Paper 2_Food Security during calamities.pdf

8/14/2019 Paper 2_Food Security during calamities.pdf

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Human Security

Military SecurityCapability of a Nation State to defend itselfagainst and/or avoid military aggression.

Border ConflictsTerrorism

CoupsRiotsInvasionBattles and Wars


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Human Security

Non-Military Security

Cyber Security

Environmental SecurityWater SecurityFood Security Agriculture is Life

Energy SecurityHealth Security


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Food Security

Do we learn a lesson from Food Crisis 2007-2008? Drastic price increases

World price increase 2006 2008; then 2010-2011:

Example (2007-2008):Rice - 217%Wheat 136%

Corn 125%Soybeans 107%


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There is no love more sincere than the love for

food


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Natural disasters and threats

Tornadoes Forest Fires * Floods * Blizzards Cyclones/Typhoon/

Hurricanes * Heat Wave

* affecting Malaysia

Tsunami * Volcanic Eruption Earthquakes Mudslides Drought * Hail Pests and Diseases *


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Natural disasters

385 major disasters in 2010:

China, India, Philippines, US and Indonesia: worst affected

297 000 deaths

217 million people adversely affected

US $124 billion in economic damages


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2006 2005 Hurricane Katrina

2004 2011

Aceh tsunami Cyclone Nargis


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Natural disasters

Christchurch earthquake 2011

Haiti earthquake 2010

Pakistan Flood 2010

Malaysia?? Johore, East Coast

Floods , 2005


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Trends in n atural disasters and threats

Source: CRED International Disaster Database, 2011


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Trends in natural disasters and threats



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Top 10 affected countries by no. of events, 2010Y= climatological R= geophysical B=hydrological

G= meteorological (CRED 2011)


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Top 10 most important disasters by victims,2010



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Global Climate Change and Natural Disaster

Frequency of heavyprecipitation

events increasing

Tropical cycloneintensity

increasing

Extreme

temperaturesincreasing

More intenseand longer

droughts Area ofseasonally frozenground decreasing

Glaciers andsnow overdecreasing

Sea level rise

Ocean heatcontent

increasing

Tropospherictemperatures

increasing

Surfacetemperatures

increasing

CLIMATE CHANGE


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Serious Effects of Food Crisis

Famine Asia and Africa Political Instability e.g. food riots, unrests

and demonstrations, killings in Haiti(President was dismissed); the Philippines(Rebellion of the Hungry); Ethiopia, Egypt,Indonesia, Pakistan, Mynmar, Yemen,Mozambique, etc.

Economic Depression - inflation


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2008 Food Crisis Scenario in Malaysia

Situation worsened by increase in fuel price,therefore high cost of production of fertilisers andother inputs resulting in farmers income affected.

Increase in price of other food commodities; sugar,flour, beef, chicken, fish, etc.

Increase in Inflation, by 2.5%.


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2008 Food Crisis Senario in Malaysia

Increase in price of food items, especially rice(price almost doubled), animal feed

Rice became less available Malaysia imports 28% rice; particularly from

Thailand, China, Vietnam, India and Pakistan.During food crisis, Thailand and China do not have

enough, while Vietnam and India banned their riceexports.


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Future risks(some examples)

Rise in the frequency and intensity of extremeweather events expected due to climate change

50 million people at risk in 2080 due to stormsurges and landfall typhoons:

10 million people experienced coastal flooding in2005

Rise in urbanization and population densities willadd to the risks


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Natural disaster impacts onagriculture


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Impact on agricultureCereal prices and temperature change

Source: www.cma.gov.cn

l d d l


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Natural disaster damage to agriculture(Asia)

(average per year, 1980-2012)

Country Agriculture, livestock, &irrigation damage

Fisheries damage

Indonesia US$ 224.80 million US$ 510.9 million India US$ 37.51 million US$ 567.8 million

Maldives US$ 11.07 million US$ 25.1 million

Sri Lanka US$ 3.00 million US$ 97.0 million

Pakistan US$ 337.20 million NA

Source: Individual country damage assessment reports, The World Bank


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Natural disaster damage to agriculture(Africa)

COUNTRY DISASTER ESTIMATED VALUE

Dominican Rep. Hurricanes (1995) US $12 million

Grenada Hurricanes (2004) US $36.6 millionGuyana Floods (2005)

