Urban Water Supply and Sanitation

Rural Water Supply and Sanitation

Industrial Water Supply and Pollution Control

Irrigation and Drainage Hydropower Environment Flood Protection

Overall To achieve the National Water Vision: By 2025, Pakistan should have adequate water available, through proper conservation and development. Water supplies should be of good quality, equitably distributed and meet the needs of all users through an efficient management, institutional and legal system that would ensure the sustainable utilization of the water resources and support economic and social development with due consideration to the environment, quality of life, economic value of resources, ability to pay and participation of all stakeholders.

O

BJE

CT

IVE

S

Sectoral 1. Provide sufficient water for all sub sectors based on Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)

2. Promote water conservation.

3. Ensure effective planning and decision making

4. Regulate groundwater abstraction where feasible

5. Improve water quality 6. Develop information

base 7. Develop public

awareness and understanding of the issues

1. Provide water supply to 96% of urban population

2. Provide functional sewerage to 80% of the urban population

3. Achieve financial sustainability in all urban water developments

4. Achieve full compliance with EPA standards for drinking water and wastewater disposal

5. Develop water quality information management system

1. Increase rural water supply coverage to 75% of the population

2. Increase coverage of rural sanitation to 50%

3. Improve drinking water quality to comply with EPA standards

4. Ensure services are financial self sustaining

5. Develop a comprehensive water quality monitoring and information system

6. Raise public awareness re: hygiene and sanitation

1. Ensure provision of sufficient water to industry to promote industrial and economic development

2. Ensure environmentally sound disposal of industrial waste water through regulation, in order to reduce pollution and improve water quality

1. Increase irrigation efficiency from 40% to 45% to conserve 4.7 MAF

2. Achieve equity in water distribution at all levels 3. Harness unused flood water and runoff from hill torrents 4. Increase irrigated agriculture over 2 million acres of

culturable waste for agricultural production and poverty alleviation

5. Achieve sustainability including financial sustainability 6. Promote stakeholder participation, through PIDAs, AWBs

and FOs 7. Reduce waterlogging in 7 million acres 8. Provide a long term safe solution for saline drainage effluent

1. Develop the hydropower sub-sector in parallel with the overall power sector

2. Attract private investment

3. Develop the hydropower potential of any new multipurpose storage projects

4. Develop run-of-river hydro projects through private sector finance.

1. Improve the quality of surface and ground water to acceptable standards by 2025.

2. Rehabilitate coastal and other wetland areas through better management of freshwater flows to them.

3. Reduce soil erosion in the catchments of major storage reservoirs.

1. Place priority for flood protection on areas of major human habitation and economic importance

2. Prepare flood and drought management strategies, especially for major cities, towns and infrastructure

3. Promote the delineation of flood risk planning zones to be adopted by all agencies as part of the planning process

Overall • Ministry Water and Power to obtain formal adoption, initially from the Economic Coordinating Committee and, subsequently, the Cabinet for the Water Sector Strategy. • Establish an inter-ministerial, inter-provincial National Water Council with a supporting Apex Body established within the Ministry of Water and Power to oversee the planning, development and management of the water sector, beginning with the

implementation of the Strategy. Determine capacity building needs and begin capacity building process. • Extend the charter of Ministry Water and Power to include all sub-sectors of the water sector • Undertake an Integrated Water Resources Master Plan, with emphasis on conservation, storage and environmental needs

Sectoral

Short Term 2003 & 2004

• Promote and support water sector conservation

• Commit to develop storage

• Prepare water resources master plan

• Undertake feasibility study on public awareness

• Study and develop a water sector Management Information System (MIS)

• Develop water quality monitoring programme

• Develop coordinating and support body for the urban water sector

• Develop long term plans for water and sanitation services

• Restructure sub-sector financing, tariff mechanisms and regulation

• Address maintenance backlog

• Develop water resources to maintain continuity of supply to existing customers

• Improve revenue recovery

• Undertake project preparation

• Establish Project Management Units (PMUs) in each Province

• Train PMU staff and Community Based Organisation (CBO) personnel

• Develop and execute public awareness campaigns.

• Assess the need for financial incentives to industries to comply with EPA effluent disposal regulations

• Determine legislative needs for regulation of industries and enforcement of standards and water abstraction licensing.

• Undertake a feasibility study to develop a water quality monitoring programme

• Develop an awareness campaign to promote the reduction of pollution

• Prepare a national industrial pollution control plan

• Commit to financial sustainability of the irrigation & drainage infrastructure and prepare a plan for this

• Initiate actions to increase irrigation efficiency to 45% - to include addressing improved water management, farmer participation and cost recovery

• Assess benefits of lining distributaries in saline areas and develop plan

• Prepare plan to modernise barrages and the feasibility studies for priority works

• Restructure NDP • Complete pre-feasibility study for spinal drain • Prepare plan to harness hill torrent flows • Prepare plan for expansion of agricultural area • Prepare/upgrade feasibility studies for small schemes • Complete regulations for groundwater abstraction

• Plan a comprehensive national water quality management programme

• Develop a major campaign to raise public awareness of the environment

• Support the studies to determine the volume of flows required downstream of Kotri

• Assess the need for incentives to industries to comply with EPA effluent disposal regulations

• Determine the needs for legislation for regulation of industrial development, enforcement of standards and water abstraction licensing

ST

RA

TE

GY

Medium Term 2005 – 2011

• Promote and support water conservation

• Implement water resources master plan and begin implementation of storage development

• Implement public awareness programme

• Develop MIS • Implement Water

Quality improvement programme

• Develop water resources to meet projected new demand and consumption

• Extend networks to increase service coverage

• Achieve compliance with drinking water quality and effluent discharge standards

• Possible reorientation of Coordinating and Support body to Regulating Body if private sector investment improves

• Establish water quality testing laboratories

• Assist communities to form CBOs

• Undertake rehabilitation programme for existing schemes

• Phase 1 development of new schemes

• Enact new legislation for industrial effluent control

• Develop and implement a water quality monitoring programme

• Execute public awareness campaign

• Execute National Industrial Pollution Control Plan, including, public private partnership approach to pollution control

• Undertake training/capacity building to strengthen PIDAs and AWBs

• Implement pilot projects for development of stakeholder participation and then expand

• Initiate pilot projects to evaluate modern irrigation technologies

• Expand the on farm water management programme (OFWM) • Independently monitor and evaluate the OFWM programmes • Line distributaries in saline GW areas • Implement modernisation of barrages • Rehabilitate/improve existing irrigation systems • Prepare studies for modernisation of 2nd priority barrages • Complete revised NDP I • Prepare NDPs II and III and complete NDP II, inc. the spinal

drain • Plan increased cropping intensity as new storage comes on line

• For large storage dams, the hydro strategy follows that for water resources and the nat ional power plan

• For smaller run of river schemes, develop a private investment enabling environment

• Implement the national water quality monitoring programme

• Execute the public awareness campaign on the environment

• Support municipal and industrial waste water control measures

• Improve urban and rural solid waste management to a coverage of 55%

• Enact new legislation where required

• Restart the Second Flood Protection Sector Project, including non physical works and studies, which are important to a holistic approach to flood protection.

• Following the Second Flood Sector Project, implement the proposed Third Flood Sector Project

Sub Sector Water Resources Urban Water Supply and Sanitation

Rural Water Supply and Sanitation

Industrial Water Supply and Pollution Control

Irrigation and Drainage Hydropower Environment Flood Protection

Long Term 2012 – 2025

• Promote and support water conservation

• Implement storage projects

• Maintain effective public awareness programme

• Continue updating MIS • Update and improve

water quality improvement programme

• Continuation of development of water resources

• Continuation of extension of networks

• Continuation of programme to achieve compliance in drinking water and effluent quality standards

• Phase 2 development of new schemes

• Continue to improve monitoring programme

• Monitor and evaluate the National Industrial Pollution Control Plan

• Extend implementation of stakeholder participation to entire network

• Introduce new technologies with the participation of the farmers

• Expand OFWM programme to all watercourses • Continue to monitor saved water • Continue lining of distributaries in saline areas • Continue rehab/improvement of the existing irrigation system • Continue modernisation of second priority barrages • Carry out NDP III including completion of the spinal drain • Implement crop intensification programme

• Monitor, evaluate and improve the national water quality management programme

• Continue a reduced public awareness campaign

• Continue improvement of urban and rural solid waste management with coverage increasing to 90%

Cost US$ Million

Total = 33,622

10,000

5,066

2,173

253

11,099

4,500

113

418

Overall Overall responsibility for the implementation of the Strategy will be with the National Water Council, supported by an Apex Body to be established and developed to necessary capacity within the Ministry of Water and Power.

Federal National Water Council Ministry of Water and Power IRSA

Proposed Coordination and Support Body for urban water supply.

Planning Commission

Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Proposed National Drainage Authority Min of Water and Power Water Wing of WAPDA Private Power Investment Board

Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency

Federal Flood Commission

R

ESP

ON

SIB

LE

O

RG

AN

ISA

TIO

NS

Provincial Planning and Development Departments

KWSB, WASAs, District Councils, Private Sector

Public Health Engineering Departments and District and Tehsil Councils

Provincial Environmental Protection Departments (Agencies)

PIDAs, AWBs and FOs NWFP and AJK Private Power Cells Plus the Private Sector

Provincial Environmental Protection Departments (Agencies)

Provincial Irrigation Departments

PRIORITY To be accorded special priority and funding

Top priority Top priority Licensing and pollution control measures to be given priority

Priority accorded to conservation, modernisation of existing infrastructure, small schemes for poverty reduction, intensification of cropping

Major schemes with major storage, small schemes through private finance

Equal priority to water supply and sanitation, particular emphasis on water quality and pollution control

Second priority, as a result of risk to life

SECTORAL CONSTRAINTS

1. Time 2. Slow growth in Water

Sector Development 3. Project implementation

difficulties 4. Finances

1. Lack of institutional arrangements

2. Lack of consistent approach to funding and regulation

3. Low tariffs and collection rates

4. Non commercial approach to service delivery

5. Poor climate to attract private sector

1. Poor and deteriorating water quality at source and within systems

2. Variable history of community involvement

3. Uncertain impact of devolution plan

1. Inadequate monitoring of industrial effluent

2. Inability to enforce existing effluent quality regulations

3. Inability of industries to finance on-site effluent treatment to comply with regulations.

1. Poor project implementation 2. Scarcity of water 3. Lack of consensus and cooperation 4. Poor information availability 5. Overuse of water in some areas and lack of effort in

conservation 6. Design of the irrigation systems 7. Inequitable distribution of water 8. Low cost recovery and poor maintenance 9. Weakness of institutions 10. Lack of stakeholder participation

1. Consensus and government policy

2. Finances 3. Poor private sector

investment climate 4. Legal and

regulatory issues

1. Low priority accorded to water quality

2. Inadequate institutional capacity to implement effective pollution control

3. Insufficient funding 4. Governance problems 5. Existing legislation is

punitive rather than cooperative

6. Planning is poor and tends to be over ambitious

7. Poor stakeholder and private sector participation

1. Stalling of the Second Flood Protection Sector Project

2. Lack of support for a realistic and holistic approach to flood protection

OVERALL ISSUES Management: (1) Lack of financial sustainability, (2) Inadequate cost recovery, (3) Ineffective public sector management of water sector infrastructure and activities, (4) Limited stakeholder participation, (5) Poor public awareness, (6) Poor water information, (7) No private sector investment or participation, (8) inadequate cost recovery. Technical: (1) Increasing demand for water, (2) Deteriorating water quality, (3) Inadequate domestic water supply and sanitation, coverage and quality of service, (4) Deteriorating irrigation and drainage infrastructure, (5) Waterlogging and salinity on irrigated land and disposal of saline drainage effluent.


4.4 Cost Summary An indicative estimate of the investment costs of the proposed Water Sector Strategy, by sub-sector, is shown in Table 4.1.

Sub-Sector Cost ($US million) Water Resources Development 10,000 Urban Water Supply and Sanitation 5,066 Rural Water Supply and Sanitation 2,173 Industrial Water Supply and Pollution Control

253

Irrigation and Drainage 11,099 Hydropower 4,500 Environment 113 Flood Protection 418 Total 33,622 Table 4.1: Full Cost Summary for the Proposed Water Sector Strategy

Table 4.1 excludes private sector costs and public sector recurrent expenditures, and include only public sector investment in capital costs and related studies and supporting measures necessary to achieve the objectives of the Strategy. The total cost for meeting the full objectives of water sub-sectors as described in the above Sections is estimated at US$ 34 billion.

4.5 Prioritising the Strategy It goes without saying that the total cost of the Strategy, at almost US$ 34 billion over the next 23 years is very high and likely impossible given the availability of finances in Pakistan. Some prioritisation is necessary.

Prior to a prioritisation by sub-sector, the first priority in the Strategy would be to what are referred to as the ‘supporting measures’. These provide the institutional and financial foundation on which the remainder of the Strategy is based and ensure that investments made will be effectively implemented and sustainable. They will also work to reduce


government expenditure on supporting recurrent costs, thus freeing money, which could be better invested in water sector development.

Table 4.2 shows the costs of the Supporting Measures. The costs of the Supporting Measures are also insignificant related to the capital investment involved, at US$ 556.5.

Sub-Sector Cost ($US million) Water Resources Development 18.0 Urban Water Supply and Sanitation 5.5 Rural Water Supply and Sanitation 16.0 Industrial Water Supply and Pollution Control

253.0

Irrigation and Drainage 151.0 Hydropower 0.0 Environment 113 Flood Protection *1 0.0 Total 556.5 Table 4.2: Cost Summary of the ‘Supporting Measures’ Note: *1 – Supporting Measures not separated from overall programme costs.

In both the Draft National Water Policy and the Ten Year Perspective Plan, domestic water supply and the environment (water quality, specifically) are given priority in water sector development.

The proposed priorities for this Strategy are presented approximately, but not entirely in their prioritised order. One exception is irrigation and drainage, which has been prioritised according to individual interventions. The higher priorities of these could be implemented concurrently with the higher priority sub-sectors. The other is hydropower. The government cost component of this is tied in with storage decisions. When and where storage is developed, hydropower should be a component.


Domestic Water Supply and Sanitation and Environment

The proposed priorities for this Strategy maintain domestic water supply and sanitation as top priority. Environment, as defined in the Strategy in its relation to water, would also be an equal priority, because of the emphasis placed on water quality in our stakeholder consultations, and also because of its relationship to the domestic water supply and sanitation sub-sectors. The pollution programme for the industrial sector also comes under this, though it is a relatively low cost to the government, with most of the cost borne by the private sector.

Flood Protection

Flood protection is accorded a second priority because of the risk to life and the significant costs of flooding and its impact on the poor, mainly farmers.

Irrigation and Drainage

Irrigation and Drainage and Water Resources are closely related in that some aspects of irrigation depend on the development of additional storage.

Within the irrigation sub-sector the priorities are as follows:

(a) Conservation The conservation initiative is of the utmost importance as it will save some 4.7 MAF of water for an estimated cost of US$ 1,660 Million. This is compared to the cost of developing an equivalent volume of additional storage of nearer US$ 4,500 Million.

(b) Modernisation and Improvement of Existing Infrastructure Much of the infrastructure and many of the older barrages are in a deteriorated state and in need of improvement. It makes little sense to construct new schemes when existing ones are in poor condition and some at risk of failure.


(c) Small Schemes and Development of Hill Torrents These schemes are mainly developed for poverty reduction purposes and should go ahead, certainly before any of the proposed larger scheme developments.

(d) Intensification of Cropping Intensification is related to developing additional storage, as most of the additional cropping will be in Rabi season for which storage is required. Once a Master Plan is developed for storage, the site specific areas for intensification can be determined.

(e) Development of New Irrigation Areas This should be the lowest priority except where specific poverty reduction is identified.

Water Resources Development

Despite the major cost implications, Pakistan needs additional storage. The cost of storage is beyond the estimated annual availability of funding for the water sector as a whole. Storage projects will need to be considered as ‘special projects’ and funding considered accordingly. Developing additional storage should not interfere with funding for the domestic water supply and sanitation sub-sectors and the environmental initiatives.

Hydropower

As stated above, hydropower should go ahead associated with large storage developments. The run-of-river schemes, which are expected to be financed mainly by bilateral aid and the private sector, should go ahead as a priority when there is opportunity.

4.6 Monitoring and Evaluation Monitoring and evaluation should be carried out to ensure that the Strategy interventions are being implemented and the objectives achieved through them. However, specific monitoring and evaluation programmes need to be developed within the sub-sectoral strategies and performance indicators and a monitoring programme should be


included in the project preparation work which will be carried out prior to starting the projects.

It is proposed that the Apex Body within the Ministry of Water and Power be the executing agency for the Strategy as a whole. It should also take on the role of monitoring and evaluating the progress of the Strategy.


5 THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

5.1 Current Situation

5.1.1 Growth of the Agriculture Sector Agriculture is the single largest sector of Pakistan’s economy, although its contribution to GNP has been steadily declining over the years as other sectors have expanded. Agriculture contributed 24.7% of GNP in 2000-2001. About 68% of the rural population depends on agriculture, which employs over 46 % of the labour force and accounts for more than 60% of foreign exchange earnings.

Agricultural growth in Pakistan has taken place in several distinct phases. The first phase was from Independence in 1947 to 1958, during which growth was driven by expansion in area. The growth rate in agriculture between 1949 and 1958 was only 1.43 %, less than half the growth rate in population. With looming grain shortages, the government realized the crucial importance of the agricultural sector and the need to achieve food self-sufficiency. Special efforts were therefore made to increase irrigation resources to enable expansion of the cropped area and increase productivity. Harnessing of water resources by installing a large number of irrigation tube wells in the sweet water zones was the major factor in development of the agriculture sector between 1959 and 1964. The average annual growth rate of agriculture increased to 3.7% during this period, higher than the population growth rate.

A breakthrough in Pakistan’s agricultural development was achieved through the adoption of high yielding dwarf varieties of wheat and rice in the mid-1960s, coupled with increased fertilizer application, the so-called Green Revolution technologies. From 1965 to 1970 the average growth rate of agriculture increased to 6.3%, almost double the population growth rate of 3.4%.

After the initial success of the basic seed and fertilizer technology, coupled with increased irrigation supplies, growth rates slowed and various problems emerged relating to plant nutrition, pests and diseases,


seed purity and viability and other factors. Nevertheless, agricultural growth continued at a reasonable pace. Amongst the factors responsible for growth in the post-1970 period are the following:

• A substantial increase in cultivated area, mainly because of the harnessing of additional irrigation resources

• Improved production technology developed through research • Increased use of farm inputs, especially improved seed, fertilizer,

pesticides and herbicides • Increasing farm mechanisation and • Improved policy measures, especially pertaining to support

prices for major crops, substantial increases in the supply of agricultural credit, development of agro-processing industries, and land reforms.

The agriculture sector in Pakistan includes five sub-sectors: major crops, minor crops, livestock, forestry and fisheries. In 2000/01 the total contribution of the agriculture sector to the GNP (at constant factor cost of 1980/81) was Rs. 164.3 billion, of which the contribution of the main sub-sectors was:

Major crops 40%

Minor crops 17%

Livestock 38%

Forestry 1.4%

Fisheries 3.5%

It is noteworthy that the livestock sub-sector contributes 38% to the total agriculture sector, which is almost equal to the contribution of major crops. Livestock production has also grown almost consistently at around 5% per annum during the 1990 to 2000 period, whilst the growth of major crops has varied widely from year to year, between –15.6% and +15.5%. The livestock sub-sector has a high potential for development. As the main source of livestock feed from fodder crops, crop residues such as wheat straw, and crops grown specifically for livestock feed,


such as maize, irrigation has a key role to play in the future expansion of livestock production.

5.1.2 Yields and Production of Main Crops The principal crops grown in Pakistan include wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, maize, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables and pulses. There have been noteworthy improvements in gross production and yield of the four major crops, wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane, during the last three decades, as shown in Table 5.1.

Crop Wheat Rice (milled) Sugarcane Cotton (lint)

Year

Prod. Yield Prod. Yield Prod. Yield Prod. Yield 1965/66 3.92 0.76 1.32 0.94 22.31 37.37 0.41 0.261999/00 21.08 2.49 5.16 2.05 46.33 45.90 1.92 0.64 % increase 438 228 291 118 107 23 368 146

Table 5.1: Production and Yield Increases of Major Crops since 1965/66 Source: Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 1999-2000 Production (million tonnes) Yield (tonnes/ha)

Production and yield increases have resulted from commodity price increases (most notably in wheat, as illustrated by the 27% increase in production when wheat prices were increased by 25% in 1999-00), agronomic inputs (research and technology, improved crop management and higher use of agrochemicals) and increases in the availability of irrigation water. With sugarcane, cotton and, to a lesser extent, rice, the differences in percentage production and percentage yield increases is also indicative of most growth in production being accounted for by increasing area rather than improvements in yield. This is not, however, true of wheat, for which yield improvement has been as important a source of growth as crop area expansion. Given the constraints on area expansion, most future growth in crop production will have to come from yield improvement.


A statistical analysis of national average yields carried out in the WRSS has shown that the rates of yield increase achieved in Pakistan’s four main irrigated crops between 1981 and 2000 were approximately as follows:

Crop Yield increase (% per annum)

Wheat 1.50 Rice 0.70 Cotton 1.65 Sugarcane 1.15

Despite these increases, the average yields of most crops except cotton are still far below their potential, as the comparison with yields in other countries in Table 5.2 shows.

Crop Yield (tonnes/ha) Country Rice (paddy) Maize Sugarcane Seed cotton

Pakistan 3.07 1.72 47.78 1.91India 2.97 1.67 69.07 0.85Egypt 8.49 7.25 107.41 2.26China 6.34 5.10 - 2.87USA 6.69 8.30 84.17 1.79World 3.83 4.31 64.69 1.62Table 5.2: Comparison of Crop Yields Source: FAO Year Book and Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan Average yield for 1996-97 (Source Ministry of Land Reclamation and Agriculture, Egypt)

A comparison of wheat yields in several major wheat growing countries is particularly instructive, as shown in Table 5.3.


Country Yield (tonnes/ha) France 7.60 Egypt 5.99 Saudi Arabia 5.36 Punjab (India) 4.80 (4.96*) Punjab (Pakistan) 2.32 (2.67*) Pakistan (average) 2.24 (2.28*) Table 5.3: Comparison of Wheat Yields *Yield in 2000 Source: FAO Year Book and Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan

The average wheat yield in Egypt, where the agricultural conditions in the Nile Delta are similar to those in the Indus Basin in Pakistan, is more than twice that of Pakistan. Similarly, the wheat yield in East Punjab (India) is more than twice that of Pakistani Punjab, despite the similarity in conditions. In fact, the ‘yield gap’ (the gap between present yields and the potential yields which could be realistically attained) is perhaps widest with wheat.

Water logging and salinity as well as water shortages (especially in tail end areas) contribute substantially to the low yields. There are other very important factors, most notably crop price and agricultural inputs and activities, which are closely related to each other. When crop prices are low (as they are now, especially for wheat) farmers are less willing to invest in other agricultural inputs (as below) and much less willing or able to make longer-term investments, such as improved irrigation technology. The agricultural aspects are, inter alia: insufficient improved crop varieties being developed by the research system; an inadequate supply of quality seed, due to seed sub-sector institutional and other constraints; low rates of fertiliser use (averaging not much over 100 kg/ha) combined with an unbalanced fertiliser mix, with too high a nitrogen / phosphate ratio and limited micro-nutrient use; and pest and disease problems.

These constraints are compounded by an uncertain policy environment (especially concerning the prices and marketing of major crops) and ineffective support services. Prices are unstable, and generally low for


wheat and rice. Both the research and extension services are generally weak. Research funding is grossly inadequate and most goes on staff expenses rather than research operation. Research funding fell from Rs 600 M in 1995 to only Rs 355 M in 1999.

Crop pricing in an uncertain global market is a difficult topic because it raises the question of subsidy to support prices within the country. Addressing this issue is beyond the scope of this study, but it is something that needs serious consideration for supporting the changes in irrigation management that are envisaged and for supporting the increases in agricultural production that will be needed during the period of this Strategy.

With the necessary political will and institutional reforms most of the above non-water crop yield constraints could be alleviated, and at a modest cost. Even with the constraints in place, the rate of yield improvement has been substantial, as indicated above. Taking account of the yield gap, past performance and the scope for alleviating the non-water constraints, the prospects for continued yield growth in the future are reasonably promising. Alleviation of the water (irrigation and drainage) constraints would, of course, also contribute to yield improvement. Thus the yield projections in Section 5.3 assume a continuing growth in yields during the period up to 2025.

5.1.3 Land Use Pakistan’s total land area is 307,376 square miles (796,100 km2), of which about 50% is mountainous terrain, narrow valleys and foothills. The Indus Plain, where most of the irrigated agriculture is located, covers about 78,000 square miles (202,000 km2), which is about 25% of the total land area. The Indus Basin Irrigation System commands an area of 14.6 million hectares (Mha). Of the total geographical area of 79.6 Mha, only about 22 Mha are under cultivation. The potential area fit for cultivation, if additional water supplies were available, is the “culturable waste”. The area under this category was 12.5 Mha in 1983/84 but had been reduced to 9.1 Mha by 1999/00. More than half of this area lies in Balochistan province.

Over the 15 years up to 1999-2000, the cultivated area in Pakistan increased by 1.66 Mha (8%) while the total cropped area increased by


2.75 Mha (14%). During the same period, the cultivated and cropped area in Punjab increased by 6% and 19% respectively while the corresponding increases in Sindh were 5% and 0%. Increases in cultivated and cropped area were 28% and 47% in NWFP and 5% and 28% in Balochistan. While non-agricultural land use is directly influenced by demographic factors and development policies, increased water supplies through irrigation result in an increase in the cultivated area and especially in the total cropped area because of the increase in cropping intensity.

5.1.4 Waterlogging and Salinity Waterlogging and salinity pose a major threat to the sustainability of irrigated agriculture. About 30% of irrigated lands are affected, mostly in the Punjab and Sindh. Overuse of water contributes directly to waterlogging and salinity. (See Figure 6.1 in Section 6 on Water Resources for the extent of fresh and saline groundwater in Pakistan).

At present only about 27% of the average annual salt inflow of 33 Mt of salts brought in by the Indus and its tributaries are washed out of the system. Of the incoming salts about 24 Mt are retained in the Indus Basin; 13.6 Mt. in Punjab and 10.4 Mt. in Sindh. The extensive use of groundwater through tubewell irrigation can further degrade land through secondary salinization; at present about 24.7 Mt. per annum of salts are mobilized in Punjab by fresh groundwater tubewells and another 3.5 Mt. of salts are mobilized by tubewells in Sindh.

The impact of salinity on agricultural productivity is severe, resulting in an estimated 25% reduction in output of major crops in Sindh Province, where the problem is much more severe than elsewhere. The critical threshold at which salinity begins to affect the productivity of agricultural land varies with crop type, but the estimated production impact may be closer to 40% to 60% in saline groundwater (SGW) areas.

Soil salinity has been increasing with the expansion of irrigated area. In SGW areas salinity remains at a very high level of 3,900 – 4,000 ppm (parts per million of total dissolved solids), whilst in fresh groundwater (FGW) areas salinity is estimated to have increased from 900 ppm in 1988 to 940 ppm in 1995 (water with less than 1,000 ppm is considered


safe for irrigation). Waterlogging and salinity are most severe in the Lower Indus Plain in Sindh province.

Various interventions, mainly drainage, but also other government interventions, have reduced the rate of loss of land. However, the problem of land loss due to salinity remains and needs to be dealt with. Future developments in irrigation resources and expansion of the cultivated area in the Indus Basin are likely to result in an increase in the area affected by salinity and waterlogging unless corrective measures such as the installation of drainage are taken simultaneously.

5.2 Future Requirements of Agricultural Products

5.2.1 General Food grain security is a major GOP policy objective. In terms of crop commodities, food security is generally taken to mean food grain security, primarily wheat but also, to a lesser extent, rice. At present Pakistan has an import deficit usually equivalent to around 10% of its wheat output, or some 2 M tonnes, but a substantial rice surplus. Since 1990 annual rice exports have fluctuated between 1.0 M tonnes and 2.1 M tonnes and have averaged 1.6 M tonnes, with an upward trend in the second half of the decade. Rice production during this period averaged 4.0 M tonnes but was much higher in the second half of the decade than the first. The important question is how wheat and rice supply demand will evolve; first, over the remaining nine years of the Ten Year Perspective Plan (TYPP) and, second, over the period of the Strategy, up to 2025.

Expansion of crop production is a crucial element in Pakistan’s development strategy, to feed and clothe its growing population and to support rising standards of living. As well as maintaining food security, agriculture should continue to yield reasonable exportable surpluses of rice and cotton, the two principal crop exports.

Commodity price has and will continue to have a great impact, as farmers will increase their crop inputs if they see a potential for a good return. Future increases in crop yield and, by extension, crop production, will depend on good commodity prices.


Two demand scenarios have been considered for planning horizon periods of 2010/11 and 2024/25: a ‘Higher Demand’ based on the production targets given in the TYPP and a ‘Lower Demand’ scenario based on the ‘high’ per capita demand projections for the year 2000 as given in the Report of the National Commission on Agriculture (1988). These include an allowance for a reasonable level of rice and cotton exports. As a simplifying assumption the per capita demands have been held constant over the analysis period rather than increasing or decreasing over time in response to changes in consumption patterns. In the analysis, total demand thus rises in line with population growth (see Section 2.1 for a brief discussion on population).

Requirements have been presented for the country as a whole but not for each province. With Pakistan’s extensive road and rail transport network and relatively efficient marketing and distribution system, deficit provinces are easily supplied from surplus provinces. There is no need for each province to be self-sufficient or food-secure in key commodities – this is important for the country as a whole but not essential for its component parts (the provinces and other administrative units).

There is a very substantial volume of inter-provincial trade, reflecting the comparative advantage of each province in each of the irrigated crops. Thus, for example, Punjab is the only surplus producer of wheat and supplies the other provinces. Balochistan is a major exporter of high quality deciduous fruit to other provinces. All four provinces are surplus producers of rice, but only NWFP has a maize surplus; conditions in Sindh are not suitable for maize. Both Punjab and Sindh produce a surplus of sugar, whereas Balochistan has a deficit and is supplied from the other provinces.

5.2.2 The Lower Demand Scenario For the Lower Demand Scenario estimates for requirements of selected agricultural commodities for the projected population in 2010 and 2025 are calculated on the basis of the high per capita demand projections for year 2000 as given in the Report of the National Commission on Agriculture (1988) are shown in Table 5.4.


Projected Production Requirement (million tonnes)

Crop Per Capita Demand (kg per annum)

2010 2025 Wheat *1 154.0 26.69 34.03 Rice *1 14.5 2.51 3.20 Cotton *2 8.8 1.52 1.94 Sugar 28.4 4.92 6.28 Edible Oil 16.2 2.81 3.58 Maize 12.7 2.20 2.81 Fruit 72.5 12.56 16.02 Table 5.4: Lower Demand Scenario Future Crop Production Requirements

Notes: *1 In addition to the direct human consumption, these figures include a 10% addition for seed, wastage and other losses. *2 Including both domestic consumption and the export of yarn and cloth

5.2.3 The Higher Demand Scenario In the Higher Demand Scenario the targets for production of the major crops, which are outlined in the Ten Year Perspective Plan (TYPP) have been adopted. These targets are significantly higher than the domestic requirements of food and fibre for all major crops except fruit. For fruit the TYPP target is 10.58 M tonnes, whereas the requirement estimated in Table 5.4 for the Lower Demand scenario is 12.54 M tonnes. The fruit requirement for 2010/11 has therefore been taken as 12.54 M tonnes for both scenarios. The Higher Demand requirements for 2025 have been fixed at 20% higher than those for 2010/11, to keep pace with the 27% higher population as well as still keep exportable surpluses.

Table 5.5 shows the projected Higher Demand crop production requirements and also, for the purposes of comparison, the Lower Demand requirements from Table 5.4. The TYPP targets include large allowances for exports, even of wheat, and ambitious rates of output growth, well above historic levels. The TYPP 2010/11 national output targets for the four major crops require the following growth rates in production: wheat 4.6% per annum, rice 3.5%, cotton 4.8% and


sugarcane 3.3%. Since annual population growth is currently around 2.5% and is expected to decline steadily in the future, this implies a substantial increase in per capita consumption and/or in exports of various agricultural commodities.

Existing Production and Projected Production Requirement (M tonnes)

Crop

2000 2010 2025 Higher Demand Scenario

Wheat 21.11 29.00 34.80Rice 5.16 6.70 8.04Maize 1.65 3.13 3.76Cotton 1.91 2.92 3.50Sugarcane 46.33 60.57 72.68Fruits 5.85 12.54 15.05Oilseeds 4.41 10.34 12.41

Lower Demand Scenario Crop/year 2000 2010 2025 Wheat 21.11 26.69 34.03Rice *1 5.16 5.70 6.20Maize 1.65 2.20 2.81Cotton (lint) 1.91 2.10 2.20Sugarcane 47.50 55.20 65.00Fruits 5.85 12.54 16.02Oilseeds 4.41 5.02 6.41

Table 5.5: Projected Production Targets for Higher and Lower Demand Scenarios

Notes: *1 The 2010 and 2025 requirements allow for a continued high level of exports. The domestic demands shown in Table 5.4 are much lower than the 2010 and 2025 production requirements shown here.

Increased exports of cotton and rice may well be feasible but the economic value and feasibility of large-scale exports of wheat and sugarcane is questionable. Wheat exports would be competing with the low-cost producers of North America and Australia and sugar exports would be competing with low-cost producers such as Brazil, Cuba and Australia. In view of the above, the ‘Higher Demand’ scenario can be


regarded as clearly an upper bound projection. For the major food grains consumption per head of wheat and rice is unlikely to increase substantially as incomes rise. The income elasticity of demand for these crops is low and per capita consumption may even decline in the future, as incomes rise and consumers spend more on non-staples such as meat, fruit and vegetables and less on the staple food grains.

In view of the above, the Lower Demand scenario is considered more realistic and is the one that has been used as the ‘base case’ for planning purposes. For comparison purposes, however, the analysis of future crop areas and irrigation requirements in Sections 5.4 and 5.5 covers both scenarios.

5.3 Projected Yields of Major Crops There is little potential for expanding the area under rainfed agriculture. There is some scope for increasing the amount of land under irrigation but this is expensive and will be water intensive. Thus future agricultural growth will have to come largely from yield improvement and increased cropping intensities on the country’s existing irrigated land. Intensification of cropping will be dependent on sufficient irrigation water being available to supply the increased crop acreage, and increased water availability in the rabi season, as much of the increased cropping will be achieved by cropping in this period. Provision of the necessary water will involve considerable effort and cost, through improving irrigation efficiencies and increasing surface water deliveries by means of new reservoir storage and other engineering works.

Crop yield improvement will therefore be the principal source of agricultural growth in the future. As described in Section 5.1.2, over the years there has been a steady improvement in the yields of the major crops. Given the constraints under which Pakistan’s farmers have been operating, this is a praiseworthy achievement. With the favourable resource base (good soils and climate for crop production) and the other factors discussed in Section 5.1.2, yields can be expected to continue to grow in the future. Improvements in the provision of research, extension and other agricultural supporting services are clearly desirable. Nevertheless, the fact that yields have grown steadily over the past two decades, despite the recognised weaknesses in such services, indicates


that, even if service provision is not much improved, yields will increase, though probably to a lesser extent.

Based on extrapolation of the linear trends developed in the WRSS regression analysis of the rates of yield increase recorded in the 1981 to 2000 period, Table 5.6 shows the projected yields for 2010 and 2025, and also the 1996-2000 average yields and the 2000 yields. The projected yields have been used to estimate the required 2010 and 2025 areas for the major crops for attaining food grain security and also producing reasonable exportable surpluses in rice and cotton. They are soundly based, since they are the actual growth rates achieved over the past 20 years in the country as a whole.

Recent, Current and Projected Yields (tonnes/ha)

Crop

1996-00 average

2000 2010 2025

World Average in 1999

Wheat 2.19 2.49 2.64 3.23 2.70Rice (paddy)

2.95 3.07 2.98 3.31 3.83

Maize 1.66 1.66 2.08 2.55 4.31Cotton *1 0.56 0.64 0.76 0.95 0.54 *2

Sugarcane 46.90 47.00 54.65 64.39 64.69Table 5.6: Current and Projected Yields of Major Crops

Notes: *1 An alternative WRSS regression analysis of historic cotton yields indicated a logarithmic (concave-shaped) trend for the future growth of cotton yields, giving a projected 2025 lint yield of only 0.73 t/ha. Since this results in a higher (more conservative) cotton water demand than the 0.95 t/ha yield shown here, it is the yield that has been applied in the Higher Demand crop area and water requirement projections in Tables 5.8 and 5.9. *2 Much of the world’s cotton is grown under non-irrigated conditions, where yields are lower than under irrigation.

5.4 Projected Irrigated Crop Areas Future irrigated crop areas for the two demand scenarios have been estimated on the basis of the production requirements in Tables 5.4 and 5.5 and the crop yields in Table 5.6. However, due to scarcity of water, it


has been assumed for planning purposes that the areas under rice, sugarcane and cotton will not increase beyond the existing (2000) areas under these crops. A similar assumption has been made for oilseeds. In this situation rice and cotton output would still be sufficient to provide large export surpluses and sugar output would be only slightly below domestic requirements. Table 5.7 shows the projections made.

Under the Lower Demand Scenario, which is the base case for the study analyses, the total irrigated area would increase by 15% between 2000 and 2010, at an average annual growth rate of about 1.3%. This is somewhat above the 0.9% rate achieved in Pakistan between 1980 and 2000 and may be unrealistically high. The 26.11Mha figure for 2010 is based on full self-sufficiency in wheat. If, instead, it were assumed that Pakistan would continue to import a small proportion of its wheat requirements, as it has done for many years, at the historic level of 2 M tonnes per annum, the 2010 figure would fall to 25.35 Mha. The resultant annual growth rate would then be a somewhat more realistic 1.1%.

Over the 2000 to 2025 period as a whole, however, the implied growth rate is more modest, the 2025 projection of 27.26 Mha representing an average annual growth rate of total irrigated crop area of about 0.7%. Overall, therefore, the crop area projections based on the Lower Demand Scenario are considered to provide a sound basis for planning. In contrast, the Higher Demand-based projections in Table 5.7 result in an unrealistically large expansion in crop area, the 2010 and 2025 areas being 36% and 40% respectively above those of 2000. With annual wheat imports of 2 M tonnes these figures would be somewhat reduced, the total crop area being 25.35 Mha in 2010, as noted above, and 26.64 Mha in 2025.

