PANEL IV: Postsecondary Attainment and EarningsJust the Facts, Ma’am: Postsecondary Education and Labor

Market Outcomes in the U.S.”Harry Holzer, Georgetown University & American Institutes for

Research/ CALDERErin Dunlop, American Institutes for Research / CALDER

“Heterogeneous Paths Through College: Detailed Patterns and

Relationships with Graduation and Earnings”Rodney J. Andrews, University of Texas at Dallas/CALDER

Jing Li, University of TulsaMichael F. Lovenheim, Cornell University

Postsecondary Attainment and Earnings: General Thoughts

• H&D provide a reminder of just how dim the employment prospects are for those who fail to get a college degree, and Andrews et al. show that the path to college completion can also be quite important (more important than I would have guessed)

• Value of different sources of data; national data illustrates long-term trends, state longitudinal data allows for more in-depth exploration over shorter time-span– Connecting the two papers: could the seemingly strange finding of

math score on AA attainment (Holzer and Dunlop) be related to transfer behavior?

• Both studies careful not to over-interpret findings– Generally great, but a bit more storyline (expectations) would also be

helpful

Holzer and Dunlop• We are used to thinking that U.S. progress on education has

stalled, but this isn’t really true for attainment– Huge progress for African Americans and Hispanics in reduction of

dropout rates and increase in BA (larger % increase over time for Blacks than whites in BA attainment)

• Specification: Does it matter if race/gender is interacted with measures of proficiency in earnings models?

• Why is the GED becoming less popular?– Is it really? (some of the SIPP results jump around)– Are employers reading Heckman?

• Understanding “Other” major; doubling from 1990 to 2001– Is it the case that there is a proliferation of new college majors?– Is this good or bad?

Andrews, Li, & Lovenheim

• 32% of students transfer at least once (and this is conservative)!– Not just expected types

• More explanation for transfer behavior– Any way to simplify, transferring up or down?– Some type of model: is it about the fit?

• Change in major/credit areas? Distance from home?

• Arguably most interesting type of transfer is from 4YC (flagship in particular) to CC– Might also look at AA attainment– Worth noting how CC transfers grads do relative to CC grads

• Lots of potentially interesting work on human capital acquisition looking at timing of transfers/credit accumulation at different types of institutions