Floods (2006)US $54.5 millionUS $22.5 million

Jamaica Hurricanes (1988) JA $1.66 billion

St. Kitts/ Nevis Hurricanes (1995)Hurricanes (2007)

US $15 millionUS $10 million

St. Lucia Hurricanes (2007) US $16.9 million


N t l di t d g i M l i


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Natural disaster damage in Malaysia(1995-2005)

Disaster Damage to Agriculture

Flood RM 50 million/ year (US$ 15million/ year)

Drought RM 20 million/year

Pests and Diseases RM 30 million/year



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Disaster Situations in Thailand (year 1989-2010)

Disasters Numbers(times) PeopleInjured Peoplekilled Agriculturaldamage(million US)

Flood 213 7,896 2,938 3,735.1

Landslide 9 > 500 541 66. 2

Storm 36,024 1,367 842 163.0

Fire 46,986 3,775 1,639 916.7

Tsunami 1 11,775 5,401 225.8

Total 83,233 > 25,313 11,361 5,040.8

Source: Department of the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Ministry of Interior, USA


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Flood Situation in Thailand, 2011

July 2011- January 2012 Affected 65 provinces, 684 districts, 4,086,138households and 13,595,192 people.

Damage on agricultural areas: US$ 11.20 billion ;

4 million ha rice farms110,500 head livestock13,961 roads; 777 drainage ditches;

724 bridges/bridge-necks;231,919 fish/shrimp/clam farms.

Source: Department of the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Ministry of Interior


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Sea Level Rise

Bangladesh Total damage: US$13 million/

year 16% of national

rice production lost

India Total damage: US$ 7 million/ year Inundate and ruined more than 1700 km 2

agricultural land

Source: FAOSTAT, 2010


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Tsunami: Fukushima, Japan(ABARES, 2011)

Direct losses to crops and livestock, and damagesto farm land and production facilities:

US$ 9.5 b

8% of Japanese farm output 14% of rice output 5% of fruit and vegetable

output

Long term damage and effects to health security radiation, etc -- ??

Sou rce: Jap an MOA, Jun e 2011 )


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Way forward/ Solution Policy Revision and Structural Reforms

Longer term stock pile not only in rice Subsidies restructuring

Land utilisation Minimum farm price assurance Farm insurance

Long-term programme and support


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Way forward

Modern food production technologies

Intensive agriculture under controlled environment


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New technologies/approaches Application of GIS technologies:

To analyse data/information from climate models to assessdisaster risks

Such analysis can inform the design of key infrastructure; help insurersassign a price to low-probability risks with high loss potential

Need to make early warning systems more user friendly: Focus on the needs of target audience/communities

More attention on post-disaster issues Reforms to legislation, organisations and policy

E.g.: Establishment of new laws, warning systems in Indonesia after the2004 tsunami

Need reliable estimates of disaster risks to encourage privatesector to invest in risk-transfer tools:

Need reliable and transparent data/information collection andverification with strong public good characteristics


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FUTURE FARMING


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http://gothamgreens.com/our-farm/, www.businessinsider.com/gotham-greens-2011-7#but-theyre-really-a-bargain-on-freshdirect-where-two-packages-go-for-6-18#ixzz1T1Djhfa0


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http://www.greenrightnow.com/weareaustin/2009/05/12/farm-in-a-barrel-raise-fish-and-grow-your-own-organic-vegetables/#more-3707

www.cityscapefarms.com/soillessfarming/

James Rakocy, Donald Bailey, Charlie Shultz and JasonDanaher. 2010. The Status of Aquaponics 2010
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_1/02_ausMurray%20Hallam%20on%20Gardening%20Australia%20.FLV


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Home town farms Stack farm


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Way forward

Sustainable food production

Organic farming

Biofertilizer and bio-pesticide SALM, GAP Precision agriculture Increasing carbon sequestration byincreasing soil organic matter (organicamendment and organic fertilizers)

f


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Way forwardBreeding for Crops Adaptable to Factors of

Climate Change- Develop and produce local breeds and varieties- Maintain great genetic diversity of plant varieties and

animal breeds, particularly for pest and disease tolerance

- Exploit the full potential of biotechnology- Combat bio-terrorism


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Way forward Alternative/ Artificial Foods??

Realise level of Countrys Vulnerability Good Alarm system for helpe.g. USDA Agriculture Disaster Assistance

- Adaptive risk management measures

- Risk transfer approaches


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Agriculture is Life

Documents

Paper 2_Food Security during calamities.pdf