If past rates of crop yield growth can be maintained in the future, a not unreasonable assumption, the prospects for keeping pace with the growth in demand for domestic consumption, plus maintaining an exportable surplus in rice and cotton, appear to be favourable, and form the basis of the Lower Demand Scenario.


Existing and Projected Cropped Areas (M ha)

Crop

2000 2010 2025 Higher Demand Scenario

Wheat 8.46 10.97 10.76 Rice 2.52 3.37 3.64 Maize 0.96 1.50 1.48 Cotton *1 2.98 4.27 4.81 Sugarcane 1.01 1.11 1.13 Fruits 0.66 1.16 1.14 Oilseeds 0.61 1.19 1.17 Vegetables 0.22 0.39 0.38 Others 2.56 3.73 3.84 Fodder 2.79 3.19 3.48 TOTAL 22.77 30.88 31.83

Lower Demand Scenario Crop/Year 2000 2010 2025 Wheat 8.46 10.11 10.54 Rice 2.52 2.52 2.52 Maize 0.96 1.06 1.10 Cotton 2.98 3.00 3.00 Sugarcane 1.01 1.01 1.01 Fruits 0.66 1.16 1.21 Oilseeds 0.61 0.58 0.60 Vegetables 0.22 0.33 0.38 Others 2.79 3.15 3.42 Fodder 2.56 3.19 3.48 TOTAL 22.77 26.11 27.26 Table 5.7: Estimated Projected Cropped Areas

Notes: *1 Based on the more conservative projected cotton yields referred to in the footnote to Table 5.6.

Taking the Lower Demand scenario as the base case, it will, however, require an expansion in irrigated crop area of some 4.5 Mha (or 3.9 Mha


if wheat imports continue at 2.0 M tonnes per annum) by 2025. Most of this expansion should come from intensification of cropping on existing irrigated areas rather than the development of new irrigated land. Nevertheless, even with improvements in irrigation efficiency the total requirements of water to be delivered by the country’s canal systems will rise considerably. These requirements are estimated in Section 5.5.

5.5 Projected Irrigation Water Requirements As shown in Section 5.4, for meeting the production targets of the Lower Demand Scenario it is estimated that the cropped area will need to be increased by 3.34 Mha by 2010/11 and by 4.49 Mha by 2025. Most of the growth in cropped area should be achieved through intensification of existing area rather than through expansion into new areas, though an aerial expansion of about 0.8 Mha is envisaged for targeting poverty reduction. Table 5.9 shows the resulting irrigation water requirements.

LOWER DEMAND SCENARIO Year

2000/01 2010/11 2024/25 Requirement/Availability

BCM MAF BCM MAF BCM MAF Net Water Requirement

Net Irrigation WaterRequirement

95.32 77.31 109.65 88.94 113.52 92.08

Groundwater Availability for Consumptive Use

37.91 30.75 38.53 31.25 39.14 31.75

Net Surface Water Requirements for irrigation

57.41 46.56 71.12 57.69 74.38 60.33

Irrigation Efficiency 0.40 0.40 0.425 0.425 0.45 0.45

Canal Head Requirements 143.53 116.42 167.35 135.74 165.28 134.07

Mean Annual SurfaceWater Available

128.00 103.81 128.00 103.81 128.00 103.81

Shortfall 15.53 12.61 39.35 31.93 37.28 30.26 Shortfall ( %) 10.83 23.51 22.56 Table 5.9: Estimated Future Water Requirements, Lower Demand Scenario


The values in Table 5.9 should be regarded as broad estimates, developed solely for the purpose of examining the water resources needs of the future. There are unavoidable uncertainties involved and major assumptions have had to be made. Their reliability is highly dependent upon the assumptions made with respect to the availability of groundwater, the future growth of demand for agricultural products, future trends in crop yields, cropping patterns and the rate of improvement in irrigation efficiencies.

The availability of groundwater remains a subject of debate and the assumption of 1 MAF of additional groundwater is a conservative one. It is the conclusion of this study that there is little scope for increasing groundwater production, but it is likely that well development will continue, even if at a low rate. It is likely that groundwater use will become self-regulating as either increasing salinity or decreasing groundwater tables make abstraction less attractive. If, on the other hand, there is more available groundwater than assumed, it will be a bonus, but should not be counted on.

Future crop requirements are based on full self-sufficiency in wheat, even though the country has been importing an average of 2 M tonnes annually for many years now. If imports were to continue at this level the total irrigated crop area in 2025 would be reduced from the 27.3 Mha in the Table 5.7 by about 0.6 Mha, or 2.3%. The canal head requirements in Table 5.9 would also be somewhat decreased.

The canal head requirements presented in Table 5.9 are partly based a recommended increase in irrigation efficiencies from the current estimate of 40% to 45% by 2025. The calculation of the improved efficiencies is given in Table 10.4, Section 10.2.2. While there may be scepticism as to whether this can be achieved, there is significant scope for this modest increase, through farmer education in water application in the field and through on-farm water management in the form of lining watercourses in saline areas. Potential water saving through improving irrigation efficiency (also shown on Table 10.4) is, by 2011, 2.3 MAF and by 2025, 4.7 MAF.

With reference to the overall water resource potential of Pakistan, it is essential that conservation through improving irrigation efficiency be


achieved. With the growing demands for water and the limitations of the resource, not achieving the required increases in crop production, improving availability of water through water conservation or improving availability of water through storage are the only options. Conservation is by far the least expensive option as well as the more sustainable. Achieving this level of increase in irrigation efficiency will require a determined effort on the part of both the agriculture and irrigation authorities and be backed up by political will to make it happen.

The conclusions from the above analysis are clear; surface water supplies for irrigation will have to be increased or a lower level of crop production accepted.

The estimates in Table 5.9 suggest that canal head requirements will increase by over 19 MAF by 2011 and almost 18 MAF by 2025 (the lower canal head requirements by 2025 are due to the assumption of a further 0.5 MAF of groundwater available and a continuing increase in both irrigation efficiency and crop yield).

At present the agricultural sector is managing to meet demand for its products with a mean annual surface water supply of 103.8 MAF (128 BCM). The indicated ‘shortfall’ of 12.6 MAF is the shortfall as compared with established water requirements. And, given that there is currently significant overuse of water as evidenced by the waterlogging and salinity problem (see Section 10.2), it is questionable whether this is truly a ‘shortfall’. If this shortfall is to be eradicated, the additional water supply requirement would be 32 MAF in 2011 and 30 MAF in 2025. Even if the ‘shortfall’ continues to be accepted, the additional requirements would be over 19 MAF in 2011 and almost 18 MAF in 2025.

These additional requirements imply that additional storage is needed, and for two reasons. The first is that there is little scope for additional resource development other than storage. The second is that the major part of the expansion in crop acreage will be through increasing intensity and will rely more on rabi cropping (almost half of the estimated 4.5 Mha increase in annual crop area up to 2025 would be in wheat, primarily a rabi crop). Though not covered in this agricultural discussion, most of the projects which have been targeted at increasing irrigated agricultural


area, including those which are now ongoing, were designed assuming, and can only reach their potential with, additional water supplies through increased storage. The implications for the future development of new storage reservoir capacity are discussed in Section 6.

For comparison purposes the Higher Demand water requirement estimates have also been shown, in Table 5.10 but, as has already been stated, it is considered overly ambitious. The estimates include an improvement in irrigation efficiency to 50%, rather than to the 45% assumed for the Lower Demand scenario.

HIGHER DEMAND SCENARIO

Year

2000/01 2010/11 2024/25

Requirement/Availability

BCM MAF BCM MAF BCM MAF

Net Water Requirement


95.32 77.31 133.10 107.95 134.70 109.25


37.91 30.75 38.53 31.25 39.14 31.75


57.41 46.56 94.57 76.70 95.56 77.50

Irrigation Efficiency

0.40 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.50 0.50

Canal Head Requirements

143.53 116.40 210.16 170.44 191.11 155.00

Mean Annual Surface WaterAvailable

128.0 103.8 128.0 103.8 128.0 103.8

Shortfall 15.53 12.59 82.16 66.64 63.11 51.20 Shortfall ( %) 10.82 39.10 33.02

Table 5.10: Estimated Future Water Requirements, Higher Demand Scenario


An improvement of this magnitude would be far more difficult to achieve in practice. Despite this optimistic assumption, the water requirements for the Higher Demand Scenario are clearly much higher than the total available resource, even if sufficient storage were constructed to utilise all available water. For the reasons given in Section 5.2.3, the Higher Demand scenario is considered to be overly optimistic and does not provide a realistic basis for planning.

5.6 The Strategy for the Agriculture Sector While this study is not specifically concerned with the agriculture sector, the sector is of great importance to the water sector as it is by far the largest consumer of water in Pakistan. A detailed strategy has not been developed, but the following points should form part of an agriculture sector strategy:

(i) Improve cooperation and coordination with the irrigation sub-sector;

(ii) In cooperation with the irrigation departments, work to improve water use efficiency from 40 to 45%;

(iii) Increase crop yields through, agricultural extension and the following interventions;

(iv) Increase funding to research in agriculture; (v) Improve farmer access to better seed varieties. (vi) Improve the agricultural policy environment, especially

marketing and crop prices to improve the potential for export of higher value crops.

It has been the case that there is insufficient coordination between the agriculture and the irrigation and drainage sub-sector, which are so intimately related. Specific efforts need to be made to improve this, especially in the areas of on-farm water management and farmer education for improved water use at the farm level. This is crucial to achieving the increases in irrigation efficiency, which is essential to meeting future cropping demands.

Research has been weakening in recent years because research funding is grossly inadequate and has declined from Rs 600 M in 1995 to only Rs 355 M in 1999. This needs to be reversed.


Crop yields have been increasing even without good extension services, but it is essential that this continue through improving farmers’ knowledge of improved agricultural inputs (most importantly, to increase low rates of fertiliser use and improve fertiliser mix).

Farmers have had insufficient access to high quality seed, mostly through institutional constraints in the seed sub-sector. This needs to be addressed through a partnership with seed producers.

The policy environment is very uncertain, especially concerning the prices and marketing of major crops. Farmers need to be confident in their ability to earn money through investment in their crops and they must be able to afford to improve their yields through better inputs. While this may imply subsidy through support prices, it is something that needs serious consideration for supporting the changes in irrigation management that are required. Though it is considered incorrect to discuss subsidies, they are a reality throughout the world, and nowhere more so than in the industrialised nations.


6 WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT


6.1.2 Surface Water The Indus River and its tributaries (Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej and Beas Rivers on the east and Kabul River on the west), which drain an area of 364,700 sq. miles (944,569 sq. km), are the main source of surface water in Pakistan, which bring an average of 151.58 MAF (187 BCM) of water annually. This includes 143.18 MAF (173.63 BCM) from the Western rivers (Indus, Kabul, Chenab and Jhelum) and 8.40 MAF (10.37 BCM) from the Eastern Rivers (Ravi and Sutlej). The flow from Eastern Rivers includes inflows from India as well as those generated within Pakistan. The average contribution from the flows generated within Pakistan is about 3.99 MAF (4.92 BCM). Allowing for a potential reduction in inflows from the Eastern Rivers through increased utilisation by India, the long-term total surface water availability in the Indus Basin is estimated at 147.17 MAF (181.55 BCM).

In addition to the Indus there are several smaller basins which can be grouped into two main hydrologic units in Balochistan, namely the Kharan Desert, which is a closed basin, and the Makran Coastal Basin, which flows to the sea. The rivers in the Makran basin have an average flow of about 3.0 MAF (3.69 BCM), which could be harnessed for use on a total area of 6.87 Ma (2.78 Mha). The rivers in the Kharan Basin have an average inflow of 0.79 MAF (0.97 BCM), which could be used, on a total area of 2.62 Ma (1.06 Mha). Some flood irrigation is practised based on these inflows. The rivers carry a high sediment load, exacerbated by degrading watersheds and are flashy in nature.

The river systems of Pakistan are shown on Figure 6.1.


6.1.3 Groundwater The Indus Basin is mainly alluvial and is underlain by an unconfined aquifer covering about 15 MA (6 Mha) in surface area. There is less certainty about the extent of groundwater outside the Indus Basin, but, in Balochistan, there are several aquifers, which are exploited for domestic water supply and irrigation.

The main sources of recharge are direct rainfall and infiltration through the alluvium from rivers, the irrigation system and from the irrigated fields. Estimates of groundwater recharge have been made by several agencies over the years and vary significantly. The recent estimates are shown in Table 6.1.

In Punjab about 79% of the area and in Sindh about 28% of the area is underlain by fresh groundwater, which is mostly used as supplemental irrigation water and abstracted through tubewells.

Significant areas are underlain by saline groundwater. Water from the Salinity Control and Reclamation Project (SCARPs) tubewells in the saline areas is generally disposed of into drains and, where this is not possible, it is discharged into the large canals for use in irrigation after diluting with the fresh canal water or into the nearby river. This does have an impact on increasing soil salinity.

Groundwater Use

From the perspective of groundwater use, it is estimated that about 41.6 MAF (51.3 BCM) of groundwater is abstracted for irrigation use and for domestic water supplies. Provincially the groundwater usage is estimated at 34 MAF (41.9 BCM) in Punjab, 3.5 MAF (4.3 BCM) in Sindh, 2 MAF (2.5 BCM) in NWFP and 0.5 MAF (0.6 BCM) in Balochistan.

Before the introduction of irrigation the groundwater table in the Indus Basin varied from about 40 feet (12.5 m) in depth in Sindh and in the Bahawalpur area of Punjab, to about 100 feet (31m) in Rechna Doab (the area between the Ravi and Chenab Rivers) in the Punjab. After the introduction of large scale irrigation the groundwater table rose due to uncontrolled seepage from the system and a lack of drainage facilities.


In some areas the water table has risen to near the ground surface, waterlogging the soil, causing salinisation of the soil and reducing productivity.

MAF BCM Water Sector Investment Planning Study (1990) Total 45.58 56.19Recharge from: Canals 17.83 21.99Water courses 17.83 22.00Link canals 2.22 2.74Precipitation 1.38 1.70Rivers 1.40 1.70Provincial Breakdown Punjab 27.43 33.82Sindh & Balochistan 16.75 20.65NWFP 1.40 1.73Contribution of Private Tubewells in the Development of Water Potential Total 50.47 62.23Provincial Breakdown Punjab 31.00 38.22Sindh 13.00 16.05Balochistan 2.60 3.21NWFP 3.85 4.75Pakistan Water Partnership Framework For Action (2000) Total 55.00 67.80Study of Exploitation and Regulation of Fresh Groundwater Interim Report (2001) Total 53.30 65.70Provincial Breakdown Punjab 40.00 49.30Sindh 10.00 12.30Balochistan 2.40 3.00NWFP 0.90 1.10Average of National Estimates

51.09 62.98

Table 6.1: Estimates of Groundwater Recharge

In the late 1950s the government embarked upon a programme of Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects (SCARPS) wherein large,


deep tubewells were installed to control the groundwater table. Over a period of about 30 years some 13,500 tubewells were installed by the Government to lower the groundwater table. These projects initially proved quite effective in lowering the water table but with time the performance of SCARP tubewells deteriorated.

The development of deep public tubewells under the SCARPS was soon followed by private investment in shallow tubewells. Now more than 500,000 tubewells supply about 41.6 MAF (51.3 BCM) of drinking and supplemental irrigation water every year, in periods of low surface water availability and to tail end users and farmers on watercourses who, because of insufficient management of the irrigation system, do not receive their share. During the recent drought, many more tubewells were installed, but the number is not known.

In Balochistan the water table has been declining continuously. A number of studies have estimated that the deficit in Quetta sub-basin is about 21,000 AF (26 million m3)/ year and that the aquifer storage will be exhausted in 20 years.

Recently (February 2002), the Punjab Private Sector Groundwater Development Project released its report, Groundwater Management and Regulation in Punjab: Achievements and the Way Forward. The report states that, while the advent of tubewells and the proliferation of private tubewells in Pakistan have had a positive impact on agriculture, especially in improved reliability in water access and increased cropping intensities, “uneven groundwater development and pumping through private tube wells (PTWs) has started showing stress on the aquifer in the form of excessive draw downs and deterioration of groundwater quality in parts of the Province.”

People, farmers and community residents alike, have come to rely on groundwater to augment irrigation water and village domestic water supplies. Reliance on this water has been beneficial especially to those farmers lower in the system (the tail-enders) because it improves the reliability of their water supply. Hence, the loss of the groundwater resource (either through reduced quality or the increased cost of access) will also have greater impact on the tail-enders, who tend to be the poorest in the system.


Active management of groundwater abstraction is recommended in the study through a Groundwater Regulatory Framework (GWRF). The alternative is ‘self regulation’, in which the declining water table and declining water quality result in the abandonment of some wells, and this is seen as a poor alternative. It can be argued that it is preferable to manage, but with 500,000 tube wells, this will be very difficult.

Future Groundwater Potential

The total groundwater use of 41.6 MAF, compared with the average estimated groundwater availability of 51.1 MAF, suggests a potential for further exploitation of about 10 MAF. However, the estimates are necessarily rough, given the limited and sometimes conflicting information available. In addition, other evidence, notably declining water levels in many areas and increasing salinity in others, suggests that there is little, if any, further groundwater potential.

In the absence of hard evidence to the contrary, it is more prudent to assume that groundwater use is nearing the upper limit of the resource in most parts of Pakistan.

6.1.4 Canal Diversions and the Water Accord The mean annual canal diversions for Indus Basin Irrigation System over the last 26 years (post construction of Tarbela Dam, from 1975-76 onwards), is 103.84 MAF (128 BCM). The average diversions after the Water Apportionment Accord (1991) have ranged between 81.07 MAF (100.0 BCM) in 2000-01 and 111.11 MAF (137.1 BCM) with an average of 103.3 MAF (127.4 BCM). The drought of the past few years has had a strong and cumulative impact. In 2000-01 the diversions were as low as 81.07 MAF (100.0 BCM), mainly due to reduced availability in early Kharif flows, in turn resulting from a very low total inflow of 129.56 MAF (159.8 BCM) in 1999-2000.

Over these 11 years since the Accord, it has never been possible to divert the full 114.35 MAF (141.1 BCM) allocation which is the basis of the Accord, even though the inflows in four consecutive years 1994-95 to 1998-99 remained well above average. This is mainly a storage problem, as the most critical shortages occur in early kharif when inflows


are low, irrigation requirements are high and there is insufficient water in the storage reservoirs for release.

6.1.5 Declining Storage The average canal water availability and hydropower generation from Mangla, Tarbela and Chashma is declining and will continue to decline as their combined live storage capacity reduces from the original 15.7 MAF (19.4 BCM) to an estimated 11.7 MAF (14.4 BCM) by 2010 due to sedimentation. In 2000 the remaining capacity was estimated at 12.8 MAF (15.8 BCM), a 20% reduction over the original capacity. By 2025, losses at the same rate would mean a further reduction of 1.6 MAF, for a total capacity loss due to sedimentation of 5 to 6 MAF.

6.1.6 The Water Balance of the Indus Basin The water balance of the Indus system under average inflow conditions is shown in Table 6.2. The water balance considers the present level of average canal diversions and takes into consideration the future possible uses by India both on the Eastern as well as the Western rivers. For this water balance, it is assumed that the flow generated in Pakistan on the Eastern Rivers will compensate for the allowable uses by India on the Western rivers. Also, the average canal diversions have been considered instead of the provincial allocations under the Water Accord, as the present system cannot divert the allocated amount under average inflow conditions unless additional storage is developed to provide the allocated amounts in early Kharif and Rabi.

Under average inflow conditions 29.44 MAF (36.30 BCM) of surplus flow are available for meeting the shortfalls in the average canal diversions and has potential for augmenting supply while still meeting the likely environmental needs below Kotri Barrage (despite several studies no consensus has been reached on what the actual requirements may be).

On average 38.01 MAF (46.89 BCM) flow to the sea annually. Over the last 26 years a total of 988 MAF (1,219 BCM) has flowed into the sea, which is equivalent to more than nine years of average canal withdrawals during the same period. Once the environmental needs are assessed and agreed the remainder of the water could be effectively utilised for supplementing irrigation and hydropower generation, but only with additional storage.


Discharge Description (MAF) (BCM)

Inflow Western Rivers Inflow 143.18 176.54 Eastern Rivers Inflow 8.40 10.37 System Losses -9.90 -12.21 Net Inflow 141.68 174.69 Outflow Provision for future use by India on Eastern and Western Rivers

8.40 10.36

Average Canal Diversions 103.84 128.03 Net Outflow 112.24 138.39 Available Surplus 29.44 36.30

Table 6.2: Water Balance of the Indus System

A mass diagram showing the cumulative inflow from the Western rivers and the canal withdrawals for the post Tarbela period is presented in Figure 6.2. It indicates the gap between availability and use of surface water and shows a possible potential draft (withdrawal) of the order of 128 MAF (158 BCM), still leaving enough surpluses for meeting the environmental requirements below Kotri. This draft will only be possible if enough storage capacity is provided in the system to capture large flows through a cascade of reservoirs and use the stored water in dry seasons / years.


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1 11 21 31 41

Σ SupplyWestern Rivers only

Σ Draft

Permissible Draft

1975-76 1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 1999-2k

MAF

MAF

Figure 6.2: Mass Diagram of the Indus River System (1975-2000)


6.1.7 Planning and Decision Making While there are many agencies with responsibility for the various water sub-sectors and for water resources, there is no agency with the mandate to plan, manage and, perhaps most importantly, make overall decisions for the benefit of the country as a whole. Lack of agreement on water resources development has contributed to the low investment in the water resources sector for many years, though there has been improved activity in this past year in response to the WAPDA Vision 2025.

There is an obvious need for a Water Resources Apex Body to plan and manage water resources as a whole, considering the resource side as well as the needs of all water sub-sectors.


(a) Implementation of the Water Sector Strategy; (b) Coordination of all water user organisations; (c) Establishment of policy for allocation of water between water use


(MIS) for the Water Sector; (f) Developing and executing a strong Public Awareness campaign

to improve public understanding of water issues.

The majority of stakeholders at the Second National Workshop, following the Preliminary Draft Strategy, rejected the idea of another government body to oversee water sector development, arguing that there are already enough water agencies and Pakistan does not need another. However, there is a need to make some changes in how water is managed. In addition to the fact that there is not an overall planning and management body, Pakistan is now moving into a new regime of being a water scarce country and a different management structure is needed to address this situation. The proposed Water Resources Apex Body is discussed further in Section 14.1.


6.1.8 The Information Base Information on water resources is limited and not very accessible. There is also apparently frequent misinformation associated with the politicisation of water resources mentioned above. Consensus building is essential to enable effective decision making in water resources and continued disputes over the information, which is available, does not help this situation. Developing a good information base, which is in the public domain should be a priority.

A step in this direction is currently being taken by the Government as it is proposed to establish a telemetry system for transmitting data on gauge heights and gate openings etc. on important structures including dams, barrages and canal headworks etc. This data will be instantly available. The current plan still emphasises access by officials in the federal and provincial governments, but should be extended to the public domain. Once the system is operational it will avoid disputes relating to data collection and its authenticity.

However, a full Management Information System (MIS) should be established to which all interested parties should contribute to and have access to.

6.1.9 Water Quality

Surface Water

Water quality in the rivers and other surface waters is reasonably good with respect to salinity, important for its use in irrigation. But, in some reaches, water quality is poor with respect to BOD, DO and other indicators of pollution because of unchecked disposal of untreated municipal and industrial wastewater, inadequate disposal of solid waste and agricultural runoff.

As the resource limit approaches and base flow in the rivers decreases, the dilution potential of the surface waters is declining.

Though information is lacking, it is the general consensus that water quality continues to deteriorate, as enforcement of existing legislation


and regulations is ineffective. Water quality monitoring and information management is very inadequate, but is crucial to any water quality improvement programme.

Water quality is discussed further in the discussions on urban and rural water supply and sanitation (Sections 7 and 8) and environment (Section 12) but it is also raised here because it is a water resources issue.

Groundwater

Groundwater quality is a major issue in Pakistan, mainly in southern Punjab and Sindh. Fresh groundwater (salinity less than 1000 mg/l TDS) occurs mainly near the major rivers and salinity increases to highly saline (> 3000 mg/l TDS) with increasing distance from the river. The general distribution of fresh and saline groundwater in the country is well known and mapped as it influences the options for irrigation and drinking water supplies. Figure 6.3 shows the extent of fresh and saline groundwater. Across the country some 14.2 MA (5.75 Mha) are underlain with fresh groundwater (<1000 mg/l TDS), 4.54 MA (1.84 Mha) with salinity between 1000 and 3000mg/l TDS and 10.57 MA (4.28 Mha) with salinity greater than 3000 mg/l TDS.

About 79% of the area in Punjab province has access to fresh groundwater. Some 9.78 MA (3.96 Mha) are underlain with groundwater of less than 1000 mg/l TDS, 3 MA (1.22 Mha) with salinity ranging from 1000 to 3000 mg/l TDS and 3.26 MA (1.32 Mha) are underlain with groundwater of salinity of more than 3000 mg/l TDS.

In Punjab there are also areas with high fluoride content in the groundwater. Some districts have also shown concentrations of arsenic but after investigations by water quality experts the conclusion is that arsenic is not a significant problem. UNICEF continues to monitor the situation and is making field-testing kits available in all four provinces.

Many industries in the province discharge their wastes onto the land, which ultimately pollutes the groundwater, with some areas showing high levels of TDS, chromium, sodium and sulphide. Nitrate and pesticide contamination of groundwater has also been noted in many areas.


Only 28% of the area in Sindh province has access to fresh groundwater suitable for irrigation. Indiscriminate pumping has resulted in contamination of the aquifer at many places where the salinity of tubewell water has increased.

In NWFP abstraction in excess of recharge in certain areas has lowered the water table and resulted in the contamination from underlying saline water.

In Balochistan the Makran coastal zone and several other basins contain highly brackish groundwater. As there is no alternative, local communities use groundwater for drinking purposes with TDS as high as 3000 mg/l. In the Mastung Valley, the groundwater has been found to have high fluoride content. Groundwater in the Makran coast and Kharan areas has also been reported to have high fluoride content.

In summary, groundwater in large areas of Pakistan is saline and in some areas the quality is deteriorating due to contamination from industrial, municipal and agricultural waste and also due to salt-water intrusion from over pumping.

The quality of both surface water and groundwater is becoming one of the major water resources issues in Pakistan. Without effective control of over abstraction, disposal of municipal, industrial and agricultural wastewater and solid waste disposal, groundwater quality is expected to deteriorate further.

6.1.10 Public Awareness Public awareness and understanding of water issues is lacking and needs to be addressed in order to garner public support for the changes in water management that will be needed in the immediate and longer term. There is frequent coverage of water issues in the daily English language newspapers, read by probably less than 10% of the population, but little in the Urdu press. Much of what is written is sensationalist or based on poorly informed opinion or misinformation, but that there is discussion at all is very positive.


There is a great need to increase the level of public understanding of water issues, including water quality, and a strong Public Awareness Programme is recommended.

6.2 Need and Potential for Additional Storage The water resources situation in Pakistan could be summarised as having three basic features:

(i) there is very little scope for developing new resources of either surface or groundwater;

(ii) the existing volume of storage is declining due to sedimentation of the reservoirs with a consequent reduction in water availability and hydropower generation; and

(iii) the increasing demands for water over this next quarter century cannot be met with existing resources and storage infrastructure.

As is discussed in Section 6.1.5, the storage capacity reduction due to sedimentation of Mangla and Tarbela dams and Chashma reservoir will be 5 to 6 MAF by 2025. Section 5.5 presents an estimate of future water needs, primarily for agriculture. While these are very broad estimates, developed solely for the purpose of examining the water resources needs of the future, they indicate the magnitude of water requirements. In Section 5.5, Table 5.9 shows that there will be a shortfall in water availability (as compared with canal head requirements) of some 30 MAF by 2025.

It is also the case that there is currently a shortfall of approximately 12 MAF. It can be argued that the irrigation systems are coping with this shortfall and, indeed, there is waterlogging over large areas caused by overuse of water. However, even maintaining a shortfall of 12 MAF, the additional water needed to meet the agricultural needs of Pakistan in the future would be 18 MAF. In addition, much of the agricultural requirements will be met by increased cropping in the rabi season. These needs can only be met through additional storage.


The estimates of future water requirements are admittedly rough. Development of any new storage must also be viewed within the integrated context of the water resource and water use assessing the potential for saving water through conservation and reconsideration of water allowances for irrigation schemes. However, it is apparent that, with the combination of replacing lost storage and the need to meet the agricultural and other requirements of the future, additional storage of 20 to 25 MAF will be required. This is in addition to what water could be saved through conservation and rationalising water allowances.

Developing additional storage would involve construction of new reservoirs and would most likely comprise a cascade of reservoirs on the Indus, with a capacity to capture large flood flows and release them for use in subsequent dry seasons/years. This arrangement would provide better water management potential and greater hydro generation capacity. It would still maintain sufficient flows to meet the requirements downstream of Kotri and be better able to regulate flows.

There are several storage sites, which have been assessed over the years and are at various stages of preparedness, as shown in Table 6.3.

In recent years the development of large dams has been looked upon unfavourably because of the significant environmental, social and cost implications. However, most of the water needs in Pakistan will be within the Indus system and, given the size of the Indus, large storage is the only realistic option.

The total volume of potential storage sites being considered presently as shown in Table 6.3 is 22.5 MAF. Of these, Gomal Zam, Mirani are ongoing. Mirani is outside the Indus Basin. Gomal Zam would contribute little to the lower areas of the Indus system. Satpara, which has a very small storage volume, is likely to start soon. These dams together will provide only 1.46 MAF.

Basha Dam has also been slated for feasibility study, which has started recently in the very near future. There are some difficulties with Basha, such as a relatively high cost of construction because of its remoteness and the need to transport all materials as well as the power plants over a great distance, including over many bridges, which may have


inadequate load capacity. There is also the need to move some 40 km of the Karakoram highway.

Dam Site Storage Capacity

(MAF)

Power Capacity

(MW)

Status Design & Construction Period (years)

Cost (M$US) (2000)

Gomal Zam Dam 1.14 17.4 OG 4 167 Mirani Dam 0.30 - OG 4 118 Satpara Dam 0.02 0.20 OG 3 10 Munda Dam 0.68 740 FS 9 750 Kalabagh 6.10 3600 FS, DD,

TD 8 5000

Sehwan Barrage 0.65 - FS 7 610 Kurram Tangi Dam

1.20 1.20 FS 7 200

Raising Mangla Dam

3.10 180 FS 5 883

Basha Dam 5.70 3360 PF 12 6000 Sanjwal & Akhori 3.60 TBD C 12 600 Total 22.49 9498.8 N/A N/A 14338

Table 6.3: Potential Storage Sites Presently Being Considered

Status: OG Construction started/likely to be started shortly FS Feasibility Study ready DD, TD Detailed design and Tender Documents ready PF Pre-feasibility study ready. FS, DD & TD to be prepared C concept exists. PF, FS, DD & TD to be prepared. TBD To be determined Costs for most dams the costs are from the WAPDA Vision 2025 For Munda and Sewhan, costs were determined in this Study

Kalabagh has been identified in several previous studies as technically the best alternative. It is also the easiest large storage to construct, being close to sources for construction material and machinery. It is also important that, given the urgency of meeting increasing water demands a large storage is constructed as early as possible. Kalabagh is at the furthest stage of preparedness, with feasibility, detailed designs and tender documents prepared in the 1980s. New environmental and social


impact assessments would be necessary, and costs and tender documents would need to be updated, but Kalabagh could be ready for construction within a year from the decision to go ahead, and hence could be on line by 2011.

However, it is the decision to go ahead which is the main barrier to the development of storage. Additional storage has become a highly charged political issue. Despite the need for additional reservoir storage on the Indus river system to ease irrigation water shortages in the rabi and early kharif seasons, during the past two decades the development of major new storage dams has been halted by the inter-provincial water dispute. A consensus is urgently needed on the storage issue. Hopefully, resolution of the dispute will be facilitated through the establishment of the proposed National Water Council and Apex Body for overall management of water. The Integrated Water Resources Master Plan will determine the needs of storage within its overall context. This is discussed further in Section 6.5 and Section 14.1.

Many of the irrigation related projects in the Indus Basin currently proposed for implementation were designed based on additional storage. The benefit of their development is significantly devalued without additional storage and, in most cases; the projects would be economically infeasible. It should be noted that several of these projects, which require additional storage to meet their design criteria, are now ongoing and are included as ongoing projects in the MTIP. The allocations in the Accord itself are also based on expected additional storage. These will not be met without it.

In order to determine the real storage requirements with more precision and formulate an appropriate storage development programme, a Storage Master Plan should be prepared in the short term. The Storage Master Plan would also determine the level of Indus flows required for environmental purposes downstream of Kotri and mitigation measures where flow regime changes affect the coastal environment. It would also necessarily include a study of all the implications of developing storage into account. The Storage Master Plan must also follow the guidelines of the World Commission on Dams (WCD) which outlines the criteria and issues to be addressed in considering dam and reservoir development.


6.3 Objectives In this study the water resources sub-sector is defined as that which works to ensure that there is sufficient water of good quality available for all users. The objectives are to:

(i) Provide sufficient water to meet the needs of all water sub-sectors based on the principles of Integrated Water Resources Management.

(ii) Ensure effective planning and decision making at the national level through the National Water Council and an effective Water Resources Apex Body to implement the Strategy.

(iii) Regulate groundwater abstraction where appropriate and feasible.

(iv) Improve water quality, with links to environment, municipal, industrial and agricultural sub-sectors.

(v) Develop an information base to affect good management of water resources.

(vi) Develop public awareness and understanding of the issues in water resources.

Provision of Water for all Sub-sectors

Irrigation dominates water use in Pakistan and the irrigation sub-sector dominates water resources planning and decision making. While irrigation will continue as the major user of both surface and groundwater, there will be as increase in the demand for the supply of water for urban and rural domestic use, industrial use and the needs of the environment. The Ten Year Perspective Plan and the Draft National Water Policy both place domestic water as the highest priority and also give a high priority to the environment. The needs of these sub-sectors must be given equal weight to irrigation in overall planning and management of water.

It has been shown in this study that some 20 to 25 MAF of additional storage is needed to meet the water demands of the next quarter century. It will be the task of the water resources development sub-sector to analyse the needs precisely and plan for its development.


A decision on storage will require a strong national commitment, which satisfies the concerns and overcomes the objections of the provinces for the greater national good. The conservation needs will also require a strong and focused commitment at the national level and at the provincial level to achieve the required level of efficiency.

In considering additional storage and other aspects of water availability, consideration should be given to providing the infrastructure needed to supply the full accord provision to Balochistan and NWFP.

Planning and Decision Making Through the National Water Council and Apex Body

A National Water Council (NWC) is proposed which would be the major policy and decision making body. The NWC will be inter-ministerial and inter-provincial in its focus and mandate. The Apex Body will be established within the Ministry of Water and Power (MWP). This would be an expansion of responsibilities of the Ministry of Water and Power and will require a change in the charter of the MWP so that it would cover all water sub-sectors. The first task of the Apex Body would be to prepare an Integrated Water Resources Master Plan to determine the needs and development priorities for conservation, storage, watershed management and water resources development as a whole. The NWC and Apex Body are discussed in the section on the Water Resources Development Strategy, Section 6.5, below.

Groundwater Regulation

There is considerable concern about overexploitation of groundwater, with some areas of particular concern and regulation of groundwater has been considered. On a national basis this would be very difficult because of the sheer number of wells. In some areas, such as around Quetta in Balochistan, specific interventions may become necessary and would be dealt with locally. Balochistan has implemented regulations for exploitation of groundwater.


Information

Good quality and trusted information is the key to good quality and trusted decision making. A Management Information System (MIS) for water at the national level, linked with similar provincial systems should be developed as a priority. This should be held with the proposed Water Resources Apex Body, if implemented. Another possibility is the Pakistan Council for Research in Water Resources, which has already begun a water quality database. There should be strong connections with WAPDA in any case, as they possess the trained and qualified personnel to handle the technical aspects of the MIS.

Water Quality

The quality of both surface water and groundwater is becoming one of the major water resources issues in Pakistan. The main implementing agency may be the Environmental Protection Agency, with strong links to the agriculture sector and the municipal and industrial sub-sectors. Control of groundwater abstraction in certain areas, proper disposal of municipal, industrial and agricultural wastewater and environmentally sound disposal of solid waste are necessary.

A good water quality monitoring system should be developed for both surface and groundwater, combined with an MIS for information management and dissemination.

Public Awareness

The changes needed to achieve the difficult objectives in the water sector will require public support and understanding. A public awareness programme should be developed and implemented as a priority, again by the Water Resources Apex Body.

6.4 Constraints The main constraints to the achievement of the strategy for water resources development are:

(i) Time: because of the rapid pace required in the progress of the water sector;


(ii) Recent slow progress in water resources development; (iii) Problems in implementation of water sector development; (iv) Financial limitations; (v) Lack of an Apex Body to oversee and implement

development.

Time

Perhaps the most pressing constraint is time. The population is growing rapidly and with it demands for water, food and power. The water resource is at its limit and the volume of existing storage is declining. Major works take many years for planning, design and construction. Large storage, for example, is now unlikely to come on line before the end of this current decade.

Slow Development of the Water Resources Development

There has been little investment in water resources projects for many years, though this is now improving with the Vision 2025 initiatives. Though finances have been a factor, a contributing problem is the lack of consensus on developing projects which benefit the country as a whole. Establishing the proposed National Water Council and Water Resources Apex Body of national scope, which have the power and authority to make decisions over and above the controversies should be the number one priority in the water resources sector.

Difficulties in Project Implementation

Related to the above, there have been difficulties in project implementation in the last decade or more. There are two main reasons for this. The first is that funds for projects are not fully committed at the onset of that project. Funds then dry up and the project is not completed. This is simply a waste of money, which the country cannot afford.

The second is that conditionalities agreed at the time of loan negotiations between the federal government and international lending agencies subsequently become a subject of controversy by the


implementing agencies. Usually the conditionalities involve sector reforms which remain a subject of debate.

While changes need to be made in the approaches of the implementing agencies, the lending agencies must also be aware of these problems and, between them, come to a compromise. Further investment in the water sector in general, but especially for larger water resources projects, depends on this.

Limited Funds

Finances are always a limitation, but to accomplish the objectives of the water sector, so important to the economic development of Pakistan, finances will have to be very carefully directed and waste minimised. Realistic planning needs to be carried out for the water sector as a whole and for water resources development specifically.

6.5 Proposed Water Resources Development Strategy The proposed Strategy for the water resources development sub-sector is:

(i) Institute an inter-ministerial and inter-provincial National Water Council.

