Pandemic PlanningA country, state and city concern

Dr. Gregory N. LarkinDirector Corporate Health Services

YIPES! Or YAWN?

Treatment and supply availability

In a pandemic, most businesses and health care facilities will be impacted

Medical care/supplies will be harder to obtain

Home supplies will be harder to obtain

Medication (Tamiflu) to potentially treat influenza is currently in short supply and may not be readily available in your area

It is not yet known for sure if this medication will be effective

Antibiotics to treat secondary infections, such as pneumonia, may also be in short supply

Key points (worst case)

When the first human to human case presents, it will take 3 months to encircle the globe

A community will go through 3-4 cycles each lasting 4-6 weeks causing 20-30% population infection

• Unknown effectiveness of present antiviral agents• Effective vaccine will take 3-6 months to produce

Employers need to prepare to:• Continue critical processes with a reduced work force (e.g. insulin)• Reduce potential infectious opportunities

– Socialization and contact reduction

Employees should consider a modest stockpile of home supplies

WHO Pandemic Phases

What can we expect?

Lessons learned from epidemiology and the current situation in Asia

1. maximum recorded interval between pandemics is 39 years – it could be soon (but it remains unpredictable)

2. the likely origin will be SE Asia, but we can’t say for sure

3. global spread will be rapid – we either prepare now, or risk being caught by surprise

4. several epidemic waves; first may be ‘milder’ than subsequent ones – sustainability and resilience will be key issues

What can we expect?

4. excess mortality and morbidity difficult to predict but may be high (but it doesn’t follow that the next pandemic will be like 1918)

5. overall population clinical attack rate is likely to be 25-33%

6. there may be a shift from the current pattern of disease, towards younger age groups in terms of severity and mortality – with obvious implications for the business workforce

7. impacts on health services and business continuity are likely to be very considerable

What do we know and need to do TODAY?

Known:• WHO Phase three• Potential of community being 40% absence• Adverse impact on both community and business

operations

Need to do:• Prevention, Response, Business Continuity and

Communication

Prevention Overview

Medically sound and consistent education

What methods in place for world and community tracking

Influenza characteristics (prevention, spread, treatment)

Personal planning elements

Worksite planning

Prevention- Personal Planning

Due to possible community service breakdown;

Consider stockpiling those domestic items of importance (e.g. medications, water, food (include pets, etc.), cleaning supplies)

Understand the importance of ‘social distancing’

Travel, shopping, social gatherings

Understand the importance of containment

Hard surface cleaning, disposal of tissue, etc.

Prevention- Work Site Planning

Reduce the spread of infection by:• Encourage ill employees to remain at home• Consider ‘screening’ protocols employees/visitors at the

door• Facility promotion of frequent hand washing and proper

disposal of tissues. Stockpile supplies.• Alternative methods for face to face meetings- Work with IT

Ascertain critical vendors pandemic preparation

Response

Engage prevention protocols• Entrance screening (ear thermometers, masks)• Close cafeterias (box lunches)• Hand washing stations/supplies• Isolation protocols (on site medical facilities)• Disinfectant procedures (cleaning/disposal)• Telecommunication where possible• Limit travel of all kinds

Social distancing at home and at work

Social distancing refers to methods to reduce the frequency and closeness of contact between people

Generally, social distancing refers to mass gatherings of people, but the same methods can be applied to the home setting

Social distancing at home and work

When around people who are coughing or sneezing, keep your distance by at least 3 feet

Avoid meeting people face to face: use the telephone or have web conferences

Avoid any unnecessary travel

Avoid crowded places

Avoid public transportation

Avoid crowded restaurants

Social distancing at home and work

Stock up on basic items to minimize exposure to public places

Shop at smaller stores with smaller lines and fewer people

Shop at off hours to avoid large crowds

Arrange to pay bills by mail, online or over the phone

Cancel or postpone family gatherings, outings or trips

If you cannot avoid crowds, minimize the amount of time you spend around people

Business Continuity

Expect 40-50% temporary reduction in work force• Ill or caring for ill or guardianship of children

Identify Business Critical Processes• Core business needs including vendors

– Materials to be stockpiled or expanded inventory

• Identify non critical processes– Employees encouraged to remain home

• Identify what, if any, critical business can be telecommuned– Tasks and resources needed

• Develop Human Resource benefit policies for absence• Create redundant personnel and resource support

Communication

Prepare now:

Resources to provide credible education regarding• Influenza tracking• Work site protocols (screening, hand washing, etc.)• Business critical/non critical criteria and application• Benefit implications for related absences• Recommended work place and home supplies

Summary

Pandemic or other broad disaster merits planning

The current viral threat is real although when, not if, a global spread is unknown

The worst case will impact 40% to 50% of the population directly or indirectly

All community and business services could be severely challenged

Today- Start actions for Prevention, Response, Business Continuity and Communication.