(ii) Establish a Water Resources Apex Body to oversee water sector development as a whole, as key implementing agency of the Strategy.

(iii) Undertake an Integrated Water Resources Master Plan. (iv) Develop sufficient additional storage to meet the water

needs of the future. (v) Promote and oversee initiatives in water conservation and

improvement of water quality. (vi) Implement a Public Awareness Programme on water

resources and conservation issues. (vii) Develop a Management Information System (MIS) for

water and related information. (viii) Develop and implement a comprehensive Water Quality

Improvement Programme.


Water for the additional needs of the future will come from a combination of conservation and storage. Conservation will mainly come from the agriculture / irrigation sector (see Sections 3 and 8) through various interventions.

Additional storage is also needed and there is good potential for it, though it is capital intensive. Developing additional storage will first require a consensus between the provinces on the acceptability and location of storage projects. This should be achieved as a priority.

Institution of a Water Resources Apex Body

A National Water Council (NWC) is proposed which would be the major policy and decision making body and lead water planning, development and management in Pakistan. The NWC will be inter-ministerial and inter-provincial in its focus and mandate. It will be chaired by the Prime Minister, with members likely consisting of the Ministers of: Water and Power, Food and Agriculture and Environment, plus: Secretary, Water and Power, Secretary Finance, Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, the Chief Ministers of the four provinces, with FATA, Northern Areas and AJK. The Chief Engineering Advisor, MWP would be the Member Secretary.

The Apex Body which supports the NWC will be established within the Ministry of Water and Power (MWP) and will be the lead agency in implementing the Water Sector Strategy. This would be an expansion of responsibilities of the Ministry of Water and Power and will require a change in the charter of the MWP so that it would cover all water sub-sectors, plus water resources development, not just irrigation, hydropower and flooding as it does now.

The Apex Body will require extensive capacity building as its new mandate will be an expansion of current activities and the staffing levels are currently too low to carry out the fairly large task of supporting the NWC in its role of decision making for the whole of the water sector.



(a) Implementation of the Water Sector Strategy; (b) Coordination of all water user organisations; (c) Establishment of policy for allocation of water between water use


(MIS) for the Water Sector; (f) Developing and executing a strong Public Awareness campaign

to improve public understanding of water issues.

The first task of the Apex Body would be to prepare an Integrated Water Resources Master Plan to determine the needs and development priorities for conservation, storage, watershed management and water resources development as a whole. Primary components of the Master Plan are, the need for storage, the potential and strategy for conservation of water, including reconsideration of water allowances, and the environmental needs of rivers including the Ravi and Sutlej and the Indus downstream of Kotri.

Develop Appropriate Additional Storage

The Integrated Water Resources Master Plan will determine, along with conservation potential, watershed management needs, water allowance needs and environmental requirements, the optimum volume and best location of additional storage. A strong commitment must then be made to developing additional storage, but the provinces must be assured that they will receive their allocated share of water once the storage has been built. Once these decisions and commitments have been made, the storage should be developed as quickly as possible.

Based on the assessment in Section 6.2, the development of Kalabagh Dam as the first step in additional storage appears to be the best option. Further storage will be required, roughly estimated at 20-25 MAF including Kalabagh, but this will have to be assessed properly in the Master Plan.


Water Conservation

While the water resources development sub-sector is not a user of water it has a role to play in promoting water conservation among the other sub-sectors. Conservation in irrigation is an integral part of this strategy, aiming at some 4.7 MAF of water saving through improved irrigation efficiencies. This has major cost implications to the water resources development plan, considering that 4.7 MAF could save several billion dollars by reducing the storage requirements.

Public Awareness

The Water Resources Apex Body should lead the development and implementation of a national Public Awareness Programme to inform the public about the water resources issues and their responsibilities in conservation and other concerns. This should be carried out in cooperation and coordination with other Public Awareness Programmes proposed for the rural water supply and sanitation, industrial and environmental sub-sectors.

Management Information System

Develop as a priority a Management Information System (MIS) for all water information at the national level. This should be carried out in cooperation with the provinces and federally administered areas and be networked with similar provincial systems to form a high quality national system with access by all interested parties. The Water Resources Apex Body should be the executing agency for this, but collaborate with other agencies and research organisations, especially WAPDA, who have the trained personnel to carry out the work, and the Pakistan Council for Research in Water Resources who have some background in information systems and who are knowledgeable of the water information needed for effective research.

Water Quality Improvement

Develop and implement a comprehensive Water Quality Improvement Programme to improve water quality, both surface water and groundwater. The main implementing agency may be the Environmental


Protection Agency, but the Water Resources Apex Body could aid in promotion and providing expertise to the EPA. Strong links should be developed and maintained with the agriculture sector and the municipal and industrial sub-sectors.

The proposed Strategy is shown in Table 6.4.


Immediate and Short Term Medium Term (to 2011) Long Term (to 2025) Institute the inter-ministerial, inter-provincial National Water Council (2003)

Establish an Apex Body within MWP for to assess and plan water resources developments in the national interest. (2003-2004)

Carry out capacity building in the MWP Apex Body. (2003-2005)

Promote and support water conservation efforts among the various water sub-sectors.



Prepare a Integrated Water Resources Master Plan to determine needs and potential for conservation, environment and an appropriate storage development programme. (2003-2004)

Complete feasibility studies for all potential storage sites and prioritise to plan storage development determined through the Storage Master Plan. (2004-2006)

Implement storage projects for the required level of storage. (2005-2025)

Carry out a feasibility study for a Public Awareness Programme on water resources issues. (2003)

Implement the Public Awareness Programme. (2004-2007)

Maintain a reduced but effective Public Awareness Programme. (2007-2025)

Carry out a feasibility study for a Management Information System (MIS) at the national level in cooperation with the provinces and federally administered areas. (2003)

Implement the Management Information System (MIS) at the national level in cooperation with the provinces and federally administered areas. (2004-2007)

Continue upgrading and updating the MIS. (2008-2025)

Develop a comprehensive Water Quality Improvement Programme. (2003)

Implement the Water Quality Improvement Programme. (2004-2006)

Maintain update and improve the comprehensive water quality improvement programme. (2007-2025)

Table 6.4 Water Resources Development Strategy Interventions


6.6 Cost Estimate

The full cost of the water resources strategy is difficult to estimate, primarily because much will depend on the choices made regarding additional storage. However, based on Table 6.3, the total cost of constructing all of the structures in the table would be US$ 14,338 million for 22.5 MAF. This is approximately the total amount of storage estimated in this study. However, significant savings of the order of US$ 4.5 billion through water conservation initiatives, which should be given the highest priority, if only on the basis of cost saving.

In addition there are several studies and developments, for which costs are also estimated in Table 6.5.

Project Cost (M US$)

Capacity Building in Apex Body 3.0Water Resources Master Plan 2.0Public Awareness Programme 3.0Development of MIS 8.0Water Quality Improvement Programme 2.0 Total without storage 18Cost of 22.5 MAF of Storage 14,338Total (including storage) $US 14,356Total with 4.7 MAF of water saving achieved US$ 10,000Table 6.5: Cost Estimate for the Water Resources Strategy

The cost of developing additional storage is beyond the available annual funds estimated for the water sector as a whole. If the decision is made to develop storage, this will have to be considered as a special initiative, with more than the usual funding being dedicated to the water sector.


7 URBAN WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION


7.1.1 Introduction Public water supply (urban and rural combined) in Pakistan represents a small component, currently estimated at around 3.2 MAF (3.9 BCM) per annum, representing some 3% of total water use. Added to this is industrial water supply, estimated at 1.1MAF (1.4 BCM), much of which is obtained through municipal systems. The relative importance of domestic water supply to the population is, however, recognised in the Draft National Water Policy and the Ten Year Perspective Plan plans and its need for priority acknowledged.

Migration of population to urban areas has been a feature of demographic trends over the last 30 years and is expected to continue over the 2025-planning horizon for this study. In 1972, a quarter of Pakistan’s population lived in urban areas. The current proportion is about one third and projections suggest that, by 2025, more than half will live in towns and cities.

At present, almost a quarter of Pakistan’s urban population lives in Karachi. The next five largest cities (Lahore, Faisalabad, Rawalpindi, Multan and Hyderabad) contain a further quarter of the urban population. The Provinces of Punjab and Sindh account for 87% of Pakistan’s urban population.

Urban water supply, including industrial water supply, currently uses 4.3 MAF, which is projected to increase to 6.4 MAF by 2011 and 8.4 MAF by 2025. Given the top priority of domestic water supply, this volume will have to be found either through developing additional storage or by taking it from current irrigation uses. It will require increasing the current level of population served by some 80 million people.


For the purpose of strategy development, the urban population is defined, as in the 1998 population census of Pakistan, as that lying within the areas served by metropolitan and municipal corporations, municipal and town committees and cantonments.

Domestic service coverage is defined in terms of house connections to piped water distribution and sewerage systems.

7.1.2 Water Supply Present potential demand from urban public water supply undertakings is estimated at around 4.3 MAF per annum, including industrial supply. Resource and production constraints, however, mean that not all of the potential demand can be met. Lack of metering makes it difficult to quantify the proportion of total demand currently met. The best estimate is that, for the largest water supply undertakings (supplying 48% of Pakistan’s urban population), the proportion may average 75%. For smaller towns and cities, the proportion is probably less.

The service provided by the municipal water and sanitation undertakers is primarily directed towards providing piped water via house connections, either directly or through bulk supply retailers. A relatively small proportion of the population is supplied by means of communal standpipes and the provision of tankered supplies, though tankering is a marginal activity.

Present overall service coverage for water supply to the urban population is assumed, in the Ten Year Perspective Plan (TYPP), to be 83%. Estimates made in the present study for piped water supply are 55% to 90% for the larger cities with a weighted average around 71%. For smaller towns the average is nearer 50%. The overall average urban coverage for piped water supply (excluding illegal connections) may, therefore, be around 60%. The Pakistan Integrated Household Survey for 1998 suggests 55%. The difference between the TYPP figure of 83% and the 60% estimate arrived at for this study may be accounted for by domestic consumers who choose not to be connected to the public supply systems and rely on privately owned wells.


7.1.3 Water Quality The reported quality of water entering the distribution systems is generally satisfactory. Conventional treatment is provided where the raw water comes from surface sources (predominantly in Sindh Province) or where groundwater quality is less than adequate. Quality deteriorates within the distribution system as a result of de-pressurisation of the mains during rotational cuts and the generally poor condition of the distribution infrastructure. Under these conditions, chlorination cannot be effective in preventing bacterial contamination.

Pakistan is unusual in that no government agency appears to have been given responsibility for independently monitoring drinking water quality or enforcing standards. In most countries, this function is carried out at regional, provincial or municipal level by an agency of the Ministry of Health. At present, the service providers operate under self-regulation. WHO drinking water standards are used as a benchmark in the absence of national drinking water quality regulations.

7.1.4 Sewerage and Sewage Treatment Domestic sewerage is assumed in the TYPP to cover 59% of the urban population. Present coverage of access to sewer connections for Karachi, Lahore and Faisalabad (where the water supply undertakings serve 38% of Pakistan’s urban population) averages 56%. For the remainder of the urban population, the coverage may lie between 40 and 45%, though this is little more than an informed guess. Access to piped sewerage by the whole urban population may, therefore, be in the range 45-50%.

The present total sewage treatment capacity is estimated at 339 Ml/d, which represents less than 1% of total domestic sewage generated in urban areas. Some of this capacity is unused due to lack of sewerage infrastructure. Most of the sewage treatment plants in Pakistan are not in working order.

Sanitation coverage needs to be improved and expanded to comply with environmental regulations. The strategy recommendations for the industrial sector are to ensure industries undertake on-site treatment of wastewater before disposal. Municipal and industrial effluents should be


targeted simultaneously. Emphasis should be placed on getting the existing treatment plants functional.

7.1.5 Financial Provision and Performance Water and sewerage services in Pakistan are provided as a public service, the cost of which is subsidised from federal and provincial government budgets. At the district level the development of water supplies has been the responsibility of provincial government Public Health Engineering Departments (PHEDs) and has been provided wholly at government expense. With the advent of the Devolution Plan the burden of cost has been transferred to district level, though it is as yet uncertain what the impact of this will be on financing urban water supply systems.

The present sources of finance include: revenues from tariffs (the levels of which are regulated by central government), contributions from urban property tax, loans and “ad hoc” government subsidies in the form of grants. At present levels, these are insufficient to cover the costs of providing the service. They are also unpredictable in timing or amount and so cannot form a sound basis for the planned long-term investment needed to maintain and develop the infrastructure to the extent that government policies can be achieved.

The Pakistan Urban Sector Strategy Study (Draft Final Report, June 2000, Para 61) suggests, on the basis of comparisons with power tariffs, “Water tariffs are … too cheap”. Analysis carried out for the present study indicates that they are well below the normally accepted affordability threshold.

There are annual budgets for basic operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, though these are generally inadequate to properly maintain the systems. No routine financial provision is made to cover asset depreciation or infrastructure renewal. As a consequence, renewal of the infrastructure and operational assets can only be carried out at government expense as major capital projects. Estimates prepared for this study suggest that annual provisions averaging 55% of O&M costs should be made for asset renewals. Taking O&M and asset renewal costs together, revenues cover only 64% of requirements.


Similarly, there is no self-financing of investment to extend the systems to serve additional customers, to improve levels of service or to comply with improving environmental protection standards. Such investment can, at present, only be funded from government taxation revenues or by loans from external sources, thus adding to the country’s debt servicing costs.

Since government finance at any level is subject to many competing demands, funding constraints in the water sector have meant that levels of service are below customers’ reasonable expectations and that public health and environmental compliance standards can not be met.

The combination of low tariffs and inadequate collection of revenues from customers has been inadequate to cover costs. With the exception of Karachi, revenues do not even cover O&M costs, let alone other recurrent costs for replacement and improvement and extension of services. For a sample of WASAs (in cities representing 44% of the urban population), total revenue covers only 80% of annual O&M costs as a population weighted average. There is awareness, however, particularly in the larger WASAs, that this situation is unlikely to be allowed to continue in the longer term and efforts are being made to reduce the deficits.

In the larger cities, present tariff levels, together with contributions from the urban property tax, may be adequate to cover the operational costs at present service levels. However, this could only work with effective revenue collection and credit management. Interestingly, government organisations are a prime culprit in non-payment of water and sewerage charges.

Underfunding has resulted in a large backlog of asset maintenance throughout the sub-sector. This impinges upon quality of service to the extent that some potential customers are opting to provide their own supplies from private tubewells, despite the higher cost of such arrangements. This, in turn, results in loss of revenue to the undertakers, further restricting their ability to finance essential asset renewal and extension.


Flexibility to increase tariffs in line with increasing costs would also be needed. The current tariff-setting procedure does not automatically take account of costs, especially those which are beyond the control of the water supply undertakers. The cost of electricity, for example, is a growing proportion of total operational expenditure and, in some cases, exceeds the revenue being collected. There would also be a need to include efforts to regularise illegal connections.

Even with improved collection, present levels of revenue are not sufficient to provide for the investment needed to increase coverage, raise service levels and improve environmental compliance. Neither are they adequate to attract private sector investment of financial or other resources, which could result in improved outputs and efficiency. At present levels of revenue recovery and subsidy (of both capital operating costs), levels of service will continue to decline as the urban population increases. Ability to comply with public health and environmental protection standards will also further deteriorate.

In other countries, involving the private sector is seen as one way of improving investment or management or both. In Pakistan, with the exception of a small number of service contracts for plant operation and revenue collections, there has been no significant private sector investment in the water supply and sanitation sub-sector. While full privatisation may not be popular, there are many ways to involve the private sector which may be beneficial to water undertakers. An objective assessment of the potential for involving the private sector is needed.

Distribution system renewal should run in parallel with revenue improvement programmes because they complement each other. While replacing mains, for example, an opportunity is provided for the detection and regularisation of illegal connections. At the same time, loss reduction and improved reliability result in greater willingness of customers to pay for services. For example, a 32% improvement in revenue collection in Quetta was attributed to a 77% increase in water production.


7.1.6 Intermittent Supply and Metering The common practice in most urban water supplies in Pakistan is to operate on intermittent supplies, providing water for a few hours a day. This causes several problems. Providing safe drinking water to customers and meeting future drinking water quality standards are impossible while intermittent supply is a feature of routine operation. Intermittent supply has also led to the installation of ground tanks in most properties, which are not fitted with overflow valves. This leads to significant wasting of water as customers leave the water running to ensure they are filled. Furthermore, water meters will not function effectively under these conditions.

The transition to 24 hour supply creates the potential for very high levels of waste unless float valves in the tanks are fitted. This could be done most efficiently in conjunction with household metering projects and systematic elimination of illegal and un-registered connections.

Experience elsewhere (e.g. Malaysia) has shown that individual household metering brings major benefits in terms of more economic water use by customers, and in revenue recovery and credit management by water supply undertakers. Pilot projects in Ukraine and Kazakhstan resulted in initial savings of around one third in household consumption. Customer metering might, therefore, be a significant factor in achieving full cost recovery, financial sustainability and promotion of PSP. It would merit a start to implementation very early in the Strategy period.

7.1.7 Affordability The comment is often made that people cannot afford to pay (or pay more) for water. But the abstraction, treatment and distribution of water cost money. Only two realistic options exist for meeting the costs of water supply and sanitation services: through taxation or through the full cost of services being met directly by the consumer, though the current economic orthodoxy is for the latter. It is also recognised that there are social, political and humanitarian dimensions to this question. A balance must be met between the needs of the public water undertakers to recover the full costs of the services they provide and the duty of government to protect the interests of the poorest sections of the population. The balance needs to be defined through government policy.


If it is accepted that the road to improved and more efficient utility services lies with the evolution of financially self-sustaining undertakers, government at all levels will need to take direct responsibility for the implementation of social policy. This will mean that the level of social subsidies will need to be sufficient to enable customers to pay the full cost of the services they use. In this context, full cost recovery does not imply exploitation of a natural monopoly against the best interests of the customer.

The international funding agencies commonly assess the affordability limit for water and sewerage services as 4 or 5 % of lower quartile household income. On this basis, present tariffs for connected households are about 50% of the affordable limit for the urban population. Though this may not apply to the poorest sections of the population it does show some scope for self-financing of service improvements by the water undertakings for cost recovery and achievable improvements in financial performance. Serious consideration needs to be given to raising tariffs, improving collection efficiencies and allowing flexibility to the water undertakers to raise sufficient revenues to ensure sustainability of their water supply and sanitation systems.

7.1.8 Management The public water supply and sewerage sub-sector in Pakistan is fortunate in possessing many highly qualified, experienced and well-motivated engineers, managers and technicians. There is commitment within the urban water supply and sanitation sub-sector to providing an up-to-date service of piped water supply and sewerage via individual house connections. This is clearly consistent with the expectations both of government and customers alike. However, they are held back by inadequate and ad hoc funding arrangements.

Operational efficiency is constrained by a large, inflexible and poorly paid workforce. In terms of employees per 1000 equivalent connections, average numbers in the undertakings serving Pakistan’s major cities are comparable with those encountered in the countries of the former Soviet Union where similar factors apply. These include,

• lack of centralised control systems and plant automation,


• political pressure related to the need to provide employment, • conservative trade unions

Project procurement and implementation is characteristic of a piecemeal approach to capital investment and the absence (with one or two exceptions) of long or even medium-term strategic planning. This hampers timely project implementation and efficient investment of capital. Conservative procurement methods and bureaucratic procedures for government approval and allocation of funding are also not conducive to strategic investments.

There is no means of formulating and evaluating strategic options or for monitoring the implementation of national policies for public water and sanitation services. As noted in the Pakistan Urban Sector Strategy Study (Draft Final Report, June 2000, Para 47), “The planning functions of these various organisations (provincial and local government administrations) are carried out independently, egotistically, with minimum co-ordination, reflecting the lack, and / or ignoring of any strategic planning”.

This has resulted in wide differences in approach to planning among the water service providers. In some cases, (e.g. Faisalabad and Quetta) master plan studies have been carried out and are being implemented in stages. In others, (e.g. Karachi and Lahore), the need to update or prepare such plans has been recognised as a high priority. In many cities, however, projects are being promoted to meet short or medium term needs or to remedy existing operational problems without apparent reference to longer-term objectives. Smaller cities and towns are particularly hindered because of weaker capabilities in planning and coordination.

There is a keen awareness among the WASA MDs and other senior officers of the challenges facing the sub-sector and there is a strong motivation to bring about improvements. This motivation is the best guarantee that the government’s objectives for the sub-sector will be achieved, but it needs the support of a firm commitment to policies which will ensure adequate, long-term funding.


7.1.9 Customer Relations The inadequate investment which has been a feature of the sub-sector has resulted in most customers in Pakistan currently receive a low cost, low quality service, despite the best efforts of the urban water and sanitation undertakers.

Initiatives are in hand in some cities to improve arrangements for handling customer contacts. While these will not eliminate public criticism, they will assist the undertakings in providing a more customer-focussed service.

7.1.10 Private Sector Participation in Urban Water Supply and Sanitation The idea of private sector participation and the commercial approach, which this brings, is changing attitudes and expectations regarding customer relations throughout the sub-sector. Water supply undertakers in Pakistan are beginning to respond to this challenge and will benefit from improvements in this area. At this time, however, the climate for private sector involvement is inadequate because of the very uncertain political and regulatory environment.

Given the potential for the private sector to improve management and reduce costs to the government, especially recurrent costs, strong consideration should be given to determining ways to improve the current climate and attract the private sector to the sub-sector. Annex 1 provides a discussion on considerations for private sector participation in urban water supply and sanitation.

If private sector participation in the sub-sector is to become a reality, there will need to be strong regulation. Annex 2 provides a discussion on a regulatory framework for private sector participation.

7.2 Objectives The main objectives for the urban water supply and sanitation sub-sector are:

(i) Increase coverage to 96% of the urban population with clean water supply;

(ii) Increase coverage to 80% of urban population connected to functional sewerage;


(iii) Achieve full financial sustainability in all urban water developments;

(iv) Achieve full compliance with EPA standards for drinking water;

(v) Achieve full compliance with EPA standards for wastewater disposal;

(vi) Develop a water quality information management system for data storage and assessment.

The strategy objectives dealing with coverage of water supply and sanitation are based on the goals and objectives cited in the Pakistan Draft National Water Policy and the Ten Year Perspective Plan (TYPP). They refer to household connections for both water supply and sewerage and they refer to all major cities as well as smaller cities and towns.

The financial objective of sustainability is based on the principles of:

(a) appropriate levels of cost recovery to ensure that the responsible operating agencies are financially viable;

(b) appropriate charging systems to ensure that adequate services are provided to all users, including poor and disadvantaged communities, at an affordable cost;

(c) private sector participation in appropriate areas of the water sector;

(d) urban wastewater charges that comply with the principles of cost recovery and the polluter pays, especially for commercial and industrial users;

While it is unlikely that full financial self-sufficiency will be achieved, financial sustainability can be. Full financial self-sufficiency implies full cost recovery, which is not feasible in a country with high rates of poverty. To be financially sustainable, there may still be an amount of government support or subsidy, but there must still be a concerted effort to charge and collect reasonable rates for water service delivery and financial support from the government must be a clear part of the service’s financial plan.


The water quality objectives are based on the principles of:

(a) establishing and maintaining water quality standards for potable water;

(b) ensuring that effluent from wastewater is treated before disposal (c) the preservation of surface water and groundwater resources to

ensure sustainability of supply;

7.3 Constraints The primary constraints to the continued development of the urban water supply and sanitation sector are:

(a) The inadequacy of institutional arrangements for formulating and evaluating strategic options or for monitoring the implementation of national policies for public water and sanitation services;

(b) The lack of a consistent approach to funding and regulation; (c) Low tariffs for water and sanitation, inadequate and inconsistent

collection rates and a lack of policy for setting and collecting water charges;

(d) An inefficient and non-commercial approach to service delivery; (e) Limited attractiveness to the private sector.

Inadequate Planning, Coordination and Monitoring

The absence of institutional arrangements providing for consistent planning, coordination and monitoring of policy implementation is probably the greatest barrier to the achievement of government policies for the sub-sector.

Inconsistent Approach to Funding and Regulation

The lack of a consistent and transparent approach to funding and regulation will severely limit the extent to which financial sustainability can be achieved or the benefits of private sector participation can be realised.


Government policies acknowledge the need to promote the principle of full cost recovery to ensure that the service providers are financially viable. However, there is no guidance to agencies as to how financial viability may be achieved or measured or the extent to which government funding will be available in future for capital works.

Significant additional investment in the urban water supply and sanitation sub-sector will be essential over the strategy period. A clear policy is needed to support the investment outlining future tariff structures and the allocation of costs between water service charges and general taxation. A regulatory framework is also needed within which the undertakers are able to meet the specified financial objectives.

Low Tariffs and Collection Rates

Financial constraints to strategy implementation stem directly from limited availability of funding and, perhaps more importantly, from the arrangements by which the sub-sector is financed.

Should the present system of “ad hoc” subsidisation be allowed to continue, it is unlikely that the government’s policy objectives will be achieved.

Inefficient and Non-commercial Approach to Service Delivery

The present organisation of the sub-sector, with operational units corresponding to administrative districts and municipalities, hinders a more commercial approach and the evolution of financially self-sustaining undertakers.

WASAs in the major cities are large enough to recruit, develop and retain the professional and technical expertise needed to meet the challenges facing the sub-sector, but this is not the case in the smaller citied and towns.

The management required to achieve the strategy objectives will be significant. Establishing Project Implementation Units (PIUs) with the ability to manage major investment programmes is recommended. Ensuring scope for economies of scale is also an essential factor.


WASAs are large enough to support these, but amalgamating smaller urban centres will be required if these benefits are not to be confined to the larger cities.

The impact of the Devolution Plan on the smaller centres is as yet unknown, but it must be monitored carefully to ensure that they are not neglected in favour of the larger cities.

Inadequate Climate for Private Sector Participation

Low tariffs, an uncertain policy environment for raising tariffs and a deteriorating infrastructure combine to create a poor investment environment. The private sector can bring a more commercial orientation to the urban sub-sector thereby contributing to financial sustainability, but only if these aspects are improved.

This is not specifically a private sector related initiative. Private sector or not, the undertakers need to become commercial enterprises, so the improvement of tariffs, policy environment and the infrastructure are needed regardless.

7.4 Strategy for the Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Sub-Sector The implementation of the Strategy will require investment in a package of measures, which will include asset renewal and business improvement as well as development projects. Some policies overlap in terms of their investment needs and / or depend upon prior achievement of other objectives before they can be implemented.

Management Measures:

(i) Establish a Domestic Water Supply Coordinating and Support Body for urban water supply and sanitation to support long term planning, cooperation between urban service providers and to support the weaker smaller cities and towns.

(ii) Develop a Strategic Medium and Long-term Plan for urban water supply and sanitation, including tariff levels, improved collection methods, demand management


measures and participation by the private sector, as well as infrastructure improvement and expansion.

(iii) Promote private sector participation starting with a study of how best this can be achieved, with the necessary regulatory, fiscal and other measures.

(iv) Restructure urban water supply and sanitation financing arrangements, including tariff reform and the improvement of cost recovery.

(v) Formulate appropriate institutional arrangements for water supply and sanitation services in the smaller cities (those without WASAs) and towns in the light of the Devolution Plan.

The above strategy components would be considered and developed within the Strategic Plan.

Technical Measures:

(vi) Renew the existing operational assets to address the maintenance backlog, with specific reference to existing sewage treatment plants.

(vii) Extend existing and develop new water supply and sanitation networks to increase service coverage to the stated objectives.

(viii) Develop additional surface water and groundwater resources to meet the growth in consumption.

(ix) Construct new sewage treatment works in line with EPA effluent disposal regulations.

For the purpose of the Strategy the major cities have been treated on an individual basis whereas a more generalised approach has been used for the medium-sized and smaller urban centres.

Restoration of the existing operational assets to a serviceable condition is an essential prerequisite for extending service coverage. The only alternative is to attempt to provide a wider customer base with a low and


declining standard of service, which will not be acceptable to customers and is not effective management in any case.

Target service coverage (by 2011) has been redefined to take account of the fact that present coverage (in terms of piped connections to individual houses) has been found to be less than assumed in the TYPP. The TYPP targets imply an increase in water service coverage of 15% of total urban population by 2011. The corresponding increase in sewerage service coverage is 35%. These percentage increases have been adopted for the proposed strategy but have been applied to present estimates of coverage found during the study rather than those assumed by the TYPP.

At present there are projects, which are at a reasonably advanced stage of development; feasibility studies or PC-1s have been completed. This is the case only for the larger cities, potentially leaving the smaller cities and towns without the foundation to begin rehabilitation, improvements and extensions of service, compliance with EPA quality standards, etc. It is also the case that most of the smaller cities and towns do not have equal management abilities compared with the major centres. Smaller cities and towns will need to be targeted for capacity building to ensure that they can maintain the fairly fast pace of development that is needed in the water supply and sanitation sub-sector.

The Strategy components are presented below into Priority Programmes and Medium Term and Long Term Programmes.

7.4.2 Priority Programmes

Development of an Coordinating and Support Body for Urban Water Supply and Sanitation

Investment in the sub-sector will be significant in the coming years and will require a level and quality of management that is beyond the needs of the past. Establishing a Domestic Water Supply Coordinating and Support Body will provide support for strategic planning to all urban areas, large and small. The lack of long term planning is one of the main constraints to successful growth.


If a climate is developed which can attract the private sector to urban water supply and sanitation a regulating body would be required. The proposed Domestic Water Supply Coordinating and Support Body could restructure to become a regulating body and be ready to take on this function as the private sector becomes more involved. It is likely to take several years before a regulating body might be needed, so there is time for good capacity building.

A Strategic Medium and Long-term Plan

The Strategic Plan will be executed by the Domestic Water Supply Coordinating and Support Body and lay the foundations for achieving the objectives of the sub-sector. The Plan will include Infrastructural developments as well as plans for tariff restructuring, collection methods, the logistics of procurement, coordination with EPA on water quality and wastewater disposal regulations, improving management and attracting the private sector, among others. It also will include a plan to ensure adequate supply of raw water to all urban systems. An allocation of funds for the Strategic Plan is included in the MTIP. It would form a suitable subject for a TA package.

Assessment of Private Sector Participation Study

A study for private sector participation specifically for the urban sub-sector will determine how to attract the private sector and define the roles it will play and the regulatory environment needed to manage and monitor it.

Re-structuring of sub-sector financing, tariff mechanisms and regulation

Restructuring of sub-sector financing and regulation creates an enabling environment for service providers to become financially self-sustaining. Determining the form of the restructuring will be a component of the Strategic Plan, but also will require government action at federal and provincial levels. Present tariffs for connected households are about 50% of the affordable limit for the urban population, based on the international funding agencies’ assessment of the affordability limit.


Renewal of Existing Operational Assets

The backlog of asset renewal through capital projects would be the main priority as far as the infrastructure is concerned. Especially in the case of sewage treatment works, where few are in operating condition, it would be senseless to build more only to have them fail as well. Future maintenance work to keep the infrastructure in a serviceable condition should be planned and implemented as an ongoing activity and adequately financed through the undertakers’ annual budgets.

7.4.3 Medium to Long Term Programmes Future Development of Water Resources

Water resources to meet future demand must be planned ahead, but their development should be scheduled to become available only when needed to meet new demand.

Extension of Networks to Increase Service Coverage

Extension of networks to provide increased service coverage would only take place following completion of the priority programme. Extension of networks should only take place where the capital expenditure can be justified by a commitment to take up and pay for services.

Water distribution networks should not, as a matter of policy, be provided unless piped sewerage is also laid and connected to the properties served.

Compliance With EPA Standards

Compliance with drinking water standards will depend upon improved continuity of supply and the distribution system renewal required under the priority programme. Until this has been achieved, chlorination or other forms of disinfections cannot be effective in reducing bacterial contamination.

Proposals for staged compliance with EPA standards for effluent discharge in the 24 largest cities are contained in the Draft Urban


Wastewater Treatment Master Plan (2003-23). This provides a sound basis for environmental improvement.

Similarly, policies relating to environmental compliance require the installation of sewage treatment in parallel with extension of sewerage network coverage.

There are projects included in the associated MTIP for new sewage treatment plants. Rehabilitation and a commitment to finance O&M of the existing plants should be a prerequisite to installing new infrastructure.

7.4.4 Implementation Plan Proposed target dates for the implementation of the priority and medium to long-term programmes are contained in Table 7.1 below.


Immediate and Short Term Medium Term (to 2011) Long Term (to 2025) Development of an Coordinating and Support Body for the urban sub-sector (2003-2005)

Strategic long-term planning for water and sanitation services (2003-2005) This can be carried out with development of the Coordinating and Support Body under the same TA.

Development of water resources to meet projected new demand and increased consumption (a) Groundwater (2008 – as required by strategic plan) (b) Surface water (2008 – as required by strategic plan)

Continuation of development of water resources

Re-structuring of sub-sector financing, tariff mechanism and regulation (2003–2004)

Extension of networks to increase service coverage (2008 – as required by strategic plan)

Continuation of extension of networks

Renewal of existing operational assets to address maintenance backlog Networks (2003-2008) M & E plant (2003-2006) Other civil works (2003-2008)

Compliance with drinking water quality and effluent discharge standards (a) Drinking water quality (2003-2008) (b) EPA effluent discharges (2005 – as required by strategic plan)

Continuations of programme for compliance with drinking water and effluent quality standards

Development of water resources to improve continuity of supply to existing customers Groundwater (2003-2005) Surface water (2003-2008)

Improvement of revenue recovery (2003-2006)

Table 7.1 Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Strategy Interventions


7.5 Cost Estimate

7.5.1 Method of Cost Estimation The cost estimates for the implementation of the proposed strategy have been prepared based on projections of urban populations and estimated unit costs, expressed in terms of cost per million of population served, derived from recent studies and master plans for the development of urban water supply and sanitation in Pakistan.

Price information has been adjusted to 2000/01 price levels using the GDP Deflators (1980/81=100) published by the Federal Bureau of Statistics.

For estimating purposes, unit costs were derived for the following asset categories.

• Surface water source works • Groundwater source works • Surface water treatment • Water distribution infrastructure including storage • Household metering • Sewerage infrastructure • Sewage treatment

The unit costs for some of these categories vary widely depending upon the particular circumstances of the cities and towns for which the schemes were proposed. Those used are estimates only.

Provision of sewage treatment has been assumed in accordance with the programme contained in the Master Plan for Urban Wastewater Treatment Facilities in Pakistan. This provides for primary and secondary treatment in 24 cities (representing around 54% of Pakistan’s urban population) by 2023.

Cost estimates for household metering have been included for those cities where metering on a significant scale will be practicable by 2011. Assumed meter coverage by 2011 is as follows.


• CDA – Islamabad - 100% coverage • Quetta - 50% coverage • Lahore - 100% coverage

Estimates have been included for investment needed to recover accrued backlogs of asset renewal. These are based on the estimated replacement cost of the assets and the following assumed asset lives.

Tubewells 10 years Impounding reservoirs 80 years Water mains 50 years Sewers 50 years Mechanical and electrical plant 20 years Civil works 50 years Household water meters 5 years

An average backlog of five years asset renewal has been assumed in preparing the estimates.

7.5.2 Cost Estimate Table 7.2 shows the costs for associated studies and other supporting interventions, which will be necessary to achieve the objectives. Costs in Table 7.2 are assumed.

Type of Intervention Cost (US$ million)

Development of a Coordinating and Support Body for urban water supply and sanitation

2.0

Assessment of Private Sector Involvement Study 0.5Strategic long-term planning for water and sanitation services

1.0

Re-structuring of sub-sector financing, tariff mechanisms and regulation

1.0

Improvement of revenue recovery 1.0Total 5.5

Table 7.2: Cost Summary for Supporting Interventions


The total cost estimate for developing urban water supply and sanitation up to 2025, in 2001 costs, is given in Table 7.3. As can be seen in Table 7.3, the total cost would be just over US$ 5 billion. Several scenarios were considered, but the figures presented below are for fulfilling the full objectives stated above, to be completed by 2025.

Province / Location Cost (US$ million)

CDA, Islamabad 97.0

Balochistan Quetta 129.0 Medium/Small Towns 58.0 Balochistan Total 187.0

NWFP Peshawar 333.0 Medium/Small Towns 127.0 NWFP Total 460.0

Punjab Lahore 690.0 Faisalabad 330.0 Guiranwala 96.0 Multan 165.0 Rawalpindi 177.0 Medium/Small Towns 603.0 Punjab Total 2061.0

Sindh Karachi 1907.0 Hyderabad 135.0 Medium/Small Towns 219.0 Sindh Total 2261.0

Pakistan Total 5066.0

Table 7.3: Cost Summary for Urban Water Supply and Sanitation

Concern has been raised over the large cost of the overall strategy as proposed. The costing has been carried out on the principle that the full objectives will be met. However, it is recognised that there may be insufficient funds to carry out the work. However, for urban water supply and sanitation, achieving a level of full cost recovery will mean that there


will no longer be recurrent costs which must be supported by government. Placing financial sustainability as a priority in this sub-sector will result, in the long run, in a saving of government reserves.


8 RURAL WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION


8.1.1 Water Supply Access to good drinking water and sanitation facilities is growing but still somewhat behind. By 2000, 53% of the population had access to rural water supply facilities for safe drinking water, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan (2001), where access is defined as including piped water supply, supply drawn manually from dug wells and from hand pumps. Water supply is obtained through deep tube wells, shallow dug wells or by filtration of raw water from irrigation canals, except in hill areas, where water is obtained from springs or infiltration galleries under natural streams or karezes. Supply sources are estimated to be 70% from ground water and 30% from surface waters.

The present water demand for rural water supply is estimated at 0.81 MAF per year, which is 15.7% of the total domestic and industrial demand combined.

At present the rural population is 92.4 million out of the total 141 million, or 65.5%. With the ongoing migration of population from rural to urban areas, it is anticipated that the rural population share will decrease to 58.6% by 2011 and to 48.2% by 2025.

Rural water supply currently uses 0.8 MAF, which is projected to increase to 1.5 MAF by 2011 and 2.9 MAF by 2025. Given the top priority of domestic water supply, this volume will have to be found either through developing additional storage or by taking it from current irrigation uses.


8.1.2 Sanitation In 2000 the coverage of access to sanitation facilities was estimated at 27% of the population. That this is a lower figure than for water supply is illustrative of the lower importance that has been accorded to sanitation in the development of rural water supply and sanitation projects.

Where there are installed drains, they are generally open surface drains, which actually create environmental problems because they are not self-cleaning and no one is responsible for cleaning. Solid waste disposal into drains adds to the problem.

Disposal of drainage water is poorly managed. In most areas drainage effluent is used as a combined fertiliser and irrigation supplement. But during the monsoon, when less water is required, the wastewater is disposed of without treatment to nearby streams or into a village pond.

8.1.3 Water Quality Water quality is inadequate both at source and at household delivery. Source water quality is deteriorating because of poor environmental conditions and contamination of groundwater or using low quality canal water. Water quality within piped systems is generally poor because of the practice of depressurisation of the mains and the poor condition of the distribution network.

Monitoring of water quality is very limited. There are very few laboratories for testing water and those that have been set up by water supply agencies do not work efficiently and laboratory records are poorly kept an unreliable. This is mainly a problem of inadequate funding for staff and equipment. Monitoring water quality requires a higher profile to develop a more systematic and reliable system. This would most appropriately be set up through a provincial authority like the Department of Health.

Despite the lack of information, water quality for rural water supplies is becoming an issue because the communities themselves are raising the concern.

A concern was raised over arsenic in rural water supplies. As in Bangladesh, where the problem is severe, UNICEF had provided hand


pumps in rural areas of Pakistan. Once the problem arose in Bangladesh, UNICEF began a testing programme in Pakistan. Out of 300 water samples taken only six tested positive for arsenic and, even with those, there are reservations about the quality of testing. No clinical study has yet been undertaken to determine if there is arsenic poisoning in the population. The conclusion by water quality experts in Pakistan is that arsenic is not a significant problem. However, UNICEF continues to monitor the situation and is making field kits for testing available in all four provinces.

8.1.4 Provincial Responsibilities Rural water supply is a provincial responsibility and the various provincial departments involved in water supply draw on the provincial Annual Development Programmes for funding rural water supply. All capital investment has been provided by the provincial government, as have costs of operation, asset depreciation and infrastructure renewal. Some costs for operation and maintenance are collected from the beneficiaries, but there are usually shortfalls, which are covered by the province. This situation is changing now, partly as a result of new thinking in rural infrastructure development and also as a result of the Devolution Plan (see Section 8.1.6), which alters the means and procedures of financing, implementing and operating rural water supply.

8.1.5 Community Involvement in Rural Water Supply and Sanitation In recent years attempts have been made to turn over the management of water supply and sanitation schemes to the community, post construction. This has met with limited success because water user committees (WUC) or community-based organisations (CBO) were not involved in planning and design of their systems and did not develop the sense of ownership needed for community management. More recently this has been changing, mainly because of the model introduced under the ADB funded Punjab Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project. This model still requires greater dissemination, however, as there are parallel projects which continue to put a somewhat lower emphasis on community participation in the crucial early stages of planning, design and development.

There are other problems. CBOs are often made up of one particular village group, which excludes other members of the society. To function


effectively CBOs need to be heterogeneous with representation from all parts of the community. The participation of women should be especially encouraged and actively promoted.

The rural population also generally has a low literacy rate and is not very knowledgeable of the health implications of low water quality and poor sanitation. Public awareness of health issues and sanitation is necessary.

8.1.6 Impact of the Devolution Plan The Devolution Plan (Local Government Ordinance 2001), implemented in August, 2001, brings a new system of local government with authority devolving to the lowest level. The objective is to improve participation of the people in identifying and managing their needs, as well as contribute more directly to financing some of their service requirements. The ordinance encourages mobilisation of local resources for implementation of projects. It provides authority to all councils to oversee the delivery of services by the government departments in their respective jurisdictions. It envisages bringing about the participation of people at the grassroots level in planning, development and management efforts, which includes water supply and sanitation services.

The district government is now empowered to perform the majority of formerly provincial government tasks including planning, approval and execution of development projects and to levy taxes. The new ordinance decentralises financial authority for management of 30 government departments to the district level. Several government departments have been grouped together and there are a total of nine office groups in the district, each of these is headed by an Executive District Officer.

Administrative and financial management of local government and rural development departments, the public health engineering department and housing and physical planning departments have been entrusted to the tehsil municipal administration.

Control of the development authorities, water and sanitation agencies or boards and solid waste management bodies has been transferred to the City District Governments. The City District Government is provided by the ordinance for the four provincial capitals only. Similarly, the control of


Water and Sanitation Agencies/ Boards and solid waste management bodies has been vested in the concerned district government for villages and smaller cities and towns.

Some difficulties have arisen during the transition; with gaps appearing in services in the process of transfer (such as the loss of the PHED in NWFP prior to the District Councils taking up their work) but the general opinion is that this will be an improvement in rural development and management.

8.1.7 Financial Considerations Until recently provincial governments had been subsidising all development and operation and maintenance of rural water supply and sanitation schemes. This has been changing in recent years through programmes, which transfer ownership of the scheme to communities after construction. These still represent a relatively small proportion of the total and O&M costs are still primarily government supported.

Where water supply and sanitation schemes remain the responsibility of the provincial authorities rural water supply consumers pay monthly tariffs to the water supply authority if there are household connections (but generally not if they carry water from public standpipes).

Support costs are significant. Especially for schemes with a low population base, per connection costs are high. In Balochistan, for example, monthly tariffs have been fixed at Rs.50, where the costs are Rs 150-200. In Sindh, electricity charges and non-routine charges for maintenance, which are typically 60-70% of total O&M costs, are paid by Provincial Government. Low tariffs are a hindrance to sustainable operation of completed rural water supply schemes.

The tariff is subject to the approval of the Chief Minister / presently governor, who is usually reluctant to increase them. As tariffs have not risen in line with costs, full O&M cost recovery is rare. To reduce some of these costs and to promote self-supporting operation and maintenance, all water supply schemes now under construction are based on house connections.


Where water supply and sanitation schemes have been turned over to CBOs after construction it becomes their responsibility to collect tariffs from the consumers. This has proved difficult in many cases because there is no means of enforcing payment and disconnection for non-payment is generally not possible. Full cost recovery by the CBO is rare and ultimately results in the failure of the scheme. Capacity building and training of the CBOs is needed in determining appropriate tariffs and collecting and managing them, as well as technical assistance for operation of the scheme.

It is considered that community participation in all phases of development and operation will improve sustainability of rural water supply schemes, and this must be supported by the provincial and district authorities. It is anticipated that the Devolution Plan will have a positive impact on increasing and strengthening community participation.

8.1.8 Recent Investments There have been several rural development programmes in recent years, many concentrating on rural water supply and sanitation. These are described by province:

Punjab

Under the Punjab Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project, ADB is assisting the government of Punjab to finance water supply and sanitation works in rural areas under a US$ 46 million loan. The project is constructing 342 new rural water supply schemes in seven districts of Gujrat, Rawalpindi, Attock, Chakwal, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar and Rahim Yar Khan. Work on Phase I is scheduled for completion in May 2002 and a second phase is being discussed. One area of discussion is a plan to increase beneficiary ownership by including a beneficiary contribution to the capital cost of 15%.

The government of Punjab is also involved in spending a further Rs.1,015 million (US$ 16.92 million) for an additional 995 villages for water supply and open surface drainage during 2001-2002.


North West Frontier Province

The government of NWFP has committed Rs. 766 million (US$ 12.77 million) to developing 310 rural water supply and drainage schemes during 2001-2002.

Sindh

Sindh Province, under an IDA programme, is developing 185 rural water supply schemes as well as 69 drainage / sanitation schemes and rehabilitation of 238 water supply and drainage schemes. Water supply based on hand pumps is also being provided at 2564 locations under this programme. The government of Sindh has also committed Rs. 385 million (US$ 6.42 million) for provision of rural water supply and drainage schemes during the year 2001-2002.

Balochistan

In Balochistan the province spent Rs. 211million (US$ 3.51 million) in 1999-2000 for rehabilitation of 143 rural schemes. Rs. 223 million (US$ 3.72 million) was also invested on construction of a dam for Gawadar and Naukandi water supply and 150 rural water supply schemes under an IDA programme. Rural water supply schemes in two rural townships were completed. A further 18 rural water supply schemes were renovated, upgraded or extended and 3 drainage schemes were also completed under this IDA assistance.

Unicef also assisted Balochistan on a 50:50 share basis with the government totalling US$ 34.20 million to construct 21 rural water supply schemes. Unicef provided material in the form of pipes and fittings and construction was done by PHED.

An investment of Rs. 2,835 million (US$ 47.25 million) was also made in the rural water supply sector during 2000–01 and Rs. 687 million (US$ 11.45 million) is committed for 2001-02 according to the annual development programme. Apparently, the government of Balochistan has now put a moratorium on construction of new rural water supply schemes.


8.2 Objectives The main objectives for the rural water supply and sanitation sub-sector of the National Water Sector Strategy are:

(i) Increase coverage of rural water supply to 75% of the population;

(ii) Increase coverage of rural sanitation 50%; (iii) Ensure that involvement of women in water supply and

sanitation decision making; (iv) Improve drinking water quality to achieve full compliance

with EPA standards for drinking water; (v) Ensure that rural water supply and sanitation services are

financially self-sustaining; (vi) Develop a comprehensive water quality monitoring and

information system; (vii) Raise public awareness of the need for satisfactory

standards of hygiene and sanitation.

These objectives are based on those of the Ten Year Perspective Plan, which has the same main objectives, but has a target date of 2011. During the WRSS study it was concluded that such a target is overly ambitious in this time scale. Indeed, achieving the same with a target date of 2025 will be difficult enough because of financial constraints. However, domestic water supply and sanitation (both urban and rural) are given top priority in both the TYPP (though it is given limited funding in the investment component) as well as in the National Water Policy (draft). It is therefore anticipated that emphasis will be placed on domestic water where there is competition for funds with other sub-sectors.

Financial sustainability is a key target of this strategy for all sub-sectors because of the massive drain on government reserves from the support of recurrent costs of water related infrastructure. Rural communities tend to be poorer and government support will be needed for developing water supply and sanitation schemes. But post construction such schemes should be self-supporting and this will be accomplished through effective establishment and training of CBOs.


Water quality is a primary concern for rural water supplies and needs to be emphasised as a health issue. Public awareness for public health as it relates to water supply and sanitation will involve the communities in their own public health improvement.

8.3 Constraints The primary constraints to the continued development of the rural water supply and sanitation sub-sector are:

(i) Poor and deteriorating water quality at source and within systems;

(ii) Variable history of successful community involvement; (iii) Changing administration under the Devolution Plan, and

uncertainty in technical ability during the transition, especially in the domestic water supply and sanitation sub-sectors;

Poor Water Quality

Water quality is poor both at source and at house delivery and its profile as a serious public health issue must be raised. Delivering poor quality water to households is contrary to the goals of this Strategy or any other rural water supply programme. Involvement of communities in water quality monitoring and management is paramount in ensuring they have the knowledge to contribute to their own solutions.

Variable History of Community Involvement

Further work is needed to enable and strengthen water user committees (WUC) or community based organisations (CBO) to achieve a successful transition to community-based management of water supply and sanitation. Prior attempts have often met with the return of the scheme to the province for O&M support or the abandonment of the scheme entirely. The model introduced under the Punjab Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project appears to be the most appropriate and successful, but requires greater dissemination. The active promotion of the participation of women must be a component of CBO establishment


for future projects. Public awareness of health issues and sanitation is essential and the largely illiterate rural population needs to be targeted.

Changing Administration under the Devolution Plan

While there is optimism that the Devolution Plan will be beneficial to community involvement in rural water supply and sanitation schemes and programmes, there remains uncertainty as to how effective it will be, especially in providing the technical support to mange schemes. It is already apparent that some District and City District Councils are stronger than others in this respect. This will need to be monitored to ensure that villages and small towns are not left out if they are in a weaker district. This is also a public awareness issue because a well-informed rural population is able to drive the councils to obtain the necessary technical and administrative skills.

Other Considerations

Electric connections provided by WAPDA are needed for the pumping machinery and installation is often delayed. There are cases in all provinces of delays of as much as 5-7 years. Similar delays occur in gaining approval from the irrigation authorities for abstracting raw water from canals.

Many water supply schemes are constructed without sanitation arrangements with the result that wastewater disposal is not managed. Sanitation systems should be constructed with all new water supply schemes.

8.4 Strategy for the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sub-Sector

8.4.1 Overall Strategy Domestic water supply and sanitation, which includes both the rural and urban environments, should be a priority for this strategy period. These sub-sectors have been somewhat neglected and, mainly for health and social reasons, must be upgraded as well as expanded to meet the growing population. Initially there will need to be continued government support, in light of the socio-economic conditions of the rural areas.


The strategy for the rural sub-sector combines technical and management measures. Success will depend on achieving a high degree of community participation at all stages of scheme development.

As previously stated, the Strategy is targeted at increasing access to water supply to 75% of the population and to sanitation to 50% of the population (see Table 8.1 for provincial interventions).

The Strategy is to:

(i) Commit to the adoption of the method developed by the Punjab Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project, which places a high degree of emphasis on community involvement at all stages and the establishment, capacity building and support of CBOs.

(ii) Develop and implement a training programme for the administration and management of rural water supply and sanitation schemes and systems, for the benefit of CBOs and scheme beneficiaries.

(iii) Enhance existing legislation to grant legal authority to support CBOs in their ability to enforce collection of tariffs.

(iv) All schemes will be combined piped water supply and sanitation to allow the coverage of sanitation to begin to catch up with water supply.

(v) The strategy will likely be implemented through a series of projects, which should be managed provincially. They should follow the method developed in the Punjab Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project. Each province will require a PMU, as well as one to administer the programme for AJK, FATA, FANA and CDA areas.

(vi) A Project Preparation TA (Technical Assistance) should initiate the preparation of the projects to detail and cost each provincial project.

(vii) Implement Public Awareness Programmes to inform the public of the programme so that they know to apply for a scheme in their village. It should also include awareness raising on health and water quality issues. These should


be integral components of all future rural water supply and sanitation projects.

(viii) Rehabilitate existing schemes where necessary as part of the overall project, including those which have not yet been connected to power.

(ix) Establish water quality testing laboratories at Zone level in each province and for federal areas.

It will be the case that the province will continue to maintain existing schemes until such time as all village water and sanitation systems become run by the communities. This is likely to take many years, possibly as long as the Strategy period. This will result in very different systems operating, possibly in neighbouring communities.

Existing rural water supply schemes, which are operated by the province should be included in the programme and rehabilitated by the province on the condition of turnover to the CBO.

Existing rural water supply schemes, which have not yet been connected to power should receive power on a priority basis, with costs carried by the provincial government.

O&M of full sewerage systems are technically difficult and, combined with low literacy rates, open surface drains should be an option at the discretion of the CBO. CBOs need to be aware of the differences in hygiene aspects, costs and operation and maintenance requirements.

8.4.2 Implementation Plan There is significant variation between provinces in their current coverage of rural water supply and sanitation facilities, with a resulting difference in the specific interventions among the provinces. The additional work to be carried out during the strategy period, in terms of percentage of coverage, is given in Table 8.1. A mid point objective of 2011 is also provided in the table as a target for the MTIP.

Less is known at this stage regarding coverage of sanitation, but it is known to be low. For purposes of estimating the extent of the programme, it is assumed to be zero. As it is proposed that all new


schemes combine water supply and sanitation, the objective for sanitation for 2011 is the difference between the present coverage of water supply and the water supply objective for 2011.

The objectives for the federally administered areas (FATA, FANA, CDA and AJK) are higher for 2011 because they are small, low population areas and so a higher objective is achievable.

Province Current Water Supply

Coverage (2000)

Water Supply

Objective(2011)

Sanitation Objective

(2011)

Water Supply

Objective (2025)

Sanitation Objective

(2025)

Punjab 27% 40% 13% 75% 50% Sindh 10% 40% 30% 75% 50% NWFP 45% 65% 20% 75% 50% Balochistan 55% 65% 10% 75% 50% FATA 63% 75% 12% 75% 50% FANA 16% 75% 50% 75% 50% CDA 55% 100% 20% 100% 50% AJK 32% 75% 43% 75% 50%

Table 8.1: Additional Coverage Required for Rural Water Supply and Sanitation (% of population served)

8.4.3 Supporting Programmes Public Awareness Programmes – one for each province plus the federal areas, based on an assumed total cost of US$ 2 million, and distributed among the provinces according to population served during the MTIP period.

• Punjab - million US$ 0.94 • Sindh - million US$ 0.12 • NWFP - million US$ 0.48 • Balochistan - million US$ 0.25 • Federal - million US$ 0.21


Establishment of Water Quality Laboratories – It is proposed that water quality testing labs should be set up at Zone level in each province. Some staff is already available from PHED, but further recruitment and training will be required. Equipment will also have to be purchased and buildings procured. This will require a study to determine the details of the facilities. The cost of this programme is assumed to be US$ 2 million for each province, plus for the federal areas, for a total of US$ 10 million.

Training of PMU Staff and CBOs – Training PMU staff and CBO personnel to work in the communities to establish CBOs and train them in management of water supply and sanitation systems is proposed. The proposed Training Programme primarily focuses on the development of project staff and CBO office bearers and staff. However, the Training Programme will also be used for the development of PMU staff to achieve the overall capacity building, so that it can perform its changed future role effectively. The objectives of the training programme would be:

• Orient to PMU staff for an enabling role in support of rural water supply and sanitation service delivery;

• Strengthen PMU and its newly established Community Development Unit (CDU) in project and financial management, management information systems, monitoring and evaluation, construction management, engineering design and training skills;

• Train master trainers, enabling them to further impart training to engineering staff, CDU staff and CBO office bearers; and

• Build capacity of CBOs to enable them to perform their effective role in planning, implementation, operation and maintenance of community based rural water supply and sanitation schemes.

The cost for the Training Programme is estimated at US$ 3 million.

Proposed target dates for the implementation of the priority and medium to long-term programmes are contained in Table 8.2 below.


Immediate and Short Term Medium Term (to 2011) Long Term (to 2025) Project Preparation TA (2002-2003)

Establish PMUs in each province (2003) Training of PMU staff and CBO personnel (2003)

Develop and execute public awareness campaigns in each province to inform communities about the programme and their options and responsibilities within it (2003-2004)

Establish water quality testing laboratories (2003-2008)

Assist communities to form CBOs (2003-2011)

Carry out rehabilitation programme for existing schemes (2003-2011)

Phase I of development of new schemes (2003-2011)

Phase II of development of new schemes (2012-2025)

Table 8.2 Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Strategy Interventions


8.5 Cost Estimate Costs for new schemes vary from province to province based on availability of good quality water. In the hill areas of NWFP, for example, there are springs and streams with better quality water than in southern Punjab. Hence the costs, on a per capita basis will vary as: Punjab, Rs. 2500, Sindh, Rs. 2400, NWFP Rs. 1600 and Balochistan, Rs. 1800.

Table 8.3 provides a cost estimate of the proposed rural water supply and sanitation programme. Costs are also shown separately for rehabilitation of existing schemes in each of the provinces. Per capita cost is constant among the provinces for rehabilitation, estimated at Rs.408. No recurrent costs are included as these are to be carried by the CBOs. Costs are also included for special support programmes proposed for the MTIP period.

Concern has been raised among the stakeholders of this study that there will be insufficient funding available to achieve the whole of the objectives of the strategy. This is a valid concern.

The total cost for rural water supply and sanitation is estimated at US$ 2,173 million during the 22 years leading up to 2025 (see Section 8.5). While this is a significant amount of money, domestic water supplies have been given a high priority in the Draft National Water Policy and the Ten Year Perspective Plan. This Strategy also recommends a prioritisation of domestic water supply and sanitation. It would therefore be recommended that this priority remain. There is no reasonable option to not achieve the objectives and, if funding becomes problematic, extending the end date is the only alternative.

For rural water supply and sanitation, implementation an effective programme based on community participation as described in this Section will result in community operation of the systems once constructed. This will potentially result in a cost reduction to the government in recurrent expenses in the long run.


Total Population Served

(million)

New Scheme Cost (million US$)

Rehabilitation Cost (million US$)

Total Cost (million US$)

Province / Area

2011 2025 2011 2025 2011 2025 2011 2025

Punjab 9.07 30.34 378 1264 75 75 439 1339NWFP 4.60 7.18 123 191 24 24 147 215Sindh 5.39 12.84 216 514 9 9 225 523

Balochistan 0.74 1.44 22 43 14 14 36 57FATA 0.49 0.87 5 10 0.42 0.42 5.4 10.4FANA 0.50 0.50 5 5 0.10 0.10 5.1 5.1

CDA 0.16 0.16 0.5 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.5 0.5AJK 1.00 1.00 6.7 6.7 1.1 1.1 7.8 7.8

Total 21.95 54.33 756 2034 124 124 880 2157

Table 8.3: Cost Estimate for the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Strategy

Plus Supporting Programmes: Project Preparation TA – US$ 1 million Public Awareness Programmes - US$ 2 million Establishment of Water Quality Laboratories - US$ 10 million Training of PMU Staff and CBOs - US$ 3 million

Total Estimated Cost - US$ 2173 million


9 INDUSTRIAL WATER SUPPLY AND POLLUTION CONTROL


9.1.1 Water Supply Current water supplies to industry are estimated at 1.18 MAF (1.45 BCM), representing about 1% of total water demand in Pakistan. Supplies are largely derived from privately owned tubewells, although a number of major industrial users in Sindh (for example, Pakistan Steel), have direct access to fresh surface water sources. Only about 2% of water used by industry is estimated to be provided by municipal water undertakings. Since there is currently no effective government licensing or regulation of groundwater abstraction, total estimated use of water by industry is subject to considerable uncertainty.

9.1.2 Treatment and Disposal of Wastewater Most industrial effluent is discharged untreated to natural watercourses, or through municipal sewerage systems. There are EPA regulations on wastewater disposal, which dictate the quality of water allowed to be discharged into rivers and other surface water bodies. Essentially, these call for on-site wastewater treatment developed and paid for by the industries themselves. There is no enforcement of these regulations, however, so effective control over the discharge of trade effluents, either direct to rivers or through public sewers within municipal systems, is lacking. The EPA has stated that there is general acceptance and agreement by the industrial sector that they should be treating their own wastes and disposing of them in an environmentally sound manner, but that they need financial assistance to install the necessary facilities, probably through a combination of fiscal incentives and soft loans.

Municipal wastewater is also discharged into surface water bodies untreated. It is estimated that only 1% of the total municipal wastewater generated is treated before disposal. It would politically difficult to force industries to practice environmentally sound disposal while municipalities, which generate several times the industrial load, are not.


A more practical and acceptable approach would be to develop a programme of wastewater treatment that targets municipalities and industries simultaneously.

There is a shortage of information as to the severity of the industrial pollution problem in the country as a whole and a lack of an overall plan to combat it. A detailed study is therefore needed in order to prepare a National Industrial Pollution Control Plan, covering likely future pollution control requirements as well as the general clean up of existing industries

9.1.3 Financial Considerations Since most industrial water supplies come from privately developed sources, there is no direct cost to government. There are, however, significant costs in terms of the social and environmental impacts of effluent discharges. At present there is no major programme of Government funding or financial incentives for industries to install pollution control.

9.1.4 Future Industrial Water Requirements Industrial demand for water may be expected to increase over the periods covered both by the Strategy and the MTIP. The Statistical Survey of Pakistan indicates that GDP growth generated by the major water-consuming sectors of industry has increased at an average rate of 2.9% over the past decade. Assuming this growth rate will be sustained, an increase in industrial demands of 33% (1.57 MAF or 1.93 BCM) is expected by 2011. By 2025, a further increase to almost 100% (2.36 MAF or 2.90 BCM) is expected.

For the future, it is important to ensure adequate supply of water for industry, so that water availability does not become a constraint to industrial growth. Industry will continue to use only a small percentage of the total national water resource, and at no cost to the public. There may be a future need to regulate abstraction, especially of groundwater, depending on the condition of aquifers from which industries are pumping. This need would be primarily a local one. Section 14.5 discusses groundwater regulation.


Wider adoption of water conservation and recycling measures should be promoted, in order to restrict the increase in industrial water consumption and to promote treatment of wastewater.

9.2 Objectives The Ten Year (2001-2011) Perspective Plan contains no specific policy objectives. Based on the policy objectives and supporting Policy Statements in the Draft National Water Policy, the following have been adopted as objectives for the industrial water supply sub-sector.

(i) To ensure provision of sufficient water to industry to promote industrial and economic development.

(ii) To ensure environmentally sound disposal of all industrial wastewater through regulation, in order to reduce pollution and improve water quality.

9.3 Constraints The main constraints concern industrial pollution control rather than water supply. Public sector capability in monitoring industrial effluent discharges and enforcing the existing pollution control regulations is very limited, there is as yet insufficient public interest in curbing pollution, and many industries would at present be unable to afford the capital outlay for on-site wastewater treatment. The constraints to achieving the objectives of the Strategy are:

(i) Inadequate monitoring of industrial effluent and surface and groundwater quality

(ii) Inability to enforce existing effluent quality regulations (iii) Inability of industries to finance on-site effluent treatment

to comply with regulations

9.4 Proposed Sub-Sector Strategy The main components of the proposed strategy for industrial pollution control can be summarised as follows:


(i) enhance enforcement of the existing pollution control regulations and standards, through institutional strengthening and other measures.

(ii) develop a nation-wide awareness raising campaign to increase interest in and support for the reduction of industrial pollution. This would form part of a campaign to raise overall environmental awareness (see Section 12).

(iii) prepare a National Industrial Pollution Control Plan, covering likely future pollution control requirements as well as the clean-up of existing industries.

(iv) introduce a system of monitoring wastewater disposal and quality, as part of the strengthening of pollution control. This would need to cover municipal as well as industrial wastewater.

(v) introduce the principle that “The Polluter Pays”, with measures such as pollution charges based on the content and strength of pollution discharges. This would be a medium-term programme.

(vi) consider the provision of fiscal measures (e.g. tax breaks, low-cost loans and other financial incentives) to encourage industries to install pollution control. Finance could be provided through a special Environment Fund to be set up by GOP for this purpose.

(vii) provide technical assistance (by EPA) to industries to help them identify opportunities for modifying production processes to reduce pollution and for re-using and recycling of usable polluting substances and for implementing other means of reducing pollution.

Given the limited technical and institutional capacity for industrial pollution control currently available in Pakistan and prevailing attitudes to the problem, implementation of the strategy outlined above will take a considerable time.

With regard to the first objective of ensuring adequate water supplies to industry, little direct action will be required by Government. Generally, industries will look after themselves with regard to water supply, either by drilling their own wells or by connecting to municipal systems, the


costs of both of which will be borne by the individual industries. There are few places in Pakistan where an industry is unable to obtain water from one of these two sources.

A very different situation prevails with regard to the second objective, that of regulating the disposal and treatment of industrial wastewater. Here Government has a key role to play in setting up and implementing a comprehensive pollution control programme. Although EPA effluent standards for industry are in place, enforcement has not been effective. Industry generally accepts, in theory at least, its responsibility for treating and disposing of their own wastes according to EPA standards, but Government needs to become more pro-active in promoting the process. It will also need to provide a certain amount of financial incentives to help fund the capital investment in equipment and facilities to be made by individual industries to enable them to comply with the standards.

A proposed approach for the future control of both industrial and municipal wastewater pollution is presented in Section 12 on the Environment, as part of an overall programme to improve water quality. The aim would be to develop a flexible and enlightened pollution control system based not only on the enforcement of regulations but also on consultation, a public sector-private sector partnership and an integrated mix of different measures.

A key principle will be that of ‘The Polluter Pays’. Allied to this, however, should be a mix of fiscal incentives (e.g. tax breaks and soft loans) to existing industries to induce them to install pollution control. New industries should be required to carry out full on-site treatment and submit a treatment and disposal plan in their development applications, and to pay full costs. Changes to legislation regulating industrial development may be needed.

The industrial pollution control-related activities to be undertaken by GOP under the strategy proposed in Section 12 are essentially institutional in nature, since the installation of pollution control equipment and facilities will generally be carried out by the industries themselves. Regulation of groundwater abstraction by industry, should it become necessary, would be introduced as part of an overall GW regulation


system rather than a system for industry alone. GW regulation is discussed in Section 14.

9.5 Cost Estimate No cost breakdown has been included in the Strategy for industrial water supply because, as explained above, industries will generally make their own arrangements for water supply and will meet the costs themselves.

With respect to industrial pollution control, the main cost to government would be the fiscal incentives and soft loans to be made available to industries to help fund their installation of pollution control facilities. Initially the provision of such financial incentives would probably need to be fairly generous to encourage the rapid uptake of pollution control measures by industry, but as the need for it becomes more widely accepted the degree of incentive provided can be progressively scaled down over time. Based on similar water sector strategy planning studies recently completed for Bangladesh, an order of magnitude cost of US$ 250 million over the Strategy period has been allowed. This is just the cost to Government. There would be a considerably larger cost to industry, since it would finance the major part of the pollution control investment itself.

A sum of US$ 3 million has also been allowed for the studies for the preparation of the proposed National Pollution Control Action Plan.

9.6 Strategy Implementation The proposed programme for the implementation of the industrial pollution control strategy is included in the overall Environmental Strategy programme presented in Section 12, since it is an integral part of it. Table 9.1 indicates the industrial component.


Immediate and Short Term Medium Term (to 2011) Long Term (to 2025)

Assess the need for financial incentives to industries to comply with EPA effluent disposal regulations

Determine legislative needs for: regulation of industrial development, enforcement of standards, water abstraction licensing

Enactment of new legislation for industrial effluent control, where necessary

Undertake a feasibility study to develop a comprehensive water quality monitoring programme in cooperation with EPA and WASAs

Develop water quality monitoring programme in cooperation with EPA and WASAs

Implement the water quality monitoring programme

Continue and improve monitoring programme

Develop a nation-wide awareness raising campaign to increase interest in and support for the reduction of industrial pollution

Execute public awareness campaign

Prepare a National Industrial Pollution Control Plan

Execute the National Industrial Pollution Control Plan

Monitor and evaluate the National Industrial Pollution Control Plan

As part of the Plan, develop a private-public partnership approach to pollution control

Table 9.1 Industrial Water Supply Strategy Interventions


10 IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE


10.1.1 Water Use for Irrigation Irrigated agriculture in Pakistan is the largest water user. The amount of surface water used is currently estimated to be 103.84 MAF (128.10 BCM) on average. Of this, 66.83 MAF (82.44 BCM) are diverted during the Kharif (summer- April to September) period, while 37.01 MAF (45.66 BCM) are diverted during the Rabi (winter- October to March) period. This quantity of water is used to irrigate an area of 44.5 million acres (MA) (18 million hectares (Mha)). The area commanded by the public irrigation infrastructure is over 36 million acres (14.6 million hectares).

A further 41.6 MAF (51.3 BCM) is pumped annually from groundwater, most of which is used for irrigation. Table 10.1 shows the surface and groundwater use for irrigation by province.

Province Kharif Rabi Total

Surface Water (MAF)

Punjab 33.73 19.65 53.38 Sindh 30.78 15.88 46.66 Balochistan & NWFP 2.31 1.48 3.79 Total Surface Water 66.82 37.01 103.83

Groundwater 1(MAF)

Punjab 34 Sindh 5 Balochistan 0.5 NWFP 2.1 Total Groundwater 41.6

Table 10.1: Water use for Irrigation by Provinces 1 Also includes municipal water use


Rod-Kohi (flood irrigation) is practiced in areas that receive water from the hill torrents in D.G Khan and D.I Khan regions. D.G Khan hill torrents have an average water conservation potential of 0.85 MAF (1.05 BCM) while D.I Khan Hill torrents have a potential of 0.80 MAF (0.99 BCM). This could be used on a total area of culturable wasteland of 0.86 Ma (0.35 Mha) in D.G Khan and 1.03 Ma (0.42 Mha) in D.I Khan. Small dams, recharge-dams and delay action dams have also been constructed on a number of small streams for local uses. The excess flow from these hill torrents flows into the Indus River.

Of Pakistan’s total irrigable area of 64.5 MA (26.1 Mha) in 1999-2000, a total area of about 44.5 MA (18 Mha) was irrigated. Some 35 MA (14.2 Mha) was irrigated by publicly owned canals and tubewells, with the remainder irrigated by private canals and tubewells, wells, karezes, etc. There is a potential of irrigating a total of about 20 MA (8 Mha) more culturable waste land in the country.

10.1.2 Indus Basin Irrigation System The Indus Basin Irrigation System comprises 3 major reservoirs, 16 barrages, 2 head-works, 2 siphons across major rivers, 12 inter river link canals (all in Punjab), 44 canal systems (23 in Punjab, 14 in Sindh, 5 in NWFP and 2 in Balochistan) and more than 107,000 water courses (Figure 10.1). The aggregate length of the canals is about 34,834 miles (56,073 Km). In addition, the watercourses, farm channels and field ditches cover another 1 million miles (1.6 million Km). Typical watercourse commands range between 200 and 800 acres (80 to 320 ha). Also, there are over 200 civil canals in NWFP, which irrigate about 0.82 Ma (0.33 Mha) and are managed by local tribal population.

The publicly owned canal systems have deteriorated due to inadequate funding for O&M activities. Further, it has become increasingly difficult to effectively operate the canal systems due to several technical, institutional and social factors, resulting in low reliability and inequity in distribution of irrigation supplies. The water supply for irrigation is also depleting due to sedimentation of the storage reservoirs. The problem has been further aggravated by the drought conditions over the last four years, which has caused significant shortages (though, interestingly, little reduction in crop production). Despite the overall shortages, the overuse of water in irrigation is a major problem in Pakistan.


In order to improve the management aspects of the irrigation sub-sector the provincial governments have passed legislations to convert irrigation departments into financially self-sustaining autonomous Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authorities (PIDAs). Under the PIDAs the O&M of the canal systems is to be entrusted to self-accounting Area Water Boards (AWBs), which would hand over O&M of the distributaries and minor canals to the Farmers Organizations (FOs). However the process of implementing these reforms is very slow. In fact, these reforms have yet to properly make a start, except in Sindh where one AWB has been established and another two AWBs are being established shortly and management is being transferred to FOs.

10.1.3 Drainage for Agriculture A rapid expansion of irrigated agriculture on the Indus Plain resulted in a progressive rise in the groundwater table and salt build-up from overuse of irrigation water, as well as being mobilized through drainage. At present about 40% of the irrigated lands are waterlogged, with a water table depth less than 10 feet (3.1 m), while around 9% of the cultivable land is badly waterlogged, with a water table depth less than 5 feet (1.5 m). Out of this 40% waterlogged area 22.8% is in Sindh Province, 15.3% is in Punjab Province, 0.9% in NWF Province and 1% in Balochistan Province. About 2.5 million acres (1 million ha) of irrigated land is affected by severe salinity.

Surface drains serve part of the irrigation systems. However, the flat topography of irrigated areas in Pakistan, lack of sufficient natural drainage and continuous seepage from canals are amongst the major contributing factors of surface and sub-surface drainage problems. This has caused damage to fertile lands through waterlogging and salinity.

In order to address the problem, starting in the late 1950s, Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects (SCARPS) were implemented wherein large deep tubewells were installed for control of the groundwater table. Some 13,500 tubewells were installed to lower the groundwater table. Of these, some 9,800 tubewells are in the Punjab with the remainder in Sindh. The groundwater pumped from tubewells in fresh groundwater areas is discharged into watercourses and used for supplementing the irrigation supplies. The water from the saline tubewells is generally put into drains or, where that is not possible, it is discharged into the large


canals for use in irrigation after mixing with the canal water. In some projects the drainage water has been disposed of into evaporation ponds, which has caused other environmental problems.

The performance of SCARP tubewells deteriorated with time, mainly due to increased cost of electricity, which made their operation costs very high. Since then a number of projects have been undertaken wherein the public deep tubewells in fresh groundwater zone are phased out either by a number of privately owned and operated community tubewells or the large tubewells and their O&M is transferred to community groups.

At present only about 27% of the average annual salt inflow of 33 Mt of salts brought in by the Indus and its tributaries are washed out of the system. Of the incoming salts about 24 Mt are retained in the Indus Basin, with 13.6 Mt. in Punjab and 10.4 Mt. in Sindh. These figures do not include salt mobilization by the large number of fresh groundwater tubewells, which are directly dumping the salts onto soils. The Drainage Sector Environmental Assessment Study (DSEA) estimated that about 24.7 Mt. of salts are mobilized in Punjab by fresh groundwater tubewells and another 3.5 Mt. of salts are mobilized by tubewells in Sindh, annually. This continuous addition of salts to agricultural soils has affected not only the socio-economic condition of the farmers but also created an unhealthy environment.

The Indus River and its tributaries are the only natural drainage outlets to the sea and also the major source of irrigation water supply. The capacity of the river system to accept saline drainage effluent is therefore limited and depends upon the water quality standards adopted both for irrigation and other uses. The Left Bank Outfall Drain (LBOD) takes the drainage water from the areas on the left bank of the Indus River in Sindh. Construction of the Right Bank Outfall Drain (RBOD) is currently in progress to take the drainage water from the area on the right bank of Indus River in Sindh to the sea, which commenced in August 2001 under the Vision 2025 Programme.

Economical disposal arrangements of saline effluent to the sea are possible if the drainage system is designed and regulated in the same way as the canal system. The Drainage Sector Environmental Study


(DSEA) estimated the ultimate drainage requirements of saline effluent at 10.91 MAF (13.5 BCM), including 2.95 MAF (3.63 BCM) from Punjab and 7.96 MAF (9.82 BCM) from Sindh and Balochistan. The drainage requirements in Sindh are high due to the extent of saline groundwater as well as relatively high water allowances for the crops grown, particularly rice. Rationalizing the water allowance and reducing seepage from the irrigation canals and watercourses in saline areas may reduce the drainage requirements.

Studies for the disposal of saline drainage effluent, including the pre-feasibility study for the National Surface Drainage System (NSDS) and the Study for Disposal of Drainage Effluent from Balochistan, have started recently under the NDP to examine the possibility of disposal of the saline effluent and help to evolve a consensus on the evacuation of drainage effluent to the sea. On conclusion of these studies more firm estimates of drainage quantities and its mode of disposal will become available.

At present there are some 190 publicly owned surface drainage systems having a total length of over 12,800 km , which drain a total of about 21.6 MA (8.77 Mha) and serve about 2.32 million farmers. Additionally, there are 8 subsurface drainage systems, which serve 0.52 MA (0.21 Mha).

The issues related to agricultural drainage are as follows;

(i) there is widespread waterlogging and salinity which has adversely affected 40% of the irrigated land;

(ii) the disposal of saline effluent is environmentally unsatisfactory with the result that water quality in receiving water bodies is deteriorating;

(iii) existing drainage infrastructure (both surface and sub-surface) is inadequate for addressing the drainage problems satisfactorily;

(iv) similar to the publicly owned canals systems, the existing drainage systems have deteriorated due to inadequate funding for O&M activities; and

(v) there is no institutional arrangement for carrying out regular quantitative and qualitative monitoring of


agricultural surface drainage effluent in Pakistan. As such this important activity is not carried out in any of the provinces.

10.1.4 Financial Considerations Irrigation and drainage for agriculture is provided as a public service, the cost of which is subsidised from Federal and Provincial budgets. Until now, the maintenance of the irrigation systems up to the outlet has been the responsibility of the Provincial Irrigation Departments for which funds are allocated from the provincial budgets. The beneficiaries pay a fee called ‘Abiana’, which is crop specific and is not reflective of the operation and maintenance costs. There is no separate charge levied for the drainage service where it is provided except for a drainage cess in some areas. In addition, the collection levels on average have been around 50 to 60% of the assessed levels. Recoveries from the beneficiaries of the irrigation service are insufficient to meet the normal O&M expenses.

It is also significant that the revenues collected through abiana go directly to the Provincial Finance Departments and not to the Irrigation Departments or PIDAs. There is no connection between abiana, which is essentially an irrigation service fee, and funding for O&M in the irrigation systems.

Prior to the 1970s, and in some areas into the 1980s, irrigation and drainage systems in Pakistan were financially self sufficient and, in fact, were profit making endeavours.

Since the 1970s, especially with the heavy subsidy on pubic groundwater pumping for drainage, the situation changed to such an extent that the irrigation departments were starved for O&M funds. This led to the deterioration of the irrigation systems to such an extent that a massive programme of canal rehabilitation had to be started from 1988. The lack of recovery of O&M costs continues and returning to at least a self-sufficient state, if not a profit making one, does not require a change in philosophy.


The provinces, conscious of the need for improving the performance of the Irrigation Departments, have passed legislation whereby the Irrigation Departments would be converted into financially self sustaining autonomous Provincial Irrigation & Drainage Authorities (PIDAs). Under the PIDAs, the operation and maintenance of individual canal systems is to be entrusted to autonomous self-accounting Area Water Boards (AWBs), which would entrust the O&M of the distributaries and minor canals to Farmers Organizations (FOs).

Farmers have had the responsibility for O&M of the watercourses from the main irrigation system and the field ditches but there were technical difficulties. Government has intervened to carry out improvements through the On Farm Water Management Projects (I to III have been completed). The OFWM projects fall under the Ministry of Agriculture. Water User Associations are being promoted under this project and being registered with the Agriculture Departments. However, progress on developing Water User Association and Farmer Organisations remains slow.

At present, the operation and maintenance of the irrigation and drainage infrastructure continues to be undertaken by the Provincial Irrigation and Power Departments (PIPDs) as the aforementioned reforms have not been implemented and, in fact, the programme of reforms, except for Sindh, has stalled. The financial sustainability of the irrigation and drainage infrastructure remains in jeopardy.

The ability for farmers to support management of irrigation schemes is directly related to the price they can get for their crop. And, in turn, crop price has a major effect on yield and productivity. As illustrated in Figure 10.2 below, crop price impacts on yield because farmers will increase other inputs (fertiliser and pesticides, better seed, groundwater where there is a cost and improved technology), which increase yield, if they know they will get a good price for their crop. A greater financial return means a greater interest in reinvesting in their crop. In the longer term, with sustained crop prices, farmers become more willing to invest in the future with long term investments such as improved technology.

Crop prices will influence farmers’ ability and willingness to pay. Farmers need to be confident in their ability to earn money through investment in


their crops and they must be able to afford to improve their yields through better inputs. While this may imply subsidy through support prices, it is something that needs serious consideration for supporting the changes in irrigation management that are required.

Figure 10.2: Representation of the Relationship Between Farmer Incomes and Investment Ability

Loan conditionalities of the main international lending agencies target increased farmer participation in irrigation management and cost recovery in irrigation service delivery. The issue of farmer ability to pay is frequently raised and is one which warrants attention if such reforms are to be successfully implemented. Figure 2.2, in Section 2 shows that the

Crop Yield Technology Agricultural Inputs

Financial Return

Ability to Support I&D Management

Farmer Investments

Crop Price


trends in crop prices since 1995 and forecasts to 2015 show a significant decline in prices since 1995 and, though a rebound is forecast, it is small and a return to the 1995 price is not expected.

The drop in prices not market driven, but rather is due primarily to the high level of agricultural subsidies in Western countries. The low price certainly reduces farmers’ ability to pay, a situation which is not forecast to change in the near future. Hopes for achieving the agricultural and irrigation reforms will be hampered until some form of reconciliation of Western agricultural subsidies and imposed reforms in developing countries is achieved.

10.1.5 Equity in Water Allocation Equity in water allocation and access in irrigation is a major concern in Pakistan, as it is in many countries with large scale irrigation systems. It is a problem of those farmers at the tail end of irrigation systems not receiving their allotted share of water because those at the head end tend to take more than their share. This is related to poverty issues because the tail end farmers are usually the poorer ones, partly because of inequitable water distribution.

This has a special relevance in Pakistan. Since the development of tube wells for irrigation, mainly in Southern Punjab and Sindh, the tail end farmers have come to rely on groundwater to enhance their inadequate water supply from the irrigation system. In most areas groundwater levels are either declining or the water quality is deteriorating, evidence that access to groundwater will decline in the future, either directly through aquifer depletion, or through increasing pumping costs which will again affect poorer farmers to a greater extent.

Equity is a difficult problem to solve as it is not a technical one. Rather it is driven by bribery and corruption within the irrigation systems. Nevertheless, with commitment by the responsible organisations a solution is possible.

10.1.6 Information The irrigation departments of the provinces are required to measure the water flowing in rivers and that, which is diverted into all canals. They are also to maintain records at a prescribed interval. It is also required


that the sediment entering the canals is monitored in the Indus Canal Systems.

The information system used to be adequate but, over time, and partly due to financial constraints, this vital activity started receiving insufficient attention. The quality of the information deteriorated and credibility of data became doubtful. As the communications system also gradually decayed there was a lack of a reliable and regular means of communication for crisis management. As a result the data collected are inconsistent and not readily accessible.

Similarly, the groundwater monitoring data and information is not catalogued systematically and whatever information is recorded is not readily available. There is no regular institutionalised arrangement to catalogue and monitor the several hundred thousand private tubewells that exist.

There is no institutional arrangement for carrying out regular quantitative and qualitative monitoring of agricultural surface drainage effluent.

There is also no information system to catalogue, archive and disseminate information.

10.2 Future Irrigation Requirements Future requirements for water for agriculture are discussed in more detail in Section 5 on the Agriculture Sector. However, a briefer presentation is given here.

Pakistan’s current population of 141 million is projected to increase to 173 million in 2010 and 221 million in 2025. The percentage of urban population will increase from the current 35% to 42% by 2010 and 52% by 2025. This also suggests that the rural population dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods will remain about the same as it is now.

With the increase in the life expectancy and the increased migration from rural to urban areas, the whole demographic profile is also likely to undergo a major change over the next 25 years. The needs of the population for agricultural products especially food grains, edible oil,


milk, meat, fruits and vegetables, but also for cotton based materials and forestry products will also increase.

To assess the future requirements for agriculture, with emphasis on irrigated agriculture, two demand scenarios were considered. These were a ‘High Demand’ scenario based on the production targets given in the Ten Year Perspective Plan and a ‘Low Demand’ scenario which was developed in this study as an attempt at determining what is possible given the water and land availability constraints. The agricultural aspects of these scenarios are given in Section 5 on the Agricultural Sector. In this Section, the discussion is confined to irrigation requirements.

10.2.1 High Demand Scenario For meeting the production targets of the High Demand Scenario the cropped area would need to be increased to 75.46 MA (30.54 Mha) by 2010 and to 77.74 MA (31.42 Mha) by 2025 as compared to 56.26 MA (22.77 Mha) in 2000. This is a very large increase and will require not only intensification of agriculture but also will need addition of new areas requiring large investments in irrigation and drainage works. It will also require more water. The water requirements for the High Demand Scenario are given in Table 10.2.

At present the irrigation system, on average, is supplying about 11% less water than the actual crop water requirements due to the last three years of drought. For the ‘High Demand Scenario’ the canal water diversion requirements will amount to 170.4 MAF (210.2 BCM) in 2010-11 and will reduce to 155.0 MAF (191.1 BCM) in 2025 if the irrigation efficiency is increased to 50%. The available supplies will be about 39% short of the requirements in 2011 and 33% short in 2025 at 50 % irrigation efficiency. In addition, the municipal and industrial water requirements will further increase the demand of water. The total surface water availability in the Indus Basin is of the order of 143.18 MAF (176.63 BCM), however all of this water cannot be used for meeting the irrigation and municipal/industrial water demands due to environmental considerations.


HIGHER DEMAND SCENARIO

Year

2000/01 2010/11 2024/25





95.32 77.31 133.10 107.95 134.70 109.25


37.91 30.75 38.53 31.25 39.14 31.75


57.41 46.56 94.57 76.70 95.56 77.50

Irrigation Efficiency

0.40 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.50 0.50

Canal Head Requirements

143.53 116.40 210.16 170.44 191.11 155.00

Mean Annual Surface WaterAvailable

128.0 103.8 128.0 103.8 128.0 103.8

Shortfall 15.53 12.59 82.16 66.64 63.11 51.20 Shortfall ( %) 10.82 39.10 33.02

Table 10.2: Future Water Requirements, High Demand Scenario

The water requirements under the High Demand Scenario are much higher than the total exploitable/available resource, even if sufficient storage is constructed to utilise all available water and extensive water conservation measures are adopted. It is therefore apparent that the production targets of the High Scenario are not feasible and need to be adjusted downwards.

10.2.2 Low Demand Scenario The ‘Low Demand’ Scenario is based on meeting the domestic requirements of various commodities and to have an exportable surplus in rice and cotton. For meeting the production targets of the Low Demand Scenario the cropped area will need to be increased to 64.5


MA (26.1 Mha) by 2010 and to 67.5 MA (27.3 Mha) by 2025 as compared to 56.25 MA (22.77 Mha) in 2000. The cropped area increase would be through both intensification of existing irrigated areas and opening new areas, but the emphasis should be on intensification first. It should be noted, however, that this Strategy recommendation is not in line with the recent development initiatives of the GOP. Based on the WAPDA Vision 2025, several large-scale irrigation projects aimed at expanding agricultural area have been started. These make up almost all of the ongoing projects in the MTIP.

The water requirements for the Low Demand Scenario are shown in Table 10.3.

LOWER DEMAND SCENARIO

Year

2000/01 2010/11 2024/25





95.32 77.31 109.65 88.94 113.52 92.08


37.91 30.75 38.53 31.25 39.14 31.75


57.41 46.56 71.12 57.69 74.38 60.33

Irrigation Efficiency 0.40 0.40 0.425 0.425 0.45 0.45

Canal Head Requirements 143.53 116.42 167.35 135.74 165.28 134.07

Mean Annual SurfaceWater Available

128.00 103.81 128.00 103.81 128.00 103.81

Shortfall 15.53 12.61 39.35 31.93 37.28 30.26 Shortfall ( %) 10.83 23.51 22.56 Table 10.3: Future Water Requirements, Low Demand Scenario


For the Low Demand Scenario the canal water diversion requirements will amount to 135.74 MAF (167.35 BCM) in 2010-11 and to 134.07 MAF (165.28 BCM) in 2025. The available supplies will be about 32 MAF (24%) short of the requirements in 2010 and 30 MAF (23%) in 2025.

At present the agricultural sector is managing to meet demand for its products with a mean annual surface water supply of 103.8 MAF (128 BCM). The indicated ‘shortfall’ of 12.6 MAF is the shortfall as compared with established water requirements. And, given that there is currently significant overuse of water in certain areas, as evidenced by the waterlogging and salinity problem (see Section 10.2), it is questionable whether this is truly a ‘shortfall’. If this shortfall is to be eradicated, the additional water supply requirement would be 32 MAF in 2011 and 30 MAF in 2025. Even if the ‘shortfall’ continues to be accepted, the additional requirements would be over 19 MAF in 2011 and almost 18 MAF in 2025.

While the estimates of future water requirements are admittedly rough, with the combination of replacing lost storage and meeting the agricultural and other requirements of the future, additional storage of 20 to 25 MAF will be required. A further argument for storage is that much of the agricultural requirements will be met by increased cropping in the Rabi season. These needs can only be met through additional storage.

Storage, however, is a consideration for the water resources developers and not the irrigation and drainage sub-sector. As such, it is discussed here for completeness, but is not part of the objectives or strategy for this sub-sector.

The canal head requirements presented in Table 10.3 are partly based a recommended increase in irrigation efficiencies from the current estimate of 40% to 45% by 2025. While there may be scepticism as to whether this can be achieved, there is significant scope for this modest increase, through farmer education in water application in the field and through on-farm water management in the form of lining watercourses in saline areas.

Table 10.4 shows the calculation of the potential for efficiency increases. Assuming no improvement in the efficiencies of canals or distributaries /


minors (though there would be potential here, too), with improvements in watercourse efficiency of 5% and field application efficiency of 3% only.

2000 2010 2025

Calculation of Overall Efficiency (%) Canal Efficiency 90 90 90 Distributaries/Minor Efficiency 85 85 85 Watercourse Efficiency 75 77 80 Field Efficiency 70 72 73 Overall Efficiency 40 42 45

(Efficiency from Outlet) 53 55 58 Calculation of Water Saving (MAF) Canal Diversions 103.84 103.84 103.84Distributaries/Minors (at head) 93.46 93.46 93.46Watercourse Head 79.40 79.40 79.40Field Application 59.60 61.20 63.60Crop Use 41.70 44.00 46.40Efficiency 40% 42% 45%Water Saved - 2.3 4.7

Table 5.10: Calculation of Efficiency Increases and Water Savings

Potential water saving through improving irrigation efficiency is also shown on Table 5.10. By 2011, the saving would amount to 2.3 MAF and by 2025, 4.7 MAF.

With reference to the overall water resource potential of Pakistan, it is essential that conservation through improving irrigation efficiency be achieved. With the growing demands for water and the limitations of the resource, not achieving the required increases in crop production, improving availability of water through water conservation or improving availability of water through storage are the only options. Conservation is by far the least expensive option as well as the more sustainable. Achieving this level of increase in irrigation efficiency will require a determined effort on the part of both the agriculture and irrigation authorities and be backed up by political will to make it happen.


10.3 Objectives In view of the future irrigation requirements discussed above and the existing issues related to the agricultural drainage, the following objectives for development of irrigation and drainage for agriculture emerge as:

Basic Objectives

(i) Increase irrigation efficiency from 40% to 45% to conserve 4.7 MAF (5.80 BCM) of water; About 4 MAF through watercourse improvement and about 0.7 MAF through improved field application and improved technologies.

(ii) Achieve a system of equitable distribution of water in all systems;

(iii) Harness unused flood water and runoff from hill torrents; (iv) Increase irrigated agriculture over total area of 2 million

acres of culturable waste land in the country for both national agricultural needs and local poverty alleviation;

Objectives Specific to Groundwater

(v) Continue disinvestments (privatisation) of the tubewells in fresh groundwater areas to reduce government expenditure on, primarily, electricity costs;

(vi) Complete the ongoing process of formulation of regulations relating to groundwater abstraction by private tubewells.

Financial Objectives

(vii) Ensure sustainability of irrigation and drainage infrastructure;

(viii) Ensure financial sustainability of irrigation and drainage infrastructure by promoting stakeholder participation in irrigation management and improving management capabilities of the PIDAs; AWBs and FOs.


Drainage Objectives

(ix) Reduce waterlogging in 7 million acres of waterlogged irrigated land; and

(x) Provide a long term, environmentally safe solution to disposal of saline drainage effluent to the sea.

10.4 Constraints The primary constraints to the achievement of the proposed strategy for the irrigation and drainage sub-sector are:

(i) Difficulties in implementation of some projects; (ii) Scarcity of water; (iii) Inadequate information availability; (iv) Overuse of water in certain areas and insufficient efforts

in conservation; (v) Design of irrigation systems toward supply rather than

demand management; (vi) Inequitable distribution of water within the irrigation areas; (vii) Low cost recovery and insufficient maintenance of

infrastructure; (viii) Inadequate stakeholder participation.

Project implementation constraints

During the last twenty years over eighty major projects relating to the water sector have been implemented in Pakistan. Several of these projects experienced delays in implementation for various reasons, including:

(ix) Cash flow difficulties arising out of inadequate budgeting and mismanaged releases of the funds for utilization. The resources are often too thinly spread and a number of projects are started without ensuring adequate financial resources.

(x) Inadequate or defective and complex institutional arrangements.


(xi) For several reasons the quality of preparation of projects was not of the desired standard. This has several times caused revisions in scope of work, changes in priorities as well as cost overruns.

(xii) Disagreement between the conditionalities of the loan agreements and the wishes of the implementing agencies, who either do not support the conditionalities or do not follow agreed procedures.

A programme approach was used on the National Drainage Programme (NDP) and the Second Flood Protection Sector Project (FPSP-II) Projects. The Programme approach has several advantages over the normal project approach but these projects have faced difficulties in implementation. The National Drainage Programme was stalled for a time, but has now been restructured to get it started again.

Future problems of this sort may be solved through reassessment of the future loan agreements, collaboratively between the funding agencies, the federal government and the provincial governments. Also, consideration may be given to have independent provincial programme loans instead of one federal programme with provincial components, so that reservations of one province does not affect the implementation in other provinces.

Scarcity of water

The flow of the Indus River and its tributaries constitutes the main source of surface water for the country and there is only a limited potential for developing further water resources. There is, however, the potential to improve management of water and reduce losses, through water conservation and developing additional storage, thereby increasing the availability of useable water.

There is a need for rationalisation of the cropping pattern and its distribution of kharif and rabi crops. To meet the future food needs of the increased population an increase in the Rabi cropping, primarily for wheat, will be needed. This will require storage in order to hold water


during kharif for use in the rabi season, as well as for use during the early kharif season of the following year.

Difficulties in reaching consensus in the planning process

The provinces have been allocated their shares from the Indus river system. The allocation is primarily for irrigation with some allocation for urban water supply. In case of shortages IRSA decides the distribution of water among the provinces. The growing scarcity of water is causing conflict among the provinces on how to share shortages. This has resulted in dissent within IRSA, rendering it virtually impossible to unanimously interpret the provisions in the Water Accord. There is no overall authority which can override the stalemate for the good of the nation.

A resolution must be found quickly because, given the growing water requirements, the current stagnation of investment in the water sector and the time required to implement projects, especially large storage make time a major constraint.

Insufficient information availability

Water is one of the main constraints to the economic development, not just of the water sector, but of the economy as a whole. There is a need for appropriate accounting of water for investment planning and efficient resource use.

Related to the consensus problem described above is the information on which decisions are, or should be, based. That the information base is relatively poor allows it to be called into question any time decisions need to be made.

An information system providing credible data is needed. It should be developed with consensus among all stakeholders but with due consideration to the time constraints.


Overuse of water and lack of water conservation

The overuse of water for irrigation in certain areas is a major problem in Pakistan. This wasted water could not only be directed for expansion of agriculture, but it also leads to waterlogging and salinity. This, in turn, has led to a reduction in crop yields (a reduction of 25% overall and a high of 40-60% in Sindh), lower overall agricultural productivity and loss of cultivable land. It is important to note that, in these last two years of drought, production of some crops has declined only slightly and, for some crops, has increased. There are several factors at work here, such as receiving winter rains at the right time for the wheat crop, but much of it is also related to the reduced waterlogging resulting from the drought. The wheat yields in previously waterlogged areas have increased. It remains to be seen whether the appropriate lesson will be learned from these events.

The delivery efficiency from the canal head to the root zone varies from system to system but overall efficiency is estimated to be 40%. The losses occur in the conveyance canal systems (estimated to be of the order of 20%), watercourses (estimated to be of the order of 20-25%) and in the farm application (estimated to be of the order of 30 to 40%). It may however be noted that the seepage water losses in fresh groundwater areas cannot be considered as a pure wastage. It goes into the groundwater reservoir from where it is pumped back in periods of low water availability and provide supplemental irrigation water on demand. The timely availability of groundwater contributes to better yields and increased crop production. The real loss occurs in saline groundwater areas where this water cannot be used for irrigation and contributes to waterlogging and salinity. The lining of distributaries and minors should therefore be confined to saline areas. Any indiscriminate lining in fresh groundwater areas will reduce the groundwater availability and should be approached with caution after establishing its effect on availability of fresh groundwater. Moreover the lining of distributaries and minors is not economically attractive as it has low EIRR.

Improvement of overall irrigation efficiency to 45% can yield a substantial quantity of additional water (approximately 4.7 MAF). Proposed investments should include least cost interventions to bring about maximum conservation and subject to the needs of the area and


adaptability will comprise one or more of the following types of intervention.

• Farmer Training • Precision Land Levelling • Reduced Tillage/Resource Conservation Cultivation • Raised Bed Cultivation • Rain Water Harvesting • Drip and Trickle Irrigation Systems • Sprinkler Irrigation Systems • Watercourse Lining and improvement • Water Storage Tanks • Farm Water Reservoirs • Demonstration Centres • On Farm Drainage

It is considered unlikely that irrigation efficiencies can be increased economically beyond 45%.

Design of the Irrigation Systems

Irrigation systems in Pakistan were designed to distribute water with minimum human input involving low operating costs. There are few structures to regulate the canal flow and the outlets run only whenever the relevant distributary or minor canal is running. No escape channels are provided at the tail of the system and the surplus flows have to be absorbed within the command. The canals are unlined, designed to remain in equilibrium under varying sediment loads.

These features reduce flexibility of operation, which places a constraint on water management, especially a move to a demand, rather than a supply operated system. However, it is impractical and expensive to remodel, so this will likely remain a constraint through the period of the Strategy. A demand system would also require storage close to the irrigated areas.


Inequitable distribution of water

There is inequity in the distribution of irrigation water, between the water users in the head and tail reaches. This has an obvious impact on poverty. But it is a water management issue as well. Those at the tail end receive less water which means lower crop yields for the same inputs. It also is the result of actions of those at the head overusing water, which reduces the yields of those at the head as well, at least in waterlogged areas. It also forces tail-enders to use more groundwater. A combination of education, legislation and enforcement of that legislation, is required to solve the equity problem.

Low cost recovery and inadequate maintenance of irrigation and drainage infrastructure

The most crippling problem that irrigation in Pakistan faces is that the revenue generated by the irrigation sector is not adequate to meet O&M and other recurrent costs. This is due to low water charges as well as low recovery of the assessed water charges.

On a provincial basis the recovery of costs is estimated at:

• NWFP - 38%; • Punjab - 32%; • Sindh - 22%; • Balochistan - 12%.

These low levels of recovery make the irrigation system highly unsustainable and dependent on Government subsidy, which is a drain on scarce national reserves. System deterioration due to insufficient maintenance results in expensive rehabilitation, a further drain on reserves.

There is need to make the existing irrigation and drainage systems financially sustainable. A combination of appropriate and collectable water charges and farmer participation in irrigation management is needed. Determining how to make irrigation and drainage financially sustainable must be a priority, as there is little point in developing new


infrastructure only to have it deteriorate. All new projects should include workable financial sustainability plans for implementation with the project. One possible way for improving cost recovery is to adopt a volumetric basis for assessment of water charges.

Weakness of Institutions

The Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs) over the years have become less capable for carrying out O&M activities as well as new development. Causes include inadequate funding, outdated operating rules and conditions and resistance to institutional change, modern technology and management practices. Emphasis on technical performance has declined, along with their ability to enforce statuary provisions of the Canal and Drainage Act, which were the foundations of good irrigation practice. This has jeopardized the sustainability of the irrigation and drainage infrastructure.

Lack of good governance is a fundamental issue that adversely affects irrigation and drainage sector.

Lack of stakeholder participation

The legal framework is in place for the participation of farmers in the irrigation and drainage sector. Many Farmers Organizations (FOs) and Water User Associations (WUAs) have also been formed and some are functioning, but even those are not well empowered because the system is not working as envisaged. The process of implementing institutional reforms has been extremely slow for the participation of farmers in management of O&M activities.

10.5 Proposed Strategy for the I&D Sub-Sector The Strategy for the irrigation and drainage sub-sector is as follows:

(i) Commit to financial sustainability of irrigation and drainage systems.

(ii) In close collaboration with the Departments of Agriculture, implement a programme of improving irrigation efficiency from the current 40% to 45%.


(iii) Improve equity in irrigation distribution through participation of farmers and strong government commitment.

(iv) Modernize, rehabilitate and improve old barrages deteriorated irrigation systems.

(v) Improve drainage on approximately 7 MA of waterlogged land.

(vi) Increase cropped area, mainly through intensifying cropping over the existing area, with minimal expansion to new irrigation areas.

(vii) Develop new irrigation areas totalling approximately 2 million acres.

Commit to Financial Sustainability of Irrigation and Drainage Systems

A strong commitment to ensure the financial sustainability of irrigation and drainage infrastructure must be made at the highest levels. This would entail promotion of stakeholder participation in management of tertiary irrigation systems and paying water charges to support the upper systems. PIDAs and AWBs which are to be established under the NDP programme and in the On Farm Water Management Programme should receive training and other interventions to strengthen them for more effective management, providing a better quality of service and elimination of deferred maintenance in the barrages, main and branch canal systems and main drains.

The establishment of such farmer organisations is currently stalled in most provinces. These programmes need to be brought back on track as a priority.

Improve Irrigation Efficiency

An additional 4.7 MAF (5.8 BCM) of water has been estimated as being possible to develop through the conservation measure of increasing irrigation efficiency from 40% to 45%. This is achievable primarily by on-farm interventions such as lining of watercourses and better farm practices including precise land levelling, field application and appropriate irrigation technologies. Much research has already been


carried out on improved water use, in Pakistan and around the world. It is necessary now to create farmer awareness through campaigns and extension. This intervention should be undertaken jointly by the agriculture sector and the irrigation and drainage sub-sector. This has the added advantage of forming closer cooperation between agriculture and irrigation, which has not been a feature of irrigated agriculture.

As previously stated, developing 4.7 MAF of water through conservation could reduce the need for storage by this amount. Given the cost of storage, this could mean a saving of some US$ 5 billion.

Lining of distributary canals (secondary canals) is part of the conservation programme, with priority in saline areas where water is lost and cannot be reused. Any canal lining at any level must be carefully assessed before investment to ensure it has real benefits.

This initiative would also be greatly aided by returning to the programme of developing farmer organisations.

Modernize, Rehabilitate and Improve Existing Infrastructure

Modernization of old barrages and rehabilitation and improvement of deteriorated irrigation systems should be carried out as a priority, before any new infrastructure is developed, except perhaps where poverty alleviation is the primary purpose of the development. Much of the infrastructure is suffering from deferred maintenance and many of the older barrages are in great need of repair and modernisation. It would make little sense to invest in new systems as the existing ones are left to deteriorate.

Improve Drainage on Waterlogged Land

The National Drainage Programme (NDP) has been facing problems in implementation. However, it contains a considerable amount of drainage and other work, which is needed. To meet the objectives of 7 MA of improved drainage on waterlogged land, it will be more efficient and effective to earnestly implement the NDP rather than developing a new project. Being a programme, NDP is intended to have the flexibility to


adjust to the immediate needs. NDP has been recently reformulated and it is hope it will now be back on track.

An improvement may be to renegotiate the loan to improve ownership by the implementing agencies in the provinces. It is too late to provincially distribute the current NDP programme, but the later phases could provincially distributed. In addition to distribution of the programme, it may be necessary now to step back from the current model of FOs, AWBs and PIDAs and reconsider it in light of the main objective, financial sustainability, and the current lack of support these programmes have. NDP I, and later NDP II and III should then be completed.

The spinal drain, which is a component of NDP, should be constructed to provide a long-term, environmentally safe solution to disposal of saline drainage to the sea. The prefeasibility study was ongoing but is currently stalled along with all components of NDP. Cooperation and consensus between the provinces will be needed prior to its implementation. With the present climate of distrust among the provinces it may not be possible to carry out this intervention until such time as a Water Resources Apex Body is created (as proposed in Sections 6 and 14) to help resolve controversy among the provinces.

Intensify Cropping

In Section 5 on the Agriculture Sector, cropping and production requirements and targets for the future are discussed. In determining the production targets, a combination of improved crop yields and expansion of cropped area is shown to be necessary, with an additional cropped area needed of approximately 27 MA by 2025. However, this does not require expanding the physical area by this amount. It is much more cost effective to increase intensification of existing areas.

At present the average cropping intensity is listed at 95%, though there is some debate as to how much of this is due to the practice of under-reporting. Even with under-reporting the intensity is probably not much above 110% overall, allowing good potential for intensification.


The constraint to intensification is the availability of adequate water for meeting the crop water requirements, which in turn are dependent on additional storage. In the discussion on Water Resources Development (Section 6) it was estimated that additional storage of 20 to 25 MAF may be required to meet the agricultural needs of the future. The cost of the additional storage (22.5 MAF) was estimated at about US$ 14 billion. The cost of expanding irrigated area by 27 MA, the area needed without intensification, would be of the order of US$ 32 billion. Considering the 6 MAF, which could be derived through conservation measures, this would reduce the storage costs to closer to US$ 10 billion, a difference of US$ 22 billion, a considerable amount of money.

Hence it becomes a trade off between physical expansion of the area and construction of new storage, with the construction of new storage being much cheaper. And, the storage/intensification option leaves the possibility of expansion of the area for the future.

Develop New Irrigation Areas

Delay action dams, gabion dams and small storages should be constructed to harness the unused floodwater and flash flows of the hill torrents. Although some feasibility studies have already been carried out for some sites, there is need to update some feasibility studies and project preparation.

New irrigation systems should be developed to serve areas, which have irrigation potential. Extension of irrigation to about 2 million acres will be needed in addition to the intensification of cropping area. New development should be limited to areas, which are in need of poverty reduction. Projects considered must have assured water supply.

New projects should also include a detailed plan for financial sustainability.

Many of the projects which are now ongoing under the WAPDA Vision 2025 programme are new large scale irrigation schemes well beyond the 2 MA recommended here and not necessarily specifically directed at poverty reduction. While this is contrary to the recommendation of this


Strategy, studies, designs and even construction have begun as this is the current direction the government is taking for the I&D sub-sector.

Somewhat outside, but very much related to the irrigation and drainage sub-sector, is the need to develop additional storage to meet the increasing agricultural and other water demands. The storage also needs to be developed before most new irrigation projects, such as Kachhi Canal, Thal Canal, Rainee Canal, Jalalpur Canal (some of which are ongoing) and others are constructed, as these projects will not yield full benefits without assured perennial flows. A commitment to creating additional storage of 20 to 25 MAF is needed as a first step to further irrigation development, especially intensification of irrigation areas. This is discussed in detail in Section 6.

The proposed Strategy for the irrigation and drainage sub-sector is given in Table 10.5.


Immediate and Short Term Medium Term (to 2011) Long Term (to 2025) Make a strong commitment to financial sustainability of irrigation and drainage infrastructure at the highest levels. (2002) Prepare a plan for undertaking interventions for financial sustainability of the existing and proposed irrigation infrastructure. (2002-2003)

Undertake Training and capacity building to strengthen PIDAs and AWBs. (2003-2008) Implement pilot projects in all provinces for development of stakeholder participation in management of distributary and minor canals and paying and collecting watercharges to support the upper systems. Monitor results of the pilot projects. (2003-2005) Implement stakeholder participation in distributary and minor canals based on the results of the pilot projects. (2004-2011)

Continue implementation of stakeholder participation for distributary and minor canals over the entire irrigation and drainage infrastructure. (2011-2025)

Initiate Pilot Projects to evaluate use of modern irrigation technologies in all provinces for the garden areas. (2003-2005)

With participation of the farmers carry out projects involving new technologies in provinces based on the results of the pilot projects. (2004-2010)

Initiate specific interventions aimed at increasing irrigation efficiency to 45% in order to conserve 4.7 MAF (5.8 BCM) of water. (2002-2003)

Initiate on-farm interventions such as, lining of watercourses, precise land levelling etc. in cooperation with the agriculture sector. (2004-2011) Create independent M&E groups in the provinces to monitor the saving of water arising from on-farm intervention and refine the technical details of the intervention for better and sustainable results. (2003-2004)

Continue carrying out elements of on-farm intervention such as, lining of watercourses, precise land levelling etc and complete this activity in all provinces by 2025. Continue to monitor the saving of water. (to 2025 or open-ended)


Immediate and Short Term Medium Term (to 2011) Long Term (to 2025) Carry out assessments of distributary lining in saline areas to ensure their value and prioritise actions. (2002-2003)

Begin activities for lining of distributary canals only in saline areas. (2003-2011)

Continue lining of distributary canals in saline areas. (2012-2025)

Determine the rehabilitation needs for physical sustainability of the irrigation infrastructure and prepare a plan for rehabilitation and achieving financial sustainability for the future. (2003-2005) Prepare a plan to modernize old barrages on a priority basis (most needed works first). Prepare the feasibility studies for modernization of the prioritised barrages. (2003-2004)

Implement the modernization of the prioritised barrages for which feasibility studies are completed. (2003-2011) Rehabilitate/improve the existing irrigation systems for which feasibility studies have been prepared. (2005-2011) Prepare feasibility studies for modernization of the second priority barrages. (2005-2008)

Continue rehabilitation/improvement of the existing irrigation systems. (2011-2025) Continue modernization for second priority barrages. (2009-20015)

Restructure the National Drainage Programme (NDP) with more provincial focus to meet the objectives of improved drainage on 7 MA of waterlogged land. (2002) Complete the pre-feasibility study for construction of a Spinal Drain to carry saline effluent for environmentally safe disposal to the sea. (2002 – 2003)

Complete the revised NDP I. (2003-2006) Prepare NDP II and III and make use of lessons learnt during implementation of NDP I. Carry out the feasibility study for construction of a Spinal Drain to carry saline effluent for environmentally safe disposal to the sea. (2003 – 2005) Complete implementation of NDP II, which can include construction of a part of the Spinal Drain. (2007-2011)

Carry out NDP III and complete construction of the remaining part of the Spinal Drain. (2012-2025)

Prepare a plan to intensify cropping as new storage comes on line (2005)

Implement crop intensification programme (2007-2025)


Immediate and Short Term Medium Term (to 2011) Long Term (to 2025) Prepare a plan to carry out feasibility studies to implement harnessing of hill torrents and unused floodwater in Balochistan. (2002-2003)

Carry out construction of delay action dams, gabion dams and small storages where feasibility studies indicate positive results. (2003-2011) Carry out the feasibility studies for other sites to harness hill torrents and implement projects found feasible. Carry out studies to identify ways to utilize unused floodwater in Balochistan.

Continue implementation of feasible projects for delay action dams, gabion dams and small storages. (2011-2025) Carry out implementation of feasible projects to utilize unused floodwater in Balochistan.

Prepare a plan to carry out implementation of projects involving the expansion of irrigated agriculture. (2003-2004) Prepare/upgrade feasibility studies for the small irrigation schemes in NWF, Balochistan, NA and FATA. (2002-2003)

Implement prioritised projects in the Indus Basin for expansion of irrigated agriculture. (after commitment to create additional storage). (2004-2011) Carry out small irrigation schemes in Balochistan and NWF for which feasibility studies have indicated positive results. (2003-2011)

Continue implementation of projects in the Indus Basin involving the expansion of irrigated agriculture. Continue carrying out small irrigation schemes in Balochistan, NWF, NA and FATA for which feasibility studies have indicated positive results. (2011-2025)

Complete the on-going process of formulation of regulations relating to groundwater pumping by private tubewells and take measures to enforce them and monitor the aquifers on regular basis. (2002-2003)

Continue disinvestment (privatisation) of the tubewells in fresh groundwater. (2002-2011) Enforce the regulations relating to groundwater pumping by private tubewells. Monitor and document the aquifers on regular basis. (2002-2011)

Monitor and document the aquifers on regular basis. (2012-2025, or open-ended)

Table 10.5 Irrigation Strategy Interventions


10.6 Cost Estimate The cost has been estimated based on feasibility reports, PC-I Proformae and the concept papers (updated to year 2000 costs) provided by the Provincial Working Groups and the block allocations.

The total cost of the irrigation and drainage interventions needed to achieve the objectives of the sub-sector is summarised by Province in Table 10.6 and by type of intervention in Table 10.7.

Concern has been raised over the very large cost of the proposed Strategy. This is a valid concern and some prioritisation must be made where funding is limited. Within the Strategy as a whole, domestic water (urban and rural) has been prioritised. Within the irrigation and drainage sub sector the prioritisation should be as follows:

(i) develop new irrigation areas totalling approximately 2 million acres.

(ii) modernizing, rehabilitating and improving old barrages deteriorated irrigation systems.

(iii) improving irrigation efficiency; (iv) improve drainage on approximately 7 MA of

waterlogged land; (v) intensifying cropping over the existing area;

Province

Cost of Projects

($US Million)

Punjab 4,281

Sindh 3,368

NWF 1,820

Balochistan 1,630

Total 11,099

Table 10.6: Provincial Cost Summary for the I&D Sub-sector


Province ($US Million) Intervention

Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan Total

Studies 71 54 14 12 151

Drainage 364 615 100 66 1,145

Conservation of Water 742 643 183 92 1,660

New Irrigation 1,543 1,218 842 993 4,596

Small Storages/Harnessing of Hill Torrents

238 131 531 437 1,337

Rehabilitation/Modernization/Sustainability

1,323 707 150 30 2,210

Total 4,281 3,368 1820 1630 11,099

Table 10.7: Cost Summary for the I&D Subsector by Type of Intervention


11 HYDROPOWER


11.1.1 The Power Sector The total power generation capacity in Pakistan (September 2001) is 17,952 MW. This includes a hydropower generation capacity of 5,042 MW, a thermal power generation capacity of 12,910 MW and a nuclear power generation capacity of 462 MW. The hydro:thermal mix of the present generation capacity is 28:72, which is almost the reverse of what is considered an ideal mix for overall economic development of 70:30. Table 11.1 shows the present power generation capacity in Pakistan.

Capacity (MW) Entity *1

Hydro Thermal Total

WAPDA 5,012 4,750 9,762IPPs (WAPDA System) 30 5,680 5,710KESC - 1,756 1,756IPPs (KESC System) - 262 262Nuclear: Chasnupp Kanupp

- 325 137

462

Total 5,042 12,910 17,952Table 11.1: Present Power Generation Capacity

Notes: *1 IPPs are Independent (private sector) Power Producers

Of the total thermal power generation capacity of 12,910 MW, a capacity of 5,942 MW was installed between 1997 and 2001 by private sector investors. This is significant in that it indicates that there is further potential for private sector involvement in the power sector.

Presently, the combined public and private sector generation capacity is sufficient to meet power demands up to 2004-2005. However, at present only about half of the population has access to electricity. With economic development, this proportion will


grow, as will per capita demands. The power sector will be a major growth area over the next quarter century.

About half of the existing thermal power output is produced by the private sector and the sector would probably be capable of meeting most of the future demand. However, with the use of furnace oil as the main fuel, thermal generation of electricity is expensive, putting an additional financial burden on consumers and on government finances, as power is subsidised to some extent. Recent major gas finds may however make this the fuel of the future for thermal stations. There are also environmental concerns. Estimates of the annual environmental benefits from the existing hydropower capacity in avoiding emissions from thermal generation are 38 to 49 thousand tons of SO2 , 29 to 34 thousand tons of NOX, 11.5 to 13.5 million tons of CO2 and 1.2 to 1.3 thousand tons of partite material. Increasing the proportion of hydro in future power developments will have a similar positive impact on reducing emissions. There are, however, environmental and social concerns associated with hydro development, mainly related to the resettlement requirements and environmental impacts of large storage dams.

There have been recent finds of large new deposits of natural gas in Pakistan, which may be used for thermal power generation. Especially with the recent improvements in the efficiency of gas-fired technology (the Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) technology), this may be an attractive alternative to furnace oil and, indeed to hydropower generation. There would remain the question of the sustainability of using gas and this would need to be investigated in an overall power generation strategy.

There is real potential for hydropower development in Pakistan. Apart from large storage dams, there is considerable potential for relatively inexpensive and low-impact run-of-river schemes, which can also be made operational fairly quickly and could be attractive to private sector investment.

11.1.2 Existing Hydropower Capacity There are four major hydropower generation projects and a number of small hydel projects currently in operation in Pakistan, as shown in Table 11.2.


Scheme Capacity (MW)

Tarbela (Indus) 3,478 Mangla (Jhelum) 1,000 Warsak (Kabul) 240 Chashma (Indus) 187 Small Hydel (various) 137 Total 5,042

Table 11.2: Present Hydropower Capacity

Since the completion of Tarbela Dam in 1977, no new major storage dam has been constructed. Hydropower generation has been increased at both Mangla and Tarbela dams through adding new power units. Chashma Hydropower Project was built as an addition to an existing barrage, with a small amount of storage associated with it. The under construction Ghazi Barotha Hydropower Project is a run-of-river scheme. Work on it stopped after the September 11 event, but it has now resumed.

The capacities of the three existing reservoirs of the Indus Basin, Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma, are declining due to sedimentation. The live storage capacity of the three reservoirs is estimated to have declined by about 20% (see Section 6.1.5). New storage, partly to replace the lost storage but also to increase capacity, is being considered under WAPDA’s Vision 2025 programme and the Ten Year Perspective Plan (TYPP). This Strategy also recommends the development of new storage within the Indus Basin (see Section 6.2).

Basha Dam and the raising of Mangla Dam are two of the projects included in the Vision 2025 and the TYPP. The feasibility study for Basha started recently. Basha has some technical difficulties because of its distance from centres of population and transport infrastructure, and the need to move some 40 km of the Karakoram Highway.

The raising of Mangla Dam also has problems, particularly in flooding areas of Mirpur and other towns in AJK. The Jhellum also does not provide the same level of reliable flow as the Indus and thus less hydropower and stored flow for irrigation would be available from this option, for a similar amount spent, as would be available from similar levels of expenditure on storage on the Indus.


Previous studies have shown that Kalabagh is the best option for the next storage to be developed. It would provide significant additional power and feasibility studies; designs and tender documents have already been completed. However, the construction of Kalabagh is controversial and would require a consensus among the provinces before it could go ahead. There are several other storage possibilities, discussed in Section 6 on Water Resources Development. These would be multi-purpose projects, with irrigation and other water supplies a key purpose in their development, but many have good hydropower potential as well. An Integrated Water Resources Master Plan is proposed as a key component of the Strategy (see Section 6.2), which would identify the way forward for storage, and the development of hydropower associated with it.

Hydropower generation in Pakistan is governed by irrigation releases, which increases the normal hydrological risk associated with all hydro projects. In early summer (pre-monsoon) the reservoir levels are generally low and the turbines operate at relatively low heads, with consequent low power output. In the flood season the reservoir levels are high and large discharges can be passed through the turbines for maximum power generation. In winter the irrigation requirements are low and the discharges available for power generation are limited, resulting in low power output. Hence, the actual power production varies, between a high of 5,100 MW in September and a low of 2,650 MW in May. The yearly average hydropower generation is of the order of 3,750 MW.

11.1.3 Financial Issues The main financial issue in hydropower is the capital financing of future developments. Hydropower is one of the few water sub-sectors where investment could be attractive to the private sector. However, events over the last few years have made the private sector wary of investment in Pakistan in general, including the hydropower sub-sector. The main concern has been the lack of consistency between successive governments on guaranteed tariff rates. There are currently licences held by international investors for several hydropower developments, but they are holding off until the climate is more favourable. Until such time as these concerns are cleared up, there is unlikely to be any private sector involvement in the hydro sub-sector, which would be an unfortunate loss to the power sector as a whole.

Hydropower generation was 18,106 (GWh) in 2000-2001. At the prevailing unit price of electricity of Rs 4.5 per kWh, whereas the


cost of generating hydropower in most of the run of river schemes that have been proposed is around Rs 2 per kWh. The total expenditure on power is Rs. 81.5 billion (US$ 1,358 M). The unit cost of electricity is high due to the reliance on thermal power (the unfavourable hydro- thermal mix of 28:72). The unit cost of electricity is likely to increase further unless additional hydropower generation capacity is created to improve, or at least maintain, the hydro-thermal mix.

11.2 Demand Projections

11.2.1 National Power Demands The current power demand (Year 2001) is estimated at 11,850 MW. The effective power generation capacity is now 14,800 MW, resulting in a surplus generation capacity of over 3,000 MW. Three scenarios were considered for estimating the future power demand:

(i) an estimated natural / unrestricted growth rate of 11%. The aggressive revival of the sick industries programme announced by the Government also supports 11% demand growth. However, it is very optimistic because of the slow revival of industry that has actually occurred during the last few years. Under this first scenario the peak demand would increase to 33,646 MW in 2010/11 and 145,031MW in 2024/25.

(ii) a demand increase based on the actual demand growth of recent years, which would result in a projected constrained / restricted demand growth rate of 8.8%. The peak demand would increase to 27,541 MW in 2010/11 and 89,700 MW in 2024/25.

(iii) a conservative growth in demand of 6.1%. The peak demand would increase to 21,423 MW in 2010/11 and 49,078 MW in 2024/25.

These alternative scenarios are shown in tabular form in Table 11.3.


Year Potential Peak Demand (MW) (11% growth)

Restricted Peak

Demand (MW) (8.8% growth)

Potential Peak Demand (MW) (6.1% growth)

Sept. 2001 11,850 (Actual)

11,850 (Actual)

11,850 (Actual)

2010/11

33,646 27,541

21,423

2024/025 145,031 89,700 49,078

Table 11.3: Estimated Future Power Demands

Thus taking the conservative growth rate assumption, the additional power required is calculated at 9,573 MW in 2011 and at 37,228 MW by 2025, there may be additional development requirements due to:

• accommodating the retiring of old plants and catering for the ever increasing system losses. (Losses increased from 24% in 1994 to 30.6 % in 2000.)

• seasonal variations in hydro-power capacity • provision of adequate spinning and maintenance

reserves

11.2.2 Power Demands by Province Table 11.4 shows the projected power demands for each province, also based on the 6.1% growth rate.

Power Demands (MW) Province

2011 2025

Punjab 12,074 29,103 Sindh 4,798 10,993 NWFP 3,064 7,018 Balochistan 857 1,964 Table 11.4: Estimated Future Power Demands by Province

(6.1% growth rate)


11.3 Objectives The main objectives of the hydropower sub-sector are to:

(i) Develop the hydropower sub-sector in parallel with an overall power sector strategy;

(ii) Attract private sector investment through creating a favourable climate for private investment;

(iii) Develop the hydropower potential of any new multipurpose storage projects (proposed under the water resources sub-sector) (potential > 6000 MW);

(iv) Develop run-of-river hydro projects through private sector financing (potential – 2750 MW).

Objectives for the hydropower sector are not dependent on the water sector alone and hydropower must be developed based on the overall needs and objectives of the power sector. The issue for the sector is the trade-off between thermal and hydropower generation.

It is assumed that a 70:30 hydro-thermal ratio is desirable, which would result in a hydropower contribution of 15,000 MW by 2011 and 34,500 MW by 2025. However, while the total hydropower potential is estimated at 40,000 MW, the economic hydropower potential is estimated at only 20,000 MW (and may be less), so achieving this ratio is unlikely.

Development of the hydropower sub-sector has been promoted mainly because of the high cost of thermal power generation resulting from the use of furnace oil. The recent discoveries of large natural gas deposits in Pakistan warrant a reconsideration of this. There are sustainability and environmental concerns with using gas (or furnace oil), but the same is true with hydro. One advantage of the thermal sector is that the private sector is already firmly established. These aspects would have to be considered within the context of an overall power strategy.

Large-scale storage projects are multi-purpose, constructed both for hydropower and irrigation and other water uses and provide flood attenuation benefits. It is proposed in this Strategy that large storage be developed for the primary purpose of ensuring water supplies for the future. Developing the hydro potential associated with it would be an attractive option for the power sector. The cost and contribution to the installed capacity of these is shown in Table 11.5 below.


Thus the implementation of these major storage projects would contribute an additional 6,500 MW of power generating capacity in addition to the improved availability of year round water supply for irrigation described in Section 6.2, at a cost of US$ 6.5 billion. Based on the rule of thumb of 70% of the costs being associated with the hydro component, the hydropower cost of full development would be US$4.5 billion.

Project Cost (MUS$)

Installed Capacity (MW)

Kalabagh 1st Phase only 5,000 3,000

Basha 6,000 3,360Raising Mangla 883 180

Total 11,883 6,540Say 12,000 6,500Table 11.5: Cost and Installed Capacity of Major Storage Projects

These projects are not likely to be suitable for private sector financing and are likely to require international financial assistance to develop. That said, there are models that would allow some private sector participation, such as the civil works could be constructed using GOP/donor finance and a BOT or suppliers credit arrangement for the supply of the M&E works.

There are several proposed run-of-river schemes which are relatively inexpensive and have much lower environmental impacts than large storage. These should be considered for priority development, with emphasis on attracting investment from the private sector. Table 11.6 gives details of some4 of the potential run of river schemes, which are also shown on Figure 11.1. These could contribute an additional 2,400 MW of capacity and a development cost of around US$ 3,459 million.

4 This is a short list of projects for which some studies are available and where the projects have been found feasible. The ADB 1997 TA on Hydropower Policy identified a total of 75 potential run of river projects with a total capacity estimated at 9,800 MW. Most of these require further study before they could be considered.


Name Installed Capacity

(MW)

Cost (million US$)

Studies Completed Status

Allai Khwar 121 110 Lahmeyer Feasibility Study late 1990s. Generation cost estimated at Us Cents 2.44/kwh, peaking project. EIRR estimated at 30.79%

Abu Dhabi fund have agreed US$ 60 m. Gov have called for bids from Contractors.

Dubair Khwar 130 109 Feasibility Study by SHYDO/GTZ completed in 1998. EIRR 34.7%, 4 year implementation period, Dam height 30m, tunnel 5.2km. Generation costs 2.17 cents

Abu Dhabi fund have agreed US$ 55 m. Gov have called for bids from contractors.

Khan Khwar 72 86 Feasibility study by SHYDO/GTZ 1997. Cost is from this study and is not updated. Generation cost estimated to be US cents 2.28/kwh

Abu Dhabi fund have agreed US$ 40 m. Gov have called for bids from contractors.

Matiltan 84 133 Halcrow/Norconsult/ACE feasibility study 1996, cost is taken from this.

Synergics hold license for a BOT for this, reported that this is on hold at present but they expect to pursue when the climate is right. Also tariff requested is not acceptable to WAPDA. Logistics difficult, main road needs improvement.

Kohala 740 1381 PCII for feasibility study, design and tender documents is currently under review

Synergics hold license for a BOT for this. But Gov appears now to be taking a different route.

Renolia 11.5 11.2 SHYDO/ITECO, 1994. License held by ITECO, has expired but ITECO have a stay order from the courts regarding any development.

Malakand 3 75 80 Studied by Binnie as part of the Upper Swat Canal study – Cost estimated at 2.18 cents/KWh

NWFP Government have arranged finance and asked for EOIs for contractors to undertake this on an EPC basis. Probably the most financially, environmentally and economically attractive project.


Name Installed Capacity

(MW)

Cost (million US$)

Studies Completed Status

Neelum Jhellum 969 1335 HEPO/Norconsult, 1996, very good and comprehensive study. Requires two 32 km long tunnels – high risk. Long construction period – 8 years.

WAPDA have called for tenders on a finance and construct basis

Golen Gol 106 104 HEPO/GTZ, 1997. Generation cost estimated at US cents 2.04 /Kwh, EIRR at 28.44%

Approved by ECNIC and due to be financed by the Chinese but Gov still waiting for draft proposal from the Chinese on this. Logistics very difficult, road closed for 6 months of the year. Located in National Park, which may be a problem.

Bunji 1500 2689 Reconnaissance Approved by CDWP 1/3/01, WAPDA now appointing consultants for feasibility studies.

Doyian 425 346 Feasibility Study in Progress Feasibility study for WAPDA in progress Satpara 13 34 Design completed WAPDA to request EOIs from contractors

for construction soon. Dasu 2712 3107 Reconnaissance PCII for feasibility studies, detailed

design and tender documents prepared and submitted for approval.

Pehur High Level 10 8 Feasibility study by ACE/Halcrow completed. Small scheme on outlet to Tarbella for the Pehur High Level Canal.

Table 11.6: Selected Run-of-River Hydropower Schemes


11.4 Constraints The primary constraints to developing the hydropower sub-sector are:

(i) The need for formulation of a policy attractive to private investors;

(ii) The length of time required to develop large storage associated with hydropower;

(iii) The longer development time for run-of-river hydropower, as compared with thermal power plants, making the thermal sub-sector more attractive to private investors;

(iv) High cost of development; (v) Inadequate private sector investment;

Consensus and Government Policy

The main constraints to the development of hydropower in Pakistan are: achieving consensus on the development of large storage schemes, allocating funds from GOP for the run of river schemes and the lack of an enabling environment for the private sector to finance these. Large-scale international funds are unlikely to be available for many of these (albeit that the Abu Dhabi Fund as agreed to part finance three) as the international funding institutions consider that they should be developed by the private sector.

The barrier to achieving consensus for the large hydropower schemes largely revolves around three issues, which need to be resolved:

1. The royalty to be provided to the Province (or AJK) in which the hydropower facility is located. Scheme developments are held up as provinces denied this royalty where the power station is in another area object to the scheme. This assumes that the facility is the power station and not the entire complex. A compromise on this issue is urgently required.

2. Additional storage will change the flow regime downstream of Kotri. The environmental needs and saline intrusion of the groundwater need to be studied (under the proposed Integrated Water Resources Master Plan).


3. Issues relating to control of the water, that upstream Provinces could and might use all the water and deny access to lower Provinces. Again a compromise is required on this issue.

Finances

As described above hydropower development is constrained by a shortage of funds. However, this could be overcome if the constraints described above were to be overcome.

Lack of interest by the private sector for investment

The climate for private sector investment is unattractive at present due to events over the last few years, which have made the potential investors wary. The policy issued in 1994 to attract investments in hydropower projects has not proved as investor friendly as hoped as it lacked adequate incentives and protection against certain regulatory risks for the potential investors. The 1994 Policy was replaced by the 1998 Policy for New Private Independent Power Projects. The main features of this policy, as regards hydropower are:

• Whilst the previous policy was based on a set tariff under the 1998 policy the private sector will be invited to bid for projects on a lowest tariff basis.

• Previous blanket exemptions from taxes and duties have been removed in the current policy and companies are expected to operate under the tax laws of Pakistan.

• Bids will be accepted on a minimum levelised tariff basis through international competitive bidding. The process of selection is to involve pre-qualification, issuance of Request for Proposals, bidding and evaluation of bids against clear, preset criteria.

• Feasibility studies, to international standards, are to be prepared prior to requesting bids, but the contents of the studies will not be guaranteed by the Government.


• Hydel projects will be implemented on a Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) basis to be transferred to the province in which the project is situated at the end of the concession period.

• Competitive tariffs will comprise an energy purchase price and a capacity purchase price, with adequate provisions for escalation.

• A water use charge would be paid to the province or AJK as a royalty for the site.

The 1998 Policy in itself provides for a good framework for the development of IPP hydropower projects in Pakistan. However, a number of factors are preventing its implementation.

• As shown on the above tables, WAPDA, rather than NWFP or AJK are taking most of these schemes up and trying to undertake them in the public sector. This means that public funds, which could be used for other, less financially viable, parts of the strategy, are used on this when private sector finance could be available.

• The climate for the private sector would have to be made friendlier, with certainty that the political risk of successive governments changing polices or tariff rates would be removed and with sovereign guarantees provided on payments.

Most investors have other options for their investments and, other elements being equal, will favour those with the lowest risks. A way must be found to attract the private sector as it is unlikely that hydro can reach its full potential in Pakistan without it.

Legal and regulatory issues

Relating to finances and the current private sector climate, the legal and regulatory framework which would protect the private sector, the government and the consumers, is weak and has been a factor in creating the current climate. New legislation and regulatory rules need to be established.


11.5 Proposed Hydropower Development Strategy The hydropower component of the Strategy comprises a combination of institutional interventions and development of hydropower schemes. The proposed strategy is as follows:

11.5.1 Institutional Interventions

Strengthening the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA)

The role of the regulating body, NEPRA, needs to be strengthened in order to protect the interests of consumers and companies providing electric power services and to issue generation licenses for specific companies and to regulate its operations according to NEPRA rules and regulations

Reorganisation of the Private Power & Infrastructure Board (PPIB)

The governing board, PPIB, should be reorganised to include representation from each of the four provinces of Pakistan plus the federal areas of FANA and AJK. This would provide a ‘one-window’ support location which is understood by all.

To facilitate coordination between various agencies and to help PPIB in taking timely decisions on various issues while implementing power projects, especially hydro power projects, a high level committee should also be established under the Minister for Water and Power with high level representation from PPIB, WAPDA, KESC, Planning & Development Division, concerned Provincial/AJK Private Power Boards (PPBs). This Committee may oversee the implementation of hydropower generation schemes, facilitate the approval process and help resolve issues concerning coordination between various Federal and provincial agencies and departments. This could be combined with the duties of the Apex Body proposed to be established within the Ministry of Water and Power to oversee the implementation of the strategy.

Such support at the Provincial level will also be required and may be provided by establishing Provincial Private Power Boards.


Development of Model Agreements

A Model Implementation Agreement, a Power Purchase Agreement and a Water Use License (WUL) may be prepared for private hydropower projects to eliminate the need for protracted negotiations.

11.5.2 Development of Hydropower Schemes The development of hydropower schemes needs to be considered in two parts, the major storage schemes and the smaller run of river schemes.

The development of the major schemes is discussed in detail in Section 6. It is proposed that an Integrated Water Resources Master Plan study be undertaken which would include an update of previous studies of the potential major storage projects on the Indus and its tributaries, and the environmental effects of these, including the effects on the Indus delta, in order to provide a sound technical, economic, financial, social and environmental rationale for a planned development of storage schemes. It is recommended that this study be undertaken in accordance with the recommendations of the World Commission on Dams final report, in order that the findings will be acceptable to all stakeholders and to major financing institutions.

The smaller scale, mainly run-of-river, schemes many of which are in a late stage of preparation, with feasibility studies complete, are expected to add 2,400 MW of hydropower at an estimated cost of Rs US$ 3.4 billion (Rs. 171 billion). Funding from bilateral donors, with potential additional funding by the private sector, is being discussed, and some financing from bilateral donors already committed.

The development of these run of river schemes would be a good opportunity if the constraints to potential investors can be removed. Significant effort and commitment will be needed to attract the private sector to hydropower in Pakistan given the difficulties faced by the private sector in recent years.


12 ENVIRONMENT


12.1.1 Environmental Quality Environmental quality in Pakistan, as in much of the developing world, has been deteriorating due to the rapid growth of population (2.6% a year) accompanied by an increasing demand for natural resources with economic growth and improved communications. Environmental impacts are closely linked with development policies, practices and the efficiency with which natural resources are managed.

Despite the overall benefits of past development activities, Pakistan has experienced, and is still facing, a number of environmental problems resulting from them, including: the degradation of natural resources, increasing water pollution, degradation of the quality of the environment, increasing health hazards and the deterioration of biodiversity. In monetary terms, the annual cost of overall environmental degradation in the country has been estimated to be US$ 1.86 billion annually or about 4% of GDP. In an effort to counter the current pace of environmental degradation, the Ten Year Perspective Plan has made a provision of Rs. 13.7 billion over the next ten years. This effort is supplemented by the waterlogging and salinity control projects also included in the TYPP.

The major water-related environmental problems include:

• widespread pollution of surface water ( rivers, canals, nullahs, streams, wetlands, coastal areas) by untreated municipal and industrial effluents and agricultural drainage;

• contamination of groundwater through solid waste disposal in low-lying areas;

• waterlogging and salinity from over-use of irrigation water and lack of drainage;

• over-exploitation of groundwater;


• reduction of the live capacity of major reservoirs due to the deposition of sediments from soil erosion in the catchments/watershed areas;

• soil erosion and flooding due to deforestation, overgrazing and insufficient soil conservation and land management practices.

12.1.2 Watersheds An estimated area of over 24.5 million ha of the upper Indus Basin catchment lies within Pakistan in the northern areas of NWFP and the mountains of Punjab province. The rate of soil erosion in the watershed areas is accelerating, due mainly to overgrazing, deforestation, poor land use practices, the cultivation of marginal lands resulting from the rapid growth of population, and the lack of alternative sources of wood for fuel and of economic opportunities in the upland and mountain areas. There are an estimated 1.2 Mha of eroded land in Pakistan and a further estimate indicates that 76% of land in Pakistan is affected, to varying degrees, by wind and water erosion.

On steeper slopes of the Tarbela Dam catchment area the annual loss of soil due to erosion has been estimated to be as high as 40 tonnes/ha. As a result of such erosion the live storage capacity of Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma reservoirs is estimated to have declined by 20% by 2000. Experience has shown that soil erosion and reservoir sedimentation can be significantly reduced through proper management of watershed catchment areas. The Watershed Management Project implemented by the NWFP Forestry Department in two consecutive phases since the early 1970s has been quite effective in the reduction of soil erosion and the sedimentation of Tarbela Reservoir, and the Mangla Dam Watershed Management Programme has also achieved successes.

12.1.3 Forest Cover Pakistan’s forest cover is limited and presently covers only 4.8 % of its total area. In spite of the massive reforestation programme carried out during the last three decades, covering an area of about 1.2 MHa, the forest cover has actually reduced since 1989, due to the higher rate of deforestation, estimated at 7,000-9,000 ha per year. Some of 88% of the deforestation is attributed to wood cutting for fuel, with the remaining 12% being for timber and other purposes.


12.1.4 Legal Framework The existing legal framework for environmental protection and management is reasonably adequate, although there are certain weaknesses. Some provisions in various regulations are insufficiently specific and detailed. They also tend to be too punitive in tone, with not enough emphasis on incentives and a partnership approach. National Environmental Quality Standards (NEQS), enacted in 1993, define allowable limits for 32 pollutants in effluents and industrial discharges, along with other limits related to industrial and vehicular air emissions. Environmental Courts to deal with pollution cases have been set up in Karachi and Lahore. Environmental assessment regulations enacted in 1992 elaborate the modalities and procedures for EIAs (Environmental Impact Assessments) and IEEs (Initial Environmental Examinations).

A 1983 Ordinance was replaced by the Pakistan Environmental Protection Act, 1997, placing greater emphasis on reducing water pollution, creation of an environmental protection institutional framework and enforcing preventive measures in the form of EIAs and IEEs. The Act provided for the protection, conservation, rehabilitation, improvement of the environment as well as prevention and control of water pollution. Through the Act, a 45-member Pakistan National Environment Protection Council (PNEPC) was established. The Council meets at least twice a year, is chaired by the Chief Executive / Prime Minister and participated in by ministers, secretaries and senior officials of the concerned ministries.

The Act also established the National Environment Protection Agency (NEPA), represented by one Federal and four provincial EPAs, and the two Environment Tribunals mentioned above. The Act, the National Environment Quality Standards (NEQS), the PNEPC and the EPAs make up the existing mechanisms for environmental protection and management. The National Environmental Policy (provided for in the Act) and National Water Policy documents are still in the draft stage and their approval is expected soon. Approval of these Policies is expected to strengthen the effectiveness of the existing mechanisms.

12.1.5 Institutional Framework Environment and water-related organisations in Pakistan are numerous, each performing activities in line with their specific interests. Those with


a direct concern with environmental aspects include the Ministry of Environment, Local Government and Rural Development, the EPAs, the Ministries of Water and Power, Agriculture, Food and Livestock (with respect to watershed management and agro-chemical use), Industries (industrial pollution), Public Health, Science & Technology, provincial departments of Irrigation and Irrigation and Drainage Authorities (waterlogging and salinity), the WASAs and Public Health Engineering Departments (sanitation) and a number of other public and private institutions. Hence, the environment-related institutions in Pakistan are quite fragmented, with limited exchange of information and coordination amongst them. A particular concern with regard to urban wastewater pollution and quality is the future institutional capacity of the urban water supply and sanitation sub-sector in the towns and smaller cities following the devolution of the PHED’s responsibilities to the local level.

12.1.6 Water Quality A review of various documents on water and environment clearly indicates that the quality of both surface and groundwater is deteriorating in Pakistan, causing:

(i) serious health hazards, especially for infants, due to the prevalence of water-borne diseases such as diarrhoea 1and dysentery;

(ii) threats to aquatic life due to shortage of fresh water in the rivers, wetlands and coastal areas; and

(iii) reduction of farm productivity due to waterlogging, salinity and agrochemical pollution.

Under Pakistani conditions, water quality needs to be assessed in relation to its various uses, available supply, source and location of water body, nature of water quality whether biological, chemical or physical and the level of awareness of the intended users as to what quality of water would satisfy their needs.

In terms of agricultural use (irrigation), the quality of water in the Indus River and its tributaries has been frequently reported as excellent, but this means only that the level of salinity (TDS) is good for irrigation. However, in certain reaches pollution levels are high as a result of the


untreated disposal of municipal, industrial and agricultural effluents. Agriculture, through the disposal of saline drainage effluent and, to some extent, and improper use of agrochemicals, has become a substantial polluter of surface and groundwater bodies. This, combined with the high level of diversion of Indus flows for irrigation purposes, is damaging aquatic resources (e.g. fish, shrimps, the Indus Delta mangrove forest) in the coastal areas and wetlands.

Historically, water concerns in Pakistan have been quantity-focused, giving lower priority to the quality of water. In areas of water scarcity such as most of Balochistan, Sindh and southern Punjab, it is the supply of water that people have been demanding; they have tended to accept water with whatever quality provided. In Pakistan, as in any developing country, water quality mostly affects the poor, who have little power to exert pressure to change policies and priorities and cannot afford alternatives such as bottled water, filtering and boiling. In fact, the growth of water bottling companies may be one of the factors working against water quality improvement in Pakistan, in that it may have reduced the political pressure for improvement.

Biologically, the microbial quality of drinking water is a dominant health issue and none of the urban water schemes in Pakistan match WHO drinking water guidelines. In rural areas, where about 70% of the population reside, there is no system in place to assess the quality of drinking water.

Groundwater is used for both drinking and industrial purposes and as a supplementary source of water in irrigated agriculture. Recently, reliance on groundwater for domestic purposes has been growing. TDS levels in the groundwater tend to be better (lower) near the irrigation canals and become poorer farther away. The quality also depends on the depth of the water table, the amount of precipitation, the extent of groundwater exploitation and the amount of recharge. It is estimated that, as a result of poor water quality, about 90% of Pakistan’s population is exposed to unsafe drinking water and none of the major cities in Pakistan has safe water in the public water supply system. Because of pollution, untreated water in the rivers, nullahs, streams and ponds as well as the contaminated groundwater are unsafe for drinking purposes.


Reported cases in the hospitals show that 30-40 % of the patients are suffering from water-borne diseases. Other reports attribute 40% of total deaths and 60% of children’s deaths to water-borne diseases.

Pollution and contamination of water bodies has become a serious national concern to Pakistan. The increasing scarcity of water will further deteriorate the situation, if the quality of water is not accorded the investment priority it deserves. The major causes of poor water quality include:

(a) Industrial and municipal effluents It has been estimated that only about 1% of the 975,000 million gallons of wastewater produced annually in Pakistan is treated before disposal. The pollution in the river Ravi, which runs through Lahore, is the highest in the country. None of the cities except Karachi and Islamabad have wastewater treatment facilities and only one of the existing treatment plants is actually working. Thus the problem is inadequate O&M as well as under-investment.

(b) Solid Waste Pakistan generates over 48,000 tonnes of solid waste per day (19,500 tonnes in urban centres) and nearly 50% of the total waste is dumped in low-lying areas, causing contamination of groundwater, pollution of surface water, inadequate sanitation and breeding grounds for insects. Part of the solid waste is dumped into the rivers. The existing financial capacity of the municipalities to properly manage solid waste is about 25%.

In the past, and at present, solid waste management has received a very low priority in Pakistan. With the growth of population and expansion of urbanization, the environmental and health hazards of this neglected problem will intensify to a dangerous degree if action is not taken immediately.

(c) Waterlogging and Salinity As described in Section 10, waterlogging is caused mainly by overuse of irrigation water and inadequate drainage of agricultural land. Over 7 Mha of arable land are affected in Punjab and Sindh and 40,000 ha in NWFP. Despite its severity, its adverse impacts are confined mainly to


agriculture, crop yields being especially affected. Non-agricultural environmental impacts are less significant. In fact, the creation of wetlands resulting from waterlogging can even be regarded as an environmental gain (though an economic loss).

(d) Salt In addition to the massive flow of sediments from the upper catchments, about 33 M tonnes of salt flow through the Indus waters annually. Most of this goes onto the land, as only 8 M tonnes are discharged to the sea. The remaining salt continues to build up in the soils, threatening its productivity. The only sustainable means of disposal is through outfall drains to the sea.

(e) Pesticides For the improvement of crop yields and quality, GOP has encouraged the use of insecticides, especially in the production of cotton, a major export crop. As a result, the use of pesticides increased from 665 tonnes in 1980 to 45,680 tonnes in 1999. However, excessive application of pesticides has caused the prevailing insect species to develop resistance and has resulted in some pollution of surface water and groundwater with nitrate.

12.1.7 Insufficient Enforcement of Environmental Regulations and Standards As noted in Section 12.1.4, the existing body of environmental legislation is reasonably adequate for the purposes of effective environmental protection and management. It is the unsatisfactory application of the laws, not the laws themselves, that is the problem. This is due essentially to the inadequate institutional capacity and funding of the principal agencies responsible for their enforcement, the EPAs and EPD. The fact that the legislation is largely punitive in nature, with an absence of financial assistance or incentives to industries and municipalities for improving effluent quality, exacerbates the enforcement difficulties. Another factor is the limited public interest in or understanding of the water quality problem.

These constraints are interconnected and the full enforcement of legislation will depend on a comprehensive approach these issues. However, the most critical constraint seems to be the institutional and financial capacity of EPAs and other water-related institutions. Lack of


credit for pollution control has been quoted as a reason for not complying with the regulations. Providing financial help, probably in the form of soft loans, in combination with strong penalties, should be the adopted approach; a policy which has worked well elsewhere.

12.1.8 Lack of an Effective Monitoring System The 1997 Act puts the responsibility for establishing a water quality monitoring system on the EPAs. However, various government agencies, including WAPDA, PCRWR, the WASAs and the PHEDs, are presently engaged in water quality measurement, testing and monitoring activities on a periodic basis, to suit their particular mandates. The PCRWR launched a five-year water quality-monitoring program in July 2001, with a budget of Rs 39.6 million, and is reportedly collecting samples from 21 cities, five rivers and 10 reservoirs for water quality analysis.

With the number of institutions involved, the current monitoring activities are fragmented and lack continuity, follow-up and control. The PCRWR programme, when supported by approved water quality standards, adequately trained manpower and laboratory facilities, would serve as a positive step towards developing a comprehensive national water quality monitoring programme. The institutionalisation and effective operation of such a monitoring programme is essential for generating the information required for an effective water pollution control programme.

12.1.9 Inadequate Water Quality Data Related to the above discussion on a monitoring system, there is an acute shortage of data on the quality of water. Data on water quality are scanty, sporadic and limited to a few parameters to respond to the specific needs of the concerned organizations. No regular data are available pertaining to water pollution, either in the rivers, municipal intakes, fluxes into the coastal areas or groundwater. The agencies involved in collecting water quality data do not share data with each other or with the stakeholders. Because of the absence of a national water quality database, access to the relevant information for planning and other purposes is very inadequate.


12.1.10 Coastal Pollution and Degradation of Wetlands The coastal areas and wetlands of Pakistan require fresh water for the survival and conservation of aquatic resources and, in the Indus Delta, the mangrove forests. The availability of sufficient volumes of fresh water of a satisfactory quality to these ecosystems has been reduced by increased diversions for irrigation and increased pollution. Mangrove forests cover an estimated 65, 000 ha of the total coastal area and provide an important breeding ground for fish and shrimp and an important source of fuel wood and storm protection.

12.1.11 Rapid Population Growth The rapid growth of population has been one of the major causes of water and natural resources scarcity and deteriorating water and environmental quality. Without effective reduction of the population growth rate, efforts toward resource management (including water), conservation measures and environment protection activities, will fail. GOP has included population control measures in the Ten Year Perspective Plan. Recent press reports indicate a Government population growth target of 1.9% (present estimate 2.6%) by year 2010. This can be accomplished, as has been shown in many other Asian countries, including Bangladesh.

12.1.12 Public Awareness and Participation There is a need to make the public fully aware of the growing problem of deteriorating water quality and the gap between water demand and availability and the financial and other constraints on improvement. Conservation, financial sustainability, care in the disposal of waste, and population control are all subjects that need to be covered. The public should also be made aware of the social, economic and health consequences of water scarcity and poor water quality and the consequences of inaction.

12.2 Objectives In consideration of the pressing environmental issues identified in above, the overall water-related environmental goal is to help mitigate and reverse the current environmental degradation process resulting from the deterioration of water quality and inappropriate water management. To achieve this goal, the main objectives of the Environmental Strategy are to:


(i) Improve the quality of surface water and groundwater to acceptable standards by 2025;

(ii) Rehabilitate coastal and other wetland areas through better management of freshwater flows to them;

(iii) Reduce soil erosion in the catchments (watersheds) of major storage reservoirs. Watershed management and reforestation activities elsewhere are the responsibility of the agricultural sector rather than the water sector and are therefore not included here.

Measures to combat waterlogging and salinity on agricultural land are covered in Section 10 on Irrigation and Drainage.

Various forms of support are needed to achieve these objectives:

• Administrative and financial commitment by the Government in support of water quality and environmental improvement programmes.

• Identification, rationalization and ranking of priorities and political and financial support for them.

• Full public awareness of current environmental issues, especially water quality and its health and economic implications.

• Promotion of the concept of water as an economic commodity and providing financial incentives to the private sector for industrial pollution control and participation in urban water supply and sanitation provision improvement schemes.

• Institutional reform of water related agencies and establishment of viable institutions fully responsive to the growing needs of water resource development, conservation and environmental protection.

• Promoting water users and private sector participation in water supply, quality improvement and conservation schemes.


12.3 Constraints The following major constraints have been identified as hampering environmental management activities in Pakistan.

(i) Historically, lower priority had been accorded in Pakistan to water quality than water quantity;

(ii) Inadequate institutional capacity to implement effective pollution control;

(iii) Linked with this, insufficient Government funding; (iv) Governance problems hampering the enforcement of

rules and regulations; (v) The existing environmental legislation (1997 Act, 1994

NEQS) is punitive rather than cooperative in nature; (vi) Planning is inadequate and tends to be over-ambitious; (vii) Inadequate stakeholder and private sector participation in

water and environmental activity.

12.4 Proposed Strategy for Environmental Improvement

12.4.1 The Overall Strategy As with the other sub-sectors, the proposed strategy consists of a combination of management/institutional measures and technical measures. In the case of the water-related environment, however, the management measures are much the most important part of the strategy, especially with regard to the development of a more effective system of pollution control. In view of its importance, the proposed development of the use of a system of regulatory and economic instruments for pollution control is described in some detail in Section 12.4.2.

The components of the proposed strategy are as follows:-

Management/Institutional Measures:

(i) Plan and implement a comprehensive National Water Quality Monitoring Programme (also a technical measure).


(ii) Develop and execute a major campaign to raise public awareness of the environment and its problems and to stimulate public interest and participation in environmental management.

(iii) Develop the pollution control approach described in Section 12.4.2, emphasising the municipal and industrial sub-sectors.

(iv) Support and participate in the implementation of the water-related components of the National Environmental Action Plan.

(v) Strengthen and increase the funding to the EPA and EPDs, to enable them to implement and coordinate the overall programme.

Technical Measures

(vi) Support the municipal and industrial wastewater control measures to be implemented under the Water Supply and Sanitation and Industrial Water Supply and Pollution Control Strategies. These include: rehabilitation and operationalisation of the existing treatment plants for industrial and municipal effluents (covered under the urban water supply and sanitation programme) and establishment of new industrial and municipal effluent treatment plants in prioritised areas of the country.

(vii) Improve urban and rural solid waste management, with the existing coverage of 25% being increased to 55% by 2010/11 and 90% by 2025.

(viii) Support the study (undertaken by the proposed Water Resources Apex Body) to determine the volume of Indus flows required downstream of Kotri to ensure the long-term health of the mangrove forests of the Indus Delta and to check saline intrusion. This would be followed by the necessary modifications to Indus water management.

(ix) Implement Phase III of the Tarbela-Mangla Watershed Management Project.

(x) Support the detailed study, described in Section 9.4, for the preparation of a National Industrial Pollution Control


Plan, covering likely future pollution control requirements as well as the clean-up of existing industries.

(xi) Prepare and implement an Integrated Water and Environmental Management Plan for Lahore City and the Ravi River.

(xii) Carry out studies on reducing agro-chemical pollution and on waste minimisation in industry.

An Implementation Plan for the Environment sub-sector is given in Table 12.1.


Immediate and Short Term Medium Term (to 2011) Long Term (to 2025) Plan a comprehensive National Water Quality Monitoring Programme (2003-2004)

Implement the National Water Quality Monitoring Programme (2005-2010)

Monitor, evaluate and improve the National Water Quality Monitoring Programme (2010-2025)

Develop major campaign to raise public awareness of the environment (2003-2004)

Execute the Public Awareness campaign for the environment (2004 – 2007)

Continue a reduced Public Awareness campaign (2008 - 2025)

Support the municipal and industrial wastewater control measures (2003 – 2010)

Improve urban and rural solid waste management, with coverage increasing to 55% (2004 – 2010)

Continue improvement of urban and rural solid waste management, with coverage increasing 90% by 2025.

Support the study to determine the environmental flow requirements of the rivers including Ravi, Sutlej and the Indus, especially downstream of Kotri (2003 - 2004)

Assess the need for soft loans and other financial incentives to industries to comply with EPA effluent disposal regulations (2003)

Determine legislative needs for: regulation of industrial development, enforcement of standards, water abstraction licensing

Enactment of new legislation, where necessary

Implement Phase III of the Tarbela-Mangla Watershed Management Project. (2003)

Support the study for the preparation of a National Industrial Pollution Control Plan (2003)

Table 12.1 Environmental Strategy Interventions


12.5 Cost Estimate A broad estimate of the likely costs of the proposed strategy is shown in Table 12.2. They do not include the costs of the proposed urban and rural sanitation measures (see Sections 7 and 8), National Industrial Pollution Control Action Plan (US$ 3 million), which is covered under the Industrial Water Supply and Pollution Control Strategy in Section 9, the provision of financial incentives and concessionary funding for industries to install effluent treatment (US$ 250 million up to 2025), also covered in Section 9, and the setting up of a water quality improvement programme, including monitoring, which comes under Water Resource Development (Section 6).

Activity Cost ( US$ million)

Strengthening of the EPAs (capital costs) 5.0 Public Environmental Awareness Raising Programme 3.0 Urban Solid Waste Management Improvement 25.0 Tarbela-Mangla Watershed Management Programme III 25.0 Lahore City and Ravi River Integrated Water and Environmental Management Plan

50.0

Studies into Indus flow requirements downstream of Kotri, reducing agro-chemical pollution, industrial waste minimisation etc

5.0

Total 113.0

Table 12.2: Cost Estimate for the Environment Strategy


13 FLOOD PROTECTION


13.1.1 Incidence of Flooding Pakistan has a long history of repeated localized and widespread flooding that has caused loss of life, substantial damage to property and infrastructure and loss of agricultural crops and lands. Despite the construction of reservoirs and major investments in flood protection, there is still a considerable flood hazard. The barrages that occupy a key place in the irrigation economy are at risk when exposed to large floods, as some of the barrages do not have adequate capacity for the passage of major discharges. Also, there are some old structures such as bridges, which cannot pass high magnitude floods, thus raising the flood levels upstream and exacerbating damage. These constraints sometimes require breaching of flood protection bunds that cause flooding in downstream areas.

Much of Pakistan is a flood prone region, with steep upper catchments and the potential for high intensity rainfall. The flood problem has been exacerbated by the progressive denudation of river catchments and the general deterioration of river channels from significantly reduced flows during non-flood seasons because of increased diversion from the rivers. Major floods have occurred in 1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992 and 1995. In 2001, though the country was passing through a severe drought cycle, local flooding in the Leh Nullah caused extensive damage to life and property in Rawalpindi. It is estimated that between 1955 and 2001 direct losses from floods have been of the order of US $10 billion and over 6,000 lives were lost.

The capacities of the dams to attenuate flooding and regulate river flows are being reduced by siltation. Uncompleted or inadequately planned and constructed flood protection works are at risk, as well as the lands they are intended to serve. Flooding mainly impacts on three areas of the country:


(a) The main riverine areas adjacent to the Indus and its tributaries (the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej, and Kabul), where annual floods are used for irrigation purposes and which are heavily populated and suffer catastrophic damage due to high intensity floods;

(b) High torrent affected areas where intense local rainfall on steep, largely denuded mountainsides can cause major flash floods. Such floods cause immense damage due to erosion and inundation of agricultural and populated lands and to communications and urban infrastructure. Large and sudden deposits of sediment from hill torrents near the confluence with major rivers may change hydraulic and morphological conditions locally in the main river, adversely affecting flooding and erosion conditions;

(c) Areas of poor drainage where water ponds in agricultural and urban areas as a result of heavy summer (monsoon) rainfall.

13.1.2 Flood Protection Works Flood protection works in Pakistan usually take the form of:

• River training and flood protection barrages and bridges that usually take the form of guide bunds and spurs;

• Breaching bunds which are utilised when the flood peak exceeds the capacity of barrages;

• Bunds, usually with spurs to constrain the river and prevent overspill onto adjacent lands; and,

• Revetments on riverbanks to protect towns and villages.

The flood problem and the strategy for flood protection vary across Pakistan. Flood protection embankments are constructed where there is a problem of flooding, whereas spurs are constructed to arrest the problem of land erosion. The existing flood management facilities in Pakistan include about 3,700 miles (5,920 km) length of embankments and nearly 800 spurs.


13.1.3 Flood Protection Plans and Projects A comprehensive National Flood Management Plan was prepared in 1978, which contained a phased implementation plan. Phase I was implemented during the period 1978-88 and 350 flood protection schemes were implemented at a cost of Rs 1.73 billion.

The Flood Management Plan was updated and the National Flood Protection Plan-II (NFPP-II) was implemented during the period 1988-98 wherein 170 schemes were completed at a cost of Rs 2.542 billion. During the same period several foreign funded projects, both for flood damage restoration and flood protection, were also implemented, which included:

• 1988 Flood/Rain Damage Restoration Project where 2065 schemes were completed at a cost of Rs 2.3 billion including US $ 200 million provided by ADB.

• Flood Protection Sector Project-I (FPSP-I) - 257 schemes were implemented at a cost of Rs 4.86 billion including US $131 million provided by ADB.

• 1992-94 Flood/Rain Damages Restoration Project- 1980 schemes were completed at a cost of Rs 6.67 billion including US $ 193 provided by IDA, EU, KFW and ADB

Several facilities and services were procured under FPSP-I to improve the flood forecasting and warning capability. As a follow-up, FPSP-II was initiated with the assistance of ADB in order to complete the remaining activities to strengthen the Flood Forecasting and Warning System, undertake left over sub-projects and develop certain new flood protection schemes. The Project aims to reduce damage due to flooding in communities lying along the major and minor rivers of Pakistan. Reduction in flood hazards will protect the poorest segment of the population living in flood prone areas, protect physical infrastructure and improve the areas’ capability for agricultural production and thereby increase farm incomes and employment in these communities. Major components of the Project are:

• policy improvement and capacity building for planning, design, and implementation of flood protection works;


• improvement of flood forecasting, warning, and preparedness; and

• implementation of subprojects of flood protection works.

However, FPSP-II has encountered a major delay of about 55 %. At the time of writing, physical progress is 3%; cumulative contract awards are 14%, and cumulative disbursement only 1%. The total cost of the Project is proposed to be reduced by reducing the scope of physical flood protection works and downsizing the policy improvement and capacity building component. At this time it appears that a major proportion of non-physical interventions, including a number of studies, may be dropped from the project, but the final scope of the FPSP-II is still being discussed by the Government and ADB.

It was anticipated that the FPSP-II would be completed by the middle of 2005. After the completion of FPSP-II a third phase of the Project was being considered to be undertaken between 2006 and 2011 and Phase IV may possibly be undertaken between 2012 and 2017 to carryout the remaining works in this sub sector.

13.2 Objectives The objectives for flood protection, as based on the Draft National Water Policy are to:

(i) Place priority for flood protection on areas of major human habitation and economic importance;

(ii) Prepare flood and drought management strategies, especially for major cities, key secondary cities and towns and major infrastructure;

(iii) Promote the delineation of Flood Risk Planning and Regulatory Zones to be adopted by all agencies as part of the planning process and for them to:

• identify consistent standards of service for differing land uses • prioritise areas for flood protection • prepare plans in terms of areas for full, appropriate and non-

structural measures


• regulate land use and development of floodplains. • Develop flood forecasting, warning and preparedness strategies

for flood prone areas. • Implement effective recovery of operating and maintenance costs

from beneficiaries of urban flood alleviation and stormwater drainage schemes.

Essentially, most of the above objectives would be covered by the Flood Protection Sector Project II and possibly FPSP-III & IV covering most of the period of this Strategy. It would be pointless to propose work of much the same type as is contained in FPSP-II and the studies included in the Project. Hence, the priority objective should be to restart FPSP-II and continue with the two follow on projects.

13.3 Constraints The current drought and associated low flood risk may have caused complacency on flooding issues and has contributed to the slow implementation of the Flood Protection Sector Project-II, which contains most of the works and supporting activities needed for the sub-sector for the foreseeable future. Restructuring and bringing this project back on track is the key need in the flood protection sub-sector.

13.4 Proposed Sub-Sectoral Strategy Restart the Flood Protection Sector Project-II, including non-physical works and studies, which are important to a holistic approach to flood protection. FPSP-II should be put back on track and finished. An FPSP-III has been considered by the provinces and it has been included as part of the MTIP.


13.5 Cost Estimate The cost estimate for flood protection includes the remainder of FPSP-II, plus FPSP-III and FPSP-IV, as shown in Table 13.

Project Status Cost (MUS$)

FPSP – II ongoing 93FPSP – II planned 158FPSP – IV planned 167Total MUS$ 418

Table 13.2: Cost Estimate for the Flood Protection Sub-Sector


14 SUPPORTING MEASURES AND ACTIVITIES

14.1 Institutional Development Institutional arrangements and capacity are critical factors affecting Pakistan’s water sector performance and development. Management deficiencies, in the broadest sense, have been the most important constraint hindering progress in recent years.

Proposed institutional developments within the eight water sub-sectors are described in the sub-sectoral strategies in Sections 6 to 13. The purpose of the present section is mainly to consider institutional development for the water sector as a whole.

14.1.1 Institutional Framework and Arrangements The principal components of the water sector’s institutional framework are the Federal Government and its constituent Ministries and other entities, the four provincial governments and their departments and other bodies, the five city WASAs (Water and Sanitation Agencies) and the Karachi Water and Sewerage Board (KWSB) and, to a limited extent as yet, NGOs and community-based and other water user organizations. At present, the private sector has no formal representation within this framework.

Two major recent institutional changes are the 2001 Devolution Plan and the reforms in the irrigation and drainage sub-sector which are to take place under the National Drainage Programme and the On Farm Water Management Project.

As it currently stands, the principal direct impact of the Devolution Plan on the water sector is the decentralisation of public sector water supply and sanitation from the provincial level to the district level. The former Public Health Engineering Departments have been reduced or even dissolved at the provincial level. There is some concern that the district authorities will lack the technical and managerial skills needed to support development of rural water supply and sanitation, it is hoped that these


problems will be worked out as district administration comes to grips with their new responsibilities.

Irrigation, drainage and flood control are not directly affected by the Devolution Plan. The irrigation and drainage reforms described in Section 10 will, however, change the institutional framework by decentralizing irrigation management in that sub-sector. Under the National Drainage Programme Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authorities (PIDAs) are to replace Provincial Irrigation Departments at the provincial level, with Area Water Boards (AWBs) created at the canal command level and Farmer Organisations (FOs) irrigation minor level. Under the On Farm Water Management Project, Water User Associations are to be formed at the watercourse level. With the exception of Sindh, who are making progress in the OFWM Project, these irrigation reforms are stalled because the provincial irrigation departments are not in favour of them.

Although steps are being taken to increase stakeholder participation (see Section 14.1.3), it remains inadequate. This is not a problem of the sector’s institutional framework or structure but is indicative of general attitudes toward public interest in water related matters.

There remains disagreement among the provinces on developing large water resources projects. The minimum escapage needs downstream of Kotri is a continuing dispute. Resolution of these disputes is essential if any proposed water sector development strategy is to achieve full success.

The water sector institutional framework itself is reasonably good and overlap of functions between agencies is not substantial. Figure 14.1 shows the relationship of the relevant institutions with a role in water management and water resources development in Pakistan.


Figure 14.1: Structure of the Institutions Involved in Water Resources Development

Ministry of Water and Power

Minister

Secretary

Federal Flood Commission /

Chief Engineering

Advisor

WAPDA

Department of Agriculture

Ministry of Agriculture, Food & Livestock

IRSA

Planning Commission

Minister

Deputy Chairman

Chairman P&D / Additional Chief Secretary

Section Chiefs Irrigation Department

PIDA AWBs & FOs

Minister

Federal

Planning & Development

Minister

Secretary

Irrigation Agriculture

Minister

Secretary

Minister

Secretary

Section Chiefs

KESC

Provincial

Secretary

Secretary


The significant omission is the lack of an overseeing, or Apex Body with sufficient political clout to effectively implement national water sector policy and provide overall direction and coordination at the political level. A proposal to set up such a body is presented below.

Although the institutional framework is reasonably satisfactory, the water sector’s institutional capacity and effectiveness are not. Most of the underlying weaknesses affect the public sector as a whole and are to a large extent outside the control of the water sector. Government staff salaries and conditions are insufficient to provide adequate staff incentives and motivation. Political interference and lack of good governance in Pakistan affect all parts of the country’s public sector.

It will take time, and firm government action, to alleviate such constraints. For water sector planning an important implication is that private sector and stakeholder participation need to be maximised, in order to reduce the extent of public sector involvement and the burden on its limited management capacity. This is an essential part of the proposed strategy. Other means of improving management performance, such as raising government salaries and increasing inter-provincial cooperation, are largely outside the water sector’s control.

In view of the above, the main institutional emphasis in the Strategy proposals has been on the reforms and improvements, which should be made at the sub-sectoral level. These are discussed in Sections 6 to 13 above. At the level of ensuring provision of water for the water sector as a whole, the principal requirement is for a Water Resources Apex Body with sufficient authority to effectively implement national water sector policy and provide overall direction and co-ordination at the political level.

14.1.2 Proposal for a Water Resources Apex Body Concern has been widely expressed that there are already enough organisations operating in the water sector and forming yet another in the form of an Apex Body should be avoided. While this view has considerable merit, a clear gap does exist at the top level of the water sector’s institutional framework, which the proposed Apex Body and support unit would fill.


A key consideration is that Pakistan is entering a new regime of water scarcity, one that requires a new approach to planning and managing the nation’s water resources for the benefit of all water sub-sectors. The NWC and its technical secretariat in MWP would fulfil this role as well as maintaining an information system and ensuring public awareness of water issues. In addition, it would work to resolve and overcome long-standing interprovincial disputes, which have held back the development of the nation’s water resources.

The importance of a Water Resources Apex Body in effective management and development of the water sector has become more strongly recognised in the last decade or so. Such bodies have been set up in many countries. Asian examples include the inter-ministerial National Water Resources Council in Bangladesh (this performed a vital role in the recent finalisation of the country’s National Water Development Strategy and National Water Management Plan), the National Water Resources Committee in Thailand, and the National Water Resources Council in Vietnam.

These Apex Bodies perform a vital role in effective water management at the national level in their respective countries. They are especially useful where there is strong regional (Provincial, State, etc.) competition for water, public funding and other resources and where difficult decisions on inter-regional allocations and priorities have to be made and implemented.

A key to the success of the Apex Body is to separate planning and development activities. Recognising the concerns over new institutions, the proposed Apex Body is an expansion of responsibilities of the Ministry of Water and Power supporting a proposed National Water Council (NWC).

The NWC will be established to lead water planning, development and management in Pakistan. The Council will be inter-ministerial and inter-provincial in its focus and mandate. The chair of the Council would be the Prime Minister, with members likely consisting of the Ministers of: Water and Power, Food and Agriculture and Environment, plus: Secretary, Water and Power, Secretary Finance, Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, the Chief Ministers of the four provinces, with


FATA, Northern Areas and AJK. The Chief Engineering Advisor, MWP would be the Member Secretary.

The National Water Council will be supported by an Apex Body (a technical secretariat) which would be established within the Ministry of Water and Power (MWP). This will initially require a change in the charter of the MWP, so that it would include all sub-sectors, plus water resources development, not just irrigation, hydropower and flooding as it does now.

The Apex Body within the MWP will require extensive capacity building as its new mandate will be an extension of current activities and the staffing levels are currently too low to carry out the fairly large task of supporting the NWC in its role of decision making for the whole of the water sector.

As proposed in Section 6 on Water Resources Development, a first task of the Apex Body would be to prepare an Integrated Water Resources Master Plan to determine the needs and development priorities for conservation, storage, watershed management and water resources development as a whole.

14.1.3 Stakeholder Participation In Pakistan stakeholder participation in public sector irrigation and drainage activities was initiated in the 1970s, with the formation of Water User Associations (WUAs) under donor-funded On-Farm Water Management (OFWM) projects. Sustainability proved to be low, because most WUAs essentially ceased operation once the watercourse improvement works were completed. A more radical innovation began in the mid-1990s. Under its policy of increased stakeholder participation in irrigation and drainage development and O&M the government decided in 1995 to decentralize irrigation and drainage O&M. This change was similar to the Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM) and Irrigation Management Transfer (IMT) policies now being followed in many countries.

The reforms aim at the establishment of autonomous organizations at the level of the four provinces, 43 canal systems and at distributary and minor canal level. Implementation progress has so far been slow and the


reforms are still at an initial and fragile stage. At this stage it is uncertain how the programme will proceed. Despite the many claims made for its success, international experience with Irrigation Management Transfer/Participation Irrigation Management has been mixed. In developing countries, in particular, the actual progress achieved has often been much below expectations and inadequate maintenance funding continued to be a problem.

For Pakistan the implication is that the degree of management handover achieved in the future may turn out to be considerably less than intended, especially with regard to funding. Although some responsibilities will probably be successfully devolved, government is likely to continue to be a major partner in irrigation management, especially given the huge scale of the irrigation infrastructure by world standards.

More progress in stakeholder participation has been made in the rural water supply and sanitation sub-sector, though not in the urban areas. The principles and practices of user participation in rural water supply and sanitation are now becoming well established. Its role in urban water supply and sanitation is likely to remain limited, however, because urban systems lend themselves better than rural systems to operation on commercial lines. This situation is reflected in the strategy proposals made in Sections 7 and 8 on the urban and rural water supply and sanitation sub-sectors.

14.2 The Legal Framework Although water is a federal concern in Pakistan, with the exception of national distribution of water through the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) and planning and development of large scale, nationally important water projects, the provinces mainly administer the water sector. There are several laws and regulations enacted to manage the water sector. This body of law and regulations generally provides the necessary authority and powers. Provincial Irrigation Development Authority (PIDA) Acts in 1997 provided the legal basis for the institutional reforms mentioned above.

The legal framework for private sector participation is discussed in Section 14.3. The existing legal framework for environmental protection


and management is reasonably adequate, although some provisions in the various regulations are insufficiently specific and detailed. They also tend to be too punitive in tone, with insufficient emphasis on incentives and a partnership approach. National Environmental Quality Standards (NEQS), enacted in 1993, define allowable limits for 32 pollutants in effluents and industrial discharges, along with other limits related to industrial and vehicular air emissions. Provincial EPAs/EPD are responsible for monitoring and implementing the NEQS. Environmental Courts to deal with pollution cases have been set up in Karachi and Lahore. Environmental assessment regulations enacted in 1992 elaborate the modalities and procedures for EIAs (environmental impact assessments) and IEEs (Initial Environmental Examination). As yet, the enforcement of environmental regulations has been ineffective.

A particular gap in the water sector’s legal base is the lack of a national water code or National Water Resources Act, such as that which exists in Nepal and is currently been finalized in Bangladesh. Once the National Water Policy (NWPo) has been finalized and approved, a National Water Resources Act will need to be drawn up to encompass all the NWPo provisions and provide a single set of rules and regulations for the nation’s future water management. Such an Act or Code is normally regarded as essential for effective national water management.

14.3 Private Sector Participation Apart from the spectacular irrigation tubewell expansion that has taken place over the past 40 years, there has been relatively little private sector participation (PSP) or investment in water sector development activities. A major strategy objective is to broaden the scope and coverage of PSP, urban water supply and sanitation and hydropower being the main areas of opportunity. PSP is being promoted in order to reduce the pressure on the Government’s capital and recurrent budget, increase access to private sector capital resources and management expertise, and improve sector efficiency and service delivery.

Much of the institutional and legal framework required to facilitate corporate PSP (as distinct from small-scale PSP such as the sinking of irrigation tubewells) is already in place. Measures to encourage power generation PSP started as long ago as 1985. A Privatisation Commission is in operation and, in order to stimulate the PSP process, a


Ministry of Privatisation was created in November 2000. Progress has been greatest in the power sector, with various institutional and legal initiatives. As a result, large investments have been made in private thermal power generation by foreign and local investors. No private investments have been made in hydropower, however, because of the perceived risks. Moreover, the investment climate has been soured by the HUBCO and KAPCO disputes and general governance problem.

Little has yet been achieved in water supply and sanitation. Privatisation of KWSB and WASA operations has been hampered by the poor state of the existing infrastructure, political opposition and the fact that tariff levels and collection efficiencies would have to be considerably increased to make PSP attractive to investors. Implementation of a KWSB Privatisation programme proposed in a 1997/98 feasibility study has been on hold for several years, for economic and political reasons. At present, the Privatisation Commission is not pursuing any privatisations in the water supply and sanitation sub-sector.

Specific measures, which would be desirable for the PSP process in the water sector, include:

Establishment of an independent regulatory body for the water supply and sanitation sub-sector

Such bodies have been set up for the water supply, electricity and telecom sectors in many countries. Its purpose would be to control monopolistic tendencies, improve economic efficiency by encouraging natural monopolies to perform at a socially optimal level, and maintain a balance between the potentially competing interests of government, regulated utilities and consumers. Setting up such a body would, however, only be justified if it appeared that PSP was going to develop on a large scale. Annex 2 reviews international experience with water sector regulation and outlines the steps, which would be needed to set up the necessary body.

Establishment of a line of credit to support worthwhile PSP projects

A good example is the Bangladesh World Bank-funded Private Sector Infrastructure Development Project, which started operation in 1999 with


US$ 250 M of funding. Its Infrastructure Investment Facilitation Centre promotes and facilitates PSP projects in energy, water supply, urban environmental services, ports and toll roads. PSIDP loans cover up to 40% of project costs, the sponsors themselves having to fund up to 20% of costs from their own resources.

Water and Environment Funds (WEFs)

These might be set up to offer a suitable financial vehicle to channel capital resources into specific areas of the water sector which may require grants, subsidies or soft loans. Examples of possible activities to be funded include community-based initiatives in rural and peri-urban areas (water supply, sanitation and drainage), private sector initiatives in rural and peri-urban areas (water supply and sanitation), and industrial wastewater treatment and control in urban areas. WEFs operate successfully in many countries. International experience indicates that the fund(s) have to be operated in an independent and transparent manner.

From the viewpoint of future Government capital budgeting, little reliance should be placed at this time on private investment replacing public investment in urban water supply and sanitation on a large scale, desirable though this may be. Even when the investment climate does improve, it may prove difficult to attract foreign investment into the sector. Urban water supply and sanitation is often not an attractive area for private investment. International experience reported by the World Bank is that it is characterised by high capital intensity and long payback periods, and historically low levels of cost recovery. Replacement of public sector management by private sector management is by no means certain to eliminate the cost recovery problem. The above qualifications may be less relevant for smaller-scale investments in towns rather than cities, which have scope for domestic rather than foreign investors. This is probably the most promising area of potential for corporate PSP in urban water supply and sanitation. Its prospects should therefore be investigated.

Though a responsibility of the water sector increased PSP in agricultural supporting services such as seed production and distribution, research


and the dissemination of technology improvements could make an important contribution to agricultural growth.

14.4 Regulatory and Economic Instruments for Pollution Control and Environmental Management Section 9 presents a proposed strategy for future industrial pollution control, including proposals for an appropriate package of regulatory and economic instruments; these would cover urban (municipal) as well as industrial wastewater pollution. As noted therein and in Section 12, the appropriate policy, institutional and legal framework for effective water pollution control is already in place to a considerable extent. Therefore, the crucial issues for the future will be effective implementation and sustained enforcement. In this context, the use and application of economic instruments will be an important factor in the control and reduction of water pollution from municipal and industrial sources. It is important that the regulatory authorities assert the principle of ‘the polluter pays’. More details of the options available are given in Annex 4.

14.5 Regulation For Water Resources Management As explained in Annex 4, in Pakistan the main potential requirement for regulation is for groundwater (GW) abstraction in areas where GW mining (pumping in excess of recharge) is taking place or where there is a significant danger of GW salinisation if existing levels of abstraction continue. The only situation where SW regulation might be necessary is on the streams and rivers of northern Pakistan, but abstractions there are generally on a relatively small scale and regulation is undertaken at the local level mainly by the communities involved.

In some circles there is an expressed need for GW regulation. GW regulation is not, however, a task to be undertaken lightly. It is costly and difficult to implement effectively. International experience shows that GW regulation is much more difficult to achieve than surface water (SW) regulation. A 1997 World Bank review of experience of GW in rural development stated, “regulation is always problematic, sometimes unenforceable”; there are “very few examples of best practice”; “the few success stories appear to be at the urban/rural interface.” Reasons include the strong pressures for continued resource exploitation, the inherent uncertainties concerning GW data and aquifer behaviour and, in many countries including Pakistan, very large numbers of small-scale


users (for example, over 500,000 private irrigation tubewells). GW regulation should be restricted to areas where there is a particular and identifiable problem, such as in Balochistan.

14.6 Cost Recovery and Demand Management 14.6.1 General

In common with the rest of South Asia and much of the developing world, inadequate cost recovery is one of the most serious constraints facing Pakistan’s public sector. Since Government has insufficient funds to make up the gap between what is required for satisfactory recurrent costs and what is recovered from users, the result is a progressive deterioration of the asset base and its performance and quality of service. Long-term sustainability is lacking.

Of the water sub-sectors, the problem is worst with irrigation and drainage and urban water supply and sanitation. In the urban sub-sector tariffs have remained nearly constant despite significant increases in electricity charges, making the cost of electricity the largest portion of operations costs. The reaction has been to blame WAPDA for their increasing charges, rather than to accept that tariffs need to increase in line with costs.

In the irrigation sub-sector a flat rate (fixed) electricity charge for electric tubewells has been introduced. This encourages the wasteful use of energy and of water. As about 80% of irrigation tubewells are diesel rather than electric-powered, however, the overall impact on electricity cost recovery is limited.

With regard to flood protection, in most countries cost recovery is not attempted, on the grounds that flood protection is a public good and the beneficiaries are anyway difficult to identify with any precision. Thus in Bangladesh’s National Water Policy, for example, it is specifically stated that no charges will be levied on flood control and drainage schemes, whereas irrigation O&M costs are to be recovered from the users

A major improvement in public sector cost recovery is clearly required, as is widely recognised in Pakistan, and is an essential component of the proposed Strategy. From the viewpoint of user payment capacity, and thus social welfare, full OMR cost recovery is certainly achievable


for canal irrigation and water supply and sanitation, because OMR costs are modest. This is less true of sub-surface drainage, the costs of which are much higher than for irrigation. Cost recovery in each water sub-sector is discussed below.

14.6.2 Irrigation Cost Recovery Historically, development of the canal irrigation schemes of the Indus Basin was based on full OMR cost recovery, and there was even an element of capital cost recovery in the ‘abiana’ (irrigation water rate). This was possible because the capital and recurrent costs of irrigation on the huge flat alluvial plains of the Basin are comparatively low (e.g. the OMR cost of under Rs 700 (US$ 12) per acre (Rs 1,700 (US$ 30)/ha) reported for the Punjab schemes). Farmers’ incomes and repayment capacity were sufficient to enable at least O&M costs to be recovered in full. The charging system was, and remains, practical and fair. It is a crop area-based system, with different rates per crop acre for different crops, so that farmers are charged on the areas of crop they actually grow. Amongst other things, this enables some account to be taken of each crops’ typical level of water use. The system could, however, be simplified by reducing the number of crop categories.

Reportedly, full O&M costs continued to be recovered until at least the mid-1970s. Since then, however, the situation has deteriorated. The assessment made during the preparation of the Ten Year Perspective Plan indicated that, during the last 10 years, the average annual expenditure in the irrigated agriculture sub-sector was 28% short of the O&M requirements and the shortfall between O&M expenditure and the revenue actually collected was 72%.

Political and governance factors are the underlying causes of the deterioration in the country’s water sector cost recovery performance. The specific reasons have been the failure to raise abiana rates in line with inflation, and inadequate abiana collection efficiency (the collection rates achieved). Whilst in the Punjab, for example, in 1960s and the years following 1992/93 the increases in abiana charges exceeded inflation rates, in the 1970s and 1980s, generally a period of high inflation, they were raised only three times. As a result, between 1975/76 and 1999/00, abiana rates rose by 439% whereas prices rose by a total of 641%, due to inflation.


Despite the deterioration over the past three decades there is no reason why Pakistan should not return to a situation of full irrigation OMR cost recovery, and thus financial and technical sustainability. This should be a major strategy objective. Given the low OMR costs, the generally adequate farmer repayment capacity, and the reasonable irrigation charging system, all that is required is the political will to raise charges to the necessary level and an improvement in the provincial irrigation and drainage authorities’ assessment and collection efficiency.

Essentially, what is needed is a return to the levels of performance of the 1960s and before, which is not an unreasonable target. If successful, the recent institutional reforms should assist this process. In the few FOs (Farmer Organisations), which have been formed it is reported that revenue collection rates have increased to 60-80% of the assessment. Though still too low, it shows that increasing collection rates is possible.

14.6.3 Drainage Cost Recovery Drainage cost recovery is a more difficult problem for two reasons. First, farmers are generally less willing to pay drainage charges, because the benefits of drainage are less obvious than those of irrigation and they vary over even quite small areas. Second, drainage costs are considerably higher, because most drainage is sub-surface and involves pumping. In 1991/92 the OMR cost of the LBOD drainage system in Sindh was estimated to be US$ 43/ha, which is equivalent to some Rs 2,300/ha (Rs 920/acre) at 2000/01 prices.

There are no separate drainage charges in Punjab and NWFP, but Sindh applies a separate Drainage Cess. In 1994 it was Rs 24 /acre (Rs 59/ha), only a fraction of the real costs of drainage OMR. Incorporation of surface drainage costs into the abiana rates is reasonable because the costs of surface drainage are low. For sub-surface drainage, however, a separate drainage cess is desirable on economic efficiency grounds, the beneficiaries of the drainage paying for its costs. A rationalisation of the drainage cost recovery system by the provincial authorities and other stakeholders (e.g. the Area Water Boards, if these are established successfully) is clearly required.


14.6.4 Water Supply and Sanitation Cost Recovery With regard to rural water supply and sanitation (WSS), Government policy is now to hand over to users all schemes, which are in reasonable working order. So far, 39% of existing schemes have been handed over. Most new schemes, such as those under the ADB Punjab Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project, are based on community participation from the outset, with full turnover of completed systems. Cost recovery for government rural water supply will eventually cease to be an issue. Sustainability could become a concern, however, if user organisations do not spend enough on maintenance, a situation which has already arisen in many rural water supply schemes in Pakistan.

In contrast to the above, urban water supply and sanitation cost recovery is a major issue. A WRSS analysis of the situation of the major cities (those with WASAs) showed that per capita O&M costs ranged from Rs 156 to Rs 378 and that only one of the six cities analysed (Karachi) was recovering its O&M costs, and even it did not recover other recurrent costs. The deficit of revenues as a proportion of O&M costs ranged from 13% to 42% and averaged 30%. No funds were being accumulated for asset renewal (depreciation) or for the recovery of past capital investment. The financial situation of the country’s public sector urban water supply and sanitation agencies is clearly dire.

Except in Lahore, where 130,000 of the existing 440,000 connections are already metered, charges are normally levied on a flat rate rather than on a volumetric basis, with rates for connection being banded according to house size (floor area). This banding enables some account to be taken of household income and water consumption level. The average domestic water rate per household is Rs 105-130 (US$ 1.75-2.17) per month. Based on WRSS estimates, this is equivalent to about 10-12 US cents (Rs 6-7) per cubic metre.

WRSS estimates, based on the common international affordability yardstick that the ceiling for charges is 5% of the average monthly income of the lowest quartile of households, indicate that affordability is sufficient to allow these charges to be to an average of Rs 200-250 per household. There is thus no reason why the full financial sustainability of city water supply and sanitation services cannot be achieved. As with irrigation and drainage, the key requirements for the Strategy are the


necessary political will to raise charges to realistic levels and the improvement in management efficiency required to enable them to be applied effectively.

The cost recovery situation in the towns and smaller cities is generally worse than in the major cities. Until recently, many financed part of their water supply and sanitation O&M costs from local taxes (mainly octroi). The recent abolition of octroi is thus a serious concern, even though the Federal government has now agreed to provide block grants to make up the loss in octroi revenues. WSS cost recovery and sustainability in the towns and smaller cities should therefore be given particular attention in the implementation of the Strategy.

14.6.5 Demand Management Demand management has been given a low priority in Pakistan as, until fairly recently, there was considered to be relative abundance of water. For irrigation, volumetric charging is the ideal means of demand management but is very difficult to monitor and costly to implement. Even high income countries have adopted it to only a limited extent. Pakistan’s crop area-based irrigation water charging system does offer a practicable means of charging farmers on the basis of water used, although the crop abiana rates are not set on this basis. Research currently being undertaken with DFID (the UK Department for International Development) funding indicates, however, that even high levels of crop water charges are unlikely to influence water use substantially. To have much impact on water use they would need to be raised to levels far above typical irrigation scheme OMR costs, which would not be socially or politically acceptable.

For the future, therefore, raising water charges would not appear to be the best option for demand management (though still a valid approach to improving financial sustainability of the irrigation systems). Farmer education, especially in saline groundwater areas where overuse of water is a real loss to the system, is highly recommended. Improving equity within the irrigation system, where top end users overuse water at the expense of tail end users, is also a sound demand management policy.


In the domestic water sub-sector, metering is the best form of demand management and its extension is already government policy, despite the low coverage of metering. All cities meter industrial and commercial supplies but, to date, only Lahore WASA has adopted domestic water supply metering to any large extent. It is now extending metering to most of its domestic consumers, at an estimated cost of Rs 2,000 (US$ 33) per household connection. At present, however, the applicability of metering to other towns and cities is limited by the fact that metering is only feasible where intermittent water supply is practised. Where there is a supply for only a few hours per day, as is the case for most cities and towns other than Lahore, meters cannot work properly. Though clearly desirable, metering thus has limited applicability until the much-needed upgrading of urban water supply performance proposed in Section 7 takes place.

14.7 Research and Information Management Meteorological data, river flow data at some strategic points, canal offtake and flow data are reasonable, though not easily available to those analysing the water situation in Pakistan. The monitoring network should be upgraded and extended and there are steps already being taken in this regard. The most serious gap in the national water information base is that of water quality. Monitoring of water quality is rarely done and there are very few testing labs available for analysis. Groundwater abstraction data is also lacking. There is also only limited information available on water table depths and groundwater salinity.

There is no information system to collate and manage the water related data and development of a Management Information System should be addressed as a priority. Good, reliable information is the foundation of good water management. Developing an MIS is proposed in this Strategy and an allocation for it has been included in the MTIP.

Pakistan has a number of national and provincial research organizations conducting water-related research, and the research base is reasonably adequate. The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) is the principal such organization at the federal level; it includes the Drainage and Research Institute of Pakistan (DRIP). In addition to its own research work the PCRWR maintains an information system on research being undertaken in or related to Pakistan as well as


a database of professionals working in the field. There are various other organisations conducting water-related research and agricultural, economic and social research.

In general, the water sector’s research base is adequate to meet the sector’s needs, although dissemination of research results is often ineffective, as is the case in many countries. While outside the scope of the water sector, agricultural research needs to be improved and funding for it raised to previous levels.

14.8 Media and Awareness Raising There are many areas where the public sector can beneficially support development by keeping people informed and raising their awareness of water sector issues. These include:

• Development of public understanding water resources health, social and environmental issues, and the opportunities and services provided by both public and private sectors to help resolve problems.

• Stimulation of market demand for particular services, such as safe piped water and improved sanitation.

• Dissemination of information to suppliers about market opportunities, appropriate technologies and the outcome of publicly funded research.

• Keeping people informed about new policies, laws and regulations, development plans, initiatives and achievements and, where appropriate, making clear those areas where Government intervention is being withdrawn.

In recent decades, with the rise in literacy and expansion of mass communications in South Asia, increasing use has been made of various media to promote awareness of Government programmes, development opportunities and technological innovations. Advertising agencies have sprung up to cater for the private sector’s desire to promote ever-increasing ranges of products on the domestic market.

Awareness raising will be particularly important for pollution control. Government agencies often lack the resources and capability to enforce


standards. In such circumstances public pressure can be the most effective means. In India many of the State Pollution Control Boards have been found to be ineffective at enforcement, and NGOs, the Press and other elements of civil society have been the main forces combating pollution. Pollution control in Pakistan is unlikely to be effective without:

(i) considerably increased public awareness of environmental issues and how they affect people’s lives and livelihoods;

(ii) the development of the means for organizations and individuals to take effective actions over environmental issues (i.e. to empower affected parties); and

Mass awareness technologies would include radio, television, websites, newspaper articles and campaigns, cinema advertising, promotional videos, information centres, rural and urban, trade fairs, newsletters, posters and leaflet campaigns and extension activities (mainly through the Department of Agricultural Extension). Cost-effectiveness in outreach will, of course, be an important consideration. For example, radio is a relatively cheap form of mass communication.

Awareness raising should form an integral part of Government efforts to improve water management and service provision, stakeholder participation and pollution control. The proposed Water Resources Apex Body should take the lead creating awareness about for water resources and general water sector concerns. The EPA should lead the public awareness campaign for environmental, especially water quality, matters. Public Health Engineering Departments or other provincial agencies (as many PHEDs are now disbanded) should implement the public awareness programmes for public health as it relates to domestic water supply and sanitation. These have all been recommended and proposed within their respective sub-sectoral Sections (Sections 7, 8 and 12, respectively).

17/10/2002 Volume4DetStrFormAnnexes 249

ANNEXES

Contents 1 Annex 1: Study Terms of Reference 250

2 Annex 2: Considerations for Private Sector Participation in Urban Water Supply & Sanitation in Pakistan 256 2.1 Lessons from KWSB 256 2.2 Considerations for Private Sector Participation 258

3 Annex 3: Regulatory Frameworks for Private Sector Participation in the Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Sub-Sector 260 3.1 General 260 3.2 International Experience 262

4 Annex 4: Private Sector Participation in the Power Sector in Pakistan 269 4.1 Background 269 4.2 Current Situation 270

5 Annex 5: Regulatory and Economic Instruments for Pollution Control 273 5.1 The International Picture and Lessons Learned 273 5.2 The Need for Pollution Control Economic Instruments 275 5.3 Economic Instrument Options for Pollution Control 275


1 Annex 1: Study Terms of Reference

1. The technical assistance (TA) comprises development of a national water sector profile (NWSP) for Pakistan, a water sector strategy (WSS) and a medium-term investment plan (MTIP) to support rural development. The consultants will liaise closely with sector studies under the National Drainage Program (NDP) and studies under Loan No. 1578-PAK: Second Flood Protection (Sector) Project.

A. National Water Sector Profile

2. The consultants will initiate a participatory process with provincial and federal agencies to prepare a NWSP for Pakistan based on the standard format developed by the Bank. Working groups within each province and at the federal level will be established to work with the consultants comprising representatives of provincial agencies (planning, agriculture, irrigation, water supply, environment), water users, nongovemment organizations, women’s groups, and academia as appropriate. A consolidated NWSP will be drafted by the consultants on the basis of the provincial and federal contributions. The profile will:

(i) present the goals of each water subsector; (ii) describe the current status of each water subsector,

including land and water resources, water rights, system infrastructure, and policy and institutional frameworks;

(iii) identify the implications of the current development approaches and allocation policy on future growth;

(iv) present demand and supply projections over the next 20 years based on a range of economic and social development scenarios;

(v) analyze emerging areas of competition and conflict between water subsectors;

(vi) review the strategy and development focus of other aid agencies and their proposed programs; and

(vii) summarize the main issues to be addressed under a WSS for the period until 2005.


3. The NWSP will be based mainly on secondary data and draw extensively on wide-ranging material available within each subsector. As a starting point for the WSS, the planning directions of the 1991 Water Sector Investment and Planning Study and German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) sponsored power optimization study will be reviewed and updated based on a recognition of prevailing economic development plans and pressures, and on the recent policy and institutional reforms adopted under the NDP.

4. During preparation of the profile a number of emerging issues will be analyzed and their influence on the attainment of national development goals identified. Reference should be made to completed and ongoing studies that cover individual aspects of the overall water sector, including a background paper on agriculture water resources’ the Water Apportionment Accord, the Bank-supported environmental assessment, planning studies for urban water supply and sanitation, NDP sector studies, preparatory work undertaken for the Private Sector Groundwater Development Project, Second Flood Protection (Sector) Project (pars. 1), and the United Nations Development Programme-supported program on integrated water resources management, hydropower studies, pilot projects for establishing farmer organizations, and other ongoing projects. Specific elements to be covered include:

(i) a review of urban water and sanitation investment plans and water demand based on alternative development scenarios including the influence of privatization

(ii) the extent to which future urbanization and industrialization will influence the quantity and quality of water available for other sectors;

(iii) a review of the rural water supply subsector covering availability and access to safe water and the extent of competition with groundwater use for agriculture;

(iv) the extent of health implications of poor quality water supply and sanitation and the effectiveness of environmental protection mechanisms;

(v) a review of operational plans for hydropower development and the influences (positive and negative) that these place on water availability for other sectors;


(vi) quantification of past growth rates in agriculture, the sources of growth and the relationship between irrigation reform and agricultural growth;

(vii) quantification of the impacts of declining storage capacity, increasing competition for water and increasing salinization on overall agricultural production and the ability of future improvements in irrigation efficiency, alternative cropping patterns, or increased storage to meet national development goals;

(viii) the linkages between investments in the rural water sector on poverty, assessment of distributional effects of past investment programs and analysis of the extent to which proposed programs of institutional reform and infrastructure development address concerns of poverty reduction and social welfare;

(ix) a preliminary needs assessment of the main and link canal levels of the irrigation and drainage system and preliminary estimation of investment levels required to meet agricultural development targets (to be conducted by the provincial authorities based on a framework developed by the consultants);

(x) preliminary estimates of drainage requirements under a range of future development scenarios, the extent to which these are expected to be feasible and the potential for local drainage solutions;

(xi) examination of the water rights and priorities and procedures for intersectoral allocation of water resources;

(xii) responsiveness to annual variations in climate and the effectiveness of current systems of water management at macro and micro levels of the system, including implications of drainage reuse;

(xiii) the nature, causes, and impact of watershed degradation; (xiv) proposals for improving service delivery and cost

recovery in both urban and rural water sectors; and (xv) a review of the role, relevance, and effectiveness of

existing institutional arrangements for research, monitoring, and evaluation and their role in development and management.


5. The consultants will organize a two-day national workshop of senior provincial and federal policy makers to review the draft version of the profile and formulate recommendations and basic guiding principles for developing an integrated approach to land and water resources management. Following the workshop, the NWSP will be revised and incorporated into the draft final report.

B. Water Sector Strategy

6. Based on the issues identified in the profile, the consultants will prepare a WSS covering resources management and service delivery that targets national goals of sustainable growth and poverty reduction and reflects the constraints related to increasing competition for water. The WSS will identify how the emerging issues can be addressed both in terms of water resources management and more efficient service delivery within each water subsector. It will also provide guidance on the interlinkages and balance between infrastructure development and policy and institutional reforms, allocation of scarce financial resources, and the regulatory, planning, and operational framework necessary to achieve sustained growth. The WSS will need to highlight alternative scenarios based on such variables, as the capacity of the Government to raise domestic resources and the influence of major planned multipurpose water resources projects.

7. Key aspects to be addressed under the WSS include:

(i) improvement in information and data systems on which to base management and investment decisions;

(ii) stakeholder participation in project planning and implementation;

(iii) institutional aspects of water resources management and water service delivery including the mandates of concerned agencies and their accountability, autonomy, organizational structure, transition arrangements, and capacity for planning, implementation and management;

(iv) enhancements to the legal and regulatory framework for resource management and service provision;


(v) improvements in water resource system operation and forecasting systems;

(vi) efficiency improvements in service delivery; (vii) pricing policies, subsidies and market distortions; (viii) decentralization, particularly community management and

gender considerations in rural infrastructure (irrigation, drainage, and rural water supply);

(ix) the process and criteria used to identify prospective water sector projects, the procedures leading up to their inclusion in the Government’s development plan, coordination in subsequent processing of pipeline projects between provincial and federal agencies, ~nd recommendations for a more strategic planning approach;

(x) the balance between urban and rural investment in water projects based on considerations of economic efficiency, balanced regional development, and poverty reduction;

(xi) the future role of private sector financing and private-public sector financing partnerships;

(xii) detailed proposals for institutional strengthening and capacity-building programs and modalities; and

(xiii) recommendations on criteria for screening and prioritizing proposed water development projects.

C. Medium-term Investment Plan for the Rural Water Sector

8. The MTIP is intended to provide guidance for investment decisions in the rural water sector (later expanded to include all of the water sector) for the period until 2005 (later changed to 2011, in line with other initiatives in the water sector in Pakistan). Based on the framework and criteria established under the WSS, the consultants will prepare an MTIP that defines priority investment packages comprising infrastructure development and rehabilitation,’ policy support, institutional development and capacity building. The MTIP will reflect the country’s development goals and policies and strategies of the Bank and other aid agencies on natural resources. It will be based on two alternative scenarios regarding finance availability. (This was subsequently changed to be a prioritisation of investments rather than differing scenarios). It will be


structured to provide the rationale, objectives, and scope of the proposed program together with verifiable indicators of achievement. Brief project profiles will be provided for investment and TA support.


2 Annex 2: Considerations for Private Sector Participation in Urban Water Supply & Sanitation in Pakistan

2.1 Lessons from KWSB Urban water supply and sanitation have traditionally been provided by public sector organisations through the municipalities, special purpose authorities or corporate bodies. In Karachi drinking water and sanitation has been supplied since 1983 by the Karachi Water and Sewerage Board (KWSB), taking over from earlier but similar organisations. In the past, this organisation has received loans and grants from various donor agencies (WB, ADB, OEFC, CDC and others) to improve its physical and financial performance.

Notwithstanding all these efforts, KWSB remained a poorly performing, loss making venture. Karachi’s bulk water supply is only enough to support 66% of the city’s population. The remaining population depends on water vendors who get the water from broken mains, tubewells and wells, hydrants and riverbeds. The vendors charge Rs 7 and more per gallon.

Among the causes of the poor performance of KWSB are:

• political influence in management and staffing resulting in overstaffing with inappropriately trained employees,

• a difficult labour union environment, • widespread theft of water due to the connivance of water

vendors, local political leaders and KWSB staff, • poor recovery of bills, especially from government water users.

In 1994, the World Bank initiated investigations into the possibilities of solving the KWSB’s problems and in alleviating the financial pressures of the Sindh Government stemming from the outstanding loans.


Consultants were appointed and produced a feasibility study on private sector participation in KWSB in 19981. This report was approved, with the proposed procedure for privatisation consisting of three phases. The first phase covers the development of the most appropriate PSP strategy, which has been completed. The second phase consists of preparatory work and has been presented in the feasibility report. The third phase is implementation, but it has been delayed for various economic and political reasons.

During the second phase, an extensive media campaign was launched to muster support for the upcoming privatisation. Norman Ahmed and M. Sohail2 interviewed many stakeholders regarding their opinion. The expectations of privatisation included:

• privatisation would put an end to political interference, overstaffing, mismanagement, theft of water and other forms of corruption,

• better service for the bill-paying citizens; • lower water rates for low-income localities who now depend on

expensive and poor quality drinking water supplied by water vendors.

The expressed fears of privatisation included:

• massive redundancy of staff and resistance from unions, • substantial increase in water tariff (20% per year for the first 4

years and 10% during the following two years) resulting in it becoming unaffordable for lower income consumers (who now depend on even more expensive water from vendors!),

• no significant increase in service level during the initial years, since the available amount of water would not increase and no major investments were foreseen,

• no improvement in wastewater collection and treatment, since financial return on sewerage is low,

1 Banque Paribas/Sir William Halcrow & Partners Ltd (1998): Private Sector Participation in KWSB 2 Based on: Norman Ahmed and M. Sohail (2000): Privatisation of KWSB, City Press


• resistance from the stakeholders operating the private water market,

• social unrest in the case of non-paying consumers being denied further service.

In a recent visit to KWSB, it emerged that financial performance has improved to the extent that operating costs are almost covered by receipts. Non-payment of bills by government departments was still a major problem.

2.2 Considerations for Private Sector Participation A Privatisation Commission has been set up in Pakistan to assess the potential of private sector participation. At present, it does not specifically pursue privatisation efforts in the domestic water and sanitation sub-sector. Looking toward consideration of this sub-sector, several important points are discussed below.

As an alternative to attempting full-scale privatisation of complete water companies, other, partial possibilities could be attempted to involve the private sector in water supply and sanitation. These possibilities include:

• development and operation of water production, e.g. in the case of Karachi the construction and operation of long-distance raw water pipelines to bring Indus water to the city and subsequent treatment of this water on a contract basis,

• provision and operation of sewage treatment works on a contract basis,

• management contracts for billing and revenue collection.

In order to prepare water companies (WASAs and organisations such as KWSB) for full-scale privatisation in the future, these organisations have to be transformed into commercially oriented units, with accounts prepared in accordance with internationally accepted accounting principles. These organisations should be geared towards the commercial provision of services to the formal economy: households in legal urban areas with in-house connections, commercial and industrial water users, and governmental entities. The formal economy can afford


and should pay water charges sufficient to cover both capital and O&M costs for water supply and sanitation services. External costs increases, e.g. caused by rising energy costs, should be passed on to them. In return, the formal sector should be able to count on a service in conformity with drinking water and sanitation standards set by the Government.

The provision of water and sanitation to low-income areas could be regarded as a social service provided by the water companies, for which the company is paid for by the provincial government from general tax revenue on a contractual basis.


3 Annex 3: Regulatory Frameworks for Private Sector Participation in the Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Sub-Sector

3.1 General If PSP in urban water supply and sanitation becomes widespread, the need for some form of regulation will eventually arise, especially to prevent abuse of monopoly power by water supply companies. In the UK, for example, there is a Water Regulator. In the Philippines, a Local Water Utilities Administration (LWUA) was set up in the 1970s to support and monitor smaller-scale urban water supply and sanitation development. This is discussed in detail below.

In general, public regulation of water and wastewater services falls under three main categories:

(i) Public health monitoring and control; (ii) Environmental monitoring and control; and (iii) Financial and operational performance monitoring and

control. In developed countries, these functions are normally supported by a wide-ranging structure of legislation and regulations. On the other hand, many developing countries are at different stages in developing an appropriate legislative and regulatory framework. Recent international experience in many developing countries indicates the need for careful planning of the whole privatisation process within a regulatory framework which is compatible with the legal and institutional structure of each country.

The provision of water and wastewater services, particularly in the urban context, is essentially a monopoly function, making government regulation both justifiable and inevitable. This is highlighted when the private sector becomes involved in the provision of water and wastewater services. Nations require that basic services (e.g. water, sewerage, electricity, gas and others), which are fully or partially


privatised should be effectively regulated and monitored on behalf of society in general, to avoid the potential excesses which monopoly positions engender. In order to combine the potential benefits of private sector participation and to counter adverse monopolistic tendencies, governments have established regulatory frameworks to provide control and supervision.

In theory, regulation of the private sector can or will:

• Control monopolistic tendencies; • Improve economic efficiency by encouraging natural monopolies

to perform at a socially optimal level; • Maintain balance between the potentially competing interests of

government, regulated utilities and consumers. Within this context, there is a need for:

• A clear regulatory framework reinforced by effective legislation; • Regulatory authority to be autonomous and independent, to

promote effective and efficient regulation; • Creation of trust and confidence among consumers and the

regulated utilities; • Control and monitoring to promote: fair tariffs and charges,

service improvements and efficiency; • Promotion of incentives to encourage sustained investment and

improved performance; • Avoidance of overbearing interference. New initiatives in the promotion of private sector participation in the water sector involve a steep learning curve for both the regulated companies and the new regulation authorities, in order to define and operate an effective working relationship, which will ensure equitable and efficient provision of services. A realistic regulatory framework will differ from country to country. Some important ground rules include the following:

• Learning from international experience; • Realistic assessment of existing institutions and governmental

effectiveness;


• Creating the appropriate regulatory framework in terms of legislation and regulations;

• Establishing an independent autonomous regulatory authority which is independent of the main organs of government;

• Appointing a “Regulator” (i.e. the Chief Executive of the regulatory authority) with the experience and status to fulfil the objectives and mission of the new body. He or she should be supported by a well-trained and dedicated staff.

Regulatory models and institutional arrangements cannot be easily transferred from one country to another. The necessary regulatory systems need to be tailored to the particular circumstances in each country, so as to take account of the legal, institutional, social and economic framework. The following key issues need to be considered and evaluated in developing a regulatory framework for private sector participation:

• Definition of the role and the objectives of the regulatory authority;

• Definition and structure of the regulatory authority and the financial mechanisms which will allow the authority to fulfil its regulatory functions;

• Definition and structure of the incentives and regulatory instruments;

• Institutional development and technical training; • Strategy and policy for maintaining the independence of the

regulatory authority (i.e., from political interests and experienced private utility companies);

• Strategy and policy to maintain the legitimacy and openness of the regulatory decision process;

• Strategy and policy for effective legal enforcement of regulatory decisions.

All these factors need to be built into the enabling legislation and the subsequent establishment of the regulatory authority.

3.2 International Experience Examples of the regulatory structure for the privatised water industry in the United Kingdom, Chile and Argentina are given below. Other


countries where privatisation is prominent in the water sector (mainly in the larger cities) include: France, Philippines, Malaysia, Mexico and a number of countries in Africa and Central and Eastern Europe. For many, one of the main attractions of private sector participation is the direct access to investment resources and expertise.

United Kingdom: Most of the large water and sewerage companies in England and Wales were privatised in 1989 (note: in Scotland, local government is still responsible for water and sewerage services). The regulatory functions are vested in the Office of Water Services (Ofwat), which is a government department responsible for ensuring that the privatised companies deliver good quality and efficient services at a fair price. Ofwat, under the leadership of the appointed Director-General, has the authority under the Water Industry Act 1991 to function as the independent economic regulator of the water industry and the protector of consumer interests. The Director-General is directly responsible to Parliament.

The main aim of Ofwat is to regulate the water and sewerage companies in a fair and open manner so that they continue to deliver improved service quality and value for money. The Regulator is generally required to:

• Protect consumer interests and standards of service; • Set price limits for water and sewerage bills, but also allow the

companies to earn a reasonable rate of return on their capital. Major reviews of prices and investment programmes are conducted every five years;

• Ensure that water and sewerage companies carry out their legal responsibilities;

• Promote economy and efficiency; • Encourage the development of effective competition; • Publish information on the comparative performance of all the

companies; • Publish information which encourages companies to improve

performance; • Advise the Government on possible mergers involving water and

sewerage companies;


• Deal with and settle complaints and disputes involving customers, developers, landowners and the water companies.

Ofwat’s annual budget is about US$ 17 million (1998/99), which is paid for out of the licence fees, which the water and sewerage companies pay to the Government.

Other key players in the regulation of the water industry in England and Wales are:

• Department of Environment, Transport and the Regions - general responsibility for the legal structure of the water industry and how it is regulated;

• Drinking Water Inspectorate - responsible for monitoring drinking water quality in accordance with UK legislation and the Drinking Water Directives of the European Union;

• Environment Agency - responsible for implementing Government policy and enforcing legislation to protect and improve the environment. With regard to the water industry, the agency monitors, protects and improves the quality of rivers, estuaries and coastal waters.

In general, Ofwat (the regulator) has performed effectively in carrying out its statutory functions and has maintained a good working relationship with the general public (the consumer) and the private companies. One important factor is that the Regulator has maintained a clearly independent and autonomous status, which is generally free of political interference.

Chile: The institutional design and content of the regulatory framework for the potable water and wastewater sector were established before private sector participation was initiated. The preparatory process benefited from the experience of privatisation in the electricity and telecommunications sectors during the early 1980s. In 1989, the Superintendencia de Servicios Sanitarias (SSS) was established as an autonomous decentralised agency and linked administratively to the Ministry of Public Works. The Chief Executive is appointed by the President, with a staff of about 100, and annual operating costs are


covered by the national budget. The agency’s prime responsibilities are to:

• Grant concessions for water supply and sewerage services; • Define tariff regulations; • Monitor compliance through norms and technical standards. Within this framework, the main characteristics of the Chilean regulatory regime are:

(a) Clear separation of the regulatory and operating functions; (b) Explicit definition of an appropriate set of incentives prescribed

by top levels of government; (c) Implementation of a tariff structure based on efficiency criteria

and administrative simplicity. Tariffs are set for five year periods on the basis of the marginal costs for a “model enterprise”;

(d) Application of a defined system of direct subsidies to assist low-income consumers; and

(e) Acceptance of the concept of long-term profitability whereby water companies are expected to achieve a minimum rate of return.

Chile’s regulatory system for the water sector is still evolving as private sector participation is developed further. Experience in the other utility sectors indicates that regulators have had increasing difficulties in: (a) gathering adequate cost data from privatised utilities; (b) striking a realistic negotiating balance, given the increasing economic and political influence of the private companies in the various sectors; (c) limited information and technical capacity of the regulating agencies; and (d) excessive influence of the private companies in the tariff-setting process, which has lead to a significant increase in profits and prevention of efficiency improvements being transferred to the consumer via price reductions. In the face of these difficulties, Chile is still committed to an effective privatisation policy, but more attention is being given to the strengthening of the regulatory framework to ensure that the potential benefits of privatisation are realised by the consumer.

Argentina: The Buenos Aires water and sewerage concession was the first large-scale example of private sector participation in Latin America.


In contrast to the Chile experience, the development of the regulatory system proceeded in parallel with the transition from public to private operation. The regulatory framework defines the basic guidelines under which water and sewerage services are to be provided and prescribes the rights and obligations of the private company (Aguas Argentines- formed by a large French utility company and local partners), the government and consumers with respect to the concession contract. The regulatory authority (Ente Tripartito de Obras y Servicios Sanitarias-ETOSS) became effective in April 1993 with the sole task of monitoring the Buenos Aires concession, with specific focus on: (a) review and approval of expansion, improvement and maintenance projects; (b) review and approval of the tariff structure; and (c) monitoring compliance with agreed investment plans. The ETOSS board of directors has six members with equal representation from central government, the Buenos Aires municipality and the provincial government of Buenos Aires. The agency has a staff of about 110 and is financed by a surcharge of 2.67% on water and sewerage bills. This provides a stable source of finance and an improved degree of autonomy from central government interference.

The Argentinian case is instructive with regard to the early years of the regulatory process and the significant challenges faced by an inexperienced public regulator and an experienced private sector operator. ETOSS had to develop within a short time-frame the necessary institutional and technical capacity with which to match the private concessionaire. Initial relations were complex and tense. The concessionnaire complained of excessive bureaucracy and slow response times, whilst ETOSS countered that information and data provided by concessionaire were “poor, incomplete, and biased”. Procedures and relations have improved with the establishment of explicit guidelines for the provision of information on a regular basis.

In other countries where government decentralisation has taken place (e.g. Central and Eastern Europe, Colombia and others), particularly of many public utility services, financial constraints and institutional weakness have inhibited the ability of local and regional municipalities to regulate and deal with experienced private companies on equal terms. In these circumstances, there is a trend to promote a framework of national principles and guidelines, coupled with regional or local instruments to


resolve specific issues and potential conflicts. For effective and efficient regulation at the local and regional level, a balance is also required between the number of companies to be regulated, the availability and accuracy of comparative data to assess performance, and the costs of regulation.

Recent international experience among developing countries indicates the following general lessons:

• The regulatory framework needs to be adapted to the unique institutional structure in each country. Regulatory models cannot easily be transferred from one country to another; more attention should be given to the realistic assessment of actual institutions and government effectiveness.

• Key issues are the type, quality and structure of incentives and instruments to be used in the regulatory process in order to create a fair balance between the consumer and the private sector companies.

• Creation of a regulatory framework does not guarantee effective regulation.

• Institutional strengthening and technical training will be key factors in establishing the capacity to administer an effective regulatory framework.

• Administrative and financial independence are central requirements if a regulatory agency is to function effectively.

• Governments should encourage more local professional companies to participate in the water sector. Currently, the international market is dominated by a few large companies, which inhibits competition and the tendency to focus on large urban centres. This is particularly important in Pakistan where, at least at present, large international companies may be reluctant to invest because of governance problems and where there may be a strong need for the development of smaller-scale piped water supply systems.

• Governments need to develop an innovative regulatory framework with incentives to attract private investment to small cities and towns.

Finally, in many developing countries “independent” regulation is difficult


to achieve unless there are strong safeguards and a willingness to limit political interference. For private sector participation to be effective in the water sector, what will become increasingly important is not whether a regulatory agency is really independent, but whether government can guarantee, formalise and institutionalise its commitments to consumers and investors. Some of the safeguards put forward to promote regulatory independence are:

• fixed terms for regulators, to provide security of tenure; • independent and secure source of funding for the agency; • a requirement of high professional qualifications for appointments

to the regulatory agency; and • high standards of transparency and information disclosure.


4 Annex 4: Private Sector Participation in the Power Sector in Pakistan

4.1 Background As long ago as 1985 the Government of Pakistan started to encourage the private sector to participate in the power sector. Detailed policies were announced in 1992 regarding power generation, and the Private Power Cell was created to evaluate proposals from prospective independent power producers.

In 1994, a new power policy was announced and the Private Power and Infrastructure Board was created. This Board provides a one window facility to investors in the field of power generation. The new policies consisted of a set bulk tariff expressed in $US, freedom to select technology and fuel, and a guarantee of the performance of public sector utilities and fuel suppliers. This package attracted a good response and nineteen thermal power generation projects with a total net capacity of 3,454 MW were signed. These projects mainly consisted of oil and gas fired plants, and were mainly based on imports.

To further encourage hydropower, a Hydel Power Policy was announced in 1995. Under this policy, the provinces were given the major roles of site selection and bid evaluation. The Private Power and Infrastructure Board was involved for processing of the Security Package.

To promote fair competition in the power industry and to protect the rights of consumers, producers and sellers of electricity, in 1997 the Government enacted the Regulation of Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electric Power Act. Under this act the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) was established with the expectation that this organisation would provide investor confidence by ensuring reasonable returns on investment and that it would aid in the rationalisation of electricity rates. NEPRA would do so through its mandate to licence power generation, transmission and distribution activities.


In 1998, the power policy was changed again to remove a number of noted shortcomings3. The policy now treats thermal and hydel on an equal footing, puts more emphasis on the use of local fossil fuels (coal) and hydropower and encourages the use of locally manufactured equipment and machinery. Another objective of the 1998 policy is to obtain the lowest possible tariff through a transparent competitive bidding process.

Under this policy, WAPDA would revert to its original role as an organisation responsible for the maintenance of dams, the building of additional dams on the main rivers and a generator of electricity from these dams.

Power generation, transmission and distribution was formerly undertaken by KESC for 1.4 million customers in and around Karachi and by WAPDA for about 10 million customers through eight Area Electricity Boards (now Power Companies) for the rest of the country.

4.2 Current Situation The Government of Pakistan has launched a comprehensive privatisation programme through the Privatisation Commission. This programme aims at a gradual transition of the power system from integrated, state-owned utilities (WAPDA and KESC) to a decentralised system consisting of separate generation, transmission and distribution entities with substantial private ownership and management, operating in a competitive commercial environment. All future investments in power generation, transmission and distribution facilities would become market driven and of no direct concern to the Government.

The existing generation units and the already committed additions to capacity in the private and public sector are expected to meet the future demand up to 2002/03. The total power demand for 2008 is expected to range between 19,000 and 25,500 MW. The shortfall in capacity, including provisions for seasonal variation in hydropower production and adequate reserve margins, is expected to range between 5,000 and 8,500 MW.

3 Government of Pakistan: Policy for New Private Independent Power Projects, July 1998


In view of the long gestation time of power plants, particularly those based on indigenous coal and hydro, work on new power projects must be started in the near future. Hydel projects would be implemented on a Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) basis, to be transferred to the Province in which they are situated at the end of the concession period. Thermal (coal) projects would be built on a Build-Own-Operate (BOO) basis. The tariff would comprise an energy purchase price and a capacity purchase price component with adequate provisions for escalation.

There has been a very poor response from the private sector to the solicitation of bids by the NWFP Government for the two Hydro power Projects of the 124 MW Allai Khwar and the 70 MW Khan Khwar Projects. Only one party participated in the process for both the projects. The bids were returned unopened and it was decided to re-invite the bids at a later stage.

The energy policy announced in 1998 was ineffective for the following reasons:

• The basis of selection was a minimum levelized tariff without any regular capacity payments to cater for fixed costs such as debt servicing, fixed O&M and return on equity.

• Sponsors were required to assume the hydrological risks for hydroelectric projects.

• Blanket exemptions from duties and taxes were not provided, which were allowed under the 1994 policy and which still apply to the private thermal power stations.

• The process for selection of the private sector sponsor was made very difficult and lengthy based on International Competitive Bidding (ICB).

• Selection of a private sector sponsor on the basis of unsolicited proposals was made almost impossible by imposing conditions such as the requirement to carry out a detailed feasibility study by the sponsor at his cost and then handing it over to GOP to invite bids on the basis of this study.

• The concept of one window operation was totally ignored in this policy; the private sector sponsors were left to shuttle between the provincial and federal authorities.


• There was lack of coordination between the federal and provincial authorities and their roles were not clearly defined in the policy.

• The GOP did not develop standardized Security Package Agreements.

The 1998 Policy is under review. Due to political constraints in developing public sector hydropower plants and lack of coordination between Federal and Provincial Governments regarding development of private sector hydro power plants, their development at this stage is quite uncertain.

In the power sector, the Privatisation Commission is presently working on the privatisation of the Karachi Electricity Supply Corporation, the Faisalabad Electricity Supply Company and Jamshoro Power Co Ltd.


5 Annex 5: Regulatory and Economic Instruments for Pollution Control

5.1 The International Picture and Lessons Learned The most important aspects of regulations for pollution control and environmental management are the need for a strong legal and institutional framework, the technical capacity to implement such measures and a participatory approach, and the substantial costs of most forms of regulation.

Despite the extensive international literature on economic instruments, even in high-income countries the predominant pollution control system is still Command and Control (C&C), supplemented by awareness raising and other measures, rather than more sophisticated systems based on economic instruments. USA and possibly Canada are the only countries with a fully functioning pollution permit trading system, and so far this has been applied mainly for air and sulphur dioxide (SO2) rather than water. The Polluter Pays Principle (PPP) is applied only in its most basic form of the polluter having to incur the costs required to meet specified emission standards, rather than anything more sophisticated. This lack of progress in introducing other economic instruments reflects the major practical complexities involved in their implementation.

Within the C&C concept, however, many high-income countries have evolved a relatively flexible and enlightened pollution control system based on consultation, a public sector-private sector partnership approach and an integrated mix of different measures. As noted by TH Tietenberg in his Economic Instruments for Environmental Regulation (1991), the Netherlands and Japan, for example, have been very successful in developing voluntary agreements (“industrial branch agreements”) with industries. Under this system, enforcement is regarded as only a last resort measure, the emphasis being on voluntary compliance. Some developing countries are moving this way. Inducing a change in attitude and behaviour on the part of polluters is a key part of this process. Experience generally shows that a degree of consent from the polluters is necessary for effective pollution control.


In the same vein, a ‘carrot and stick’ policy is the most effective, with incentives (usually financial) to polluters to reduce their pollution emissions as well as controls to force them to do so. India has this system. Public pressure, through publicity campaigns, the ‘shaming’ of heavy polluters (e.g. the Indonesian colour coding system) and other measures, and private and NGO lawsuits against polluters, can be more effective than Government regulation, as experience in India has shown. Many firms, especially smaller firms, cannot afford the scale of investment required for adequate pollution control. Financial incentives enable them to do so and also facilitate their acceptance of the control system.

Pollution levels or charges are applied in various developing countries, such as India, China, Indonesia and Thailand. Ideally, these should be variable with the level of pollution generated and the cost of the damage caused, but in practice, they are often fixed charges (e.g. the Water Cess paid by industries in India). So far, they have been used largely to raise revenue for environmental purposes rather than to directly induce polluters to reduce their pollution emission levels. In China, however, pollution levies are based on actual discharges (Clear Water, Blue Skies: China’s Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997), and in the Netherlands the charges are based on the costs of treating the polluted water.

There are serious difficulties in pollution control of small-scale industries (e.g. tanneries), because of their large number, often scattered distribution, their limited financial resources, technical knowledge and environmental awareness, and the highly competitive business environment in which they operate.

Constraints to pollution control measures in developing countries include: low willingness and ability to pay for environmental improvement, public finance constraints, institutional, legal and cultural constraints, capital scarcity and high discount (interest) rates, and concerns about effects on competitiveness.

Despite the limited worldwide progress made with emissions trading, “the emissions-trading programme in the USA has improved upon the C&C approach. The documented cost savings are large and the


flexibility provided has been important” (T H Tietenberg, 1991). Much of the permit trading activity in the USA has involved large corporations. Emissions-trading is less applicable to smaller pollution sources, because the transaction costs are sufficiently high that only large trades can absorb them without jeopardising the benefits from trade. For this reason pollution, charges are likely to be a more appropriate instrument for smaller polluters.

5.2 The Need for Pollution Control Economic Instruments Using the term in its broadest sense, economic instruments can be regarded as an essential feature of any viable pollution control system. The Polluter Pays Principle is central even to the most basic C&C system, and financial incentives to polluters can be regarded as essential for the widespread adoption of pollution control measures, especially by smaller firms. If pollution control is accepted as a basic need, then so must be the use of economic instruments.

At the same time, however, a proper balance must be maintained between the costs and benefits of pollution control. Attainment of complete pollution control is not affordable even for the richest countries. A pragmatic approach which takes due account of costs as well as benefits, such as the UK BATNEEC (Best Available Technique Not Entailing Excessive Cost) concept, is therefore necessary. This is especially applicable to developing countries like Pakistan. It does, however require a detailed knowledge of the costs of pollution control techniques and, ideally, some broad indication of the values of the various benefits produced, such as the output of recycled materials (e.g., chrome from leather processing), the reduced need for water treatment and reduced ill-effects on human health.

5.3 Economic Instrument Options for Pollution Control 5.3.1 General

An appropriate categorisation of pollution control economic instruments is that presented by David Pearce and Kerry Turner in their book ‘Economics of National Resources and the Environment’, the main categories are discussed below.


5.3.2 Market Creation In principle, market creation is an economically highly efficient form of pollution control, in that it should, in theory at least, eventually produce the optimal mix of pollution abatement effort within and between industries. It is, however, a complex and demanding system to set up and run. It requires detailed baseline definition and setting of limits, a system of approving and recording emission credits, offsets and trades amongst permit holders, and careful monitoring. Management costs can therefore be high. Obstacles to its wider adoption include inadequate inventories of pollution emissions and sources and the weakness of monitoring and enforcement systems. It can only work well in a healthy economic system with a minimum of market distortions, and with accountability and transparency as dominating characteristics.

These various constraints explain why tradable permits have so far hardly been adopted outside North America. In view of these constraints, introduction of a system of tradable pollution permits in Pakistan can be regarded as a potential option only for the long-term future. Simpler and less demanding pollution control systems must first become firmly established before such sophisticated mechanisms are brought in.

5.3.3 Product Charges or Taxes Product charges are levied on products of which the production or consumption (use) entail harmful environmental impacts. Examples are pesticides, fertilisers, fuels, tanneries and plastic bags.

Like market creation, this form of pollution control is complex and administratively costly. To be really effective, it requires a very detailed valuation of the environmental costs of the pollution produced by the industries and processes involved, with a large number of different charge rates. Adoption of a simpler and more transparent schedule of rates, more easily understood by the smaller and less sophisticated firms, can easily result in the product tax system being too “blunt” (imprecise) an instrument for internalising firms’ pollution costs. As yet, product taxes have not been widely adopted internationally. User or emission charges are a simpler and more transparent alternative and are in much wider use worldwide.


5.3.4 Subsidies and User and Emission Charges Subsidies, in the form of grants, soft loans and/or tax allowances (e.g., depreciation allowances), can be regarded as an essential feature of any successful pollution control programme in developing countries such as Pakistan. In most such countries, there is limited awareness of or concern about pollution in all but the largest and most prosperous industries. The affordability of pollution control investment is constrained by strong price competition and the small size of firms in many industries.

Under these conditions, some form of subsidy is essential in order to induce firms to control their pollution and to enable them to afford to do so. This is the “carrot” or incentive part of the pollution control equation. It must, however, be complemented by the “stick”, in the form of emission standards, with or without user or emission charges, so that firms are forced to reduce their pollution. Awareness raising and related measures are important means of developing the right attitude to pollution control in the industrial sector.

At present, Pakistan has only one component of the above mix of ‘carrot and stick’ measures, namely the NEQS emission standards. Specific subsidies for pollution control are not available and there are no emission charges. Effective pollution control is unlikely to be achieved without some form of subsidy, except in the large multi-national firms (e.g., the oil and gas industries), which have the necessary resources, expertise and environmental awareness.

Both India and China have large industrial pollution programmes based on the ‘carrot and stick approach. Under the US$330 million World Bank India Industrial Pollution Prevention Project, for example, a large part of the total project cost was earmarked for loans to industry for pollution control investments. Industry is required to meet specified emission standards, but there are no substantial user or emission charges. Instead, industries are required to pay a Water Cess, but this is a relatively crude system involving low levels of fixed charge based at least partly on water consumption rather on pollution emissions (much of India has serious water resource problems).

As described in the World Bank’s Clear Water, Blue Skies report, China has a more advanced system, which includes pollution levies (emission charges) as well as discharge permits and mandatory pollution controls.


These are applied for air pollution as well as water pollution. Of the fees collected, 80% are used for grants and low interest loans (i.e. subsidies for pollution control) and 20% are retained by local environmental protection bureaus to support their administrative and monitoring activities. The pollution levy has several design deficiencies, which, if possible, should be avoided in any such system in Pakistan. These include:

• Pollution fees, established at the national level, are often lower than the marginal costs of abatement, so many industrial polluters choose to remain non-compliant and pay the levy on their excess pollution. This situation is exacerbated by the fact that the levy rates are not indexed for inflation, and local governments are not allowed to make their own adjustments

• Levies are based only on the pollutant which exceeds its standard by the greatest amount, rather than on all pollutants which exceed their standards

• Since levies are applied only on above-standard emissions, they provide no incentive to abate emissions below the standards

Despite these shortcomings, the combination of pollution levies and subsidised loans from the levy and other subsidy programmes has created effective economic incentives for pollution control in China.

A similar approach would appear to be appropriate for Pakistan, although it would take some years to build up to the level of coverage and sophistication of the Chinese system. Steps in the introduction of such a system could be as follows:

Stage 1: Promote effective implementation of existing Provincial Environmental Agency (EPA) pollution control standards and regulations, but in combination with (i) an awareness raising campaign and other measures to sensitise both the industries themselves and civil society as a whole to the need for pollution control and (ii) the provision of subsidies and other measures (eg central waste treatment facilities for small industries such as tanneries) for pollution control. Concentrate initially on new industrial development, as has been the policy in China, because this is easier to control than existing industries.


Permit fees could be introduced sometime during this stage, but these would be for cost recovery purposes, rather than as an economic instrument to reduce pollution.

Stage 2: Introduction of a pollution levy (emissions charge) or user charge system, so that polluters are charged according to the economic cost of the pollution they generate. Ideally, this should be a variable charge system whereby polluters are charged according to the pollution they actually produce, but on practical grounds this would not be feasible for some time. A less flexible system based on fixed charges for different categories and sizes of plant would therefore be more appropriate, at least for the initial years. Over time, the system would be progressively refined to move towards a situation where the charges imposed reflect the true economic costs of the pollution generated. At the same time, the revenues collected would be recycled in the form of subsidies and other financial incentives for improved pollution control.

In parallel with the above stages, the Government should assist industry to identify opportunities for re-use and recycling of usable polluting substances (chrome from leather processing is a good example) and from modification of industrial process to reduce pollution levels and production costs. In developed countries, considerable success has been achieved in effecting process improvements, which meet both these objectives.

An integrated approach covering other forms of pollution (e.g., air pollution) as well as water pollution would be essential. Concentration on only one form of pollution could result in industries altering their effluent “mix” by increasing other effluent loads while minimising those categories of effluent on which the control effort is being emphasised.